Dan Haren and the three bears

Royals slap around Mitre to top Yanks
Game 97: Is today the day?
Dan Haren. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

By now you’ve been inundated with rumor after rumor and discussion after discussion on how much value the Yankees would give up to receive D-Backs pitcher Dan Haren. The Yankees have said that they’re not willing to give up Joba Chamberlain, Ivan Nova, Z-Mac, Banuelos and eating salary. No, I have no new news to report. With other teams balking and Arizona hemorrhaging cash, it makes sense for the Yankees to wait it out and see the asking price drop. So what would you give up to get Haren? Remember, we’re talking the most you’d put toward the center of the table.

There are very good reasons to pursue Haren –he’s a borderline ace/great #2 with a very attractive below-market contract, which would give the team a great second starter, keep Hughes’ inning limit in check, and really hedge their other rotation concerns. No need to rush Andy, and it also limits some lingering concerns about AJ Burnett.

On the other side, Haren really isn’t a need, that’s still around $30 million they’d be adding to payroll, at present it would be a heavy prospect loss, and the addition may adversely impact the pursuit of Cliff Lee.

Before I get to my own personal high offer, let’s first knock down a few points.

Selling Low?

People continue to say the Yankees would be “selling low” on Joba to trade him off when he’s pitching so poorly. Yet, I don’t see it that way. Clearly, his value is high for the Diamondbacks. Their bullpen is remarkably inept. Maybe they overvalue the impact of closers. Whatever the case, if his value now is high enough to be the main piece that gets a top 20 pitcher in baseball (while giving up what appear to be 2 back-end rotation guys, a promising mature lefty in Banuelos), isn’t that enough for Yankee fans? What could Joba get you if you ‘sold high’ on him? He’s going to hit arbitration soon, and for this team he’s been a very mixed bag. Dan Haren is probably the ceiling on what Joba could get you if his value is much higher. And Dan Haren on a team-friendly deal is not a bad thing at all.

Beyond that, as Artisteve at TYU points out, it doesn’t appear the Yankees have much faith in Joba as a starter going forward. From their perspective that’s not unreasonable (though I think they’ve botched the handling along the way, though Joba certainly should be as responsible for his performances; hard to gauge). If you think Dan Haren would be overall more valuable for the team over the next three years than Nova, Joba, Z-Mac, and Banuelos would be, you certainly pull the trigger.

However, there is more to that. I saw a great comment yesterday, one that Moshe Mandel of TYU pointed out. steve (different one) notes that contrary to the belief of some, it’s not that one player holds up the deal, but rather, adding that one additional piece that tips the scales in the wrong direction. Maybe losing Joba isn’t a big deal. Maybe even adding the salary of Haren and giving up Nova is something they’d be willing to do. But an additional piece, an asset they clearly value, like Banuelos or Z-Mac is just too much for them. That asset would be there to offset some kind of other loss, and thus, would be too steep a price for what the team may consider just a luxury. At the same token, you can’t just offer up Nova, Z-Mac and Ramiro Pena and expect them to jump. That porridge is too cold.

The Dollar, Dollar Bills, Y’all

On the financial side, it preliminarily looks like it could work. Financially, the team should have close to $80 million coming off payroll next year. Of course, with Jeter and Mariano, you’re probably looking at $30 million next season in contracts. So we’re down to $50. And even with Haren, you’d still be looking at another pitcher at over $11 million, so we’re down to $24-25 million. (Drop even further if that pitcher next year is Cliff Lee.)

Heard this: It could be Andy's last year. Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP

With the bullpen needing some improvement and the DH situation looking cloudy, in addition to arbitration to Hughes, salary jumps to Teix, Granderson, and Swisher, we’re probably down to around $18 million. Of course, this is all highly dependent on a myriad of factors, but let’s be clear — there is a very good chance that Haren and Lee for around $32 million is a realistic possibility next year. It’s basically Andy, Javy and Kei Igawa being replaced by those two.

But I want it now!

On a personal level, I’d be a bit disappointed if the Yankees didn’t get Haren, even if it’s Joba, Nova, Z-Mac and (gulp) Banuelos. That’s right, push comes to shove, it’s five minutes before the trade deadline, I include Banuelos, Nova, Z-Mac and Joba, while taking on Chris Snyder (I’ll explain in a bit) and the salary of Haren (which is a completely reasonable salary considering his performance). Of course, there’s no reason to bet against oneself, so I suspect the price tag will drop, but I could live with that offer.

Banuelos, to me, is the hardest part of that. While there’s certainly value in back-end starters like Nova and Z-Mac, I don’t have a terrible amount of faith in them, and they have far more value as trade pieces to the Yankees than they do as actual players. Joba, if not given the opportunity and right amount of leash to be a top-flight starter, holds below-average value to the Yankees. I like Joba as a talent, but he may not suit the needs and philosophy of the organization, at least not this year, probably not next year either. Banuelos is a tantilizing talent. A lefty with great poise and very good stuff, he could be a star some day. But he might not be. He’s under 20-years-old and in A-ball. It would be a damn shame to lose him, but there are still a few levels for him to jump and he’s still a “prospect”. Tough to swallow, but if that’s what helps get an established #1.5 starter, I’m willing.

Chris Snyder is an overpaid pseudo-backup catcher, but a fairly good player. He has 15 HR pop, good on-base skills, and is defensively a pretty good catcher. The team could legitimately pair him with Jorge Posada for the rest of the season, who’s missed quite a bit of time to a host of nagging injuries over the past few years. Boom, there’s your DH, even if Jorge does whine about it. If nothing else, limiting the playing time of Francisco Cervelli is a big benefit to the lineup. (Sorry, Blue Eyes.)

D-backs catcher Chris Snyder. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

With Snyder being under contract only through 2011 (albeit with a moderate-sized buyout in 2012), Montero could work as a rotating DH with Jorge. Montero, under this scenario, would be splitting time at catcher with Snyder. Snyder’s gone in 2012, where it seems a good bet Romine would be ready, at least in some capacity. Either way, Snyder (for $5.5 million) may be a little expensive, but a short contract that fills a need and allows a good deal of lineup versatility. Considering the other catchers are either some-glove, no-bat or all-bat, no-glove, I think that’s reasonable, though if they could pay half of that cost, it would be gravy. Hell, trade them Cervelli if they eat some of Snyder’s salary.

Dan Haren would of course slot behind CC and Hughes would return to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. I’ve been extremely pleased with Phil’s performance on a whole this year, but he’s near his innings limit and has had some trouble finishing off batters over the course of the season. With Joba gone, the latter part of the bullpen would appear in much better shape.

Moving to next year, it’s not unreasonable to think a 1-5 of CC, Lee, Haren, Hughes, AJ is possible. Haren may or may not knock Lee’s price down this off-season, and if nothing else, provides some sort of contingency plan if CC decides to opt-out and takes the Yankees on an expensive joyride. Don’t underestimate the closing of the Yankees’ window. Jeter, Mariano, Posada, A-Rod may not have many more very good seasons left. Adding two of the top pitchers for the next few years could do a tremendous amount to strike while they still can.

So having rambled for 1200 words, I ask what, if anything, your max offer for Dan Haren would be? Remember, it needs to be a bit painful. (Unless it’s Betemit and Jeff Marquez for Swisher, of course.)

For more of my incessant chatter, check out Mystique and Aura (though I’ve been busy at work lately and you won’t find much current information to check out. But whatevs, if you’re there, look at Steve’s stuff. He’s a less-neglectful parent).

Royals slap around Mitre to top Yanks
Game 97: Is today the day?
  • dave


    • JMK

      No way that gets it done. Melancon has seriously regressed, Z-Mac has majorly struggled (though they seem to like him, partly I suspect, because of his father’s status in the origanization). Not one piece overwhelms, let alone wows you.

      • Abbey

        I don’t believe Frankie Cervelli is going to be traded. He is too good a defensive catcher. Yankees mgmt, front office etc are very happy with him.
        Agree, he does not have power, so what, if he can maintain his OBP at an acceptable level and continues to be clutch as he was early in the season, he will be sharing catching duties with Posada this year. For the next season (assumming Posada is still available)it will likely will be the same combination.

        • Total Dominication

          Listen, your hardon for Cervelli is rediculous. He doesn’t have a OBP close to “aceptable”, and clutch is bs.

          (first comment since returning home!)

          • Abbey

            You are entitled to your opinion.
            Great defensive skills, young,eager to continue improving.
            Pitching staff enjoys having him behind the plate
            Something wrong with that?

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

              No bat at all. He’s never going to be a starter for the Yankees. It’s one thing to be fond of him but your love of him is a bit ridiculous.

              • Abbey

                Its not a matter of fondness. Its an opinion.
                I did not say he was going to be the Yankees starting catcher. He shares catching duties with Posada this year and next year with either Posada or a trade for a catcher.
                Is there something wrong with this statement???

                • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H


      • dave

        Saunders and some 2nd tier prospects from the Angels is better? And they have to pay Saunders too. No team needed to give them as much as everyone here was suggesting. They were dumping salary — and Haren is having a bad year.

  • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

    Haren may or may not knock Lee’s price down this off-season,

    This is a strong point. People are saying you can’t fit Lee’s $23 million or so in the payroll with Haren, but if the Yankees aren’t as “all in” on Lee as possible, who’s going to pay him that much? If the Yankees aren’t jumping the market on Lee like they did Sabathia, they could just get him for less money in the end.

    • JMK

      Yup. It remains a possibility. I think they ultimately get him. Somewhere around $20 million. That’s definitely doable with Haren’s salary when you discount Joba’s arb, Igawa, Andy and Javy.

      • Rob

        What do you do if Pettitte wants another one year deal? How can they simply let him go when he’d be cost controlled and while he’s still effective?

        Haren scares me because of the HR rates. What would happen to those in the AL Beast?

    • mikebk

      only team probably with the money and the need is the mets.

    • Jay

      I think if Cuban owns the Rangers, he would pay him. I could see the Angels paying him. Possibly the Cubs if Ricketts wants to make a splash.

      Although most of these may be a reach, I don’t think it’s safe to simply say no one would pay him.

