River Avenue Blues

The Yankees will start Gary Sanchez in the Wild Card Game and it is right move

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(Presswire)

Let me preface this by saying Gary Sanchez has had an abysmal season. A worst case scenario season, really. He’s been on the disabled list twice, and, when healthy, he’s hit .180/.280/.386 (80 wRC+) in 357 plate appearances. There have been 1,005 individual player seasons of at least 300 plate appearances in Yankees history. Sanchez’s .180 batting average ranks 1,004th. Only someone named Red Kleinow was worse. He hit .168 in 1908.

Sanchez has had a terrible season at the plate and a bad season behind it, particularly blocking the ball, and he is one of the single biggest reasons the Yankees are fighting for home field advantage in the Wild Card Game in the final week of the regular season rather than enjoying a big lead. I was hopeful Sanchez would return from the disabled list looking like 2016-17 Gary Sanchez. Instead, he’s 10-for-66 (.152) in 19 games since returning.

Given his season to date, it is perfect reasonable to question whether Sanchez should start the Wild Card Game one week from tomorrow. Austin Romine isn’t great by any means, but he’s better at blocking pitches, and he actually has Sanchez beat offensively this year (93 wRC+ vs. 80 wRC+). Is he the better player at this moment? He might be. The case can be made. The Yankees aren’t hearing it though. Sanchez will start the Wild Card Game.

“We’re doubling down and tripling down on Gary Sanchez because we know the ceiling that is there and the capabilities this player has on both sides of the ball,” said Cashman to Greg Joyce over the weekend. “We have a short time frame to get a number of players finding their groove. He’s one of them … Gary has had a rough stretch. We do believe that maybe the best is yet to come.”

Over the weekend Aaron Boone gave a very succinct “yes” when asked whether Sanchez will start the Wild Card Game. “Hopefully there is that stretch in him where he really gains some momentum with some good and positive at-bats where he gets some results and then it can kind of snowball from there because of who he is as a hitter,” Boone told Laura Albanese another day. Barring injury, Sanchez will be behind the plate next Wednesday.

And, to me, that is 100% the right call. In a winner-take-all game — in all postseason games, really — you put your best and most talented players on the field, and trust them to do what’s necessary to win the game. And I know I’m not the only one who feels this way:

Sanchez is unquestionably the most talented catcher on the roster. Is he playing up to his potential right now? Oh hell no. Not even close. But the ability is there and he’s capable of doing things at an elite level moreso than any other catcher on the roster and moreso than most catchers in the game.

The entire “Romine over Sanchez” argument seems to boil down to “Sanchez might allow a passed ball at a bad time,” which is totally true, but that’s not a good enough reason to start Romine. That’s managing because you’re scared of losing. Once you start making decisions because you’re afraid of mistakes rather than making decisions to put the game in the hands of your best players, you’re done. That’s the thinking that bought us A-Rod batting eighth. (Also, it’s much more likely Sanchez gets through a game without a passed ball than with, but I digress.)

The offensive potential does not compare — Romine is hitting .210/.255/.370 (65 wRC+) in 197 plate appearances since June 1st, which is in line with his .228/.270/.330 (56 wRC+) line from 2016-17, so let’s not pretend he’s something he’s not at the plate — the throwing arm doesn’t compare, and over the last two seasons the pitching staff has allowed fewer earned runs (3.42 ERA vs. 4.14 ERA) and a lower opponent’s OPS+ (94 vs. 105) when Sanchez is behind the plate. Because he’s the better catcher. It’s not rocket science. It’s baseball.

Sitting Sanchez for Romine (or Kyle Higashioka!) is not the same thing as sitting Brett Gardner for Andrew McCutchen. The Yankees wouldn’t be sitting a slumping player for a comfortably above-average player. They’d be sitting a slumping player for a backup who doesn’t really do anything well. Sanchez isn’t doing anything well right now either! But I am much more comfortable expecting him to do something productive than any other catcher on the roster.

Gary has been awful this season. Inexcusably awful and he should be embarrassed by his play this year. If this doesn’t get him motivated going into next year, nothing will. If this doesn’t get him motivated going into the postseason, nothing will. There’s nothing Sanchez can do to save his regular season now. There’s no saving that batting line with six games to play. But the postseason is a fresh start and a chance for redemption. That’s the only way Gary can look at this season now.

