NY Yankees News, Information & Community

The Blue Jays are already selling and the Yankees should be after Justin Smoak

April 16, 2019 by Mike

Although the Yankees have 147 games remaining this year — their season is only 9.3% complete! — it already feels like they need some outside help. The injuries are mounting and, with CC Sabathia having returned over the weekend, it doesn’t seem like anyone is particularly close to coming back. The Yankees will be without several core players another few weeks.

April is typically way too early to consider trades, though things are different these days. There is a single July 31st trade deadline now and we are in baseball’s post-competitive era. Roughly one-third of the league is unabashedly tanking. Anything to improve amateur talent acquisition opportunities (part of it) and trim payroll (most of it) is encouraged and even celebrated in some circles.

The AL East rival Blue Jays are among those unapologetic tanking teams. Their pre-Vlad Guerrero Jr. lineup is inept — five times in 17 games this season they’ve been no-hit into the sixth inning — and the pitching staff beyond Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez is largely unrecognizable. Toronto is already selling off veterans:

March 27th: Traded Kendrys Morales to the A’s for Jesus Lopez and international bonus money.
April 2nd: Traded Kevin Pillar to the Giants for Derek Law, Alen Hansen, and Juan De Paula.

Law cleared waivers in February. Hansen was designated for assignment days prior to the trade. De Paula, who the Yankees sent to the Giants in the Andrew McCutchen trade, ranks 30th on MLB.com’s Blue Jays prospect list. Lopez is nowhere to be found on any prospect list. The Blue Jays saved $7.8M in those trades. That was their primary motivation.

It stands to reason the Blue Jays will trade more veterans in the coming weeks. Stroman could go, Sanchez could go, Ken Giles could go, Freddy Galvis could go, and Justin Smoak will very likely go. Smoak is an impending free agent and Toronto has a ready-made replacement in Rowdy Tellez. There’s no sense in keeping him, and that creates an opportunity for the Yankees, who could use a player like Smoak. Let’s talk it out.

1. He’s an upgrade over Greg Bird. Let’s be real here, the “better than Greg Bird” bar isn’t especially high these days. Bird is hitting .171/.293/.257 (58 wRC+) in the early going this season and he owns a .194/.287/.388 (80 wRC+) batting line in 522 plate appearances since Opening Day 2017. That is bad production for a defense first middle infielder. It is appalling for a bat only first baseman. That homer against Andrew Miller only goes so far.

By no means is Smoak a star. He is a solid player relative to his position who is a comfortably above-average hitter relative to the rest of the league. His last three seasons:

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%	wRC+ vs. RHP	wRC+ vs. LHP
2017	637	.270/.355/.529	133	38	20.1%	11.5%	125	162
2018	594	.242/.350/.457	121	25	26.3%	14.0%	136	91
2019	56	.256/.429/.442	149	2	17.9%	19.6%	185	89

Real talk: If Greg Bird had put up numbers like Smoak’s from 2017-18, he would be talked about as a cornerstone Yankee and an extension candidate. I know like 46.347% of you clicked over here saying to yourself “ewww no not Justin Smoak,” but it’s true. Bird would’ve been un-damn-touchable with Smoak’s numbers.

Bird has not put up anything particularly close to Justin Smoak numbers though. Smoak is a switch-hitter who is most effective on the heavy side of the platoon, and he’ll draw walks without an excessive strikeout rate. Last week he reminded everyone he can turn around a 99 mph fastball and hit it out to the deepest part of the ballpark.

That is a no joke home run. Smoak elevated a 99 mph fastball at the knees and parked it in dead center field. Could you even imagine Greg Bird putting a 99 mph fastball in play right now? I can’t, because he’s literally never done it at the MLB level. Statcast says Bird has made contact with a 99+ mph fastball once in the big leagues, and that was a foul ball in September 2015. Yeah.

