When I first posted my instant analysis on Chien-Ming Wang’s injury on Sunday afternoon, I pointed my finger at the inanities of Interleague Play. The marketing gimmick, I argued before getting refuted by the commenters here, unnecessarily puts American League pitchers at risk. While these athletes are in fine shape, they aren’t used to the act of running the bases. It’s not one of the five tools for nothing.

While it’s hard to argue that Wang’s injury was directly a result of Interleague Play and his running the bases, it was only the second time in his professional career that Chien-Ming Wang found himself on base. That is not a comforting thought for anyone relying on the health of the Yankees ace. As luck would have it, the Yanks caught a very bad break, and Wang finds himself out until, by all indications, at least September.

While Yankee fans are being surprisingly stoic about this spin of the wheel of fortune, the Big Mouth of the Yankees, Hank Steinbrenner himself, had a few ridiculous choice words for the rules of the Senior Circuit. Said Hank:

“My only message is simple: The National League needs to join the 21st century. They need to grow up and join the 21st century. I’ve got my pitchers running the bases, and one of them gets hurt. He’s going to be out. I don’t like that, and it’s about time they address it. That was a rule from the 1800s…

“This is always a concern of American League teams when their pitchers have to run the bases and they’re not used to doing it. It’s not just us. It’s everybody. It probably should be a concern for National League owners, general managers and managers when their pitchers run the bases. Pitchers have enough to do without having to do that.”

Setting aside the fact that the DH is from 1973, and pitchers used to bat in both leagues for decades prior to that, Hank, through the bluster, does raise something of a point. When Major League teams invest so heavily in pitching and pay through the nose for guys at the top of the game, all General Managers must cringe in agony every time one of their hurlers takes a big hack or winds up on base. Whether or not that’s good for the game is another matter.

For Hank, this is just more of the same. He likes to sound off, and it doesn’t impact anything other than the number of papers sold in New York, the ratings of the FAN and the general perception of Steinbrenner in the eyes of everyone else.

From a practical matter, the Yankees are going to have to proceed carefully. As foot guru Dr. Philip Kwong told BP’s Will Carroll today, the Yankees have to make sure Wang’s injury is 100 percent healed before he does anything else because the risk of chronic injury is very high. Carroll speculates that the Yanks’ record will dictate how they rehab their young ace, and I would be surprised to see Wang pitch again this season. He’s just that important next year.

The injury was horrendously bad luck, and we can harbor resentment toward the NL. Maybe it’s time to revisit that age-old DH debate or maybe not. But one thing is for sure: Hank Steinbrenner makes for great copy.

Take a deep breath, and then read this from the Yankees:

Imaging studies revealed a mid-foot sprain of the Lisfranc ligament of the right foot and a partial tear of the peroneal longus tendon of the right foot.

Wang will be on crutches and wear a protective boot for a minimum of six weeks.

With a rehab period of three to four weeks, Wang won’t be back in a Major League game until late August at the earliest. Considering that Wang hurt his foot while rounding third base yesterday — just the second time ever the Yanks’ ace has ran the bases — this is just terrible, terrible luck for the Yankees.

But they can win without him. Let’s not lose sight of that fact.

What they do in the meantime however with regards to pitching will be speak volumes of the philosophy the Yankees are opting to pursue. Brian Cashman knows as well as anyone else that one of the greatest benefits of a strong farm system is being in a position to acquire Major League talent via a trade, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yanks make a move for some pitcher whether it’s C.C. Sabathia, Derek Lowe or someone completely off our radar.

Meanwhile, the timing of Joba’s move to the rotation could not have been better. Just know that the Yanks have the pieces to weather this storm. Have some faith.

I’ll get right to the point, and let Tyler Kepner ruin your Monday morning relate the bad news:

The Yankees’ season changed irreversibly on Sunday. Chien-Ming Wang’s season is in jeopardy with a serious injury to his right foot, and C. C. Sabathia instantly became a very important name in the Yankees’ universe.

Wang … did not speak to reporters, but he told others that he felt a pop in his foot while rounding third base, a strong sign of ligament damage that could sideline him for months, if not the rest of the season…

The Yankees called the injury a sprained right foot, and they will hope for the best until Wang has a magnetic resonance imaging test in New York on Monday. But the early signs are grim.

