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Mailbag: Zimmer, Severino, Judge, Sanchez, Buxton, Ohtani

April 6, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Ten questions in this week’s mailbag. Send any and all questions to RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com and I’ll answer as many as I can each week.

Andrew asks: Just saw KC DFA’ed Kyle Zimmer. Worth a shot for the last spot on the 40 man?

I think so, but this is one of those situations where I wouldn’t blame the Yankees (or any team) for passing. Zimmer is so very talented. He just can’t stay healthy. We’re not talking about minor nagging injuries either. He’s had serious arm problems. Zimmer threw a career high 108.1 innings in 2013 and was a consensus top 30 prospect in baseball at the time. Here’s what happened from 2014-17:

2014: 14.1 innings (biceps and lat)
2015: 64 innings (labrum and rotator cuff surgery)
2016: 5.2 innings (Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery)
2017: 36.2 innings (shoulder soreness)

The 26-year-old Zimmer also missed time earlier in his career with hamstring problems and surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. He made one appearance in Spring Training before being shut down with what the Royals called arm fatigue. They designated Zimmer for assignment at the end of camp to clear 40-man roster spot for someone else, and Maria Torres says they hope to retain him as a non-40-man player.

This is Zimmer’s final minor league option year, so if a team claims him on waivers, they can stash him in the minors and see what happens. In their 2018 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America ranked Zimmer as Kansas City’s 30th best prospect, and they might have the weakest system in baseball. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

His fastball velocity was down earlier in the (2017) season, but later it was back up to 94-97 mph. When right, his fastball has natural sinking action, and he gets good bite and 12-6 movement on a 77 mph curveball that grades as plus. But Zimmer’s stuff generally hasn’t been the same, and his consistency and ability to bounce back from appearances remains a big question.

Back in the day Zimmer had nasty, nasty stuff. Mid-to-upper-90s gas, knee-buckling curveball, and a quality slider and changeup as well. The injuries have taken some of that nastiness away. It’s a shame. Zimmer, the fifth overall pick in 2012 and older brother of Indians center fielder Bradley Zimmer, had a chance to be special.

The Yankees do have an open 40-man roster spot after losing Trayce Thompson yesterday, so roster space isn’t an issue. Like I said earlier though, I wouldn’t blame the Yankees or any other team for passing. The injury history is ugly and the stuff isn’t what it was a few years ago. There’s more name value here than on-field value.

Jacob asks: What do you think is up with Sevy’s near nonexistent use of his changeup so far? I understand not needing to use it much in starts where hitters can’t touch the fastball/slider, but it would be a bad situation if he lost the feel for his change against better offenses when he’ll need it.

Luis Severino averaged 14.5 changeups per start last year (13.3% of pitches thrown) and so far this year he’s thrown 13 total changeups in two starts (7.1%). I think part of it is the opposing lineups. The Blue Jays only had three left-handed batters in the lineup on Opening Day and the Rays had four in the lineup the other day, but guys like Joey Wendle and Mallex Smith aren’t going to make a pitcher work hard for outs, you know?

It’s worth noting Severino didn’t hit his stride with changeup until midseason last year. He had several starts with only six or seven changeups thrown early in the season. Severino threw 9.0% changeups in April and 9.6% changeups in May. It wasn’t until June that he got until into the 12%+ range.

I don’t really have an answer here. I agree Severino will need his changeup against better offenses, and it is a feel pitch, so if he doesn’t throw it regularly, he might need some time to get it back. It’s also two starts against crummy lineups that couldn’t handle the fastball and slider. Getting outs is the priority over maintaining feel for the changeup, I think. This is a #thingtowatch. My guess is this is just some early sample size noise and we’ll see more changeups from Severino as the season progresses.

Michael asks: When a player signs a one year contract, is it a season, or a calendar year? I assume the teams pay the player over a 12-month period, but is the player obligated to the team in any other way during the off season until a new deal is signed? Thanks. Love the site.

Players get paid during the regular season only. Not during Spring Training or the postseason. During the 186-day regular season only. I know CC Sabathia had it written into his original contract with the Yankees that he get paid year round rather than only during the regular season, but I don’t know of any other players who’ve done that.

When players sign a one-year contract, they sign for one Championship Season, which the Collective Bargaining Agreement defines as the regular season plus Spring Training and postseason duties. Once the World Series is over, the player has no obligation to the team. Technically they have no obligation before Spring Training either, though many agree to do winter caravan events or whatever. One-year contracts are a mid-February to early-November contract. They don’t cover a full calendar year.

Steve asks: Why do you think Judge and Sanchez have such a pronounced reverse platoon splits? They both have career numbers that are devastating against RHP and good not great numbers facing LHP.

