River Avenue Blues

Game 158: Tanaka’s Final Start

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(Brian Blanco/Getty)

Yesterday was a good day. The Yankees won and the Athletics lost, which knocked the magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game down to two. Could clinch tonight! The Yankees need to Mariners to cooperate for that to happen though. Either way, we’re locked into a Yankees vs. A’s Wild Card Game now. It is official.

Masahiro Tanaka is making his final start of the regular season tonight and is looking to rebound following a tough start last time out. He’s sitting on a 3.67 ERA (3.96 FIP) in 152 innings overall and he’s been especially good in the second half, throwing 68.2 innings with a 2.62 ERA (2.81 FIP) since the All-Star break. This might be a Wild Card Game tune-up start tonight! Hopefully it goes well either way. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. DH Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. 2B Neil Walker
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. C Gary Sanchez
8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria
9. CF Brett Gardner

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Tampa Bay Rays
1. RF Mallex Smith
2. 3B Matt Duffy
3. 2B Joey Wendle
4. LF Tommy Pham
5. DH C.J. Cron
6. CF Kevin Kiermaier
7. SS Willy Adames
8. 1B Jake Bauers
9. C Nick Ciuffo

RHP Ryne Stanek

It is hot and sticky and rainy in St. Petersburg today. Sometimes the dome comes in handy. Tonight’s game will begin 7:10pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Didi Gregorius (wrist) saw the doctor today and was given the okay to resume baseball activities. Hooray for that. Gregorius hit in the cage and remains day-to-day. The hope is he can return to the lineup this weekend … Aaron Hicks (hamstring) ran on the treadmill and hit in the cage today. He expects to return to the lineup Friday … Gleyber Torres (groin/hip) is good to go and available today. Aaron Boone is giving him the proverbial one extra day to rest up.

The Yankees would reportedly like to re-sign McCutchen, but the outfield situation is complicated

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(Stephen Brashear/Getty)

In a very short period of time, Andrew McCutchen has become an indispensable Yankee who has been a dominant force in the leadoff spot and given the lineup a real nice shot in the arm down the stretch. McCutchen is hitting .233/.424/.493 (154 wRC+) in 22 games as a Yankee and he’s taken over as the everyday left fielder. He’s been awesome.

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees would like to retain McCutchen beyond this season, assuming they can work out a reasonable contract. What’s reasonable? Who knows. Predicting free agent contracts in this climate is a fool’s errand. McCutchen is an impending free agent and he’ll turn 32 in October, and his best years are behind him, so a massive payday doesn’t figure to be on the horizon.

This year the Yankees very quickly went from having a glut of outfielders to, well, having to trade for McCutchen at the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline. Injuries (Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Jacoby Ellsbury) and trades (Billy McKinney) thinned out the outfield depth chart. Does a reunion with McCutchen make sense? Let’s talk it out.

1. The outfield picture is complicated. Going forward, we know two things about the outfield. One, Judge will be in right field. And two, Aaron Hicks will be in center field, for at least one more season. (Hicks will be a free agent after 2019.) Other than that? Things are really up in the air. Some outfield questions, in no particular order:

  • How much do the Yankees want to play Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield?
  • Will Frazier be healthy next year? If yes, where does he play?
  • Will Ellsbury be healthy next year? If yes, where does he fit in?
  • What happens with Brett Gardner?

At midseason, I thought the Yankees would exercise Gardner’s option for next season and bring him back — it’s a $12.5M option with a $2M buyout, so it’s a net $10.5M decision — but that won’t happen now. Gardner’s had a terrible second half and has been displaced by McCutchen. He’s still a heart and soul Yankee though. Would it be at all surprising if the Yankees decline the option and bring Gardner back on a smaller contract? Nah.

I think the Yankees are totally comfortable playing Stanton in left on an everyday basis, if necessary. He spent a lot of time at DH this year because he’s been fighting that hamstring problem pretty much the entire second half. Frazier and Ellsbury? Really tough to count on those guys given their injuries. I don’t think the Yankees could pencil either into the 2019 roster right now, even as a bench guy.

So yeah, the Yankees have some outfield decisions to make this winter. They can let Gardner walk and re-sign McCutchen, and roll with a three-man (Judge, Stanton, McCutchen) rotation in the corner outfield and DH spots, and that’d work well. What happens then with Frazier? And Ellsbury? I dunno. I know this much: The more good players, the better. The Yankees can make McCutchen fit.