      • mikebk

        i think the angels throw the money at carl crawford instead a pitcher like lee

      • Bernard

        Love this point. Cuban is an enormous wild card, he’d definitely shell out to keep Lee and if Texas makes a legit postseason run this year…

        Would it stun anyone to see Cuban come in and have a MASSIVE offseason? Something along the lines of re-signing Lee and Guerrero, signing Carlos Pena, a decent aging SP (such as Aaron Harang) and Carl Crawford (a Texas native, it’s worth noting).

        • http://bloggingfromthebleachers.wordpress.com Aaron S.

          Let’s not discount the Ryan/Greenberg ownership group yet either. If they are able to actually take ownership of this franchise (and it seems a longshot at this point) they could be factors in keeping Lee in Texas beyond the end of the season. Ryan is a big proponent of workhorse type pitchers and Lee fits that mold perfectly.

          Plus, if the Yankees aren’t over-bidding for his services then Lee will be open to signing almost anywhere. Under the right circumstances (i.e. Texas’ ownership situation getting resolved somehow) we could see him stay in Texas.

          And for the record, I’d love to see Cuban owning a team. Be it Texas or one elsewhere.

    • YankeeGrunt

      I just don’t see Lee as an obvious signing, ala CC (and yes I know he has an opt-out clause and he may use it, but it’s far from obvious he gets anywhere near the A-Rod treatment in this economy). He’s older and while he may age well he may not; tough to bank on something that uncertain. Couple with a Yanks roster with a lot of medium and long-term deals for 30+ stars and you could be paving the way for a mid-2000’s redux.

  • dave

    Who’s gonna add Haren’s money these days? Even the Cliff Lee rental involved some offsetting of salary. Only a small handful of teams can take on Haren’s salary; the Yankees are one of those teams. They don’t have to give up good prospects and money — just good prospects OR money.

    • Edwantsacracker

      If Haren were only under contract for this year I would agree with you. Since the Diamondbacks would be losing his production for years, not just this year, they want some players. Its not unreasonable.

      • dave

        Since they view only Kennedy and Upton as untouchable, it seems that dumping salary is there primary goal. If it were about production they’d just keep Haren as part of their core.

    • Brien Jackson

      The problem with that is that he’s really only owed about $4 million the rest of this year, after which point teams can reorganize their roster in the off-season. I don’t see any reason any potential contender would have a problem taking on a $12.75 million salary for a pitcher of Haren’s caliber.

  • Scout

    I agree with the post, and I like the off-season flexibility it gives the Yankees.

    One concern not addressed here, though, are Haren’s first-half/second-half splits. He does seem to fade down the stretch. If it is an overuse or conditioning problem, the Yankees might fix it next year, but not this season.

  • mikebk

    the only guy you mentioned I dont want to deal is Man-Ban. Manny is probably the 3rd best prospect in the system right now who if not for the appendectomy that cost him time early in the year would probably be in AA right now as a 19 year old.

    Joba, Nova, Z-Mac is plenty fine by me.

  • Mike Pop

    Joba, Nova, and McCallister would be the ideal package. Haren is the real deal, has been an outstanding pitcher over the past 6 years and has went over the 200 IP mark each time(not this year yet). This is the type of guy you give up a lot to get in my opinion, especially when he’s under such reasonable contract terms, even more reasonable for the NYY.

  • BadaBling

    Nova, Z-Mac, Joba and Cervelli. IF part of the salary is picked up by the D-Backs. Only include Frankie if Synder is involved. I don’t include Banuelos, under any circumstances. Now if it’s a salary dump and the Yanks eat the entire deals of Haren and Snyder then I’d try to get the deal done without Joba or any C prospects and include two or three lesser prospects. I just realisticly don’t see a deal done without Joba. I love me some Joba but, Haren > Joba for the next 3 years. Have Haren fill in for Andy then when Hughes innings limits are reached have Hughes go to the 8th by then Andy will be 100%. Have Robertson or Albie take then 8th until Andy gets back. Winner winner chicken dinner!

    • RL

      Based on the little I know about the Yankee prospects (only what I read on line, too far away to actually see any of them play), I’d have to agree with this deal. Adding Cervelli and getting Snyder gives the team some insurance this year and next. Sounds look a good “best offer”. Of course, if this deal goes down to the wire, perhaps a little less should be given away. If it’s today or tomorrow, do the deal at this price.

  • mikebk

    maybe a more general question, but why in the Haren conversation has there not been the same general thought that if they swung the deal that we move Javy for a guy like Werth as there was in the Lee conversation? not saying that is something I want to do, just interesting the difference. I assume at least some of it is due to andy’s injury.

    • vin

      I think a lot of it is due to Andy’s injury and to Hughes ineffectiveness of late as he creeps up on his innings limit.

    • Poopy Pants

      I think that was mostly people assuming that would happen.

    • Scout

      The Phillies seem to have little interest in Javy.

  • dave

    I don’t get the Joba logic. The rest of Rivera’s body may reach the end before his arm does — so who’s the closer of the future for the Yankees? They’ll need one soon. We know Joba has the stuff — and the mentality — b/c we’ve seen it. Let him get straightened out here while Mo can still pitch.

    • Pete

      I, personally, am of the belief that Joba will never, EVER be the Yankees closer (unless something has gone terribly wrong). If he regains his old consistency with his stuff and command, then he’ll be good enough to start. If he doesn’t, he’s not good enough to close. The only middle ground for Joba (between starter and out of baseball) is as an inconsistent middle reliever.

      If Joba returns to his 2007-2008 levels, then putting him in the bullpen would be as much a waste as it was then. And, to be perfectly honest, even if he did become an elite, Mariano-like closer, I’d MUCH rather have Dan Haren, especially at the price he is at.

      • dave

        I wouldn’t call Joba’s bullpen contributions a waste. His dominance in that role created “Joba-Mania”. Also, no one mentioned who would be the closer other than Rivera. What’s the alternative? Is there a better candidate in the Yankees system? Are we gonna sign a K-Rod-type after a big saves year — and pay him 12 million per for 3 years?

        As for Haren, I’ve always liked him — but he’s having his worst year — in the NL, during the “year of the pitcher” — so maybe you’re overrating his current value. Giving up more hits than innings pitched (including a lot of HRs) doesn’t bode well for transitioning to the AL East — not to mention he’s a “west coast” guy. He might melt here in NY.

        • Pete

          Well, first, I’d argue that “Joba-Mania” itself had negative value to Joba and the Yankee organization, but that’s an argument for another day.

          Second, I didn’t say that he had or would have NO value in the bullpen. I said that it would be a waste to consign him to single-inning appearances, mostly in games the yanks would probably win anyway.

          As for replacing Mariano, that’s another issue, on par with “Joba-Mania”, that I fundamentally disagree with. You’re not going to replace Mariano, and if you attempt to, you’ll end up overpaying no matter what. That includes what you’d pay for a starter to replace Joba if Joba wound up stuck in the bullpen despite regaining his 2007-2008 form. Paying $15+ million for a starter if you have one of equal or similar quality making $3 million is HUGE. What’s more, even if Joba does return to that form, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll end up “replacing” Rivera. There is a limit to how much value a pitcher can provide in relief, and Rivera sits right around the top of that list every year. That value is not insubstantial at all, but since the inception of the one-inning-reliever, has anybody else sat at or near the top of that list every year?

          My suggestion is that when Rivera retires, we simply live with what we have (including SP prospects who aren’t quite good enough to by starters in NY), and sign reasonably priced, effective relievers, if there are any. I’m not of the mind that it is any harder to get outs in the late innings, but rather that relievers are typically worse at getting outs than starters are, making those outs seem harder to come by because they are recorded at a lower frequency. I am also not of the mind that runs given up in the late innings mean any more than runs given up in the early innings. The difference is in perception – losing a game in the 8th or 9th is more frustrating than losing it in the 1st. A loss is still a loss, though, regardless of how it comes about.

          • dave

            “sign reasonably priced, effective relievers, if there are any”

            Your last 4 words are key — there aren’t any. As a Yankee fan, you’ve seen the likes of Karsay, Farnsworth and Gordon. Every team in baseball looks for what you mention — but they can’t find it. Why would the D-Backs be interested in Joba as closer but not the team that has him setting up already? They don’t have a closer — and soon the Yankees won’t either.

            Regarding Joba-Mania, if it weren’t for some flies he might’ve played Rivera’s role in 1996. He was instantly dominant in the role that so many teams look to fill. Rivera was a starter in the minors — then a setup man to Wetteland — then Wetteland’s replacement. Using your logic the Yankees should’ve moved Rivera back into the rotation — or left him in the setup role — then signed “a reasonably priced, effective reliever, if there are any” — but there wasn’t — as usual. They could’ve met Wetteland’s demands, but they didn’t b/c they had a cost-effective replacement in-house. So, Rivera became our closer. Do you think Rivera’s role as setup man, then closer, negatively impacted his career?

            Regarding the idea of an “out is an out” — I agree and disagree. But the last outs are the most pressure packed. How many times did the Yankees win in those situations b/c the other side’s relievers choked trying to get those outs — like Trevor Hoffman? Kicking a field goal in the first quarter is not the same as kicking one with 3 seconds on the clock to decide the outcome of the game. Same act — different scenario — different intensity. Rivera spoiled us by not blinking in those situations.

            And I never meant that replacing Rivera suggested replicating Rivera. I just know that we’ll need a closer — when his knee or back goes before his cutter does. Everyone else seems to be whistling past the graveyard regarding the “sooner rather than later” need for a closer.

            • Pete

              I think it’s just a matter of priorities. Regardless of the bullpen situation, I think most people here (myself included) think that unless you’ve got like 6 HOF-caliber starters in their primes, quality starters>>>>>>>>>quality relievers.

              • dave

                I still think it’s up for debate in the modern game — especially when bullpens pitch 1/3 of the innings. If there was one thing that distinguished the winning Yankee teams of the late 90s, it was the bullpen. Nelson, Stanton, Mendoza, Rivera got outs in the 7-8-9 when the other side couldn’t. And so many of those tight playoff games are decided in those innings. CC might get you into the 8th — what about the other 4 games until his next turn?

                There’s a cry to get Haren here — and to give up a lot to do it. If pitching is the key anyway, why not offer Montero? A potentially big bat — but a bad catcher. Is Joba or the other prospect pitchers less valuable than a DH who doesn’t run out ground balls? And I think you would agree that it’s a hell of a lot easier to find/trade for/sign a big bat than a quality starter or reliever.

