Fan Confidence Poll: October 24th, 2011

October 24, 2011 by Mike Axisa 95 Comments

2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS

Top stories from last week:

The Yankees unsurprisingly declined their 2012 option for Damaso Marte, but it’s likely that Nick Swisher‘s option will be picked up. Rafael Soriano is unlikely to opt-out of his contract.
Amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer currently has the “most buzz” for the Angels GM job. The Yankees started their pro-scouting meetings in the Bronx last week.
The front office is unlikely to okay a huge bid for Yu Darvish this offseason, even though the right-hander makes a ton of sense for them.
Curtis Granderson and Bartolo Colon were nominated for some Players Choice Awards. Ivan Nova earned a spot on Baseball America’s All-Rookie Team.
Jesus Montero will not play winter ball this year.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

{democracy:183}

nsalem

I think they will be in on Darvish also, your blog last week on its merits were spot on. I also hope they resign Colon and Garcia at a reasonable price. I think as an aggregate they will outperform the Hughes and Burnett tandem (maybe thats not saying much) in 2012. If Im wrong they can be good bullpen pieces that maybe represent chips in July if need be. If right they provide great insurance for two starting pitches who haven’t exactly been successful as Yankee starters.
- Ted Nelson
  
  I wonder what Colon and Garcia’s market values will be after successful seasons. Certainly the Yankees could afford it, but bringing both back plus bringing in Darvish and re-signing CC would give them 7 MLB starters (CC, Nova, Yu, AJ, Garcia, Hughes, and Colon) plus 7 AAA starters (Noesi, Warren, Phelps, Brackman, Mitchell, Banuelos, and Betances). Great depth, but maybe not the most efficient usage of resources or the best way to develop young starters.
  
  I sort of doubt that both Garcia and Colon would re-sign to potentially be the 6th and 7th starters anyway, given that they’ll likely attract some interest from teams with wide-open rotation spots.
  
  Garcia leaving could net the Yankees a couple of draft picks as well.
  - nsalem
    
    I would bring 7 pitchers because I don’t think AJ or Hughes can perform in this town and I don’t want to totally rely on what we have on the farm yet,
    - Ted Nelson
      
      So start them on the road then. Claims about players not performing in NY are way more ridiculous than claims about Japanese players not performing.
      
      You are also ignoring 95% of my points… I didn’t comment on Hughes and Burnett performing at all, in fact.
      
      The Yankees have strong depth in AAA. Is paying Garcia $5-10 mill next season and Colon $3-7 mill a wise use of resources? Is it better than developing young starters who are in their second seasons above AA? Is it wiser than trying to find this year’s Garcia and Colon, and signing those undervalued guys to minor league deals?
      
      You don’t have to rely on the farm to not outbid the other 29 teams for two guys over 35 with serious shoulder issues coming off their most successful seasons in forever. Sign some other depth pieces. Heck, sign one of them and not the other.
      - nsalem
        
        Ted in all seriousness I think Garcia and Colon will perform better than AJ and Hughes.Colon is older and definitely a risk to get injured but still has a better chance of having a good season as a starter than AJ or Phil. Garcia is only 35 and has several years of middle to back end effectiveness left in him and is not an injury risk. What he does best (delivering quality starts) should translate into a lot of W’s for the Yankees. I have seen enough of AJ and Hughes and honestly don’t think they will ever be consistent starters for the Yankees. They may show us something occasionally, but I don’t think they will ever perform well over the course of a season. I like both of them and I hope I’m wrong.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        I’m not saying they won’t perform better than Burnett and Hughes. I think it’s very close, to the point I really don’t have an opinion on which two will be better (might take the group with Hughes really… since he’s young and appeared injured with that short-arm delivery… fix that delivery or the injury at the root of it and right there that’s a lot of upside… who pitches from their ear? He looked like a SS.).
        
        What I’m saying is that the Yankees don’t have to choose between Gacia and Colon vs. AJ and Hughes. There are dozens and dozens of other options.
        
