2018 Season Review Archives - Page 2 of 6

The Trade Deadline Bullpen Pickup [2018 Season Review]

November 28, 2018 by Mike

In a weird way, the Yankees trading for a big name reliever at the deadline was both surprising and not surprising. It was surprising because the bullpen was a strength pretty much all season, even with some hiccups along the way. It was not surprising because the Yankees clearly value a deep bullpen, and adding to a strength is never a bad thing. Another reliever just didn’t seem to be a priority.

There was more to the Zach Britton trade that what met the eye, however. The bullpen was on shaky ground despite its overall effectiveness. Aroldis Chapman had pitched through a knee injury all season. Chad Green was not quite as dominant this year as last year, and he had some notable meltdowns at midseason. Dellin Betances has a history of losing effectiveness late in the season.

The Yankees wanted some bullpen protection in case things went south — Chapman’s knee eventually sidelined him for a month in late August and early September — so, on July 25th, the Yanks sent three pitching prospects (Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers, Cody Carroll) to the Orioles for Britton. It was the first player-for-player Yankees-Orioles trade since the Jaret Wright-Chris Britton trade in November 2006.

Britton’s (Zach, not Chris) time with the Yankees started slowly but he eventually settled in and became a key late-inning reliever who took a turn at closing while Chapman was sidelined. In 25 innings in pinstripes Britton had a 2.88 ERA (4.08 FIP) with less than stellar strikeout (19.8%) and walk (10.4%) rates, but a dominant ground ball rate (77.8%). Grounders are Britton’s thing. Time to review his partial season as a Yankee.

Before The Trade

Britton did not take the mound in an official game until May 30th this season. That was a High-A rehab game. Britton blew out his Achilles during an offseason workout last December and needed surgery. That delayed the start of his season and also left him looking a little rusty once he did return. He made five minor league rehab appearances before rejoining the Orioles in mid June.

On June 12th, Britton made his MLB season debut in the seventh inning of a game the Orioles trailed by four. Hardly the glamour of a ninth inning save opportunity. He walked three of the five batters he faced but managed to throw a scoreless inning. It wasn’t until his sixth appearance that Britton saw a save chance — you can at least partly blame that on the O’s being so terrible and having so few save opportunities — and it wasn’t until July 9th and 10th, nearly a full month after he returned, that he pitched on back-to-back days.

Prior to the trade Britton looked quite rusty, throwing 15.2 innings with a 3.45 ERA (4.44 FIP) and nearly as many walks (ten) as strikeouts (13) with the O’s. His 64.1% ground ball rate was a) very good compared to the league average, b) low for Britton, and c) accumulated in a very small sample. Britton didn’t look much like the guy who had a 0.54 ERA (1.94 FIP) in 2016. But the Yankees believed in his track record and saw enough to swing the trade.

A Rough Start, A Strong Finish

The first eight appearances of Britton’s 25-appearance stint as a Yankee (29 appearances when you include the postseason) did not go particularly well. He allowed six runs in 7.1 innings with walk trouble (six in those 7.1 innings) mostly to blame. Opponents hit .300/.447/.433 against him and that was all it took for the “terrible trade!” and “he can’t handle New York!” crowd to come out of the woodwork.

Britton quickly settled down after that though. Following those first eight outings, Britton allowed just four runs (two earned) in his final 17 appearances and 17.2 innings of the regular season. Opponents hit a .145/.206/.194 against him and Britton walked only five batters in those 17.2 innings. He spend some time closing games while Chapman was out. This September 18th save chance against the Red Sox stands out for its sheer absurdity:

Britton got three double play ground balls in that ninth inning and only one, the last one, was turned into outs. I know I wasn’t the only one expecting Britton to throw that final double play ball into center field given how the inning was going and the general shakiness of pitchers throwing the ball to second.

Anyway, Britton allowed three hits in 9.2 innings in September — that worked out to a .088/.184/.088 opponent’s batting line — and the Yankees had used him in a variety of roles. He set up, he closed, and he entered games as early as the seventh inning. Britton said he was open to pitching in any role — “I spoke with Aaron (Boone) and I told him I’m ready for whatever situation he wants to use me in,” he said during his introductory press conference — and the Yankees did indeed take advantage of that willingness to pitch whenever.

