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Oct
15

Wednesday Night Open Thread

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This is your open thread for the rest of the evening. The Royals and Orioles should be wrapping up Game Four of the ALCS right about now (on TBS), and later tonight the Giants and Cardinals will play Game Four of the NLCS (8pm ET on FOX Sports1). None of the local hockey or basketball teams are playing. Talk about the two LCS games or whatever else is on your mind right here.

Categories : Open Thread
Comments (257)

Wednesday: The Yankees will indeed interview Magadan for the hitting coach job, according to King. He was scheduled to be in New York today for the interview. It’s unclear when Davis will interview for the position.

Tuesday: According to John Hickey, the Yankees will interview Athletics hitting coach Chili Davis for their vacant hitting coach position. Davis confirmed he’ll soon travel to New York for the interview. He was mentioned as a candidate for the job recently. The 54-year-old Davis has been Oakland’s hitting coach since 2012, and before that he was a minor league hitting instructor with the Dodgers and Red Sox. He played 19 years in the big leagues and finished his career with the Yankees from 1998-99.

The Yankees are also talking to Rangers hitting coach Dave Magadan about the position, according to George King and Joel Sherman. “I have been called about that, it’s in the preliminary stages and that’s all I can say about it,” he said. Magadan, 52, has been Texas’ hitting coach since 2012. He held the same job with the Padres (2003-06) and Red Sox (2007-11) in the past. Magadan played 16 years in the show, including his first seven with the Mets. Both he and Davis are well-regarded around the game and that’s pretty much all I know about their coaching skills.

Categories : Asides, Coaching Staff
Comments (182)
(Brian Blanco/Getty)

(Brian Blanco/Getty)

At this time last year, we were all exciting about penciled Ivan Nova into the 2014 rotation. His 2011-13 seasons were filled with ups and downs — including send-downs to Triple-A Scranton and call-ups to MLB — but he pitched very well in the second half last season and was a bright spot as the team faded from postseason contention. Nova had a 2.59 ERA (3.30 FIP) in his final 15 starts and finished the year with a 3.10 ERA (3.47 FIP) in 139.1 innings.

Nova, along with Hiroki Kuroda, was supposed to be a rock in Joe Girardi‘s rotation this year. CC Sabathia was coming off the worst season of his career and no one really knew what to expect from Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda. Nova came to camp guaranteed a rotation spot for the first time of his career and, in fact, the Yankees even started him in the third game of the season, ahead of the high-priced Tanaka. That was as much about easing Tanaka’s transition as it was a vote of confidence in Nova.

In retrospect, that first start of the season was a sign something was not right. Nova held the Astros to two runs in 5.1 innings but it was a brutally tough outing — he walked five batters, struck out one, threw 47 of 88 pitches for strikes (53%), and got only one swing and miss. He labored against a bad team all night. Next time out, the Orioles clobbered Nova for seven runs on ten hits in only 3.2 innings. With a Game Score of 16, it was the third worst start of his career.

It looked like the bad version of Nova had returned. The guy who had a 5.02 ERA (4.60 FIP) in 2012 and earned midseason demotions to Triple-A in both 2011 and 2013. Then, right on cue, Nova threw a gem, holding the Red Sox to two runs in 7.1 innings. He struck out four, got 14 ground ball outs, and threw 67 of 97 pitches were strikes (69%). Nova did allow eight hits and had to battle for those 7.1 innings, but it was a strong start and what we all wanted to see after those two ugly outings to start 2014.

Nova’s fourth start of the season wound up being his last and it was a total disaster. The Rays battered him at Tropicana Field, scoring eight runs on eight hits in only four innings of work. Four of those eight hits left the yard and another was a double. Tampa Bay squared Nova up with ease. It was ugly. Girardi came out of the dugout not to pull his right-hander because of ineffectiveness, but with the trainer because there was a sign of injury. Here is Nova’s final pitch of the 2014 season:

Ivan Nova elbow shake

That little shake of the arm after the pitch is what got Girardi’s attention and forced Nova out of the game. He went for a series of tests and opinions and they all showed the same thing: a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Not a complete tear but large enough that Tommy John surgery was recommended. He underwent his elbow reconstruction on April 29th.