        What I am also saying is that after having good seasons Garcia and Colon might no longer be bargains. They get progressively less attractive at $5 mill combined, $10 mill combined, $15 mill combined, let alone on multi year deals (in Garcia’s case really).
        
        The Yankees presumably have a lot more intel on their AAA starters than you do. If they don’t like them as immediate depth, they can trade a few or sign some free agent who is not named Garcia or Colon.
        
        nsalem
        
        I might give Garcia 2/10 definitely not Colon. I see your point. I just fell we have been trying to fix AJ and Phil for quite a long time now.
    - Jimmy McNulty
      
      I think there is a point behind the nonsense here. Hughes has been pretty disappointing as a Yankee, we may as well give up on Phil Hughes the exciting young starter and say hello to Phil Hughes the back end starter. He’s been pretty bad outside of one stint in the bullpen, and a stellar first half in 2010. Other than that he’s been often times injured, had nothing on his fastball, had zero command, and he’s never really showed a viable third pitch. A two pitch starter that throws 92? Yeah, that isn’t happening. AJ, we all know his struggles and history. Maybe having two more viable ML starters wouldn’t be a bad thing, god knows this team’s always had to scramble with the rotation…maybe having legitimate options with big league success would be a positive use of resources.
      - Ted Nelson
        
        Not relying on Hughes and AJ doesn’t mean you have to re-sign Garcia and Colon both. There are other options outside the organization as well as inside. That’s the point I raised to nsalem and we were discussing.
Holy Ghost

I’d like to see the Yankees get Darvish but not at “Any” price. 75 to 100 million for a pitcher with no mlb experience is ridiculously risky.
- Tom Swift
  
  I would be interested in seeing a piece on how the market for Darvish might shake out: Who are the likely bidders, how high are they likely to go, what kind of contract Darvish is looking for. My guess is that, even though Dice K has not been a huge success in MLB, landing Darvish will require at least as much money, since Darvish is probably a better pitcher.
  - nsalem
    
    What does Darvish have to do with Dice K?
    - Holy Ghost
      
      They both have been successful in Japanese baseball. Success in Japan doesn’t necessarily translate into success in the MLB because the ball is different, the mound is higher, the strikezone is different, they travel less, the seasons are shorter, and the hitters aren’t as good. None of that means that Darvish will be like Dice-K or worse, Kei Igawa. However, he’s a very risky investment…
      - Ted Nelson
        
        All expensive pitchers are risky investments. If a team has a good scouting department and gets him at a fair/reasonable market price I think the difference in risk with Yu Darvish vs. a big MLB FA is more on the margins than you let on.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        The risk is actually greater than for a major league FA because we have no idea how he will perform against big league hitters.
        
        The risk level in signing a pitcher from Japan is about equal to an above average college or high school prospect like Strausburg.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        I didn’t say it was less risky, I said the difference is more marginal than you let on.
        
        It is not the same as drafting a kid out of HS. Not the same at all. Even if DiceK is a “bust” he has still accumulated 10.6 fWAR in MLB. Irabu had 4 fWAR. It is far more common for a top HS pitcher to have no MLB success at all. The (injury-free) floor of a Japanese stud in his mid-20s is totally different from an 18 year old HS kid and I would even say a top college pitcher.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Darvish shouldn’t be pursued. I just think the estimates out what it will cost to get him here are outrageous. He’s worth the risk up to a certain point. The Yanks have the money to overpay to bring talent to NY but it doesn’t mean they should.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        What it costs to get all big free agents is ridiculous, and there’s risk associated with all of those deals. That’s what people are saying to you. Dunn, Werth, and Crawford were all very well established MLB studs and hitters are generally less volatile than pitchers… yet all three had career-worst type seasons for their new teams.
        
