NY Yankees News, Information & Community

Yankeemetrics: Wild win, playoff ticket punched (Sept. 21-23)

September 24, 2018 by Katie Sharp

Win is a win
Survive and advance was the theme of Friday’s near-disaster series opener, as the Yankees staved off a late rally to beat the Orioles 10-8. The Yankees led 6-0 entering the fifth inning and 9-4 at the start of the eighth and somehow still needed Dellin Betances to get three outs in the ninth for the save.

CC Sabathia rebounded from a terrible start last week against the Blue Jays, limiting the Orioles to two runs across six innings. It snapped a 10-start winless streak vs. the O’s, the longest by a Yankee pitcher against them in the Divisional era (since 1969). And it was his 128th win as a Yankee, matching Jack Chesbro for 11th place on the franchise all-time list.

The parade of relievers that followed CC’s strong performance did their best to keep him from getting that milestone victory. Jonathan Loaisiga, A.J. Cole and David Robertson were pounded by the Orioles lineup, giving up a trio of longballs while getting only one out each. And for that ugly statline, they get our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series:

This was the first game in franchise history that they Yankees had three guys give up at least one homer while pitching no more than one-third of an inning.

Despite having three regulars on the bench, the Yankees still were able to explode for 10 runs on 10 hits. Aaron Hicks was one of the stars, reaching base four times (and scoring four times), while driving in a couple runs with a two-run homer in the fourth. It was his 25th home run, giving the Yankees five 25-homer players. That’s a nice round number ….

Aaron Hicks is 5th Yankee this season with 25+ HR, tying the franchise record set in 2009.

MLB record is 6 by 2003 Red Sox.

Gleyber Torres has 23 HR…

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 22, 2018

And a #FunFact to celebrate the underrated Hicks: in the last two decades, the only other Yankee leadoff batters to score four or more runs and hit a homer in the same game were Johnny Damon (April 29, 2006) and Derek Jeter (June 21, 2005).

Postseason bound
The Yankees officially punched their ticket to the playoff party with a dramatic, 11th-inning walk-off win on Saturday afternoon/night. The last time they clinched a postseason berth with a walkoff win, this happened:

On September 24, 1999, Alfonso Soriano cemented his name in the Yankee record books with his first career hit, a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th against the Rays that wrapped up the AL East title for the Yankees.

Fast-forward nearly two decades and Saturday’s hero was Aaron Hicks, who drilled a one-out double down the left field line in the bottom of the 11th inning, scoring Didi Gregorius to seal the historic win. It was Hicks’ third career walk-off hit and first with the Yankees. He is the first Yankee with a walk-off double in the 11th inning or later since Bernie Williams on August 27, 1998 against the Angels. And, just for fun, he joins this list of legends, Yankee centerfielders (since 1925) that have a walk-off hit against the Orioles/Brown franchise:

Aaron Hicks (Sept. 22, 2018)
Bernie Williams (1996 ALCS Game 1)
Mickey Mantle (Aug. 10, 1956)
Joe DiMaggio (Aug. 6, 1949)
Joe DiMaggio (July 13, 1938)

Blown lead, Bad Loss and Boo-birds
Less than 24 hours removed from one of the most exhilarating wins of the season, the Yankees crashed back to earth and capped off the Bronx version of the regular season with a depressing, uninspiring loss on Sunday afternoon. Thanks to another bullpen implosion they coughed up an early 3-0 lead, and the offense went M.I.A. after the first inning as it was held to no runs and just two hits in the final eight frames. The end result: a miserable 6-3 defeat to the 110-loss Orioles.

The turning point came in the sixth inning when A.J. Cole was called on to protect a 3-1 lead, and three batters later he was booed off the mound after all three guys scored, with two of them sending the ball into the seats. Only one other pitcher in franchise history had an outing at Yankee Stadium (old or new) in which he got no outs while giving up at least two homers and three runs: Steve Howe on September 24, 1995 against the Tigers.

