Rays sending James Shields to Royals for Wil Myers
By11:30pm: It’s Shields, Davis, and either a player to be named later or cash for Myers, right-hander Jake Odorizzi, left-hander Mike Montgomery, and infielder Pat Leonard. That one has “Royals GM Dayton Moore is trying to save his job” written all over it.
11:09pm: The exact details are still trickling in, but the Rays and Royals have agreed to a trade that will send both James Shields and Wade Davis to the Kansas City for top prospects Wil Myers and others. Shields will be next to impossible to replace as a proven above-average AL East workhorse, but if anyone can do it, it’s Tampa Bay. Myers is one of the five best prospects in baseball and gives them a big bat to pair with Evan Longoria for the next six years. The 2013 Rays likely got worse, but the 2014+ versions got a lot better.
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What a robbery by Tampa. Dayton Moore is an idiot.
I disagree.
Seems like a lot to give up for Myers. Have to see what the other pieces are though.
Jake Odorizzi is in the deal too. Highway robbery
LHP Montgomery is apparently in the deal too… I know he had an injury a few years back and his value is down, but why would they throw him in the deal too?
What the hell is Dayton Moore doing?
Yeah, this seems way lopsided in the Rays favor.
2 years of Shields and a reliever for one of the top, if not the top, hitting prospect in the minor leagues? Short of the Rays using Shields in a package for Justin Upton, this seems like the best possible outcome – a young cost controlled impact bat for a pitcher who was getting expensive for themand had only 2 years of control.
Cashman should be talking to Moore once a day and just let Moore make random offers.
Agreed. Lets see this kid actually do something in the MLB first before annointing Tampa the winners here. The Royals just got themselves a hell of a pitcher.
Agreed. Lets see this kid actually do something in the MLB first before annointing Tampa the winners here. The Royals just got themselves a hell of a pitcher.
That’s not the point; they just traded 18 years of good prospect years for 2 years of a good pitcher. Even if Shields provides 4 WAR more than the other crap KC puts int he rotation, they aren’t making the playoffs.
I agree that the deal favors Tampa heavily, but I think it’s an oversimplification to say it’s 18 years for 2 years. If one of those prospects flames out, it could end up being way less than 18 years. Still, it’s just amazing how shrewd Tampa’s front office seems to be.
“Prospect Years” are like dog years, yes? Sure, they’re a measure, but they mean nothing to us humans in a time scale. The Royals got one great pitcher in Shields and one really good one in Davis for a bunch of prospects who have not sniffed ML competition yet. Albeit, really good prospects, but prospects all the same.
I was just saying the same thing. TB got worse for 2013 but better down the road
If Meyers works out. For my own selfish reasons I hope he bombs.
If Meyers works out. For my own selfish reasons I hope he bombs.
Damnit, sorry for the double posts tonight everybody…I have no idea how or why it’s happening.
Damnit, sorry for the double posts tonight everybody…I have no idea how or why it’s happening.
OMG stop it….
OMG stop it….
whoa
They still have Price, Moore, Niemann, Hellickson and Cobb in the rotation so they were trading from strength.
I’m not sure if Myers will be ready to step in next season and be a major contributor but I still think the Rays are gonna be a team to reckon with next season even without Shields.
dayton moore strikes again
Well, it looks like Tampa is back to being the best team in the AL East again.
What are you talking about….? They got worse in 2013, better down the road.
Tampa lacked offense, now they have a big young bat and two arms.
We’ll see. Lets see these guys take a shit in the majors first.
I think this was a great move for the Rays, but Myers’ MLB production is unknown. He could be a total beast from day 1, he could take a year or two, he could never develop… It’s unknown if they got better or worse. I would put my money on worse for 2013. Not a ton of rookies top 4.3 fWAR.
Look at the last 10 Minor league players of the year (which Myers was last year)
Trout, Hellickson, Heyward, Wieters, Jay Bruce, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Jeff Francis, Mauer
The two pitchers aren’t exactly studs, and Delmon Young is Delmon Young but most of the position players who win this award go on to do very well. While all prospects are risks to some extent, I think Myers is in a bit of a different (and much lower) risk class and to just put the generic “unknown” label on him is a bit disingenuous.
The other problem with your analysis is TB isn’t plugging a 0 WAR starter in for Shields… Myers doesn’t need to post 4.3fWAR for the Rays to be better (he just needs to provide as much of an upgrade in the OF next year than the downgrade at starter)
So we’re going to correlate winning an award with future success. Wonderful.
But at least he reasons it well. He’s basing it on historical data and while “past performacne doesn’t guarantee future results”, he has a somewhat valid point. That said, we do need to wait and see.
I already said that I agree Myers is a top prospect. Guys like Alex Gordon, Jay Bruce, and Weiters didn’t burst onto the scene lighting the world on fire. We’re still waiting for Young.
It’s also an arbitrary award. Even if you take it as accurate, Myers 2012 might be the 7th best MiLB season in 2013.
They also didn’t have to plug a 0 fWAR OF in for Myers (assuming Myers even starts for them in 2013).
Like I said, my money is on the Rays being worse in 2013 for making this trade. If you want to put up money that Myers is the next Mike Trout, good for you!
Stop with the ridiculous strawman – it is a weak way to argue. If you want to make Myers the next Delmon Young, goood for you! Hey look this is fun!