I think this is small sample size noise more than anything. Here are their career splits going into last night’s game:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	BB%	K%	xwOBA
Judge vs. RHP	622	.285/.399/.620	166	49	15.6%	32.0%	.426
Judge vs. LHP	178	.214/.421/.450	136	8	25.3%	33.1%	.418
	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	BB%	K%	xwOBA
Sanchez vs. RHP	588	.289/.350/.558	139	39	7.0%	22.4%	.375
Sanchez vs. LHP	191	.240/.330/.551	130	15	12.0%	26.7%	.396

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are both very good hitters against left-handed pitchers. It just so happens they’ve been even better against right-handed pitchers so far in their relatively brief big league careers.

Expected wOBA, which is based on exit velocity and launch angle and things like that, suggests Judge and Gary have hit lefties pretty hard. Neither guy is at 200 career plate appearances against lefties and they’re both closing in on 200 career games. Give it some more time. Their splits will even out. I don’t see any reason to believe either guy will have long-term reverse splits.

Mark asks: Isn’t it time for Yankees management to publicly tell their fielders that they do not need to crash into walls or the stands in order to earn their “TrueYankee” status? In just a little over a year, we’ve seen Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Dustin Fowler, Aaron Judge and now Billy McKinney suffer injuries due to overly aggressive defensive attempts. A regular season out just isn’t worth the potential for weeks on the DL or, as was the case with Judge, weeks of performance-sapping pain. Thanks for all the great work you do.

Wednesday afternoon Judge pulled up and played a ball off the wall rather than attempt a leaping catch that would’ve sent him plowing into the wall and I was very happy to see that, especially after the shoulder woes. Fowler’s injury was a bit fluky because he didn’t hit the wall that hard, he just hit it in the wrong spot, at that electrical box. But the point stands. The Yankees have had a lot of outfielders suffer wall-related injuries since Opening Day last year. It’s getting annoying.

Teams will tell you they don’t want to take away a player’s aggressiveness. Asking a player to go against his instincts could lead to trouble. What if an outfielder races to make a catch, stops to avoid the wall, and tweaks his knee? I do think there’s a happy medium somewhere. Tell the outfielders to avoid crashing into the wall in lopsided games, like Judge the other day, or in Spring Training. I don’t think you can give a blanket Bobby Abreu style “don’t crash into the wall” edict. You want your players playing hard! But you want them playing smart too.

Peter asks: Does a manager have to go out to the mound to change pitchers? In an effort to save mound visits, could Boone just order the active pitcher off the mound via signal and have the new pitcher run in from the bullpen via telephone?

Pitching changes don’t count as mound visits. Only visits to talk things over with the pitcher count against the limit. Including pitching changes in the mount visit limit would be pretty silly. The rule would essentially limit teams to six pitching changes per game, which is a lot, but sometimes you need more. And each pitching change would eliminate the possibility of a mound conference to talk things over. Yes, the manager (or a coach) has to go to the mound to change pitchers. These pitching change visits do not count against each team’s mound visit limit.

Isaac asks: In your recent article where you discussed the Yankees ability to pull off a potential blockbuster at the deadline, you mainly mentioned pitching as a target. Do you think the Yankees would be able to pull off a blockbuster for Byron Buxton if the Twins start to tank? If not, during the offseason? Buxton is an elite defensive CF and controllable for a few years, even if his bat is very inconsistent. Thanks.

That would be amazing. I see no way this happens. The Twins aren’t going to tank. They have a lot of young talent and they spent some money in free agency to upgrade their roster. I expect them to be in the postseason race all year. Squinting my eyes, I could see that team winning 90 games this season. I really could.

Now, even if the Twins do tank, as unlikely as it may be, Buxton would presumably be untouchable. He’s the guy they’d want to build around. He’s only 24, he’s under control through 2021, he started to figure out how to hit last year (.300/.347/.546 for a 130 wRC+ in the second half), and he is absolutely unreal in center field. Teams tank to get young players like Buxton.

The defense alone makes Buxton a +3 WAR player. If he’s truly figured out how to hit, he’s a superstar. The Yankees do need a long-term center fielder — Aaron Hicks will be a free agent after next season and who knows whether Estevan Florial will work out — and Buxton would be as good a trade target as anyone in the game. The Twins wouldn’t be wrong to ask for Gleyber Torres and more. Never say never, but I just don’t see them making Buxton available.

Gai asks: What do you think Ohtani has to do as both a hitter and pitcher combined to be worthy of MVP? I’m not talking him having a Cy Young season that rivals guys like Sale, but a combination of above-average hitting and pitching to achieve an MVP-type season in total. Something like 2-3 WAR as a hitter and 4-5 WAR as a pitcher for a total of 6-7 WAR? I don’t know, just spitballing. Thoughts?