The injury is to the top of Wang’s foot, the same general area that reliever Brian Bruney injured when he tripped while covering first base in April. Bruney was found to have a Lisfranc injury and is expected to miss a minimum of three months.

Wang has symptoms of the same injury, including swelling and the inability to bear weight on the foot; he left Minute Maid Park on crutches, in a soft cast. Bruney’s injury was in the middle of the foot, and Wang’s is believed to be in the webbing of his toes, between his big toe and second toe.

Let’s get this part out of the way: This had absolutely nothing to do with Wang’s running, and everything today with seemingly landing on third base the wrong way. Would this have been avoided without Interleague Play as I had originally proposed in my instant analysis? Probably. But we have to remember that this was still a freak accident. Hate Interleague Play as much as you want — as I do right now — but bad luck is bad luck.

Now, if this is another Lisfranc injury, the Yanks are in for a world of pain. The diagnosis on Lisfranc injuries is generally not good. While Brian Bruney will attempt a rehab, surgery is almost always the case, and Wang’s season could very well be over.

Now, before you go jump off the nearest bridge, keep in mind that this is early speculation on the part of the Yankees and Kepner. We won’t know anything until later on today, and at that point, the Yankees will begin to evaluate their options.

Yes, the Yankees need Chien-Ming Wang, but if Joba’s development continues, Andy Pettitte finds some consistency and Mike Mussina continues doing what he’s doing, the Yanks are not as in bad a shape as they could have been. The offense is clicking; the team is beginning to win. Wang’s loss is a blow, but the Yankees can weather this storm.

Later on today — around 12:30 p.m. — we’ll have our look at potential trade replacements. The Yankees also have internal options, including Ian Kennedy, Alan Horne, Dan Giese and Dan McCutchen as well as Phil Hughes a month or two down the road. For now, we just have to keep our chins up and hope for the best. It sounds bleak, and it may be bleak. But we just have to keep on trucking. Wang throws just once every five days, and the Yankees can win without him even if they’d rather be winning with him.

And, hey, perhaps now would be a good time for Carl Pavano to pick up his rehab pace. Imagine that one riding in on a white horse to save the Yankees.

The early word out of the Yankee clubhouse is that Chien-Ming Wang has a sprained foot. He’s wearing a soft cast and is on cruches. Joe Girardi said that the Yankee ace, 8-2 on the year, will go for tests — including an MRI — tomorrow in New York, and the team said that Wang’s injury is not an achilles tendon rupture. When asked if Wang would make his next start, he replied, “I wouldn’t think so. I’d be shocked.” With the Yanks just 3.5 games behind the Rays for that final AL playoff spot, Yankee fans across the world are holding their breaths right now.

As the Yankees and the Astros finish up this formality of a baseball game, the score is 11-0 in the 7th inning. While, barring an epic collapse, the Yankees will go a season-high four games over .500, the big story is Chien-Ming Wang.

Through five innings, Wang was rolling. He had allowed no runs on six hits and three strike outs. He hadn’t issued a base on balls and thrown 51 of 71 pitches for strikes. In the top of the sixth, he had to run the bases, and while attempting to score with two outs — a dicey move with the Yanks’ moving up 4-0 on the play — he pulled up lame and had to be helped off the field. The Yankees have yet to announce the injury and are saying it’s a right foot problem.

The Yanks could go on to win this game 30-0, and it wouldn’t matter because losing Chien-Ming Wang would be a huge blow to this team. He’s been nearly untouchable over his last two outings and seemed to be reestablishing himself as the Yankee ace after a tough month of May.

This type of injury is exactly why Interleague Play as an attendance gimmick can harm a team just bad luck. Wang — and the rest of the AL pitchers — are not always used to run the bases. They don’t need to spend as much time as NL pitchers worrying about hitter and running; they can instead focus on pitching. So when an AL pitcher has to run the bases, everyone holds their collective breath, and accidents — freak ones, in this case — happen.