Cole — who fortunately will not be on any playoff roster — has been awful over the past two months, with 21 runs and 26 hits (eight homers) allowed in his last 15 innings pitched (14 appearances) since July 31. And his struggles have been dumpster-fire terrible in four September outings:

A.J. Cole in September
16 batters faced
2.1 IP
7 Runs
4 HR
7 Hits

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) September 23, 2018

Rather than end on that miserable note, let’s celebrate another #MiggyMantle milestone. In the third inning, Miguel Andujar belted his 43rd double and 70th extra-base hit of the season. Those 43 doubles are the second-most ever by a Yankee rookie, one shy of the record set by Joe DiMaggio in 1936. Perhaps more impressive is the 70 extra-base hits for a guy as young as Andujar. Since the first Rookie of Year trophy was first handed out in 1947, three other American League rookies age 23 or younger have recorded 70 or more extra-base hits in a season: Nomar Garciaparra (1997), Mark McGwire (1987), and Fred Lynn (1975). Each of those three players won the AL Rookie Year award.

Thoughts following Didi Gregorius’ wrist injury

September 24, 2018 by Mike

Despite clinching a postseason spot, this past weekend did not go well for the Yankees. They lost a bullpen game to the 110-loss Orioles yesterday and also lost Didi Gregorius to torn cartilage in his right wrist. He suffered the injury when he slid into home plate on Aaron Hicks’ postseason berth clinching walk-off double Saturday night. Baseball is cruel. I have some thoughts on the injury, so let’s get to ’em.

1. For what it’s worth, Gregorius described it as a “slight” tear, and, as far as returning this season goes, he said his level of optimism is “high” because he’s already feeling better. That’s good. Certainly better than the alternative. Didi suffered the injury Saturday but felt fine the rest of the night. He woke up sore yesterday and went for tests, which revealed the cartilage tear. He was given a cortisone shot and now he and the Yankees are in wait-and-see mode. The hope is the cortisone shot will kick in and Gregorius will feel better in the coming days, and be able to return to the lineup at some point soon. The season ends one week from yesterday, so it has to be very soon. The internet tells me torn wrist cartilage is a fairly common baseball injury that can have a recovery time as short as a few days and as long as a few months. Every injury is different, so we’ll have to see whether Gregorius falls into the former recovery timetable or the latter. Fingers crossed.

2. So what do the Yankees do at shortstop in the interim? Probably exactly what they did when Gregorius was on the disabled list with his heel injury, meaning put Gleyber Torres at shortstop with Neil Walker and Ronald Torreyes filling in at second base. I love Torreyes, he’s a fun player and a quality utility guy, but I’d roll with Walker at second base full-time going forward. Torres at short, Walker at second, then replace Walker for defense in the late innings of close games. That’s the way I’d go until the Yankees clinch homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game, assuming they manage to do it at some point. Once they clinch — if they clinch! — they can relax a bit because their remaining games will become meaningless. Until then, Gleyber at short and Neil Walker is the way to go. Adeiny Hechavarria is a great defender. I don’t want to see him in the batter’s box more than I have to though.

3. Good thing the Yankees picked up Hechavarria, huh? Right before the August 31st postseason-eligibility deadline too. They’ve needed him more than I expected. He helped fill-in while Gregorius was out with his heel injury and he’s also stepped in as a defensive replacement pretty much whenever the Yankees are leading. Hechavarria can’t hit all — he owns a .252/.283/.345 (69 wRC+) overall batting line this year and is 4-for-18 (.222) with a homer for the Yankees — but he’s very good defensively, and if push comes to shove and the Yankees have to start him at shortstop while Gregorius is sidelined, his glove will make him something better than replacement level. At the time of the trade, it seemed like a bit of a weird out-of-nowhere move because the Yankees do have Walker and Torreyes and Tyler Wade as reserve middle infielder options, but gosh, Hechavarria sure has come in handy. Now he might have to take on an even larger role than defensive replacement and utility man.