Nova finished the season with an 8.27 ERA (6.91 FIP) in four starts and 20.2 innings, but the numbers don’t really mean much of anything. He could have been pitching with soreness or pain in his elbow all year — Nova tried to talk Girardi into staying in the game in Tampa, so he’s not one to give up the ball easily — which certainly could have hurt his performance. Heck, Nova could have been pitching with the partial tear and not even have known it. There might have been no soreness or anything until that last pitch.

A few weeks ago we heard Nova has started a throwing program and is right on schedule with his rehab. He obviously has a long way to go before rejoining the team, and both Girardi and Brian Cashman have said they won’t be aggressive and try to get Nova back as quickly as possible. They’re going to let him rehab at his own pace, which makes sense. Far too many pitchers (Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, Cory Luebke, Jarrod Parker, Jonny Venters, etc.) needed a second Tommy John procedure in recent months to push him.

This was a lost year for Nova, who still has yet to have a full season in the Yankees rotation, from start to finish. He won’t have that full season next year either giving the time of his injury, which means the 2016 season will be his only chance to be a full-time starter all year before qualifying for free agency. The injury hurt the team and it was also a big blow to Nova at an important point in his career. This year was a great chance for him to cement his place in the future of the Yankees going forward. Baseball ain’t fair sometimes.

Categories : Players
Comments (85)

Baseball America’s look at the top prospects in each minor league continued on Wednesday with the Triple-A Intentional League, the last list relevant to the Yankees. The list is free, the scouting reports are not. Pirates OF Gregory Polanco, Red Sox IF/OF Mookie Betts, and Indians SS Francisco Lindor fill the top three spots. Triple-A Scranton didn’t have a ton of top prospects this year, though 2B Rob Refsnyder did made the list at No. 13.

“Refsnyder’s short, powerful stroke from the right side is polished, and when combined with a keen batting eye, he projects to hit for average and get on base at a high rate,” said the write-up while noting Refsnyder “lacks fluidity and must improve his double-play pivot skills.” One scout said he is “a work in progress, but the bottom line is he can hit.” The 23-year-old Refsnyder hit .300/.389/.456 (137 wRC+) with 19 doubles and eight homers in 77 games for the RailRiders after a midseason promotion from Double-A Trenton. I’m pretty confident we’ll see him at second base sometime next year.

Other League Top 20s: Double-A Eastern League, High-A Florida State League, Low-A South Atlantic League, Short Season NY-Penn League, Rookie Gulf Coast League.

Categories : Asides, Minors
Comments (153)
(Mike Stobe/Getty)

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Even though the Yankees fell short of the playoffs this past season, they still had a bunch of memorable moments during the regular season. Big hits, specifically, and I think we can all agree Derek Jeter‘s walk-off single in his final game at Yankee Stadium was the most memorable hit of the year and maybe of the last 20 years. It was that amazing. I’m going to remember that hit for the rest of the my life.

But was that one of the most important hits of the season? Not really. The Yankees had already been eliminated from postseason contention at that point and the win didn’t mean anything in the standings. In this post we’re going to look at the team’s biggest hits of the season using win probability added (WPA), a nice quick and dirty way to measure how much an event (hit, out, etc.) improves the club’s chances of winning. Jeter’s walk-off single clocked in at +0.31 WPA, meaning it improved their chances of winning 31%. That’s high but not exactly mind-blowing.

Like every other stat, WPA is not perfect. It lacks context, such as the pitcher, the batter, postseason race position, all sorts of stuff. A division winning walk-off homer against Craig Kimbrel would have the same WPA as a walk-off homer against Esmil Rogers on April 2nd. That’s alright though, I’m only putting this list together for fun and I don’t intend to present it as some kind of detailed analysis. Here are the biggest hits posts for 2011 and 2012. Apparently I didn’t do one last year. My bad.

t-5. May 6th: Brian Roberts homers off Ernesto Frieri (video above)
t-5. May 24th: Jacoby Ellsbury homers off Zach Putnam (video)
t-5. July 9th: Ellsbury homers off Vinnie Pestano (video)

Tied for fifth are three nearly identical homers — they’re all solo shots in the ninth inning or later of a tie game on the road, giving the Yankees the lead. Same situation and same result for all three (extra innings are effectively the same thing as the ninth inning), hence the identical WPAs. Roberts ambushed a first pitch fastball from Frieri for his first homer of the season — this was right around the time it looked Roberts like could still hit a little and be useful — while Ellsbury clobbered a hanging changeup from Putnam and a hanging slider from Pestano. The three homers each checked in at +0.42 WPA.

