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2018 Draft Prospect Profile: Blaine Knight

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Blaine Knight | RHP

Background
Knight, 21, grew up outside Little Rock, and he wound up at Arkansas after going undrafted out of high school. He turned down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore last year — Knight was considered a potential second round pick but slipped to the 29th round due to signability concerns — and, so far this spring, he has a 2.78 ERA with an 86/21 K/BB in 87 innings.

Scouting Report
At 6-foot-3 and 170 lbs., Knight is lanky and the rare college pitcher with projection. His arm is lightning quick and he sits 90-93 mph with his high spin fastball and touches 95 mph. I have no doubt some teams are looking at his quick arm and skinny frame, and thinking Knight could be a consistent mid-90s guy once he gets under pro instruction and adds some muscle. His cutter/slider hybrid, curveball, and changeup are all quality pitches. Knight is extremely athletic and he repeats his delivery well, allowing him to throw strikes consistently. Put it all together and you’ve got a very athletic right-hander with four pitches, good control, and above-average ability to spin the ball.

Miscellany
In their latest draft rankings Baseball America (subs. req’d) had Knight as the 36th best prospect in the draft class. Keith Law (subs. req’d) had him 41st and MLB.com has him 48th. The Yankees hold the 23rd and 61st overall picks. There are no questions about his signability this year, so the biggest knock on Knight is his size and associated concerns about his ability to hold up under a starter’s workload. Everything else looks good though. Knight seems to be in that sweet spot where 23rd might be too high to take him, but he probably won’t be on the board for the 61st pick.

2018 Draft: Final Mock Drafts

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The three-day 2018 amateur draft begins tonight with a live MLB Network broadcast of the first 78 picks. The Yankees have two picks tonight (23rd and 61st). The draft broadcast will begin at 7pm ET. Here’s a mock draft update I put together for CBS and here are the final mock drafts of the year.

Keith Law’s mock draft v4.0

In his final mock draft today, Keith Law (subs. req’d) has the Tigers selecting Georgia Tech C Joey Bart, not Auburn RHP Casey Mize, with the No. 1 pick. Feels like we go through this every year. The team with the top pick is connected to one guy all spring, then suddenly they’re connected to someone else late, probably to put pressure on the first kid to take a more team-friendly signing bonus. Anyway, here is Law’s mock pick for the Yankees:

23. New York Yankees: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon (Mississippi) HS
I’ve heard them linked more to names who probably don’t fit well in the first round, like Grant Lavigne or Adam Hackenberg — guys who’d be perfect targets in the second.

Here are my write-ups on Ginn and Lavigne. The whole “linked more to names who probably don’t fit well in the first round” thing sounds scary, though that’s a common strategy in the draft pool era. Cut an underslot deal in the first round, then spend big on a someone who falls with your later pick. The Yankees did exactly that last year with Clarke Schmidt, whose stock was down following Tommy John surgery, and second rounder Matt Sauer. Would not surprise me at all to see the Yankees do something similar this year, albeit with a healthy player.

MLB.com’s mock draft v7.0

Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo put out a mock draft this morning, and they were nice enough to combine it into one post. They both still have Mize going to the Tigers with the No. 1 pick. Here are their mock first round selections for the Yankees:

Mayo: Ryan Rolison, LHP, Mississippi — It had mostly been hitters coming up in this spot, and the Yankees could go with Edwards or Lavigne. But Rolison was once thought to be a top 10-15 pick as a college lefty, and after struggling, has pitched much better down the stretch.
Callis: Grant Lavigne, 1B, Bedford (N.H.) HS — New York is all over high school position players such as Adams, Lavigne, Seigler and Turang.

Here are my write-ups on Lavigne, Jordyn Adams, Xavier Edwards, Anthony Seigler, and Brice Turang. Every time I think about the Yankees and their first round pick, I keep coming back to Turang. He came into the spring as arguably the top high school player in the draft class and a potential top five pick, but his stock has slipped due to an uneven spring. He was once a top draft prospect, he’s a toolsy up-the-middle guy, he’s from Southern California, and he’s the son of a former big leaguer (Brian Turang). He seems right up the Yankees’ alley. We’ll see.

