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Looking for under-the-radar middle infielders the Yankees could target this offseason

January 3, 2019 by Mike

Earlier this week the Yankees made a big name depth pickup by agreeing to a one-year deal with Troy Tulowitzki. Because the Blue Jays owe him $38M the next two years, the Yankees only have to pay him the $555,000 league minimum. The Blue Jays probably won’t contend in 2019, but gosh, Tulowitzki getting a big hit against the Blue Jays on Toronto’s dime would be some Grade-A trolling.

Anyway, Tulowitzki is a big name and not much more at this point. Sure, we’ve all seen the “he looked great at his recent workout” stories these last few weeks, but we see those about countless players every offseason. Who’s the last player who had a bad workout? Exactly. The fact of the matter is Tulowitzki has not played in an MLB game since July 2017, and, when he did last play, he wasn’t very good. This is nothing more than a league minimum roll of the dice.

Reports indicate the Tulowitzki signing won’t stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, and why would it? You don’t let anyone stand in the way of a Manny Machado signing, especially not a 34-year-old reclamation project who hasn’t played in 18 months. I reckon Tulowitzki won’t stand in the way of anything. If another good middle infield option comes along, the Yankees will pounce, and sort out the roster later. The more good players, the better.

Two weeks ago I tried to dig up some under-the-radar bullpen targets using skills the Yankees value, specifically spin rate and swing-and-miss rate. The Yankees love relievers who can spin the ball and miss bats. Every team does, but the Yankees especially. In last week’s chat, commenter PJ suggested I do something similar for position players, and seeing how the Yankees are set pretty much everywhere except the middle infield, that’s the place to look.

What skills do the Yankees value in hitters? The skills that led them to Luke Voit: Exit velocity and launch angle. They love hitters who hit the ball hard and hit the ball in the air. This past season the Yankees had the fourth highest average exit velocity (89.0 mph) and ninth lowest ground ball rate (41.6%) in baseball. Three-hundred-and-forty-four players batted at least 400 times from 2017-18. Their hard hit and ground ball rates:

The red dots are Yankees. The blue dots are everyone else. There are 22 red dots in the plot and I count eleven that are either in the “lots of hard fly balls” quadrant or very close to it. And you know what? Most of the eleven that aren’t are gone. Those players aren’t on the team anymore. The red dots in the “lots of weak grounders” quadrant include Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Matt Holliday, and Ronald Torreyes. (Torreyes is the red dot at the bottom.)

Hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball in the air are two qualities the Yankees value in their hitters. How else do you think they set a new Major League home run record in 2018? There is more to being a position player than hitting the ball hard — defense matters too, for example — but I figure hitting the ball hard in the air consistently is a good starting point for a potential under-the-radar target search.

Last season 448 players received at least 100 plate appearances. Only 139 of those 448 players combined an above-average hard hit rate with a lower than average ground ball rate, and most of those 139 are the game’s best players. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, etc. Also, not many of them are middle infielders. A few are though, and some of them are available as free agents. Others could be trade targets. Here are five who caught my eye.

SS Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks

Hard Hit Rate: 39.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 40.8%
2018 Slash Line: .234/.290/.411 (84 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .237/.294/.382 (72 wRC+)

The skinny: The Yankees have had interest in Ahmed in the past, and the D’Backs are selling, so he figures to be available. The 28-year-old does his best work in the field — he’s a stellar defensive shortstop — and last season he cranked a career high 16 homers. Not surprisingly, his hard contact rate ticked up and his ground ball rate ticked down.

“I’m trying to do damage every time I go up there. I’m not trying to buy into this, really, launch angle, high fly ball, home run-or-nothing approach,” said Ahmed to Kevin Zimmerman in August. Maybe he wasn’t trying to become a launch angle guy, but that’s what he became, and as a result he had his best offensive season to date. Of course, he was still a below-average hitter overall, but a sub-.300 OBP with 16 homers is better than a sub-.300 OBP with single-digit homers.

Contract status: Ahmed has two years of team control remaining and MLBTR projects a $3.1M salary in 2019. Like I said, the D’Backs are in selling mode now, so I’m certain they’re at least willing to listen to offers for their shortstop. The Yankees have had success with former Arizona shortstops, you know.

Yay or nay? I’m a nay on this. I fully acknowledge that, at worst, Ahmed would play the hell out of shortstop while Didi Gregorius is sidelined, surely better than the 34-year-old Tulowitzki would. I just feel like there are comparable players available for nothing but cash in free agency.

SS Freddy Galvis, Free Agent

Hard Hit Rate: 40.3%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.4%
2018 Slash Line: .248/.309/.382 (85 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .244/.295/.370 (79 wRC+)

The skinny: Galvis is one of those free agents who is comparable to Ahmed. He turned 29 earlier this offseason and his 45 home runs the last three years are somehow 22nd most among middle infielders. Galvis is also a really good defensive shortstop and, for what it’s worth, he’s regarded as an excellent clubhouse dude. As a cheap stopgap, you could do worse. The Yankees have had interest in him.

Contract status: Galvis is a free agent and I imagine he’s looking at a low cost one-year deal. His contract upside is probably the two-year, $8M contract the Red Sox gave Eduardo Nunez last winter. Maybe he could push a team to $10M or $12M. Maybe.

Yay or nay? I think yay. I feel better about Galvis contributing on at least one side of the ball this coming season than I do Tulowitzki, and it is only money, so who cares about that. You’d have to trade prospects to get Ahmed. Galvis is available for cash.

IF Jedd Gyorko, Cardinals

Hard Hit Rate: 37.1%
Ground Ball Rate: 39.9%
2018 Slash Line: .262/.346/.416 (110 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .247/.321/.421 (103 wRC+)

The skinny: I still contend that, among cheap stopgap options, Gyorko is the best middle infield bet for the Yankees. He’s a solid hitter — not a great hitter, but a solid hitter who gets on base and will put a mistake in the seats — and a solid defender who can play second or third, and even short in a pinch. Also, because the Padres are paying a chunk of his salary, his 2019 luxury tax hit will be $920,000. Realistically, Tulowitzki and Gyorko are the only veteran stopgaps available with six-figure luxury tax hits, and I feel much better about Gyorko being productive this coming season than I do Tulowitzki.

Contract status: Like I said, Gyorko’s luxury tax hit is $920,000 for the coming season. Between his $13M salary and the $1M buyout of his $13M club option for 2020, the Yankees would owe him $9M in 2019 once you subtract out the $5M the Padres are paying him. That’s $9M in real money. The luxury tax hit is only $920,000 though. Can’t beat that.

Yay or nay? I’m a hard yay. Well, it depends what the Cardinals want in return, though it seems possible they’ll be willing to unload him in a salary dump deal to free up money for other things. They don’t have a clear path to playing time for Gyorko at the moment. If they insist on a top prospect or an MLB piece, forget it. If they’ll take a second tier prospect or two, sign me up.