The Yanks now in a bit of bind; they’ll have to rely on Joba, Pettitte and Mussina with Rasner’s holding up the back end and an Ian Kennedy, shaky early on, on the horizon but still a week or two away. You can bet the C.C. Sabathia talks will heat up, and if the injury to Wang is serious, the Yanks will have to explore that option. They’re finally rounding into form; they’re narrowing the Wild Card gap; hopefully, this won’t knock the Yanks — now looking like a good team — down.

Remember April? It’s easy to start off an article that way, since things are so vastly different now than they were then. Now Jason Giambi is helping carry this offense. Now Melky Carbera has cooled off, to say the least. And now Chien-Ming Wang is having his bout with ineffectiveness.

During the season’s first month, Wang was 5-0, picking up his sixth win without a loss on May 2. Since then, he’s 0-2, and has seen his ERA balloon from an even 3.00 to 4.57. The “Wang is an ace” crowd was getting rather indignant in April. They’re not quite eating crow yet, but their arrogance was certainly overstated.

According to pitching coach Dave Eiland and catcher Jorge Posada, Wang’s troubles are in the form of a mechanical issue. I’m loathe to write this phrase, since it was also attributed to Randy Johnson when he came to New York, but it appears Wang is “flying open” during his delivery. This leads him to “drop his right elbow and push the ball rather than drive it down. That means no sink on his sinker and a loss of command.”

Posada notes that because he uses different arm angles for his slider and sinker, he’s having trouble moving from the former to the latter. This seems a bit strange to me. If he’s using different arm angles for specific pitches, isn’t that an easy tip to hitters? Then again, that could be another facet of his recent struggles.

So we’re getting less than expected from Pettitte and Wang, and realizing the worst case scenarios from IPK and Hughes. Yes, we’re getting far more than anyone could have expected from Mike Mussina and Darrell Rasner, but that hasn’t quite balanced things out yet. But as the offense returns to its true form, we’re going to rely on these pitchers to drive us a 15th straight playoff appearance.

Not only did the Joba kerfuffle overshadow a solid Yankee win, but lost in the frenzy was some alarming news concerning Yankees ace Chien-Ming Wang. The righty suffered a calf strain on Sunday night against the Mets and kept pitching — poorly, at that. An MRI revealed a very slight tear, but the Yankees trainers and Wang say he is set to make his next start, for now. This is not an injury the Yanks can afford.

This is a guest post by Adam Bernfeld. He is trained as an engineer and likes to apply his analytical nature to baseball to differentiate “what seems” vs. “what is”. His interests include PITCHf/x, DIPS, the concept of clutch, and Laura Posada.

“Statistics are like women: mirrors of purest virtue and truth, or like whores to use as one pleases.”
-Theodor Billroth

It is true that in a vacuum, statistics are almost entirely useless. One can manipulate the numbers to prove any side of an argument. They can however provide illumination in instances where what seems may differ from what is. For example, a few years ago before John Dewan wrote the Fielding Bible, a lot of Yankee fans truly did believe that Derek Jeter was a good defensive shortstop because he both seemed like a good fielder, and our broadcasters told us that he was a good fielder. Similarly, watching a Yankee game, one could be led to believe that Chien-Ming Wang possesses the best sinker in all of baseball. After all, it is 94 miles-per-hour and looks like it is dropping off a cliff. Surely no one’s could be better, right? Well, using PITCHf/x data, I hope to crown the true “Sultan of Sink.”

For those new to PITCHf/x, it is a system developed by Sportsvision in use by Major League Baseball that uses two cameras to measure the position of the baseball between the pitcher’s hand and home plate, which can be used to determine various parameters about each pitch including velocity and break (for a more thorough introduction to PITCHf/x, refer here and here).

Using PITHf/x data compiled by Josh Kalk of The Hardball Times, detailed pitch information can be seen for individual players or in a searchable database. For this study, I will compare the speed, horizontal break and vertical break of the average signature pitch of baseball’s prominent sinkerballers from the 2007 season. Based on reputation and ground ball rates, I have chosen a test group that includes: Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona, Aaron Cook, Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Sergio Mitre, Brandon Webb and Jake Westbrook.