            • Ed

              As a Yankee fan, you’ve seen the likes of Karsay, Farnsworth and Gordon.

              Karsay wasn’t bad. He just ended up with chronic back issues. Gordon was very good other than his ALCS issues.

              He was instantly dominant in the role that so many teams look to fill. Rivera was a starter in the minors — then a setup man to Wetteland — then Wetteland’s replacement. Using your logic the Yankees should’ve moved Rivera back into the rotation — or left him in the setup role

              When Rivera was a prospect, he didn’t project to have that high a potential. He was a fastball/slider guy with a mediocre slider. He was moved to the pen because he just didn’t have what it took to be a quality MLB starter. He didn’t develop the cutter until he had been in the bullpen for a while. Totally different situation from Joba.

              Remember, Mo is the best reliever ever. Leave him out of the discussion when you value relievers, as you’re not going to see anyone like him again anytime soon. Your expectations are going to be totally out of line with reality if you use him as your comparison.

              • dave

                Like I said, replacing Rivera doesn’t suggest that I believe he’ll be replicated.

                And of course the Joba and Rivera stories aren’t identical. Rivera was called back up to help when Gene Michael heard that Mo’s velocity suddenly picked up a few mph in the minors. My point was that when he showed dominance in the setup role (a multi-inning role, too), they promoted him to closer rather to find a veteran off the shelf — or even to re-sign the closer that they had just won a World Series with.

                I’d agree with people here if I didn’t see what I saw when Joba came up. And if I didn’t see 97 mph on the gun like I have since he moved back to the pen. He was the most dominant setup man since Rivera set up for Wetteland. He was instantly a feared force in the league. I didn’t want them to start him. He had a history of “dead arm” shoulder problems in college which is why he originally fell in the draft order. I cringed when I saw him grab his shoulder during that one start. Now that his velocity is back, the next step is consistent mechanics. Then I think you’ll see the same guy that inspired Joba-mania. But I’d hate to see him do it as a closer for the D-backs when I think Haren can be had for less.

    • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

      It’s been said here many times before, but building a roster to have a “closer of the future” is far from a good idea.

      • dave

        It’s not about “building a roster” around the idea. It’s about acknowledging that Rivera won’t close until the end of time. You groom a replacement from your system — so you don’t have to spend big bucks on a free agent veteran. No different than developing Hughes as a starter so you don’t have to pay the next AJ Burnett or John Lackey that comes along. Again, most here think it can’t be Joba — but no one offers any other alternative to Rivera. Pretending that he’ll pitch forever isn’t the answer.

    • troy v.

      Noone can replace Rivera…but if push comes to shove…the yankees could get J.J.Puts or Raphael Soriano to replace Mo…they could sign one of them as a setup man in the off season and if Mo breaks down then one of those guys could fill in that role…

      • dave

        Basically you’re saying trade Joba — then go out and sign an older, more expensive Joba-type to do the same job.

  • Jeety

    I’m adverse to giving up Banuelos,

    Joba is fine, Nova, Z Mac,

    you can also include…

    Romine, Laird, Melky Mesa, Corban Joseph, JR Murphy, Noesi, Warren, Brackman

    I’d try not to include…

    Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Heathcott, Gary Sanchez

    • rbizzler

      I think that the org is too high on Romine to move him right now. Also, I think that Brack is much more valuable to the Yankees (b/c of the dollars and energy invested in him) than he would be to another team.

      Otherwise, I agree with your list(s).

    • BadaBling

      I agree with all except Romine. With the age of Posada and the uncertain status of Jesus’s sticking behind the dish. Romine is farther along than Sanchez and could be the catcher of the future. I agree with all the other prospects though. I’d love to see this deal get done!

    • mikebk

      yea dont see Romine being moved especially if Joba is already in the deal. Jesus D is too big a question mark and so far Romine as shown he is the best all-around catching prospect.

    • Pete

      As of right now, Romine >>>>>> Gary Sanchez. There is a very good chance that Romine becomes the Yankees every day catcher in the future. There isn’t yet all that great a chance that Sanchez ever plays a game for the yanks, let alone at catcher.

  • Johnny O

    We could be selling low on Joba right now, or we could be selling before his value goes lower. As a relief pitcher, I doubt his value goes up significantly. And clearly the Yanks won’t be starting him anytime soon. Either way, I’d give up Joba, Nova, and McAllister. Definitely no more, especially if we’re forced into taking Chris Snyder and the D-backs don’t throw in cash.

    No point in bidding against ourselves here. Unless I’ve missed the latest rumor, all the other teams going after him are in the NL, so it limits the downside of the Yanks not getting him.

    Cliff Lee is a beast, but is he worth ~$8M more than Haren? Ideally we could get both (greedy Yankee fan talking here), but part of me thinks the new semi-budget-conscious Yankees could be talking themselves into preferring Haren.

    • mikebk

      his value as a reliever only really goes back up significantly if he shows he can be a legit closer which would require a situation none of us want to see.

    • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

      Cliff Lee is a beast, but is he worth ~$8M more than Haren?

      To the Yankees he probably is, but not for most teams. The difference between a top 20 and top 5 pitcher in baseball generally isn’t $8 million, but for the Yankees I can see the increased value of Lee. He’s a sure thing, Haren is close but does have minor question marks. For a team whose only goal is to win titles, the $8 million is likely worth the upgrade.

  • http://www.lessthismorethat.com/author/ddarrell Jamal G.

    I said on Twitter before rumors of the names started leaking out that the best centerpiece I would be willing to offer is one of Joba Chamberlain and Austin Romine, and Manny Banuelos added to one of the former two. From there, Arizona could pick two of a group including Hector Noesi, Ivan Nova, David Phelps and Adam Warren.

    • mikebk

      that is a huge offer that Arizona would immediately have to jump on, imo.

    • http://www.lessthismorethat.com/author/ddarrell Jamal G.

      However, if Romine is the choice, then whoever the Yanks value the most out of those four secondary pieces gets eliminated and replaced with McAllister.

      • Pat D

        Trading Romine for Haren = not an option in my opinion.

        • Pete

          agreed. And certainly no Joba if Romine’s the deal, which I don’t think he will be. I think Romine is the Yanks third most untouchable prospect behind Hughes and Montero (I consider Hughes to be a prospect still, since he still has quite a bit of developing to do)

        • RL

          I’m with you. Would NOT give up Romine at this point.

    • pounder

      Don’t forget Le Bron!

  • Pat D

    So I’m perusing Olney’s blog this morning and he has 3 Yankee-related Haren links. One is by John Harper saying the yankees won’t rush into their pursuit of Haren. One is by Joel Sherman saying that an acquisition of Haren might complicate their pursuit of Lee. The last one is from Ken Davidoff saying that getting Haren would be a mistake. Frankly, that was the only one I wanted to select as I’m curious to hear why he thinks so. Oh, but that’s right. I can’t read that article because I don’t have a subscription to Newsday or Optimum Online.

    Can anyone read this: http://www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/ken-davidoff/davidoff-getting-haren-would-be-a-mistake-1.2137248

    • Craig

      Basically just says they should have enough to win this year…And this it would be bad payroll and roster managment in getting him

      • Pat D

        Hmm. Don’t think I agree with those thoughts, though without knowing exactly what they would trade, I’d reserve final judgment.

      • rbizzler

        I disagree with Davidson in regards to the roster management issues that this potential trade would create. If acquiring Haren allows them to keep Hughes under or around his innings limit, than I think that it is a shrewd move. Also, if they see Haren as a passable and cheaper alternative to Lee, they will have @ 20 million that was earmarked for Lee to spend on improving other areas of the roster.

  • Pat D

    Oh, also FWIW, I would opposed to trading Joba and Banuelos together for Haren, and I wouldn’t want to trade Banuelos at all, frankly.

    • Rob

      I agree. I don’t see why Joba plus Nova and McAllister isn’t enough. I think JMK has Little Manny in there to compensate for Snyder.

  • JoeC

    I’d offer something like Nova, Adams, Banuelos, Laird, for Haren and Synder (and their salaries). If it works great. If not, fine, go get a DH/RH OF

    • mikebk

      rather deal joba than manny.

      • Pat D

        I agree. I don’t want to trade Joba, but I’d rather him than Banuelos.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          That doesn’t make sense.

          Joba Chamberlain is a 24 year old kid with multiple plus pitches who has already shown considerable success in the big leagues. Manny Banuelos is a 20 year old kid in A ball.

          I love Manny as much as the next guy, but trading a Manny-centric package instead of a Joba-centric package should be everybody’s choice. We’d be lucky if Manny Banuelos ever even became as good as Joba Chamberlain is already, even with all of Joba’s warts. Manny’s ceiling is basically Joba’s floor.

          • Pat D

            I see what you’re saying. I could really go both ways. I guess I’m pretty bullish on Manny’s potential, and I’m just becoming more pessimistic about Joba putting together for a multitude of reasons.

            Like I said, I don’t want to trade Joba, but…I don’t know, this is really all speculation until something more definite arises, whenever that may be.

            • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

              I could really go both ways.


              • Pat D

                Is it really? Because I didn’t hear it.

          • Ghost of Scott Brosius

            Manny’s ceiling is an inconsistent middle reliever? Because that’s basically Joba’s floor-and where he is right now.

            • http://www.retire21.org Mike R.- Retire 21

              Where exactly did you get your “ceiling is an inconsistent middle reliever” assessment from? I have read several reports on him and have not read that once.

          • http://www.retire21.org Mike R.- Retire 21

            My perspective on the Joba vs Manny deals is that Joba’s value is exponentially greater than Manny’s right now. I think it is easier to replace the value Manny provides in the package than to replace Joba’s. While “I would rather trade Joba than Manny” is not the best way to put it, I am of the school of thought that I would rather Cash try to remove/replace Manny in the deal because replacing Joba would be too costly in terms of players and removing him isn’t realistic IMO. Hence in a way I would “rather keep Manny than Joba”.

  • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

    I’d struggle to include Banuelos, but push comes to shove I’d include him. Haren is not a rental and can help this team potentially in 3 postseasons. There have been a million Man-Ban’s that have never even sniffed AAA, nevermind made an impact in the majors. He’s a lottery ticket at this point and when you’re a title contending team and you can get 3 years of Dan Haren for a lottery ticket (+ the rest of the package of course) I think you have to go for it. That being said, I’m glad they haven’t made the trade yet including Man-Ban, but if they do it only July 31st I’d have no problem.