2B Rougned Odor, Rangers

Hard Hit Rate: 45.2%
Ground Ball Rate: 41.1%
2018 Slash Line: .253/.326/.424 (97 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .249/.307/.453 (97 wRC+)

The skinny: Odor is a good reminder that development is not linear. He had a 103 wRC+ as a 22-year-old in 2016 and a 58 wRC+ (!) as a 23-year-old in 2017. Last year he bounced back to a 97 wRC+. Odor turns only 25 in February and he already has a pair of 30-homer seasons under his belt, plus he’s a Yankee Stadium friendly left-handed pull hitter. His 2016-18 spray chart:

For whatever reason Odor seems to get on people’s nerves, but step back and look at the big picture, and you’ve got a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder who’s a good defender and has already shown 30-homer power. That’s an interesting little ballplayer, no? The Rangers are rebuilding too. They traded Jurickson Profar and Alex Claudio last month and Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman, and Keone Kela at the deadline. I’m sure they’re open to discussing Odor.

Contract status: The Rangers signed Odor to a six-year contract worth $49.5M during Spring Training 2017. The deal carries an $8.25M luxury tax hit and will pay him $7.5M in 2019, $9M in 2020, and $12M in both 2021 and 2022. There’s also a $13.5M club option ($3M buyout) for 2023. Trade for him right now and his luxury tax hit is lower than his actual salary in three of the four guaranteed years left on the deal.

Yay or nay? I think I’m a yay. Odor is probably worth a deeper look at some point, but again, he’s a soon-to-be 25-year-old middle infielder with Yankee Stadium friendly lefty power and good defensive chops. Remove the name and any preexisting biases and wouldn’t a player like that interest you? The Yankees could, in theory, trade for Odor and move forward with him and Gleyber Torres on the middle infield, and wave goodbye to Gregorius after the season. Ultimately, it depends on the price. I don’t think Texas would give Odor away and I can’t say I’m eager to trade top prospects for him either.

SS Dansby Swanson, Braves

Hard Hit Rate: 35.6%
Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%
2018 Slash Line: .238/.304/.395 (80 wRC+)
2019 Steamer Projection: .248/.322/.390 (87 wRC+)

The skinny: The No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft has thoroughly underwhelmed at the MLB level. Swanson is a .243/.314/.369 (76 wRC+) hitter in over 1,200 big league plate appearances, and, when you look at what guys like Alex Bregman (No. 2 pick in 2015), Andrew Benintendi (No. 7), and Walker Buehler (No. 24) are doing right now, it’s hard not to be disappointed. That said, we are still talking about a 24-year-old kid here, a kid with a lot of talent who’s already established himself as a comfortably above-average defensive shortstop. Swanson barely meets our “better than average hard hit and ground ball rates” criteria, but he does meet it, and it’s not difficult to dream on him even given his pedigree.

Contract status: Swanson has two years and 47 days of service time, so he comes with four seasons of team control. He’ll be a pre-arbitration player in 2019 and arbitration-eligible from 2020-22. Also, Swanson has all three minor league options remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A with ease, if necessary. That would come in handy for a “play Swanson at short until Gregorius returns, then send him down for regular at-bats if he’s still not hitting” scenario.

Yay or nay? I am a definite yay here. This is Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks again, right? A former top prospect who’s struggling to find his way in the big leagues. Buy low on him and hope you can get him to blossom in your uniform. Sometimes it works (Didi, Hicks), sometimes it doesn’t (Dustin Ackley), but it’s worth a try. The Braves could trade Swanson to address another roster need (outfield? bullpen?) and roll with Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo on the infield. Would they sell-low on Swanson? My guess is no, but it never hurts to ask. I’d roll the dice on a young player like this every day of the week.

* * *

Several prominent free agents (Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera) and trade candidates (Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett) appear on our list of hard contact/fly ball hitters, unsurprisingly, but I wanted to focus on under-the-radar types, the guys who aren’t getting a lot of buzz. The Yankees have Tulowitzki as an insurance policy now. I don’t think they’ll let him stand in the way should a better option comes along though. Calling the middle infield situation settled would be unwise.

There is obviously much more to life than hard contact rates and ground ball rates. Defense matters, contact rate matters, plate discipline matters. Generally speaking though, if you hit the ball hard and you can hit it in the air, the Yankees will gravitate toward you. You can’t fake exit velocity — you can fake being a .300 hitter for a week, but you can’t fake a 110 mph exit velocity — and getting the ball in the air against MLB caliber pitching isn’t easy. Guys who can do it consistently are worth considering, especially while Gregorius is sidelined.

DotF: Prospects head home as winter ball seasons wrap up

January 2, 2019 by Mike

The 2018 winter ball regular season is over. The various Caribbean leagues wrapped up their regular seasons over the weekend and the postseason is now getting underway. For us, this will be the final DotF post until the 2019 minor league regular season begins in a few months. The minor league season begins April 4th, one week after the Major League season begins. DotF will return then. Here are some notes before we get to the final performance update until the regular season:

OF Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) is expected to be cleared for on-field activity by Spring Training, Brian Cashman told Bryan Hoch. “I’ve been slowly hitting, throwing, working out. For the most part, I’m ramping up to start doing some overhand BP, just trying to get the timing right, get the facility work out. I’m pretty much full tilt whenever I’m ready to go,” said Frazier during a recent YES Network interview (video link).
Baseball America (subs. req’d) named ten players who could have a breakout 2019 season if they stay healthy. OF Estevan Florial is among them. “The strikeouts and pitch recognition issues are red flags for Florial, but he also broke the hamate bone in his right wrist in May—a possible mitigating factor in Florial’s season, especially given the lack of game power despite above-average raw power. Being a year removed from that injury and facing Double-A pitching for the first time will make 2019 a pivotal year for Florial,” says the write-up.
The MLB.com crew listed one breakout prospect for each team in 2019. RHP Albert Abreu got the nod for the Yankees. “If healthy in ’19, Abreu has three pitches — a fastball, breaking ball and changeup — that all grade out as plus and could help him quickly climb through the Yankees’ system,” says the write-up.
Jonathan Mayo ranked the top 15 prospects traded this offseason. LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 1), RHP Erik Swanson (No. 4), OF Dom Thompson-Williams (No. 7) all made the list. The Yankees sent those three to the Mariners in the James Paxton trade.