With any luck, Shohei Ohtani’s greatest accomplishment will be proving once and for all that Spring Training doesn’t mean a damn thing. Ohtani didn’t look good during Cactus League play, either at the plate or on the mound, then he went out firing 98 mph gas with a razor blade slider and a wipeout splitter in his first start, and taking Corey Kluber deep to the opposite field in his third DH start.

I think Ohtani is going to be lights out on the mound. The stuff is so good. I’m a little more skeptical about his ability to hit, mostly because he did swing-and-miss a lot in Japan (27.9 K% from 2015-17) and he’s going to see more high-end velocity here, but man I hope he makes it work. He’s so fun. Too bad he didn’t even listen to the Yankees’ pitch. His loss.

Anyway, getting to +2 WAR or +3 WAR as a DH is going to be real tough. Edwin Encarnacion hit .258/.377/.504 (132 wRC+) with 38 homers last year and only got to +2.5 WAR. It seems like the plan right now is to give Ohtani two DH games between starts — the Angels have a six-man rotation and he rests the day after a start and the two days before a start — so that’s what, maybe 60-65 DH games during the season? He might not get to 300 plate appearances.

Here’s the thing though: MVP is, to some degree, a narrative award. The guy with the best stats doesn’t always win (example: Jose Altuve over Judge last year). If Ohtani is a top 30-ish pitcher who socks 15-20 dingers as a part-time DH, and the Angels stay in the postseason hunt all year, he’s going to get a lot of MVP love I think. Dan Szymborski ran some projections before the season and the numbers were on par with Jacob deGrom on the mound and Evan Gattis at the plate. If he does that, he’ll be a serious MVP candidate.

Adam asks: I asked during the open chat last Friday how you felt about Boone using Chapman with a 5 run lead on opening day. You were fine with it, which at the time I agreed with. Here were are again, with a 5 run lead going into the 9th and Chappy’s coming in. If we’re going to use Chapman in more than just save situations, I’d prefer the other side of the equation, bringing him in when we’re down a run.

This question was sent in Wednesday, after Aroldis Chapman tossed a perfect ninth in the 7-2 win over the Rays. Chapman pitched Opening Day with a five-run lead because he was already warmed up when it was a four-run lead. Giancarlo Stanton then hit a homer to make it a five-run lead. Chapman was warm and he hadn’t pitched since the exhibition game at SunTrust Park on Monday, so might as well use him.

On Wednesday, Chapman pitched with a five-run lead because he needed work. He hadn’t pitched since Friday. Going more than four days between appearances is when you start to push it with Chapman, who’s really good, but can see his command come and go. This isn’t a video game where you can leave someone in the bullpen for a week, then bring him into a game and have him be effective every time. Chapman needed work Wednesday, so he pitched. That’s all it is. It’s not ideal, but neither is bringing a rusty closer into a close game.

Tamir asks: If you had to switch every Yankee starters position how would you most efficiently play them? Rules: 1) Outfielders cannot play the other outfield positions. 2) You are allowed to use the DH to your advantage. 3) The players must play positions they rarely/have never played.

Fun! And not as easy as I thought. I’d go with this defensive alignment:

Catcher: Brandon Drury (seems like someone who’d embrace the challenge)
First Base: Brett Gardner (lefty thrower can’t play other infield spots)
Second Base: Giancarlo Stanton (process of elimination)
Shortstop: Aaron Hicks (best athlete among the outfielders)
Third Base: Aaron Judge (feels like he has the quick twitch athleticism for third)
Left Field: Gary Sanchez (hiding the slow-footed catcher)
Center Field: Didi Gregorius (seems like a natural fit, no?)
Right Field: Neil Walker (process of elimination)
Designated Hitter: Tyler Wade (plays everywhere, so not really eligible for other positions)

For all intents and purposes, the rules say you have to play infielders in the outfield and outfielders in the infield. The Yankees only have one left-handed throwing outfielder (Gardner), which makes things easy. Having to move lefty throwers to third or short (or behind the plate!) would be suboptimal. Judge and Stanton on the infield would be a sight. Reaching down to field grounder after grounder when you’re 6-foot-7 doesn’t seem fun.

Orioles 5, Yankees 2: Bats rudely silenced by Andrew Cashner

April 5, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

That was a textbook “well, it’s just not their night” loss. Every team is going to win 50 games and lose 50 games each year. It’s what they do in the other 62 games that determines their fate. This is one of those 50 losses. The Yankees dropped Thursday night’s series opener 5-2 to the Orioles because the offense didn’t capitalize on some chances and their best reliever had an off-night. C’est la vie.