(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty)

2. What is a reasonable contract, exactly? Three years ago McCutchen would’ve been a $150M player. Maybe even a $200M player. He was a perennial MVP caliber player from 2012-15 before slipping the last few years. McCutchen hasn’t had an Andruw Jones collapse, but he’s clearly no longer the player he was in his prime. He’s still quite good though.

The free agent market right now is not the free agent market we watched the last 10-15 years. Things changed last offseason and teams shunned veterans, even good ones. Jay Bruce getting three years and $39M going into his age 31 season looks like a minor miracle right now. McCutchen will be going into his age 32 season. He certainly has the better track record, but:

  • McCutchen’s contract year: .252/.367/.425 (120 wRC+) and +2.6 WAR
  • Bruce’s contract year: .254/.324/.508 (118 wRC+) and +2.6 WAR

Prior to last offseason, McCutchen’s contract comparables would’ve been guys like Ian Desmond (five years, $70M) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80M) and Dexter Fowler (five years, $82.5M). Does he even get $50M right now? Three years and $45M could end up being a pretty good deal for 32-year-old McCutchen, from his perspective.

McCutchen has a few things going for him that Bruce and others did not last offseason. One, this guy was a true star at one point, and that still has some appeal. Two, he remains a good on-base player with some pop who fights tooth and nail every at-bat. Three, he’s healthy and durable. McCutchen has played 150+ games eight times in the last nine years, and the one time he didn’t, he played 146.

And four, McCutchen has an excellent reputation within the game. He’s a good player on the field, he’s long been considered an excellent teammate in the clubhouse, and he has a squeaky clean image off the field. McCutchen’s a great ambassador for baseball and he does a ton of work in the community. Teams want players like him in their organization. That could factor into his contract this offseason.

For the Yankees, money shouldn’t be an issue this winter. By my quick count the Yankees are shedding about $55M in payroll after the season, so even if ownership says they can’t go over the $206M luxury tax threshold next year, there’s still money to spend. The Yankees can afford McCutchen. It’s just a question of how they want to build their roster and what other moves they’re considering, such as …

3. What about that Harper guy? At this point there is no sense in trying to forecast Bryce Harper’s upcoming contract. It is going to be so convoluted with opt-outs and escalators and option years. All I know is it will be very rich. Harper turns only 26 in October and he’s a generational talent — his “down” season is .246/.393/.498 (135 wRC+) — and anyone with half a brain would take his next three years over McCutchen’s next three years.

If the Yankees decide to pursue Harper, then McCutchen gets put on the back-burner. Heck, the same applies to Manny Machado, because signing Machado could mean Miguel Andujar winds up in the outfield. It could be that McCutchen is Plan B for potential Harper suitors, and he’ll have to wait for a contract. Or it could be that a team that knows it can’t afford Harper will act quickly to sign McCutchen before the price potentially goes up.

We don’t know whether the Yankees will pursue Harper. When CC Sabathia became a free agent, everyone knew the Yankees would go after him. When Jason Giambi and Mike Mussina became free agents, everyone knew the Yankees would go after them. I don’t sense get that vibe with Harper. It’s possible the Stanton trade took Harper off the table. Point is, if the Yankees are planning to make a run at Harper, McCutchen’s probably out of the picture.

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For what it’s worth, McCutchen told Randy Miller it is “too early to say what’s a first choice” when it comes to his next team, though he did praise the Yankees. “The class here is just different. There’s just a different feel that you get when you are on this team. You feel like you’re kind of part of that history, and just to be even mentioned in it is quite an honor honestly. I’ve enjoyed my time here,” he said.

McCutchen’s been awesome in his limited time as a Yankee and I get the feeling that, similar to Todd Frazier last year, there’s going to be an ongoing “why haven’t the Yankees re-signed him?” dialogue this winter. Well, what if Clint Frazier is next year’s Miguel Andujar? What if the plan is to go all-in on Harper? McCutchen is awesome and if there’s a way to bring him back that makes sense, great. Given their recent history, don’t be surprised if the Yankees pass in favor of a younger player, however.

