Fan Confidence Poll: July 6th, 2009

Bats, bullpen provide relief for ineffective Joba
Time For A Reality Check

Record Last Week: 5-1 (36 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record: 48-33 (451 RS, 390 RA), 1.0 GB
Opponents This Week: vs. Toronto (1 game), @ Minnesota (3 games), @ Anaheim (3 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current play, roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Bats, bullpen provide relief for ineffective Joba
Time For A Reality Check
  • Evan NYC

    Confidence is standing at an 8. I’m feeling really good about the team right now, but with Wang going down that is adding a question mark into the rotation. I guess Wang has always been a question mark himself this year so I’m not sure what to expect. Offense looks good and the pitching for the most part has been solid. Yankees keep on winning. Life is good.

  • http://eemack.blogspot.com Jackson

    Pretty solid turnaround after the debacles against Washington and Florida. Confidence is very high.

  • A.D.

    Shame CC couldn’t sweep it against the M’s. Still holding strong with an 8

  • Reggie C.

    7.

    Joba’s start bothers the heck out of me. CC Sabathia didn’t have his best start but the man still pitched into the 6th inning. Joba’s continued struggle with handling 0-2 counts has killed what should be quicker innings. Stop trying to locate a 2 seamer as an out-pitch and throw the slider. Any pitcher would be tired 3 innings in if they had to work out the stretch as much as Joba has had. Missing velocity is a less major concern, and should quell the talk of Joba throwing harder out the ‘pen. Can’t keep referring to mph readings from 2 seasons ago.

    I think Aceves or Mitre can hold Wang’s spot for the intermediate and keep us competitive. If this is indeed a simple case of bursitis (momentary that is) then alittle rest for Wang isn’t the worst thing.

  • Jorge Steinbrenner

    Standing strong at “8.” The pieces continue to fall in place for this team. Would have even considered a “9,” but it’s an unknown as to whether a Sergio Mitre could hold down the fort in Wang’s spot, or if switching Aceves or Hughes (probably the former at this point) over would leave us weaker in the bullpen. yes, Joba worries me in the short-term, but not in the long term. he’ll either develop further or not. i’d bet strong on the former.

    all we need to do is outlast the team ahead of us and, just like what i see when i look out the window today, blue skies will be everywhere.

  • jon

    AJ Burnettes last 4 starts

    3-1 with a .99 ERA

    • Zach

      but hes not 42 and doesnt throw a knuckleball so the MSM cant talk about him

  • pete

    Really off topic, but does anyone think this would be a slightly better offensive stat than OPS?: (TB + BB + SB – CS – .5GIDP)/TPA
    basically all bases acquired minus all extra outs created over all plate appearances.

    • Ed

      I think double plays aren’t frequent enough to have much of an impact. Jeter had a freak season last year with an abnormally high amount of them, which is the only reason people around here think about it much. You’d really need a year like last year, where Jeter didn’t have much power but hit into a lot of DPs to have that have any noticeable impact.

      Other than the GIDP part, I’ve been thinking about a similar statistic for a while. I think you need something like that to get a more realistic value for a guy like Gardner or Ellsbury.

      • pete

        yeah but its not really meant to gauge offensive ability (sb/cs ratio can depend a lot on coaching philosophy too) or be an indicator of future production, but rather to sum all of the outs vs. bases. if a guy does have a tendency to hit into DPs, he will have slightly less value because of this, and if a guy has a tendency to stay out of them, he will have slightly more. I’m not sure why i put it as .5GIDP though, that doesn’t really make any sense, i think i was still asleep when i posted that. It should just be -GIDP. But since everybody hits into a few and almost nobody hits into a ton, it would not have too great an impact.

      • AndrewYF

        He didn’t have a freak season. Damon just had a good season of OBP, and Jeter is one of the game’s most extreme groundball hitters.

        It’s been so nice not having to watch Jeter kill first-inning rallies by making two outs in one at bat.

    • A.D.

      Yeah, something like speed adjusted OPS, where SB are taken into account as slugging would work to. As a walk is almost as good as a hit, a hit and a SB is almost as good as a 2B

      • pete

        but shouldn’t they be equal? i mean for all intents and purposes, they are the same thing, right. although i suppose if you wait till an out is made and then go that could conceivably be a worse outcome, and obviously with runners on base a hit is more likely to produce a run than a walk. all stats are imperfect though.

        • Ed

          I think his “a walk is almost as good as a hit” was a nod to difference when runners are on base.

    • Lou

      There are so many formula’s out there, not sure we need another one. But I think yours has a problem with the stolen bases. This is saying, basically, that a SB is = to a single, and that a caught stealing is equal to a stolen base.

      You need to have something like an 80% success rate not to hurt your team in stealing bases, give or take a few % points depending upon the teams offense type.

  • LiveFromNewYork

    I’m back to an 8 after being at a 7 for a week.

  • jjyank

    Went with an 8 as well. We’ve looked great lately, our pitching is finally rounding into form, and our bats have been better, and I expect them to continue on this path. You know guys like A-rod aren’t going to hit be hitting .244 next half, for example.

  • Accent Shallow

    I’m still at an 8. This is probably the best Yankee team of the past few years, but there’s still a few questions marks.

