Fan Confidence Poll: March 3rd, 2014

Open Thread: 3/2 Camp Notes
Yankees rank 28th in Baseball Prospectus' 25 and under rankings

Spring Training Record: 3-2 (26 RS, 20 RA)
Spring Training Games This Week: vs. Nationals (Mon. on YES, MLBN), vs. Orioles (Tues. on YES, MLBN), @ Rays (Weds.), @ Phillies (Thurs. on MLBN), vs. Tigers (Fri.), @ Astros (Sat. on MLBN), vs. Rays (Sun. on YES)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?

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Open Thread: 3/2 Camp Notes
Yankees rank 28th in Baseball Prospectus' 25 and under rankings
  • The Great Gonzo

    Yangervis Solarte will save us this season. 10 FTW.

  • I’m One

    Baseline 7. Nothing has really changed. CC still an unkown, Teix not yet playing. Jeter seems he’ll be fine, but we need more time to tell. The high-profile new guys seem to be what was expected of them, but it’s still way to early to tell …. except for this kid Solarte. He’s clearly an over-looked, under-valued pick up the team made that will be the next star! Maybe I should vote a 10 …..

    • Jorge Steinbrenner

      I don’t mind people sending a bit of love Yangervis’s way, but someone should really research if there’s overlap between those commenters and those who make fun of every MiLB signing in November.

      MAYBE ATHENIAN CAN DO A STUDY. Dick.

      • Pitch FX

        Poor Butthurt bastard

    • Tanakapalooza Floozy

      I agree with everything you say, and add that the main guys on the farm are also unknowns overall (not only by definition, but by the generally poor performances of 2013).

      Therefore, I vote 5 as usual.

      I have to see one or more of the unknowns (Jeter, Teix, Pineda, CC, farm) improve for me to go higher from here.

      • I’m One

        It’s simply far too early to make any kind of real determination as to how last year’s under-performers or injured players will do this coming season. However, so far, so good.

        As far as the MiLB guys go, about the only one I can see having an impact on the team is Betances. (I count Pineda among the injured). I expect Cervelli to be the BU catcher (barring a trade), so I don’t see Romine or Murphy contributing unless they are part of a trade package that brings back something of need (IF help).

        So, the team needs CC, Teix & Jeter to return to form, needs Nova to be consistently good the entire season, and needs the new pickups to perform as expected. Then they need a bit of luck, pleny of healthy players, and perhaps an in-season addition or 2 to give the team a realiztic shot at a successfull playoff run, leading to #28 (the chanpionship number, not the manager number).

        Oh, and of course, Solarte. :-)

        • Jorge Steinbrenner

          Where does Scott Sizemore fit into your complex matrix, or is it assumed he’s listed under “MVP.”

          • I’m One

            There is no other option for him, is there?

        • Tanakapalooza Floozy

          Well the poll is system wide – farm, MLB team/roster, FO, ownership, etc. So I consider development on the farm all the way to the very lowest levels in my vote. And yes of course it’s too soon for any of the unknowns to be known. Hence my 5. This is an 85-88 win team even with a handful of things breaking right.

  • Jorge Steinbrenner

    Can we be enthusiastic this week? Yes we can.

    I’m up to a highly volatile 8 this week from baseline 7. Why? Well, Tanaka, for one, showing signs of being the guy we are hoping we’re getting for the next 5-7 seasons. There’s also our IF depth showing some nice flash and bat early on, as well as nifty early work from Betances in the bullpen. Maybe, just maybe, we’re able to patch up those weak spots better than we thought we were going to.

    And we haven’t even unleashed Sizemore yet.

    • Chip Rodriguez

      Sanchez and Murph are also looking really impressive right now, so the value of some trade chips also seems to be going up.

      Not to mention that Betances and Cabral also looked damn good in Saturday’s shutout. I had high expectations for Tanaka, but it’s great seeing a couple of the higher level minor relievers starting well.

      • Jorge Steinbrenner

        Cabral played his probably role as you’d want him to.

        Not worried about Sanchez and trade value, as he’s sufficiently far away that McCann’s not blocking his future.

        Unless Murphy can be oversold as an above-average MLB-ready catcher that lands you an actual, real solid MLB infielder, I’d rather just see if we can increase his positional versatility.

  • Darren

    The 12 people who voted a 4 or lower need to get laid.

    • Jorge Steinbrenner

      They’d probably just be a stickier 4.