4. With Gregorius out the Yankees are down to two left-handed hitters in the starting lineup, and they’re both switch-hitters: Aaron Hicks and Walker. There’s no reason to play Brett Gardner and Greg Bird over Andrew McCutchen and Luke Voit, respectively, right now. Until the top wildcard spot is clinched, McCutchen and Voit should play every single game. Didi’s injury leaves the Yankees really short on left-handed thump, which might not be a big deal this week, but it could become a real problem in the Wild Card Game. The Athletics have a very right-handed pitching staff — Ryan Buchter is their only lefty reliever and Brett Anderson is their only lefty starter, and he’s not expected to start the Wild Card Game — which means the Wild Card Game could become dominated by right-handed pitcher vs. right-handed batter matchups, at least when the Yankees are batting. That’s not good. Gregorius provided some lineup balance in addition to being an all-around awesome player. Torres is great and Walker is an okay fill-in. Neither guy is Didi though. Having to potentially go into the playoffs without him is a scary thought.

5. Know what makes this injury especially bad? The Yankees still don’t have a fully recovered Aaron Judge. Judge is 3-for-20 (.150) with seven strikeouts since returning from the disabled list and, while it is a very small sample, the average exit velocity of his 13 batted balls is 85.8 mph. Yikes. His timing is not there, understandably. Judge missed two months and didn’t have a proper minor league rehab assignment. Of course it’s taking him some time to get back up to speed. But now the Yankees have what amounts to a rehabbing Judge and no Gregorius, and they might have to go into the postseason with a rehabbing Judge and no Gregorius. That is a major bummer. A major bummer and a major blow to the offense. The team’s best hitter (best player, really) is not all the way back yet and their best left-handed hitter is on the shelf. There’s still enough firepower in the lineup to overcome that, at least in theory, but it sure would be nice to have everyone healthy and productive going into the postseason. Now that seems very unlikely to happen.

Fan Confidence Poll: September 24th, 2018

September 24, 2018 by Mike

Record Last Week: 4-2 (35 RS, 30 RA)
Season Record: 95-60 (798 RS, 636 RA, 93-62 expected record), WC spot clinched, +1.5 GU for HFA
Schedule This Week: Four games at Rays (Mon. to Thurs.); Three games at Red Sox (Fri. to Sun.)

Orioles 6, Yankees 3: Offense disappears after the first inning in final regular season home game

September 23, 2018 by Mike

What a mess of a home finale. An inexcusable loss, really. The Orioles had to get 27 outs from their bullpen and they still managed to hold the Yankees to four hits, including just two after the first inning. When the 2018 Yankees fall flat, they really fall flat. They lost Sunday’s series finale 6-3 and, as of this writing, they’re one game up on the Athletics in the loss column for homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game. Two, really, because the Yankees hold the tiebreaker. Oh, and by the way, Didi Gregorius is hurt. Potentially for the rest of the season. Baseball is bad, actually.

Three Runs In The First
Couldn’t have asked for a better start Sunday afternoon. J.A. Happ struck out the side on 16 pitches in the top of the first inning, then Alex Cobb had to exit the bottom half with a blister after only four pitches. That stinks for him — Cobb had been nursing a blister the last few days and it acted up again — but it was great news for the Yankees (in theory). Nine innings against the O’s bullpen? Sign me up.

Reliever Mike Wright Jr. inherited a 2-2 count from Cobb, walked Andrew McCutchen, walked Giancarlo Stanton, and walked Luke Voit to load the bases with no outs. Bases loaded with no outs seems to be the Yankee’ kryptonite this year. Rather than waste a(nother) prime opportunity, the Yankees pushed across three runs. Gleyber Torres hit a sacrifice fly to right field, Miguel Andujar lined a single to center, and Gary Sanchez blooped a single to shallow right.

Gleyber’s sacrifice fly was the team’s MLB best 56th sac fly of the season. Homers and sac flies. Two things the Yankees do better than any other team. Andujar ambushed a first pitch middle-middle heater for his single. Sanchez went down below the zone to dig out a first pitch slider. When you’re struggling like Gary, you’ll take hits however you can get ’em:

The hardest hit ball of the inning? Adeiny Hechavarria’s inning-ending line out to right field (99.5 mph). Go figure. I thought it had a chance to slice away from John Andreoli and get down for another run-scoring hit, but no luck. Andreoli made a nice sliding catch. I’m not sure Adam Jones gets to that ball based on what I’ve seen from him in right field the last two weeks. Oh well. A three-zip lead after one inning works for me.