Britton saw a lot of action in the postseason — he appeared in four of the Yankees’ five postseason games (no other reliever pitched in more than three) — and he allowed three runs in five innings. Two of those three runs came on Khris Davis’ short porch two-run homer in the AL Wild Card Game, which merely turned a six-run lead into a four-run lead. If you’re going to give up a two-run homer in the postseason, that’s not the worst time to do it.

Understandably, it took Britton some time to get back up to speed following the Achilles injury and the long layoff. He didn’t have a proper Spring Training and the Orioles had him back in the big leagues after a few bullpen sessions and five rehab innings because they wanted to showcase him before the trade deadline. As Britton got further away from the injury and into what could be considered midseason form, the velocity on his trademark sinker returned and so did the ground balls:

“Arm-wise, I can’t tell you how great my arm feels compared to any other year since I’ve been in the majors,” said Britton the day before the AL Wild Card Game, referring to how the Achilles injury gave him time to rest his arm. The Yankees were banking on Britton getting back to his 2014-17 form as he got further way from the injury and that is pretty much exactly what happened. I mean, he wasn’t that good, but he was really good by the end of the season, after getting some innings under his belt.

About The Prospects

The trade accomplished two things. One, it gave the Yankees another high-end reliever. Hooray for that. And two, it helped clear up the 40-man roster situation. All three pitchers the Yankees sent the Orioles are Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason and had to be added to the 40-man roster. In fact, a month before the trade I mentioned Tate and Rogers as potential candidates to be traded rather than be added to the 40-man. See? Sometimes I’m right.

Anyway, the O’s called Carroll up soon after the trade and he allowed 17 runs in 17 innings in his MLB debut. He struck out 16 and walked 13. The Yankees faced him five times — Carroll faced no other team more than twice this year and you just know Buck Showalter was hoping he’d shove against the Yankees — and scored six runs in five innings. That includes three runs in the tenth inning of this game:

Rogers made five Triple-A starts after the trade before being summoned to Baltimore. He made three starts with the Orioles and allowed eleven runs in 11.2 innings. The O’s shut him down for workload reasons in mid September and, weirdly, they sent him home rather than let him travel with the team and soak in the big league experience the rest of the season. Huh. Usually teams want guys sitting in on meetings and whatnot. Whatever.

As for Tate, the Orioles sent him to Double-A after the trade and he threw 40.2 innings with a 5.75 ERA (4.14 FIP). His strikeout rate went from 21.9% with the Yankees to 12.0% with the Orioles, and that’s at the same level and even in the same league. Tate still has development ahead of him and O’s might be the worst pitcher development organization in baseball. Poor kid. Baltimore did add him to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft protection deadline last week though. I imagine Tate’s going to Triple-A next year. Carroll and Rogers will probably get a chance to compete for big league jobs in camp.

What’s Next?

Back to Britton. He is a free agent this offseason — the Yankees could not make him the qualifying offer because he had been traded at midseason, though I reckon they would’ve made the offer if the rules allowed — and Britton said he would “love to be back” with the Yankees before the season even ended. Players come to the Yankees and they don’t want to leave. It has been a recurring theme the last few years.

“It’s kind of been everything I would have hoped it would have been,” said Britton. “… I’m sure we’ll kind of see where they are and where we are, but I would definitely love to be back. I don’t know where they are in terms of arbitration raises and all that, but this would definitely be one of my top choices.”

Britton turns 31 next month and he’s had some injury problems the last few years, so this might be his only chance to cash in big as a free agent. He banked over $33M in his four years of arbitration as a Super Two closer, so he’s not hurting for cash, but this is probably it. His best chance for a large contract. I don’t see him taking a one-year pillow contract to prove to teams he can still be effective across a full season, then testing free agency against next year a la Josh Donaldson.

The Yankees are reportedly looking to add two relievers this winter and that makes sense given Britton’s and David Robertson’s free agencies. Britton is open to coming back and that’s cool. Bottom line, it’s going to come down to his asking price. If the money makes sense for both sides, a deal will get done. We’ll see. Britton did overall fine work in his short time as a Yankee this past season. If the relationship continues, great. If not, well, baseball goes on.

The Constant of the Rotation [2018 Season Review]

November 27, 2018 by Sung-Min Kim

The Yankees have had a decent amount of rotation changes from 2014 and on. One of the few constants, however, has been the presence of Masahiro Tanaka. Since signing with the Yankees in January 2014, you could count on Tanaka being in the rotation and turning in a solid season. In five seasons as a Yankee, Tanaka has compiled a 15.5 fWAR in 132 games started, which averages out to roughly ~3.1 fWAR season in 27 starts. He’s a type of pitcher that any team would want in their rotation.