    • TWTR

      With people who are not 4s or lower, otherwise it won’t have the desired effect.

      • Jorge Steinbrenner

        Darren plans on farming himself out as RAB stud for this purpose. You must put on this Derek Jeter mask first, though.

        • TWTR

          I would that gift baskets are included with the mask.

          • TWTR

            Edit: *hope* that

        • Darren

          I used to do that, actually, but I stopped once it started feeling like a job.

      • The Great Gonzo

        I imagine it would be a SOOOOPER depressing sexual experience, and at least one of the two participants would be thinking that the Rays/Red Sox/Cardinals could do it better.

        • jjyank

          Ohhh yeahhhh. Do me like the Cardinals farm system…

          • Jorge Steinbrenner

            “Give it to me good, Ben Cherington, I mean, Slu….”

  • Larry Love

    A lot of fans seem to have a pessimistic outlook but I like this team. I have not felt this good coming into a season for a while now. I think it’s because Jeter is on his way out a lot of people are just kind of meh about the team. But I really like how t his team looks on paper. McCann was a great signing that was downplayed by a lot of people locally. I think the rotation has immense potential if Nova makes that next step, CC can return to form, and Pineda can become the pitcher we hoped along with Tanaka of course. I also really like the speed of the outfield with Granderson and Ellsbury. I’m also excited about Betances in the bullpen. This will be a fun team to watch and I think will surprise a lot of people. I think the team looks good for the next 3 to 4 years. Long term it’s hazier. They really need Tanaka to become what we hope he will be. An ace. They also need Nova and Pineda to continue to develop and round out the rotation. If that happens then you have to hope they get at least one or two really good positional guys coming up so that way you can build a foundation.

    • Tanakapalooza Floozy

      Jeter being on the way out has zero to do with me being meh on this team. I am meh on this team because it is a meh roster, with tons of massive question marks, with a meh farm behind it. This is an 85-88 win team even with a bunch of things breaking right.

      I’ll still root hard, and want to be proven wrong. But until/unless that happens, then yeah, meh.

      • Larry Love

        I think it’s an exciting roster. The question marks are there definitely but there are some exciting players on this roster. Tanaka being one. Ellsbury. McCann. Beltran. Pineda if things break right. Meh expectations I can see but not a meh roster.

  • TWTR

    I think the season could turn on Teixeira and Pineda. If both those players make important contributions (even if they are never what they once were, which is a near certainty with Tex), this team could be golden.

    The same could said about Jeter and CC, but I think both are much more likely to be at least solid.

    • I’m One

      I agree the performance of 2 could make a significant difference in the team’s season. I think CC and Teix are probably the keys, provided health and expected performance of the majority of the team’s players. I think Jeter will hit near .300 with acceptable (for him) fielding for ~120 games and if we get better than Hughes performance from the 5th starter, the team will be OK. If the 5th starter (probably Pineda in this case) pitches somewhere close to a 3-4 type, that will be a big boost.

      I really don’t know what to expect with Teix. I’m sure he’ll be find on D, but if his power is sapped this season, I hope he adjustst and tries to hit for better average. Power or average from him will go a long way, but we need one or the other.

      • Jorge Steinbrenner

        How the other four starters perform could help compensate a ton if CC appears to be sliding into “durable innings eater” more than “front-line guy” as he enters his mid-30’s.

        If Tex appears to not fully recover from the wrist, I see less of a net there, as well as it being harder for the rest of the team to make up his production.

        CC’s a key, and a slightly more visible one, but I’d be slightly more concerned about Tex moving forward.

        What we get out of the entire infield seems huge to me at the moment. Doesn’t mean I’m not fine with what I see them attempting right now.

        • Tanakapalooza Floozy

          FotD™: CC can’t even pitch to “durable innings eater” status.

          (I mean jeez he was literally one of the very worst pitchers in all of MLB last year by any number of measures. Durable innings eater would be an improvement in my book!