Truth be told, the Yankees do not have a starting caliber catcher right now. Sanchez hasn’t played like one all year and Romine didn’t play like one while Sanchez was on the disabled list. Given that, I think the Yankees should go with their most talented player, the one you know has a chance to be an impact player because he’s been an impact player in the recent past. Put you best players on the field and if you lose, you lose. But at least the Yankees would’ve been in the best position to win.

Zach Britton would “love to be back” with the Yankees, and there are two important things to keep in mind

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(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

Back in July, when the Yankees acquired Zach Britton a few days before the trade deadline, it felt like a luxury. The Yankees already had a strong bullpen that rated statistically as one of the best in baseball, and using prospect capital on another reliever seemed questionable with the rotation and some other roster problems still in need of a solution.

Since being acquired, however, Britton has quickly emerged as an indispensable part of the bullpen. He helped cover while Aroldis Chapman was on the disabled list — Chapman’s knee had been barking all season and I have zero doubt that factored into the team’s decision to add Britton — and also provides an extra layer of depth down the stretch and into the postseason.

Not surprisingly, Britton is interested in remaining a Yankee beyond this season. He’s an impending free agent and recently said he would love to remain with the team, which is usually how it goes. Players come to the Yankees and quickly fall in love with the organization. From Brendan Kuty:

“It’s kind of been everything I would have hoped it would have been,” said Britton. “… I’m sure we’ll kind of see where they are and where we are, but I would definitely love to be back. I don’t know where they are in terms of arbitration raises and all that, but this would definitely be one of my top choices.”

Britton has a 3.00 ERA (3.49 FIP) with an insane 77.9% ground ball rate in 24 innings with the Yankees. His first few weeks were a bit of a slog — not surprisingly, he’s been better as he gets further away from the Achilles injury —  but he’s been especially good of late, allowing only three runs (two earned) in his last 16 appearances and 16.2 innings. Opponents have hit .155/.180/.207 against him in those 16 appearances. Britton’s been awesome. Does a reunion make sense? Two things to keep in mind here.

1. The Yankees will have to reinforce the bullpen this offseason. Britton and David Robertson will be free agents this winter and those are two key late-inning arms. The Yankees will still have Chapman in the ninth inning with Dellin Betances, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder for setup duty, but yeah, losing two late-inning relievers to free agency is rough.

The Yankees clearly place a premium on a deep bullpen and I can’t imagine they’d simply let those two guys walk and plug the bullpen openings internally (Domingo German? Jonathan Loaisiga?). That doesn’t necessarily mean the Yankees will re-sign Britton and/or Robertson, of course. The Yankees could go in another direction and sign Craig Kimbrel or Adam Ottavino or Jeurys Familia. Or they could trade for a bullpen guy. Who knows? There will be options.

Point is, the Yankees will add to their bullpen this offseason. It could make sense to stick with a known commodity like Britton (or Robertson), someone the Yankees know and have a history with, but this is the same team that let Robertson walk so they could sign Andrew Miller. There will be a significant move(s) to reinforce the bullpen this winter. Bringing back Britton could very well be it.

2. Britton won’t come cheap. Nor should he. He’s very good, he’s left-handed, he has a super-elite skill (generating grounders), he’ll turn only 31 in December, and he’s shown in his brief time with the Yankees that he can be flexible. Britton’s entered games in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings these last few weeks. The injury history is undoubtedly a red flag. Everything else? It’s all pretty good.

I think it’s more likely Britton gets Wade Davis money (three years, $52M) than Chapman (five years, $82.5M) or Kenley Jansen (five years, $80M) money because he has that injury history and because he hasn’t sustained his excellence as long as Chapman or Jansen. Three years at $17M+ per season is a hell of a deal for a reliever though. The Yankees already have one reliever at that salary level. Are they open to carrying another? From Kuty:

A source with knowledge of the Yankees’ personnel decisions told NJ Advance Media said it’s expected that Britton will seek closer money in the open market, and that the team would be highly unlikely to pursue at that level considering the presence of Aroldis Chapman, whose owed $45 million through 2021.

