Feb
13
Fan Confidence Poll: February 13th, 2012
By2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS
Top stories from last week:
- The Yankees are still trying to trade A.J. Burnett to free up some money. Four teams have interest, but they reportedly have a framework in place with the Pirates. They’re said to be willing to eat $10M of the $33M left on his deal but will not include Garrett Jones in a trade. The Yankees are pushing for a 50-50 split.
- Although they are reportedly in serious talks with Raul Ibanez about their DH job, the Yankees signed Russell Branyan to a minor league contract. Utility man Bill Hall was also signed to a minor league pact.
- Joba Chamberlain‘s rehab from Tommy John surgery continued as some other pitchers started throwing in Tampa. Manny Banuelos headlines the list of Spring Training invitees.
- Banuelos, Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez, and Dellin Betances all cracked Keith Law’s top 100 prospects list. The Yankees placed tenth in his organizational rankings.
- Yankee Stadium will host a second Roger Waters concert, a Madonna concert, and potential a soccer match this year. Stadium parking prices could spike in the future.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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I voted a 9 because I am dizzy with excitement over the possible AJ move. Even if it doesn’t actually happen, I will always remember the time I got overly giddy at the prospect of AJ not being a Yankee ever again.
9.
I love the idea of CC and Pineda leading the rotation for years to come. Nova is rock solid, Hughes should have a bounceback year and we have an exciting almost ready prospect in Banuelos. Crafty veterans Garcia and Kuroda on 1 year deals. Stacked bullpen. All Star offense. Smart management (serial stalkers can’t even slow Cashman down). Things are looking good.
And I shouldn’t forgot very solid defense as well. I don’t see any weakness here really, and we have depth at every position too.
What are the vegas odds on a Yanks championship again this year?
The odds have to be pretty favorable.
VegasInsider.com has the following odds. Yankees are ranked No. 2 after the Phillies:
Future Book Odds
MLB Future Odds · Live Odds · Mobile Odds
Odds to Win 2012 World Series
Team Odds
Philadelphia Phillies 9/2
New York Yankees 6/1
Los Angeles Angels 8/1
Boston Red Sox 8/1
Texas Rangers 8/1
Detroit Tigers 10/1
San Francisco Giants 15/1
Tampa Bay Rays 15/1
Atlanta Braves 15/1
6/1 sounds good to me.
I like Detroit at 10-1 and Tampa at 15-1 all day long.
Tampa Bay is definitely a good bet. They don’t get any respect.
Wow, Phillies still number one? They’re still a good team, but I think they have some big problems. When you think about it, they’re basically the Rays with a better bullpen until Howard comes back. And he’s overrated anyway.
They have Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. That’s a 90s Braves-esque top 3.
Yea, I have no problem with the Pillies as favorites with that top three. I personally think the Yanks are better, but that might just be fan bias.
I would take the Yankees, too.
Aren’t betting odds based partially on how people bet, not solely on the likelihood of outcomes?
Yea, teams usually get a “bettor bias” that may get factored into the spread. For example, Cowboys spreads are usually a point different from where it should be because everyone loves to bet on the Cowboys for some reason even when they are consistently mediocre.
You have to also take account the vig for future bets. The total odds of the board are going to favor vegas, so the actual odds would also be different in that regard too for future bets.
Those guys have a long way to go before I consider them Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz. Then again, those same Braves won ONE World Series during that whole time, which is what the Phillies have with their Big 3.
Halladay wasn’t on the WS winning team.
Rating all 6 pitchers in their primes, I would go:
Maddux, Halladay, Glavine, Lee, Hamels*, Smoltz
*Obviously he’s young, but I’m assuming his career follows a normal arc.
It’s a tossup to me. I’d probably take the Braves rotation. Anyway, I wasn’t making a 1:1 comparison in my post. I was just saying they have a sick starting rotation and that is the reason they are favorites to win the WS.
Probably has to do with them having a much clearer path to the WS than any of the AL teams….you have to get there to win it and the Phillies don’t have 5 other really teams in their wsy
Good point.
Yeah, I agree with that. Phillies probably have the best odds of making the playoffs of any team, and once they’re there the NL comp is pretty weak.
I would say that Detroit has the best chance of making the playoffs. Maybe not winning in the playoffs, but getting there.
I don’t know about that. The Indians look pretty formidable especially with their ace Faust…nevermind.