Arizona Fall League

IF Thairo Estrada: 19 G, 19-for-80 (.238), 9 R, 2 2B, 7 RBI, 4 BB, 15 K, 1 CS, 1 HBP (.238/.282/.263)
OF Estevan Florial: 21 G, 13-for-73 (.178), 10 R, 2 2B, 2 3B, 8 RBI, 12 BB, 29 K, 2 SB, 1 CS (.178/.294/.260)
1B Steven Sensley: 21 G, 15-for-76 (.197), 4 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 26 K, 1 CS, 2 HBP (.197/.256/.263)
RHP Jordan Foley: 7 G, 7 GS, 19.2 IP, 20 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 19 BB, 20 K, 2 HR, 1 HB, 2 WP (9.15 ERA and 1.98 WHIP) — the Yankees traded him to the Rockies soon after the AzFL season ended
RHP Hobie Harris: 9 G, 15 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 7 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 2 WP (4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP)
RHP Matt Wivinis: 11 G, 12 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 14 K, 1 HB, 1 WP (1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP)
RHP Kyle Zurak: 9 G, 9.1 IP, 16 H, 15 R, 12 ER, 10 BB, 3 K, 3 HR, 3 WP (11.57 ERA and 2.79 WHIP)

[Read more…]

Prospect Profile: Tanner Myatt

January 2, 2019 by Mike

(Robert M Pimpsner/Pinstriped Prospects)

Tanner Myatt | RHP

Background
Myatt, 20, grew up in Spring Lake, North Carolina, near Fayetteville and Fort Bragg. He attended Overhills High School and pitched to a 2.75 ERA with 63 strikeouts and 18 walks in 43.1 innings as a senior, and also hit .312/.365/.395 in 52 plate appearances. Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Myatt as one of the top 500 prospects for the 2016 draft and he went unselected out of high school.

After going undrafted Myatt headed to Florence-Darling Technical College in South Carolina. He put up a 3.76 ERA with 34 strikeouts and 16 walks in 26.1 innings as a freshman. Myatt again went undrafted in 2017 — he wasn’t among Baseball America’s (subs. req’d) top 500 draft prospects — and, as a sophomore, he threw 30 innings with a 1.89 ERA and 39 strikeouts against 20 walks. He made four starts and ten relief appearances.

Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank Myatt among their top 500 prospects for the 2018 draft, though they did rank him the 16th best prospect in South Carolina (subs. req’d). The Yankees selected Myatt with their 11th round pick (337th overall) last summer, making him the highest draft pick in Florence-Darling history. Myatt leveraged a transfer commitment to the College of Charleston into a $147,500 bonus. Every dollar over $125,000 given to a player taken after the tenth round counts against the draft pool, so Myatt counted as $22,500 against the pool.

“We were extremely excited to be able to select Tanner in the 11th round,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer after the draft. “He has a big arm and is an extremely uncomfortable at-bat for right-handed batters. We believe he has a high ceiling and look forward to having our player development staff help him reach it.”

Pro Debut
After signing Myatt was assigned to the rookie Gulf Coast League, where he had a 6.06 ERA (5.07 FIP) with 22 strikeouts and nine walks in 18.1 innings. That works out to 30.8% strikeout rate and a 10.8% walk rate. He made five starts and four relief appearances. Myatt closed out his regular season with one appearance for Short Season Staten Island, striking out two and walking two in two scoreless innings. He then participated in Instructional League after the season.

Scouting Report
Myatt is certainly a pitching prospect you can dream on. The kid stands 6-foot-7 and 220 lbs. and he came out of college with a fastball that averages 96-99 mph and touches 101 mph. According to Shaun Savarese, Myatt started training at a local pitching biomechanics lab (N.C. Biomechanical) during the summer between his sophomore and junior years of high school. I reckon that helped him develop his premium arm strength.

In addition to the velocity, Myatt’s fastball has explosive life through the strike zone, so it plays even better than the radar gun reading. Add in the fact he’s releasing the ball that much closer to the plate thanks to his height, and Myatt’s heater is a truly elite offering. He pairs it with a promising curveball and changeup, the former of which has flashed out-pitch potential. Myatt also threw a cutter in college but it seems it is no longer part of his repertoire.

Myatt has already made strides gaining consistency with his delivery since the draft, but he is young and incredibly tall, and it typically takes tall pitchers some time to develop solid mechanics and master control of those long limbs. The Yankees have plenty of experience with tall pitching prospects (Dellin Betances, Domingo Acevedo, Andrew Brackman, Freicer Perez, etc.), but everyone is different, and Myatt will develop at his own pace.

Because he’s so big and his delivery can fall out of whack, Myatt does have trouble throwing strikes, and that is his primary development goal going forward. That and improve his curveball and changeup. Firm up the delivery and learn how to get the ball over the plate consistently. Given the quality of his fastball and overall stuff, Myatt does not need to develop above-average command (it would be cool if he did). He’ll get swings and misses and weak contact simply by being around the strike zone.

2019 Outlook
I expect Myatt to begin this coming season in Extended Spring Training for three reasons. One, he’s a big dude who needs mechanical refinement, and ExST is the best place to do that. Two, Myatt doesn’t have much pitching experience. From 2015-18, he threw 153.2 total innings between high school, college, and pro ball (plus a handful more in Instructs). His career high is the 48.1 innings he threw between college and his pro debut last year. I can’t see the Yankees throwing him right into full season ball. And three, Myatt’s still pretty young. He doesn’t turn 21 until May. Given all that, ExST to start with an assignment to one of the short season leagues in June makes the most sense for Myatt in 2019.

My Take
I knew nothing about Myatt when he was drafted and I’ve very quickly fallen in love after doing some research. I’m a sucker for big power pitching prospects and he is right out of central casting. Myatt has a long way to go between where he is now and the big leagues, but the raw tools are very impressive, and you can’t teach his size and arm strength. I’m not sure Myatt will ever develop good enough control and command to start. In short relief bursts though? He could be a monster. Myatt’s is a classic high risk, high reward type with significant upside. I’m not sure you could do much better than this with an 11th round pick and a $147,500 bonus.

Baseball’s newest contract trend and what it could mean for the Yankees

January 2, 2019 by Mike

One of the quietest major free agent negotiations in recent memory is coming to an end today. The Mariners and Yusei Kikuchi agreed to a unique four-year contract earlier this week and it’ll be made official today, at some point before his 30-day negotiating period closes at 5pm ET. Kikuchi spent the last few weeks meeting with teams in Los Angeles and there were no leaks or rumors whatsoever. It was very quiet.

Kikuchi’s contract is unusual. For all intents and purposes it is a three-year contract, and one of three things can happen after year three. One, the Mariners could exercise a four-year club option to keep Kikuchi. Two, Kikuchi could pick up a one-year player option. Or three, Kikuchi can become a free agent. It has to happen in that order too. The Mariners get to decide on the club option before Kikuchi gets to decide on the player option.

The contract structure is unusual but it is not unprecedented. The Phillies signed Jake Arrieta to a similar contract last offseason. Arrieta got what amounted to a two-year contract, and, after year two, the Phillies have a three-year club option and Arrieta has a one-year player option. The common thread: Scott Boras. Both Kikuchi and Arrieta are Boras clients, so that’s now two of these unique contracts he’s brokered.