        There are a few factors that might actually make Darvish less costly relative to MLB free agents, but again you are ignoring them. The posting fee doesn’t count against the luxury tax, and it isn’t even paid unless you sign the player. This saves money and puts you in a strong negotiating position if you win the bid. The player has less leverage than an MLB free agent who is available to all teams. Yu is also 25, giving him an advantage over most MLB free agent pitchers.
        
        Not discussing the issues and insisting on how risky Japanese pitchers are to the point of comparing them to HS pitchers is where the assumption that you are just being xenophobic come from.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        The Yankees are clearly interested in Darvish given that they’ve scouted him for a while but they’re not the only team interested. The only reason to make a huge bid for a player with no major league experience is desperation and the Yanks are not desperate. Darvish is on their agenda but their first priority has to be keeping CC.
        
        And your xenophobia comment is nonsense. In no way have I expressed anything against Japanese players. All I’ve highlighted is that there are differences between how the game is played in Japan versus the US. Success in one place doesn’t always translate to success in other places due to the differences in the game and the difficulty of making the transition.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        The other reason to make a bid for a player with no MLB experience is that you expect very good performance.
        
        No player had any MLB success before they played in MLB. None. It’s not possible. Yes there is downside risk, but there is also upside risk.
        
        Your insistence on stating ideas about Japanese pitchers you have done nothing to substantiate and are in some cases are verifably wrong is what makes you look xenophobic.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        “No player had any MLB success before they played in MLB. None. It’s not possible. Yes there is downside risk, but there is also upside risk.”
        
        True but that’s not the point is it?
        
        The point is how much the Yankees might have to spend to sign him, not all the other stuff you’re mentioning. Teams typically don’t invest $100 million into signing prospects with no experience in the big leagues.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        The point is that you are wrong for comparing him to HS prospects, demonstrably wrong. The success rate/floor is much higher.
        
        The other point is that to get a comparably talented MLB pitcher, you will likewise be paying $100 mill+ and those pitchers bust all the time too. They are volatile and risky. And good ones are scarce as hell.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Comparing Japanese pro baseball, by the way, to US high school baseball is where you start to sound xenophobic.
        
        Not understanding the level of competition or why the market value for a Japanese pro controlled by a Japanese team is higher than that of a HS player who can’t sign with any team but your team that year and won’t be able to sign with any team but whatever team drafts him every year.
      - nsalem
        
        Many white pitchers have performed great in small markets and then come to New York and really been awful. Jeff Weaver, AJ Burnett, Carl Pagano, Kenny Rogers and Ed Whitson. I can name many more but don’t have the time. Can you name any white men that have come here in the last 20 years that have outperformed their small market success. I think it’s the small market white man thats the real problem and I believe it is due to a lack of mental agility as opposed to skill. At least if a japanese pitchers comes here and fails they probably won’t be reading RAB and finding out what people think of them.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        This has nothing to do with race. There are lots of differences between how pro-baseball is played in Japan versus the US. Not only is the talent pool in the US better than Japan but the ball is different, the strikezone is different, and the mound is different. The Yanks should try to sign Darvish but no at “any” cost…
        
        nsalem
        
        Okay it’s no race Talent pools is worse? How do you account for Japan winning WBC’s. Has the USA won any (I don’t know the answer). How do you account for so many American born ball players coming here from other MLB Cities and never playing up to their former levels (Curtis Granderson being the exception).
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Good points.
        
        Ed
        
        How do you account for so many American born ball players coming here from other MLB Cities and never playing up to their former levels (Curtis Granderson being the exception).
        
        Age. Most are coming over as free agents. Players tend to be at or near their peak when they reach free agency. If you give someone a long term free agent deal, odds are they will decline over the course of it.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Jeff Weaver and Javier Vazquez were traded for at 25 and 27 years old… Pavano was 29. Before or in their theoretical primes.
        
        I don’t believe nsalem is literally trying to say that white pitchers do worse in NY than small markets. I could be wrong, but I think it’s a facetious way of saying that volatility among pitchers is not limited to Japanese pitchers.
        