Pretty close I guess. Detroit has a better shot at their division, but if the playoff expansion is postponed till 2013 I think the Phillies have got to have like 95% chance of getting at least the NL wild card.
I think some regression is likely from Fister, Peralta (1 win, 1 win, 5 wins…), Valverde, and Avila, combined with truly terrible defense from Cabrera if they keep him at 3B.
Angels @ 8/1? Ridiculous.
I am a 9 as well for all the reasons you have listed. I am excited about 2012.
9. If some of the position players in the lower levels have good years again and inch closer to the big leagues then I may go 10.
I voted 8. It could have been bumped up 1 for each a Springsteen Concert annoucement and Burnett trade.
8 – Nothing has changed. We’ll see what the potential AJ deal brings. I am so ready for the season to start.
A Pirates blogger’s take on the pending trade. (Good read)
http://www.piratesprospects.co.....-deal.html
Basically deciphering what Rosenthal meant by prospect value in terms of money picked up by the yankees.
At most the Yankees could receive 2 grade C pitching prospects or two C hitting prospects.
For those who are completely unfamiliar with the pirates farm system this would be a good place to start —> http://mobile.minorleagueball......s-for-2012
All that first link is, is a rundown of the trade rumors over the weekend
“UPDATE 1:00 PM: I mentioned earlier this week that the trade value for Burnett, with no money picked up, would be negative $17.6 M. To give an idea of his value with Rosenthal’s figures, the Pirates would have to give up $1.4 M in prospect value if the Yankees picked up $19 M. They’d have to give up $5.4 M in prospect value if the Yankees picked up $23 M. If it’s two prospects, then the Pirates are looking at two young Grade C hitting prospects at $19 M, and two young Grade C pitching prospects at $23 M.”
I voted 7.
They lose a point for their stated goal of slashing payroll. I might go up to an 8 if they drop the Scrooge McDuck plan.
Jeter and Arod…blah blah blah…historical data indicates steep declines in late 30s…blah blah blah…long term unmovable contracts…blah blah blah.
Surprised you’re so low on them. With 30 teams, a “10″ would be one of the top 3. So, my evaluation of your ranking is that you consider them only in the top 12 organization?
I’m pretty confident for the upcoming season, and bullish on the pitching going forward a few years. I’m less confident in the offense and defense after this season (aging Jeter and ARod with no identified replacements beyond Nunez), but that still puts me at a 9 (a top 6 organization). I think the Yankees will contend for the foreseeable future.
I wouldn’t say the second and third best teams are a 10. I wouldn’t even say the top team is necessarily a 10. I think of a 10 as a team that is truly flawless with no reason to see trouble in the foreseeable future. The 1998 Yankees were a 10. The 2012 Yankees aren’t – at least, as it stands now.
I’m not down on the Yankees, I guess I just have a tougher grading scale.
I see your point, but can’t quite get on board with your grading. I look at it more in relative terms. The best team (or teams) get a 10, even if they are flawed. They are less flawed than their competition, so they deserve the hightest score. Move down from there. I can see not having an even scale (3 teams per point of the scale), but I still think the least-flawed team should come out on top and be a 10. Guess we all have different ways of looking at this. Keeps it interesting to see others’ points of view.
Agree on the relative scale.
Yeah I’m with you here, if I’m in a room full of fat chicks no one’s cracking a two, the “best” looking one is still hideous. There are situations where no one’s a ten. Every team in the majors has some pretty big flaws and is pretty much a key injury away from being knocked out of contention. Because of that, there are no teams that I’d consider a “ten.” The Yankees’ issues are pretty much the risk of aging players like Jeter/Rodriguez, and risky young pitchers like Nova and Pineda (who aren’t established commodities), and of course Hughes. There’s also Teixeira needing a bounce back, and CC probably won’t have a year as good as 2011. Not that he won’t still be awesome.
The idea of being in a room full of fat chicks is terrifying. I hear it accounts for 15% of Swedish deaths. Fact.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....24560.html
I don’t see much merit to your tasteful room full of “2s” analogy. There’s a pretty wide spectrum of talent on different teams. It’s not a room full of one grade.
Also … Over 100 votes and no one voted a 4 or lower ?
Yankees fans seem to be smoking the objective pipe this morning
Always gotta have someone … At 250 votes, 3 voted a “3″ and 1 voted a “1″. These people must just be doing this for the heck of it. Would love to have someone rationally explain a score that low.