For the player, the contract structure allows him to either test free agency again in the not-too-distant future or force the team to keep him long-term, with the player option serving as an insurance policy. Could Kikuchi have received seven guaranteed years with an opt-out after three? Could Arrieta have gotten five guaranteed years with an opt-out after two? Almost certainly not. This contract structure at least gives them a chance at that long-term commitment.

For the team, the contract structure creates flexibility. They can walk away if things aren’t working out or keep the player long-term without the hassle of another free agent bidding war. The Mariners could keep Kikuchi for seven years or they could dump him after four. The Phillies could keep Arrieta for five years or they could dump him after three. I’m not sure I’d call it a win-win, but both sides do seem to come out okay here.

Baseball is a copycat sport and nowhere is that more true than in free agency. Opt-outs are now commonplace — they’ve been around a while but it wasn’t until CC Sabathia that they really became popular — and, soon enough, these unique contracts with multi-year club options will catch on around the league. Boras is no dope. Long-term deals are becoming harder to find and he came up with a way to give his clients a chance at those years.

Boras represents Bryce Harper and I’ve assumed Harper’s contract would include opt-outs and salary escalators and all sorts of complicating factors. Perhaps it’ll be structured like Kikuchi’s and Arrieta’s. The Yankees have not been connected to Harper much at all this winter, but, at some point, a contract structure like this will find its way onto their payroll. It’s inevitable. We’re going to see more and more contracts like this going forward.

The obvious question: What are the luxury tax implications? Well, it’s a tad complicated. For starters, the fourth year of Kikuchi’s contract and the third year of Arrieta’s contract are considered a “dual option year,” which is treated like a player option for luxury tax purposes. From Article XXIII(E)(5)(a)(iii) of the Collective Bargaining Agreement:

A “Dual Option Year” shall mean a championship season covered by a Uniform Player’s Contract in which the amount payable pursuant to paragraph 2 of the Contract becomes due or guaranteed at the election of either the Player or the Club. Salaries under any such Contract shall be calculated as if the Dual Option Year is a Player Option Year.

For a mutual option to kick in, both the team and player have to exercise their part of the option. For a dual option, only one side has to exercise their option. The Mariners could lock in the fourth year of Kikuchi’s contract by exercising the four-year club option. Kikuchi could lock in the fourth year with his player option. Only one needs to happen. Not both. Got it? Good.

That dual option year is treated as a player option year for luxury tax purposes. Here’s what the CBA says about player options. The relevant text from Article XXIII(E)(5)(a)(ii):

A Player Option Year shall be considered a “Guaranteed Year” if, pursuant to the Player’s right to elect or subject to his right to nullify, the terms of that year are guaranteed within the definition in Section A(8); provided, however, that a Player Option Year shall not be considered a Guaranteed Year if the payment the Player is to receive if he declines to exercise his option or nullifies the championship season is more than 50% of the Base Salary payable for that championship season.

In English, that means the player option year is considered a guaranteed contract year for luxury tax purposes as long as the buyout is less than 50% of the money the player is walking away from. That’s why the 2021-27 seasons of Giancarlo Stanton’s contract are considered guaranteed years for luxury tax purposes. The buyout ($0) is less than 50% of what he’d leave on the table, so they count in full.

We don’t know the year-to-year finances of Kikuchi’s contract. We do know Arrieta’s though, and his player option includes no buyout. That means it is less than 50% the player option year salary and thus a guaranteed season for luxury tax purposes. Let’s lay this out using Arrieta as an example since we know the financial terms of his contract. Here are his year-to-year salaries:

2018: $30M (guaranteed year)
2019: $25M (guaranteed year)
2020: $20M (one-year player option or first year of three-year, $60M club option)
2021: $20M (second year of three-year, $60M club option)
2022: $20M (third year of three-year, $60M club option)

During the first three years of Arrieta’s contract, his luxury tax hit is $25M ($30M + $25M + $20M divided by three years). The 2020 dual option year is treated as a player option year and is considered guaranteed because the buyout is less than 50% of the salary. If Arrieta exercises his player option, his 2020 luxury tax hit is unchanged. But, as I understand it, if the Phillies exercise their three-year club option, his luxury tax hit in 2020 gets recalculated and becomes $20M (the first year of $60M divided by three years), so the team gets away with $115M in real salary only counting as $110M against the luxury tax ($25M + $25M + $20M + $20M + $20M across five years). Hey, every little bit counts.

In Arrieta’s case, the club option would lead to luxury tax savings down the road because the option year salaries are lower than the guaranteed year salaries. In Kikuchi’s case, the club option would lead to a luxury tax increase down the road because the option year salaries (reportedly $16.5M annually) are higher than the guaranteed year salaries (reportedly $14M annually). This can work both ways. You can manipulate these multi-year club options into a lower luxury tax hit now or later. MLB will flag anything that appears to be blatant luxury tax circumvention, so you can only push this so far.

Also, that note about the buyout having to be less than 50% of the money the player is walking away from for the player option to count as a guaranteed year? Adding a huge buyout (at least 50% of the base salary) doesn’t help the team’s luxury tax situation at all. Let’s hypothetically restructure Arrieta’s contract, shall we? Check out these year-to-year salaries:

2018: $25M
2019: $20M
2020: $20M player option ($10M buyout) or first year of a three-year, $60M club option
2021: $20M (second year of three-year, $60M club option)
2022: $20M (second year of three-year, $60M club option)

All we did was take $5M from 2018 and $5M in 2019 and convert it into a $10M buyout for the 2020 player option. Since the buyout is at least 50% of the total value of the player option, it does not count as a guaranteed year now. The money counts! But the year does not. Arrieta’s luxury tax hit goes from $25M (the original $30M + $25M + $20M across three years) to $27.5M ($25M + $20M + $10M across two years). For the team, losing the guaranteed year for luxury tax purposes hurts more than reducing the salary that is considered guaranteed for luxury tax purposes helps.

There’s also this: What if Arrieta picks up the player option in this scenario? Under his current deal, he’d get $75M across three years ($30M + $25M + $20M). Under our restructured deal above, he’d only get $65M across three years ($25M + $20M + $20M). The buyout goes away. The only way Arrieta doesn’t lose money with the restructured contract is if the team declines the club option and he declines the player option, and what are the chances of that? The CBA is pretty airtight. The 50% thing doesn’t help the team any with their luxury tax situation.

Alright, so what does this have to do with the Yankees? That was all a very long way of saying there is a new contract trend in baseball, and eventually it will hit the Yankees. There is some luxury tax wiggle room here but not much, which applies to every contract, really. This contract structure doesn’t really result in significant luxury tax savings but it is a potential avenue to acquire talent. Again, Bryce Harper is a Boras client, and Boras is the mastermind behind these new contracts. It may be only a matter of weeks until we seen another deal like this.

