Oct
17

Fan Confidence Poll: October 17th, 2011

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2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS

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Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Categories : Polls
  • Paul VuvuZuvella (formerly Nuke LaDoosh)

    Cash coming back, rSox imploding, All 30 pre-season Baseball America Top Yankee Prospects still in the system. The CC dance will end with the Big Man still in Pinstripes (Pinstripes are slimming, it’s a natural fit.)

    Put me down at 8…and 8 is great.

  • Doug

    Now that everyone’s had a week to take a deep breath (last week’s was the 5th lowest of the season), interested to see how the voting turns out.

    I’m at an unwavering 7. Not thrilled with the long-term contracts doled out to our aging veterans, but like our core group of youngsters. They provide a solid fuondation for the future.

    Very interested to see how the CC works itself out. Personally, I’d offer him a bit more $ but would hold firm to 4 years. Just don’t think he’ll hold up much beyond that.

  • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

    9, since nothing has happened since the last time I voted 9, and I don’t exactly see things going any differently than how I think they’re going to go. Did I mention 9?

    Oh yeah….the Yankees are better than either World Series team. Best of 5 can suck my nuts.

    • MannyGeee

      Nolan Ryan takes offense.

      • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

        I still appreciate the no-hitters, Mr. Ryan.

    • steve s

      Your last line is why I voted a six. The Tigers, Rangers, Brewers and Cardinals all add up to a lot of mediocrity to me which the Yanks failed to rise above. If the Yanks were unlucky that’s one thing but they should have made it past Tigers and Rangers and wiped the floor with the Cards. Their failure to do so makes me think I’ve been overvaluing them. With the roster inflexibilty looming for 2012 and the continuing aging of key components of the roster I’m not confident that enough key changes will be made to make the post-season 2012 outcome any different than that of 2010 or 2011 even though the regular season success will probably be maintained.

      • CS Yankee

        Have you ever played craps?

      • Ted Nelson

        “With the roster inflexibilty looming for 2012″

        What?

        Positionally they have one of the better players in the league at every spot good for one of the best offenses and defenses in baseball, one of the top prospects in baseball rising, and a good C prospect in AAA. Who do you want to change?

        Pitching wise they have to at least resign if not replace the majority of their rotation, have a glut of pitching prospects in the high minors, and have one of the best pens around with one of their best relievers returning from injury.

        “If the Yanks were unlucky that’s one thing but they should have made it past Tigers and Rangers and wiped the floor with the Cards.”

        So if they unlucky you have no point?

        • steve s

          There are only 2 line-up changes possible for the Yanks; one is Swisher and one is DH. If Swisher comes back and if Yanks continue to give DH at bats to Arod and use it as a weigh station for resting other regulars you have zero flexibility in the starting line-up with Montero picking up some but not a critical mass of at bats. The major positional/DH free agents (Reyes, Prince, Pujols) can’t fit anywhere on the Yanks. Perhaps the Yanks pick-up a free agent pitcher but at least 4 of 5 starters are already in place (counting CC, AJ, Hughes and Nova). The bullpen top 3 and Logan are set so all of the foregoing adds up to seeing the same main players in 2012 as we had in 2011. If I thought the Yanks were unlucky then, yes, I would have confidence in essentially bringing back the same team and my 6 would be an 8 or 9. But adding one year more to the aging stars and the thought of Arod,Tex and Swisher being my 4-5-6 in next year’s playoffs doesn’t give me confidence that the post-season results will be different in 2012. I’m not sayng I have a solution but I don’t see the Yanks having one either.

          • JohnnyC

            Way station and weigh station are two different things. Although we could use a weigh station for CC definitely.

            • steve s

              Got me on that one. Probably has too much CC abnd Prince in mind!

          • Ted Nelson

            “There are only 2 line-up changes possible for the Yanks”

            And the question I am asking you is what other changes could you want to make? Why would you even want to make the Swisher change unless you were getting one of the maybe handful of RFs who are better? Why replace someone with an inferior player? With the Yankees’ line-up there is a lot more room for replacement with an inferior player than superior.

            At the same time that is not even true. They could trade most of their players outside of A-Rod, Jeter, and maybe Tex. If they want to make a change, they can trade an incumbent. Again, though, who are you going to trade Cano, Granderson, Gardner, Montero, Martin, Swisher, Nunez for and who are you going to replace them with?

            There’s the flexibility, just not much motivation to change things given that they have one of the best line-ups in MLB.