4. September 4th: Mark Teixeira homers off Koji Uehara

After coming out of the gate strong and hitting homeruns left and right, Teixeira slumped big time in the second half. He went deep just five times after the All-Star break. His second to last homer of the season was this game-tying solo shot in the bottom of the ninth off a busted Uehara, who was in the middle of a stretch in which he allowed ten runs on 14 hits (four homers) in 4.2 innings. Uehara threw a two-strike splitter than didn’t split and Teixeira clobbered the 81 mph nothingball left out over the plate. The homer was worth +0.44 WPA. Chase Headley followed with a walk-off homer later in the inning, as I’m sure you remember.

3. June 30th: Roberts homers off Joel Peralta

This is the token “huh, I don’t remember that” hit of the five biggest hits list. I did remember it after watching the video though, which was nice. I wonder how much baseball I’ve forgotten over the years. A lot. Probably some cool stuff too. Anyway, Peralta’s pitch was very similar to the Frieri pitch from earlier, a fastball down and in, the kind of pitch left-handed hitters can golf out to right. And that’s exactly what Roberts did, golfed it out to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth. This one measured +0.47 WPA. Fun fact: the Yankees lost this game anyway. Jose Ramirez allowed a run in the top of the tenth and that was that. Losing the game in which you received your third biggest hit of the season by WPA is the most 2014 Yankees thing ever.

2. September 11th: Chris Young homers off Jake McGee

Alright, now we’re talking. Those game-tying and go-ahead homers on the road were cute, but now it’s time for the very big hits. The ones that turned a multi-run deficit into a win with one swing of the bat. First up is Chris Young’s three-run walk-off homer against the Rays. He hit it a few pitches after Headley took a fastball to the chin. I know you remember that. Here’s the WPA graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Young gets credit for the big hit, but this inning was set up by Headley’s chin and Ichiro Suzuki‘s double to right field, which put the tying run in scoring position with one out. McGee seemed to stay away away away to every hitter after hitting Headley, and sure enough the pitch Young hit out was a fastball up in the zone and on the outer half. He got to it with his long swing and drove it out for the walk-off three-run homer, turning a 4-2 deficit into a 5-4 win with one swing. The WPA on this one: +0.72. That’s huge. Bigger than the team’s biggest hit in 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 (tied for biggest), and 2009. But only the second biggest this year.

1. June 20th: Carlos Beltran homers off Zach Britton

Surely you knew this was number one, right? It was probably the most memorable non-Jeter moment of the season. The Yankees had just won three straight and seven of their last nine games, and it felt like they were finally starting to build some momentum at midseason. Ubaldo Jimenez of all people shut them down that night, and Britton inherited a 3-1 lead in the ninth.

Brett Gardner led the inning off with a single, but quick outs by Jeter and Ellsbury put the Yankees on the ropes. Teixeira drew a walk and pushed Gardner into scoring position, then Brian McCann drove him in a bloopy little bloop to center. The tying run was in scoring position and the winning run was on base. Britton, an extreme sinkerballer, was up in the zone all inning, and Beltran was able to work him into a favorable 3-1 count.

You know what happened next. Britton left another pitch up and Beltran hooked it into left for a walk-off three-run homer. To the WPA graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Yep. Beltran’s homer clocked in at +0.84 WPA, which is off the charts. It was not only the team’s biggest hit of the season, it was the biggest Yankees’ hit (by WPA!) since Jason Giambi hit this walk-off homer against B.J. Ryan in June 2008. That video didn’t work for the longest time and MLB.com finally fixed it. I’m so happy. That one registered +0.89 WPA, which is also nuts. Between Young and Beltran, the Yankees received two of their biggest hits of the last seven years in 2014. Those homers than turn an imminent loss into a win don’t come around all that often.

Categories : Offense
Comments (72)
Oct
14

Tuesday Night Open Thread

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Here is your open thread for the evening. The Giants and Cardinals are wrapping up Game Three of the NLCS at this very moment (on FOX Sports 1), and later tonight the Royals and Orioles will play Game Three of the ALCS (8pm ET on TBS). The Knicks are playing a preseason game and all three hockey locals are playing regular season games. Talk about any of that stuff and more right here.