  • Couchy

    Joba, Nova, Z-Mac and wait… The 31st is still a long, long way away

  • pc

    get haren if at all possible, next years draft is very deep and the yanks need all the compensation picks they can get to take advantage of that deep player pool.

    • Pete

      …trying to figure out how acquiring Dan Haren would net the Yankees any picks in next year’s draft…they wouldn’t lose any because of him, but they wouldn’t gain any, either.

      • JMK

        I’m assuming he’s expecting they’d tell Javy he’d be a reliever, offer him arb., watch him decline it and net two picks.

        Possible, but too soon to say.

        • Pete

          Ah, gotcha. I was assuming we’d offer Javy arbitration no matter what, and that he’d likely decline it no matter what.

  • http://pda.88000.org/wallpapers/48/Pikachu_Dressed_as_Hitler.jpg Do Not Feed The Trolls!

    Anyone but Montero really.

  • Slu

    I would do Joba, Nova, Z-Mac, and Mannny for Haren, but I would not take Synder or Qualls back unless they included cash in the deal.

    I know this is unreasonable, but I have had enough of Joba. I cringe every time he enters a game. I know he is 24 and all that, but Joba’s ceiling is Haren, and how likely is he to get there? So might as well turn him into Haren now.

  • Tony

    I would miss Joba. I would stay put & go to war with what we have. Go for Lee next yr & re-sign Javy for less money. Lets also not discount that Joba may grow into the closers role & there is value in that.

  • A.D.

    Personally I’m not that big a fan of Haren and thus this deal, but if I were trying to get it done I’d take on full salary remaining of Snyder & Haren, and give up Joba, 2 other pitchers (Nova/Zmac/Pelps/Noesi/ManBan), then potentially another non Montero/Romine/Slade/Sanchez hitter so Cervelli/Adams/Laird, though I’d wait to the eleventh hour on this.

    Otherwise the D’Backs biggest issue is money, which is also the Yankees strength, therefore its in the Yanks interest to be offering to take on money to get the best terms of this deal.

    In terms of the players while Joba’s value is down as he’s struggles & nears arb if the Yankees are really only ever going to use him as a reliever then the value other teams put on him (expecting him to start) is actually greater than the Yanks will get from him.

    Figure the other pitchers are all somewhat interchangeable, and while I like ManBan I’m not so sure how good he’ll ever be, and if he’ll really ever be a top of the rotation guy.

  • http://no ted

    I know this is really only an ancillary concern, but getting a SP now allows the Yankees to keep the pick they would have to give up for a FA SP. (Mike Axisa says this might be a fantastic draft class.)

    • mikebk

      add that to javy’s picks if he keeps it up and we offer him arb. also rumors of trading for scott downs who also is A eligible right now, though relievers with A status seem to get hurt badly by it.

  • mikebk

    if we take qualls back who is only under contract for this year and we could dfa or non-tender (after the year) and it means it gets done for Joba, Z-Mac, Nova im all for it.

  • Poopy Pants

    Selling Joba when he’s at a low point IS selling low. If he wasn’t so low, the Yankees wouldn’t have to come up with as much to include in addition to Joba.
    If Joba = $5, Haren = $10, then you need to package $5 along with Joba (current situation)
    If Joba = $7, Haren = $10, then you need to package $3 along with Joba.

    Your paragraph below kind of contradicts your stated hypothesis and supports mine…
    “However, there is more to that. I saw a great comment yesterday, one that Moshe Mandel of TYU pointed out. steve (different one) notes that contrary to the belief of some, it’s not that one player holds up the deal, but rather, adding that one additional piece that tips the scales in the wrong direction. Maybe losing Joba isn’t a big deal. Maybe even adding the salary of Haren and giving up Nova is something they’d be willing to do. But an additional piece, an asset they clearly value, like Banuelos or Z-Mac is just too much for them. That asset would be there to offset some kind of other loss, and thus, would be too steep a price for what the team may consider just a luxury. At the same token, you can’t just offer up Nova, Z-Mac and Ramiro Pena and expect them to jump. That porridge is too cold.”

    Buying low on Haren is not equal to selling high on Joba.

    All that being said, I don’t give a shit what the Yankees do.

    • JMK

      Perhaps I didn’t state it correctly, but the essential point was that if the D-Backs view his value as high-point, even if his performance as of now is low, it’s still selling high based on the return. Really, it’s semantics when you flesh it out.

      Think about it this way: say Joba’s value were much higher. This would mean he’d likely be pitching in another role, one that’s probably much more valuable. At that point, his value is so high to the team, it probably wouldn’t be worth it to them to sell him off for a more expensive piece. If Joba’s a starter and throwing up good numbers, there’s no reason to trade him. Whereas, on the flip side, Joba pitching poorly and still possibly netting Haren (in addition to some other pieces) is probably the ceiling at which they’d get in return before he were too valuable to the Yankees.

      The paragraph you cited was more just a thought into the process of selling points, not necessarily solely about Joba’s value, but what the tipping point would be with other assets. I’m not going to get into some numeric assignment of value points. That will prove to be merely an exercise in arbitrary frustration.

      You’re looking at this in a vacuum. I don’t think we ultimately disagree, rather, I think you’re just looking at an ancillary point and extolling a different expectation of how the other pieces fit.

    • Pete

      If Joba = $5 and Haren = $10, you need to come up with $5
      If Joba = $5 and Haren = $15, you need to come up with $10
      If Joba = $7 and Haren = $10, you need to come up with $3
      If Joba = $7 and Haren = $15, you need to come up with $8

      So, you have the following possibilities:

      Buy low on Haren while selling high on Joba, requiring $3 extra
      Buy low on Haren while selling low on Joba, requiring $5 extra
      Buy high on Haren while selling high on Joba, requiring $8 extra
      Buy high on Haren while selling low on Joba, requiring $10 extra.

      Basically, we appear to be taking the 2nd best possible outcome. I think it’s worth noting, however, how unlikely the best outcome is of occurring; Dan Haren is an EXCELLENT pitcher whose value is extremely unlikely to be lower than it is right now in terms of prospects, AND his monetary value is well below his market value. Meanwhile, Joba is almost two full years removed from an injury from which he still appears to be recovering, or attempting to recover. His value could certainly go up (and his peripherals indicate that it should), but the lack of consistency with his stuff and his command two years away from injury is undoubtedly concerning. If Joba’s current value is $5, I’d say there’s about a 40% chance that it reaches $6, and a 20% chance that it reaches $7. Also worth noting is that by the time his value reaches those levels, his salary will also reach those levels, making him much less attractive to a team like AZ.

      I still have faith, personally, that it could wind up reaching $10+, but the chances of that happening are, even I can admit, in the 0-5% range.

      In other words, now is as good a time as you’re at all likely to get to make this deal.

      • JMK

        Pete is always better at explaining these things than I. Why the RABbi’s let me post as opposed to him is a mystery. So read this explanation, Poopy Pants, as opposed to mine. It’ll be more helpful.

        • Pete

          stop it JMK, you’re making me blush

  • Pete

    IMO, the package would have to be fronted by ONE of Joba/Banuelos, and followed by Nova and McAllister. If they require us to take on the full salaries of Chris Snyder and Dan Haren, then that’s the whole package. If they don’t demand that we take Snyder and are willing to pay some of Haren’s salary (unlikely), then throw in David Adams, Corban Joseph, Brandon Laird, Colin Curtis, or Eduardo Nunez.

    I would not include Montero, Romine, Heathcott, or Sanchez in ANY deal, unless it was one of the latter three for Haren, straight up.

    I would be willing to part with Brackman, Betances, or Ramirez in substitution for Joba/Banuelos, and possibly add Noesi to that package, but I think the point is moot – Brackman is too expensive and has a high risk factor, Betances has too high a risk factor, and Ramirez is too far away for AZ to want any of those guys to head a deal.

    I would not include Joba AND Banuelos under any circumstances (AZ throwing in Justin Upton notwithstanding).

    I think the Yankees are playing this right by waiting. They’ll survive without Haren, AZ won’t survive without parting with them, and will probably try to play teams against each other anyways. The Yankees will hear other teams’ offers, and if it is possible for them to beat those offers without overextending themselves, they will make the move.

    • JoeC

      What he said…

  • Larry

    If this happens, who moves up from AA to fill out the AAA roation?

    • Pete

      Good point. I’m sure this is a major concern of the front office right now ;)

    • jeremy

      maybe brackman and/or warren…? they havent been there long though

  • currambayankees

    I’d rather the Yankees keep Joba. Yeah, he hasn’t had a great year and he had a hard time last year with the screwing around the Yankees did with him as a starter but everyone seems to forget how well he performed in the post season. I keep Joba and say screw getting Haren. I do want to see the Yankees go hard after Lee this off season.

  • viridiana

    No more than Nova, Warren/Stoneburner plus perhaps Murphy/CoJo.

    I would take issue with the premise that Haren is a borderline ace. He’s given up alarming numbers of both hits and home runs this year. Twenty more hits than innings pitched. 23 bombs. I simply don’t believe that numbers like BABIP explain away these basic facts. Moreover, as others have observed, he’s posting a 4.6 ERA in a division known to favor pitchers. Now there’s talk– widely reported– that he may be hurt too.

    No way — repeat, no way — do I give up first class young pitching talent like Joba or Banuelos. Yanks have great depth in very good but non first-tier pitching talent in Warren, Stoneburner, Noesi, Phelps, Nova. I’d let Arizona dip into this pool.

    And again, I find it remarkable that so many people seem to want to dump Joba but have no clesr plan (other than removing Hughes from the rotation) for replacing him. As bad as Joba has been a times, he still gets thre job done roughly three in four appearances. That’s not what you ideally want. But it’s a lot better than the other options I hear.

    • Pete

      I agree with all of this, but I still think that you have to take your chances if the offer is Haren for Joba, Nova, and McAllister.

    • http://riveraveblues.com Rich

      Excellent points. Haren’s stats are average at best this year. I wouldn’t give AZ any of our top prospects for him plushis rather large salary. Just wait for Lee.