Also, there’s a defensive component here. Neither Bird nor Luke Voit is even average defensively at first base. The various numbers (I prefer Inside Edge at first base) indicate Smoak is average-ish at first. Average-ish qualifies as an upgrade for the Yankees, perhaps even a considerable one. Consider the lineup possibilities:

Current Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Justin Smoak
4. DH Luke Voit
5. SS Gleyber Torres
6. 2B DJ LeMahieu
7. LF Clint Frazier
8. 3B Gio Urshela
9. C Austin Romine

Healthy Yankees
1. CF Aaron Hicks
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Giancarlo Stanton
4. 1B Justin Smoak
5. DH Luke Voit
6. C Gary Sanchez
7. SS Didi Gregorius
8. 3B Miguel Andujar
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

That “Healthy Yankees” lineup is almost certainly never going to happen, but a man can dream. The “Current Yankees” lineup though? Slotting in Smoak rather than Bird makes it look so much better. He fits in nicely between the two big righty bats, provides lineup balance as a switch-hitter, and oh yeah he actually provides some thump. That’s kind of a big deal. Bird to Triple-A and Smoak at first base is a clear multi-win upgrade.

2. He’s already familiar with the AL East. Is this is a reason to make a trade? Not necessarily, but it isn’t something to ignore either. This is Smoak’s fifth season with the Blue Jays (already?). He is an AL East veteran. He knows the ballparks and he knows the cities, and, most importantly, he knows the opposing pitchers. For the Yankees to get where they want to go this year, they’ll have to beat the Red Sox and Rays, and Smoak is familiar with those teams. That familiarity with the AL East could help his post-trade transition. It’s not nothing.

3. His contract is not onerous. Smoak reached some plate appearance salary escalators in his contract the last few years and will earn $8M this season. That’s all. The season is nearly three weeks old now and Smoak is still owed roughly $7.15M the rest of the way. Cot’s says the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll is at $226.7M right now, so they’re over the $226M second luxury tax tier. That $7.15M becomes $9.44M in real money when adding in the luxury tax.

Even then, the Yankees should be willing to add $9.44M to payroll in an effort to stay in the postseason race. The way things are going right now, I’m not sure they can expect to be within striking distance of the division title by time guys get healthy. The Yankees need help now. Not weeks from now. Also, the Yankees could get the Blue Jays to eat some money to make it work. They’ve done that with various trades in the recent past and could do it again. Point is, this is rental player with a reasonable salary. If Smoak doesn’t work for the Yankees financially, I’m not sure anyone will.

4. It shouldn’t cost much to get him. What other contending teams need a first baseman (or a DH)? I suppose the Athletics could get involved if Matt Olson’s recovery from hand surgery doesn’t go well. They already traded for Morales though, so probably not. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies? That’s pretty much it. The Blue Jays are likely hoping some contender gets hit with a first base injury to create a trade market for Smoak. The Yankees, if you haven’t noticed, have a need for him due to injuries.

What are the Blue Jays getting for Smoak beyond salary relief, realistically? Toronto is not getting anything close to a Paul Goldschmidt package for Smoak. Yonder Alonso was traded for a non-top-30 prospect over the winter. Steve Pearce was traded for a non-top-30 prospect last summer. C.J. Cron bounced around waivers over the winter. Smoak is a solid Major Leaguer, but I’m not sure the demand for first base only guys has ever been as low as it is right now.

The Yankees have pitching prospects in spades. They could put a Rule 5 Draft eligible 40-man roster bubble guy like Nick Nelson on the table, or a lower level arm like Juan Then or Rony Garcia, and make the Blue Jays say no. The alternative is continuing to pay Smoak while waiting (and hoping) for a market to develop, and possibly losing him for nothing as a free agent after the season. I think the price to get him would be very easy to swallow.

* * *

My guess is the Blue Jays are motivated to trade Smoak. The sooner they move him, the more money they save — trading Pillar and his $5.8M salary for minimal return tells you they consider no salary too small to dump — and it also opens up first base for Tellez. I imagine their rest-of-season plan is effectively a three-man first base/third base/DH rotation with Vlad Jr., Tellez, and Brandon Drury. Smoak’s not a long-term piece. Those guys are (or might be, at least).