Tanaka And The Non-Fastballs
That’s what I’m going to call my baseball-themed ska band. In his second start of the season, Masahiro Tanaka pitched extremely well up until hanging a slider to Adam Jones in the seventh inning, a hanging slider Jones deposited into the left field seats for a go ahead two-run home run. The #obligatoryhomer came at an unfortunate time. So it goes.

Tanaka was marvelous prior to that, going into the seventh inning having allowed three hits in six shutout innings. He’d struck out seven. It should be noted Tanaka got some defensive help in the first inning, when a stellar set of relay throws on Jones’ double to left field nailed Trey Mancini at the plate to end the inning. Giancarlo Stanton retrieved the ball in the corner, got it in quickly, Didi Gregorius made a great relay throw to the plate, and Gary Sanchez slapped the tag on Mancini. The safe call was overturned on replay.

The final pitching line: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K on 93 pitches. Tanaka was better than the line would leave you to believe. The most interesting number from Tanaka’s start: 18. That’s how many fastballs he threw. In the second half last year he scaled back big time on the heater because it was getting hit so much. Instead he focused on his secondary pitches and he turned his season around. Here is Thursday’s pitch breakdown:

Splitter: 37 (39.8% of pitches thrown)
Slider: 37 (39.8%)
Four-seamer: 15 (16.1%)
Two-seamer: 3 (3.2%)
Curveball: 1 (1.1%)

Two starts into the season Tanaka has thrown 34 fastballs (28 four-seamers and six two-seamers) and 139 non-fastballs. Tanaka is taking the whole “pitch backwards” thing to the extreme, and hey, it’s working. He was good down the stretch last year, lights out in the postseason, and very good overall through two starts this season. Tanaka’s crafty enough and his slider and splitter are good enough to make this work. Not every pitcher could pull this off.

Four Not Timely Hits
The Yankees had 12 total baserunners but only four hits Thursday night, which isn’t great. On the bright side, Aaron Judge is still pounding away on Orioles pitching. He opened the scoring with an opposite field solo home run off Andrew Cashner in the sixth inning. The Yankees hit a few balls that looked good off the bat before dying in the cold air earlier in the game. That Judge homer sailed out.

The other three hits: Tyler Wade’s hustle double in the third, Gregorius’ double to right in the seventh, and Neil Walker’s single to drive in Gregorius in the seventh. The Yankees did put seven men on base in three innings against Baltimore’s bullpen, so it’s not like they went down quietly. They just couldn’t take advantage of their opportunities. Miguel Andujar popped up with two on and two outs in the seventh, Walker tapped back to the pitcher with two outs and the bases loaded in the eighth, and Brett Gardner struck out to end the game with the tying run on deck.

Let’s highlight some positives on offense, shall we? Gardner saw 30 pitches in five plate appearances. Judge hit his second homer in as many days. Gregorius drew two more walks to bring his season total to five. He drew his fifth walk in his 18th game last year. Didi has only struck out twice too. Walker had a single and a walk. Wade reached base three times and has reached base five times in eight plate appearances on the homestand.

But yeah, four hits aren’t going to cut it. Stanton took an 0-for-4 and Sanchez went 0-for-3 with a hit-by-pitch. Gary’s defense has looked really good this year! He’s also hitting .077/.111/.231 (-15 wRC+) in the early going. I blame all of you who said he needs to work on his defense for his slow start at the plate. And despite all the prolonged at-bats, Gardner is off to a .172/.250/.276 (50 wRC+) start. Judge and Didi can’t do it alone. The Yankees need those other guys to wake up.

More Death By Bullpen
The bullpen has allowed runs in six of seven games so far this year. And even in the one, the bullpen allowed an inherited runner to score, so they were responsible for a run even though no reliever was charged with a run. Anyway, on Thursday, Chad Green had his first ugly outing of the new season. He replaced Tanaka in the seventh and went single, double, strikeout, single, strikeout to effectively put the game out of reach.

The double was a run-scoring double by Anthony Santander, allowing the runner Green inherited from Tanaka to score. The second single was a two-run single by Mancini. Green threw nearly as many sliders (nine) as fastballs (eleven), which is unusual for him. He never seemed all that comfortable on the mound. His location wasn’t good and he just wasn’t as crisp as usual. Maybe it was the cold. Maybe it was one of those nights. Whatever it was, the bullpen struggles continue. This is capital-A Annoying.

Leftovers
I love that Aaron Boone challenged Gardner’s non-hit-by-pitch in the eighth inning. Gardner said it hit him but the replay was inconclusive at best, and based on the dugout reaction, replay guy Brett Weber didn’t see enough evidence to overturn it. Boone challenged it anyway. Leadoff man down three? Give it a shot. You don’t get bonus points for unused challenges. The call stood and the at-bat continued.