2018 was no different. In 27 starts, Tanaka had a 12-6 record with a 3.75 ERA/4.01 FIP and a 2.7 fWAR. Looking at his numbers closer, he’s shown that he pretty much performed true to his style – high strikeouts (9.17 K/9), low walks (2.02 BB/9) and giving up home runs more than once in a start or so (1.44 HR/9). It’s perfectly fine for a No. 2-to-mid-rotation starter.

First Half

For the first 12 starts of the season, Tanaka was 7-2. That’s a pretty good win-loss record for that many appearances, right? The numbers beneath that surface wasn’t as good. In those 67.2 IP, Tanaka had a 4.79 ERA. While he struck out a good amount (65) and limited walks (18), the amount of home runs allowed (15) was the thorn in his side. He was allowing a dinger about every three innings. Basically, he was doing everything pretty well besides gopher balls, and that’s a biggie.

There is no way to sugar coat this: Tanaka was throwing pitches that were too hittable. One of the causes may be that the hitters weren’t chasing his offspeed pitches as much. In 2017, Tanaka was literally the best at it – hitters chases his pitches out of the zone 42.1% of the time. That is ahead of guys like Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, etc. This may have been the result of the Yankees’ anti-fastball philosophy. Tanaka doesn’t have a great fastball to begin with, so not only did he rely on his better pitches, but also he eliminated one of his weaknesses out of the equation.

Unfortunately, big league hitters are not suckers. The approach may work for awhile, but the teams keep tab on guys like Tanaka. They notice things and start adjusting accordingly. That may have caught up with him in early 2018, as teams just started chasing way less. It’s almost like he needed to change something up to get things going later in the season (this becomes important later).

Injury

After a less-than-ideal first half, Tanaka needed to turn his season around a bit. Against the Mets on June 8, Tanaka threw 5 brilliant innings, striking out 8, allowing only one hit (a home run) and a walk. There was a major problem though: Tanaka exited the game after the top of the sixth. Because it was a Mets home game, the Yankees had to abide by the NL rules and Tanaka had to hit for himself. It seemed like, right away, that Tanaka hurt his lower body tagging up from the third base on a sac fly. As soon as Tanaka did not return to the mound, Yankee fans’ mind flashed back to Chien-Ming Wang in 2008. Take a look.

Well, the good news was that Tanaka’s injury was not as bad as what Wang suffered. The bad news is that it was an injury – to both of his hamstrings. It’s a very Mets injury and of course, it happened in the Citi Field.

“I don’t think it’s anything special,” Tanaka said after the game. “I’ve been doing this since I was a little kid. It’s on me that I got hurt.”

Tanaka indeed was a position player (a catcher at one point, actually) and pitcher growing up, all the way through high school. But since being drafted into NPB, he’s not really had to do much hitting. From 2007 to 2018, he’s compiled only 70 plate appearances. I doubt he’s had to do baserunning training/drills as position players would. It sucks that he was thrown into a situation where he had to run more than what he’s usually asked to and got hurt. I’m not going to go full-force on “ban the DH” sentiment here since vast majority of AL pitchers who end up baserunning in NL field come out unscathed. It feels more like a thing that happened in unfortunate series.

Second Half Brilliance

A month after he was shelved, Tanaka returned to action on July 10 vs. the Orioles. While his first outing back was a dud (4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER), the rest of the season wasn’t. In the 14 starts after coming off the DL, Tanaka went 5-4 with a 3.02 ERA in 83.1 IP. Not only he kept striking out hitters (86) and limiting walks (16), he kept the ball in the yard (9 homers). There was a streak of four starts from August 27 to September 14 in which he did not allow a home run at all (with three of them at the Yankee Stadium for what it’s worth). So what changed?

Here is one noticeable thing: he threw more fastballs towards the end of the year. Here is his monthly fastball usage log from Brooks Baseball:

March: 16.9%
April: 21.9%
May: 20.3%
June: 16.9%
July 16.9%
August: 19.4%
September: 29.7%

The rate in September is almost as twice as much as that of March/June/July. September also happened to be the month where he marked a 2.79 ERA with only 2 home runs allowed in 29.0 IP. He threw less cutters, curveballs and sinkers, kept up with slider and splitter usage and bumped up the fastball frequency.