Last year’s J.A. Happ trade shows the Yankees and Blue Jays can get together for a trade. There’s no outdated “oh no we can’t trade within the division!” logic in play here. We know the Yankees and Blue Jays will trade with one another because we saw them do it recently. One way or another, Smoak’s time in Toronto is coming to an end soon. The Yankees need help now and Smoak would be an upgrade on both sides of the ball at first base without breaking the bank. It fits.

DotF: Park, Ruta, and Gittens have big games in Trenton’s win

April 15, 2019 by Mike

Got some links to dump on you before we get to tonight’s game action:

Randy Miller spoke to Triple-A Scranton manager Jay Bell about several of his players. “(If) you can command the baseball, you’re going to be successful, and I think that’s all Chance needs to do. Just figure out how to put the ball where he wants it,” he said of RHP Chance Adams.
Ben Badler (subs. req’d) listed 12 low-profile international signees whose stock is on the rise. Two are Yankees: RHP Juan Carela and SS Carlos Verdecia. “Carela’s velocity spiked (from 86-89 mph) when he reached 96 mph at Dominican instructional league … he pairs it with a sharp-breaking curveball,” says the write-up. The Yankees gave Carela a $350,000 bonus last July.
Jon Schwartz has a nice story on RHP Tyler Johnson, last year’s 30th round pick. The Yankees made an exception to their hair policy so Johnson could grow his out and have it made into a wig for his mother, a cancer patient.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (6-5 win over Lehigh Valley in ten innings, walk-off style)

SS Thairo Estrada: 2-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 E (fielding) — 8-for-19 (.421) with a double and two homers in his last four games
DH Mike Ford: 0-5, 2 K
CF-RF Trey Amburgey: 1-4, 1 2B, 1 BB
RF-1B Ryan McBroom: 1-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — third straight game with a dinger
1B-2B Gosuke Katoh: 0-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K
LHP Nestor Cortes: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 4/4 GB/FB — 63 of 96 pitches were strikes (66%) … a rare dud
LHP Stephen Tarpley: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2 WP, 6/0 GB/FB — 26 of 46 pitches were strikes (57%) … kinda funny how, when a dude like this is in the big leagues, leaving him in to throw 30 pitches seems crazy, yet down here he’ll throw 40+ pitches on the regular

[Read more…]

Guest Post: River Ave Blues Appreciation, or Baseball Fatalism

April 15, 2019 by Mike

The following is guest post from Josh Fortunatus, a longtime RAB reader and a longtime Yankees fan who lives in Phoenix. With RAB shutting down in two weeks, Josh wrote about what RAB means to him, and I thought it was worth sharing on the site. I’ve had a lot — a *lot* — of people reach out with similar stories and I thank you all.

I’m a millennial. I say that as a statement of fact and not as some proud, defiant proclamation. I was born in 1985 in Plattsburgh, New York, which is a place that could be described as everywhere and nowhere. You see, there are many towns like it but I challenge you to find it without typing it into Google Maps. For a baseball fan growing up in the 90s, Plattsburgh felt like a dream because no major league club had a monopoly in the market. You could love any club you wanted to. Expos, Red Sox, Mets and Yankees fans co-existed in an interleague utopia. You had the pick of the litter. You could love one team and not worry about being outnumbered by another fanbase. It was a creature comfort. And since I lived close enough to the Expos’ Stade Olympique, it meant I had easy access to watch live ball games in person. As much as I tried, I couldn’t love the Expos. Then one day, my mom bought me a mitt with Derek Jeter’s insignia and I found my club.