  • jeremy

    i dont understand why the yanks aren’t talking about getting adam laroach in this deal to be the DH. obviously he’s not the greatest hitter out there but wouldn’t a platoon with thames and laroach at DH be solid? if the deal was haren, snyder, and laroach i think the deal might be like this:

    (maybe cervelli?)

    this would be the most i’d give up. definately not giving up jesus, romine, heathcott, man-ban, gary sanchez, betances or even brackman.

  • http://kierstenschmidt.com Kiersten

    Joba, Nova/ZMac/Banuelos, and two lesser (position player) prospects.

    Giving up four pitchers, three of whom are some of our top pitching prospects, is too much.

    Not wanting to give up Joba for Haren is stupid. The Yankees clearly view Joba as a reliever and as we all know, mid-rotation to ace pitching >>>>>>>> reliever not named Mariano Rivera. Even if Joba were to become a starter again, it’s not likely he’d be better than Haren.

    • Tom Zig

      I just don’t want to give up Banuelos. If the trade was for the right piece/player I’ll understand giving up Joba. This counts as one of those situations.

  • Mike

    The Yankees should trade Zach McAllster, Ivan Nova, Jose Ramiez, and Mark Melancon for Haren and Qualls and Yankees pay both contracts{Qualls is a FA this offseason}. I think the Yankees will get Lee because they tired to trade for him already and the Red Sox will have money,plus I think Pettitte will want to end on a good note like Mussina did.

    • http://www.retire21.org Mike R.- Retire 21

      That sounds like a click on the other end of the line.

  • MattG

    No way on Banuelos. Pound salt.

    Joba, Nova, ZMac, and pick from Phelps, Sanchez, Adams or Nunez.

    And I want Qualls. Contract expires this year, and his 8.49 ERA (!) is nothing more than a by product of a ludicrous .452 BABIP and 51.9% strand rate–he’s got a 3.86 xFIP, and he would effectively replace Joba for the remainder of this season.

    I don’t want Snyder. I appreciate the idea, but the Yankees can find a much better option for $6.5m. In fact, Cervelli already is a much better option. If I take Snyder, I take ZMac or Nova out of the deal.

  • rab is loco esse

    No way no how is man ban in trade. Understand this by giving up joba your giving up the equivalent of a top prospect. Than add in two back end starters in nova and zmac. Deal. Take it or leave it. Where eating Harens salary. Every other team wants diamondbacks to pick up part of salary. So why do we eat entire salary plus give up joba and our top pitching prospect. Economically that makes no sense. Haren is the real deal but noone else is giving up that much. Why should we. Because where the NY Yankees we should get robbed.

  • Poopy Pants

    It should/could be an exciting week.

  • Andrew Brotherton

    Joba/Nova/ZMac/Phelps for Haren+Snyder plus assuming all the money left on both contracts. Final Offer

    • MattG

      rethink Snyder brother. Lets go into ’11 with the plan to have Montero and Posada catch 81 time apiece, and be happy if Cervelli starts < 40. That 6.5 million bucks can be put to use elsewhere.

  • rab is loco esse

    Think about it before you post absurd blogs. Win now with eye on future and never be taken advantage of. Cliff Lee will be there next yr. Slow down and let the Cash do the thinking. No way would he include all that talent and eat the entire salary rab. Be responsible with your blogging posts please.

    • Pasqua

      Won’t anyone think of the children?!

    • Pete

      seriously? “all that talent”? you’re not referring to Ivan Nova and Zach McAllister, are you? As for Joba or ManBan, do you really think that either of those guys is less talented than Dan Haren? Or even that the difference in talent is less than Ivan Nova + Zach McAllister? And that’s just talking about talent in a vacuum. The amount of talent that Nova and McAllister have is worth almost nothing to the Yankees. They already have Sergio Mitre, Dustin Mosely, Chad Gaudin, Hector Noesi, etc. I, for one, don’t see Nova or McAllister providing much more value than those guys already do(n’t). They’re throw-ins for the yankees.

  • Pasqua

    If the DBacks main concern is shedding cumbersome contracts, shouldn’t the Haren price tag drop if the Yanks agree to take on Snyder? I wonder if Cash is currently balking at taking back Snyder (or somebody like Qualls) but would “reluctantly” agree to it late in the game in an effort to avoid losing one of the prospects mentioned in the article.

    Nice write-up, by the way.

  • Reggie C.

    GREAT post JMK. My own stance on acquiring Haren matches your resolve.

    The D’Backs want a couple lottery tickets and that’s totally understandable. I too would part with Joba and one of Man-Ban / Betances / Brackman. If the reports of Man-Ban’s increased velocity are real and arent a mirage ala Jeremy Bleich of a season ago, then the D’Backs are going to be rather insistent.

    • Pete

      I simply don’t see Brackman being any part of this package – he’s expensive and risky. There’s really no point in the D-Backs trading Haren for him.

      • Reggie C.

        Yeah. I agree. I dont think Brackman and his contract elevators will attract much interest from the D’Backs. He’s still a couple years away too. I just threw his name in to cement the point that the three guys all have real ML potential, but neither one is a Hughes-level or heck, until a couple years ago, a Joba-level prospect.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        There’s not many teams who could possibly pay Brackman’s salary and wait patiently for his ship to come in. We might be the only one. Brackman’s value to us is higher than it would be to anyone else.

    • Reggie C.

      I’ll add this thing on Snyder.

      THe D’Backs are being a bit lazy in not pursuing a separate trading of Snyder. If the D’Backs are adamant not to pay a dime of Snyder’s 2011 money, then simply find a team in need of offense (the Mets, Dodgers), but accept the fact that the return will be a couple of B/C level prospects.

  • Nikhil R.

    Joba, Nova, Z-Mac, and any position prospect not named Montero/Romine/Heathcott/G.Sanchez. I still (kinda) believe in Joba but like 1756 other people have said, if the Yankees are going to keep him as a RP, Haren’s value to the team >>>>>>>>> Joba’s value to the team. And I honestly don’t know how anyone could consider Nova a “highly regarded prospect”. He’s not more than a 4 and the Yankees should have no problems parting with him. Also, if the D-backs ask the Yankees to take on Snyder AND pay all of Haren’s salary, so be it. JMK brought up good points of how Snyder will help the catcher situation not only this year by splitting time with Posada but also help break in Montero next year. He’s expensive but he’s going to be catching a chunk of both the rest of 2010 and all of 2011 so it’s worth it.

    • Reggie C.

      Perhaps Nova’s viewed by Az mgmt and scouts as having a potentially higher ML ceiling than IPK. We dont know. Nova’s k/9 has had a noticeable bump up from last season, so he’s improved. I think Az doesnt have many internal options as good as Nova to grab a rotation spot next season, so Nova definitely has value to teams in Az’s predicament.

  • RAB is loco ese

    One last note on this JMK blog posting.

    Not only is JMK (I assume the new Yankee GM) willing to give up Joba (equivalent of top prospect based on age, + he is a major leaguer), Manny Banuelos (top Yankee pitching prospect and he is a LEFTY to boot) and Nova and ZMac (equivalent of two back end starters) plus eat all of Haren’s money left on contract.

    He than adds in this great tidbit. “while where at it we can do a swap of Snyder for blue eyed Cervelli. Snyder is owed 6.6 mill through 2011”.

    Why not just keep going, whose to stop this mad man named JMK?

    Are you effffing kidding me RAB?

    We are the Yankees! Why are we giving up all that talent plus eating all that money when NOT ONE OTHER TEAM IN MAJORS WOULD COME CLOSE TO MATCHING THAT OFFER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      If you have an actual point to make, how about making it instead of resorting to ridiculously over the top theatrics?

      People might take you seriously. Try it, you might like it.

    • http://www.retire21.org Mike R.- Retire 21

      Am I the only one who envisioned flashing lights and a thunder sound effect at the end of that comment?

    • JMK

      I fully understand that some of my proposals may be unpopular. I certainly understand the hesitance of some to want to include Manny Banuelos and take on salary. That’s a legitimate cricism, one I (think) I’ve addressed, as have others in the comments.

      Again, if you read semi-carefully, I said that there’s no reason to bid against oneself, but if it’s the last second of the deadline, I (not you, not some others, maybe no Cashman — I didn’t explore the law of probability regarding individuals I have no control over, nor any privy to their thoughts or processes) would probably do it. No need for your smug hysteria. I never made any such claim to having any decision-making power, much less being a GM. These are just ideas I’d had. You’re encouraged to express your own, which you appear bold enough to do.

      Z-Mac and Nova, while retaining some value to the Yankees, are far more valuable to other teams given the roster construction and a whole host of other reasons. Those, as other have said, are mere throwaways.

      Joba, while also having some value, would likely have surplus value to other clubs. Given how the Yankees seem to view Joba and the uncertainty of his role, if he’s the centerpiece of a deal that can net you a top 20 pitcher for under market value, I would do it. There are of course mitigating factors, but in short summation, regardless of whether you call it “selling low” or “selling high”, Joba, as the main chip, getting a pitcher of that caliber, is excellent value. Comma.

      ManBan, while an excellent prospect, is 19-years-old and still in A-ball. I think we tend to overrate the probability that our prospects have in making a notable impact on the big club. And please, consider that I say that as an ardent lover of prospects. But let’s be measured. You need to give up value to receive value. Maybe you think it’s too much, that’s fair. But no need to resort to completely hysteria and hyperbole. What I said is a reasonable proposal, maybe too much for some, maybe just right for others. I didn’t say I’d offer Hughes, Montero, ManBan, Joba and Gardner for Haren. Be reasonable, dude. THE SKY IS NOT FALLING BECAUSE A BLOGGER SUGGESTED WE PART WITH VALUE TO RECEIVE VALUE!!!

      Now, regarding Snyder: sure, he’s a bit expensive and I imagine most would like to steer clear, but he’s a very good player that could really help patch a big hole for this year and next year as well. I understand the hesitation to bring in another salary, but there are many factors to this. Heck, he has value on the market now. The Yankees could probably even trade him again for something.

      Also, FYI: I’m a weekend writer here. I receive no compensation from this, spare good, interesting baseball conversation from a community of largely well-informed fans. I welcome criticism and understand that when I post at a large, highly-trafficked community, I must take it in stride. And I have.

