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River Ave. Blues » 2012 ALDS » Page 6

ALDS Pitching Preview: Wei-Yin Chen

October 8, 2012 by Mike 48 Comments

The Yankees took Game One from the Orioles last night, and in Game Two tonight they’ll give the ball to the playoff-tested Andy Pettitte. The Orioles are starting a left-hander of their own, but not a veteran like Pettitte. Rookie Wei-Yin Chen will be on the bump for Baltimore, the first playoff start of his MLB career.

Chen, 27, was born in Taiwan but spent the 2005-2011 seasons pitching for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan, where in 2009 he posted the league’s lowest ERA (1.54) in more than 50 years. He was not only the sole Orioles’ pitcher to remain in the rotation from Opening Day through the end of the season, he was also the only pitcher to make more than 20 starts for the team. His 32 starts and 192.2 innings are both career highs (including his time in Japan, obviously), and Chen appeared to hit a bit of a wall in September. It’s not just the raw starts and innings totals, it’s also going from a once-a-week schedule to a once every five days schedule.

2012 Performance vs. Yankees

Date Tm Opp Rslt Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str
Apr 10 BAL NYY L,4-5 5.2 7 4 2 1 6 1 1 3.18 27 101 59
May 15 BAL NYY W,5-2 W(4-0) 7.0 4 2 2 2 4 1 0 2.45 26 105 65
Sep 1 BAL @ NYY L,3-4 L(12-8) 6.2 4 4 3 2 4 1 0 3.79 26 101 67
Sep 7 BAL NYY L,5-8 L(12-9) 4.2 6 7 7 1 4 3 1 4.06 22 68 43
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/7/2012.

Chen’s first ever start in the big leagues came against the Yankees, who have handled him well three of the four times they’ve faced him. For whatever reason, the left-hander always seems to keep them off balance the first time through the order before the Yankees get to him the second and third times through. Maybe I’m wrong, but it just feels like that’s the case. The two underwhelming September starts fit the whole “hitting a wall” narrative.

Pitch Selection (via Brooks Baseball)

Chen may throw five different pitches, but his sinker and curveball are rarely used fourth and fifth offerings. He’s primarily a fastball/slider guy against lefties while going fastball/changeup against righties, which is not uncommon at all. The four-seamer resides in the 90-91 mph range and the velocity held constant throughout the year, which doesn’t fit the whole “hitting a wall” narrative. Chen’s slider sits right around 80 while his changeup is more or less in the mid-80s. The sinker is at the same velocity as the four-seamer while the curve is a slow bender in the low-70s. Yes, the low-70s. As the data in the table shows, Chen likes to pitch backwards a bit, especially against lefties. He’ll start them out with a breaking ball four out of ten times.

Performance & Results

TBF wOBA FIP K% BB% GB% FB% LD% HR/FB%
vs. RHB 598 0.323 4.37 17.1% 7.0% 36.1% 42.0% 21.8% 11.9%
vs. LHB 220 0.298 3.76 23.6% 6.8% 40.1% 42.2% 17.7% 11.3%

The story of the Orioles’ rotation is “small sample size,” as their starters in each of the first three games of the series only have one year of data to look at. Game One starter Jason Hammel completely changed his pitching style this season, and both Chen and Miguel Gonzalez (the Game Three starter) are first-year big leaguers. It sucks, but it is what it is. Anyway, opponents made sure to platoon their lineup against Chen and for good reason — he strikes righties out at a lesser rate than lefties while also generating fewer ground balls.

After carrying a 3.46 ERA (4.01 FIP) through his first 22 starts, Chen pitched to a 5.34 ERA (5.17 FIP) in his final ten starts of the season. That’s where the whole “hitting a wall” thing is coming from. He allowed at least five runs four times in those ten starts, and completed six full innings of work only five times. Right-handed batters tagged him for a .316/.356/.580 batting line with eleven homers in 192 plate appearances during that time, though the southpaw did hold fellow lefties in check (.220/.246/.356 in just 62 plate appearances). I assume Eduardo Nunez will get the start at DH over Raul Ibanez, and it goes without saying that the righties will have to carry the torch offensively against the Baltimore starter.

