Bringin’ in a thread from the bullpen. Fear the middle relievers.
Game 39: The Start of Something Big
So the Yankees kinda have a good thing going right now. They’re coming off a four-game sweep of the formerly first place Twins, and have won their last six overall. But wait, it gets better.
On the mound tonight is CC Sabathia, who has a 2.84 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a .552 OPS against in his last four starts (31.2 IP). After a rocky start, it’s safe to say that CC is pitching just like the Yankees expected him to when they forked over $161M over the winter. The last time Sabathia faced the Orioles he twirled the best start of his Yankee career, throwing a four-hit complete game shutout. Eleven days later, the Yankees are looking for the same kind of performance out of their ace.
With Sabathia on the mound there’s a good chance the Yanks won’t need to dig to deep into their bullpen, but in case they need too they’ll have the services of Brian Bruney for the first time in exactly four weeks. Bruney’s return couldn’t have come at a better time, because it looks like Phil Coke will be unavailable tonight after throwing 36 pitches last night. To make room for Bruney on the roster, the Yanks … have done nothing yet. They’re going to make a decision after batting practice, so stay tuned for an update.
Here’s the starting nine:
Jeter, SS
Damon, LF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Matsui, DH
Swisher, RF – .148 BABIP in May
Cano, 2B
Melky, CF
Cervelli, C
And on the mound, the sensational southpaw, CC Sabathia.
Update (6:43pm): Edwar Ramirez has been optioned to Triple-A Scranton to make room for Bruney.
Photo Credit: Mitchell Layton, Getty Images
Torre, Bronx-bound in 2010, blames Proctor for injury
Known for his high workloads with the Yanks (102.1 IP in ’06, yikes), Scott Proctor had Tommy John surgery last week after battling elbow issues for parts of the last two seasons. Now, his longtime manager Joe Torre says that Proctor’s stupidity is to blame. “There’s playing hurt, and then there’s playing stupid,” Torre said. “It doesn’t have anything to do with someone’s intelligence. If you can endure pain and still are able to do what you do, that’s one thing. If you’re willing to play, which means you certainly are brave, but you can’t be the player that you need to be, then it’s not very smart to do for your own health, and you’re not helping the team either.”
Now, I understand that Joe is trying to say that Proctor should have spoken up about when he needed a break, but it’s not like the guy forced his way into 166 games in a two year span. Joe is usually an excellent communicator, but some things are better left unsaid.
In other Joe Torre news, The Post reports that the 2010 preliminary schedule features a trip to the Bronx by Torre and the Dodgers. It would be the Dodgers’ first visit to the Bronx since the 1981 World Series and Torre’s first since his uncomfortable departure in 2007. Derek Jeter told the Murdoch-owned tabloid that it would be “awkward” to play against Torre.
Stadium quick hits: Seat sales and Suite views
As always, the overhead shots of Yankee Stadium under deconstruction come to us from CBS’ Tom Kaminski riding above us in Chopper 88. More scenes from inside the old park are available as part of this photo gallery. The House that Ruth Built is beginning to look quite naked.
Anyway, we have a few stadium stories to tackle. Let’s jump in:
The Post reports on some very brisk sales of Stadium memorabilia. Steiner Sports claims they’re moving $1 million a day in stadium merchandise, and the article features a few celebrities looking to get in on the action. Rudy Giuliani plans to buy his two seats and some sod. LeBron James, Keith Olbermann, Maury Povich and George Pataki want to snag some seats, and Richard Gere has yet to decide what he wants. Compelling, compelling stuff.
Closer to home, The Post also looked at what the Yankees want in graphic form. Bernie wants the 408 section of the center field wall; Johnny Damon wants the foul poles for his Florida property; a handful of current and former Yanks want their old lockers. It sounds as though the players are going to have to pay for the memorabilia too.
In new Stadium news, Mike from In Mo We Trust sat in and reviewed the Legends Suite experience. He really enjoyed the experience even if the price makes it a one-time thing. I believe that Mike’s review is the first first-person account of those oft-empty seats out there.