          • Preston

            This is a misunderstanding of how to evaluate starters. First, CC Sabathia pitched 211 innings last season, 18th most in the league. That by definition is eating innings. Second, his ERA was high, 6th worst of qualified starters. But the key words are “qualified starter”. Only 79 pitchers qualified. At any point in the year there are 150 MLB starting pitchers. Last season 296 pitchers made starts. Those guys aren’t “qualified” because they weren’t good enough to earn a spot, or they couldn’t stay healthy. So CC was bad, but he was better than the alternatives. Finally, you should lend some creedance to FIP and xFIP, both that show CC wasn’t as bad as his ERA would indicate. His career ERA (3.60) is in line with his FIP (3.54) and xFIP (3.66). So at this season we shouldn’t assume that his ERA (4.78) is more indicative of his talent level than his FIP (4.10) or xFIP (3.76). So his decline is probably overstated by an unlucky ERA spike. And most projection systems agree, pegging him as somewhere between a 3-4 WAR pitcher, which is obviously not what he was at his peak, but would still be plenty useful.

  • Larry Love

    ^Oops meant Gardner not Granderson!

    • Jorge Steinbrenner

      Don’t wake last week’s Granderson troll, please.

  • Yankenstein

    7. We seem to be heading in the right direction. Hopefully injuries won’t de-rail us again. We have the potential for a really good rotation. The bullpen should be fine with DRob as closer. I think we will either find someone in-house to shore up third or pick up someone’s castoff and move Kelly Johnson back into the role he was originally signed for, super sub for the infield. Our outfield may be the best in the game.

  • Kosmo

    projected 2014 Bench:
    Cervelli C
    Ichiro OF
    Ryan SS
    Nunez 3B/SS/2B
    next to no pop off the bench. Good D with Ichiro and Ryan.

    would rather have:
    Romine C
    Almonte OF
    Ryan SS
    Franklin SS/2B/3B

    at this point would settle for Anna or Solarte over Nunez.

    Yanks could add a bullpen arm.

    • The Great Gonzo

      The Yankees have not had ‘pop off the bench’ since Ruben Sierra. They have gotten by without it. And Almonte/Lettuce/Ryan/Franklin/Anna/Solarte do not offer much pop…

      • Preston

        Andruw Jones posted ISO’s of .247 and .210 in 2011 and 2012
        Eric Chavez posted a .216 in 2012.

        • The Great Gonzo

          Yeah, I forgot about those dudes.

      • Kosmo

        Andruw Jones , Marcus Thames , Eric Chavez anyone ?

        • The Great Gonzo

          Redacted… I forgot about those dudes. And Eric Hinske too.

          Shit

          • Jorge Steinbrenner

            Vernon Wells.

            *ducks*

    • Jorge Steinbrenner

      You can’t make Franklin magically happen.

      Cervelli and Romine are a complete toss-up to me in a vacuum, but that’s not where we’re at. Unless Cervelli finds trade value under a rock somewhere and brings back something potentially useful (probably not happening), I’d rather just preserve the depth at the position until something else shakes out.

      I’ll say it again: With split squad games coming up, throw an infielder’s glove at John Ryan Murphy and see if he doesn’t completely shit the bed out there. Versatility should be the team’s friend with him.

      Zoilo’s a nice little guy. I’d rather have Ichiro coming off cold off the bench.

      Your lack of Sizemore disturbs me.

      • Kosmo

        Obviously NY would have to trade for Franklin which is what my comment implies.

        Sizemore will start the season at AAA unless he proves otherwise of course that would more than likely mean the end of Nunez.

        No point in instigating a Murphy to 3B campaign. He´s played all of 14 games at 3B and his value as a C has somewhat skyrocketed these past months.

        Cervelli has a lot more trade value than you think.

        • Preston

          How? The Rays are rumored to be negotiating with the Mariner’s and the rumored guy is Jake Odirizzi. The Yankees don’t have a comparable ready to plug in talent.

        • The Great Gonzo

          My bench would be Profar-IF, Trout-OF, Berra-C, Griffey Jr circa 1998-OF (which, of course, implies that the Yankees trade for Trout & Profar, and build a time machine to go and kidnap Berra & Griffey)…

          • Jorge Steinbrenner

            The Yanks’ standing in the BP 25-and-under ranking somehow suffers here unless you froze the aging process with Yogi and Griffey.

            • I’m One

              Since Gonzo dialed in 1998 Griffey into the time machine, he’d be of no help inthe 25-and-under ranking. However, maybe we could get a younger Bera.

              Gonzo, set that time machine correctly!

          • Tanakapalooza Floozy

            Don’t forget Gehrig to back up Teix.

        • Jorge Steinbrenner

          I don’t think a career BUC with one good offensive month in his entire career, coming off a 50-game PED suspension, has the kind of trade value which brings this team back anything of note.