Categories : Open Thread
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Via Jon Heyman: The Astros have hired Trey Hillman to be their new bench coach. Hillman returned to the Yankees last offseason and spent this year as a special assistant in the player development system. He was a coach in the minor league system from 1990-2001 and was considered a candidate to replace the retiring VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman, but Heyman says Hillman wanted to get back in uniform and on the field. Between Newman’s retirement and both Hillman and Gordon Blakeley leaving, there’s been a lot of change in the front office these last few weeks.

Categories : Asides, Front Office
Comments (50)

Rays GM Andrew Friedman has left the team to take over as the Dodgers president of baseball operations, both teams announced. After years of building annoyingly good teams on a tiny budget, Friedman will now have the largest payroll in the game at his disposal. Of course, now he has actual expectations too. Team president Matt Silverman will replace Friedman and I have no doubt the Rays will continue to be a thorn in the Yankees’ side going forward. They weren’t a one-man show all these years.

Categories : Asides, News, Other Teams
Comments (128)
Refsnyder. (MiLB.com)

Refsnyder. (MiLB.com)

Baseball America continued their breakdown of the top 20 prospects in each minor league with the Double-A Eastern League today. As usual, the list is free but the scouting reports are subscriber only. Nationals OF Michael Taylor, Red Sox IF/OF Mookie Betts, and Indians SS Francisco Lindor claim the top three spots. C Gary Sanchez (No. 11) and 2B Rob Refsnyder (No. 13) represent the Yankees. RHP Luis Severino didn’t throw enough innings with Double-A Trenton to qualify for the list.

“On the field, Sanchez still draws raves for his bat, which shows the potential for both a high average and lots of power. He can get his hands in and turn on the inside pitch with power, but evaluators did note that he struggled with both breaking pitches and changeups this season,” said the scouting report, which also noted Sanchez has a top notch arm but still has a lot of work to do defensively. They also say his maturity continues to be an issue. Sanchez, 21, hit .270/.338/.406 (108 wRC+) with 13 homers in 110 games for Double-A Trenton this summer.

The 23-year-old Refsnyder hit .342/.385/.548 (159 wRC+) with 19 doubles and six homers in 60 games with the Thunder this year before being promoted to Triple-A Scranton. “Refsnyder drew raves from evaluators for his ability to hit line drives to all sectors and also for possessing premium bat speed. He’s got pop, but it’s more of the gap-to-gap, doubles variety than true home run power,” said the scouting report. It also says Refsnyder is “still crude technically” in the field but he has improved at second base.

The Eastern League list is probably the most impressive list I’ve seen so far. There was a ton of top talent in the league this summer. Severino didn’t qualify for the list and others like OF Tyler Austin, RHP Bryan Mitchell, and LHP Manny Banuelos simply didn’t make the cut. The last list relevant to the Yankees is the Triple-A International League, which is due out tomorrow or the next day. The RailRiders were devoid of prospects for most of the summer. Refsnyder should make the list but others like RHP Shane Greene and C John Ryan Murphy will probably fall short.

Other League Top 20s: High-A Florida State League, Low-A South Atlantic League, Short Season NY-Penn League, Rookie Gulf Coast League.

Categories : Minors
Comments (97)
(Presswire)

(Presswire)

The Yankees re-signed GM Brian Cashman but fired both hitting coach Kevin Long and first base coach Mick Kelleher late last week. The rest of the coaching will remain though there’s a possibility they will be shifted around into new roles. We’ll just have to wait and see. The dust is still settling following those moves, and here are some random thoughts for the time being.

1. I’m going to start with Kelleher because this will be short and, frankly, I have no idea what’s going here so I’m not even going to pretend to try to understand this move. What does the first base coach do anyway? He keeps track of the pitcher’s time to the plate and the catcher’s pop time, and … holds onto Brett Gardner‘s oven mitt thing in case he reaches base? Outside of Davey Lopes, who turned the Phillies (2007-10) and now the Dodgers (2011-present) into elite base-running teams, I couldn’t even name any first base coaches around the league. I’m much more interested in Cashman’s “global perspective” comment — he gave that quote after being asked about replacing Kelleher — than the actual decision to let Kelleher go. What could that comment mean? I can understand targeting players with marquee value and stuff like that, but coaches? Do they want a Japanese-speaking coach? Another Spanish-speaking coach? Does Cashman simply mean they want a more well-rounded coach? This whole first base coach thing fascinates me. I’m oddly looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