Filed Under: Pitching, Playoffs Tagged With: 2012 ALDS, Wei-Yin Chen

Big inning, Sabathia carry Yankees to Game One win over Orioles

October 8, 2012 by Mike 153 Comments

Mother Nature tried, but not even a two-hour and 26-minute rain delay could stop the Yankees and CC Sabathia. The ace wouldn’t allow his team to lose no matter how many run-scoring opportunities they blew early in the game, carrying the club until they mounted a five-run rally in the ninth. The Yankees took Game One of the ALDS by the score of 7-2.

(Rob Carr/Getty)

Ichiro Good … And Bad

There was nothing I wanted more coming into the game/series than a first inning run(s). Scoring in the first inning while on the road, especially in the playoffs, is a good way to calm the nerves a bit. The Yankees struck for a run just two batters into the game, as Ichiro Suzuki followed Derek Jeter’s leadoff single with a double into the left-center field gap. Jason Hammel left the full count fastball right out over the plate and Jeter was running on the pitch, so he made it all the way home without a throw. The ball rolled all the way to the wall. Nine pitches into the game, the Yankees had a lead.

Unfortunately Ichiro giveth and Ichiro taketh away. He tried to steal third on the first pitch of Alex Rodriguez’s at-bat following the double, but got gunned down at third by Matt Wieters. I told you the Orioles are good at preventing the opposition from taking the extra base. Ichiro got a good jump and there was a right-handed hitter at the plate, but Wieters is just that damn good. Making the first out of the inning/series at third base like that was a big mistake by the veteran speedster, who was playing in his first playoff game since his rookie season.

(Rob Carr/Getty)

Tex Good … And Bad

Because one base-running mistake wasn’t enough, the Yankees tacked on a second in the fourth inning for good measure. The Orioles took a 2-1 lead on a two-run Nate McLouth single in the bottom of the third (more on that in a bit), but they responded right away with the tying run in the top of the fourth. A-Rod got it all started with a leadoff walk, falling behind in the count 1-2 before taking some breaking balls off the plate for the free pass.

Now, for the life of me, I have no idea why Alex took off for second when Hammel had Cano in an 0-2 count one batter later. Robbie had fouled off two straight 0-2 pitches and A-Rod broke for second on the fifth pitch of the at-bat for no apparent reason. Maybe he was able to sneak a peek at the sign and knew a breaking ball was coming? Either way, it worked. Cano grounded out sharply to first, but Alex made it to second and was able to avoid the double play (but not without a funny slide). Nick Swisher followed with a six-pitch walk to put men on first and second with one out.

Mark Teixeira has really been struggling since coming back from his calf injury last week, and he popped up a total hanger in his first at-bat of the game. He should have destroyed the pitch. Hammel hung another breaking ball in Teixeira’s second at-bat, but the first baseman didn’t miss that one. The pitch was clobbered off the top of the scoreboard in right, scoring A-Rod easily. Unfortunately Tex got a little greedy and tried to stretch the hit into a double, only to be thrown out at second by Chris Davis. Hmmm, if only someone had warned the Yankees about his arm. Oh wait. Tying the score is great, but two outs on the bases in the first four innings of the series is two too many.

Oh yes. (Rob Carr/Getty)

Homer, Hits, A Lead

Jim Johnson is, without question, one of the very best relievers in baseball. He uses a bowling ball mid-90s sinker to generate insane ground ball rates (like, 60%+), so naturally he rarely gives up homers, especially to right-handed batters. In fact, only two righties had taken him deep from May 2010 through September 2011, and one of them was Jesus Montero (twice) last September during his cup of coffee. Ryan Zimmerman was the other. Three pitches into his outing on Sunday, Russell Martin made it three right-handers to take him deep in the last 17 months. He sent a 2-0 sinker over the right field wall for a leadoff homer to break the two-all tie in the ninth.

Martin has provided a number of big hits down the stretch and this was certainly the biggest, but the Yankees weren’t content with a one-run lead. Five of the six batters Johnson faced reached base, including three consecutive singles by Raul Ibanez, Jeter, and Ichiro following Martin’s dinger. Ichiro’s was an infield single, a trickler up the first base line that scored pinch-runner Eduardo Nunez. Cano doubled into the left field corner to plate two more runs, then moved up to third on the throw home. Swisher rewarded Robbie’s heady base-running with a sacrifice fly to deep center to complete the rally. All five runs were charged to Johnson, who allowed exactly one run in the final 62 games of the Orioles season.