Note in the chart above that the values for break represent the number of inches that the pitch moves compared to a pitch thrown without spin, or, compared to a straight pitch under only the influence of gravity. The negative numbers for horizontal break indicate that the pitch moves inside to right-handed hitters. The positive values for vertical break indicate that the pitch crosses the plate higher than a pitch without spin would have. This may seem counterintuitive as we are talking about sinkers, but in reality sinkers are thrown with backspin and do rise (resist dropping actually), albeit much less than a 4-seam fastball, so they do in fact appear to sink. A 4-seam fastball is gripped across the seams resulting in more backspin than a sinker (or 2-seam fastball) which is gripped along the seams; the more backspin, the larger the positive vertical break. For comparison, Joba Chamberlain’s fastball has a vertical break of 11.42 inches, compared to the average vertical break of 4.66 for our sinkerballer group.

The chart above can be shown graphically by plotting horizontal break on the x-axis and vertical break on the y-axis with pitch speed represented by dot size. In this graph, the lower right hand corner, the point (0,0), represents a pitch thrown without spin.

In hopes to build some sort of consensus as to who possesses the best sinker, I used the three PITCHf/x values (speed, horizontal break, vertical break) to create a z-score (also called a “standard score”) which is a statistical quantity used to combine multiple values measured on different scales. I then ordered the average z-score of each pitcher from high to low to rank the pitcher with the best combination of speed and break. Think of this as an index of the “stuff” on the pitcher’s sinker, or a “sinker-stuff index”. This value appears on the chart below alongside each pitcher’s groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB), swing and miss (S&M) percentage, fair ball (FB) hit percentage, and fair ball extra base hit (XBH) percentage. All of these values are for sinkers only, except GB/FB which is the rate for all pitches thrown regardless of type.

The results of this study are interesting. While throwing one of the harder sinkers in the league (second only to Fausto Carmona), Chien-Ming Wang’s sinker actually sinks less than any other member of the test group. This is certainly a surprising observation. In fact, his sinker also has the lowest horizontal break, causing his sinker to rank 8th out of 9 in my sinker-stuff index. This certainly manifests itself in his below average groundball to flyball ratio and sinker swing and miss percentage. Remarkably however, compared to the test group Wang has the lowest percentage of hits off of sinkers, and by far the lowest percentage of extra base hits off of sinkers.

While some may chalk these low hit percentages up to luck, it appears that something deeper may be happening here. Finally though, the stats are pointing towards something that we already believed to be true. What seems agrees with what is, and that is the fact that Chien-Ming Wang rarely allows a hard hit ball off of his sinker. Why then, is his sinker so successful in spite of the fact that it moves so much less than those of his peers? Maybe my methods are all wrong (I hope not). Maybe pitch speed is more significant than pitch break (possibly). Maybe the ease of his delivery, which also includes a pronounced, varied hesitation, has a great effect on hitters’ timing (possible). Maybe Wang’s defense is better at turning batted balls into outs than the others on this list (unlikely). Maybe the DIPS people are right and hit percentages are no more than statistical variations (possibly, although I believe that DIPS applies more loosely to sinkerballers). Maybe it is a combination of all of these factors or even something that I have not thought of (likely), so please feel free to throw out explanations of your own.

Regardless of the reasons, I am glad that Wang is a Yankee as he gives us a very good chance to win once every five days. While his low ranking in my sinker index does not correlate with his outstanding results, at the end of the day I’ll always take the results over the “stuff”. Though after much machination, I have not definitively proved where Wang’s sinker ranks amongst his brethren, but I hope that this was interesting and informative, and maybe allows you to view the game and the sinker in a different light the next time the Wanger takes the hill.

When Chien-Ming Wang first arrived in the Bronx, it was clear from the start that Wang had the stuff to be successful. Throughout his first three seasons in the Bigs, we grew to know and love that heavy sinker and Wang’s stellar groundball rate. But something’s changed this year, and it’s for the better.

This year, as we’ve seen over Wang’s first seven starts, the right-hander — once so reliant on his sinker to get outs — has picked up a few stellar secondary pitches and has learned how to pitch in a way that lets him dominate a game. Look at his numbers: On the season, Wang has thrown 45 innings, and he’s 6-0 with a 3.00 ERA, and over his last three outings, he’s given up 4 earned runs on 17 hits in 19 innings.