For many millennials, phrases like “you can be whoever you want to be” and “it won’t feel like a job if you truly love what you do” might sound like milquetoast meditations on how to comport yourself but if you ask your parents how often they heard those sentiments in their youth from their own parents, chances are they didn’t hear them much. Gen Xers and Boomers often followed their parents into their line of work or pursued the career of their parents’ choosing. In the 50s and 60s, children were not considered the focus of the family. As you can imagine, the father was. But as the rates of divorce and women in the workforce grew from the 70s and beyond, so did the focus on children within the immediate family. My father is an immigrant and my mother was born near Albany, New York. My parents subscribed to the notion that their kids should be able to pursue their dreams, loves and interests. My father felt it was necessary in the interest of assimilation while my mother simply rejected her parents’ parenting style.

I was stats-obsessed from an early age. I could rip off triple-slashes and all-time records with ease. I impressed my family by knowing not only what guys like Jeter produced, but also knowing what guys like Tino Martinez produced. When I popped in World Series Baseball ‘95 into my Sega Genesis (and after several clearing blows into the cartridge), I always stacked the top of my lineup with guys who had high batting averages. I vividly remember taking my baseball cards out, looking at lifetime averages, putting my slugger in the clean-up spot and slotting high average guys around him. In fact, swapping out Mike Gallego for Randy Velarde was often my first managerial move. No matter the player, I wanted to know the numbers. I had to know how good he was. Through middle school, high school and most of college, it was mostly the same – Triple Crown stats. There was a lot of “gimme a .270 hitter with 10 home runs over a .250 hitter with 30 home runs any day” and “who cares what his ERA is? He had 20 wins last year!”

Then I found RAB. It was a merging of data and baseball that I had never seen before. Even my friends who are Sox fans read it. RAB opened me up to an analytics treasure trove including Moneyball, Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant. My assumptions, which were largely formed by the old school philosophies, were shattered. The days of arguing that Jeter’s 97 RBI as a number two hitter meant he should win the MVP were gone. I saw all data – not just baseball stats – in a new, revelatory light. To me, hunting for undervalued players became an obsession. Comparing legends was commonplace as a topic of conversation among my friends. Yet perhaps the most rewarding thing was seeing the evolution of the content itself as it changed from simply pointing out oddities to explaining why those oddities existed and contextualizing them. Instead of turning me away from baseball, understanding sabermetrics caused me to love the sport more deeply.

In the end, my parents’ rejection of their parents’ teachings opened me up to the idea that I could take what I learned from RAB and turn it into my livelihood. I make my living as a data analyst and one my favorite facets of the job is finding new ways to solve old problems. My parents rejected the old ways. RAB rejected the old ways. And in turn, I rejected the old ways. In a significant manner, I credit RAB for my chosen profession.

I’ll miss my most consistent lunchtime companion. I’ll miss the moment I type “r” into the search bar and see “riveraveblues.com” immediately show up. And a few months after RAB closes up shop and I’m no longer visiting the site, I won’t see it anymore. Google will have decided that it’s no longer relevant. But I know the truth.

RAB is the definition of surplus value. It’s basically Aaron Judge’s rookie season but for twelve straight years. We’re all lucky to have had this unbelievably consistent and quality outlet for our favorite ball club literally at our fingertips.

Thank you to Mike, Ben, Joe and everyone who contributed over the years. It’s been a pleasure.

James Paxton may’ve been tipping his pitches in Houston, but command is his biggest problem right now

April 15, 2019 by Mike

Three starts into the new season, prized offseason pickup James Paxton is sitting on a 6.00 ERA (4.41 FIP) in 15 innings. He’s allowed eleven runs and put 26 runners on base. Opponents are hitting .328/.388/.577 against him. That is capital-B Bad. It’s also three starts. Paxton has had one good start, one okay start, and one bad start. The start of his Yankees career has been uneven at best.

“One result or another is always attributed to (playing in New York) when the reality is, more often than not, it’s baseball,” Aaron Boone said yesterday regarding Paxton’s start to the season. “Results, especially early in the season, can sometimes be a little mixed and fleeting and in and out, and we attach a reason to it rather than the game’s tough, and guys get in and out of locked in.”