The Ace We Need, Not The Ace We Deserve

Don’t ever change, CC. (Getty)

You can’t say enough about how just insanely awesome Sabathia was in Game One. He finished the regular season with three straight dominant outings and carried that right over in the ALDS, manhandling the Orioles for 8.2 innings and 120 pitches (80 strikes). Twenty-four of his 26 outs were recorded on the infield (13 grounders, seven strikeouts, four pop-ups), and the top six hitters of Baltimore’s order were a combined 3-for-23 with five strikeouts. He also broke no fewer than five bats by my unofficial count.

The Orioles did score a pair of runs in the third inning, which was mostly annoying because two left-handed hitters — Chris Davis (leadoff single) and McLouth (two-run single) — did almost all the damage. A Lew Ford ground ball single and a Robert Andino sac bunt were mixed in there as well. The pitch McLouth hit was a total hanger, a cement-mixer slider that spun out over the plate and didn’t break. Sabathia pitched out of a first and third with one out jam in the fifth (struck out McLouth, J.J. Hardy ground out) and more impressively pitched around a Hardy leadoff double in the eighth. Adam Jones struck out, Wieters popped up in foul territory, and Mark Reynolds grounded out to short. You really have to hand it to the guy, he really bore down and got the big outs when he needed too outside of that third inning.

Sabathia was able to pitch into the ninth because his pitch count was extremely manageable early on, as in seven pitches after one inning, 21 pitches after two, 30 pitches after three, 43 pitches after four, and 61 pitches after five. It’s one thing to be effective, it’s another to be both effective and efficient, which CC certainly was on Sunday. He crushed the birds with his offspeed stuff, throwing 21 of 31 changeups and 17 of 22 sliders (!) for strikes. They weren’t burying the slider in the dirt, Sabathia was spotting it at the knees and on the other half for called strikes and when he does that, he’s basically unhittable. He was out of this world good, just brilliant. Utterly dominant. Hard to believe Sabathia’s ace-dom was questioned earlier this summer.

(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Leftovers

The Yankees did blow two prime run-scoring chances in the middle innings, leaving men on first and second in the sixth and having a runner thrown out at home in the seventh. Curtis Granderson hit a long fly ball with two outs in the sixth, a ball that Davis was able to catch in that little cutout in the right field corner. Just unfortunate, that ball would have been several rows foul in most other parks. Martin was thrown out at the plate on the contact play when Ichiro grounded to second with the infield in in the seventh, making it three outs on the bases in the game. A full inning thrown away on the bases. At least they can look back and laugh at it, I guess.

Every starter reached base at least once, but most guys were on-base multiple times. Jeter (two singles, sac bunt), Ichiro (infield single, double), and Teixeira (double, single) all had two hits while Swisher singled and drew two walks. He and Teixeira reached base three times apiece. A-Rod drew the walk that led to the tying run in the fourth but otherwise struck out three times, twice in big situations. The Yankees had ten hits (seven singles, two doubles, one homer) and seven walks overall, going 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Most of that came in the ninth, but it all counts the same.

In addition to the huge homer, Martin had a great fifth inning behind the plate that didn’t go unnoticed. He made a nice pounce from behind the plate to grab Ford’s little grounder, then threw to first for the out while falling down. Teixeira gets an assist for a great scoop on the basee. Martin also blocked two pitches in the dirt that would have allowed the runner at third to score easily had they gotten away. Props for the strong inning.

David Robertson will be just a footnote in this game, but he came in to record the 27th out after Ford ended Sabathia’s night with a two-out double in the ninth. Robertson struck out pinch-hitter Ryan Flaherty on four pitches to end the game, nice and stress-free. The bullpen will be nice and fresh behind Andy Pettitte in Game Two on Monday leading up to Tuesday’s off-day. The Orioles, meanwhile, used pretty much all of their core relievers.