        Jimmy McNulty
        
        Pavano was a gutless coward and he had a bit of the “unluckiest man in the world” syndrome, Javier Vazquez always struggled with giving up flyballs and in the AL East that gets you killed, and was Jeff Weaver ever good?
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Does your comment have anything to do with the discussion or do you just like being a prick?
        
        This comment was about age. Nothing to do with the guts of any of these pitchers. Age.
        
        Do you not have access to fangraphs.com? Can you not go on there to see that Weaver had a combined 8.6 fWAR his 24 and 25 year old seasons?
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        Because of the international talent pool in the MLB, the game is played at a higer level than professional baseball leagues in pretty much any other country. Besides that, the seasons in the NLB are very long and there’s a lot more traveling.
        
        You can’t compare major league free agents to players coming from other countries. It’s a much tougher transition for a free agent with no major league experience no matter where he’s from.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        “You can’t compare major league free agents to players coming from other countries.”
        
        You have done absolutely nothing to prove this. Just said they’re from a different league… and only pointed to guys of a specific race.
        
        Nomo and DiecK had very good success immediately upon arriving (and faded later), so I don’t see where you’re coming up with this. Nothing fits your narrative except xenophobia.
        
        As nsalem and I have pointed out, there are tons of seasoned MLB players who bust every season.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        You’re missing the point. Just because a player does well in Japan doesn’t mean he’ll do well in American pro-baseball. There are several differences between how the game is played there versus here. Some players easily make the transition and some don’t(ie El Duque versus Jose Contrearas).
        
        Signing players from other countries to major league deals is riskier than signing major league free-agents but it doesn’t mean the Yankees shouldn’t take the risk…
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        No, you are missing the point… I understand your point, and am saying you have done nothing to prove it. Just appealed to xenophobia. You can make all the same claims about proven MLB players: “some perform well after signing big FA deals, and some don’t.”
        
        In fact, Jose Contreras had a similarly successful career to El Duque: 18.9 fWAR for Contreras vs. 18.8 fWAR for Duque. Contreras topped out at 4.2 fWAR, Duque at 3.5.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        Jose didn’t make as smooth a transition as El Duque. He was good at times but inconsistent with the Yanks. He got better after leaving NY.
        
        El Duque made a relatively smoother transition in his first few years with the Yankees. He declined after leaving NY but he was already relatively old when he came into the major leagues.
        
        Again, I have no problem with signing Japanese players. I’m not sure why people are making this an ethnic thing. Darvish has no experience pitching in the major leagues. The only comps we have to compare him to are other pitchers who had gone from Japanese pro-baseball to the major leagues since baseball in Japan is different from other countries.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        You are making it an ethnic thing by refusing to acknowledge that there is a ton of risk in signing any pitcher to a 5+ year deal worth tens of millions of dollars, no matter their race or past experience. That is the point people are making to you (myself and nsalem), and you keep ignoring or disagreeing with.
        
        You are the one comparing him to Cubans, not me. You did that incorrectly. That the Yankees gave up on Contreras too early doesn’t matter. That was their choice, and ultimately their mistake. Contreras had a 3.2 FIP in 71 IP as a rookie. He made the transition just fine, but the Yankees got rid of
        
        You are comparing him to Japanese pitchers incorrectly too… Nomo and DiceK both had their most successful MLB seasons as rookies. Where is your evidence that the immediate transition is harder than sustaining the success? You keep talking about the differences between the leagues and how that makes the transition difficult, but where’s the evidence?
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        And you have not addressed the WBC point. Japan beats all other countries, yet they have less talent?
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        The WBC is irrelevant. In the Major Leagues, teams aren’t divided by country and lineups have fewer amateurs.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        No the WBC is not irrelevant. You keep ignoring every point someone makes to contradict you. You are claiming that Japan has less talent. In fact, they beat every other country in a head-to-head competition. Why are players from Taiwan, Australia, Cuba, DR, Venezuela, the United States, Canada… riskier than players from than from Japan? If, as you claim, the adjustment is the hard part (and I don’t think there’s anything proving this out since the best Japanese players have excelled immediately… Nomo, DiceK, Ichiro, Matsui…) why can’t Japanese players make adjustments?
        