The Astros worked over Paxton in his most recent start, scoring five runs and putting eleven men on base in four innings plus two batters. He faced 21 batters and nine saw at least five pitches. The Astros swung and missed only eight times at Paxton’s 95 pitches and they fouled away 26 total pitches, including 14 with two strikes. Those 14 two-strike foul balls were the fifth most in his career. The Astros were on everything.

Yesterday Paxton revealed he was tipping his pitches in Houston. Specifically, there was a tell that allowed runners at second base to pick up his curveball, which they then relayed to the batter. Paxton said special assistant Carlos Beltran picked up on it and showed him the video when the team returned to New York. Generally speaking, pitchers don’t talk about tipping pitches until they correct it, so Paxton must believe he’s corrected it.

“I did find out I was tipping my pitches when there were guys at second base, so they knew what was coming,” Paxton said to Zach Braziller over the weekend. “They were fouling off some pretty good pitches, taking some pretty good pitches. There were stealing some signs. So that’s didn’t help … (They) could see if I was going soft or hard.”

Boone confirmed the Yankees suspected something was up during Paxton’s start — “We realized there was probably something going on from behind, that guys could potentially pick up with him here and there,” Boone said — but added this has not been an ongoing problem, and that Paxton’s issues in Houston went beyond tipping pitches. His stuff wasn’t crisp and his command was not good.

“I just don’t think he was real sharp in his last start,” Boone said. “Stuff wasn’t his electric stuff that we’ve seen at times, and just a little bit off with his command. Again, going back to a number of hitters that got to be really long counts for him, where he’s having a hard time putting away guys and part of that’s a credit to the Astros hitters, who made it tough on him. It really extended his outing and made him work really hard even when he was getting outs.”

Despite all the traffic on the bases, Paxton faced only five batters with a runner at second base during his start in Houston. Here’s what those five batters did:

George Springer: Four-pitch 6-4-3 double play in the second.
Yuli Gurriel: Six-pitch walk in the third.
Tyler White: Nine-pitch strikeout in the third.
Aledmys Diaz: Runner thrown out at second on second pitch of the at-bat to end the third.
George Springer: Seven-pitch strikeout in the fourth.

Some long counts there, for sure, but if Paxton was truly tipping pitches to the runner at second base, it didn’t hurt a whole lot beyond the pitch count. Paxton faced five batters with a runner on second, one at-bat was cut short by baserunning buffoonery, and only one of the other four batters reached base. That’s all.

Paxton faced 17 batters without a runner at runner at second base Wednesday — there were quite a few first-and-third situations that avoided a runner at second — and ten of the 17 reached base. Ten of 17! Good gravy. That doesn’t mean tipping pitches to the runner at second wasn’t a problem that needed to be addressed, but focusing on the pitch-tipping is missing the forest for the trees. There was more going on in Houston.

Three starts into the season, the numbers on Paxton’s stuff are right where they were the last few years. There hasn’t been a decline in velocity or spin or swing-and-miss-ability. The numbers quick:

	Fastball				Curveball				Cutter
	%	Velo	Spin	Whiffs	%	Velo	Spin	Whiffs	%	Velo	Spin	Whiffs
2017	65.5	95.5	2,263	23.2	21.4	80.4	2,022	41.0	10.7	88.8	2,102	37.3
2018	63.6	95.4	2,283	25.6	21.5	81.1	1,949	39.9	14.4	89.0	2,107	37.1
2019	65.4	95.0	2,292	23.1	14.7	80.5	1,988	33.3	19.9	87.9	2,127	40.9

It’s reasonable to expect Paxton to add a little velocity as the weather warms up, so everything is right where it needs to be in mid-April, and that’s good. A sudden drop in spin rate or whiff rate would be worrisome. Paxton should maybe throw a few more curveballs going forward, though that’s an easy fix, and his curveball usage rate isn’t that much lower than usual. It could be back to normal quick.