That sounds like posturing more than anything. Good luck finding a team — or even an anonymous source connected to a team — saying they’ll pay top dollar to retain a player at this time of year. Even if they’re willing to do it, they won’t say it. It hurts their negotiating leverage. I’d have been more surprised if we didn’t hear something like this.

Anyway, the Yankees are resetting their luxury tax rate this season and while I want to believe that means an increase in payroll is coming, I’m going to have to see it to believe it. The Yankees have the money to retain Britton, obviously. It’s just a question of whether they want to spent it, or if they want to find a cheaper alternative. If he wants $17M+ a year, walking away from Britton wouldn’t be too difficult, I don’t think.

* * *

In terms of performance, I’m not worried about Britton going forward. His injury history scares me more than anything. And it’s not the Achilles. It’s the forearm trouble that sent him to the disabled list on two occasions last year. Those usually point to arm (specifically elbow) problems. To be fair, Britton hasn’t had any forearm woes since last year. That’s my worry though. Not the performance, the health.

To me, I think keeping Robertson is essential this winter. He is three years older than Britton, but I expect that to be reflected in his contract, and I greatly prefer Robertson’s strikeouts to Britton’s grounders. Robertson’s injury history is cleaner as well. They’re both excellent and I’d be happy with either guy. My personal preference is Robertson. Britton would work just as well. Maybe the Yankees will re-sign both and make life easy. I’m not sure that’ll happen though.

The Yankees and Britton have to get through the regular season and postseason before worrying about free agency. There is a time and a place to think about that stuff and that time’s not now. The Yankees figure to seek out bullpen help over the winter and Britton will be among the best available relievers. A reunion makes sense at the right price. With any luck, Britton will make it tough for the Yankees to walk away with his performance.

The Yankees still have some things to accomplish even after clinching a postseason spot

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(Presswire)

Saturday night, the Yankees clinched a spot in the 2018 postseason with a thrilling walk-off win against Orioles. Well, maybe thrilling isn’t the best way to put it. The game was pretty dull up until Aaron Hicks yanked his walk-off double into the right field corner in the 11th inning. That was fun. The rest of the game? Meh.

Anyway, the Yankees are indeed going back to the postseason. They’re locked into the Wild Card Game because the Red Sox have already clinched the AL East title, so that’s a bummer, but at least the Yankees are in. Get into the postseason and you can win the World Series. The Yankees will be one of the final ten teams standing. That’s pretty cool.

Now, just because the Yankees are locked into the Wild Card Game, it doesn’t mean they can coast during this final week of the regular season. Well, they could, but I wouldn’t advise it. There are still some things to accomplish and some boxes to check this week. Here are five.

Clinch homefield advantage

Fun fact: The home team is 5-7 in the Wild Card Game all-time. That said, I can’t imagine any fan wants their team to play on the road in the Wild Card Game. Teams are built for their home ballparks and few teams are built as well for their home ballpark as the Yankees. The home/record records:

Yankees at home: 53-28 (+101 run differential)
Yankees on the road: 43-32 (+64 run differential)

Athletics at home: 50-31 (+59 run differential)
Athletics on the road: 45-31 (+77 run differential)

The Yankees are a good team on the road and a great team at home. And the 2018 Athletics are not the 2017 Twins. The Twins sold at the trade deadline last year and still made the postseason because the rest of the American League stunk. They made the postseason by default. This year’s Athletics are an excellent team and no pushover. The Yankees will need as much help as they can get in that Wild Card Game, and that includes the short porch and the Yankee Stadium crowd. The magic number for homefield advantage is four.

(Also, clinching homefield advantage means avoiding a brutal travel schedule. If the Wild Card Game is in Oakland, the Yankees have have to travel from Boston to Oakland after the end of the regular season, then potentially go right back to Boston if they advance to the ALDS. Making a round trip cross country to play one game? No. Just no.)

Pick a Wild Card Game starter

The Yankees are in a good spot when it comes to picking a starting pitcher for next Wednesday’s Wild Card Game. They have three good candidates in J.A. Happ, Luis Severino, and Masahiro Tanaka. I would much rather have one great candidate like first half Severino than three good candidates, but I can’t complain. I’ll feel pretty good — as good as you can feel in that situation, anyway — no matter who gets the ball.