        You keep saying there is no correlation between success in Japan and success in MLB… “some guys can transition, some can’t.” Yet have done nothing to prove this. All you’d have to do to substantiate your claims would be to look at relevant stats from Japan and see if there’s a correlation.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        *less risky than
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        “No the WBC is not irrelevant”
        
        In no way can you compare the WBC, a tournament, to Major League. That’s as silly as saying that the team that wins the World Series is the best team in baseball.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        You don’t understand the context in which WBC was brought up apparently.
        
        You said that Japanese players are less talented than the players in MLB. You have a point that the MLB is a compilation of the best players from multiple countries, and with its financial strength is more talented than, say, the Japanese league… valid point. Doesn’t actually address the context in which WBC was brought up.
        
        The WBC was brought up to say that if Japanese players are at least as good as US, DR, etc. players, why are they any more risky than players from those countries? That their “talent pool” should be as deep as other countries (relative to population, baseball enthusiasm, etc.).
        
        There is a marginal difference in risk because they haven’t played in MLB. I said upfront that I agree. You are making it seem like these guys are HUGE risks compared to proven MLB players, though. People are pointing out to you that proven MLB players are also HUGE risks on big deals and you keep ignoring reality there.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        “The WBC was brought up to say that if Japanese players are at least as good as US, DR, etc. players, why are they any more risky than players from those countries? ”
        
        I’ve never said Japanese players are “more” risky than players from other countries.
        
        I’ve said players with no major league experience are more risky than major league free agents.
        
        I’ve also said the talent pool in Japanese pro-baseball is not as good as the overall talent in the Major Leagues. Which you seem to agree with.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        I have said that I agree there is more risk, but that it’s marginal. That you are making a mountain out of a molehill. Tons of established MLB players bust too.
        
        Holy Ghost
        
        “I have said that I agree there is more risk, but that it’s marginal. That you are making a mountain out of a molehill. Tons of established MLB players bust too.”
        
        I’m not making a mountain of a molehill. You guys are by focusing some much on the ethnic,nationality thing which is a total non-issue.
        
        Saying that “it ‘might’ be too risky to invest 100 million into signing a player with no MLB experience” is not the same as saying “I hate Japanese players.”
        
        It’s difficult to argue when you’re attributing things to me that I haven’t said.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        You are making a mountain out of a molehill in terms of the difference in risk between handing a Japanese pitcher and US pitcher with the same scouting report $100 million.
        
        It might be too risky to give just about any pitcher $100 mill, whatever their nationality, ethnicity, and previous success. Very successful MLB pitchers don’t live up to $100 mill deals all the time.
        
        nsalem
        
        Your right. Is that why we can’t get any great players from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela?
        
        Dave B
        
        That’s a pretty broad brush you’re using. CC for one “has outperformed their small market success”. Garcia is another that outperformed his last 5-6 years in smaller markets. I guess they don’t qualify as “white men” however, but I don’t think that makes a difference. It’s all rolling the dice when it comes to getting a P to perform well on the NY stage.
        
        nsalem
        
        I agree 100%. CC and Garcia don’t quality as white men. The other pitchers I mentioned however do and they all seemed to be unable to deal with NYC. There is quite a large sample size of these caucasian failures maybe Paulie was the last exception.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        What does it have to do with NY? Guys fail all over the country.
        
        Mike Mussina didn’t do too badly in NY, by the way, nor did Roger Clemens. They were just 32 and 36 by the time they got to NY.
        
        http://RiverAveBlues.com Matt Warden
        
        The five or six guys you noted form “a large sample size of these caucasian failures.”
        