      But really, you come off sounding like an ass. I’m appreciative Ben, Mike and Joe give me the opportunity to write about something I’m passionate about. If you have an issue, bring it up with them. They’ll be happy to hear your gripes. But for now, until something changes, let’s have a semi-cordial discussion, not a childish tiff.

  • RAB is loco ese

    Your loyal RAB viewers deserve an answer and if not, a press release announcing the RESIGNATION of the man known as JMK!

    • Pete

      JMK is not a RABbi he does weekend posts for free. Cut him some fucking slack. If you don’t like it, don’t read it. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this post.

    • http://twitter.com/simmonsclass Sam
      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder


  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    The number of people in this thread who are more interested in trading Joba Chamberlain than Manny Banuelos is saddening.

    I like both of them; I’m both a big Joba fan and a big Manny fan. But Joba’s simply a much, much, much better player and prospect than Manny Banuelos is. And he always has been, at every level.

    If the Diamondbacks came to us and said “We’ll to the deal for Nova, ZMac, and one of Joba or Banuelos, your choice”, our choice should be Banuelos every single day of the week and twice on doubleheaders.

    Joba is a talented but flawed big league pitcher who has things he needs to work on to recapture his potential. Manny Banuelos is talented, but he’s just a 20 year old smallish lottery ticket.

    Joba >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ManBan

    • http://www.retire21.org Mike R.- Retire 21
    • Not Tank the Frank

      Totally agree. And it’s this exact point that makes me want to exclude ManBan from the deal entirely. I’m thinking that AZ is publicly thinking of Joba as a closer simply to drive his value down. I would think ANY team that were to receive Joba in a trade would view him and try him as a starter first. Because of his faulty numbers this season and during his adventures back and forth to the bullpen, people are forgetting just how talented Joba is.

      Joba has much more value to the DBacks than he does to the Yankees at this moment (when you look at the construct of the two teams, divisions etc). The DBacks have said they want pitching, pitching, pitching, and major league ready pitching. Joba, Nova, and Z-Mac should get it done. Nova is major league ready IMO…but again, just not for the Yankees.

    • Gonzo

      I think if Joba wasn’t entering his expensive years, people would totally agree with you. However, for every arb $ raise Joba gets, that equals 1.4 $’s for the Yanks. Paying that much for high WHIP reliever might be much.

      Bash me for mentioning the Yanks have a budget, but at some point it’s “real” money to the Yanks. Especially if you think Joba can never start for the Yanks. Bash me on that too if you want. However, if you think ManBan has a 20% chance of being a Yankee SP, and Joba has a 15% chance of being a Yankee SP, that coupled with Joba’s arb years coming up makes some sense.

      I am not saying you are wrong, just trying to shed some light on the logic.

    • Brien Jackson

      I don’t disagree with any of this, but on the other hand I keep going back to the “unknowable:” if the team sees Joba as nothing more than a reliever at this point, there’s just no reason not to deal him for a very good starter. Not that that makes Man-Ban more valuable, of course, but I think you know what I mean.

      • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

        I think ManBan is more valuable to the Yankees if they only view Joba as a reliever.

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      ManBan is 19.


  • RAB is loco ese

    Joba, Z-Mac, Nova, and another c level prospect plus take on Haren’s contract. That is fair.

    If Snyder must be included fine, but that is as far as we give up and take on financially. Don’t underestimate the Yankees having a cap regardless of what the moronic writers such as Mike Lupica state. If you want Lee next year and resigning Jeter and MO and Arod’s contract hitting peak value and possibly resigning Petite and perhaps bringing in another outfielder you have to be fiscally responsible at some point and that means holding on to your number one LEFTY pitching prospect. Ask Chad Jennings what he thinks about trading MAN BAn and Joba plus two other prospects and on top of that eating HAren’s entire contract and on top pf that for shits and giggles swapping Cervelli with Snyder who sucks plus he’s owed 6.6 mill. Overpaid back up catcher. Cervelli was loved a month ago now lets trade him too.

  • viridiana

    “They already have Sergio Mitre, Dustin Mosely….”

    And I already have heartburn and diarrhea…..

  • Pete

    Something else to consider:

    There’s a very real chance that the Yankees make a trade for Dan Haren AND sign Cliff Lee this offseason. That means that Dan Haren would be next year’s #3 starter, and whoever is BETTER of Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett would be the #4. When people say that Nova’s and McAllister’s ceilings are of #3/#4/#5 starters, THAT is not what they are referring to. They’re referring to your average team’s #3/#4/#5 starters. Teams for which Dan Haren would be a #1. The only space the Yankees have for players like that is in the bullpen (as long men, mop-up men, and if we get REALLY lucky, Alfredo Aceves men), and at AAA, waiting for a callup.

    To the Yankees, quibbling over prospects like them is pure posturing. There is no reason for them to accept a price higher than the lowest they can get, so they are trying to lower that price. But the team has almost nothing to lose (other than fairly replaceable trade bait for other trades, which may or may not be out there, and would, in the wake of this trade, probably be wildly unnecessary) by trading away Nova or McAllister. Not trying to be a downer or anything, but be realistic.

    The yankees almost certainly want to make this deal. They are just trying to make sure they only make it at the best possible price because A) it’s not completely neceessary, B) they’ve got to figure out how it would affect next year’s budget and Cliff Lee, and C) it’s just good business. But by no means whatsoever is it unreasonable for AZ to ask the Yankees to include Nova and McAllister on top of a headliner like Joba or ManBan, each of whom would be VERY lucky to amount to the pitcher Dan Haren is.

    • Not Tank the Frank

      “They are just trying to make sure they only make it at the best possible price because A) it’s not completely neceessary, B) they’ve got to figure out how it would affect next year’s budget and Cliff Lee, and C) it’s just good business.”

      Agreed. I want this deal to go down and I’m sure the Yankees do to. But it’s Cash’s job to try and give up as little as possible and do what’s best for the team. So far he’s been pretty damn good at it.

  • RAB is loco ese

    Pete go cry some where else and let JMK defend himself. I agree with TommyCarlos by way whole heartedly.

    • Pete

      I agree with TSJC, too. I think Joba is a better prospect than ManBan. I just think that Dan Haren is better than either of them, and I’m sure TSJC would agree.

      Also: use the reply button. Really easy.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder


  • Not Tank the Frank

    “steve (different one) notes that contrary to the belief of some, it’s not that one player holds up the deal, but rather, adding that one additional piece that tips the scales in the wrong direction. Maybe losing Joba isn’t a big deal. Maybe even adding the salary of Haren and giving up Nova is something they’d be willing to do. But an additional piece, an asset they clearly value, like Banuelos or Z-Mac is just too much for them.”

    This is also the main problem I have…but with an addition. Trades have depleted the Yankees farm system of late. Players such as Z-Mac, Nova and even Pena (sort of) provide value to this team. The “true” prospects and trade pieces we’ve lost recently don’t sting as much in a case-by-case basis. But if you assume this trade goes down with the players mentioned, that makes three pretty substantial trades in what amounts to about one season’s worth of time.

    My addition is this: I would do this trade as mentioned in a heartbeat were it not for the previous trade of Javy Vazquez for what basically amounts to Vizcaino. The Yankees already gave up one of their high ceiling arms for what looks like will be only one season of Javy Vazquez. Now, Vazquez has more or less given us what we thought he would. But to give up that kind of arm for Vazquez to fill a rotation spot, only to turn around and give up another high ceiling arm for Haren after half a season makes this deal less attractive to me. I realize the Yankees still have the Brackmonster and Betances in their system, but with their injury history, they are less likely to net much value in a trade (as of right now) and it would be tough to lean on them as the bulk of their high ceiling pitching prospects in the system. These guys are do or die…very risky prospects.

    If I’m the Yankees, I think you have to stick to your guns. You decided to go with Vazquez to fill a need. And now because of Vazquez that is no longer a “need.” I would personally like to see the Yankees continue with their (perceived) plan to pursue Lee in free agency. Keep the prospects as a bonus. It’s a win win. If the Yankees want Lee…they’ll get him.

  • http://twitter.com/j_yankees2213 j_Yankees

    i’ve said it in almost every Haren post.

    If the yankees don’t look at joba chamberlain as a starter anymore…then there is not reason NOT to make this deal.

    • http://twitter.com/j_yankees2213 j_Yankees

      double negatives FTW.

  • YankeeFan

    Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Matt Cain, Jered Weaver, Shaun Marcum, John Danks, Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buerhle, John Lackey, Matt Garza, AJ Burnett, Jake Peavy, James Shields

    Would you consider most of these guys aces? two’s? three’s? This is not just based on this season but as their careers as a whole as well.

    • YankeeFan

      My point being is many of these guys have the same, if not better numbers than Haren. Some may be a slight under but I took in account the division they play in as well previous and present.

      And most of these guys seem more like #2’s and #3’s than this ‘ace’ ‘#1.5’ that people are trying to put on Haren. On a championship team (and the Yankees are a champinship team) he is more a #3, on good days a #2. People thinking otherwise, please explain his whole ‘ace’ point of view?

      Make some other team overpay in terms of prospects for him. He’s not worth a Joba/Nova + 2 prospects + entire contract package and he’s certainly not worth a package that centers around Joba/ManBan that is pure asinine!

      Arodys was traded because Yankees needed a pitcher and they believe the best pitcher was available was Vazquez. The Yankees also saw Jose Ramirez as the pitcher to fill Arodys’ void and he has. The trade continues to look better and better each passing week as Ramirez pitches well, Arodys continues to be out with elbow issues, and Vazquez putting up great numbers since mid-May.

      Who’s filling ManBan’s void? He’s the best lefty by a landslide in the org. and he’s AA bound next season at the age of 20.

      • YankeeFan

        And when I say ‘better numbers’ I mean in career in terms of WHIP, ERA, BAA mainly.

    • Pete

      I would say most of those guys are #2s on solid teams or #3s on excellent teams (though I don’t think John Lackey belongs in that discussion), with the exception of Gallardo, who is a borderline ace, IMO.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      There’s a lot of levels of pitching there. Especially with guys like Garza, Shields, Burnett, Lackey, etc., whose performances haven’t been consistent.