“We will pick whoever is best qualified at that time, regardless of the following series,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera over the weekend when asked about the Wild Card Game starter. “It’s all hands on deck for that one game, to find a way to survive it … Whatever is in our best interest, we’ll try to do.”

Two weeks ago RAB readers said Tanaka should start the Wild Card Game. Happ would be a fine choice as well. Severino? If he continues to pitch like he did last time out, it would be awfully tough for the Yankees to give the ball to someone else. Whoever it ends up being, the Yankees have to make a decision reasonably soon, and get that pitcher lined up on however many days rest (normal rest? an extra day?) this week.

Get Judge at-bats and Chapman innings

In seven games back in the starting lineup, Judge is 4-for-22 (.182) with six walks (.357 OBP) with seven strikeouts. The plate discipline is still there — the loss makes it easy to forget, but Judge’s ten-pitch battle against Eduardo Rodriguez that turned an 0-2 count into a walk before Giancarlo Stanton’s grand slam Thursday was a masterful at-bat — but the timing is not. He looks like a hitter who missed closed to two months.

Judge has put 15 balls in play since returning as a hitter and he has more fly balls and line drives (eight) than grounders and pop-ups (seven), so that’s good, but he’s not hitting the ball with much authority. He roped a 112.1 mph line drive in his first at-bat back. Since then he has only five 90+ mph batted balls, and his average exit velocity is 85.9 mph. His spray chart with exit velocities:

Yeah, not great. Judge has swung through some hittable fastballs since returning, which isn’t the most surprising thing in the world. He had a long layoff and jumping straight from batting practice and simulated games to live MLB pitching ain’t easy. That’s why Judge needs as many at-bats as possible the rest of the season. There’s a delicate balance here because the Yankees don’t want to overload the wrist, but yeah, Judge needs at-bats.

As for Chapman, he’s made three appearances since returning, two good and one not-so-good. His command was nonexistent — similar to Judge, Chapman not having good command after a month on the shelf isn’t surprising — in his first game back, and his velocity was down the last two times out. In fact, his 96.3 mph average fastball velocity Saturday was his slowest average fastball since June 2012.

“I felt good. The speed wasn’t where it usually is, but my command was much better and that’s really important,” said Chapman to Dan Martin over the weekend. “(The velocity being down) doesn’t worry me at all. I know the speed is there. It’s just a matter of getting out there and my getting rhythm back. Maybe after two more outings I’ll be back to being the pitcher I’ve been.”

Seeing Chapman sit mid-90s rather than upper-90s/low-100s can be alarming, though in this case, I’m not worried. He missed a month and is still rebuilding arm strength. Two bullpen sessions and one simulated game wasn’t going to get him back into midseason form. The Yankees have six games remaining and, since Chapman pitched yesterday, it seems he has three appearances remaining at most. He and Judge need reps this last week to get back to where the Yankees need they them to be going into October.

Rest whoever’s hurting

Well, the Yankees were in good shape health-wise up until two days ago. Now Didi Gregorius has torn cartilage in his wrist and Aaron Hicks has a tight hamstring. Both are day-to-day at this point. Gregorius will be reevaluated tomorrow and Hicks is going for an MRI today. If all goes well, both could return to the lineup later this week. I sure hope that happens. Aside from Didi and Hicks, the Yanks are healthy.

Does that mean everyone on the roster is 100%? Oh hell no. No one is 100% in September. Everyone’s nursing something. Stanton’s still dealing with his tight hamstring. Brett Gardner’s been icing his right knee after games on-and-off for a few weeks now. Dellin Betances has that cut on his finger that keeps opening up. He says it doesn’t affect his pitching, but he seems to be bleeding every time he’s on the mound, and that can’t be fun.

Point is, some players are nursing injuries, and if the Yankees can get them some extra rest and extra treatment in hopes of getting them healthy for the postseason, they should do it. There’s a balance that has to be struck, for sure. The Yankees can’t go into hangover mode just yet because they need to secure homefield advantage, but if there’s an opportunity to deal with those aches and pains, they should do it.