Am I allowed to say Dellin Betances looks a lot better than he did last last season? He did walk a batter on four pitches in his inning in this game, but he struck out three and got a miss on five of six swings. Even with the walk tonight, Dellin seems to be around the plate more often than late last year, and his stuff looks firmer. Encouraging.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Here are the game’s box score and video highlights, and here are the updated standings. Don’t miss our Bullpen Workload page. Here’s the loss probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
Same two teams Friday night at Yankee Stadium. That’s a regular 7:05pm ET start. CC Sabathia and Kevin Gausman are the scheduled starting pitchers.

DotF: Florial triples in Tampa’s Opening Day win

April 5, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

At long last, the 2018 minor league season is underway. Three of the four full season affiliates opened their 144-game schedule this evening. Here are some notes before we get to the games:

In case you missed it last night, here are the preliminary Opening Day lineups for the full season affiliates. High-A Tampa announced their roster this morning, so the post has been updated.
According to Mat t E ddy, the Yankees have re-signed C Kellin Deglan, loaned RHP Dallas Martinez to a Mexican League team, and released LHP Woody Bryson, RHP Simon De La Rosa, LHP Tyler Honahan, RHP Jonathan Padilla, RHP David Palladino, RHP Josh Roeder, RHP Mark Seyler, and RHP Daris Vargas. De La Rosa was a sleeper once upon a time. Alas.
Two stray links: Keith Law (subs. req’d) lists Double-A Trenton as one of the most stacked teams in the minors this year, and Mike Rosenbaum has a piece on the club’s lower level pitching prospects, with info from minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barres RailRiders begin their regular season tomorrow. RHP Chance Adams will be on the mound.

Double-A Trenton Thunder (5-2 win over Richmond) as per Opening Day tradition, here are the full lineups

2B Gosuke Katoh: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 K
1B Chris Gittens: 1-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 2 K — had a 27.7% strikeout rate in Single-A the last two years, so I’m curious to see how he handles Double-A
LF Trey Amburgey: 2-4, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB — hit the first homer in the system this year
3B Billy Fleming: 1-4, 1 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K
CF Rashad Crawford: 1-4, 2 K, 1 E (fielding)
RF Jhalan Jackson: 1-3, 1 R, 1 3B, 1 BB, 2 K
DH Bruce Caldwell: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 K
C Jorge Saez: 1-4, 1 RBI, 3 K
SS Vince Conde: 0-3, 1 K, 1 E (throwing)
RHP Domingo Acevedo: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 3/2 GB/FB — 46 of 80 pitches were strikes (58%)
RHP Erik Swanson: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 2/2 GB/FB — 32 of 51 pitches were strikes (63%)

[Read more…]

Game Seven: Tanaka Thursday

April 5, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Six games into the new season, the Yankees have four wins and are basically one bad David Robertson pitch away from having five wins. They’re also averaging 5.83 runs per game, the fifth best rate in baseball in the early going. Masahiro Tanaka looked pretty excellent in his 2018 debut last week and he’ll be on the mound again tonight.

The Orioles are in the Bronx for the first of four this evening. The Yankees scored 154 runs against the O’s last season — 154 runs! — which is the most runs any team has scored against any other team in a single season in baseball history. That includes 122 runs in ten games at Yankee Stadium. Good gravy. And now the Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton. I could go for a four-game series with four blowout wins. How about you? Here are the lineups.

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. SS Didi Gregorius
5. C Gary Sanchez
6. 1B Neil Walker
7. DH Tyler Austin
8. 2B Tyler Wade
9. 3B Miguel Andujar (first MLB start in the field)

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Baltimore Orioles
1. LF Trey Mancini
2. SS Manny Machado
3. 2B Jonathan Schoop
4. CF Adam Jones
5. 1B Chris Davis
6. 3B Tim Beckham
7. DH Colby Rasmus
8. RF Anthony Santander
9. C Chance Sisco

RHP Andrew Cashner

It is cold, cloudy, and windy in the Bronx this evening. Not great baseball weather, but what can do you. Today’s game will begin at 6:35pm ET — the Yankees are testing out some 6:35pm ET starts this month — and you can watch on WPIX, not YES. Enjoy the game.

Injury Updates: Clint Frazier (concussion) played in a simulated game today and is inching closer to playing in minor league games. “Things are finally starting to ramp up,” said Aaron Boone to Bryan Hoch … Brandon Drury is fine. Just a day off.