        This sounds pretty suspect to me nsalem. I don’t see any tangible evidence that correlates their struggles to their race.
        
        nsalem
        
        Clemens last 10 years 5 with Yankees 3 with Houston and 2 with Tornoto. 5 lowest ERA plus years were with the Yankees.
        
        nsalem
        
        Well theirs also Knoblauch, Giambi, Johnson,Karsay, and Wright. Let’s say your right and I’m wrong. Wouldn’t that make the people who compare Darvish, Irabiu and Igawa wrong also? I rarely see people objecting to that meme on this board.
        
        BK2ATL
        
        I object to it, but that doesn’t matter. People have their own way of seeing things. You’re not going to change their minds, as you continually see Igawa and Irabu brought up, even by bloggers and writers, each time Darvish’s name is mentioned. So it’s not limited to the posters. It’s a narrative that’s grown legs, even if misguided.
        
        I’m guessing that if Darvish were Korean, they’d jump all over him because of what Wang did here…..Or are all Asians suddenly the same? The xenophobia related to baseball when it involves Japanese players…..
        
        None of it makes it right, but that WBC point you bring up is very interesting.
        
        In the end, I really hope that we make a run at Darvish.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Wang is from Taiwan…
        
        You won’t convince everyone certainly, but you can challenge some people to justify their beliefs. When their beliefs are factually or logically wrong, their arguments lose a lot of steam.
        
        nsalem
        
        I feel it is a racist narrative that must be taken to task otherwise it will perpetuate and that is wrong
        
        Dave B
        
        Mussina was a pretty good pitcher that didn’t wilt despite his small market roots. This thread is starting to get illogical, because if you think about it what you’re saying is that the Yankees should avoid hiring anyone but people of color.
        
        I’m not going to spend time breaking down a list by color or ethnicity, but there have been non-white players that have flamed out here. On a percentage basis, there is a much higher ratio of Japanese players failing for the Yankees than other races. If you use this logic, then you could make the reverse statement they should only target American players.
        
        nsalem
        
        Mussina was an exception because he possessed a superior intellect. He is truly a credit to his race.
        
        BK2ATL
        
        Remember that Chappelle Show skit “Racial Draft?” Funny stuff.
        
        I’ll trade you Mike Mussina for…..
        
        Jose M. Vazquez..
        
        I’ll just drop my two cents in and say that this information disinformation thing is being used to devalue Darvish’s price. This type of tactic has been used mostly by government agencies in the past and it seems to work.
        
        Alibaba
        
        My memory could be off. But, aren’t Hispanics classified as whites on the census form?
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        I don’t think it has much to do with the “NY stage.” Plenty of veteran pitchers lose their effectiveness in far smaller markets than NY.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        The scrutiny of the Kansas City media really got to poor Gil Meche, too…
        
        nsalem
        
        and Barry Zito was pelted with quiche and sushi in SF
      - nedro
        
        Interesting piece in yesterday’s NY Times (sports section) about efforts in the Japanese leagues to standardize the ball they use and make it more like the ball used in MLB. I guess as it stands now, teams have long-standing relationships with ball manufacturers that they honor, which leads to different teams using different balls, and its a mess, especially when it comes to Pitchers transitioning to MLB or competing in International tourneys like the WBC. I dunno how to post a link, but it’s in the latest Sunday times, so check it out.
        
        Jose M. Vazquez..
        