          I’m not instigating a campaign here. If John Ryan Murphy is going to have a future as a New York Yankee, it’s not going to be as a catcher. He’s too close to the show to be made to wait three seasons, with a potentially better player one level behind him, and may be too good a hitter to sit there as BUC. This isn’t about believing he can do it at another position. It’s about seeing if he could. I understand the extreme SSS with third.

          His value was understated previously. He has value. Now what does he bring back, and how would that be preferable to keeping him? That’s the question, to me.

          • jjyank

            I kind of disagree about Murphy. I do agree that he probably doesn’t have a future here as a catcher, but I think I’d rather seen him playing every day as a C in AAA. If the Yanks roll that dice, and Murphy happens to be building on last year’s season, we suddenly have a pretty nice trade chip at the deadline. I’d rather him focus on improving his overall game and keeping his catching defense sharp, instead of having him learn a (relatively) new position and possibly taking his focus off of the offensive game.

            Just my two cents.

            • Jorge Steinbrenner

              I’m just looking to see how we could conceivably keep him. I’d love to see him slapping doubles with the occasional one going over the fence for years to come. He was always my underdog favorite of the catching prospects.

              • jjyank

                I understand trying to find a spot for him. But hypothetically, would it make more sense to let him continue to develop as a C and trade him for an actual 3B or 2B?

                I suppose there’s no harm in having him take a few grounders at third and see what happens from there, but I think the best path here is to let him focus on being a C and cross the bridge about his place in the organization in the next 5-12 months.

              • Preston

                If he can be a solid 3b with above average offense then it’s great. But if the bat is below average and his defense is poor we’ve wasted valuable development time behind the plate and devalued an asset.

                • Jorge Steinbrenner

                  I guess that depends on how much more development they feel he needs behind the plate.

                  • Preston

                    Any trade partner would automatically view it as an indictment of his D if the Yankees gave him more than a few games at a different position.

          • Preston

            I disagree, John Ryan is fine right where he is. He has 257 ABs at AAA, he can spend all of 2013 in AAA without him being “held back”. It’s not like he’s posting extremely gaudy offensive stats and forcing their hand. Sure he should work out at 3b/1b so he can get some extra ABs if and when he gets to the show, but BUC gets you 40 games per year and that’s without any injuries. As for Sanchez, I don’t think he enters into the equation at all. The two guys are our top prospects, we had the same situation with Montero and Romine several years back. Montero couldn’t catch and Romine couldn’t stay healthy, these things work themselves out. If it becomes a problem, it’ll be one the Yankees would be happy to deal with.

            • Jorge Steinbrenner

              Totally agree with that last part.

            • jjyank

              Exactly. Just like pitching, you can never have too much catching. Last season, MLB catchers averaged a .245/.310/.388 line, good for a 92 wRC+. There are plenty of teams have would love to get their hands on potential above average catchers. I say let Murphy do his thing and hope his keeps increasing his value.

          • I’m One

            I generally agree that it would most likely hurt his development to sit as a BU catcher anywhere and with Sanchez waiting in the wings to move up to AAA, it’s possible he’d be pushed into that role sooner rather than later.

            However, I don’t see that positional flexibility (if he’s capable) provides that much more value to the Yankees or potential trade partners. I think all would be better served with his continued development at C.

      • jjyank

        “I’d rather just preserve the depth at the position until something else shakes out.”

        Agreed. Cervelli is out of options, correct? I doubt Romine over Cervelli as teh BUC makes much impact, if any. I’d rather have the depth than lose one for such a slight tweak.

    • I’m One

      I’d stick with Cervelli over Romine based on MLB expereince and the little we saw of him last year, although I don’t see a considerable difference one way or another. And the team does need a back up for Teix, so I’d say Canzler or Sizemore needs to be in there somewhere. (Team Sizemore KNOWS Sizemore will be the starting 3B and pitch every 4th day – because he’s just that good – so I guess he can probably cover for Teix as well by playing both 3B and 1B in the same game once a week or so.)

  • sfochild

    8, because it’s spring training and I’m an optimist

  • nycsportzfan

    What happened to get less 8’ers then last wk? Tanaka pitched well. They have been rolling in grapefruit league ball, and almost all the hitters and pitchers that we need to be good for us, have looked solid in doing so. Obviously, its a small amount of preseason games, I understand that, but it’s really all there is to go on, from last wk. What changed , is what i’m saying?

    Yanks are gonna be beast’s this yr.