The rest of the game did not work for me. After tagging Wright for three runs on two hits and three walks in the first inning, the Yankees had three baserunners the rest of the game. Andujar doubled with two outs in the third, Aaron Hicks drew a pinch-hit walk with one out in the seventh, and Giancarlo Stanton ripped a leadoff single in the eighth. That’s it. Two hits and one walk in eight innings against the Orioles bullpen? How awful. What a sad showing by the offense. This game should’ve been over before the bullpen ever had a chance to screw it up.

J.A. Stands For Just Arduous
Good gravy what a grind for J.A. Happ. Happ needed 107 pitches to get through five innings against the Orioles. The 2018 Orioles. He allowed five hits and four went for extra bases (three doubles, one home run), yet he held the O’s to one run on Tim Beckham’s long solo homer in the second inning. Happ’s final line: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR on 107 pitches. It was a grind all afternoon. His pitches by inning: 16, 24, 28, 17, 22. Yeesh.

Things could’ve been worse for Happ too. Neil Walker and Sanchez teamed up to cut a runner down at the plate in the fifth inning. Breyvic Valera tripled to left with one out, and, on Jonathan Villar’s weak tapper to first, Walker threw home and Sanchez applied the tag. Sanchez then threw Villar out trying to steal second to end the inning. So the final two outs of Happ’s five-inning battle came on outs on the bases, not on batters he retired. His four-seamer was all over the place and both his two-seamer and changeup were non-factors:

That’s how you end up with 25 total foul balls, including 12 in two-strike counts. Much like Lance Lynn on Saturday, Happ probably doesn’t get through five innings against a better team. He had to battle for every out against a bad Orioles lineup Sunday. This was almost certainly just a blip and one of those days. They happen. I sure hope we see a much better performance next time out though, in what could be a tune-up start for the Wild Card Game.

Blown by the Bullpen
Aaron Boone’s obsession with A.J. Cole has gone too far. That was the case like three weeks ago. But on Sunday, with most of the top relievers down due to their recent workloads, Boone again went to Cole in a close game, and again Cole let things get out of hand He entered with the Yankees up two runs the sixth inning. Three batters later, they were down one run. Double, homer, homer. Cole has allowed 21 runs and 35 baserunners (and eight homers) in his last 14 appearances and 15 innings. Dude has to go. Brian Cashman has to take him away from Boone.

In case you’re wondering — and I’m sure many of you are — here’s what the bullpen workload situation looked like going into Sunday’s game:

Dellin Betances: Pitched each of the last three days.
Zach Britton: Pitched the last two days and three of the last five days.
Aroldis Chapman: Pitched two of the last three days and just came back from the 10-day DL.
Chad Green: Pitched two of the last three days and three of the last five days.
Jonathan Holder: Pitched three of the last four days.
David Robertson: Pitched two of the last three days.

Robertson was the only one of those guys who didn’t pitch Saturday and, presumably, he was being saved for the later innings. It’s silly, I know, but that’s what managers do. They save their best relievers for the later innings. Happ bowed out after five innings and someone was going to have to get outs in the sixth and seventh (and eighth?) innings. Boone went to Cole and it backfired spectacularly. Why not Sonny Gray or Luis Cessa or even Justus Sheffield? How many more times do we need to see Cole get bombed to know he shouldn’t pitch in close games?

Once Cole did his thing, Tommy Kahnle came in and made it worse. He allowed an insurance run on a double, a ground ball to move the runner up, and a sacrifice fly. Cessa pitched the final three innings and did allow an eighth inning insurance run on an infield single and a double, which makes him the Yankees’ most effective reliever of the day. The drop-off from the regular late-inning guys to everyone else is pretty drastic. Fortunately Cole and Kahnle won’t be on the postseason roster. To bad that doesn’t help the Yankees now.