I didn’t say Myers was the next Trout, you know that and yet you resort to hyperbole because someone dare disagree with you and call you out for your bad analysis that Myers would have to post 4.3 WAR for this to net to zero impact in 2013
A) The pitching downgrade is not 4.3 WAR (it seems you won’t even try arguing this)
B) The Rays OF options are pretty minimal, especially if they can play Zobrist more at 2nd base (and not play someone like Seasn Rodriguez)
C) They clear 8.5mil and can use this to upgrade elsewhere (like say DH?)
Myers won’t start out of the gate (they’ll hold his arb clock back), but he also doesn’t need to be Trout or even post 4.3 WAR.
But keep putting words in my mouth – it really is a rather constructive to argue. If you want to put up money that Myers is the next Delmon Young, good for you.
Don’t you realize that all top rookie prospects are Mike Trout???
Royals making moves like they are a contender…really dumb
Well, with the second Wild Card, increased revenue and a weak division, why shouldn’t the Royals go hard in 2013?
I dont know how much we can over look the Yankees re-signing the Thursday Night Bingo Captains, but so far the Jays have gotten a whole lot better.. The Rays are improving their team by getting younger and dealing from an area of strength, and the Sox have signed Victorino, Uehara, Napoli, and Gomes… *sigh*
The only move the Red Sox made this season that I’m jealous of is Uehara. I would’ve loved to have him, as for Victorino, Napoli, and Gomes…all of those contracts are extremely flawed.
Agree 100%
I loved the Victorino signing as a Yankees fan but Uehara on a 1 year deal would have been a nice addition to our pen.
I like Victorino, he has decent power, can hit and run and plays a decent enough defense… I also think Napoli was a good move because now the Sox can package a deal involving Salty or even Lavarnway and can net them some pitching while still having Napoli back there or 1B.. I think Napoli was a good sign. Maybe a bit too much money, but I like him and Victorino.. I’ve never been a Gomes fan, but he could be a surprise player in that park
I feel like they paid a little to much for both. Also, Victorino had a terrible second half, I’m not saying he’s going to that bad going forward but I think that he’s more likely to be worse than he has been and begin a downward trend. As for Napoli, he would’ve made no sense for the Yankees, even the Sox have already said they look at him as a 1B/once-a-week Catcher. We have a great 1st baseman already. Gomes, I would’ve given a one year deal…but only out of desperation come mid-January.
Apparently the Royals also included Jake Odorizzi? Desperate much?
If the Yankees were run as well as the Rays, a little austerity would be no problem. Hal and Levine should take note.
Wasn’t “The Rays with money” the goal? Seems like, with the talent in the lower levels, that they’ve got a hell of a shot of becoming a much more rounded franchise with every year that passes.
When/if that happens, I will readily acknowledge the great job that Cashman has done, and admit I was wrong about him. But he set that goal in 2006, and to date, there are no impact position players or starting pitchers that have come from the system that are on the 25 man roster. I have no choice but to wait, but I think it’s reasonable to have expected a greater ROI by now.
Granderson, Gardner, Hughes, Nova, DRob, Joba… If you were expecting much more than that with no high 1sts, your expectations were probably too high.
Granderson and Gardner are impact players by just about any measure.
Hughes and Nova have both out fWAR’d the great Jeremy Hellickson over the past two years.
I had no expectations. My hope was that they would have kept AJack, Montero, and Melky. If they had, I would feel a lot better about the 2006 plan.
Melky sucked until he started using PEDs, AJack got us Granderson, and the Montero trade was very good process that was fouled up by bad luck.
What evidence is there that PEDs can enable a hitter to hit .300?
Do you not remember the steroid era? Do you have no idea what testosterone is?
Rhetoric is not a substitute for evidence. I am waiting to be shown evidence that any PED has been demonstrated to enable a hitter to increase his AVG.
Not sure how it could be proven, but it would seem PED’s could potentially help bat speed, which would result in hitting the ball harder, which would likely increase the number of hits. I could see where it could make a true talent .280-ish hitter into a .300 hitter. Confidence and not tiring as much during the season could also play in. PED’s aren’t likely to make a hitter track a pitch or barrel the ball better, but it could certainly help in other ways.
Melky’s career mL slashline:
.333/.409/.368/.778
Bill Massey, his AA manager predicted in around 2005 that he would hit a batting title one day.
There is no evidence that he was on PED in the mL.
Melky could always put the bat on the ball at a very good rate.
So your argument is that it’s impossible to prove it, so let’s ignore it. Great. Again, look up what testosterone is.
Who gives a crap about isolating BA?
Not disputing that. I have no idea how much of his performance was PED’s and how much was him developing as a player. But given the stark difference between his pre-2011 numbers and numbers since, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if PED’s factored in.
Also, not sure where you got your numbers. According to this:
http://www.baseball-reference......brer001mel
Melky’s career minor league line is 296/349/420. The line you gave was from 15 games in AAA in 2008.
To the contrary, my argument is that proof is what must underlie the rationale behind any argument.
Yours seems to be: I can’t prove it, but you know…
So you acknowledge that Melky has shown the ability to hit for AVG, PEDs notwithstanding, but AVG doesn’t matter to you, so who cares?
NP&H
You’re right on the slashline (too much multi-tasking, sorry), but it’s still quite good.
PEDs may have added SLG (we’ll see), but given the composition of their OF, they could use Melky right now.
I would have taken a chance on him for this year.
But with $189 looming, I wouldn’t have risked committing 8M for him next year.
Dude, rhetoric is half your shtick.
The whole idea behind “Rays with money” was to both be able to build from within, keep those players, and augment with paying players from the outside when necessary. We know where the challenges have been. We know where they’re getting better. I saw this about once a day on here.
I believe YanksFaninBeantown already said it best as to those three prospects. I wish they’d kept Montero as well. Shit happens.