      • Not Tank the Frank

        In addition to consistency, he also doesn’t take into account age or injury history, or contract. I personally would put Haren ahead of:

        Burnett, Garza, Shields, Pettitte (sorry Bexy but you know it’s true), Marcum, Peavy, Buehrle and Floyd. So….that’s pretty much everyone on that list.

        Yeah, Dan Haren is a good pitcher.

        • YankeeFan

          Lackey has had far more experienced than Haren, no? A handful if not half of those guys are younger than Haren. As I said, in their career numbers thus far. Some, their careers are on the back-end, some in their prime, and some still in their pre-prime years. But is Haren comparable? Yes.

          Haren is a good pitcher, all of those guys are, that’s not the point.

          Is he a great pitcher? No.

          • Not Tank the Frank

            I’m not someone who buys the “Lacky is a gamer/bulldog” stuff. I would put him on par with Haren but again I wouldn’t say he is better than Haren when you consider his injury history and (now) his contract.

            I get your point. I don’t think Haren is a great pitcher…but again I would personally rank him above those pitchers I mentioned from your list. Just my two cents.

            • YankeeFan

              And I agree with your last phrase. Yes he is above some of those pitchers mentioned but also is below some. Good, not great.

              Just my point in asking the writer of the article if he can explain what this whole ‘ace’ ‘1.5-type’ pitcher that Haren is. Perception is sometimes not reality.

              • JMK

                Many, many teams in the league would have Haren as their ace. My personal view is he’s more of a #2 starter in the AL East, but he could step up and best other teams’ #1’s quite often. Sorry that wasn’t clear.

                • YankeeFan

                  On maybe many bad teams he would be an ace. If you go through each team, which team would slot him as their ace? I went through and obviously this is just my opinion maybe you have differing views on guys like Verlander, Oswalt, Hudson etc. but I found only these teams that would put him as their ace.

                  Toronto .505 (49-48)(and that’s even close as Marcum, when healthy, has proven to be the guy for Toronto)
                  Baltimore .320 (31-66)
                  Cleveland .423 (41-56)
                  Oakland .505 (49-48)
                  Cincinnati .556 (55-44)
                  Cubs .459 (45-53)
                  Pittsburgh .351 (34-63)

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          Ohhhh, I wasn’t quite sure what you were trying to say there. Agreed, Dan Haren is a damn fine pitcher, and don’t worry, I have no qualms saying he’s better than Pettitte at this point in their respective careers. ;)

          (Sorry for the super delayed response. I’ve been out.)

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      If you don’t think Wainwright and Gallardo are aces, I don’t know what to tell you. They’re both absolute front of the rotation starters right now.

      • YankeeFan

        You missed the point. I asked which ones do you think are aces, two’s, three’s, etc. I you picked just those two as aces then the others are 2’s and 3’s which is exactly what Haren is, a middle between a 2/3 and moreso a #3 on a championship-inspired team.

        • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

          I’d say Haren is a #2 starer. Definitely not a #3.

  • Jonathan

    I think that it is reasonable for them to accept Joba, Nova, Zmac, and Melancon for Haren and Qualls. Though many people have said that Melancon has regressed, I think that on stuff alone, the Dbacks would be interested and slot him right into the bullpen for the rest of the season. Adding joba and melancon to the pen and Nova to rotation with Zmac going to the minors seems like a good trade off.

  • RAB is loco ese

    Yankee fan is so dead on it’s not funny. Yankee fam and Tommy Carlos should have posted this blog instead of the RABbi named JMK. Sorry JMK but as the voice of the whitesox say’s, “your gone”.

    By the way I’m sure this has been your only bad article and I am looking forward to future articles.

    • Not Tank the Frank

      Dude…not for nothing but you’ve got to try that REPLY button on the right side of the post.

      • RAB is loco ese

        How’s that Dudette?

        John Harper of the New York Daily News writes that the Yankees are under no pressure to trade for Haren and that any deal they make will be on their own terms. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider required) agrees with Harper’s assessment, noting that the Yanks would take on Haren’s salary and give up “B-plus prospects” in a trade, but that they won’t move their best prospects.
        The Yankees would compromise their chances of signing Cliff Lee this winter if they acquire Haren, says Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman also hears that the D’Backs would like to get their payroll down to about $60MM for 2011, further motivating them to move Haren now.

        Maybe this will help clarify things.

        • Not Tank the Frank

          Excellent work! There’s hope for you.

        • Pete

          It doesn’t help clarify anything we don’t already know. If you still consider Joba to be a prospect, here’s how the yanks system looks (roughly):

          1. Hughes
          2. Montero
          3. Romine
          4. Joba
          5. Brackman
          6. Heathcott
          7. Sanchez
          8. Betances
          9. Banuelos
          10. Noesi
          11. Nova
          12. Murphy
          13. Melancon
          14. McAllister

          You can argue about the order, but in essence, you’re talking about trading away, at most, your ~4th, ~9th, ~13th, and ~14th best prospects (in a middle-of-the-pack-at-best-system) for a guy who would immediately become your 2nd best pitcher (arguably 3rd best when Pettitte comes back, but that argument would be based entirely on 2010, completely irrespective of both their careers and their ages). Ideally, the yankees wouldn’t take his whole salary, but even if they did, it’s about $8 million less than what a pitcher of his age and caliber would make on the open market. Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

          • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

            I wouldn’t consider Hughes or Joba prospects anymore. And the list probably looks a bit more like this:

            Banuelos (you underrated him quite a bit)
            etc..It becomes a little more interchangeable further down the list.

            Banuelos is probably the Yankees best pitching prospect. There aren’t many lefty pitching 19 year olds dominating High-A ball. Heck, if he didn’t have that apendectomy this season, he would probably be in Double-A this season as a 19 year old. And he can still reach that if he continues to have so much success.

        • Gonzo

          I don’t want to repost, so take a look at my post above. http://riveraveblues.com/2010/07/dan-haren-and-the-three-bears-32563/#comment-988290

          I am not saying what is best, but there is a logic to trading Joba over ManBan. Even if ManBan becomes a LOOGY, that’s pretty good value in his pre-arb years Joba’s value is dwindling because he is headed to his arb years. Look at Melky, there was value in his pre-arb years. It didn’t make sense for the Yanks to value his production throughout his arb years.

    • http://www.mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

      So you want him to resign and are saying “your gone”, but you look forward to his future articles?

      Who’s the crazy one?

    • Pete

      a) it’d be says, not say’s.
      b). he says “he gone”, not “your gone”.
      c). it’d be “you’re gone”, not “your gone”.

      Normally I don’t nitpick stuff like that, but you’ve been harping on a freely-written, well-thought-out, thorough article throughout this thread without providing any insight (or anything of value whatsoever) of your own, so I feel like the least you could do is communicate properly.

    • Carlosologist

      Dear God you must enjoy theater.

    • JMK

      I would love if TSJC wrote for this blog. I’ll tell you myself I think he’d make a better blogger. As it stands, he has neither the team nor the inclination (from my understanding, at least) to write on RAB. Which is a damn shame; he’d be great.

      As I said earlier, you’re welcome to judge the quality of my articles if you like. Take a little time and look through them if you wish. No one is hiding. http://riveraveblues.com/author/jmk/

      • JMK


      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Thanks for the compliment, man.

        I’m going to launch my blog eventually. Hopefully soon.

        • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

          I’m sure a lot of people would go to that blog. RAB would raid it.

  • KDB

    My top offer for Haren? It would be Joba (get value now), Z-Mac, Phelps, Romine? A position player at any rate. what do they need? Don’t give up Joba and Nova, Nova takes his place in the bullpen, and
    maybe has a chance as a 5 next year.

    • Pete

      “maybe has a chance as a 5 next year”

      not on the Yankees he doesn’t. I agree that he could be a serviceable #5 starter. But the yankees have no need for such pitchers right now. They have the lesser of AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes to fill that role.

    • Doug

      wouldn’t deal romine. as the yankees apparent catcher of the future, he’s almost as untouchable as montero at this point.

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      Romine has a lot of value to the Yankees. I would part with a lot of players before him. He’s the second best prospect the Yankees have.

      Joba, Nova (he’s not as great as you think),Z-Mac, and a lesser prospect Corban Joseph/Noesi, someone of that sort. That trade would hurt a bit, but the Yankees would retain their top 5 prospects (Heathcott, Banuelos, Montero, Romine, Sanchez/Brackman.)

  • JLew

    Nova/Z-Mac/Phelps/Nunez/Melancon/Cervelli for Haren, Qualls, Snyder. Yanks eat salary.
    D-Backs get 6 intriguing players (throw in Venditte if they want), plus get out from big salaries, get 3 starters, a reliever, a grinder, and a SS if they want to trade Drew. Haren becomes 3rd starter, Hughes to pen after Andy comes back. Qualls>Chad Ho Moseley and is only signed for this year. Snyder has power and can allow Jorge to DH and is a better bat than Cervelli. He can catch until Posada leaves and Montero/Romine are up.

  • Gonzo

    You want to know what I think is the biggest wildcard in trading for Haren? You guys can bash the heck out of me all you want, but I think Scott Downs is the biggest impediment to getting Haren right now (not a few days ago though when the iron was hot).

    It’s possible that Scott Downs makes Joba more expendable, but you may need some of the parts to trade for Downs. If not, weakening the farm for both Downs and Haren might be a little too much for the FO’s liking.

    Think about this guys. What would you trade for one of the best relievers on the market? Who is a free agent after the year? Who figures to be a type A? In one of the best draft classes in recent memory? And he’s a lefty (bye, bye Boone Logan)?

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      I wonder if any team would sign Downs after the season. Relief Type-A pitchers have had trouble getting contracts in the past. The Yankees might have to do a sign and trade with Downs. It’s happened before, so you have to consider that.

      I think Downs would be a very good piece, but it depends on what the Yankees have to give up in a trade. It shouldn’t be too much I’d imagine, but I don’t know.

      I don’t know if the two trades are related (Downs and Haren) because of the other (unproven) options in Triple-A, and the Yankees will probably through Hughes in the bullpen in a month or so. When you consider that, the bullpen would probably become stronger regardless.

      I don’t think anything you said was “bash” worthy.

      • Gonzo

        The Red Sox are hot on his trail. There is no way Theo is on his trail if they didn’t think he was going to turn down arb. He has been a very consistent lefty reliever. There will be a market for him. He is only making $4mm this year too. If he accepts (which I totally doubt), you have a very good LHP in your bullpen for one year.