For now, these contracts are just a new way of doing business, and they don’t have an immediate impact on the Yankees. Not unless they trade for Kikuchi or Arrieta. At some point though, the time will come for the Yankees to negotiate a deal like this, and perhaps they’ll find a way to make it work to their advantage with regards to the luxury tax. Trading increased flexibility for having to make a decision about the player’s long-term future with your organization sooner than you’d probably like will become the new normal, and eventually the Yankees will get hooked in.

Thoughts six weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training

January 2, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training is rapidly approaching. Not rapidly enough, but exactly six weeks from today pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin the long journey that is the 2019 season. I can’t wait. I enjoyed the early offseason downtime and am now really starting to miss baseball. Only six weeks (and a lot of free agent signings) to go until camp begins. Anyway, here are some scattered thoughts.

1. It feels like Manny Machado is holding up the offseason right now, doesn’t it? He’s expected to make his decision at some point soon, maybe even by the end of the week. Once Machado picks a team Bryce Harper’s free agency will begin in earnest, and the teams that miss out on Machado will look for other ways to improve. The Phillies, for example, could pivot to Harper should they miss out on Machado, or they could spread the money around and sign Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, and others. The Yankees haven’t done anything notable since re-signing J.A. Happ and that suggests they are waiting for Machado to make a decision before moving on to other matters. Signing Machado would push the Yankees over the $206M luxury tax threshold, perhaps even into the second luxury tax tier, at which point one of two things will happen. One, they’ll scale back on spending (or even look to unload salary) to reduce the luxury tax burden, or two, they’ll say screw it, we’re already over the luxury tax threshold, so we might as well go bonkers. In that case, they could go after two high-end relievers and try to woo them with higher salaries on short-term contracts to reduce the luxury tax burden in future years. We’ll see. For now, it feels like all of baseball is waiting for Machado to pick a team, and once he does that, the rest of the offseason will begin.

2. I have no problem at all with the Troy Tulowitzki signing. Since the Yankees only have to pay him the league minimum, the only risk is that he plays terribly and costs the Yankees some runs on the field, which is a risk that exists with every free agent, low cost or otherwise. (What, you don’t think Freddy Galvis or Jose Iglesias could do that?) There’s zero chance Tulowitzki will stand in the way of a potential Machado signing and there’s no way he makes it more likely the Yankees will trade Miguel Andujar. “We signed this 34-year-old reclamation project who hasn’t played in 18 months, so now we can afford to trade the 23-year-old reigning Rookie of the Year runner-up,” is not a thought process that happens in a Major League front office. The players most affected by this signing are Tyler Wade and Hanser Alberto. The depth guys. If the Yankees do end up playing Tulowitzki on an everyday basis while Didi Gregorius is out — that assumes Tulowitzki makes it through Spring Training in one piece, which is far from certain — my preference would be Gleyber Torres at short and Tulowitzki at second. I think that’s the best defensive alignment. Then again, Tulowitzki has never played second, so he might actually be worse there than at short between diminished skills and inexperience. I dunno. I’d just prefer Gleyber at short. Tulowitzki strikes me as one of those signings people will complain about in January (because people complain about every transaction) only to complain again during the season when the Yankees aren’t giving him enough playing time after he hit that big home run or something.

3. I don’t expect it to happen but I would be cool with the Yankees carrying Sonny Gray into Spring Training and the regular season. I say that as someone who’s been a Gray fan for a while, so take it with a grain of salt. He was awful last year, no doubt about it. I also feel like it will be close to impossible to find someone as talented as Gray to serve as the sixth starter/swingman. You know the Yankees are going to need a sixth starter at some point this coming season. A sixth, seventh, and probably even an eighth starter. That’s baseball. Pitchers get hurt. I’d feel better about plugging Gray into the rotation to cover for the inevitable injury that I would Luis Cessa or Domingo German. Plus, with the way Brian Cashman has been dumping on him these last few weeks, I imagine Gray will be pitching with a big chip on his shoulder this coming year, no matter what uniform he’s wearing. I do think the Yankees and Gray are beyond the point of no return. I expect him to be traded. I’m just saying that I don’t want to the Yankees to force a trade and move him for pennies on the dollar just for the sake of moving him. Keeping him as a sixth starter/swingman is perfectly reasonable to me. There’s no such thing as too much pitching depth. I mean, what are the chances the Yankees trade Gray, then at some point at midseason we’re all wishing they’d held onto him? Pretty darn good, I think. Like I said though, I think Sonny’s a goner. There’s are too many signs pointing to a trade.

4. I think we’ve reached the point where J.T. Realmuto is overrated. I mean, he’s obviously very good. Catchers who hit .277/.340/.484 (126 wRC+) are very hard to find. FanGraphs had Realmuto at +4.8 WAR last season and Baseball Reference had him at +4.3 WAR. Baseball Prospectus had him at +4.3 WARP, and that includes pitch-framing. (fWAR and bWAR do not include framing.) That’s really good! But also, when a guy with a 126 wRC+ and +4-ish WAR is considered the best player at a position, it says more about the position that it does his greatness. Catchers stink right now. All around the league. If you didn’t know any better, you’d think Realmuto is peak Buster Posey with the way he’s been talked about this offseason. He’s been involved in so many trade rumors these last few weeks — especially during the Winter Meetings, when seemingly every hour it was something new — and, when that happens, a player’s value gets inflated. Realmuto’s really good. He’s also getting overrated and is probably the worst “best catcher in baseball” we’ve seen since before Mike Piazza. Gary Sanchez is two years younger than Realmuto and he’s a year removed from a .278/.345/.531 (129 wRC+) batting line and +4.8 WARP. Given the state of catching around baseball, I’ll happily hitch my wagon to Sanchez going forward, thank you very much.

5. A few weeks ago I wrote about potential under-the-radar bullpen targets using spin rates and swing-and-miss rates, and Cody Allen was among the names my search spit out. As Dom noted, Allen was terrible last season. He threw 67 innings with a 27.7% strikeout rate and set new career worsts in ERA (4.70), FIP (4.56 FIP), walk rate (11.4%), ground ball rate (30.0%), and home run rate (1.48 HR/9). Allen was terrible last year. That said, he just turned 30, so it’s not like he’s over the hill, and he is a year removed from a 2.94 ERA (3.19 FIP) with very good strikeout (32.6%) and walk (7.4%) rates. The spin rates and whiff rates check in as comfortably above-average too, even during last season. Squint your eyes and there’s some bounceback potential here. Allen’s been pitching in high-leverage situations for a while now — if you’re into this sorta thing, he struck out 24 in 13.2 scoreless postseason innings during Cleveland’s march to Game Seven of the 2016 World Series — so pitching in the late innings wouldn’t be a new experience. He seems like someone who could appeal to the Yankees as a buy-low candidate. My hunch is some team will give Allen a nice little two-year deal and promise him their closer’s role (Angels? Padres?), so getting him on a one-year “prove yourself” contract may not be possible. Besides, pitchers usually don’t come to Yankee Stadium and the AL East when they’re trying to rebuild value on a short-term contract. I dunno, Allen just strikes me as someone who has more appeal than last year’s numbers may lead to believe. The analytic side of things check out well and point to bounceback potential.