Prepare regulars for postseason roles

Inevitably, some players will see their roles changed in October. Lance Lynn is probably going to move to the bullpen, for example. He pitched out of the bullpen in the postseason plenty with the Cardinals, so it’s a role he’s familiar with, but it still would be good to give him a tune-up game in relief before the season ends, you know? You don’t want him doing it for the first time in a potential elimination game.

Gardner had been relegated to bench duty before Hicks got hurt last night, and if Hicks returns later this week, it stands to reason Gardner will be the designated pinch-runner in the postseason. Do you know how long it’s been since Gardner pinch-ran? Last June. He’s pinch-run five times total since 2012. It’s not a role he’s familiar with and it’s not easy to come off the bench cold like that. A few tune-up pinch-running appearances this week would be worthwhile, assuming Hicks returns.

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Also, with Gardner in center/on the bench, Andrew McCutchen is now the everyday left fielder, and he has 59 career big league innings in left field. All 59 have come within the last two weeks. He’s still learning the position — McCutchen’s looked fine out there overall but has taken some interesting routes at times, which is to be expected — and the more time the Yankees give him out there, the more comfortable he’ll be.

There are some other minor considerations here as well. Will Greg Bird make the postseason roster, even as a bench bat? If yes, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give him some at-bats this final week. Are Chad Green and David Robertson (and Zach Britton?) going to be multi-inning options in the postseason? Making sure they’re sufficiently stretched out seems worthwhile. Little things like this will help get the Yankees ready for October.

* * *

A case can be made the Yankees should give Justus Sheffield a chance to show he belongs on the postseason roster this week, though, realistically, I don’t think there’s enough time for that to happen. Best case scenario this week is three appearances, right? How well would Sheffield have to pitch in those three appearances to get the nod on the postseason roster? There are too many guys ahead of him on the depth chart, I think, but I do hope to see Sheffield pitch a bunch this week.

The Yankees have punched their ticket to the postseason, so they know they’re in. Now they have to clinch homefield advantage and make sure the Wild Card Game is in New York. They also have to get their players ready for the postseason, which means picking a Wild Card Game starter, getting Judge and Chapman ready, and preparing players for their October roles. The Yankees know they’re going to the postseason. Their work during the regular season isn’t done yet though.

Yankees 4, Rays 1: Sometimes, throwing eight pitchers out there works

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In the battle of the opener vs. opener strategy, the Yankees came out victorious in the first game of the series at the Trop. They not only won the game, but also the magic number for clinching the top Wild Card spot is down to four, and they knocked the Rays out of the playoff race. We will be watching the A’s vs. Mariners score, but for tonight, the Yankees did what they could control: win a ballgame.

(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty Images)

The runs

The Yankees got on board against the second Rays pitcher Hunter Wood. With one out in the third, Andrew McCutchen got a fastball right down the middle and crushed it over the left field fence. Wood had fed him nothing but a steady diet of fastballs and he got a perfect mistake pitch. 1-0 Yankees.

93 up in the zone. Big league hitters can crush that.

Heading into the bottom of the fourth, the Yankees lifted Aaron Hicks for Brett Gardner in center field. Uh oh. The Yankees have Didi Gregorius out (for now) with an injury and, because we are nearing the postseason, any sign of injury is a much bigger deal than usual. It turned out that Hicks has a tight left hamstring, so let’s hope it’s precautionary.

In a better news, Gardner was involved in a two-run rally in the fifth. With two outs, Aaron Judge worked a walk and advanced to second on a wild pitch. Gardner got a hold of Ryan Yarbrough sinker low in the zone for an RBI single to make it 2-0 Yanks. Giancarlo Stanton followed it up with a double to deep left, scoring Gardner from first to make it a two-run lead. Stanton did get thrown out at third trying to stretch it into a triple, but the damage was done.

The Bombers added another against Yarbrough in the seventh. With one out, McCutchen and Judge hit back-to-back doubles to put another one on board. This has been repeated in the website, but adding McCutchen has been such a good move for the lineup. We’ve known his pedigree of being a good hitter with the Pirates, but at the leadoff spot, McCutchen has seen tons of pitches. Tonight alone, he saw 34 of them in 5 plate appearances (6.8 pitches per PA), which is insane. Add his ability to see pitches with, well, Aaron Judge, who seems to be in full-count in any given at bat. The Yankees will hope that those two will be catalysts in elevating pitch counts in the postseason.