The Yankees and 2018’s major awards

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

There are five days to go in the regular season and, at some point in the next seven days, the various voting members of the BBWAA will have to submit their ballots for the major awards. Ballots are submitted after the regular season but before the postseason. MVP and Cy Young and all that are regular season awards. The postseason is not a factor.

In recent years the voting body has done a better job handing out the awards, and by that I mean the voting results have aligned closely with my hypothetical ballot. The Yankees have several awards candidates this year — not as many as last year, but definitely a few — and could have someone walk away with some hardware. Let’s break down the awards races with only a handful of regular season games remaining.

Most Valuable Player

Aaron Judge’s wrist injury removed him from the MVP conversation. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get some eighth or ninth or tenth place votes, but, as far as being a true MVP candidate, missing two months put an end to that. The AL MVP award will likely go to Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, or J.D. Martinez. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman will get some love as well. Those are the top MVP candidates at the moment.

With Judge out of he mix, the Yankees don’t have a bona fide MVP candidate, which is kinda weird for a team with a chance to win 100+ games. Giancarlo Stanton’s had a good but not great year, Didi Gregorius had a brutal May and has missed time with injuries, Aaron Hicks doesn’t seem high-profile enough, and Luis Severino slumped terribly in the second half. Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres? I bet they get some down ballot votes., especially Andujar.

Unlike last season, when Judge was right there with Jose Altuve, the Yankees don’t have a legitimate MVP candidate this year. They might not even have anyone finish in the top ten of the voting. The last time that happened was 2016. The last time it happened in a year the Yankees made the postseason was … 2015. I would’ve guessed the last time that happened was much further back. Apparently not.

Cy Young

Man, Severino was so good in the first half. He went into the All-Star break ranked fifth in the AL in ERA (2.31), third in FIP (2.74), seventh in strikeout rate (28.7%), sixth in K/BB ratio (4.50), and fourth in WAR (+4.1). The second half slump knocked him down a peg:

  • ERA: 3.39 (9th in AL)
  • FIP: 2.95 (4th)
  • Strikeout rate: 28.2% (8th)
  • K/BB ratio: 4.78 (4th)
  • WAR: +5.7 (5th)

The second half skid doomed Severino’s Cy Young chances. Others like Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole have been so good that Severino might not even get a fifth place vote. (The Cy Young ballot runs five names deep.) Lame, but when you pitch as poorly as Severino did for as long as Severino did, you can’t expect Cy Young votes.

Aside from Severino, I think the only pitcher on the staff with a chance to get a Cy Young vote is Dellin Betances. Masahiro Tanaka labored in the first half, Aroldis Chapman has been hurt and ineffective in the second half, and David Robertson hasn’t had a “reliever who deserves Cy Young attention” season. Betances might’ve. He has received Cy Young votes before — one fifth place vote in 2015, to be precise — and it could happen again. I’d bet against it. Decent chance the Yankees are completely shut out of the Cy Young voting this year.

Rookie of the Year

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Now we’re talking. The Yankees had the Rookie of the Year runner-up two years ago (Gary Sanchez) and the unanimous Rookie of the Year last year (Judge). They could have the Rookie of the Year winner and runner-up this year thanks to Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. The last team with the first and second place finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting is the 2011 Braves with Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman. The last AL team to do it is the 1984 Mariners with Alvin Davis and Mark Langston.

Now here’s where I be a jerk and say Shohei Ohtani is almost certainly going to win Rookie of the Year. And he wouldn’t be an unreasonable pick! Ohtani is hitting .280/.360/.559 (151 wRC+) with 21 homers in 351 plate appearances, and, before his elbow injury, he threw 51.2 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.56 FIP) and 63 strikeouts. That is ridiculously good! The AL rookie WAR leaderboard:

FanGraphs WAR
1. Shohei Ohtani: +3.6
2. Joey Wendle: +3.6
3. Miguel Andujar: +2.6
4. Brad Keller: +2.5
5. Shane Bieber: +2.4
6. Gleyber Torres: +2.1

Baseball Reference WAR
1. Joey Wendle: +4.4
2. Shohei Ohtani: +3.8
3. Brad Keller: +3.6
4. Gleyber Torres: +2.9
5. Jaime Barria: +2.4
6. Miguel Andujar: +2.1

Wendle ain’t winning Rookie of the Year. You have a few weeks to prepare yourself to be angry when Wendle gets a handful of third place votes instead of Andujar or Gleyber, but he’s not winning. Fair or not, there is a narrative component to these awards, and Wendle has zero narrative going for him. He’s a 28-year-old rookie who was designated for assignment over the winter and is getting a WAR boost because the defensive stats still don’t handle multi-position guys well.