My theory? Maybe he was going against what the book had on him. I’m sure Tanaka was aware that opponents knew he had offered a steady diet of breaking stuff. At some point, that can become predictable, getting opposing batters to sit on non-straight pitches. However, he chose to keep up with slider and splitter because, frankly, those are two that he just can’t do without. They also happen to be the only two pitches that’s rated positively on FanGraphs pitch values.

So while he continued using his best pitches, Tanaka decided to turn heads by attacking hitters with fastball. His fastball isn’t really anything to write home about so I’m guessing the league could catch up to up, in which case he can tweak his approach again. It may not be an ideal outcome, but all big league pitchers go through it.

Postseason

Tanaka had such a strong postseason last year that he became a realistic candidate for a one-game AL Wild Card Game vs. Oakland. He and J.A. Happ were the two sturdiest starting pitchers going into the postseason, so most guessed that it would be one of those two (spoiler: it wasn’t). If one would weigh a pitcher’s postseason/big game history, Tanaka would be an easy choice. The man’s pitched big games all his life. In 2006, before getting drafted by the Rakuten Golden Eagles, Tanaka led his high school team to the Koshien Finals with his bat and arm. He won the 2009 World Baseball Classic gold medal with Team Japan. He had that legendary 2013 Japan Series where he closed out the title game with a save one day after throwing a 160-pitch complete game. With the Yankees, he had thrown 25 innings in the postseason with only 4 runs allowed. I’m not a huge “postseason genes” guy, but if I were, Tanaka would be someone I’d definitely give the tag.

That being said, the Yankees went with their best starting pitcher in the past two seasons for the AL Wild Card game (it’s Luis Severino, btw). Because they won that and made it to the ALDS, Tanaka was slated to make at least one start in the postseason. He got the call to pitch against the Red Sox in the Game 2 of the ALDS.

Against the eventual World Champions, Tanaka held on his own. He pitched five innings, allowed only a run and struck out four. He earned the win and that would be the only win the Yankees would earn in that series. That was the last outing for Tanaka in 2018. Let’s hope he gets more postseason starts in 2019.

What’s Next?

It is a very sure thing: Tanaka will be a Yankee for at least two more years. In the winter of 2017-18, Tanaka chose to stay in New York by exercising a three-year, $67 million option. This was an ultimate win-win move. The Yankees retained a reliable starter for three more years, and Tanaka got to escape what it turned out to be a hellish offseason for free agents. I’m not sure if he would have suffered the same fate as that of Alex Cobb or Yu Darvish, but making ends meet very early in the winter turned out to be a good decision.

The First Base Godsend [2018 Season Review]

November 26, 2018 by Mike

First base has been a glaring weakness for the Yankees over the last three seasons. Mark Teixeira had his last great season in 2015 — he hit .255/.357/.548 (143 wRC+) with 31 homers in 111 games that year — and Greg Bird helped picked up the slack after Teixeira went down with his shin injury that August. That was the last great year at first base in the Bronx.

From 2016-18, the Yankees had 20 (!) different players play at least one game at first base, two more than any other team. Among those 20 first basemen are Dustin Ackley, Billy Butler, Chris Parmelee, and pitcher Bryan Mitchell. The Yankees really scraped the bottom of the barrel, eh? Here are New York’s first base ranks the last three years:

AVG: .230 (28th in MLB)
OBP: .306 (26th)
SLG: .426 (25th)
wRC+: 95 (26th)
WAR: +1.9 (27th)

That is turrible. The league average first baseman hit .259/.339/.459 (112 wRC+) the last three years. Yankees’ first basemen hit like 2018 Ian Desmond (.236/.307/.422) in almost 2,000 plate appearances during that time. This season their first basemen hit .234/.309/.453 (104 wRC+), which is only slightly better than their aggregate 2016-18 output. First base has been a black hole since Teixeira.

Bird was expected to man first base this past season but that didn’t work out. He got hurt and didn’t hit when healthy. Backup plan Neil Walker didn’t fare well in part-time duty. Tyler Austin had his moments early in the season, for sure, but his production slipped in May and he was traded in July. The Yankees even had Brandon Drury start two games at first base as they looked for a solution.