You would have to do Nazi style human testing to gain strong evidence. So, again, your argument is that it cannot be proven so let’s ignore it.
Increases strength so the bat doesn’t get knocked out of his hand, and he hits the ball harder, explaining the BABIP jump despite no change in his batted ball profile.
The bat knocked out his hand?
It’s a figure of speech.
Meaning that his dribblers become grounders, his grounders become hotshots, his hotshots become doubles etc.
That’s speculation though.
As I said, given the makeup of the roster, he’s an asset that they could use.
It’s considerably later than I realized.
GN
It’s speculation that testosterone makes you stronger? Are you kidding?
^ this
And Hellickson kicked both of their asses in bWAR.
He plays in a great Ps park with a pretty strong D behind him.
Point is that they’ve made an impact. One has been the #2 or #3 for a playoff Yankee team each of the past two seasons.
bWAR takes into account park and team defense.
Why are you counting Granderson?
“If you were expecting much more than that with no high 1sts, your expectations were probably too high.”
it always comes back to the draft position
Uhhh… Because they traded two top prospects for him, maybe? Prospects are for trading as well as promoting.
Yeah, it does. Look historically at top 10 and top 20 picks compared even to 21-30 picks and you’ll see why. You can do this in two seconds on B-R.
Especially if you choose to ignore IFA’s.
?
True they are for trading as well as promoting but Rich mentioned players that came from the farm. Curtis was a trade you can’t count him c’mon now.
Draft position plays a role but c’mon now he’s been building this this since 06 and it’s been a mixed bag to say the least. If those guys you mentioned hit their ceiling it wouldn’t be we draft late what do you expect. It would be hey look how great we are
Whether you want to count Granderson or IPK and AJax… The talent came from the farm. Why would we ignore that?
So perfection is the baseline or what?
Again, look at draft history.
No ones ignoring it but we at least have to be accurate
I am being accurate. He was acquired entirely through players the Yankees drafted and developed. Therefore, he is part of the output from the farm system.
No he’s not an output of the farm system it doesn’t work that way Ted.
1 AL Pennant, 2 AL East titles, and 1 Wild Card berth.
Yeap! The Yankees need to take notes.
Myers, Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and another player. I think the Rays may have just duped the Royals something big.
Mayhaps.
Whatttt? I think Myers and a lesser prospect is plenty for Shields alone when you add in the fact that Shields is on the wrong side of 30 and only under contract for a few more seasons. Wade Davis is under contract at a very affordable rate, but he’s good — not great. If the prospects being rumored is true then the Rays really took advantage of a desperate Royals front office.
That’s what I said.
Royals get two starters (Shields and Davis) and a PTNBL.
Myers and Odorizzi are th eonly real prospects of note.
Montgomery is a prospect. Davis has only been an average starter, something he didn’t do last year. Though he’s still probably better than anyone the Royals have.
Mike Montgomery has been bad in AAA the last two years. Unless he turns it around, I can’t call him a good prospect.
You’re right. He is better than any of the Royals staff.
I have faith that the Rays will be able work with Montgomery and correct his issues. The arm is there. They have as good a track record in this area as any team.
Damn…the Rays are refilling the tank. Adding another impact bat and two cost controlled pitchers.
Oh my god, It’s not enough that Dayton Moore hates his own fans, he has to screw us over too?
Wow.
That is one hell of a baseball trade, the Rays are really putting a lot of stock in Meyers. The Royals were very hesitant to call him up when he was absolutely mashing in AAA even with the awfulness of Francour in RF. Might be something to think about.
He’s only 21 and played just 99 games at AAA. I don’t think there’s any negative in not calling him up.
If I was a Royals fan I would have been watching Trout and Harper screaming WHY NOT US?!?!?!
Did you see his stat line in those 99 games?
304/378/554 with 24 HR 79 RBI
If there were a Yankee high profile prospect hitting that in AAA this year when there was a clearly an inferior player on the roster in the majors, do you understand how ape shit crazy everyone on this site would go?
The Royals were non contenders, might as well see what the kid has, instead of sticking with JEFF freaking Francour.
Maybe, but my point is that it was reasonable that they would want him to have a full season at AAA, especially given his age, and it doesn’t send up any red flags because he wasn’t called up.
But yeah, I certainly wish Yankees had a prospect like that.
Idk what his arbitration clock was either to be honest, they could have kept him down for that reason.
But if I am a Royals fan right now….How do my team trade their two top prospects (not even in my system in all of baseball) to the Rays and don’t get David Price back?????
Agree.
THIS!!!!
I really love this site you would think that people would of learn just a little something after Montero this year and the word PROSPECT. (And yes I know its Montero 1st year and no he didn’t take home the ROY).
And the great Tampa Rays with all those rings PLEASE.
Their average payroll over the last four seasons is 60.45m. What they have achieved given that meager outlay is pretty impressive.
Stuart L. Sternberg net worth is $800 million!!!!!
So please stop the poor act want be impressive spend some $$$$ and win some rings.
What’s David Glass’ net worth? No one knows for sure.
He is worth $800m (or whatever) because he isn’t foolish enough to spend his own money. Like any good businessman, his expenditures don’t exceed his revenues.
Since the TB market is dwarfed by the greater NYC market, it’s a safe assumption that his revenues are dwarfed by the Yankees’s revenues.
So given that reality, the issue is who is getting the most bang for their buck on the field.
The reality is that it’s not close, it’s TB.
If the Yankees were run as smartly, adjusted for revenue, they would not only be better on the field, they would make even more money than they do now.