        I read it too and they seem to be on their way to standardize the ball that they will use during the season’
- meaty balls
  
  its just money though…the yanks have alot of that… just a thought.
- meaty balls
  
  i thought yall were yankee fans win no matter what no matter the cost…
Alibaba

Yu Darvish is intriguing and the Yankees might go after him. Cashman does not always reveal his hand.
Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

Nothing has changed. 9 before. 9 now.
Cris Pengiucci

I’m slightly below my ususal 8 in confidence right now (due to the pitching situation, largely, but also the Oppenheimer situation), so I voted a 7 this week. This will change, I’m sure, once things settle down. Long term, I think the organization will be fine and will compete year after year. 2012 may be a bit of a challenge. We’ll see how things shake out.
- Dave B
  
  I stayed at 8. There is no evidence except for various blurbs about CC here and there, which makes sense considering the World Series blackout.
Andy In Sunny Daytona

I think the Cashman resigning talks will be interesting. I’m sure he will ask for “full autonomy”…again. This time I hope he actually gets it and is able to shut Randy Levine out of any player personnel decisions altogether.
- nsalem
  
  Cashman is resigning?
  - Andy In Sunny Daytona
    
    re-signing. My bad
  - The Big City of Dreams
    
    Yes and Levine is taking over
JohnC

Tonight’s start could greatly define CJ Wilson’s FA value one way or the other. If he gets lit up, he can kiss his 100 mill dream goodbye.
BK2ATL

I’m going with a 7. It would be higher if the following was in place:

– We were certain that CC would not opt out and is a definite for 2012 and the future; or until he is re-signed
– Cashman’s deal was signed sealed and delivered
– The Oppenheimer saga ends one way or another
– It is certain that we will be in on Darvish or another quality starter this offseason
– My personal wish that Girardi gets a bench coach to help him with offensive strategy. He repeatedly gets outcoached by the better managers in the game. Just my opinion vs. the Leylands, Showalters, Scoscias, etc.
– Another LOOGY needed, with none in the system. Boone Logan is it.

While we are still burdened by having to find a place for AJ Burnett, due to his contract, non-tradeability and inconsistency, you still have to be optimistic in the organization since we have Montero about to step up for good (hopefully), with Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, Betances, Brackman, and Laird possibly on the cusp as well. We’ll just have to find places to utilize them.

Further done the system, Gary Sanchez, Mason Williams, Dante Bichette Jr, amongst others, inspire some real confidence in organizational depth.
- Ted Nelson
  
  Scioscia is one of the better managers in the game and a Hughes-for-Danks deal makes sense… boy are you on fire!
  - BK2ATL
    
    Scioscia is certainly one of the better managers in the game, and that was my point. Girardi can’t consistently match wits with them. While I’m sure they also study stats and trends prior to the games/series, in-game strategy also must rely on instinct. If you recall, it was against the Angels when the infamous black binder came out on national TV.
    
    Offensive strategy must be addressed. There’s a fundamental misunderstanding on when to bunt, when to put on the straight steal, when to take pitches, etc. We get by many times on just talent, not offensive teamwork.
    
    Danks for Hughes does make sense. And don’t forget about us making a run at Kemp in 2013, if he hits FA.
    - Ted Nelson
      
      Scioscia is the manager who played Jeff franking Mathis over Mike Napoli. He is a punch line.
      
      Girardi knows less about baseball than you? That’s what you’re saying?
      
      Danks is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, why on earth would the White Sox even consider trading him straight-up for a guy who might never start again? That’s beyond ridiculous. Hughes is all of one year younger and one year further away from free agency. John Danks has had a season where he almost matched Phil Hughes’ career fWAR.
      - BK2ATL
        
        Napoli wasn’t hitting in LA anywhere like he is hitting in Texas. It was a very bad trade to go after Wells. I have no idea who Napoli pissed off in LA that he needed to be dealt for Vernon Wells. Do you???
        
        When did I compare myself to Girardi? Do you know more or less than him? My comment was an observation of continuing thread for our offense this year and in past years. And a frustration even observed repeatedly by the OP here.
        
        Danks will be a FA after 2012. Hughes after 2013. It is widely acknowledged that the White Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. We can help them with that. Hughes might just need a change of scenery, esp. if Noesi pitches well this winter ball. Same way that Kennedy florished in Arizona.
        