Anyway, Ohtani has the numbers and the narrative. He’s been incredible. He’s a top ten hitter on a rate basis and he was very good when on the mound. Doing one thing well is hard. Ohtani is doing both well. Can he overcome the lack of playing time? Andujar has 583 plate appearances. Torres has 465 plate appearances. Ohtani is at 351 plate appearances as a hitter plus 211 batters faced as a pitcher (562 combined). The offensive numbers side-by-side:

  • Ohtani: .280/.360/.559 (151 wRC+) and 21 homers
  • Andujar: .298/.329/.525 (128 wRC+) and 26 homers
  • Torres: .276/.345/.484 (122 wRC+) and 23 homers

Even with the injury, Ohtani has more than lived up to the hype, and it’s an incredible story. I fully expect him to win Rookie of the Year and I don’t think it would be undeserved. And I expect Andujar and Torres to finish second and third in the voting, in either order. That’s still really cool. I mean, you could rank these three guys in any order and I’m not sure it’d be “wrong.”

There is no shame in finishing behind Ohtani. The Yankees will be the first AL team with two top three finishers in the Rookie of the Year voting since the 2013 Rays (Wil Myers and Chris Archer).

Manager of the Year

Last season only four AL managers received Manager of the Year votes. Two years ago it was six. The year before that it was seven and the year before that it was seven as well. Nearly half the league! This year the Manager of the Year award figures to go one of three managers: Kevin Cash, Alex Cora, or Bob Melvin. The Red Sox are having a historic year and that’ll undoubtedly get Cora votes. The A’s are a surprise contender and that usually equals Manager of the Year votes. The same applies to the Rays and Cash.

As for Aaron Boone, everyone expected the Yankees to be good this season and the Yankees have been good this season, if not underwhelming in the second half. A team expected to be good having a good year — and not a historically great year like the Red Sox — usually doesn’t earn a skipper many Manager of the Year votes. There are 30 Manager of the Year ballots and three spots per ballot. How many of those 90 spots go to Boone? Three or four, tops? I’m not sure he even gets that many. The last Yankees manager to win Manager of the Year was Joe Torre in 1998. That won’t change this year.

Comeback Player of the Year

The Yankees don’t have a Comeback Player of the Year candidate. This usually goes to a guy who missed most (or all) of the previous season with an injury and the Yankees don’t have anyone like that. Maybe Betances would get some Comeback Player of the Year attention? I doubt it. As bad as he was down the stretch last year, he had a 2.64 ERA (3.23 FIP) and was an All-Star last season. My guess is Matt Duffy will be named Comeback Player of the Year considering he’s hitting .294/.360/.366 (106 wRC+) at the moment and played 91 total games from 2016-17 (zero in 2017) due to an Achilles injury.

Gold Gloves

The Gold Glove selection process has improved in recent years — there’s a statistical component now and there doesn’t seem to be as much reliance on reputation — and I’m not sure the Yankees have a Gold Glove candidate. Judge missed too much time and he wouldn’t beat out Betts anyway. Hicks is a good defensive center fielder but also probably no better than the fourth best defensive center fielder in his own division. Gregorius has to contend with Andrelton Simmons and Francisco Lindor. Gardner? Meh. The Yankees’ best hope for a Gold Glove is probably Tanaka. He’s an excellent fielder. But yeah, bot seeing a Gold Glove in the 2018 Yankees’ future.

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As far as the Yankees are concerned, all the intrigue this award season will revolve around Rookie of the Year. They don’t have a serious MVP or Cy Young candidate, but Andujar and Torres are right in the Rookie of the Year mix. Beating out Ohtani won’t be easy. Maybe even impossible! But I do expect those two to finish in the top three of the voting somewhere. Three straight seasons with top Rookie of the Year candidates is pretty cool. Hopefully Justus Sheffield makes it four straight next year.