6. Matt’s post over the weekend prompted me to look at the schedule and holy cow, the Yankees will have it very easy coming out of the gate. Here are the first six series of the 2019 regular season:

Three games vs. Orioles
Three games vs. Tigers
Three games at Orioles
Three games at Astros
Two games vs. Red Sox
Four games vs. Royals

The Yankees will play five of the first 18 games of the new season against contending teams. That’s it. The Orioles, Tigers, and Royals aren’t even pretending to be competitive. An easy schedule does not automatically equal wins. We all know that. Who can forget the Yankees losing three of four at home to the eventual 115-loss Orioles last April? Any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game. On paper though, wow do the Yankees have a chance to get off to a great start next season. It would be nice to have other teams playing catch-up in the AL East instead being the team trying to make up ground early in the season, you know? Hopefully the Yankees can take advantage of that easy April schedule, because the rest of the schedule will be that much tougher.

7. I’m not going to link to it because it was obviously done for attention, but a week or two ago a Hall of Fame voter published a piece saying he would not vote for Mariano Rivera. He’s not voting for anyone. He’s not going to send in his ballot, which is different than a sending in a blank ballot. A blank ballot counts toward each player’s vote total. Abstaining from voting means the ballot is not sent in and not counted. It’s like the ballot doesn’t exist. Anyway, I mention this because, within that piece, it was noted Rivera’s career win-loss record is 82-60. Wins and losses are a terrible way to evaluate pitchers but that stat jumped out to me. It’s really hard for a closer to get a win! Typically, when the closer enters the game, his team already has the lead. When a closer gets a win, it usually means one of two things happened. Either he entered into a tied game and his team scored in the next half-inning, or he blew the save and his team retook the lead. Closers get losses all the time. Wins? Those are hard to do. Here are the career win-loss records of the top five pitchers on the all-time saves leaderboard:

Mariano Rivera (652 saves): 82-60
Trevor Hoffman (601 saves): 61-75
Lee Smith (478 saves): 71-92
Francisco Rodriguez (437 saves): 52-53
John Franco (424 saves): 90-87

Rivera is 22 games over .500. The other four are a combined 33 games under .500. And that makes sense, right? It’s much easier for a closer to get a loss than it is a win. The nature of the job makes it difficult for the closer to get a win. Despite that, Rivera managed to go 82-60 in his career, including 79-57 as a reliever. I’m not really sure where I’m going with this. I just thought it was amazing Rivera managed to finish his career 22 games over .500. It says more about his ability to avoid losses than his ability to rack up wins.

8. This will be my fifth year in the BBWAA and that means I’m halfway to having a Hall of Fame ballot. That is pretty bonkers. Never in a million years did I think I would end up here, even halfway to a Hall of Fame vote, when we started RAB way back when. Anyway, I don’t have a Hall of Fame vote this year, but, if I did, here are the ten players who’d get my vote (listed alphabetically):

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Gary Sheffield
Larry Walker

Obviously performance-enhancing drugs are not a dealbreaker for me. As long as there is baseball and sports in general, players are going to cheat. That’s just the way it is. I’d like it if they didn’t, but they do, and it’s silly to pretend otherwise. I’m not sure why voters feel keeping players out of the Hall of Fame is an acceptable punishment for PED use (or even PED suspicion) but I don’t agree with it at all. It’s MLB’s job to punish those guys. Not the Hall of Fame’s. Bonds, Clemens, and Manny are easy calls for me. No-brainers. So is Rivera. Halladay, Martinez, Mussina, and Walker were among the very best players of their generation at their positions and they belong in Cooperstown in my opinion. Did you know Walker is fourth among outfielders in WAR since the mound was lowered 50 seasons ago? It’s true. I know there’s the Coors Field question but a) only 31% of his career plate appearances came in Denver, and b) I remember watching Walker and thinking he was a Hall of Fame talent. I am absolutely amazed that, as of this writing, Omar Vizquel has almost twice as many Hall of Fame votes as Rolen. Rolen was every bit as good defensively at third base as Vizquel was at short, and he was a far superior hitter. We’re talking .281/.364/.490 (122 wRC+) vs .272/.336/.352 (83 wRC+). I’m not sure why Vizquel is getting so much more Hall of Fame love. The tenth spot came down to a few different players and I ultimately went with Sheffield. He has a reputation for being a jerk, no doubt about that, but man could he hit. Career .292/.393/.514 (141 wRC+) batting line with 509 homers and, despite that ferocious swing, more walks (13.5%) than strikeouts (10.7%). That will never look out of place in the Hall of Fame. I admit I didn’t put a ton of thought into this hypothetical ballot because, well, it’s hypothetical and I have no real responsibility to be thorough. Not yet. I promise you this much: If the time ever comes and I have a Hall of Fame vote (or even an award vote), I’ll write something explaining my ballot. Every single time. I think the voting process needs more transparency and accountability — for what it’s worth, the BBWAA proposed to make every Hall of Fame ballot public a few years ago, but the Hall of Fame rejected it — and I’ll hold myself to that standard when the time comes.

Revisiting the MLBTR Archives: January 2014

January 1, 2019 by Mike

Welcome to 2019. The present day Yankees are looking for bullpen help and a middle infielder to replace the injured Didi Gregorius. The 2013 going on 2014 Yankees were looking for rotation help and a Robinson Cano replacement at this moment five years ago. They went 85-77 the previous year and missed the postseason for the first time since 2008, and it was clear they needed more help to return to October in 2014.

At this point of the 2013-14 offseason the Yankees had already made most of their major moves. Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Carlos Beltran had all been signed and both Derek Jeter and Hiroki Kuroda were re-signed. The Yankees still had to figure out second base and they needed to get Kuroda, CC Sabathia, and Ivan Nova some rotation help. On the first day of 2019, it’s time to go back in time five years to January 2014. Here’s the latest edition of our MLB Trade Rumors archives series.

January 10th, 2014: Yankees Sign Matt Thornton

More than three weeks after the initial agreement was reached, the Yankees have officially announced their two-year deal with left-hander Matt Thornton. The longtime White Sox hurler will reportedly receive a $7MM guarantee. Thornton is represented by Diamond Sports Management.