Watching his last two starts, it seemed to me Paxton’s command was the biggest issue, not stuff and tipping pitches to the runner at second base. He fell behind in the count a little too often, was over the heart of the plate a little too often, and maybe a little too predictable as well. Paxton has always thrown a ton of fastballs because his fastball is so good. A few more curveballs and cutters to change the scouting report a bit wouldn’t be a terrible idea.

Tipping pitches to the runner at second base may have been an issue in Houston. It does not appear it was the problem, however, just given how few runners were actually at second base. This early in the season, everything gets magnified, and Paxton’s three starts have been uneven overall. As long as the stuff is fine and he’s healthy — as far as we know, both of those things are true — it’ll likely be only a matter of time until Paxton gets on track. Tipping pitches to the runner at second? That was only a small part of the problem in Houston.

“(Beltran) showed me some video (and said), ‘Look at these takes, look at these swings. They wouldn’t be making these swings or these takes if they didn’t know what was coming,’” Paxton said to Braziller. “That being said, I also didn’t throw the ball very well. I was over the middle of the plate too much, even when there were guys not on second base. So I need to be better as well.”

Yankeemetrics: Bronx is burning (April 12-14)

April 15, 2019 by Katie Sharp

April 12: No lead is safe anymore
The Yankees returned to the Bronx on a rainy Friday night and picked up right where they left off when they departed Texas — blowing a lead and losing another game.

The loss dropped them to 5.5 games behind in the AL East, putting them in an unprecedented hole in the division race. It was the first time they trailed by more than five games in the standings this early into the season (13th game) since 1984, when the Tigers won 16 of their first 17 games and ran away with the AL East crown.

It was a collective dumpster-fire performance by the pitching staff. J.A. Happ was awful from the start (six runs allowed on nine hits) and continued his trend of inefficient, ineffective pitching this season (88 pitches, 12 outs). For the third time in three starts, he was unable to get more than one out in the fifth inning before getting pulled.

Before Happ, the last two Yankee pitchers to last no more than 4 1/3 innings in each of their first three starts of the season were Phil Hughes (2011) and Chien-Ming Wang (2009) … and both of those guys went on the DL after their third start.

After the Yankees pulled within a run in the bottom of the sixth, Chad Green came into the game in the next frame and sealed the loss by allowing back-to-back homers. It was the first time as a reliever he gave up multiple homers in a game. He has pitched 6 1/3 innings and allowed three homers. In 2017, he allowed four homers in 69 innings pitched.

April 13: CC The Great
The Yankees briefly snapped out of their slump on Saturday. They blanked the White Sox 4-0 thanks to a vintage performance from CC Sabathia and a dose of smallball offense.

Sabathia and three relievers combined to give up just one hit and no walks, the fourth game in Yankee Stadium history (old or new) that the Yankees pitchers didn’t walk a batter and allowed no more than one hit. The other three times? David Cone’s perfecto (July 19, 1999), David Wells’ perfecto (May 17, 1998) and Don Larsen’s perfecto (Oct. 8, 1956).

Sabathia was spectacular in his 19th and final season debut, delivering a performance — though abbreviated — that statistically might rank among the best of his big-league career. He retired 15 of the 16 batters faced, allowing only a third-inning single. It was the first game in Sabathia’s career that he gave up one or fewer baserunners (while pitching more than an inning). The big lefty also re-wrote the franchise record books:

CC Sabathia is the 1st pitcher in Yankees history (since 1908) to allow no more than 1 baserunner in his first start of the season.

— Katie Sharp (@ktsharp) April 13, 2019

The Yankees broke a scoreless tie in the seventh with a couple manufactured runs:

bases-loaded RBI single by Luke Voit (who is a cool 7-for-18 and 16 RBI with the bags full in his career)
bases-loaded sac fly by Kyle Higashioka (the first sac fly of his MLB career!)
perfect safety squeeze bunt by Tyler Wade (the first successful sac bunt of his MLB career!)