Andrew McCutchen has been a much needed upgrade in the leadoff spot for the Yankees

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(Rich Schultz/Getty)

Last night, as the Yankees blew out the Rays en route to their sixth win in the last eight games, the offensive attack was led by new leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen went 1-for-2 with two walks and a hit-by-pitch, and he saw 20 pitches in his five at-bats. That’s after seeing 34 pitches in five at-bats Monday night. Fifty-four pitches in ten at-bats the last two days. Golly.

McCutchen has now reached base 37 times in his last 17 games — it works out to a .468 OBP in those 17 games — and his overall batting line with the Yankees is .233/.424/.493 (154 wRC+) in 99 plate appearances. The batting average is a little low, but he’s walked (21) more than he’s struck out (18), and he’s hit for power too. Everything but the batting average is great.

“All we’ve seen since he’s gotten here, even the first week when he wasn’t getting a lot of hits, is a guy that really controls the strike zone and has gotten on base a ton for us,” said Aaron Boone to Randy Miller over the weekend. “He’s had impactful at-bats. He worked at (left field) and has been an impactful teammate, and someone that plays like a winning player. He’s done a lot for us.”

When the Yankees initially acquired McCutchen, it was to replace Aaron Judge in right field, and to provide depth in case Judge didn’t return. Shane Robinson and Neil Walker weren’t cutting it in right field. With Judge back, McCutchen is now filling a different role: Leadoff hitter. Brett Gardner, even with a recent little hot streak, is hitting .210/.289/.303 (63 wRC+) in the second half. That is unplayable.

McCutchen has assumed top of the lineup duty and, as I mentioned a moment ago, he has a .424 OBP overall in pinstripes and a .468 OBP in his last 17 games. That is about as good as it gets. Only Joey Votto (16.0%) and Alex Bregman (17.5%) swing at fewer pitchers outside the zone than McCutchen (17.7%), who has also taken to bat flipping his walks …

… and that is pretty darn cool. Not everyone can get away with that. McCutchen is a former MVP who remains very productive and has a sterling reputation within the game. He’s earned the right to pimp his walks (lol) and he’s been doing it a lot lately. No player in the American League has walked more often than McCutchen this month.

The Yankees were missing that swagger earlier this year. They were dull and flat for a long time, and still can be every so often. Now McCutchen is raising hell atop the lineup and looking cool as hell doing it. Even with the low batting average, it looks like coming to New York and playing for a contender has rejuvenated McCutchen. Wouldn’t be the first time that’s happened with a veteran coming over from a losing team.

More than anything, the Yankees needed more from the top lineup spot down the stretch and going into the postseason. Their leadoff hitters hit .205/.319/.298 (75 wRC+) in 40 games from the All-Star break through August 1st. They ranked 28th in AVG, 24th in OBP, 28th in SLG, and 28th in wRC+ from the leadoff spot during that time. You can’t win like that. Can’t be done. Love Gardner. He’s forever cool with me. But the Yankees could not continue like that.

McCutchen’s taken over the leadoff spot and the Yankees now rank first in OBP and first in wRC+ from the leadoff spot in September. He’s making the pitcher work and he’s getting on base for Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. While they Yankees have undoubtedly had some stinkers this month, the offense has been much more formidable with McCutchen. He’s knows what it’s like to be The Man in the lineup and he’s playing like that right now.

“Just being myself. Trusting the process. Trusting what I’ve been doing day in and day out, and just going out there and doing what I know I can do,” said McCutchen earlier this week when asked what allowed him to settle in with the Yankees so quickly (video link). “The guys have been great. When you have someone like Stanton and Judge hitting behind you, you know you’re going to get some pitches. And if not, hey, you take a walk, and they step up and they do it.”

It’s official: Yankees will face the A’s in the Wild Card Game

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(Presswire)

What has been a foregone conclusion for weeks is now official: The Yankees will face the Athletics in the 2018 AL Wild Card Game next Wednesday, October 3rd. The game will likely be played at Yankee Stadium, though that is not yet official.

Tuesday night the Astros beat the Blue Jays and the Mariners walked off with a win over the Athletics, clinching the AL West title for Houston. Mariners utility guy Chris Herrmann clubbed a pinch-hit walk-off homer to give the Astros the AL West crown.