The pitchers

(Joseph Garnett Jr./Getty Images)

The Yankees used 8 pitchers total tonight, which, I guess, was expected using the opener strategy. Here is the list:

Jonathan Holder (1st inning) – Stephen Tarpley (2nd inning) – Sonny Gray (3rd and 4th innings) – Chad Green (5th inning) – David Robertson (6th inning) – Aroldis Chapman (7th inning) – Dellin Betances (8th inning) – Zach Britton (9th inning)

Here are some notes:

  • I have no idea how Stephen Tarpley will develop as a major league pitcher. He doesn’t have the high relief pitching prospect pedigree that guys like Chapman or Robertson did. However, he has chance to be useful. There’s always a spot in bullpen for guys that live off a sinker-slider combo. Since is ML debut earlier this month, when he allowed three earned runs against the Tigers, Tarpley has yet to allow another. Tonight’s outing may have been the crispest, as the lefty pitched a three-up, three-down inning with a strikeout.
  • How about the late inning guys? Green, Robertson, Chapman, Betances and Britton combined for 5 no-hit innings with 9 strikeouts. That’s the kind of collaborative effort that the Yankees hoped for when they assembled this group. I would imagine that they will run these arms frequently during the postseason (assuming they win the AL Wild Card game as well).
  • Regarding Aroldis Chapman – eye test-wise, his command looked better than that of his previous outings after coming off the DL. The problem is velocity. It’s weird to be concerned about a guy who topped out at 98.1 mph in an outing, but he did average at 97 mph tonight, which is a tick or two below his usual. He did get two swinging strikeouts on sliders, which is a positive for the Yanks. Earlier this season when Chapman was doing well, he was able to command his slider in the zone or to induce whiffs, regardless of how his fastball fared. It would be a boon for the back of the bullpen if he can jack his fastball velocity closer to 100 and be able to use his slider the way he did tonight.
  •  Zach Britton looks really good. I think there’s a possibility that the Yankees assign closing jobs by committee in the playoffs, but Britton has made a solid case to pitch in more save situations. In 9 September appearances, Britton has allowed zero earned runs and zero walks. The further removed he is from the Achilles surgery, the better he looks.
  • Now, enjoy this catch by Gardner that saved two runs for the Yankees in the sixth.

Box score, highlights, standings and WPA

Here’s tonight’s box score, video highlights, updated standings and WPA.


Source: FanGraphs

The series at Trop continues tomorrow at 7:10 pm EST. Luis Severino will be on the mound for the Yankees against Jake Faria.

Aaron Hicks exits tonight’s game with tight left hamstring

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(Presswire)

10:18pm ET: Hicks was removed as a precaution and will go for an MRI tomorrow. “Hopefully it’s not something that keeps him down too long,” said Aaron Boone.

8:56pm ET: Sigh. Another injury. Aaron Hicks left tonight’s game with a tight left hamstring, the Yankees say. Hicks beat out a double play ball in the third inning and appeared to be walking gingerly afterward, though he stayed in to play the field one more inning before exiting. Hopefully this is just a precaution.

The Yankees are already without Didi Gregorius, who has torn cartilage in his wrist, and now they might be without Hicks. That’s their two best left-handed hitters (Hicks is a switch-hitter, but you know what I mean) and two key up-the-middle players. There’s not much regular season remaining. If Hicks needs a few days to get healthy, we might not see him again until the postseason.

For what it’s worth, Hicks had tightness and cramping in his left hamstring back in July, and missed only two games. With any luck that will be the case again here. Kinda weird that, two days after clinching a postseason spot, the Yankees have lost the player who scored the winning run (Gregorius) and the player who had the walk-off hit (Hicks) in the clincher. Spooky.

Brett Gardner took over in center field after Hicks exited the game and he’s the obvious replacement going forward. I don’t think the Yankees want to put Andrew McCutchen in center field in anything other than an emergency. Aaron Judge might be the backup center fielder for the time being.