    • Doug

      scott downs may be one of those guys who, b/c he’s a type a, goes unsigned for a long, long time. little risky offering him arbitration unless you’re okay with him accepting.

      • Gonzo

        The value of his Type A is being considered into a trade for him. He’s going to turn down arb. In the odd chance that he doesn’t, you have a very consistent good LHP in the ‘pen on a one year deal.

        • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

          I don’t think it’s guaranteed that he turns down arbitration. Soriano didn’t have a market last year because he was a type-A reliever. I believe he was re-signed by the Braves and traded because of this. Soriano is no pushover reliever either.

          • Gonzo

            Soriano is a righty and was making $6.1mm in his exit year. Downs is a lefty and making $4mm in his exit year. I think they are totally different animals. Soriano is a $7.5mmm righty in the bullpen this year. I doubt Downs could sniff that in arb.

            Downs has been the more consitent reliever recently also.

            • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

              I wouldn’t say totally different animals, and although I agree that Downs is a very good reliever, I wouldn’t be surprised if teams shy away from him because he’s a Type-A free agent.

              I think it’s reasonable to believe that whatever team has him at the end of the year, will either offer him arbitration or re-sign him and trade him. Teams have been reluctant to give contracts to Type-A reliever, especially when that reliever isn’t a closer.

              And with the deep draft class, teams will be even less reluctant to sign him if he’s offered arbitration.

              • Gonzo

                We agree to disagree. I don’t think Soriano is a deserving comp for Downs for the reasons I stated. If you are talking about Juan Cruz, he was still able to sign a 2 year deal for $5.5mm from an exit year salary of $1,937,500. Did it work out for him? Hells to the yeah. I bet he’d turn down arb again in a cocaine heartbeat. He just got cut and is going to make over $3mm for lounging? If he accepted arb and sucked last year (like he did), he’d have been screwed!!!

                • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

                  Haha, yeah. I don’t think they are the same animal, but I definitely wouldn’t say they’re “totally different” is all.

                  We shall see what happens. I should save this link and use it against you if I’m correct at the end of the year, haha. :)

                  • Gonzo

                    Yeah man, I am looking forward to it! My thinking goes, if a righty reliever sucks, you are crap out of luck. If a lefty reliever sucks, he becomes a LOOGY. He still has some salvagable value.

                    Everyone should pray for left-handed kids that can hit 90 mph on the gun.

                    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

                      Yeah, agreed.

  • http://www.businessinsider.com/sai NC Saint

    If this trade is really on the table, and we’re really considering turning it down, that’s one more reason to thank Mo the Cliff Lee trade fell through.

    If the rest of the year, plus 2-3 more years of Haren at a very reasonable salary isn’t very obviously worth our very promising second-best reliever and some top prospects, then the rest of the year plus absolutely nothing of Cliff Lee sure isn’t worth our #1 prospect plus some other top prospects.

  • http://uclabruins.playitusa.com/ Luca10


    Joba the reliever holds below average to little value for the Yanks, as he’s arb eligible next year. Nova and ZMac could be useful pieces, but they’reare absolutely expandable for the Yankees ’cause they are back-end starter at best. ManBan….oh, if he’s the deal breaker I’m not holding my breath on ManBan for a pitcher like Haren, signed at below market money for a few more years.

    And if you want/need (budget for Lee? Wait, the Yankees have a budget? WTF?!?!) to move him in the off-season, you could easily flip him for (top) prospects in the winter.

    Get it done Cash!

    • http://uclabruins.playitusa.com/ Luca10

      And I adf one more thing: I think that ALL the Yankees pitching prospects beside Brackman and Josè Ramirez (and Hughes, of course) should be available in the right package for Haren.

      • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

        Banuelos > Jose Ramirez.

        Younger, he’s a lefty, and he’s at a higher level of competition. Plus he’s had more success at a higher level as well.

        • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

          I’d give up Ramirez much quicker than I’d give up Banuelos.

  • nycsportzfan

    i’d offer them Mcallister and Nova but not buenelos, hes the best Pitching Prospect in the system in my opinion, hes our Pitching “Montero”.. I’d have no problem throwing Nova, who wasen’t all that much of a prospect coming into this yr, albeit, hes pitched very well this yr, and the yanks are such big players in FA’cy, theres no way to fit guys like Brackman, Betances, warren, buenelos, stoneburner,s.hall, phelps, jose ramirez on your team in the future anyways, as there won’t be the spots…

    The most i’d offer is Mcallister, nova and noesi or Joba and McCallister….

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      I wouldn’t mind trading Joba, Nova, McAllister and Noesi, although that’s a lot of pitching depth.

      I’d be somewhat hesitant, but if that’s what it takes to keep Banuelos I’d do it in a heartbeat.

  • kaywizz22

    I’d be willing to include McAllister, Nova, Noesi, Warren and Cervelli for Haren and Snyder. Acquiring Snyder actually benefits this team. He has more pop in his bat then virtually anyone on our bench, and owuld take the sting out of sitting Posada for a day. It is also a very possible Posada gets injured again next year, or maybe even (knock on wood) this year, so Snyder could step right in an provide some offense. Cervelli would not be needed in this case with Montero, Romine and Snyder all in the organization. And all the four pitchers were giving up are 3-5 starters at best. I know it sucks giving up depth, but think about it. How many of those pitchers legit have futures in this organization. A team ike the Yankees that always looks for top-notch talent isn’t going to be filling out rotations with 3-5 starters. And even after that trade, Brackman, Banuelos, Ramirez and Betances remain in the organization, all of which have higher ceilings than the pitchers we’d be giving up. If you can acquire a pitcher of Haren’s talent this cheap, you have to do it.

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      Agreed on pretty much all accounts. Just one thing: can you split your writing into paragraphs next time? That’s all.

  • Nichter

    From what I here this deal could get done but the Yanks just don’t want to take on Haren’s $$$$. So can’t we send them one of our bad contracts? How about Joba, Nova, and Igawa? If they would take on Igawa’s contract then we would take on Haren’s. If they insist on Z-Mac being a part of the deal then so be it.

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      Nobody wants Igawa. If the Dbacks take on Igawa’s contract, that would be the Yankees version of eating some of Haren’s money.

      Igawa would pretty much just be used for the money purposes. The Yankees would still have to give up real prospects (Igawa isn’t one at all.) So the Yankees would still have to give up at least Joba, Nova, McAllister and someone else I’m guessing. Which is just fine in my opinion.

  • rab is loco esse

    I think enough is enough. Sat here quietly reading some crazy posts and some logical well thought out posts. Now please let me apologize especially to pete who found it necessary to correct my grammer. I’m typing on a cell phone and its a bit difficult. I’ve seen manban pitch. I feel he is without doubt Yankees best pitching prospect. He has been compared at times to a young santana. But yes he is young but half of you guys say throw him in trade with joba no bog deal if it gets it done. Wow how much joba value declined. You give up one big blue chip prospect and if you don’t feel joba is that well you’ve given up on him. Can anyone on here say with conviction that there is another team that’s gonna give up the equivalent of joba another top prospect in man ban two backend prospects and eat all money of Haren contract. Sounds like your not following closely. Than some of you want to add romine. Lol. I give up. By way manban looks like real deal.

    • http://soxandpinstripes.net Angelo

      Agreed to some extent. I wouldn’t trade Romine or ManBan. They’re right behind Montero on the prospect charts.

      Joba, Nova, McAllister and take your pick of Warren/Noesi, and I’d do it. Even if the Yankees are forced to eat the money.

  • cranky

    If the Yanks pull off a trade for Haren–or anyone else–it only makes sense for them to deal from a position of strength. They are, after all, the best team in the game this year and have absolutely no reason to act out of desperation.
    The strengths of the Yankees’ system are two-fold, primarily: RH pitching and catching. They’ve got a lot of both of those commodities. Noesi, Warren, Nova, Melancon, Phelps, Brackman, Betances, Ramirez, Stoneburner, McAllister are all legit, to varying degrees. Montero, Romine, Higashioka, Sanchez, Cervelli, Murphy on the catching side. They’ve also got a few other position players with legit ML potential in Adams, Joseph, Laird, Nunez. They’ve got ONE solid LH pitching prospect, and that’s Manny Banuelos.
    It would be dumb, therefore, for them to trade away Banuelos.
    Any deal–whether for Haren, or Soria (either of whom would be a great acquisition)–should involve only players who are expendable. Manny Banuelos is not expendable.
    Haren is a fine, fine pitcher. I’m sure, no matter what’s been “leaked” to the press, that the Yanks would part with the (let’s face it) disappointing Joba Chamberlain to get him. Include any two of the other guys on that list of RH pitching prospects and the deal would be an excellent one for the D’backs.

  • mustang

    ” I include Banuelos, Nova, Z-Mac and Joba, while taking on Chris Snyder (I’ll explain in a bit) and the salary of Haren (which is a completely reasonable salary considering his performance). ”

    Wow! You guys must really like Haren because being here as long as I have this sure doesn’t look like RAB type of move.

    Way too rich for me for what a lot of people think is a luxury move and from what I read Cashman wants this one on his own terms (which the deal above is not). Here is for hoping that the price comes down because that’s the only way I see Haren in pinstripes.

  • RAB is loco ese

    mustang and cranky have it right. Now we need the deejay or MC of this blog along with Pete and the orchestra to admit we are right and they are wrong.

  • Kyle Litke

    Might not be answered now, but where’d the 80 million dollar number come from?

    Jeter at slightly more than 20 million, Mo at 15 million, Pettitte and Vazquez at around 11 million each, plus Nick Johnson at 5.5 million gives you slightly over 60 million. Park would be gone so that’s a tiny but more, but I’m not even able to get to 70 million. I’m coming up with 65 or so, before arbitration for Hughes and Joba, and pretty significant raises for Teixeira/Swisher/Granderson; the raises themselves are another 10 million or so. Say 30 million for Mo and Jeter, you’re down to 25 million, and you have to fill at least two rotation spots. Say Pettitte comes back for 10 million (even though it’d likely be at least what he’s making now), you only have 15 million left for bullpen, DH (maybe just use Montero), and another starter.

    I know this isn’t a payroll discussion, but I’m very curious as to where the 80 million number came from. Did I miss a contract?