The Red Sox have already clinched the AL East — and the best record in baseball, at that — and the Indians have already clinched the AL Central. The entire American League postseason field is now set. Here’s the playoff picture:

  • Wild Card Game: Yankees vs. Athletics
  • ALDS: Wild Card Game winner at Red Sox
  • ALDS: Indians at Astros

The only thing still up for grabs is homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game. The Yanks have a three-game lead in the loss column for the top wildcard spot that is effectively a four-game lead because they hold the tiebreaker. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is two with five games to play.

The Yankees and Athletics split their season series 3-3 this year. The Yankees won two of three in New York in May and the A’s won two of three in Oakland three weeks ago. The A’s visited the Yankees when the Yankees were in the middle of their best stretch of the season, and vice versa. Go figure.

These two franchises do have some postseason history, though none of it is recent. They last met back in the 2001 ALDS. That was the Derek Jeter flip play series. The Yankees and A’s also met in the 1981 ALCS and the 2000 ALDS. The Yankees have won all three head-to-head series.

Yankees 9, Rays 2: Big seven-run inning and Sevy’s solid outing drive Yankees to their 97th win

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The Yankees now have 97 wins for the season. That ties 2011 for their most since 2009, and we still have five more games to go. It’s remarkable to think that this could be the winningest team since the latest championship considering not a lot of things clicked in the cylinder this year. Anyways, just like last night, it was a relatively easy one. The offense set the tone in the third by pushing across 7 runs off the Rays bullpen. Luis Severino had a good outing – not necessarily classic Severino one – that gave enough reasons to be optimistic moving forward. The Yankees’ magic number for clinching the home spot for the AL Wild Card game is now at three.

(Getty Images)

The seven-run third

The Yankees pretty much put the game away in the third with a big, seven-run inning against the Rays:

Here are a few notes:

  • All the good rallies start with the soft-hitting defensive shortstop. To lead off the inning, Adeiny Hechavarria got a fastball low inside corner and golfed it just above the left field fence for a solo homer. A backup shortstop breathing life into the offense is pretty cool, but how about John Sterling’s call?
  • The beat didn’t stop there. Brett Gardner followed it up with a triple down the first base line and Andrew McCutchen walked to put runners on corners. Up came Aaron Judge and he hit the hardest liner (109.0 mph) of the inning … which was caught by the pitcher Jake Faria. And thank God, because it was going straight to the pitcher’s head and his glove happened to be at the right position to catch it on fly. It’s cool when Aaron Judge is able to drive runs in, but, in that moment, you gotta be glad for Faria being able to protect himself. Kevin Cash decided that that would be it for the Rays starting pitcher and put in Andrew Kittredge.
  • The Rays went on to pitch to Luke Voit. The beefy first baseman made them pay by lining a double down the line to score two more. After intentionally walking Giancarlo Stanton, Cash put in Jalen Beeks, a pitcher they brought in for the Nathan Eovaldi trade with the Red Sox. With bases loaded, Neil Walker drew a walk to push another run across, and Miguel Andujar followed it up with a sac fly to make it 4-0.
  • Think the Yanks were done there? The ninth batter of the inning, Gary Sanchez, who had been struggling prior to tonight, got a hold of Beeks’ 92 mph fastball down the zone and drove it out of the park for a three-run home run. Boy, did Sanchez need that. He also had the best offensive night in many moons, and we’ll get into that later.

Severino’s night

(Getty Images)

I’ll count this one as a good night for Luis Severino. He had one dicey inning where he allowed two runs (could have been three if it weren’t for the Rays’ blunder decision to send Ji-Man Choi to home that resulted in an easy out) but there were a lot of positives.

Well, a big chunk of that is that he was missing bats. He got 17 whiffs (fourth-highest of the season) out of 97 pitches and got 7 strike outs in 5 innings. Eleven swings and misses were from his heater, which is always a positive. As it is true for many pitchers, Severino needs his fastball to be effective to have a successful outing. Remember when he had a terrible stretch mid-season? His fastball, despite having that velocity, wasn’t really missing bats.