Oh, please no disrespect to you, but your always talking about how badly the Yankees are run and pointing at some Yankees “Doomsday” because they not running a bunch of 20 years old out there and all they do is keep winning.
When the Sternberg family can take shit ass franchise for 10 million that had no future and make it into 2 billion dollar empire then talk to me about “good businessman”
Actually, that’s false, so you are disrespecting yourself by bringing it up.
I thought the Yankees would be fine in 2012 because their pitching was very goo after they signed Kuroda and didn’t need further upgrades (real or imagined).
I think they will be fine in 2013 because of their pitching as long as they get enough offense.
I am concerned about 2014, and I would like to see the fruition of a plan similar to one that Cashman articulated in 2006. My only question is whether or not he is capable of effectuating it given the evidence to date.
If you think that a TB franchise can be transformed into a $2b franchise, then there isn’t any point in discussing business.
But if you want to laud George for what he was able to accomplish, how can you defend his son(s) for abandoning the model that contributed to much (although not all) of his success?
Ok my apologies then, but Yankees and Cashman seem to have a plan let see how it develops before rushing to judgment.
And no I don’t expect for the Rays to become $2b franchise, but at least develop it into something more. Mr. Sternberg hasn’t even been able to bring a new stadium to his franchise.
I just don’t laud George, but whole Steinbrenner family for what they done with Yankees.
The plan was put in place in 2006. That’s not an insignificant amount of time. Given the terms he set, the current grade isn’t great. But as I said above, there is no choice but to wait longer.
Stadiums really have very little to do with anything except the willingness of the surrounding area to pay taxes/borrow money. It’s a disgrace, imo, that public money is ever used in building stadia, but that’s a topic for another day.
I don’t see how any Steinbrenner not named George deserves any lauding.
I agree that the Rays are very well run from a baseball perspective, but how about some context? If the Yankees could have drafted Price, Longoria, Upton, Young, Niemann all in the top 5… They’d also be getting a ton of bang for their buck.
The Rays are doing a good job on paper, but it’s hard to turn over a roster by promoting prospects. A couple of prospects fail and they might go through a drought. Just for one example, the As also made a lot of good looking paper moves to sell high on Mulder, lock in Chavez, etc., but it didn’t work out all that well for a few years. I see a lot of volatility in projecting the Rays depending on how guys like Myers and Moore work out. They have good depth to weather it, but 90 wins is tough to do.
Thank you.
Shields was drafted in the 16th round.
Moore in the 8th.
Davis in the 3rd.
Hellickson in the 4th.
Jennings in the 10th.
These players were available to the Yankees.
Thousands of players were available to every team. No team is going to bat 1.000 in the draft. The Rays have missed guys the Yankees hit on as well.
Let’s try to be reasonable here. The point is that a disproportionate amount of the Rays production has come from extremely high picks. You can’t ignore that in considering the bang for the buck that they’ve gotten. If you take off Price, Longo, and Upton and they win 10 fewer games a year to finish around .500 I’ll bet you’re not nearly as impressed.
Maybe they can keep doing it going forward, but there’s no guarantee they will.
When have the Yankees had so many non-first round hits that didn’t involved paying overslot (an advantage that has been severely curtailed)?
It’s at least as reasonable to believe that a disproportionate amount of the Yankees’ success comes from their huge payroll advantage.
Cashman is the one who in 2006 declared that they wanted to be able to rely on a mL pipeline for their success. He is the one who declared that Hughes, Joba, and IPK would negate the need to sign other teams high-priced veteran talent. But it didn’t happen, so he had to sign CC, AJ, and Kuroda.
Now that the owners have declared that austerity is upon us, it underscores how important a mL pipeline of top, cost-controlled talent really is.
So let’s see the next crop become what we hope it will.
If not, there’s a problem that can no longer be brushed under the rug.
Agree 100%.
The days of burying their mistakes under a pile of cash have seemingly come to an end unless the decide to scrap the budget.
There was also 28 other teams that passed multiple times, not everything is something the Yankees are doing wrong. It has more to do with Tampa’s phenomenal scouting and developing of young player’s. Also there is some luck involved.
I don’t have a list of Tampa’s signing bonuses awarded, but they’ve often been among the top spenders in the draft. So acting like they don’t spend in the draft or pay overslot is odd. In fact, for someone who wants human PED testing in simulated baseball games to prove testosterone improves athletic performance… ignoring the evidence here is laughable.
Brett Gardner, Tyler Austin, Mark Mongomery, David Robertson… all signed to very reasonable, though overslot deals. The Yankees do a very good job in the mid-to-late rounds, something you’d know if you bothered to check the evidence rather than just blindly criticizing everything they do.
What are you guys talking about… You’re under estimating the Yankees… I guess everyone here forgot the great steal the Yankees got the last time they dealt away a top prospect to some team our in the Pacific Northwest…
People thought the Yankees weren’t making the playoffs last year. They won the division.
I’m not sure it really sure the 2013 Rays are getting a big blow here when you figure they still have Price-Hellickson-Moore in that rotation. I thought James Shields was a beast that always seemed to mess up the Yankees, but those three are still really damn good plus Cobb as a #4.
Hellickson isn’t particularly good.
huh?
His fWAR the last two seasons (2.3) is below both Hughes (2.6) and Nova (4.3). He’s a solid back-end starter. He benefits greatly from perhaps the best Ps park in baseball, and a strong D behind him.
His bWAR the last 2 seasons (6.4) is well above both Hughes (1.3) and Nova (3.4).