As the NYC Park Advocates again slam the city for delays in opening replacement parks for the lost Macombs Dam Park, the Yankees let slip that they are considering how to address critiques of the new stadium experience. Sam Borden reported that Yanks VP Felix Lopez let slip a mea culpa of sorts on the radio yesterday. “There are a lot of things wrong with this building we’re trying to fix,” he said. “With the help of the fans and the media, we’re looking into everything.”
Borden notes — and I agree — that Lopez’s comment is either the sign of dissension in the ranks of the Yankee front office or an indication that Lonn Trost’s and Randy Levine’s power may be waning. We’ll continue to follow that story.
Finally, two humorous stories, only one of which is satire: A Steiner Collectibles executive is considering bottling and selling Yankee clubhouse air. The Onion took on the high ticket prices. I think the clubhouse air story, while true, is actually funnier.
Buster Olney still doesn’t understand small samples
In his blog today, Buster Olney is back on the “Coors Field East” drum he’s been beating all season. It’s gotten tiresome. Olney ran with the issue after the Yanks’ first homestand — which we’ll get to in just a second — and revisited the topic because of the five home runs the Yanks and Twins hit last night. Both of these instances constitute minuscule samples, and it leads Olney to some wrongheaded analysis.
However, after five homers were hit in the Yankees’ win over the Twins on Monday, there have now been 63 homers in 17 games in new Yankee Stadium: 32 by the Yankees, 31 by the Yankees’ opponents. Last year, the Yankees’ pitchers allowed 68 for the entire season, and the Yankees’ hitters mashed 92, for a total of 160. So at the current rate, there will be more homers hit in new Yankee Stadium by July 17 — the first home game after the All-Star break — than there were during the entire 2008 season in old Yankee Stadium.
First off, extrapolating from a small sample is no better than analyzing a small sample by itself. All it does is magnify the random effects experienced in a sample of just 17 games. As a for-instance, just look at then-Tigers first baseman Chris Shelton in 2006. He hit nine home runs through the first 13 games of the season. If you extrapolated from that small sample, Shelton would have hit over 100 homers that season. Obviously that’s a stupid analysis, and it’s exactly what Olney is doing when he looks at homers in the new Stadium.
Yes, there have been an inordinately high number of balls flying out of the new Stadium, but to look at the numbers now and decide that it’s a bandbox is silly. There are circumstances which can arise in small samples which skew the results. The most notable is the first series at the Stadium. In the four games against Cleveland, both teams hit 20 home runs. In the two games against Oakland both teams hit six, meaning there were 26 homers hit over six games, or 4.3 per game. Now look at the 11 games since, wherein the Yanks and their opponents combined for 37 home runs, or 3.36 per game.
The home run total doesn’t figure to be a statistic which will correct itself. The Yankees have 64 remaining home games, and it’s a virtual lock that more than 97 balls will leave the park in that span (160 balls left Yankee Stadium last season). However, to take the numbers in such a small sample is a fool’s game. The Yankees have barely played a fifth of the total games at Yankee Stadium so far. The first series at the Stadium sticks out to us because of the 20 home runs that left the park, but that’s a ridiculous pace which can never be sustained, even in the most hitter-friendly park. The number has been trending downward since, as any statistician would have predicted.
Olney asks at the end of his bit, “Is it still too early to say the new place plays small?” Again, considering the Yankee Stadium schedule isn’t even a quarter done, the answer is yes. It is way too early. Please, Buster, let’s wait until July to determine how many home runs will leave the park at that point.
Jennings: Wang’s locker is empty
Man on the scene Chad Jennings notes that Chien-Ming Wang’s locker in the Triple-A Scranton clubhouse is empty, and he is no longer listed on the team’s upcoming pitching rotation. This could mean one of two things: a) he’s on his way back to New York (he won’t necessarily be activated right away), or b) he’s heading to High-A Tampa because the team doesn’t want him starting on the road when he makes his next scheduled start on Friday (both AAA & AA are on the road that day, so a start would have to come with High-A Tampa). My money’s on the former.