I’m actually excited about the Russell Branyan signing (never would have imagined myself saying that.) Hopefully he performs in ST and wins the DH gig. I voted 7 though based on some concerns I have about the offense over the next couple of years.
Voted 8.
I’m really looking forward to a conclusion of the AJ Burnett saga in pinstripes. The rotation might take a step back in the eyes of MSM as AJ’s departure opens the path for Hughes to get another go at starting. Since we’re essentially talking about the last rotation spot, the Yanks have the opportunity to settle the “can-Hughes-cut-it-as-starter”.
I have a feeling the answer to that last question is “no.”
I have been at 9 since the Pineda trade. Even if the trade of AJ falls through I will be at 9. The Yankees have solidified the rotation. Now, if we can get a lefty DH who can play some positions in case of injuries. I will be very happy.
Over the years I have had a terrible dislike for some of the trades of our younger guys for the over the hill I got a name gang. Some were Ok and some were bad. But the trade of AJ to open the door for our younger prospects is priceless. AJ, Kuroda and Freddie are not here in 2013 that leaves us CC, Pineda, Nova and Hughes. Nice and young pitchers are filling the top 4 spots. 2012 will be the opportunity for Banuellos to get more AAA time with the group of Phelps etc. called up upon injury or ineffectiveness of any stater or reliever.
As I said above injuries looks to me as the one variable to knock down the Yankees. Guys like Jeter, Arod need to be rested and removed from games which are played in bad weather. Treat them like fine china until the playoffs it may bring us number 28.
Still at a 9, but would be that much closer to a 10 if/when Burnett is traded. Boy, I can’t wait for this season to start already. Got a great feeling about this team.
I voted 7. I think the pitching rotation is great, but something about this offense just screams “2008″ to me. Everyone is expecting this to be a High Voltage offense but I just don’t see it. Can Granderson do what he did last year? Can Jeter? Heck, can A-Rod even get to 20 hrs? The DH spot may be an automatic out all year.
1 now that Ortiz has signed. The yanks have no chance now.
Daniel Bard will win 20 games this year….book it.
Athletics just signed cespedes i hope the yanks still plan on going hard after Soler I’m at a 9 again – overall we are in great shape and I can’t wait to see Pineda
Shocking. A’s 4/36?
with all the off season moves this makes absolutly no sense to me. much like when the indians decided to pay Kerry Wood $10MM to close. Commit 1/3 of your payroll to a player that is a risk…
i really hate ortiz more and more each year. such a phony baloney.
4/36.
Not quite the 60MM people were saying.
The 60MM Cespedes and his people were saying…
I thought Peter Gammons was on the Red Sox.
Truly do not understand Billy Beane’s line of thinking with the Cespedes Signing. Why get rid of your whole pitching staff and then spend that money on a lottery ticket ?
I don’t know what Billy Beane is thinking… but here are my thoughts on it…
He’s still looking for market inefficiencies. His pitchers have shiny overall numbers despite ugly home/road splits because their ballpark is death to offense. So he turned around and dumped them for a bunch of prospects, a lot of whom are MLB ready. He might not take a huge step down from Gio and Cahill to Parker and Peacock… and in the process he picked up some other top prospects like Cole and Norris along with some filler like Cowgill.
Talent that hasn’t played in MLB is likewise a market inefficiency. Granted, it’s often inefficient in that the player gets too much money… but at no other time is Oakland going to have access to an in-his-prime talent like Yoenis at $9 mill per. That’s the kind of money a Chone Figgins or Josh Willingham gets if he’s got an MLB track record.
He’s a lottery ticket to us fans who don’t follow Cuban baseball, but perhaps Beane has been scouting the guy for years and feels really confident.
I don’t know nearly enough about Yoenis to say he’s worth the money, but by the same token I can’t say he’s not. That he hasn’t played in MLB doesn’t prove he’s not. If he can be a 2 WAR player or so he might not be a bad value, and if he can be a 3+ WAR player he might be a very good to amazing value.
On the basis of one of my two Private Mottos–that “The worst is always possible”–I stay with my 5 ranking for the same reasons as before: those aged HoF-ers like Jeter and ARod for whom replacement-level superstars (historically key to classical Yankee success)are not yet on the horizon. I don’t count a HoF-er like Cano because he’s been with the team too long.