Surely he benefited some from his park and defense (both accounted for in bWAR calculations). His peripherals are that of a back end starter, but his results have been much better. It is possible he’s a pitcher that will consistently outpitch his peripherals.
Hellickson last 2 years: 3.10 ERA, 4.60 FIP
Rays total last 2 years: 3.39 ERA, 3.77 FIP
Unless the Rays defense suddenly plays a lot better with Hellickson on the mound, it appears there might be more going on.
Maybe he will outperform his peripherals. I hope he falls on his face, though
*continue to
His bWAR, which accounts for park and team defense, over the last two seasons is 6.5, vs. 1.3 for Hughes and 3.4 for Nova.
If you split the difference between the two, like Tango says to do, it comes out to 4.4, which is significantly better than Hughes’ 1.9 or Nova’s 3.7
I would strongly disagree with that. I know you gave some stats, but Hellickson is good. Very good. I would kill for the Yankees to have him.
Based on what?
Having seen him pitch? A 3.06 ERA over 402.1 innings in the AL East?
I really wonder if this is Dayton Moore thinking (stop laughing, it’s the only word that fits) that he’s only got one last chance to make an impact and that since there is a 2nd Wild Card, he’s got a better chance than he’s had so far.
You could make the argument that the AL is getting weaker. Boston is rebuilding. The Yankees are getting old and, as of now, are probably worse. Oakland, Baltimore and the White Sox figure to regress. Minnesota, Cleveland, Seattle and Houston aren’t contenders. Detroit, Tampa, Texas and the Angels figure to contend, but all have questions of their own. Toronto is the only team that appears to be better than last year.
So I really think this is a classic case of potentially selling the future for that shot at the present because, if it fails, the guy pulling the strings in the present won’t be around for the future and, therefore, it ain’t his problem.
Definitely.
The Royals couldn’t really expect to improve unless they got some starting pitching so I guess Moore decided to cash in some of his chips to make a run
THIS!!!!
I have several friends that live in KC. From what I’m seing online, they’re quite livid.
Glad to see Shields out of the AL East.
If it means that Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Myers join the Rays I’d rather him stay in the East.
Yeah, Montgomery has really been lighting the world on fire…
I really like the deal for Tampa, but these guys are still prospects. Let’s see if they work out.
Shields had two years left with the team (at most), optimistically you’re looking at 10 WAR at 21M. So you have three players, who are highly thought of, that are under team control for 18 years. It’s highly unlikely that they don’t eclipse the value that Shields will provide. If the Yankees made a move half this good you, and everyone else, would need a new pair of draws. You have one player with a super star ceiling, and two pitchers that are probably right around competent. Montgomery’s been fine everywhere except AAA and since he’s only 22 so it’s okay.
Again, Montgomery is not highly thought of anymore. He hasn’t really produced since A-ball. It’s something like saying Betances is still highly thought of.
Did you miss where I said “I really like the deal for Tampa?” I’m not going to act like all prospects pan out, though, just because you want to.
…..who you’ve never seen play in the majors.
Just unbelievable. It’s Monday now. Are minor leaguers supposed to never succeed today, or are they all surefire HOFers? I need to keep track on what the narrative is on any given day of the week.
Rays are going to need some starters now.
They have Hellickson, Price, and Moore. They need a 4 and a 5
They have Alex Cobb, who was the 5th starter last year. So now they need a 5th starter
Niemann, I would think.
They have Chris Archer, who pitched toward the end of last year and looks ready. Right behind him is Taylor Guerrieri. They are not lacking in arms at the ready.
Hellickson is their 4 or 5. Between Cobb, Archer, Niemann, and prospects they’ll manage to fill out their rotation. Will need some young guys to step up to be as good as 2012, but they should have a solid rotation even if it takes a step down.
I really think this is the Royals GM making a run at the playoffs this year. In his head Moose-Tacos should take a step forward this year, Gordon is very good, as is Butler, and now w/Shields, Davis, Hochavor(sp), Santana, and Gunthrie(sp) in the rotation one could believe they have a shot in a very weak AL Central.
That’s an average rotation at best
Better than the Twins and Indians, arguably as good as the Tigers, probably worse than the White Sox.
And remember, Shields doesn’t go regularly against AL East offenses anymore.
Since when did a rotation with Luke Hochevar and Jeremy Guthrie become “arguably as good as the Tigers?” Not to mention Santana and Davis are fliers at best.
I think you’d be hard pressed to argue that they’re as good as the Tigers with Verlander/Fister/Scherzer up in Detroit.
I honestly forgot about Scherzer. I think that Shields could pitch w/ Verlander a couple times, but apart from that yeah…they aren’t that good. My mistake.
No way, Detroit’s rotation is much better, IMO. Don’t see how Shields/Guthrie/Santana/Hochevar/Chen even comes close to Verlander/Fister/Scherzer/Porcello/Smyly.
And, of course, this doesn’t include Anibal Sanchez in the Tigers’ roation.
There’s still a chance that Sanchez is wearing a Royals Jersey before off-season’s end.
Even if he does I’d still say Detroit’s rotation is superior by a somewhat wide margin.
Lol, yeah it was a dumb, not thought out comment on my behalf. I’m not in baseball mode so guys like Scherzer and Smyly completely skip my mind because 1. They aren’t available, 2. Aren’t divisional rivals, 3. Not Yankees.
No worries, it happens.
I was originally understanding the trade if it was Myers for two years of Shields and a strong arm in Davis, yet seeing the other two prospects the Royals really makes it clear: the Royals are crazy.
It’s a ton of talent going to TB, but Odorizzi and Montgomery are completely out of favor at this point. Not particularly prospects. Maybe the Rays can turn them around, but on paper they have more name value than prospect value right now.