4/5 to 4/8 Series Preview: Baltimore Orioles

April 5, 2018 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees knocked the Orioles around last season, taking 12 of their 19 meetings and outscoring them by 66 runs. Their last meeting was in mid-September, when the Yankees took three of four games in the Bronx (and hung 34 runs on the Orioles pitching staff along the way). A few notes:

Aaron Judge obliterated the O’s pitchers in the first game, going 3-for-4 with two home runs and 6 RBI in a 13-5 victory. Those two homers gave him eleven against the O’s on the season, and they, unsurprisingly, decided to pitch around him for the rest of the series (he took five walks in 12 PA in the next three games).
Greg Bird homered in the second and third games of the series, raising his slugging percentage from a horrific .265 to a … slightly less horrific .318 in the process.
Didi Gregorius had himself a series, going 6-for-13 with 3 home runs and 8 RBI. And, thanks to a couple of sacrifice flies, he had an interesting slashline in those four games – .462/.438/1.154.
And, because it can’t all be fond memories, Ubaldo Jimenez returned to his pre-Baltimore form for one night only in the final game. He went 5 innings and allowed 3 hits, 1 run, and 1 walk, while striking out 10.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics wrap-up for more fun facts.

Injury Report

Zach Britton is still recovering from a ruptured Achilles, and won’t be back until sometime in June (if all goes according to plan). Mark Trumbo and Gabriel Ynoa are on the disabled list, as well, and neither is likely to be back for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Orioles are 1-5, and have been outscored by 20 runs thus far. That’s not great. However, it’s not all that unexpected either – PECOTA pegged them as a 69-93 team heading into the season, after all. Those projections did pre-date the acquisition of Alex Cobb, but his presence does not move the needle all that much for a team with so many holes; FiveThirtyEight, whose projections have Cobb on the Orioles, saw them as a 72-90 team. The Orioles have outperformed their projections several times on Buck Showalter’s watch, to be fair, but it feels like they are in for a long season.

The Lineup We Might See

Showalter showcased some outside of the box thinking in the first five games by batting Chris Davis leadoff each time out. And Davis has responded by slashing an unsightly .048/.167/.048 with 9 strikeouts in 24 plate appearances. Davis didn’t start yesterday, due to a combination of his performance and Dallas Keuchel starting for the Astros, and Showalter has been less than forthcoming about how the lineup will look going forward. This is the lineup that the Orioles were trotting out prior to yesterday:

Chris Davis, 1B
Manny Machado, SS
Jonathan Schoop, 2B
Adam Jones, CF
Trey Mancini, LF
Colby Rasmus, RF
Tim Beckham, 3B
Pedro Alvarez, DH
Caleb Joseph/Chance Sisco, C

Or, at least, that’s what we could be looking at with Messrs Tanaka and Gray on the mound. Showalter will probably shake things up against CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, likely with Tim Beckham hitting leadoff and Davis sitting in favor of J.D. Davis.

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (6:35 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Andrew Cashner

Cashner had the best season of his career in 2017, insofar as ERA+ (138) and bWAR (4.3) are concerned. He managed to prevent runs at a well above-average clip even as he made the move into an extreme hitters’ park in Texas, and it superficially appeared as though he turned the corner. And then you dig a bit deeper, and see the 4.61 FIP and .266 BABIP, and begin to understand why he wasn’t a more sought-after figure this off-season. And then you see his 4.6 K/9, a full 3.7 K/9 below league-average, and 3.5 BB/9, and snicker at the Orioles front office. Cashner gave up 5 runs in 5 innings in his first start for his new team, as the regression machine is in full effect.

Raw stuff has never really been an issue for Cashner. He shelved his slider last year, and now throws a low-t0-mid 90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a high-80s cutter, a mid-80s change-up, and a low-80s curve. His four-seamer and sinker have generally been his best pitches, as his command of the off-speed stuff comes and goes.

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

It appeared that Gausman had finally become the top-flight starter that many expected after 2016, a season in which he posted a 119 ERA+, 8.7 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 as a 26-year-old with great stuff. That wasn’t the case last year, as his ERA+ slipped to 93, and he walked an extra batter per nine. The Yankees had a great deal to do with that, though, pasting Gausman for a .374/.475/.566 slashline in five starts. If you remove those starts from his 2017, his ERA drops from 4.68 to 3.61, and you wonder just how much he must hate facing this team – and that was before they added Giancarlo Stanton.

Gausman is a three-pitch guy, working with a mid-90s four-seamer, a mid-80s splitter, and a low-80s slider. When his splitter’s splitting, he’s really hard to hit; when it’s not, he’s not.