        What inside info do you have that explicitly states that Hughes might never start again???
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Napoli wasn’t hitting *as well* but he was still hitting very well in LA. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3057&position=C
        
        You said “There’s a fundamental misunderstanding on when to bunt, when to put on the straight steal, when to take pitches, etc.” This implies that you do have the understanding, otherwise how can you say Girardi’s understanding is wrong? You directly imply you understand baseball better than Girardi. Maybe you do, but that’s a very bold claim.
        
        I specifically said their FAs are one year apart, thanks for repeating that. What does a bad farm have to do with one extra year?
        
        Danks is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Why are the White Sox giving him away? I think you are seriously underselling how good Danks is. The White Sox are not trading Danks for Hughes straight-up. I will bet you any amount of money you’d like.
        
        Hughes might never start again because he’s been a lousy start for years now. If he’s injured or awful again in ST… might end up in the bullpen.
Paul VuvuZuvella

In again at my Auto-8.
Rich in NJ

How they handle Montero (i.e., let him catch around 50 games and DH 100 games), will reveal a lot about how well this organization is run.
- Ted Nelson
  
  You are going to judge the entire organization based on whether they handle one specific player the exact way you think he should be handled? Besides one player being a very small sample to judge on, why are you such an authority on how Jesus Montero should be handled?
  - Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)
    
    Agreed.
    
    How Jesus Montero handles Jesus Montero will reveal a lot about how Jesus Montero runs himself.
    
    If he builds off of what he did in September, Rich will have litle to worry about next year.
- BK2ATL
  
  I agree. While it appears that they don’t see him as THE starting catcher in the future, in a role as a backup (40-50 games), he’ll definitely be a valuable and versatile weapon, esp. in conjunction with Russell Martin next year. I also see him as Tex’ backup at 1st for 10-20 games. C,1B,DH. (Yeah, I’m already thinking fantasy baseball too.)
  
  Now what happens in 2013??? Do we re-sign Martin? Or, do we promote Romine and let he and Montero handle the catching duties? Sanchez is on the way, as well.
  
  Either way, we’re in a great situation.
  - Holy Ghost
    
    I have a feeling that the team is grooming Romine to takeover after Martin is gone. The Yanks either don’t have much confidence in Jesus’ ability to be an everyday catcher or they think his bat would be more effective if he isn’t catching everyday.
    - BK2ATL
      
      I think so as well, but Romine looked overmatched at the plate. Defensively, I haven’t heard that he’s anything special, just better than Montero, which apparently isn’t saying much. Hopefully, they both tighten up behind the plate and inspire some confidence in the future.
      
      I remember when Posada took over for Girardi. It wasn’t that Posada was a better defensive catcher, or even great. It was moreso that his brought energy, fire, and a better switch-hitting bat. He made them make the decision to let Girardi go. Hopefully, Montero or Romine step up in a similar way, to allow the Yanks to let Martin go.
      - Ted Nelson
        
        Girardi made the decision for them as much as Posada. Girardi’s last season in pinstripes he was below replacement level. His wOBA was .275. Posada was young and above replacement level… a combined 4.6 fWAR Girardi’s last two seasons in pinstripes… so giving him playing time instead of Girardi was a no-brainer. Posada was the starter and Girardi the back-up two seasons before they let Girardi go.
    - Jose M. Vazquez..
      
      I think both: no confidence in his abilities to catch and that he will be more durable if he is not catching every day.
  - Jose M. Vazquez..
    
    I think it will be the tandem of Montero and Romine in 2013 unless Martin hits .320 with 100 rbis and 25 Hr and an OPS of 915.
Jimmy McNulty

Yeah wow, I like it when I’m not the biggest tool in the thread. Anyways, I’m at a three…re-sign Cashman, pick up Swisher’s option, and bring back CC that number obviously goes way up. Sign Darvish and it goes up again. I’m interested to see what Cashman does with the bench and the bullpen this year. Outside of signing expensive relievers, Cashman’s done a pretty good job with the bullpen and he’s put together a legit bench for the past three years.