We always hear that trying to predict the Major League Baseball draft is nothing more than guesswork, especially anytime before June 1st. However, once you get down to draft day, trying to project picks isn’t a totally futile exercise since we then know which teams are onto which players. Plus there’s all that stuff about knowing who’s healthy, who has performed well, who has slumped and so on.

I figured I’d take a look at the final mock drafts put out there by some of the most notable analysts on draft day to see who did the best job of predicting the picks. Here are the results, with the overall pick number is in parenthesis:

Jim Callis, Baseball America [link and link]
Total Correct Picks: 10
Correct Picks: Stephen Strasburg (1), Dustin Ackley (2), Donovan Tate (3), Tony Sanchez (4), Drew Storen (10), Chad James (18) Jiovanni Mier (21), Slade Heathcott (29), Brett Jackson (31), Tim Wheeler (32)

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus [link]
Total Correct Picks: 6
Correct Picks: Strasburg (1), Ackley (2), Tate (3), Zack Wheeler (6), Bobby Borchering (16), Heathcott (29)

Keith Law, ESPN [link]
Total Correct Picks: 12
Correct Picks: Strasburg (1), Ackley (2), Tate (3), Tony Sanchez (4), Jacob Turner (9), Borchering (16), James (18), Chad Jenkins (20), Mier (21), Mike Trout (25), Heathcott (29), Wheeler (32)

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com [link]
Total Correct Picks: 8
Correct Picks: Strasburg (1), Ackley (2), Tate (3), Tony Sanchez (4), Mike Minor (7), Storen (10), Grant Green (13), James (18)

Even though Callis didn’t have the Pirates taking Tony Sanchez in his original post, he did update his mock four hours before the draft on BA’s Draft Blog to reflect the move, so I was kind and gave him credit for that. Obviously, Strasburg was a gimme at numbero uno, as was Sanchez at four considering his predraft deal. Florida grabbing Oklahoma prep righty Chad James 18th overall was expected as well, because scouting director Stan Meeks is from Oklahoma, as is staff ace and budding megastar Josh Johnson. James’ talent warranted being drafted at that spot, and all of the other stars aligned perfectly.

As you can see, KLaw had the most correct picks with twelve. However, correctly predicting the most picks doesn’t automatically mean someone had the best mock draft, because correctly calling later picks is way tougher than calling early round picks. So in order to weigh the later right picks better, I assigned a point value to each slot and just tallied up the points everyone got. The scoring system wasn’t anything fancy, one point for the first overall pick, two points for the second, three points for the third, and so on. Arbitrary? Yes. Better than nothing? Also yes. With a 32 picks in the first round, the maximum number of points is 528.

So tallying them all up, here’s what we got:

1. KLaw – 180 pts
2. Callis – 151 pts
3. Mayo – 58 pts
4. Goldstein – 57 pts

Heh, so it looks like we know who has the most reliable sources, no? Or at least who lucked out with the most guesses, anyway. KLaw walks away with wins in both the Total Correct Pick and Point Tally categories, therefore we shall crown him the Master of the Mock Draft. Something tells me he’d appreciate that.

After three long days and 1,521 selections, the 2009 MLB Draft came to an end ten days ago. Unlike previous years when the Yankees shot for the moon with their first pick and took a player who fell because of exorbitant bonus demands, this year they zeroed in on a target and drafted him even though there were sexier names left on the board. We heard plenty of rumblings that the Yanks were operating on a budget this year, but by the looks of it, the budget wasn’t restrictive at all. They still landed tons of promising players.

As fans, we keep looking back at the 2006 draft crop and expect that every year. The Yanks picked an incredible amount of talent that year, but in reality that haul was far more the exception than the norm. Four players from that class alone have reached the Bigs for the Yanks, while just five players reached the majors from the ‘03, ‘04 and ‘05 classes combined.

Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer stayed true to form this year and went hard after college players, especially on the mound. Take a quick gander at this graph showing the breakdown of the players he’s taken in his five drafts for the Yanks. Lots of college guys, huh? I prefer high school players, but there’s nothing wrong with going after college players as long as the goal isn’t to get a quick return on the investment.

Note: Getting back to the graph, very few high school first baseman are drafted because they’re already limited to the worst case position. Guys like Prince Fielder and Derrek Lee are rare birds. Second baseman usually aren’t drafted for similar reasons. Almost all big league second baseman are failed shortstops.

It remains to be seen what kind of impact this draft class will have for the Yankees, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a second to recap all the action. You can see all of the team’s picks here.

Best Prospects
The two best prospects the Yankees picked up in this year’s draft were their two first choices: CF Slade Heathcott and C JR Murphy. I profiled those two on draft day, so click the links to learn more about them. Aside from Heathcott and Murphy, the player with the best combination of present ability, upside, and probability is 14th rounder Graham Stoneburner. The righthander fell because he has extra leverage as a draft eligible sophomore, but also because he’s a bit on the small side at 6′-0″, 185 lbs. Featuring a power arm sporting a legit mid-90’s fastball with two good offspeed offerings and strong command, Stoneburner projects as mid-rotation starter or an elite reliever if things come together.

Read More→