This was Sabathia’s ninth career start in Game One of a postseason series, the second most all-time behind Greg Maddux. Mad Dog did it eleven times. I sure hope Sabathia ties the record this year. CC’s five career Game One wins are tied with John Smoltz and Red Ruffing for the most in history. He was one out away from the first complete game by a Yankee in the postseason since Roger Clemens struck out 15 Mariners back in 2000. Remember that? Maybe the best pitched postseason game I’ve ever seen.

Box Score & WPA Graph

MLB.com has the box score and video highlights. If you’re a glutton for punishment and want some bad news, the Yankees are just 4-6 in ALDS series when they win the first game. They’re actually 6-1 when they drop Game One. Screw that though, gimme that 1-0 lead in the series eight days a week and twice on Sundays.


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next

Nothing fancy here, it’s Game Two of the ALDS on Monday night (8:07pm ET on TBS). The Yankees will send Pettitte to the mound against fellow left-hander Wei-Yin Chen. Going home to the Bronx up 2-0 in the best-of-five series sure would be swell, don’t you think?

Filed Under: Game Stories, Playoffs Tagged With: 2012 ALDS

ALDS Game One Spillover Thread II

October 7, 2012 by Mike 378 Comments

Another one to keep things moving along smoothly. CC Sabathia is a boss.

Filed Under: Game Threads, Playoffs Tagged With: 2012 ALDS

ALDS Game One Spillover Thread

October 7, 2012 by Mike

New thread just to keep the site moving smoothly. Go Yankees.

Filed Under: Game Threads, Playoffs Tagged With: 2012 ALDS

ALDS Game One Thread: Yankees @ Orioles

October 7, 2012 by Mike

There are a lot of parallels between this year and 1996, isn’t there? The Yankees and Orioles finished one-two in the division that year, but the Bombers had a double-digit lead at midseason and nearly blew it in September, just like this season. The two clubs met in the ALCS that year, but the new rules allow them to meet in the ALDS this season even though they own the two best records in the circuit. That’s the reward for finishing the best record in the AL I guess, opening the series on the road against the second best team in the league.

Anyway, the weather in Baltimore is not great. It’s been raining on-and-off all day, but there appears to be enough of a window to get the game in tonight. After the suspended game nonsense last year, I really hope they’re 100% certain they’ll get the entire game in tonight before having the pitchers warm up and everything. I’d rather not see the Yankees and CC Sabathia go through that again. Here are the starting lineups…

New York Yankees
SS Derek Jeter
LF Ichiro Suzuki
3B Alex Rodriguez
2B Robinson Cano
RF Nick Swisher
1B Mark Teixeira
CF Curtis Granderson
C  Russell Martin
DH Raul Ibanez

CC Sabathia (15-6, 3.38)

Baltimore Orioles
LF Nate McLouth
SS J.J. Hardy
CF Adam Jones
C  Matt Wieters
1B Mark Reynolds
DH Chris Davis
RF Lew Ford
3B Manny Machado
2B Robert Andino

Jason Hammel (8-6, 3.43)

Tonight’s game is scheduled to start at 6:07pm ET and can be seen on TBS. If the Nationals and Cardinals are still playing, the start of this game will air on TNT instead. No word on whether there will be any kind of delay just yet. Enjoy the game.

Update (5:53pm ET): The game is officially in a rain delay and no start time has been announced. Stay tuned for updates.

Update (7:30pm ET): Just so you don’t think I’ve been ignoring things, a start time still has not been announced. Better get settled in, it might be a long night.

Update (8:02pm ET): The game is scheduled to start at approximately 8:40pm ET. Better late than never, I suppose.

Filed Under: Game Threads, Playoffs Tagged With: 2012 ALDS

Orioles’ Strength: Protecting the Extra Base

October 7, 2012 by Mike 5 Comments

(Rob Carr/Getty)

The Yankees are a few hours away from opening their best-of-five ALDS matchup against the Orioles, a team they know pretty well since they reside in the same division. The pitchers should be familiar, the hitters should be familiar, and everyone’s defensive abilities should be familiar.

The Orioles were rated as a below-average defensive team overall by the various advanced metrics this year, but they are strong up the middle with Matt Wieters behind the plate, J.J. Hardy at short, and Adam Jones in center. One thing Baltimore’s defenders do very well is stop the other team’s running game, which means the Yankees won’t be able to create much havoc on the bases these next few days.