Baseball America’s mock draft v6.0

The crew at Baseball America (subs. req’d) updated their mock draft this afternoon and they still have Mize going to the Tigers as well. That still seems most likely to me. Here’s their mock pick for the Yanks:

Noah Naylor, St. Joan of Arc Catholic SS, Mississauga, Ont. C
We have the Yankees taking the best bat available here, though Naylor does make sense at a number of spots in the teens as well. The Grant Lavigne (Bedford (N.H.) HS) noise around New York is real, but it seems to be an option at a spot later than No. 23 at this point. Prep bats like Turang, Casas and Seigler could also be fits if they last until this point.

Here are my write-ups on Naylor, Lavigne, Turang, Seigler, and Triston Casas. Naylor’s grown on me this spring. I kinda ignored him because I’m not a big believer in his older brother — Josh Naylor was the 12th overall pick in 2015 and is a lumbering first-base only masher — but Noah isn’t the same type of player. He’s very athletic with a chance to stay behind the plate, and his hit tool is pretty advanced.

2018 Draft Prospect Profile: Jordyn Adams

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Jordyn Adams | OF

Background
The 18-year-old Adams plays both baseball and football at Green Hope High School in Raleigh. He’s a top wide receiver recruit committed to play football at North Carolina, where his father is on the coaching staff. After a tough summer showcase circuit last year, Adams improved his draft stock greatly with a standout showing at the National High School Invitational this spring.

Scouting Report
Adams is very much a raw tools over baseball skills prospect right now. He’s listed at 6-foot-2 and 175 lbs. and he’s an electric athlete with top of the line speed. That speed serves him well both on the bases and in center field. Adams is a right-handed hitter with good bat speed and some power, and his approach is better than you’d expect for a kid who’s yet to dedicate himself to baseball full-time. The big drawback here is that Adams is so very raw on a baseball field. His swing mechanics need to be ironed out — Adams uses a big leg kick that slows him down sometimes — and his outfield reads and routes are unrefined. It’s not quite fair to say he’s a football player who has to learn how to play baseball, but it’s close. Adams has tremendous natural ability but must still develop a feel for the game.

Miscellany
Because he’s so raw, the various scouting publications all rank Adams outside the first round. MLB.com ranks him as the 37th best prospect in the draft class while Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranks him 45th and Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranks him 50th. The Yankees hold the 23rd pick. Despite those rankings, Adams is projected to go in the first round at the moment — he’s been connected to the Yankees in several mock drafts — and it’s expected to take a significant overslot bonus to keep him away from UNC. The Yankees have had some success turning raw multi-sport prep athletes into legitimate MLB prospects (Austin Jackson and Dustin Fowler, most notably), and we know they love high-end tools, so Adams does fit their usual profile.

2018 Draft Prospect Profile: J.T Ginn

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J.T. Ginn | RHP

Background
Ginn, who turned 19 last month, attends Brandon High School outside Jackson, Mississippi. He hit 16 home runs last spring, second most in the country, and pitched out of the bullpen earlier this year so he could set the state saves record. Ginn hit .419/.624/.918 with nine home runs in 30 games this year while throwing 39.1 innings with a 0.36 ERA and a 78/9 K/BB. He’s committed to Mississippi State, where he should get a chance to be a two-way player.

Scouting Report
Despite his offensive exploits, Ginn’s future lies on the mound and he offers one of the best two-pitch mixes in the draft class. His fastball sits 92-99 mph and runs back in on right-handed hitters, and his slider is a wipeout mid-80s offering. Ginn also throws a changeup and a curveball. The former is a good pitch by high school standards. The latter isn’t very good and probably a pitch he’ll stop throwing in pro ball so he can focus on the slider. He’s also a good athlete who doesn’t have much trouble throwing strikes. There are three knocks on Ginn. One, he is one of the oldest high schoolers in draft class, and 19-year-old high school draftees don’t have the best track record in pro ball. Two, he looks to be two or three inches shorter than his listed size of 6-foot-2 and 199 lbs. And three, Ginn has a high-effort delivery. He repeats it and it doesn’t hinder his command, but that 92-99 mph heater and mid-80s slider don’t come out of his hand easily, and some think he’s destined for a relief role long-term.

Miscellany
In their latest rankings MLB.com, Keith Law (subs. req’d), and Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Ginn as the 33rd, 38th, and 39th best prospect in the draft class, respectively. The Yankees hold the 23rd overall pick and, for what it’s worth, they’ve been connected to Ginn in a recent mock draft. In my amateur opinion Ginn seems like a potential target for team looking to cut an underslot deal with their first round pick so they can spend big on a top talent that falls later in the draft. He has first round stuff but not a first round delivery, and his age and size complicate things. At the end of the day though, mid-to-upper-90s gas and an out-pitch slider are mid-to-upper-90s gas and an out-pitch slider. Hard to ignore that.