Enter Luke Voit. Voit effectively replaced Austin as the depth right-handed hitting first baseman — Voit has minor league options remaining beyond 2018 whereas Austin did not, which was a factor in the swap — and he became much more than a depth pickup. Voit took over as the everyday first baseman in late August and hit .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) with 14 homers in 148 plate appearances in pinstripes. What a shot in the arm. Let’s review Voit’s season.

Finding Voit

“He was somebody that was on our radar. Our analytics crew had noticed him early on, and so in a lot of our meetings last year he was someone that we coveted from St. Louis,” said Brian Cashman last month. “We finally matched up (at the deadline), but we had a lot of guys in the office … those guys were all pushing his name hard and brought it to me.”

The key words there: “last year.” The Yankees had Voit on their radar for some time. Cashman added the team’s analytics department zeroed in on Voit because he hit the ball really freaking hard. In 124 plate appearances with the Cardinals last year, Voit posted a 41.0% hard contact rate and a 7.2% soft contact rate, numbers that are Aaron Judge-ian. His exit velocity (91.3 mph) was quite strong as well.

Minor league Trackman data (i.e. Statcast) exists but it is not publicly available. MLB and the 30 teams keep it all in-house, which is a bummer, but I get it. Anyway, that information also contributed to the Yankees pursuing Voit. The Yankees saw that he was hitting the ball hard, hard enough to overcome his weak defense at the position at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, and the fact he’s on the light side of the platoon. He was worth a shot.

Prior to the trade Voit hit .299/.391/.500 (135 wRC+) with nine homers in 271 plate appearances at Triple-A, and had gone 2-for-11 (.182) with the Cardinals. Matt Carpenter crushed the ball this season and St. Louis didn’t have a need at first base. Carpenter’s excellence and the presence of Jose Martinez made Voit expendable, and the Yankees pounced. On July 28th, the Yankees sent Chasen Shreve and Gio Gallegos to the Cardinals for Voit and international bonus money.

The Wally Pipping of Greg Bird

On one hand, the Yankees stuck with Greg Bird way too long this year. He hit .199/.286/.386 (81 wRC+) in 311 plate appearances. Awful. Just awful. On the other hand, if the Yankees hadn’t stuck with Bird that long, they might not have ended up with Voit, and may’ve been worse off overall because they replaced Bird with someone else at midseason. The Yankees initially stuck with Bird after the Voit trade too. Voit went right to Triple-A after the trade. He then resurfaced for a quick five-game cameo in early August before heading back to Triple-A.

In the first three and a half weeks after the trade, Voit played five games with the Yankees (3-for-16) and nine games with Triple-A Scranton (9-for-29). Aaron Judge (wrist) and Gary Sanchez (groin) were on the disabled list and had been since prior to the trade deadline, and I was Mad Online the Yankees didn’t do more than add Luke Voit.

Inexplicable that Judge and Sanchez were both out and the only bat the Yankees got at the deadline was Luke Voit.

— Mike Axisa (@mikeaxisa) August 6, 2018

Shows what I know. Voit rejoined the Yankees for good in late August, when they went to Miami for a two-game interleague series and wanted an extra bench bat for the National League games. The Legend of Luke Voit began in earnest on August 24th, in the first game of a four-game weekend series in Baltimore. Voit went 3-for-5 with two homers that night. Two days later, he hit another homer. Four days after that, another homer. Two days later Voit started a streak in which he went deep in three consecutive games.

It wasn’t just the homers either. Voit played 16 games from August 24th through September 9th and he went hitless in only four of those games. One of the four was an 0-for-1 pinch-hitting appearance. Another was an 0-for-1 with two walks game. The dingers and the raw production gave Voit the first base job outright in September and he finished the season with a flourish. He went 4-for-4 with two homers against the Red Sox on September 19th. From that day on, he went 18-for-43 (.419) with seven homers in his final eleven games of the regular season.

Voit played with a ton of energy and he was, by no small margin, the most productive hitter traded at the deadline. By the end of the season he was taking regular turns as the No. 3 hitter between Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Voit of course started the AL Wild Card Game and of course had a hand in the win, driving in two insurance runs with a sixth inning triple that damn near left the ballpark.

That was a nine-pitch at-bat against Blake Treinen, who had an absurd season and held right-handed batters to a .123/.206/.166 (.171 wOBA) batting line with a 36.0% strikeout rate. Voit fouled away three two-strike pitches until Treinen make a mistake with the slider, and he punished it. His folk hero status had been cemented. We’ve seen plenty of guys do great things in small samples during the regular season (Shelley Duncan, anyone?). Have a moment like that in October though, and it’s hard for the fans to forget you.