Man, I’d forgotten Matt Thornton was a Yankee. He had that great stretch with the White Sox from 2008-10 (2.70 ERA and 2.46 FIP) before gradual decline started to set in. Thornton’s surface numbers with the Yankees were pretty good (2.55 ERA and 2.73 FIP in 24.2 innings) but he had some trouble with inherited runners and a few notable meltdowns. The Yankees let him and the $4.5M remaining on his contract go to the Nationals on a straight August trade waiver claim. Salary dumped him. Those multi-year contracts for left-on-left relievers didn’t out well for the Yankees for a while there.

January 11th, 2014: Alex Rodriguez Suspension Now 162 Games

The result of Alex Rodriguez‘s appeal is in, and he will be suspended for 162 games, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Rodriguez plans to appeal the suspension in federal court. The suspension will cover the full 2014 season, and also the postseason, Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown tweets. The suspension previously was 211 games. Even though the suspension was reduced, the decision by arbitrator Fredric Horowitz appears to be a victory for Major League Baseball, which won a suspension for A-Rod that goes far beyond those of other first-time PED offenders.

What a nightmare this was. The appeal process was ugly — A-Rod did all sorts of radio interviews and bashed the entire process while it was still ongoing (at one point he claimed the Yankees made him play through his hip injury hoping it would end his career) — and eventually his suspension was reduced. He then filed lawsuits against the Yankees, MLB, the MLBPA, and some others. They were later dropped. For a while there though, Rodriguez’s appeal and the fallout was ugly. The ugliest period for the Yankees in a long time.

Two weird things about A-Rod’s suspension. One, the suspension covered 162 games, but the Yankees still had to pay Rodriguez for the team’s 20 off-days in 2014. For real. That amounted to a little more than $3M. And two, A-Rod could’ve still gone to Tampa and been a full participant in Spring Training, which would’ve been a major distraction. Ultimately, he announced he wouldn’t go to camp when he dropped all his lawsuits and whatnot. Imagine though? A-Rod suspended for the regular season but still a regular in Spring Training? That would’ve been a hoot.

January 11th, 2014: Minor Moves: Coello, Braddock, Keppel, Manzella

The Yankees have signed righty reliever Robert Coello to a minor-league deal, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy tweets. Coello, 29, pitched 17 innings for the Angels in 2013, posting a 3.71 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.

Oh man, I totally forgot about Coello. He never did pitch for the Yankees — Coello had a 1.69 ERA (3.08 FIP) in 32 innings with Triple-A Scranton before being released at midseason — but he was notable because he threw what amounted to a knuckle-forkball. Coello gripped it like a forkball but the ball had no spin like a knuckleball. The statheads nicknamed it the WTForkball. Look:

Coello hooked on with the Orioles after the Yankees released him, then he spent 2015 in Triple-A with the Giants and Rangers, and 2016 in Korea. He’s been out of baseball since. Thanks to the WTForkball, Coello struck out 39 (and walked 17) in 29 career MLB innings with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Angels.

January 11th, 2014: Reynolds Unlikely To Return To Yankees

Mark Reynolds is unlikely to return to the Yankees, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets, citing a source who says the Yanks have only offered the infielder a minor-league deal. “He won’t take that,” Feinsand says.

The Brewers gave Reynolds a one-year deal worth $2M about a week later and he went on to hit .196/.287/.394 (87 wRC+) with 22 homers in 2014. Five players batted 140 times as a right-handed hitter for the 2014 Yankees. Their numbers:

Francisco Cervelli: 130 wRC+ (in 162 plate appearances)
Mark Teixeira: 97 wRC+ (in 146 plate appearances as a right-handed batter)
Derek Jeter: 75 wRC+ (in 634 plate appearances)
Alfonso Soriano: 66 wRC+ (in 238 plate appearances)
Carlos Beltran: 52 wRC+ (in 153 plate appearances as a right-handed batter)

Reynolds was terrible in 2014 and he would’ve been the third best right-handed hitter on the Yankees. Woof. Reynolds is still around though. Dude hit .248/.328/.476 (112 wRC+) with 13 homers as a part-timer for the Nationals this season, and even had a 5-for-5 with 10 RBI game. Twelve years in the big leagues, six homers away from 300 for his career, and nearly $30M in contracts. Not too shabby.

January 12th, 2014: Yankees To Sign Scott Sizemore

3:50pm: Sizemore has opt-out dates of May 1 and August 1, if he isn’t on the Yankees’ 25-man roster, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. In a second tweet, Sherman reports Sizemore had two Major League offers, but saw more opportunities with the Yankees.

10:55am: The Yankees have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder Scott Sizemore, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).

The 2014 Yankees had such a crummy infield that I was on this very website practically begging them to give Sizemore more playing time. He hit .266/.329/.433 (108 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton that season and went 5-for-16 (.313) in his brief big league stint with the Yankees. Once you’ve begged for Scott Sizemore to get playing time, potentially replacing Didi Gregorius with Tyler Wade or Hanser Alberto doesn’t seem so bad.

January 13th, 2014: Yankees Sign Brian Roberts

JAN. 13: After nearly a month, Roberts’ deal with the Yankees is now official, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). Roberts will receive Alex Rodriguez‘s 40-man roster spot.

Going from Robinson Cano to late career Brian Roberts was like going from, well, Aaron Judge to Shane Robinson. It was bad. Roberts hit .237/.300/.360 (86 wRC+) in 348 plate appearances for the Yankees, and he was very uneven. He hit a tolerable .247/.318/.367 (95 wRC+) in April and May and a dreadful .226/.281/.352 (77 wRC+) in June and July before being released. Roberts did do this though …

… and that was pretty cool. No one picked Roberts up after the Yankees cut him loose and he retired as a career .276/.346/.409 (101 wRC+) hitter with 1,527 hits and +30 WAR. Nice little career he had. Too bad injuries sabotaged his early 30s. Roberts could’ve been up over 2,000 hits otherwise.

January 13th, 2014: Yankees Have Asked Padres About Trade For Infielder

The Yankees have inquired with the Padres about the possibility of trading for some of San Diego’s infield depth, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The most realistic target is utilityman Logan Forsythe, according to Morosi.

At the time the Padres had Forsythe, Chase Headley, Jedd Gyorko, and Everth Cabrera on the infield. The Yankees eventually acquired Headley and had on-and-off interest in Gyorko and Forsythe over the years. I distinctly remember folks in our comments and on social media first wondering why the Yankees wanted Forsythe (73 wRC+ in 2013), then wondering why the Yankees didn’t get him from San Diego after he broke out with the Rays a year later (125 wRC+ in 2015). Good times.

January 16th, 2014: Yankees Release Vernon Wells

JANUARY 16: The Yankees have released Wells, according to the MLB.com transactions page.

Wells was designated for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot for Thornton and there as much rejoicing. Wells hit .233/.282/.349 (77 wRC+) with the Yankees in 2013 — that includes a .216/.258/.296 (49 wRC+) batting line after April — and no team signed him after he was cut loose. Probably not a good sign that so many 2013-14 Yankees were immediately shuffled into forced retirement after being released, huh?