Saturday Links: All-Star Game, DSL Prospects, Mock Drafts

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Judge’ll be at the All-Star Game again. (Mark Brown/Getty)

Weather permitting, the Yankees and Orioles will continue their impromptu three-game series with the middle game this afternoon. It’s a scheduled 4pm ET start but there is rain in the forecast. We’ll see how it goes. Here are some links and notes to check out in the meantime.

All-Star Game voting opens

Fan voting for the 2018 All-Star Game starters is officially underway. The ballot was released much later than usual this year — voting is online only now, so MLB didn’t have to print paper ballots in advance — which is good. It means guys like Gleyber Torres and Ronald Acuna are included on the ballot. In years past, the ballot would’ve been released before they were called up. Anyway, here’s the ballot. Go vote for the Yankees a few hundred times.

At the moment, I see the Yankees having four All-Stars: Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Aroldis Chapman, and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez’s numbers are a little un-Sanchez-like right now, though a) I expect them to come up these next few weeks, and b) the AL catching crop is a wasteland. There’s Sanchez, Salvador Perez, and … Wilson Ramos? Yeah. Gary’s a shoo-in. The other three guys (Judge, Severino, Chapman) are obvious All-Stars. Torres could definitely force the issue these next few weeks and make it five Yankees at the All-Star Game.

Duran, Then among top DSL prospects

Earlier this week Ben Badler posted a list of the top 20 prospects in the Dominican Summer League (subs. req’d). It’s not a ranking. It’s an alphabetical list of the top prospects who played in the DSL last year. Two of the 20 prospects are Yankees: 2B Ezequiel Duran and RHP Juan Then. I wrote about Duran a few weeks ago. Here’s part of Badler’s blurb on Then:

Then’s velocity rose last year to 90-94 mph and he showed excellent fastball command for his age. He locates his fastball well to both sides of the plate and mixes in an advanced changeup that’s a potential plus pitch in the future. Then was able to pick apart hitters with his fastball so effectively that there were starts he didn’t use his curveball until later in the game. It’s still an inconsistent pitch that he will need to tighten up to have success against better hitters.

The Yankees acquired Then from the Mariners in the Nick Rumbelow trade back in November. He’s already started popping up in organizational top 30 prospects lists — MLB.com ranks him 23rd in the system and Baseball America had him 17th in their 2018 Prospect Handbook — and he’ll join my top 30 list soon. The farm system is on the way down now due to graduations and trades. Guys like Duran, Then, Everson Pereira, and Ronny Rojas are the next wave.

Baseball America’s mock draft v5.0

The draft is two days away now, and yesterday Baseball America (subs. req’d) released their latest mock draft. Auburn RHP Casey Mize is still projected to go first overall to the Tigers. The Yankees hold the 23rd overall pick. Here is Baseball America’s mock selection:

23. SS Brice Turang, Santiago HS, Corona, Calif.
This is a similar situation with (Ethan) Hankins, three spots ahead. Turang would have been out of the question this far down the board prior to the season, but scouts weren’t thrilled with how he hit this spring. The Yankees seem to prefer a bat, and Turang profiles better than Triston Casas given his likelihood of sticking at shortstop. Scouting Director Damon Oppenheimer is one of many who’s been getting a late look at Adams as well.

Here are my write-ups on Turang and Casas. Adams is North Carolina HS OF Jordyn Adams, who I have not yet profiled. As for Turang, a top Southern California prospect who slips is certainly a good bet for the Yankees. They’ve been there, done that a few times (Gerrit Cole and Blake Rutherford, most notably). More importantly, the Yankees remain connected to position players moreso than pitchers. That’s been a constant these last few weeks.

FanGraphs mock draft v3.0

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel released their latest mock draft yesterday as well, and they went really big. They covered the first round, the supplemental first round, Competitive Balance Round A, and the second round. Seventy-eight picks total. Here is their mock first round selection for the Yanks:

23. New York Yankees – Anthony Seigler, C, Cartersville HS (GA)
The Yankees have been heavily tied to Virginia lefty Daniel Lynch and Seigler at this pick, along with New Hampshire prep first baseman Grant Lavigne at this pick and their second pick, if he gets there. In the event he doesn’t, there’s buzz that Virginia prep catcher Adam Hackenberg, who has a significant seven-figure asking price, would be a candidate.