            “Perhaps the Yanks pick-up a free agent pitcher but at least 4 of 5 starters are already in place (counting CC, AJ, Hughes and Nova).”

            CC is not in place once he opts out.

            4 still leaves one spot to pick up a CJ Wilson or Yu Darvish or other acquisition if they see value there, and there is plenty of flexibility offered by having Noesi, Phelps, Warren, Mitchell, Banuelos, Betance, and Brackman all MLB ready or close.

            “The bullpen top 3 and Logan are set”

            Again… this is not a bad thing. And it’s the top 4 + Logan + probably Wade. This is like the line-up. They could trade a D-Rob or Joba or Logan or Mo… but for whom?

            “If I thought the Yanks were unlucky”

            They lost game 5 by one run. They lost game 3 by one run. They lost game 2 by two runs… A few things happen differently and they could not only win that series, but sweep it. That’s luck.

            “But adding one year more to the aging stars”

            Again… what are you blabbering about? Adding another year to Jeter helped him… he was better in 2011 than 2010. Tex is 31… that’s not old. A-Rod was by far the best 3B in baseball when healthy. Posada is gone in all likelihood. What other aging stars are there? Mo?

      • Slugger27

        most of this comment doesnt make a whole lot of sense, but lets start with this…. what roster inflexibility are you talking about? theyre returning essentially everyone from a top 3 offense in mlb, but replacing an old useless DH with a young and talented DH.

        • steve s

          On that point I’m not following why it’s so hard to grasp. You said it yourself; they’re returning essentally everyone (hence roster inflexibility). The Yanks are not even in the conversation as to Reyes, Prince or Pujols because of that inflexibility.

          • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

            Why would they need to be in the conversation for any of those players? Upgrading from, say, Tex to Pujols isn’t the difference in winning a championship. Both are elite players.

            The place where there actually is the most roster flexibility is where the biggest needs, to me, are: starting pitching.

            • steve s

              If the focus is on post-season performance it certainly would be an upgrade from Tex to Pujols!

              • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

                ….which is the ridiculous narrative that, somehow, what happened over a five-game stretch cancels everything else out.

                Yes, the guy hits right into the shift pretty damn often. I’ll gladly keep that AND every jam he gets the team out of with his defense. He is the furthest thing from the problem but, hey, keep on feeding the narrative.

                • Ted Nelson

                  Especially because with the volatility of a 5 game sample it was easily possible that Tex went on a tear to advance the Yankees while Pujols was cold and Cards got knocked out… In that case it would not hold true that Tex is better than Pujols. Just like in this case we can’t put too much stock into the tiny sample. Pujols is better than Tex, but Tex is still very good.

                  The “irreversible decline” of Tex is another thing that gets on my nerves. I hope he re-tools his swing and has a monster year. He’s only going to be 32, so he should be completely physically capable of it.

          • Ted Nelson

            A. There’s a difference between inflexibility and having such a good team you can’t upgrade easily for a reasonable price. The Yankees could easily trade and replace Gardner, Granderson, Cano, Martin, Montero, Romine, very possibly Tex, Nunez… the only inflexibility is Jeter and A-Rod.

            B. The Yankees are mentioned in regard to Prince Fielder and Pujols both. Reasonable people don’t see why they’d block Montero with Fielder at the price he will likely command, though, or sign Pujols at that age for the length he will likely command.

          • Slugger27

            they had 1 everyday position player that had less than 3 WAR, and that was jeter’s 2.3.

            i probably didnt word it right originally, but im not saying their roster is flexible necessarily, but more arguing why you’re making it out to be a bad thing. when i think about a “roster inflexibility” issue, i think of albatross contracts guaranteeing playing time to undeserving players.

            to me, the yankees are only “inflexible” because they’re already getting great production out of established veterans everywhere, and no replacement is needed.

      • what the uck

        I agree with you steve s. i’m a little worried.

        • steve s

          Thanks Uck!

  • MannyGeee

    Still an 8, always an 8.

    wish we were not saddled with another 1/2 decade of A-Rod at 30M per… but thems the breaks.

    • Hardy

      12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

      http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....60040.html

      • http://www.twitter.com/matt__harris Matt :: Sec110

        what a bargin!

        • CP

          I can’t wait until 2014. That extra $3M can be used to sign an injured LOOGY. And then a replacement the next year for $4M.