Why is Odorizzi completely out of favor with them? All I know are the numbers and they look solid, though not quite the greatness you would expect from a top, top prospect.
My wording was too strong, but he didn’t have a particularly good 2012 in AAA. High BBs, high FIP, high LB%. Maybe he was just adjusting to a new level and will do well in AAA for TB.
A high HR/9 in the PCL isn’t that big of a deal for a 22 year old with decent peripherals and a low ERA.
I didn’t mention his HRs outside their impact on FIP. I don’t think 1 per 9 is bad at all. That’s what Shields put up in MLB.
I said his LB% and BBs jumped.
I meant that we have to take his FIP with a grain of salt because he plays in a homer heavy league.
But he didn’t give up that many HRs.
Fair enough. He struggled at his first taste of AA in 2011. He’s gonna get plenty of time in AAA with the Rays, though, so we’ll see next year.
If I was a Royals fan, I would not like this deal. Of course, baseball and prospects being what they are, perhaps this will all work out for the Royals in the end.
Gotta love the KLaw snark:
I am just sick of big market teams like the Rays taking advantage of indigent owners like David Glass.
Quite impressed by the speed that Rany On The Royals had up his in-depth analysis of the deal:
http://www.ranyontheroyals.com.....trade.html
Been rumored for weeks, so I’d guess they had it ready to go or at least the thoughts formulated
No one mentioned it here.
mlbtraderumors.com
This has been on the radar literally for about a month.
The read was “short”, but some of the comments are interesting. A couple of people brought up that they could have signed Sanchez for comparable money (to what Shields and Davis will cost the next 2 years) and kept their prospects.
In the same vein as this trade I’m all for keeping Cano, but they should make a full out attempt to extend him NOW. If unsuccessful, trade him to the Cards for a package of Taveras + 1/2. This way you’ll be getting more value/a more surefire prospect instead of a middling first rounder in case you lose him to FA. Again, first preference is to extend, but if you can’t, get max value now. Not like the Mets got with Reyes, who is an inferior player to Cano.
Heh, I first read that as ‘ignorant’ instead…
I had to look up that word. I thought for sure it was a typo. But it fits perfectly.
“1985 was the last time the Royals were in the playoffs”
THIS WHAT THE ROYALS ARE THINKING!!!!!!!!!
24 years !!!!!!!
I would’ve liked to see Cano for this package.
Royals telling the Pirates:
“You’re not the only terrible organization who can compete for half a season now!!!”
I’m now thinking back to Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Blunders where he broke down the Royals’ disastrous signings of Mark Davis and Storm Davis prior to the 1990 season.
I wonder if this might someday be remembered in the same way.
Ben Yoel is tweeting that the Yankees and Youkilis deal is “imminent”
Who is Ben Yoel and why should I believe anything he tweets?
Ummm, who?
He is a social media coordiantor @MLB and a Mets blogger.
Hey, its the highest credentials we;ve had so far.
I did go and look him up. Interesting that someone who works for MLB would put something like that out there even though his blog clearly states his opinions are his and not MLB’s.
Yet if he has some “inside knowledge” because of his affiliation with MLB (not that a social media coordinator would/should have access to any inside information) and connections he’s made by working with MLB, then MLB should have an issue with him. The tweet is just hanging out there with any supporting info. Maybe he’s just guessing based on Reynolds signing and also the other news that the Yankees are close to signing Ichiro. I think the main issue the Yankees had with Ichiro is his leftyness. Maybe they didn’t want to commit to Ichiro until they were sure they had Youkilis locked up. So the Ichiro and Reynolds reports could very much be signals that the Yankees are signing Youkilis.
Great trade for the Rays. Heavy price for the Royals. Imagine what they’re going to trade Price for after next season. Sheesh.
This might be a good time to be thankful that the Yankees have Brian Cashman instead of a guy like Dayton Moore. It could be worse for us fans, just sayin’. Thanks Cash for all that you do.
My condolences to Royals fan, that must hurt a bit.
This obviously helps their SP problems, but I wonder about KC’s offense…
Worse than losing Myers, if I was a Royals fan, I’d be upset that Frenchy will be remaining in rightfield. Actually, it’s not that he’s in RF, it’s that he’ll get another 500 ABs!
77 wRC and -1.2 WAR this past season… yikes. I read somewhere on ESPN that KC had one of the AL’s most productive offenses last season and I was like “since when????” Unfortunately I don’t know how to look up team stats like that yet.
I still don’t think they’ll have what it takes to compete with the Tigers.
Can use fangraphs. They didn’t score many runs: http://www.fangraphs.com/leade.....8;sort=6,d
I’m sure they used Avg…they had the 4th best in the league. God damn it ESPN, why did I even give you the benefit of the doubt that you would use something like team wRC+
Yea, I see that myself now too. Probably was the basis of their argument lol.
Thanks for this, Ted. Looks like they were indeed below average in many categories.
Damnit Ted, why’d you post this…now I’m even madder at the trolls who go w/ the played out meme that the Yankees strike out too much…they are literally in the middle of the pack when it comes to K’s and in the upper tier when it comes to AVG. I knew both of these to be true already BUT to see the evidence right in front of me makes me more angry.
How do they figure most productive? Most RBI’s? Highest AVG w/ RISP? Most Runs Scored w/ RISP? Runs Per Game? Runs Scored? wRC+ as a unit? wOBA as a team?