If they feel he is indeed ready to return to the rotation, the best course of action appears to be letting Wang start Friday against the Phillies on regular rest, pushing AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte back a day. Phil Hughes would start tomorrow then be pulled from the rotation, while CC Sabathia and Joba Chamberlain remain on a five-day schedule. They could also opt to skip Joba and give Hughes another start. The possibilities are endless. The important thing is that it appears the Yanks’ incumbent ace is ready to rejoin the team.
Guest Post: Skipping Joba now to save him later
The following is a guest post by Samuel Avro. While at work, Samuel Avro covers the energy industry and is the editor of Consumer Energy Report. If not making it to the New Yankee Stadium in the opening two months doesn’t annul the fact, Samuel is a die-hard fan of the Bronx Bombers. Those readers interested in submitting guest posts can contact me via e-mail at ben at riveraveblues dot com.
With Joba Chamberlain firmly entrenched in the starting rotation and the “Joba Rules” a mere memory of the Joe Torre Era, the much-hyped fan-favorite entered the season with a different, albeit strictly-enforced, set of rules.
Gone are the days when a pitcher’s arm wasn’t babied and their innings limit was simply the endurance they were able to sustain. What has increasingly become known as the “Verducci Effect” (due to SI writer Tom Verducci’s yearly compilation of young pitchers he deems at risk) has taken root in the management circles of MLB. While by no means gospel, the rule of thumb is that a pitcher under the age of 25 should not increase his innings total by more than 30 frames over the previous season.
As the Yanks’ righty pitched only 100.1 innings in 2008, the gospel would say that Joba should expect to reach his cap at the 140-150 inning range this season. (While according to Verducci’s rule it should be capped at about 130, Joba threw 110 professional innings in 2007 and could sustain an increase this year of around 40 innings.)
Since Joba has already pitched 40 2/3 innings, If he were to average even a little less than 6 innings per start, he’d be on pace to hit his cap well before the end of the season. The Yankees are left with two options which would allow Joba to remain in the rotation for the rest of the season, while continuing to build up arm strength for seasons to come: They can simply pull him early from a lot of starts; or they could skip his starts in the rotation every now and again, keeping some innings in the tank for later in the season.
To be sure, neither of the options is ideal. If the kid is able to cut down on the walks and can have enough pitches in his arm to allow him to go deeper into games, the last thing I’d want to see is his getting yanked prematurely in a game he is dominating. As far as skipping his turn in the rotation goes, no one knows how his arm will respond when deviating from its normal routine of throwing every five days.
What I’d like to see (for lack of a better idea) is somewhat of a hybrid mentality of the two options. Skip his starts every once in a while, and perhaps limit his innings in games where he isn’t at his best.
Currently, with Chien-Ming Wang coming off another stellar start for SWB, the Yankees have their chance to skip a start of Joba’s without messing around with the rotation. Depending on when Wang returns to the big-league club, the Yankees can easily skip one start of Joba’s without playing around too much with the rotation as a whole.
Since the scheduled starting day of Phil Hughes is not aligned with that of Wang’s, the Yankees — if Wang returns this week — can simply move A.J. Burnett’s day up to Thursday (Joba’s next scheduled start) and have Wang pitch on Friday with Joba rejoining the rotation and filling in for the place of Hughes next week. If the Yankees opted to keep Wang in the minors for one more start, the same plan can be carried out next week when he rejoins the team. That is, the Yanks can push A.J.’s start up by a day to Tuesday with Wang taking Joba’s start on Wednesday. Thursday is an off day.
I know that many people will want the Yankees to just place him in the bullpen near the end of the season as a solution to the innings cap problem, but the days of tinkering with his pitching persona should be over. He’s a 23-year-old pitcher who has the potential to be one of the dominant starters of the next decade. Moving him to the bullpen should be used only as a last resort if the other options are not feasible.
Though the season is still young, the front office will have to start thinking of the solutions before it’s thrust upon them in the midst of a pennant race. They can’t wait to confront the issue when it has already become too late.