      • Doug

        Except if he stays reasonably healthy and productive (a big IF, yes), could be $30M richer. Assuming his HR total over the next 6 seasons is 26,25,24,22,20,17, we’ll be paying him:

        12:$29M, 13:$34M, 14:$25M, 15:$27M, 16:$20M, 17:$38M (yikes)

        • Hardy

          That’s true. But look at the 3B who had about 134 over the last six seasons:

          Youkilis (121), Jones (123), Zimmermann (128), Wright (142), Beltre (144).

          Would you say their teams were “saddled” with them.

          • Doug

            No, you’re right. Not when they’ve only made a combined $241M across those 30 seasons (only 39% more than ARod could make himself).

            • Hardy

              Yeah, the Yankees would have gotten the same production at 3B a lot cheaper if they would have not drafted John-Ford Griffin and Bronson Sardinha over David Wright in 2001.

              But your scenario has A-Rod as a 4-5 WAR player for the next six seasons plus the all-time records for HR, R and RBI plus 3000 hits and some more milestones. I am sure that the Yankees would gladly pay 12:$29M, 13:$34M, 14:$25M, 15:$27M, 16:$20M, 17:$38M for that guaranteed production if A-Rod were a free agent today.

              • Freddy Garcia’s 86 mph Heat

                I am sure that the Yankees would gladly pay 12:$29M, 13:$34M, 14:$25M, 15:$27M, 16:$20M, 17:$38M for that guaranteed production if A-Rod were a free agent today.

                That is nowhere near guaranteed production and nobody would pay that much for ARod now.

                • Hardy

                  Of course that production is not guaranteed. But Doug presented it as a problem(!) that A-Rod might hit 134 HR over the next six seasons. And I pointed out that this is pretty clearly not the problem of the current A-Rod contract.

                  • Doug

                    And I agree with you Hardy, if the Yankees could get a guaranteed > 25 WAR over the next seasons from him, they’d be more than happy to pay him the $173M owed him.

                    However, it’s much more likely that he’ll be a 15 WAR player over that time, and then we will indeed be “saddled” with the $143M we’ll be paying him.

                    • Hardy

                      Yeah, I agree with your expectation of A-Rod’s WAR.

                      However, this still it won’t be that bad. If we expect him to produce 15 WAR and the average price for 1 WAR over this seasons is $5.5M. Let’s also assume that he gets to 3000 hits and the RBI & R records. Let’s say the Yankees value that at $10M (see Jeter’s contract). Now the Yankees pay $155M for something that is woth just $92.5M. So they get about 60 cents of value for one dollar. That is obviously below average but not that bad compared to some other contracts out there.

              • Slugger27

                that last sentence is just completely absurd.

                • Hardy

                  So you disagree? What would the Yankees pay for that guaranteed production?

                  (Remember, per Doug’s post, we are in hypothetical world where we assume that A-Rod’s HR numbers for the upcoming years are 26,25,24,22,20,17.)

                  • Slugger27

                    i disagree that the yankees “gladly” pay $173M over the next 6 years for those homerun totals

                    • Hardy

                      1) The Yankees gave him the contract that pays him that much over the last six seasons.
                      2) I don’t think their expectation was more than 134 HR over these last six seasons.
                      3) The A-Rod deal is pretty frontloaded.

                      That leads me to the conclusion that the Yankees would gladly pay that much for him.

                    • Slugger27

                      1) hank steinbrenner gave him that contract. it appears all other parties were against it
                      2) we’ve seen a physical decline from arod and a steroid scandal since the contract was signed
                      3) i have to imagine all parties other than arod and boras immediately regretted everything about that contract… and just because it was signed doesn’t mean they haven’t changed their minds on it.

  • mt

    I am at an 8 up from 7. I am getting more comfortable with CC re-signing for a guaranteed 5 years (vesting for 6 nand 7 OK) or letting him walk. Texas loses Lee and St Louis loses Wainwright yet both make World Series – if you have other players come through things can work out when you lsoe your ace.

    Basically I have decided that all this offseason about what Yanks must do is entertaining but taking a long view of the Yankee goal and the team – if we get to playoffs next year and Arod/Tex/Swisher still disappear offensively, it won’t matter what pitching we have. Maybe Montero is wild card on offensive upside so we don’t have to rely on those 3 so much.

    • Ted Nelson

      A-Rod has a post-season OPS of .884… if you call that “disappearing” I don’t know what to tell you. Instead of buying the narrative, why not take the time to research the actual data and gain an understanding of sample sizes as they apply to statistics?

      • Hardy

        Well, I have researched your so called “actual data” and it is pretty damning. In really important playoff series (RIPS) A-Rod sucks.