They didn’t cite any of those stats… literally it was just “one of the most productive offenses”… of course I always take ESPN with a grain of salt
I will say this for the Royals, they’ve added 3 starters to their rotation this offseason, and haven’t lost anyone from their 25 man of significance. They still have Gordon, Hosmer, Escobar, Moustakas, Cain, Perez, Dyson, Butler, etc. and that power bullpen. Not to mention while injured, Danny Duffy when he comes back from TJ. Their line up and pen are both young, and real good. Their rotation of
Shields
Santana
Davis
Guthrie
Hochovar/Mendoza
Might be enough to get them a wild card berth. I think their line-up and pen will be very good, and a good showing by that staff should give them a shot.
Unless the Yankees of course can steal Mendoza. I like him as a player.
I’m really trying to understand here guys and maybe on me and maybe this could be the worse trade since Babe Ruth. However with so many great Royals prospect (always hear how they have one of top farm teams) they haven’t made the playoffs in 24 years.
Maybe that all they’re trying to do is make the playoffs and maybe that’s something that is completely lost on us Yankees fans.
Because their big league organization is run god-awfully. Also…I haven’t been hearing that they have one of the top farms very often. And even if you do, you need to avoid doing things like jerking around a good player (Alex Gordon) and delaying his ability to begin producing, giving out deals to Jeff Francouer and Gil Meche and stuff like that.
Would make more sense if the Royals were going to contend. Not a bad package going to the Rays but not highway robbery. Stop reading 2012 top 100 rankings like gospel. They are out of date.
“Stop reading 2012 top 100 rankings like gospel”
Boy are you in the wrong site.
You’re right, Wil Myers is worth far, far more after the 2012 season. That’s what makes this highway robbery. Especially considering that the Royals aren’t going to contend.
It looks like Youkalis will be a Yankee. Then they’ll sign Ichiro and all is settled but catching and DH. Youkalis will be a great DH/3b combo when Arod returns. Still need a DH and catcher and preferably right handed . The entire outfield is left handed. We could use Nunez to DH as odd as that seems but he’s right handed and can hit and run. He just doesn’t have much power. How about a lineup of Ichiro Jeter Cano Tex Grandy Youkalis Ibanez Nunez and Gardner. Eight nine and one can really run and there’s good left right balance. It keeps the 2014 budget in place with one year deals for Ichiro and Youkalis. It’s not bad but our catching really stinks.
You’ve got 3 DH’s and no catcher…
Spectacularly bad trade for the Royals.
agreed. How do you trade your top two prospects (not even in your system but in baseball) to the Rays and not get David Price in return?
Easy they just did.
Not at all….signing a steroid cheating choker to a 10 year $25M per extension is spectacularly bad.
Did A-Rod hit on your GF or something? I get that his deal was ridiculous, but do you have to bring him up every other time you post, even on non-Arod articles?
What could trading Granderson and Cano get you? I wonder if the Yankees are considering Hamilton – thinking a 4-5 year deal is less risky than an 8 year one for Cano. If you sign Hamilton then you aren’t signing Cano. Perhaps if you trade them both, might you get younger players that make getting under 189M easier? I can’t see how they do it now.
the yankees will never sign cano, boras will be asking 250 million. a trade now make sense.
If you don’t want to win in 2013, sure, it makes sense.
No way he gets that much.
swisher wants jason werth money!
And Martin wants 4 years, $40M.
God if the Yankees can’t win 2013 Championship I hope the Royals do because the open thread that night would so worth it.
And beat the Rays to make the series with Shields pitching shutout to clutch it.
If you’re going to dream then dream big.
Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson could have been had for just money. No they are not as good as James Shields, but you would have gotten to keep Wil Myers. No sense, absolutely no sense.
I don’t think Anibal Sanchez is that far off from James Shields.
2 years of Shields for 21 million or 5 years of Anibal for 75 million. Same could be applied to Jackson who is looking for a 3+ year deal. If you were the Royals which would you choose ?
Bingo!!!!
Considering the money they have to spend to get Myers’ equivalent with the bat, versus having him cheap for the next 6 years, I would take EJax 8 days a week and twice on Sunday
What are Myers’ career MLB stats again? I can’t remember…
He’s a great prospect, but assuming he reaches something close to his ceiling isn’t logical. Too many prospects flame out to assume he’s going to succeed.
As you’ve pointed out before, the flame-out rate of elite position players is considerably lower, and he has 99 games of success at AAA at the age of 21. Plus as a CF, he doesn’t even have to approach his offensive ceiling to be very valuable.
This.
You may have a point, but at the same time free agents are not lining up to sign with Kansas City. Historically they have had to offer above market deals to less than elite FAs. Maybe Edwin Jackson could have fallen into that group. Probably not Sanchez, though, who has a lot of interest. Might have had to go $100 million to convince Sanchez that he should live in KC half the year to play for a pretty terrible organization… at which point it’s hard to back out of it later via trade.
I just think that the Royals have prematurely decided they can compete. Their starting pitching will now be much better than 24 in the league with Shields a full season of Guthrie and Santana, Davis, Chen, Hochevar and Mendoza competing for the other spots. But are they a good team? There staff now looks to be above average rather than bad, and their offense wasn’t good last year either. The other day we disagreed about the Yankees trading Cano for prospects. I don’t think it’s a good idea, because the Yankees are trading a chance to compete for the chance of future value. Here the Royals are trading the chance of future value for what? They aren’t going anywhere if Eric Hosmer is a negative WAR player and Mike Moustakas is a below league average hitter. All of their players are under team control for a while, why not wait until your promising offense is actually good before you sold your farm for pitching. There window just shrunk to two years because of this trade. Yes they could resign Shields, but I doubt they will if they lose for the next two years.