2. I don’t think there is any way we can accurately evaluate coaches as fans. The only tangible decision a coach makes that we actually see is the third base coach sending runners. That’s all. Yeah, we see the pitching coach walk to the mound, but who knows what he’s saying? Just about every task a coach performs happens behind the scenes and we don’t have access to that stuff. Even if we did, I’m pretty confident in saying we still wouldn’t be able evaluate it properly. Was Long the reason the offense underperformed so much this year? Maybe. It’s very possible. I happen to think giving nearly 1,800 plate appearances to Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, Alfonso Soriano, and Stephen Drew was a much bigger problem than Mark Teixeira being unable to beat the shift a few dozen times. Those five guys accounted for almost 30% of the team’s plate appearances in 2014. Did you know that? That’s a lot. And let’s not ignore the obvious here. It’s not like Long was handed the script to Breaking Bad and came back with The Chevy Chase Show. They had a great offense under his watch from 2007-12 and a not so great offense once the personnel changed in 2013-14. He didn’t have much to work with the last two years. Anyway, Long has been scapegoated — he was a goner as soon as Cashman re-signed, someone had to take the fall — and at this point many so many people have decided he was the problem that there’s no way to discuss this move objectively.

3. Despite George Steinbrenner‘s very famous hirings and firings (and occasional re-hirings and re-firings), scapegoating coaches is not something the Yankees have done all that much in recent years because they simply haven’t had to. People get fired when things go bad and and awful lot has done right for the Yankees over the last 20 years or so. Whenever they have changed coaches, it was usually because someone left for a job elsewhere, like Willie Randolph (third base coach to bench coach to Mets manager), Lee Mazzilli (first base coach to Orioles manager), and Don Mattingly (hitting coach to bench coach to Dodgers bench coach). Aside from canning pitching Dave Eiland a few years ago — that seemed to have more to do with off-the-field problems than anything — and replacing the awful Bobby Meacham as third base coach in 2008, getting rid of Long is the first time the Yankees have let a coach go for team performance reasons since before Joe Torre was hired. The Yankees will hire someone to replace Long and a bunch of people will inevitably praise the hiring when, really, no one will know nothing about anything. Remember how great the Orioles looked when they hired Leo Mazzone away from the Braves? Same idea. Other teams do this stuff all the time but a whole generation of Yankees fans will experience it for the first time.

Kelleher. Trust me. (Presswire)

Kelleher. Trust me. (Presswire)

4. Thanks to these two moves as well and the imminent retirement of VP of Baseball Ops Mark Newman and defection of senior advisor Gordon Blakeley, the Yankees are undergoing quite a bit of administrative change this winter. There’s also talk there will both other changes in the player development system aside from Newman, with a few other long-time executives on the hot seat. The player development issues have been going on for a while — the Yankees do produce a few useful arms and trade chips each year, but at this point they need more than role players, they need some impact players — and it’s time for a change there even though we don’t really know who is really responsible for what. As fans, all we know is the system isn’t producing enough. We don’t know why. Are they drafting the wrong players? Do their hitting instructors stink? Do they not spend enough time teaching changeups? Who in the world knows. But there is a lot of change going on in the front office and on the coaching staff this winter, and while we can’t really know how much these guys are to blame, I’m glad to see some changes are being made. The status quo wasn’t working.

5. One thing that won’t change is Cashman. I’m not at all surprised he’s coming back but I also thought the chances of a GM change were higher this year than they have been at any other point in his tenure. It wouldn’t have been surprised me at all if the Yankees didn’t retain him or if he left on his own. I’m fine with Cashman staying because a) I do believe he knows the team needs to get younger before they can get back to being a perennial contender, b) he consistently comes out ahead in trades, and c) his loyalty to the Yankees is unwavering. I never worry he’ll make a rash, knee-jerk decision in an effort to save his job. There are a lot of GMs out there looking out more for themselves than their teams. I think Cashman knows what needs to happen. He just hasn’t been able to put it into motion for whatever reason. I think this will be his last GM contract with the team — it’s a coincidence Cashman’s and Joe Girardi‘s current contracts expire at the same time (Cashman’s been signing three-year deals for 15 years now), but it will make for a mighty interesting 2017-18 offseason — regardless of whether things go good or bad. Then again, I’m pretty sure I said the same thing three years ago.

Categories : Musings
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