Is This Sustainable?

“This is sustainable. He could be a really good hitter in this league,” said Aaron Boone in September. Cashman gave a more diplomatic “hard to answer on (the) sample size” answer when asked whether Voit is legit. I’ll say this much: I don’t expect Voit to repeat his .333/.405/.689 (194 wRC+) effort going forward. Almost no one does that. Super early 2019 projections have him at .262/.336/.459 (115 wRC+) next year, for what it’s worth.

Voit’s post-trade production was not a fluke. Not a fluke in the sense that he played way over his head. Voit punished the ball with the Yankees and was rewarded appropriately. A total of 336 hitters put at least 50 balls in play after the trade deadline. Voit’s ranks among those 336 hitters:

Exit Velocity: 93.0 mph (sixth highest)
wOBA: .458 (third highest behind Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts)
Expected wOBA: .450 (second highest behind Yelich)

Voit had a 47.3% hard contact rate and a 34.4% ground ball rate with the Yankees. He crushed the ball and he got it airborne. Do that and good things tend to happen, and good things sure happened when Voit was at the plate for the Yankees. His xwOBA, which is based on exit velocity and launch angle and things like that, was right in line with his actual wOBA. Voit was rewarded for the contact he made. He wasn’t living off bloops and grounders with eyes.

Given his statistical track record, Voit’s ability to hit the ball extremely hard is very real. Say what you want about exit velocity — I know I’m tired of hearing about it after every batted ball — but you can’t fake it. You can either hit the ball that hard consistently or you can’t. Voit can. He showed the ability to go the other way — his 20.4% opposite field rate with the Yankees was lower than I would’ve guessed — and work counts. They were professional at-bats, as broadcasters like to say.

There are two things working against Voit going forward. One, he put up the bulk of those numbers in September, and September has a way of playing tricks on you. Call-ups and teams with nothing to play for — there are a lot of teams with nothing to play for late in the season these days — can skew numbers. And two, Voit won’t catch teams by surprise next year. They’re going to make adjustments and he’ll have to adjust back.

In fact, it’s already happening. The Red Sox attacked Voit with high-velocity right-handed fastballs whenever possible in the ALDS, and for good reason. They give him fits. Here are some numbers, with the MLB averages for right-handed hitters vs. right-handed pitchers in parentheses:

	AVG	ISO	xwOBA	Whiffs-per-Swings
Voit vs. all RHB fastballs	.276 (.259)	.483 (.195)	.558 (.348)	32.4% (21.2%)
Voit vs. RHB fastballs <95 mph	.462 (.275)	.846 (.226)	.800 (.373)	16.7% (18.5%)
Voit vs. RHB fastballs =>95 mph	.154 (.236)	.231 (.144)	.377 (.309)	45.5% (24.9%)

Voit’s time with the Yankees was a small sample size to start with. Only 148 plate appearances. Now we’re slicing and dicing it even more, so take this all with a giant grain of salt. Right now, all we know is that in his limited time with the Yankees, Voit hammered right-handed fastballs below 94 mph and struggled to make contact against right-handed fastballs at 95 mph and above. Moreso than the typical righty hitter. Hence the Red Sox pounding him with righty heaters in the ALDS, and his 3-for-13 (.231) showing with zero extra-base hits.

Point is, Voit hits the ball really hard and that is a skill you can not teach. He has it and it drew the Yankees to him. Whether he can remain productive outside the pathological liar that is September and once the league adjusts to him remains to be seen. His performance this past season happened and it helped the Yankees win games. There’s no taking it away. The tools are there for Voit to remain productive going forward. Perhaps not that productive, but productive. Now it’s up to him to do it.

What’s Next?

Both Cashman and Boone stopped short of naming Voit the 2019 starting first baseman during their end-of-season press conferences, which makes sense. No need to declare an uncertain position settled before the offseason. “He certainly came over here and was given that opportunity and took it and kicked the door in. I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels,” Boone said.

At the very least, Voit earned a chance to win a big league job in Spring Training. He’s a late-bloomer — Voit turns 28 in February — and the Yankees owe it to themselves to find out whether Voit can be their late-bloomer. Their Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar. Cruz didn’t get his first opportunity as an everyday big leaguer until his age 28 season. Ditto Aguilar. These defensive challenged right-handed bats can get written off quickly. Every so often they surprise.