I’m really not sure what to think of this – I’m surprised the Rays traded Shields for a package of people with zero MLB experience but also I thought the Royals could have gotten significantly more for Myers. Pretty clear that the Rays get the most upside and highest risk while the Royals get the most proven commodities and lowest risk. I’m pretty much indifferent on this though. Only time will tell who comes out ahead here.
Agree I’m in the same boat.
Bingo. It’s amazing to see how many people instantly assume Myers is going to be this great player. I can why the risk is worth taking, especially without a big bat coming up the pipeline for them, and its apparent they were going to do nothing to keep Shields. The Royals also, though, have a couple of years to see if THIS group of young guys can, with a hell of frontline pitcher, take that next step.
I guess that, if you know this far in advance you weren’t keeping him, then the Rays got a pretty good deal for themselves.
It’s not that I assume Myers is a star. Maybe he bombs and this trade looks great for Dayton Moore. But it’s still bad process.
Agreed. This is a deal that could go either way. Makes some sense for both teams, though I also agree with people that giving more than Myers alone was not a bargain for the Royals at all.
For what it’s worth, the Royals had been publicly shopping Myers for a while now. If this was a totally ridiculous deal to other GMs with some talent to deal, there was plenty of time to step in and top what the Rays gave up.
That doesn’t mean that the Royals should necessarily have made this deal instead of others or just standing pat. It just means that it’s probably more in-line with the market price of Myers, Shields, etc. than most people on here seem to think.
This package for price would’ve made more sense. Moves like this are y rays compete every year and part of the reason the royals suck every year. How do you give up that much and not get the best pitcher on the team?
Wil Myers will make it stop raining today.
Wil Myers will do all my Christmas shopping for me.
Wil Myers will single-handedly avoid the fiscal cliff.
99% of the people whining about this trade probably had never even heard of Myers before this post.
I agree with dalelama.
Goodbye cruel world.
I laughed.
If people haven’t heard of a top prospect like Myers, they likely don’t frequent this site very often.
Yes, I’ve seen his name thrown around by folks who love to name rip other team’s prospects. How does this chane the fact that he’s still a prospect?
My issue isn’t with his being highly regarded. My issue is with his being declared a sure thing and it obviously meaning that Tampa lost the trade when we zero basis for that. Zero.
I actually like this trade for KC the more I think of it. There’s going to be a window that is going to shut around that core doing anything.
That’s true, but the window hasn’t opened yet. The Royals aren’t a competitive team yet and they just traded away 6 years of an elite prospect, 6 years of a good prospect and 6 years of a high upside arm, and formerly elite prospect, for 2 years of a good starting pitcher and 5 years of Wade Davis.
If they were a Jamie Shields away from taking the next step, I’d say more power to them. But they aren’t. Shields and Davis aren’t going to get them into the playoffs any more than Myers and Odorizzi were.
Totally, dude. That’s why Law, Sickels, Newman, and all the guys from Bullpen Banter are saying that the Royals got hosed.
And they didn’t just trade Wil Myers. Odorizzi is their best pitching prospect by a long shot and Montgomery is still a high upside arm.
And time will tell whether those guys are right or not.
Why even try anymore? I thought this kind of things might at least slow down after Montero, but I realize now it won’t.
Some fans will never understand how big the jump is from AAA to MLB.
No shit it’s a big jump. That doesn’t make it any less stupid to trade your top 2 prospects for 2 years of a #2 starter when you’re not close to competing.
“That’s why Law, Sickels, Newman, and all the guys from Bullpen Banter”
“So let it be written,so let it be done”
PLEASE!!
LOL
One negative regarding Myers ……….struck out 140 times in the minors last yr.
I have to think the royals wouldn’t have traded Myers had they believed in him, they shopped him for Brett Anderson too apparently. I just can’t see trading a guy with Myers potential for anything other than David price.
Anyone who rips the Royals for getting a great Major League pitcher in exhange for for minor leaguers with ZERO Major League experience is an idiot. You’re letting your desire to play armchair cap expert and (Billy) Beane counter cloud an inherent truth about baseball.
Do you relaize how hard it is to be successful in the the Majors? Do you realize what a leap it is from AAA All Star to MLB? Tampa Bay has NOTHING coming to them that they can count on, except hope. Hope may be a powerful thing, but it fdoesn’t actually win you any games.
This is an eminently reasonable trade for both sides.
You would have a point, if the Royals were going to compete during Shield’s contract.
But they’re not.
How do you know?
I’m sorry is it the same Crystal Ball that tells so many people here that Myers is going to be a star.
How many people picked the O’s to be that good last year?
The Orioles were significantly better offensively in 2011 than the Royals were in 2012 in terms of runs scored. The Orioles lowered their team ERA by a full run. The Royals’ staff was solidly mediocre, they don’t have a full run to lose.
This all ignoring the Orioles’ unsustainable streak of one run wins. The Royals can’t count on a similar streak.
Nice analysis, but until they get on the field that all that it is what you think might happen. So saying this” But they’re not” is just being narrow-minded.
Fine. Is “but they suck right now and don’t project to get much better in the next couple of years due to their utter lack of offense” more acceptable, sir?
It’s funny because there offense ranked worse in the AL than their pitching did. But everybody seems to think that selling offense for pitching is the way to go.
Shhhh… we’re not allowed to use context while evaluating this trade!
[...] One thing I don’t believe is being said enough about the Rays-Royals blockbuster is that Tampa is taking a huge risk. We can argue whether Jamie Shields is an ace all day, but [...]