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Chris Tillman

It isn’t hyperbole to say that Tillman was the worst starting pitcher in major league baseball last year. Among pitchers who threw at least 90 IP, he ranked last in ERA (7.84), last in FIP (6.93), last in K/BB (1.24), and last in fWAR (-1.0), and he allowed at least four earned runs in 11 of his 19 starts. He picked up where he left off in his first start of 2018, pitching to the following line: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K.

Tillman dabbles in six pitches in a low-90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s cutter, a low-80s slider, and a mid-80s curve. His velocity basically evaporated last season, though, as he lost a nearly over a MPH on his four-seamer, and nearly two on his sinker.

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Mike Wright Jr.

Wright was an up and down guy for the Orioles last year, pitching exclusively out of the bullpen in the majors. He posted shiny strikeout (10.1 per 9) and walk (2.5 per 9) rates in 25 big league innings, but his 5.76 ERA and 4.72 FIP left a great deal to be desired. He has proven to be homer-prone in his four partial seasons in the bigs, allowing 27 HR in 149.1 IP, and his 40.8% GB% means that there are lots of balls hit into the air.

Wright is predominantly a three-pitch pitcher, working with a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a low-90s sinker, and a mid-80s slider. He’ll also flash a change-up and a curve, but his usage on those two is all over the place.

The Bullpen

The Orioles bullpen has been a detriment through six games, pitching to a 5.73 ERA in 22 IP while blowing two saves and taking two losses. Brad Brach is handling the closing duties while Britton recuperates from surgery, and he had a blown save against the Twins on Opening Day, allowing 2 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs in 0.2 IP. Digging into the numbers of these players isn’t too useful at this point in time, though, given the small sample sizes. As it stands, Brach is the closer and Darren O’Day is the high-leverage guy.

Yankees Connection

Nestor Cortes spent five years in the Yankees organization, having been selected in the 38th round of the 2013 draft. He had a 2.08 ERA in 324.1 IP in the minors, and was lost to the Orioles in this offseason’s Rule 5 draft. He’s currently in the team’s bullpen, where he’s joined by Richard Bleier, who was a SWB shuttle guy in 2016. Bleier has a 2.01 ERA (217 ERA+) in 89.2 IP in the majors.

And, of course, there’s Buck Showalter.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Alex Cobb may be ready to join the Orioles rotation as early as Monday, so Tillman and Wright may well be pitching for their jobs this weekend – and competition is always intriguing, for better or worse. And there’s always Machado’s defense.

Update: A’s claim Trayce Thompson off waivers from Yankees

April 5, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Thursday: And he’s gone. Thompson was claimed off waivers by the Athletics today, the Yankees announced. Aaron Boone said yesterday the Yankees were planning to send Thompson to Triple-A, and since he’s out of options, he has to clear waivers to go to down. The A’s claimed him when the Yankees tried to pass him through. I’m not sure why Oakland didn’t claim him the first time — they have a higher waiver priority than the Yankees — but whatever. At least now Trayce can room with Klay.

Tuesday: The Yankees have claimed outfielder Trayce Thompson off waivers from the Dodgers, the team announced. Ben Heller was transferred to the 60-day DL to clear a 40-man roster spot. No word on when Thompson will join the Yankees, though I imagine it’ll be soon.

Thompson, 27, hit .212/.269/363 (58 wRC+) with nine homers in 95 Triple-A games last season, and .122/.218/.265 (25 wRC+) in limited big league time. The right-handed hitter is a career .233/.310/.445 (105 wRC+) hitter in 452 big league plate appearances, including .236/.295/.458 (101 wRC+) against southpaws. Not much of a platoon split there.

The Yankees are currently without Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique), Aaron Hicks (intercostal), Billy McKinney (shoulder), and Clint Frazier (concussion), so they’re running short on outfielders. Thompson can play center field and he figures to be a fill-in fourth outfielder until guys get healthy.

The Dodgers designated Thompson, who is out of minor league options, for assignment at the end of Spring Training when he didn’t make the team. If you’re an NBA fan, he is Klay Thompson’s brother

Yankeemetrics: Hello, Bronx Bombers (April 2-4)

April 5, 2018 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

#Didi4MVP
The Yankees kicked off the Bronx portion of the 2018 schedule with a 11-4 rout of the Rays on Tuesday afternoon, thanks to an incredible performance by Didi Gregorius. It was their most runs scored in a home opener in nearly two decades, since a 12-3 win over the Tigers in 1999.

Before we stat-binge on Didi’s record-breaking day, let’s not forget to mention another stellar outing by a Yankee starter. Jordan Montgomery battled through five innings, allowing just one run while holding the Rays hitless in six at-bats with runners in scoring position. As Mike mentioned in the recap, the most notable thing about his start was the use of his changeup, which he said “was gone” last year.