    -Alex’s health (although it looks like with regular rest that he’s the same player he always was)
    -The rotation (CC has been a horse, but he hasn’t pitched as well on a rate basis as the past three years. Andy, Joba, and AJ have been inconsistent, although AJ has been lights out recently)
    -Wang/Hughes situation (is CMW only going to be out a month? What sort of pitcher will he be on his return? If it’s going to be more than a month, you have to consider Phil in the rotation, no?)
    -The ability of the minors to provide depth (appears to have a few guys who can step in to fill backup roles, but the impact players are at least a year away)

    As for overall organizational health, I wasn’t crazy about the ’08 and ’09 drafts, but it’s so hard for an amateur like myself to judge these things. We’ll see in a few years.

  • AndrewYF

    The Yankees’ pitching staff hadn’t had a month like this June since April of 2003. That’s really more a statement, though, on how bad the Yankees’ pitching has been.

    It’s also disappointing that the Yankees still only managed to go 15-11, despite the stellar pitching. The bats did put up a .788 OPS, but that’s still above average. 140 RS to 102 RA gives a .640 WP, so Pythagoreanally, they should have been more like 16-10 or 17-9.

    • AndrewYF

      I lied, 2003’s Sept/Oct pitching split, where they gave up only 3.53 runs per game, was much better. Still, though. This team right now is their best team since 2003.

  • zs190

    Still 8. Nice results, but we lost Wang to injury and Joba has struggled a little.

    FIP is up to 4.75, and his command has gotten worse every year, 2.25 to 3.5 to 4.36 BB/9, that’s pretty ugly. His velocity is definitely down a lot for whatever reason and I think as a result, he is nibbling more. Agree with everyone in previous thread that we need to figure out what’s wrong with Joba’s velocity, one way or another.

    • jjyank

      Any ideas? I, like just about everyone else, am starting to get concerned. Is he injured, is it mechanics, is he afraid to throw too hard in an effort to pitch further into games? The talent and ability is there, as we’ve seen from Joba’s general ability to avoid clunkers even when he’s not on top of his game (yesterday being the exception).

      I don’t mind him throwing the occasional 90-92 fastball early in the count, but I’d like to see him dial it up to at least 94-95 as an out-pitch later in the count. Just haven’t been seeing that lately.

  • Dela G

    def an 8. Im confident, but i hate playing the angels. I am praying that we sweep them. How the hell were the red sox finished playing on the west coast for the season in mid june? Unbelievable how their schedule is situated year after year.

  • Little Bill

    10 again. My confidence has never once wavered.

  • JimT

    The Red Sox are finished with the West Coast because they have already completed two trips out west. It wasn’t exactly to thier liking. They certainly didn’t request last years trip to Japan or this years two early trips to the West Coast. The schedule presents problems / issues for every team. To suggest that MLB favors any team in its scheduling is silly. Its just the randomness of baseball, sometimes you catch a team hot, other times cold. With the exception of inter-league everyone within your division plays the same schedule.

    Should be an interesting second half with only 1 game seperating the Red Sox and Yankees. Both teams have talented squads, its likely to come down to who can stay healthy, who has the better organizational depth and who can improve “on the fly”. The Red Sox have two quality “arms” at Pawtucket but little in the way of everyday players. It seems to me that most of the Yankees minor league talent is also below the AAA level. It will be interesting to see how each front office moves to cover injuries and poor performances. It can really sap a teams long term health trading AA and A level prospects to fix the big league teams short term needs.

    Also worth watching are the “bull pens”. The Red Sox relief corps had an excellent first half but has been scuffling of late. The Yankees pen has its ups and downs but has been much better lately. What are we going to see throughout the second half? In particular will the loss of Wang have its effects on the entire staff including the “pen”? The baseball war of attrition begins.

    ps Shouldn’t forget the Rays, they are capable a strong second half as well.

    • Whitey14

      Very nice post Jim, I can’t find a damn point in it to argue ;-)

  • Sam

    What’s going on with Damaso Marte? Is he out for the year?

    • jjyank

      I think he’s on the mend, but not sure what the timetable is.

    • Accent Shallow

      He’s out indefinitely. I believe that Cashman suggested that he (Marte, not Cashman) may need exploratory surgery to determine what’s wrong with his (again, Marte’s, not Cashman’s) shoulder.

  • King of Fruitless Hypotheticals

    Was an 8, Berria is gone, now a 9.

    • jjyank

      You’re saying that a 48 year MLB veteran wouldn’t help the team?

      I decided to go the PeteAbe route and go with an age joke haha.

  • Lou

    7 here. The Yanks are one of several good teams, and I don’t love their rotation in the post season.

  • YankeeScribe

    I’m still at a 7.

    Postives

    – Pitching has been good overall inspite of CC and Joba’s starts
    – Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, and Mark Teixera are coming out of their slumps
    – Eric Hinske was a nice addition to the bench

    Negatives

    – THE LEAGUE VIEWS CANO IN THE 5-HOLE IS AN AUTOMATIC OUT WITH RUNNERS ON BASE

    – Joba hates pitching at Yankee Stadium
    – There’s nowhere in the Yankees’ lineup to put Jesus Montero’s bat this season. DH/catcher/1st baseman in 2010?

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