There is a lot of offseason left to go and, even though pitching and a Didi Gregorius replacement are the top priorities, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yankees bring in another first baseman. Maybe they’ll go big and trade for Paul Goldschmidt. That’d be cool. Or perhaps they’ll opt for a lower cost pickup to compete with Voit (and Bird?) in Spring Training. Either way, Voit was awesome this year and I expect him to get a chance to prove he can do it against next year.

The Up & Down Depth Arms [2018 Season Review]

November 21, 2018 by Mike

Here’s where the game of baseball is these days: The Yankees used 26 different pitchers this year, the eighth most in franchise history. That is also the fifth fewest pitchers used by any team this season. The Blue Jays led the way with 36 different pitchers in 2018. The Rockies used only 21 different pitchers, the fewest in baseball, if you can believe that. Wild.

Two of those 26 pitchers to wear pinstripes in 2018 were shuttle veteran Luis Cessa and newcomer Jonathan Loaisiga. Both went up-and-down this year — Cessa moreso than Loaisiga — but they held different roles. Cessa was the quintessential spot starter. Call him up, start him, send him down. Loaisiga had a somewhat extended run in the rotation. They finished with similar numbers (5.24 ERA/3.74 FIP vs. 5.11 ERA/3.53 FIP). Let’s review their seasons.

Luis Cessa

Cessa’s third year as an up-and-down depth arm featured eight (!) separate call-ups — four times he was called up to make a spot start or long relief appearance and sent down the next day — and 44.2 innings with a 5.24 ERA (3.74 FIP) spread across five starts and eleven relief appearances. He also missed two months with an oblique injury and threw 26.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA (2.38 FIP) with Triple-A Scranton. Typical Luis Cessa stuff, basically.

The Good: Cessa started the season with two 1-2-3 inning short relief appearances, during which he struck out three of six batters faced. He also strung together back-to-back good starts against the Orioles (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) and Rays (5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K) in July.

Also, Cessa had a nice little run as a multi-inning mop-up guy late in the season. He even recorded his first career save when he threw the final three innings of a blowout win over the O’s on August 25th. From August 25th through September 29th, Cessa made six appearances and threw three innings in five of them, and posted a 3.18 ERA (2.16 FIP) with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. Opponents hit .250/.271/.382 against him. That’ll work.

The Bad: Pretty much everything else. The Red Sox hung five runs on Cessa in 3.2 innings on August 2nd. Next time out the Rays punished him for five runs in 3.1 innings. And, on the final day of the regular season, Cessa allowed four runs in one-third of an inning and left the game with a hip injury after he stumbled covering first base. Fourteen of the 27 runs he allowed this year came in those three games. That’s 52% of his runs in 16% of his innings.

The Future: This past season was Cessa’s final minor league option year, which means he has to pass through waivers to go to Triple-A going forward. This is not a good place to be, out of options and unestablished at the MLB level. I like Cessa more than most and I wish the Yankees would just stick him in short relief. The velocity is good and his slider has a comfortably above-average swing-and-miss rate. Stick him in the bullpen and see what happens when he airs it out for an inning at a time, you know?

Cessa will turn 27 in April and he did keep his 40-man roster spot through yesterday’s Rule 5 Draft protection deadline, but that is hardly a guarantee he will make it through the offseason. The Yankees could cast him aside to clear 40-man space in the coming weeks. For now, Cessa remains in the organization, and since he’s out of options, he’ll get a chance to win the proverbial last guy in the bullpen spot come Spring Training until further notice.

Jonathan Loaisiga

What a rise for Johnny Lasagna. At this time last year he was intriguing lower level arm who’d just returned from Tommy John surgery and had thrown 103.2 innings in his career, only 2.1 of which were above the short season leagues. Loaisiga was mentioned as a sleeper and the Yankees liked him enough to put him on the 40-man roster despite the injuries and inexperience. After four dominant starts with High-A Tampa (1.35 ERA and 1.18 FIP) and six okay starts with Double-A Trenton (4.32 ERA and 3.33 FIP) this year, he was in the big leagues. Crazy.

The Yankees were of course extremely careful with Loaisiga while in the minors. He has a long injury history and hadn’t thrown many innings in his career, so he made almost every minor league start with six days rest this year. Loaisiga was a once a week starter, basically. Also, in his ten minor league starts before being called up, he never threw more than five innings or 89 pitches. The Yankees treated him with kid gloves. That didn’t stop them from calling him up.