Of the numbers, the most important one to me is Wang’s strike out rate. In the early going this year, Wang’s K totals are well above his career norm. Over his last 19 innings, he’s struck out 19 batters, and on the season, he is average 6.40 Ks per 9 IP. With his normally stellar walk rate, his K/BB is now 2.46.

For the last few years, stats-minded analysts have blown their collective gaskets trying to figure out the success of Chien-Ming Wang, and were it not for my seeing him pitch every five days, I’d be right there with them. How did a guy with a career K/9 IP of under 4.00 prior to this year find a way to win more games in the Majors than anyone else over two years while keeping his ERA under 4.00? It didn’t make sense.

Now, we all know that Wang’s non-traditional success came via those groundballs. When he is on, he can command a double play at will, and Major League hitters look foolish topping his pitches. This year, though, with sliders, sinkers, fastballs and a few change ups, Wang has upped his pitching in a way that cements his status as the Yankee ace. He’s keeping runners off base, and he’s keeping balls out of play. That is a sure recipe for success.

As we all know — and as Hank Steinbrenner reminded us tonight — the Yankees have had a tough go of it lately. They’re one game under .500, and the offense isn’t doing much of anything right now. But every five days, Wang takes the mound, and it’s a beacon of very bright light every day. Watching a pitcher put everything together is a real pleasure, and Wang is living the dream. He will lose a few games this season, and he’s facing Cliff Lee and his sub-1.00 ERA next week. But it’s been quite the roll for a pitcher who almost ended up signing with the Mariners seven years ago.

How’s that for an April to remember for Chien-Ming Wang? Wang closed out his opening month in grand style today, throwing 7 innings against the Indians. He limited Cleveland to four hits — three singles and a double — while striking out a season-high nine. With Joba and Mo throwing an inning, the Yanks eked out a 1-0 win behind a Melky Cabrera home run.

For Wang, this start — his sixth of the month — really cemented his status as the Yankee ace. He’ll finish the month leading the AL in wins with five, and he has yet to lose a game this season. His ERA is a nifty 3.23, and his peripherals are great. He has 27 strike outs to 11 walks and has allowed just one home run all year in 39 innings. Opponents, meanwhile, are hitting .235/.292/.315 off the righty.

For Wang, today’s line is a departure from what we’ve come to expect from the sinkerball specialist over the year, but it is a welcome departure. Wang recorded five ground-ball outs and six fly-ball outs today while retiring nine by the K. We’re used to seeing few strike outs, few fly outs and many more ground balls, and as some fans in the game thread wondered, what has changed with Wang this year?

From watching him work, Wang seems to have a better idea how to keep hitters off balance. Last season, when October rolled around and the Yanks trekked out to Cleveland, the Indians hit Wang around because they knew what was coming. They knew he would throw mainly sinkers, and they knew they could him them. This year, Wang is going more to his slider and his splitters. Considering that he throws in the mid-90s, this diverse repertoire of pitches will keep hitters guessing. Wang is, in other words, really maturing as a pitcher.

On the other side of the ball, the Yankee offense continued to scuffle today. This time, however, the opposing pitcher was the AL Cy Young Award winner. C.C. Sabathia, perhaps auditioning for his future employer, threw a lights-out game, matching Chien-Ming Wang nearly inning for inning. He threw 8 innings, also allowing one hit while walking one and striking out eight. It was a vintage pitchers duel, one missing from the ALDS, and the Yanks emerged on top.

Game Notes:

• Despite Joe Girardi’s post-game comments, The Times story is true: Jorge will go to the DL, and he will go visit Dr. James Andrews. The Yanks’ erstwhile catcher says he doesn’t need surgery, but I would expect a lot of innings at first and DH for Jorge this year.
• To the Yankees’ center fielder: Who are you and what have you done with Melky Cabrera? The Melkman’s fifth home run — the only run of the game — tied him with Jason Giambi for the team lead in homers. He’s on pace to hit 33 this year. If Melky keeps this up, I will be very happy to admit that I was wrong about his future on the Yanks.