Leftovers
Andujar’s third inning double was his 43rd of the season, so he is one away from tying Joe DiMaggio’s franchise rookie doubles record. The AL rookie record is 47 by Fred Lynn. That is well within reach with seven games to play. Also, Andujar has 70 extra-base hits overall this season. That is the third most by a rookie in franchise history. DiMaggio had 88 in 1936 and Aaron Judge had 79 last season.

Two hits for Andujar (single, double) and one apiece for Sanchez and Stanton (singles). McCutchen, Stanton, Voit, and Hicks drew the walks. Again, the Yankees had five baserunners in the span of seven batters in the first inning and then three baserunners in the final eight innings against the worst team in the last 15 years. That is really pathetic.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
ESPN has the box score and updated standings and MLB has the video highlights. Even though the Yankees have clinched, I’ll link you to the postseason odds anyway, just in case you want to see what else is going on around MLB. Here’s our Bullpen Workload page and here’s the win probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The final week of the 2018 regular season. The Yankees have four games in Tampa and three games in Boston. The starting pitchers for Monday night’s series opener at Tropicana Field are listed as TBD. In fact, the starting pitchers for the entire series are listed as TBD, for both teams. The Rays will probably use an opener Monday. (Actual starting pitchers Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell pitched the last two days, so it won’t be them.) Luis Severino is lined up to start Monday, though the Yankees could shift things around to get everyone situated for the Wild Card Game. We’ll see.

Gregorius out with torn cartilage in wrist, return uncertain

September 23, 2018 by Mike

Following today’s loss Aaron Boone announced Didi Gregorius tore cartilage in his right wrist sliding into home plate on Aaron Hicks’ walk-off double yesterday night. Gregorius went for an MRI today and received a cortisone shot, and will be re-evaluated in a few days. It’s not certain when he’ll return.

Here’s the play that led to the injury. It looked like a fairly clean slide, but, after looking at it again, you can see Didi jams his right wrist into the ground. I guess that’s when the injury happened.

“I have some movement in there,” said Gregorius following today’s game. “They say things like this happens to other players. Some of them have played through it. We’re going to see how it goes. If it feels better, I’ll be back in there so we can still make that playoff decision.”

“I would not want to sit out and watch that (Wild Card Game),” added Didi. He said his wrist felt fine yesterday, but he woke up with pain today. For what it’s worth, Didi said his level of optimism is “high” because it already feels better. Fingers crossed.

Even without a fracture, wrist injuries can be very tricky, as we just learned with Aaron Judge. Even if Gregorius responds well to the cortisone shot and is able to return to the lineup in a few days, the injury could easily take a bite out of his production. Hopefully he responds well, but this is potentially very bad news.

The Yankees do have options to replace Gregorius at shortstop should he miss the duration of the season. Adeiny Hechavarria, who played short today, is a defensive standout who could play the position full-time. (Good thing they got him before the postseason-eligibility deadline, huh?) The Yankees could also move Gleyber Torres to short and go with Neil Walker or Ronald Torreyes at second. Either way, losing Didi is a huge blow. He is close to irreplaceable.

Game 155: The Final Home Game

September 23, 2018 by Mike

The Yankees are going to the postseason. They clinched a spot yesterday, but their work isn’t done. They still have to secure homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game and that might take a while because the Athletics keep winning. With eight games to play, the magic number for homefield advantage in that Wild Card Game is six because the Yankees hold the tiebreaker.

There is where I note that, when I mentioned the magic number to clinch the tiebreaker over the A’s was four yesterday, I was wrong. My bad. The Yankees have the tiebreaker clinched already. It’s not possible for the two teams to finish with the same overall record while the A’s win enough intradivision games and the Yankees lose enough intradivision games for the A’s to take over the tiebreaker. Long story short, there are three possible scenarios now:

Yankees finish with the better record and have homefield advantage.
Athletics finish with the better record and have homefield advantage.
Yankees and A’s finish the same record and the Yankees get homefield advantage through the tiebreaker, which is intradivision record because they tied the season series.