Longenhagen and McDaniel have the Yankees selecting Lavigne with their second round pick (61st overall). Here are my write-ups on Seigler, Lynch, and Lavigne. I really like Seigler — switch-hitting (and switch-throwing!) catchers with a good all-around game are my jam — and the Yankees are very thin at catcher in the farm system, though you can’t draft for need in the first round. It’s too difficult to project needs two or three or four years down the line. Just take the best player. Anyway, the Yankees are once again connected to bats. You know what that means, right? Get ready for a pitcher Monday.

2018 Draft Prospect Profile: Sean Hjelle

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Sean Hjelle | RHP

Background

Hjelle, 21 as of a few weeks ago, was born and raised in Minnesota. He was undrafted out of high school, and headed to the University of Kentucky to ply his craft. He has done quite well for himself as a Wildcat, winning the SEC Pitcher of the Year for the 2017 season, and earning preseason All-American status from most every publication heading into this season. He’s currently a junior.

Scouting Report

Whether or not you clicked the video above, it’s worth repeating the simple fact that Hjelle is a veritable giant, checking in at 6’11”. If he does reach the majors, that would make him the tallest player in the history of the league, alongside Jon Rauch. He’s also something of a beanpole, tipping the scales at between 215 and 225 pounds, depending upon the source. And that represents a fair amount of weight gain from his high school days, when he was a svelte 190.

Despite his build, Hjelle is not an overpowering pitcher – at least in terms of velocity. His fastball sits in the low-90s, peaking around 97 MPH; it does have a bit of run to it, though, and his height and release point help it play up despite its modest heat. And, given his height and potential to add good weight, there’s some room for projection. Hjelle’s best pitch is a knee-buckling knuckle-curve in the low-80s, which is a true swing-and-miss offering when he’s on top of it, and his change-up has flashed above-average in spurts. He also throws a slider, but it’s clearly his fourth pitch at this point in time.

The primary selling point here is his command. Hjelle has garnered praise for his ability to locate all of his pitches, and that is largely attributed to his clean, repeatable delivery – and that’s not a statement that is often made about pitchers of such great heights.

Miscellany

Hjelle is largely viewed as a late first-round or early second-round pick. His ranks on draft boards include:

The Yankees have the 23rd and 61st picks, so he could potentially be in-play with both selections. The Yankees aren’t the only team that’s in love with tall, projectable pitchers, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was taken a bit earlier than those rankings would suggest, and I’d be downright shocked if he was available when they came up a second time.

2018 Draft Prospect Profile: Grayson Rodriguez

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Grayson Rodriguez | RHP

Background

Rodriguez is an 18-year-old senior at Central Heights HS in Nacogdoches, Texas. It’s a relatively small school, with an enrollment of just over 300 inclusive of grades nine through twelve, and just two players have been drafted out of the school – Trey Haley in the 2nd round of the 2008 draft, and Dane Phillips in the 49th round of the 2009 draft (and he chose to go to college instead).

Scouting Report

Checking in at 6’5″ and between 230 and 240 pounds, Rodriguez has the look of a Yankees pitcher. He’s a tall, thick, and imposing figure on the mound, and he has the powerful fastball to back that up, boasting a low-to-mid 90s two-seamer (and flirting with triple digits). Rodriguez’s primary off-speed weapon is a mid-70s curveball with tremendous break, but he also throws a low-80s slider that shows some promise. As is the case with most high school pitchers, his change-up falls somewhere between a work-in-progress and a show-me pitch, and his control is a step or two ahead of his command.

It’s worth noting here that Rodriguez re-dedicated himself to the sport over the winter, and reportedly swapped out a good bit of fat for muscle. In addition to showcasing far more athleticism than he had in the past, Rodriguez added a tick or two to his fastball, leading most every scouting outlet to note that he looks and performs like an entirely new pitcher.

Miscellany

Rodriguez has slowly but surely climbed the various draft rankings this spring, and is seemingly a lock for the first-round. His ranks include:

The Yankees pick 23rd, so there’s a decent chance that he’ll be available when they’re on the clock (though, Jim Callis could see him going as high as 10th). Rodriguez is committed to Texas A&M, which is a strong college program – but, considering his current stock, it seems as though he’s poised to earn a massive payday, so I’m sure that commitment will be tested.