Aaron Judge then added another run in the eighth with a solo shot that just cleared the right-field porch. It had a Statcast-projected distance of 335 feet, the shortest home run of his career.

Tanaka slammed, bats crumble
Any sliver of optimism coming from Saturday’s win was quickly erased in Sunday’s 5-2 loss. They’ve now dropped each of their first three series at Yankee Stadium; the last time that happened was 1982 (a forgettable season that included three managers and 83 losses). Even worse the three series losses have come against the Tigers, White Sox and Orioles — teams that averaged 104 losses last year and are projected to have three of the five worst records in MLB this season.

The game followed a very familiar — and depressing — script, with the Yankees taking an early lead, blowing it and the offense unable to mount a comeback.

The facts: The Yankees have held a lead in 14 of 15 games and are 6-8 in those games; they’ve scored first in 12 of 15 games and are 5-7 in those games.

8 blown-lead losses are tied with the Royals for the most in MLB.
Last year they didn’t suffer their 8th blown-lead loss until June 24.
Last year they won 80% of their games in which they had a lead (second-best record in MLB), and the MLB-wide win percentage is 70%.
7 losses when scoring first are the most in MLB this season.
Last year they didn’t get their 7th scoring-first loss until July 15
Last year they won 81% of their games when scoring first (second-best record in MLB) and the MLB-wide win percentage is 67%

Masahiro Tanaka cruised through the first three frames, striking out five of the first seven batters he faced. But he unraveled in the fourth, loading the bases with one out, before Tim Anderson pummeled a hanging splitter for a game-changing grand slam. It was the fourth career grand slam allowed by Tanaka, and all four have come since 2017. The only other pitcher to give up four slams in that span is J.A. Happ.

As nasty as Tanaka’s splitter can be when he locates it down in the zone or in the dirt, it’s a meatball pitch when he can’t command it.

And so far this year, he’s struggled to keep the pitch out of the hitter’s attack zone more than in any previous season. Here’s his percentage of splitters thrown in the heart of the zone:

2019 – 30%
2018 – 21%
2017 – 21%
2016 – 16%
2015 – 14%
2014 – 15%

Tanaka was terrible but the offense was just as awful, scoring only two runs on four hits; from the fourth through ninth innings, just two Yankees reached base and neither of those guys made it to second base.

Fan Confidence Poll: April 15th, 2019

April 15, 2019 by Mike

Record Last Week: 6-9 (24 RS, 32 RA)
Season Record: 1-5 (73 RS, 63 RA, 8-6 expected record)
Scheduled This Week: Monday OFF; Two games vs. Red Sox (Tues. and Weds.); Four games vs. Royals (Thurs. to Sun.)

DotF: Estrada and Ford stay red hot in Scranton’s win

April 14, 2019 by Mike

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (9-5 win over Buffalo)

2B Thairo Estrada: 2-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 3 RBI — 8-for-23 (.348) with three doubles and two homers in his last five games
1B Mike Ford: 2-3, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI — up to .471/.525/1.029 with nearly twice as many extra-base hits (four doubles, five homers) than strikeouts (five) … he has to be loving life with the MLB ball against Triple-A pitching
RF Trey Amburgey: 1-4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 K, 1 SB
DH Ryan McBroom: 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K — 7-for-15 (.467) with a double and two homers in his last five games
SS Gosuke Katoh: 2-4, 1 RBI, 1 2B, 1 K, 1 CS
LHP Gio Gonzalez: 5 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 3/1 GB/FB — 61 of 93 pitches were strikes (66%) … Gonzalez has one more start to show the Yankees they should add him to their roster before his April 20th opt-out date arrives … my guess right now is they will add him to the roster and figure out where exactly he fits later
RHP Jake Barrett: 2 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1/2 GB/FB — 20 of 25 pitches were strikes (80%)

[Read more…]