Cause for concern? He did lose the command for a hot second in the third. He started the inning by allowing a double to deep right to Joey Wendle. On the next pitch, Sevy plunked Tommy Pham on the elbow. He followed it up by walking Ji-Man Choi on five pitches. Brandon Lowe, who had a 3-for-3 night, squared up on a fastball middle-middle for a two-RBI double. The Rays gave Yanks a free out by waving Choi home for an easy out. C.J. Cron lined out to Hechavarria for the second out and Kevin Kiermaier grounded out to end the frame. There were some hard-hit balls in the inning and Sevy ran into some luck to close it out, but you do have to consider that even the hot pitchers run into a bad short stretch once in awhile. The rest of the outing was good enough to give Severino some benefit of the doubt.

Even though Severino doesn’t look like his first-half dominant self, there are reasons to believe in him in a postseason start, especially given the turnaround he’s had in his previous seven starts. For the Yankees’ sake, let’s hope it’s a trend.

The rest of the game

The Yankees tacked on two more runs for rest of the night. In the fifth, Stanton led off with a frozen-rope double (112.2 mph) down the left field line. Walker’s ground out advanced him to third but Andujar failed to drive him in by popping out to catcher. Don’t worry, here comes Gary Sanchez. The Yankee catcher pulled a single to left for his fourth RBI of the night. All in all, Sanchez went 2-for-4 with a walk and 4 RBI’s, which is… definitely more like it. Believe it or not, it’s his first game in more than three months in which he drove in more than two runs. Given on the caliber of hitter he can be, that really tells you what kind of year he’s had. I’m not saying it will be, but hopefully, tonight can serve as some kind of turnaround for his season.

In the ninth, Miguel Andujar went deep against our old friend Vidal Nuno. That’s his 26th homer of the year and the kid just continues to rake. After tonight, the Yankee third baseman has a .298/.329/.525 line with 71 total extra base hits. He may win the Rookie of the Year, he may not, but looking at the bigger picture, the Yankee fans got to be excited about how his hitting prowess will develop over the years.

On the pitching side, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Tarpley and Domingo German kept the Rays scoreless for the last 4 IP of the game. Not the names that Boone would use in close game situations, but he had to feel good after seeing what they offered tonight. It seems that, Tarpley in particular, has impressed Boone enough to consider him in the “conversation” for the postseason roster.

Box score, highlights, standings and WPA

Here’s tonight’s box score, video highlights, updated standings and WPA.


Source: FanGraphs

The series continues tomorrow. Masahiro Tanaka will be on the mound against the Rays opener Ryne Stanek. 7:10 pm EST start, so it’s the same drill as today.

Game 157: Six Games to Go

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(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty)

Good win last night. The Yankees beat the Rays at their own game with the bullpen and knocked them out of postseason contention in the process. That was satisfying. That doesn’t mean the Rays will lay down these next three days, of course. It doesn’t work like that. They still want to win and make life miserable for the Yankees. The magic number for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game is four.

On the mound tonight is Luis Severino, who is potentially making his final start of the regular season. He lines up to pitch tonight and on the season’s final day. My guess is Severino will only start the final game if it’s a must-win for homefield advantage. Otherwise he’ll be held back for the Wild Card Game, even if he’s only on the roster as a reliever. If this is his final regular season start, I hope Severino dominates, and goes into the postseason confident. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Luke Voit
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 2B Neil Walker
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. C Gary Sanchez
8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria
9. CF Brett Gardner

RHP Luis Severino

Tampa Bay Rays
1. RF Mallex Smith
2. 3B Joey Wendle
3. LF Tommy Pham
4. 1B Ji-Man Choi
5. 2B Brandon Lowe
6. DH C.J. Cron
7. CF Kevin Kiermaier
8. SS Willy Adames
9. C Adam Moore

RHP Jake Faria

It is it hot, humid, and rainy in St. Petersburg today. Good day to play indoors. Tonight’s game will begin at 7:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and ESPN out-of-market. Enjoy the ballgame.

Injury Updates: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) went for an MRI today and it brought back good news. There’s no tear. The hamstring is still tight and Hicks is day-to-day. Best case scenario, basically. “We feel like we dodged a bullet,” said Aaron Boone … Didi Gregorius (wrist) took ground balls today without throwing. He is still receiving treatment and said he feels better than he did yesterday, when he felt better than he did Sunday. Gregorius will see the doctor for a check-up tomorrow … Gleyber Torres was scratched from tonight’s lineup with tightness in his groin/hip. He spent a few weeks on the disabled list with a hip problem earlier this year, remember. Torres was scratched as a precaution and is available off the bench.