Worse: Recently, and recalling CC’s troubles late in the season, I’ve found a new reason for worry. It could be those troubles were the result of promiscuous eating of Cap’n Crunch. It has also occurred to me that they could be the result of promiscuous eating of innings. The question will probably be answered pretty quickly, but I hope the Yankees begin to show caution about his workload.
Anything is possible, but it’s a matter of probability. I don’t see why you would weight marginal probabilities so heavily rather than voting based on the most likely outcome.
Well, for one thing, it’s impossible to give a probability weight to all aspects of life–that way madness lies.
Secondly, it’s very difficult to determine what is a “marginal” probability, especially if one doesn’t want to beg questions by assuming what has still to be proved (the omni-utility of statistical reason).
For example, to me, as I look back over the decades–and with the possible exception of the late 1990s–the Yankees historically dominate the league insofar as they have multiple hall of fame type players. The 1965 collapse offers an example of what happens when these all hit the age wall before replacements arrive.
Moreover, Fate matters a great deal in baseball as in life: injury for example (overwork, strained forearm warnings, etc.). When Fate intervenes it’s with an all-bets-are-off sneer on her face. (Fate always smells age.)
Also, temperament as conditioned (to some extent) by one’s historical experience. E.g., I come from an era that distrusted excessive attention to rationality (e.g., reliance on statistics, reliance on economists and most forms of expertise). The rollings of the dice may lie below the level of Reason, but the reliance on laws of probability is hyper-rationality itself. Right now, we’re in a hyper-rationalist period. This will pass. I won’t see it. But, depending on your age, you might. (Keep all options open so you don’t have to retool too dramatically.)
Finally, another reason for my #5: we don’t know enough yet about these Steinbrenner “boys” to determine whether they are chips off the old block (“Victory or Death” as secret motto of the Georgian Yankees) or chips off CBS.
What do you define as a 5? To me that means league average.
I’m not asking you to weigh the probabilities off all aspects of life. Simply of the Yankees’ season. There aren’t that many factors.
It’s not that hard to figure out that all of the Yankees players simultaneously having injuries or career-worst years has a marginal probability. Their team plane could crash… but it’s very easy to figure out the odds of that.
“The 1965 collapse offers an example of what happens when these all hit the age wall before replacements arrive.”
Except that the Yankees’ best players are not hitting an age wall. Cano, Granderson, Gardner, and CC are their best players… possible Martin depending on how C defense is weighted… none of those guys are old. A-Rod is their 4th best position player the past two seasons. Jeter their 7th. Tex is not old and neither are Pineda, Nova, and Hughes. Kuroda is old… but they’ve got a lot of pitching depth so replacement have arrived. Mo is old… but again there are several replacements already here.
“Moreover, Fate matters a great deal in baseball as in life: injury for example”
And the probability of injury can be quantified.
“I come from an era that distrusted excessive attention to rationality (e.g., reliance on statistics, reliance on economists and most forms of expertise).”
I don’t think there’s been an era of human history where expertise was not valued. I think that’s a you thing. What “era” are you referring to?
“Finally, another reason for my #5: we don’t know enough yet about these Steinbrenner “boys” to determine whether they are chips off the old block (“Victory or Death” as secret motto of the Georgian Yankees) or chips off CBS.”
George stepped down in 2006 and subsequently had Alzheimer’s.
Look, what the fuck difference is it to you that I rank my confidence in this team at 5? It’s a POLL, you dumb twit! In short, you’re free to do as you wish. People often give reasons. So I gave some of mine. You’e piping up as if somehow you’re OFFENDED by them. Who gives a shit if you are? I certainly don’t.
As for distrusting expertise–I gather you must think you have it: they always do–try reading a bit beyond your stat textbook. There’s a world of wisdom out there (not to mention manners) that you’re badly in need of.
Look at your final two paragraphs. Think more about them. Post less. Learn about non sequiturs.
People are free to do what they please, yet I am a dumb twit for doing as I please and responding to your comment? Interesting.
What’s your problem and what on earth are you ranting about?
My original comment was made to discuss the issue and see what your logic was. Appear you are using none. If the Yankees are a 5… what are other teams?
You’re right, Ted.
You had been clearly and conclusively identified as a “dumb twit” waaay before you responded to his comment.
Are you really this obsessed with me?