No Stolen Bases For You

Thanks to the cannon arm of Wieters, the Orioles led the AL in throwing out attempted base-stealers and not by a small margin. Overall, they threw out 36 of 99 base-stealers (36.4%), far better than the second place Blue Jays (33.1%). Wieters threw out nearly 40% (38.6% to be exact) of the runners who tried to steal again him, which is well above the ~25% league average. Only Ryan Hanigan (48.5%), Yadier Molina (47.9%), and Miguel Montero (42.1%) were better among regular catchers, and in case you haven’t noticed, all of those guys play in the NL. Over the last two years, it’s a 37.7% throw-out rate for Wieters. The guy just shuts the running game down.

Perhaps the best way to look at this is just in terms of number of attempts. Opponents attempted a stolen base just 99 times against the Orioles this season, tied with the Cardinals for the second fewest in baseball. Only the Diamondbacks (85) had fewer steals attempted against them. The Yankees, for what it’s worth, had the fifth fewest stolen bases attempted against them this year (118). Anyway, the Bombers are called the Bombers for a reason, and that’s because they don’t steal all that much. Their 93 team steals (120 attempts) were the eighth fewest in baseball, and only four players had double-digit steals: Ichiro Suzuki (14), Alex Rodriguez (13), Eduardo Nunez (11), and Curtis Granderson (10). The stolen base isn’t a huge part of the Yankees’ offense, but it’ll likely be a non-factor in the ALDS thanks to Wieters.

Outfield Arms

The Yankees catch a little bit of a break because Nick Markakis, one of Baltimore’s all-around best players, is still sidelined with a broken thumb that will keep him on the shelf through the ALDS. He actually originally suffered the injury against the Yankees, when CC Sabathia hit him with a pitch. With Markakis out and Jim Thome healthy, the Orioles have been playing Chris Davis in right field, his worst position. He’s not especially quick or the smoothest of route takers, but the one thing he has going for him defensively is his arm, which is a rocket. Here, look…

It’s unfortunate that TBS cut to Nelson Cruz running like that, but you can still see how strong that throw was. Davis got it to third on the fly, and you probably won’t be surprised to learn that he used to pitch — “Davis also has touched 93 mph off the mound,” wrote Baseball America in their draft write-up back in 2004, the year the Yankees selected him in the 50th round but did not sign him. Anyway, enough with the nostalgia.

With Davis and Adam Jones, another former amateur pitcher who has long owned one of the strongest arms in baseball, patrolling the outfield, the Orioles are not a team that allows runners to take the extra-base very often. In situations where a runner could have gone first-to-third on a single hit to Jones, the runner held at second 69.2% of the time. The league average for center fielders is 43.8%. They don’t even run on his arm anymore. Davis only played 230 innings in right this year (and in his career), so we don’t have reliable data for him. Still though, look at that .gif. Runners beware.

* * *

The Yankees were a very station-to-station team this year, due in large part to Brett Gardner’s injury and Nunez’s demotion to the minors. They did, however, steal 27 bases (in 33 attempts) in the final 29 games of the season thanks to Ichiro’s scorching hit finish, A-Rod’s return to the lineup, and Nunez’s return to the majors. In terms of taking the extra-base on first-to-thirds, etc., the Yankees attempted it only 37.3% of the time compared to the 40% league average. With Wieters behind the plate and the duo of Jones and Davis in the outfield, New York is going to have to be very judicious about trying to create offense with their legs in the ALDS.

Filed Under: Defense, Playoffs Tagged With: 2012 ALDS, Baltimore Orioles

Update: Gardner NOT starting over Ichiro tonight

October 7, 2012 by Mike 15 Comments

2:26pm: Nevermind, apparently there was just a typo on the board in the press box. Ichiro is starting and batting second tonight.

2:20pm: Here’s a shocker: Brett Gardner is starting in left field over Ichiro Suzuki tonight. Ichiro is 7-for-12 lifetime against Orioles starter Jason Hammel, which leads me to believe he’s banged up. Curtis Granderson has moved up to second in the lineup while Gardner will hit ninth.

Filed Under: Asides, Offense Tagged With: 2012 ALDS, Brett Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki

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