Well, it looks like he found it in 2018. Of his 80 total pitches, 17 were changeups, a 21 percent usage rate that was well above last season’s average of 15 percent. And the results on those 17 changeups were encouraging.

He generated four whiffs — a 24 percent swinging strike rate that was much better than his 2017 numbers (15.3%) and the league average whiff rate on changeups (15.8%). Only two changeups were put in play, and both resulted in groundball outs. Stuff-wise, he got excellent drop on the pitch, averaging 7.2 inches of vertical movement, the lowest mark in any of his 30 MLB starts.

He also did a good job of keeping the pitch away from righties, painting the outside corner for a couple called strikes and getting those grounders on pitches down in the zone:

Now it’s time for the main event. Let’s unpack Sir Didi’s epic day – 4-for-4 with a walk, three runs scored, two homers, a double and eight RBI – a performance so noteworthy it deserves bullet points.

The eight RBI are the most ever by a Yankee shortstop in a game
Didi is the second player in MLB history with eight RBI in a game this early into the season (team game no. 5), joining Mike Schmidt in 1976 for the Phillies.
The only other MLB shortstops with at least eight RBI and four hits in a game were Miguel Tejada (2001 A’s) and Hall of Famer Travis Jackson (1923 Giants)
Two other Yankees have recorded at least eight RBI and four hits at Yankee Stadium: A-Rod on April 26, 2005 and Paul O’Neill on August 31, 1995.
Didi and Danny Tartabull (1992) are the lone Yankees to go 4-for-4 or better and drive in at least eight runs in a game

We also have a #FunFact Guest Yankeemetric from friend of the blog, Mark Simon, who notes that the Yankees are the only MLB franchise that has an eight-RBI game from each of the eight non-pitcher positions.

Catcher – Yogi Berra, Elston Howard
First baseman – Lou Gehrig
Second baseman – Tony Lazzeri
Shortstop – Didi Gregorius
Third baseman – Alex Rodriguez
Leftfield – George Selkirk
Centerfield – Joe DiMaggio, Bernie Williams
Rightfield – Selkirk, Tartabull, O’Neill

Didi’s numbers through five team games were video-game-like: 8-for-18 with four doubles, two doubles, a triple and a single (.444/.524/1.111).

He is one of six Yankees with at least 20 total bases in the team’s first five games, a list that also includes Alex Rodriguez (2007), Alfonso Soriano (2003), Mickey Mantle (1956), Lou Gehrig (1932) and Samuel Byrd (1932). And the only other Yankee with seven extra-base hits through five team games was A-Rod in that 2007 MVP-winning campaign.

Three times a charm
The Yankees completed the short two-game sweep of the Rays with another convincing win, 7-2, on Wednesday. They’ve now won 11 straight home series over the Rays, their longest such streak against any opponent at the current Yankee Stadium.

Murderers’ Row II had a spectacular debut, with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez each going deep in the same game for the first time this season. Each of them quickly erased any doubts about their recent “slumps” with one swing of the bat — in true Bronx Bomber fashion.

Judge entered the game with one extra-base hit in the first five games, and then in the fourth inning mashed a 419-foot homer to quiet the critics. By the way, last year Judge had one extra-base hit in the first five games of the season, and then hit his first homer in the sixth game. Sound familiar?

Stanton was coming off a historically awful home-opening game, when he went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. He was the first non-pitcher in franchise history to get at least five at-bats in a game at Yankee Stadium and strike out in every at-bat. He bounced back from that disaster by drilling a laser shot over the left-field fences in his first trip to the plate on Wednesday.

The ball left Stanton’s bat with an exit velocity of 117.9 mph and went an estimated 458 feet. Goodness gracious, I feel sorry for the baseballs. It was Stanton’s fourth home run that was hit that hard (117-plus mph) and that far (458-plus feet) since Statcast began tracking such things in 2015 — one more than the rest of MLB combined has hit over the last four seasons.

Sanchez had been in the deepest funk of the trio before digging into the batter’s box in the third inning, with just one hit in 20 plate appearances and hitless in his last 17 at-bats. He then crushed a towering moonshot to left, sending it 369 feet into the seats with a launch angle of 38 degrees. It was the third-shortest homer hit by Sanchez and tied for the highest launch angle he’s produced on any of his 54 career homers.

The trio of bombs from the middle-of-order guys overshadowed a fantastic effort on the mound by Luis Severino. The righty lived up to his ace status with an efficient and overpowering performance, throwing 7 1/3 innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts. Of the 22 outs he recorded, only two were in the outfield — a first-inning popfly in shallow right field (Torreyes Web Gem alert!) and a sixth-inning flyout to left — and the 13 outs he generated via groundballs were a career-high.