        You can look it up on baseball-reference.com when you look under the RIPS tab:
        1995 ALDS (.000/.000/.000), 1995 ALCS (.000/.000/.000), 2004 ALCS (post-steal), 2005 ALDS, 2006 ALDS (.071./.131./.071, mostly against known playoff-choker Kenny Rogers), 2010 ALCS, 2011 ALDS excluding last at-bat, 2011 ALDS last at-bat (.000/.000/.000).

        • Ted Nelson

          You realize that A-Rod was 19 years old in 1995, right?

          Since coming to the Yankees his OPS has been .895 or above in 5 of 11 series. .820 or above in 6 of 11.

          The ALCS and WS aren’t important series?

          • Hardy

            You realize that nothing (and I mean absolutely nothing – no WS, no ALCS) is as important as this: 2011 ALDS last at-bat (.000/.000/.000)

            (And please check for the RIPS tab on baseball-reference.com before I have to apply a sarcasm tag.)

        • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

          You know in that 1995 ALDS and ALCS he had ONE at bat in each series, right?

        • MidlandTX

          A worthy effort–that is some damn fine cherry-pickin’ right there. But you have to be consistent in your tone. Otherwise you just confuse people; the subtleties fly right over their heads.

  • CS Yankee

    A 9, as the system is incredible. Yes SP has been the concern for a few years now but it seems the farm is growing some good pitchers.

    1) Throw another year & 25M$ to CC and give him another opt-out in two years.
    2) Resign Swish & unless you can get a decent SP (like a Gio) trade done, he’ll be better than any other FA choice this year (1-yr vs. multiple).
    3) Re-up the Bart and/or Freddy show for another year or buy Yu?

    Pretty damn good thing when you have only a couple of needs to resolve.

  • http://www.twitter.com/matt__harris Matt :: Sec110

    Was going to be a 6, but knowing Granderson and Cano are going to Taiwan, I bumped it up to 7.

  • Rich in NJ

    To me, the offseason turns on keeping CC (likely, imo) and Montero (I would like to be optimistic, but who really knows?).

    Everything else will take care of itself.

  • Hardy

    9. There is enough money (at least $55M) to solve all need for 2012. The farm system is in very good shape and should be able to take care of most problems for 2012-.

    • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

      This.

  • JohnC

    Lets hope the WS is a sweep so we can get on with the Offseason as quickly as possible

  • Kevin

    a 6. I’m sorry but watching the teams that are going to the World Series…that trophy was ours.
    Add that to the fact Texas was able to hit the pitchers we couldn’t and make them look bad…ugh just ugh.

    • CP

      Add that to the fact Texas was able to hit the pitchers we couldn’t and make them look bad…ugh just ugh.

      If you take away Nelson Cruz in the 11th inning, the Yankees actually hit better against the Tigers than the Rangers did.

      And the Yankees pitchers were better against the Tigers than the Rangers.

      • JFH

        Except for the fact that Nelson Cruz did bat in the 11th inning.

        If you take away the three losses to the Tigers, we won that series, 2 – 0.

        • Ted Nelson

          The point is that the Yankees lost by a small margin and one or two things go differently the results of both series could be reversed.

        • Kevin

          we may have hit better against the Tigers but we didn’t get the clutch hits when we needed them.
          The fact Texas is going to the World Series more on their offense and their bullpen angers me.
          Our bullpen is far superior to anything Texas could have thrown at us, same with the Cardinals.

          • JohnnyC

            Not with Luis Ayala pitching important innings.

          • CP

            we may have hit better against the Tigers but we didn’t get the clutch hits when we needed them.

            That’s the problem with a short series. The Yankees played better than Detroit, but got unlucky.

            • Kevin

              Indeed…it’s why I hate the five game format.

  • FachoinaNYY

    8 – we have a lot of issues but looking around the league we don’t have any more problems than anyone else.

    Re-sign CC and go from there.

    Keep MONTERO!

  • FachoinaNYY

    Sidenote:

    Really hope the Yankees are in on Mark Buehrle, hopefully at like a 2/25 deal.

    Anyone have thoughts?

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      Buerle is going to sign with the red Sox as a part time 5th starter/lefty bullpen option.

      /Carfado’d

    • http://yankeeanalysts.com Matt Imbrogno

      I try really hard to like him because he’s got great control and is fantastically durable, but I just don’t think he’d work in the ALE, especially with a K/9 UNDER five (!!) the last three years.

      • what the uck

        why not Chien-Ming Wang didn’t strike a lot hitters but if you could have him healthy you would want him right…?Buerhle could work…maybe.