That’s it. It’s mathematically impossible for the Yankees and A’s to finish with the same record and the A’s to hold the tiebreaker. So that’s one less thing to worry about. The magic number for the top wildcard spot is six with eight games to go. Let’s get that wrapped up as quickly as possible, mmmkay? Here are the lineups for the final home game of the regular season:

New York Yankees
1. LF Andrew McCutchen
2. RF Giancarlo Stanton
3. DH Luke Voit
4. 2B Gleyber Torres
5. 3B Miguel Andujar
6. 1B Neil Walker
7. C Gary Sanchez
8. SS Adeiny Hechavarria
9. CF Brett Gardner

LHP J.A. Happ

Baltimore Orioles
1. CF Cedric Mullins
2. 2B Breyvic Valera
3. SS Jonathan Villar
4. 1B Trey Mancini
5. DH Tim Beckham
6. 3B Renato Nunez
7. LF Joey Rickard
8. C Austin Wynns
9. RF John Andreoli

RHP Alex Cobb

Cloudy and chilly in New York today. Fall weather. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and TBS out-of-market. Enjoy the game. Could be the last time you’ll see Yankee Stadium until next year!

Injury Updates: Aaron Hicks (ankle) is sore but tests showed no break after he fouled that pitch into his ankle last night. He’s expected back for the Tampa series.

Gary and the Terrible, Horrible….Part Two

September 23, 2018 by Matt Imbrogno

A while ago, I wrote a post about Gleyber Torres’ relative struggles at the plate since he came off the DL. From that point on, he’s taken off, hitting .321/.397/.481 (not including Saturday) since that post on August 19. I thought–optimistically–that maybe if I did the same thing for Gary Sanchez, which I did last week, maybe he’d hit a hot streak, too. Looks like lightning didn’t strike twice. There’s still a few games left, of course, but I’m not going to be holding my breath on a turnaround any time soon.

Last week, we took a look at the fact that Sanchez just isn’t hitting the ball hard enough and is struggling against sliders and curves. Today, let’s take a look at how Gary’s plate discipline is doing.

Considering I started last week’s post by pointing out his high walk rate, this seems ironic. At first glance, it may not seem a great place to start. In addition the the walk rate, according to his profile, his chase rate is down from last year’s mark of 32.6 to 29.6. This is part of an overall trend, given that his swing percentage in general is down from 47.9 to 43.5. He’s, seemingly, been more selective this year, swinging at fewer pitches both in and out of the zone. In general, selectiveness at the plate is something we want to see a player demonstrate–especially when he’s seeing fewer pitches in the zone, as Gary is this year–but it hasn’t quite worked out for Sanchez this year. The reason why might not be readily visible in his overall swing profile.

That swing profile is broad and general and won’t differentiate between what good or bad pitches a player swings/doesn’t swing at. A pitch in the zone is in the zone, regardless of if it’s on the outside corner or right over the heart of the plate. Below are Gary’s zone profiles from 2017 followed by 2018. The former will be used as a basis of comparison for the later.

The first thing that sticks out to me is the middle of the zone, in, middle, and out. His swing rates on all three of those seemingly prime hitting locations has dropped by about 3%, 8%, and 5% respectively. Staying in the zone, but moving up, he’s swung at the middle-up and up-and-in strikes much more frequently this year. Both of those pitch locations can be hard to handle and it’s hard to get good lift on those balls to make them line drives or deep fly balls. Going back to the aforementioned Statcast swing profile, there’s an interesting note there. Despite seeing a similar number of pitches labeled as ‘meatballs’ this year as he did last year,Sanchez has swung at 8.6% fewer ‘meatballs’ in 2018.

There have also been jumps in his swing percentage on balls just out of the zone up, middle and away. Again, hard pitches to get on top of and do damage with.

Conversely, the pitches down in the strike zone–where a batter could more easily lift and drive them–have seen fewer overall swings than they did last year. On the plus side, he’s laid off the tempting pitches just below the zone, in, middle, and away.

So while Sanchez’s overall swing profile tells a story of a hitter who’s gotten more selective, when we look at it more closely, we see that his selectivity is being distributed to the wrong places. Obviously, injuries are a big part of why Sanchez’s season has been a disappointment. But the ‘misplaced’ selectiveness and the general lack of hard contact help explain why it hasn’t been a good season for Gary, even in times of health.