January 22nd, 2014: Yankees Sign Masahiro Tanaka

After months of drama and speculation, the Masahiro Tanaka saga has come to an end. The Yankees today officially announced that they’ve signed the Japanese righty to a seven-year contract that is reportedly worth a massive $155MM. The contract provides Tanaka with an opt-out clause after the fourth season and also contains a full no-trade clause. Tanaka is represented by Excel Sports Management — the same agents that negotiated Clayton Kershaw‘s record-setting extension.

It’s easy to forget how young Tanaka was at the time. On the day he officially signed with the Yankees, Tanaka was 131 days older than Luis Severino is today. The Yankees were getting the prime years of a very talented pitcher — a talented pitcher with no MLB track record, but a talented pitcher nonetheless — and, by and large, Tanaka has delivered. In the first five years of his contract he’s pitched to a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) and 3.80 FIP with +15.6 WAR in 824.2 innings. Over the last five seasons Tanaka ranks 21st in WAR despite being 34th in innings. And he’s delivered in the postseason too. Imagine where the Yankees would be without him the last few years? In an era when most big money pitching contracts become disasters, Tanaka’s been well worth the money.

January 22nd, 2014: Yankees Designate David Huff For Assignment

The Yankees announced that they’ve designated left-hander David Huff for assignment in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for Masahiro Tanaka.

Huff somehow had two stints with the Yankees. He threw 34.2 innings with a 4.67 ERA (4.95 FIP) in pinstripes in 2013, was traded to the Giants for cash after this DFA, then was reacquired for cash in June 2014. Huff had a 1.85 ERA (4.00 FIP) in 39 innings in his second stint with the Yankees. David Huff really had a 3.18 ERA (4.45 FIP) in 73.2 innings with New York? Who knew? This past season he had a 4.87 ERA in 94.1 innings for the Yakult Swallows in Japan.

January 22nd, 2014: AL East Notes: Carp, Blue Jays, Yankees, Robertson

David Robertson will be the Yankees’ closer in 2014, Steinbrenner told Sherman and Dan Martin of the New York Post. Cashman wasn’t quite as firm during a media conference, saying that Robertson is “obviously…the odds-on favorite” but not ruling out any further bullpen additions.

Everyone freaked out — understandably, I think — about having to replace Mariano Rivera in 2014, yet Robertson made it easy. He had a typical Robertson season after moving from the eighth inning into the ninth inning. And, really, the Yankees haven’t had much trouble replacing Rivera at all. At least not during the regular season. Their post-Rivera closers:

2014: Robertson
2015: Andrew Miller
2016: Aroldis Chapman (then Dellin Betances after the trade)
2017-18: Chapman

There have of course been some hiccups along the way — closers always have hiccups, they’re inevitable during a 162-game season — but, by and large, the Yankees have fared pretty well in the ninth inning since Rivera retired. Things aren’t quite as automatic in the postseason and that’s the key difference. There will never be another like Mo in October.

January 27th, 2014: Minor Moves: Chris Leroux, Pete Orr, Blake Davis

29-year-old righty Chris Leroux has inked a minor league deal with the Yankees, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. The Canadian hurler has 69 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, all in relief, over which he has maintained a 5.56 ERA and 8.1 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9.

The Yankees signed Leroux after he allowed 26 runs in 22 innings for the Yakult Swallows in Japan in 2013. He spend most of the 2014 season with Triple-A Scranton (4.94 ERA and 4.25 FIP) but he did manage to find himself in the Bronx for two appearances. Two innings, five runs. Leroux hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since and he’s been out of baseball since 2016. David Hale was the 2018 Chris Leroux. I wonder who 2019’s Chris Leroux will be?

January 29th, 2014: East Notes: Kimbrel, Rodney, Yanks, Phils, Red Sox

Also from Martino, the Yankees haven’t had any talk with Rodney since one “very preliminary” discussion back in November. While the team is aware of its bullpen holes, a Major League source tells Martino that they lack the payroll flexibility to address the ‘pen after signing Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees are hoping that Dellin Betances can serve as a power reliever, Martino adds.

Geez, I don’t remember the Yankees being in on Fernando Rodney at all. He tends to make things interesting and I’ve always kinda hoped the Yankees would steer clear because of that. Rodney had that rebirth season with the Rays in 2012 (0.60 ERA and 2.13 FIP) and was again pretty good with Tampa in 2013 (3.38 ERA and 2.84 FIP). The Mariners gave him two years and $14M and hey, he saved 48 games with a 2.85 ERA (2.83 FIP) in 2014. Things have gone downhill a bit since then. Still pretty amazing 41-year-old Fernando Rodney was out there slinging 95 mph fastballs in 2018. May we all have that sort of longevity.

Reports: Yusei Kikuchi agrees to four-year deal with Mariners

January 1, 2019 by Mike

11:46am ET: It’s a complicated contract. Kikuchi gets three years and $43M, reports Jeff Passan. After that, the Mariners could retain him with a four-year club option worth $66M. If they do not, Kikuchi could enter free agency or exercise a one-year player option at $13M. The deal can max out at seven years and $109M. For release fee purposes, it’s a $56M guarantee, so the Mariners owe Seibu a $10.275M release fee (I think).

9:30am ET: According to multiple reports, Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has agreed to a four-year contract with the Mariners. The Seibu Lions posted Kikuchi last month and his 30-day negotiating period was due to close at 5pm ET tomorrow. There’s no word on the money yet. My guess is the contract falls in the $60M neighborhood. We’ll see.

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has ripped apart his roster this offseason, including trading James Paxton the Yankees. On the surface signing Kikuchi may not make much sense, but he is only 27, and he could be part of the team’s next contending core. Kikuchi helps advance the rebuild. How often do you get a chance to acquire a talented 27-year-old lefty? Exactly.

The Mariners have a rich history with Japanese players (Ichiro Suzuki, Hisashi Iwakuma, Kenji Johjima, etc.) and Seattle has a large Japanese community, which I’m sure appealed to Kikuchi. Also, the Mariners will open the 2019 regular season with a two-game series against the Athletics in Tokyo, so that’s cool. Kikuchi could make his first start for the team in Japan.

A few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted he’d spoken to Scott Boras about Kikuchi and that the Yankees scouted the southpaw “extensively” last season. I get the sense the door on Kikuchi closed (if it were ever open to start with) once the Yankees re-signed J.A. Happ to round out the rotation. They probably weren’t going to spend big on another starting pitcher.

The offseason shopping list remains unchanged for the Yankees. With the rotation settled, their largest remaining needs are bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. Manny Machado is expected to pick a team soon, and, if the Yankees manage to land him, a) it would be awesome, and b) I have to think it would affect their bullpen decisions to some degree.