  • Dave B

    8 – the best two teams on paper (Yanks and Phils) are out in the first round. Do I think this is reflective of inherently flawed teams? No way. Nor do I think the 5 game playoff is inherently flawed (although I wish it were 7 games). The Yankees just did not have a Delmon Young or Freese or Nelson Cruz coming up big in big moments. I think Girardi could have tried to manipulate the roster to minimize the impact of cold 4-5-6 hitters, but do I think he is a reason to be nervous of the future? No way – he and his staff were masterful for 6 months.

    Anything lower than a 7 doesn’t make sense in my opinion.

  • Gonzo

    Didn’t someone refute the “Rangers, boatload of money, CC” story? On my phone and can’t find it right now.

    • JohnnyC

      Jon Daniels denied it. Of course, he could be lying.

      • CP

        He has to deny it. If he confirms the rumor, then it’s tampering.

    • Slugger27

      i never understood why it was a “story”

      oh wow, a deep-pocketed team expecting to contend is interested in sabathia….

      yawn.

      • Hardy

        Yeah, and couple that with juicy details like “a boatload of money” that could translate to anything from 4/97 to 7/200.

  • David, Jr.

    Still at a nine here. Who would you want to trade rosters with?

    • Doug

      rosters including the farm? gimme the rays please

      • Slugger27

        ::looks at each teams 40man::

        no, i wouldnt make that trade

        • JobaWockeeZ

          *Looks at payroll*

          Yeah obviously.

      • Ted Nelson

        Yankees have a pretty stacked farm system themselves…

    • Hardy

      Tampa. Trade the rosters and have $150M to spend? That would be pretty cool. (And the Yankees could probably get most of their sentimental old players (Rivera, Jeter) back as a salary dump).

      • Ted Nelson

        I don’t think the question related to payroll. Simply to 40 players that you have to go to battle with.

      • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

        Trading the rosters, but not the payroll realities: preeeeeeeety convenient. ;)

        • Hardy

          Nice, huh. They should continue by trading their draft position with the Astros.

          • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

            I’d like to trade rosters with the 1998 Yankees, and keep them at their 1998 age.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      …They beter have the best roster when you’re spending 200 million.

  • jon

    i just hope the yankees dont sign CJ wilson

    not that i think hes a bad pitcher

    i just dont want the yankees have to celebrate playoff series wins with ginerale cause he doesnt drink

    • Ted Nelson

      I’m sure he’s not the only guy in MLB who doesn’t drink. What’s wrong with choosing not to drink? Abe Lincoln didn’t drink. Nor did Ghandi. Nor does Warren Buffet.

    • Hardy

      The Yankees could also trade for John Lackey and Josh Beckett who reportedly like to drink in the clubhouse to compensate for Wilson.

    • Betty Lizard

      Champagne? Ginger Ale?
      No difference.
      Both spew equally well.
      All is emptiness, Grasshopper.

  • Johnny O

    I’m actually MORE optimistic since the Yankees have been knocked out. Cards and Rangers have more than proven that sh*tty rotations can win the in playoffs.

    Let’s be honest, back in 2006 when the Cards won they had Jeff freaking Weaver starting. Says it all for me.

  • FIPster Doofus

    Eight. It’ll be a nine once Carsten Charles is locked in and Yu Darvish is on board.

  • Doc Holliday

    If CC plays hardball you say to him, we’re signing CJ and Darvish and you can walk for all we care. Let him walk if he tries to get 7 more years and won’t commit to losing weight. Sign CJ and Darvish and get 2 for the price of 1. Then go with a rotation of CJ, Darvish, Nova, AJ, Hughes.

    • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

      Yes, absolutely. Go with an inflated-value free agent and a Japanese import who’s never pitched an inning in the US before just keeping one of the best, most durable, pitchers on the planet. Makes perfect sense.

  • Kevin

    I enjoyed the 2009 World Series for two reasons. One the Yanks ended up winning but two…for the first time in a long time, it felt like the two best teams were in it.

    • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher (formerly Jorge)

      Sometimes it’s a battle of attrition, though, and it’s not that dissimilar in other sports. It’s not the best team. It’s the last team standing.

  • Monteroisdinero

    With Chavez and Jorge gone, I hope the Yanks don’t spend big money on some aging, lefty power bat that will take abs from Montero (see binder).

    9 for me

  • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

    I’m at an 8. I can’t wait to see the confidence level if Darvish or Wilson don’t sign with the Yankees…