Game 156: The Opener

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(Elsa/Getty)

One week to go in the 2018 regular season. The Yankees have already clinched a wildcard spot. Now they need to clinch the top wildcard spot. The magic number to do so is five. Tonight the Yankees open a four-game series in Tampa against a Rays team that is still mathematically alive in the postseason race. The Rays have to win out and the Athletics have to lose out, and all that does is force a Game 163 tiebreaker. Tampa can’t claim a postseason spot outright at this point. But that’s their problem.

The Yankees are going to give the Rays a taste of their own medicine tonight by using an opener. Jonathan Holder is starting tonight as the Yankees rejigger their rotation in advance of the postseason. My thoughts: It’s about time. I wanted the Yankees to use an opener for Domingo German (9.00 ERA in the first inning) and for Chance Adams at Fenway Park (two runs in the first), but no luck. Beating the Rays with an opener and knocking them out of the postseason race sure would be sweet. Here are tonight’s lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Aaron Hicks
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 1B Luke Voit
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. 2B Gleyber Torres
8. C Gary Sanchez
9. SS Adeiny Hechavarria

RHP Jonathan Holder

Tampa Bay Rays
1. CF Mallex Smith
2. 3B Matt Duffy
3. 1B Ji-Man Choi
4. LF Tommy Pham
5. SS Joey Wendle
6. 2B Brandon Lowe
7. RF Austin Meadows
8. 1B Jake Bauers
9. C Nick Ciuffo

RHP Diego Castillo

It is hot and rainy in St. Petersburg and dry and air conditioned in Tropicana Field. Tonight’s game will begin at 7:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy.

Injury Update: Didi Gregorius (wrist) feels better today and has more range of motion. “I think I’ll be ready before the regular season ends,” he said. For now, Gregorius remains day-to-day. He hasn’t done any sort of baseball activities and he’ll continue receiving treatment. He’ll be reevaluated Wednesday.

Rotation Update: Luis Severino will start tomorrow, Masahiro Tanaka will start Wednesday, and CC Sabathia will start Thursday. That means J.A. Happ is starting Friday and will line up to start the Wild Card Game on normal rest. It also means the Yankees could start Tanaka in the Wild Card Game on an extra days’ rest or Severino with two extra days. Not an accident. The Yankees have given themselves options. Also, Boone said the Yankees are “not close” to naming a Wild Card Game starter. They hope to have their Wild Card Game starter in place by the end of the week. Translation: We need to clinch homefield advantage first. (Severino will be in position to start Game 162, if necessary.)

9/24 to 9/27 Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

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Tommy Pham and Joey Wendle. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Yankees magic number to clinch home field advantage is five, with seven games to play. They’re two games up in the loss column, which is good, but they’re remaining schedule is quite difficult – especially when compared to the A’s, who will face the Mariners and Angels. The odds are in the Yankees favor but, to be incredibly cliche, that’s why they play the games.

With two series remaining, the Yankees will first travel to Tampa Bay.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Rays for a three-game set back in the middle of August, dropping two out of three by a combined score of 10-6. Some of that could be chalked up to Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez being on the DL, Andrew McCutchen still in San Francisco, and Luke Voit not yet emerging – but it was still a bothersome series to watch. Some notes:

  • J.A. Happ spun a gem in the first game, throwing 7 scoreless innings and allowing just six base-runners (one of which was via HBP). It was his first of three scoreless outings for the good guys thus far.
  • Miguel Andujar went 2-for-4 with a double and a solo home run in game two … and the rest of the offense went 3-for-28 with a double.
  • Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs in the first, but settled down nicely from there; unfortunately, the Yankees once again mustered only a single run – this one off of a double by Giancarlo Stanton.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more (not so) fun facts.

Injury Report

Wilmer Font, Jose Mujica, and Daniel Robertson have been added to the Rays fairly lengthy list of players that are done for the season. Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier are also dealing with nagging injuries, though neither has hit the DL.

Their Story So Far

The Rays are 87-68 with a +85 run differential, and have an incredibly slim chance at making the playoffs as the second Wild Card team. To do so they would need to win out while the A’s lost out, though, so the degree of ‘slim’ cannot really be exaggerated. That being said, it’s still kind of miraculous that this team has played so well since opening the season 3-12, considering that they are tied for the eight-best record in baseball with the Cleveland Indians.

Their season has been unconventional, to say the least, but their bullpen/opener strategy appears to be catching on a bit more than expected – so this may end up being one of the more memorable non-playoff seasons in recent memory.

The Lineup We Might See

Operating under the assumption that Kiermaier and Choi will be playing:

  1. Mallex Smith, RF – .299/.370/.409, 2 HR, 36 SB, 118 OPS+
  2. Matt Duffy, 3B – .295/.359/.367, 4 HR, 12 SB, 104 OPS+
  3. Ji-Man Choi, DH – .267/.353/.513, 10 HR, 2 SB, 137 OPS+
  4. Tommy Pham, LF – .273/.361/.456, 20 HR, 13 SB, 124 OPS+
  5. Joey Wendle, 2B – .301/.356/.439, 7 HR, 15 SB, 121 OPS+
  6. Willy Adames, SS – .271/.340/.410, 10 HR, 6 SB, 109 OPS+
  7. Kevin Kiermaier, CF – .220/.284/.376, 7 HR, 10 SB, 82 OPS+
  8. Jake Bauers, 1B – .198/.316/.389, 11 HR, 5 SB, 96 OPS+
  9. Jesus Sucre, C – .215/.250/.260, 1 HR, 1 SB, 43 OPS+

Nick Ciuffo (73 OPS+) will probably see a start or two at catcher, and Carlos Gomez (80 OPS+), C.J. Cron (125 OPS+), and Austin Meadows (117 OPS+) will see some time in the lineup, as well.

Ryne Stanek with some serious #flow. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:00 PM EST): RHP Jonathan Holder vs. RHP Diego Castillo

A 24-year-old rookie, Castillo has been quite good for the Rays this year. He has a 3.25 ERA (127 ERA+) in 52.2 IP, spread across 10 starts and 31 relief appearances. That’s right in-line with his 3.33 FIP, as he has solid strikeout (9.9 K/9) and walk (3.1 BB/9) rates. He’s faced the Yankees six times this year, pitching to the following line: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 5 K. Castillo is a fastball-slider guy all the way, featuring a high-90s four-seamer and a high-80s slider.

The Yankees, meanwhile, announced earlier today that Holder will get tonight’s start. Aaron Boone hinted at a bullpen game at some point this week as the Yankees look to get their pitching staff lined up for the Wild Card Game next week. There’s a chance Holder will be used as an opener with Sonny Gray set to take over in the second inning, after Holder faces the top of the lineup.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/21) – 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K

Tuesday (7:00 PM EST): TBA vs. TBA

Wednesday (7:10 PM EST): TBA vs. TBA

Thursday (1:10 PM EST): TBA vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

The Yankees are trying to get their postseason rotation lined up and the Rays are using openers, so the starting pitchers for the majority of the series remain TBA. The Rays acquired Glasnow in the Chris Archer trade and he’s been league average for the Rays (4.11 ERA and 100 ERA+), throwing 50.1 IP with a 9.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Glasnow is similar to a young Dellin Betances. He’s got an upper-90s fastball and a hammer breaking ball. His strike-throwing ability varies on a game-by-game basis.

Last outing (vs. TOR on 9/22) – 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

The Rays bullpen has thrown 779.2 IP this year; the Angels are in second, with 606.0. That difference is greater than the difference between the Angels and the team with the fewest relief innings (the Indians with 440.0), so it’s kind of miraculous that the Rays bullpen is in the top-ten in all of baseball in adjusted-ERA this year. Their bullpen was showing signs of fatigue in late-July and early-August, but it has rebounded to the tune of a 110 ERA+ in the second-half.

Sergio Romo is nominally the team’s closer, picking up 5 saves so far this month, but he has struggled this month, allowing home runs in three of his last five appearances, and is being used a bit more sparingly. Ryan Yarbrough (3.88 ERA in 139.1 IP) is the team’s long-reliever, with Yonny Chirinos (3.68 ERA in 85.2 IP) second-in line for those longer appearances. Jose Alvarado, Adam Kolarek, and Andrew Kittredge have been playing big roles for them of late, as well.

Who (Or What) To Watch

It’s a rivalry series with both team’s having something on the line, regardless of however fleeting it may be for the Rays – what more do you need?