“He’s really talented, we think he has a very bright future. His stuff is really good. He’s a guy that pounds the strike zone,” said Aaron Boone. “Just getting to know him a little bit this spring, we don’t think he’ll be overwhelmed pitching here at Yankee Stadium in the big leagues. We feel like his repertoire, his stuff will allow him to have a chance to be successful for us.”

A promising four-start cameo — Loaisiga replaced Masahiro Tanaka in the rotation after Tanaka pulled both hamstrings running the bases — and a pretty crummy September bullpen stint gave Loaisiga a 5.11 ERA (3.53 FIP) with 33 strikeouts and 12 walks in 24.2 big league innings this year. It was a 3.00 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 18 innings as a starter and a 10.80 ERA (5.26 FIP) in 6.2 innings as a reliever.

The Good: In his big league debut Loaisiga struck out six in five scoreless innings against the Rays on June 15th. He looked poised and his fastball topped out at 97.7 mph, which was pleasantly surprising. Loaisiga’s best start was his third start. He tossed five no-hit innings in Philadelphia before giving up a sixth inning leadoff single to Jorge Alfaro. His night ended with that one hit allowed in 5.1 scoreless innings. He struck out eight.

In September, Loaisiga struck out four in two scoreless innings in Oakland on September 3rd. I was hoping he’d emerge as a multi-inning relief weapon in those final few weeks of the regular season — a higher end version of Adam Warren, basically — but it didn’t happen. Two very good starts and one nice two-inning relief appearances were the highlights of Loaisiga’s big league debut.

In terms of stuff, man did the kid show the goods. Loaisiga’s fastball averaged 95.9 mph. His breaking ball averaged 84.6 mph. His changeup averaged 88.2 mph. Everything he throws is hard. Also, Loaisiga’s average spin rates are quite good:

Fastball: 2,341 rpm (MLB average: 2,263 rpm)
Breaking ball: 2,648 rpm (MLB average: 2,434 rpm)
Changeup: 1,720 rpm (MLB average: 1,774 rpm)

The higher the spin, the better on fastballs and breaking balls. For changeups, lower spin is better. (Low spin is okay on fastballs too. You don’t want average spin on heaters though. High or low, nothing in between.) Loaisiga showed three legitimate Major League pitches in his brief time with the Yankees and he got swings and misses with everything. The kid also seemed very composed on the mound. Innings rarely spiraled out of control.

The Bad: In two of his big league starts, Loaisiga needed 84 pitches to allow three runs in 3.2 innings against the Mariners and 92 pitches to allow three runs in four innings against the Braves. Also, he got hit pretty hard in September. I’m talking eleven runs (eight earned) in four appearances and 4.2 innings after those two innings in Oakland. That included a six-run, 1.1-inning disaster against the Twins on September 11th. Ouch.

To me, Loaisiga’s struggles looked more like a young and inexperienced pitcher learning the ropes than anything. I didn’t see a flaw in his stuff. He executed some good fastballs and breaking balls off the plate, pitches hitters probably chase in the minors, and big leaguers didn’t bite. Considering his relative lack of minor league experience, it is not at all surprising Loaisiga was inefficient and a little lost at times. He’ll get better with time.

The Future: Loaisiga turned 24 earlier this month and he made it clear this season he has big league potential. The stuff is there and the composure was there. He’s a little green, which is to be expected. I definitely think Loaisiga has the stuff and command to start long-term. I just have no idea whether he’ll stay healthy. The injury history is ugly. Shoulder and elbow problems. He even missed time with shoulder fatigue after being sent back down this summer.

The range of potential outcomes for 2019 Loaisiga seem awfully large. I wouldn’t be surprised if he blows out his arm and misses the season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he throws 150-ish innings with a mid-3.00s ERA. The talent is there, unquestionably. Can he still healthy? Does all the missed time earlier in his career hold him back? Loaisiga has never pitched in Triple-A. Not one single pitch. I imagine he’ll spend most of next season there.

To me, Loaisiga seems like an excellent candidate for an opener. By that I mean a reliever starts the game, faces the top of the lineup, then turns it over to Loaisiga for four or five innings. That might be the best way to use him next year. Then, once he gets a little more comfortable and gains a little more experience, the Yankees will hopefully be able to turn him loose as a full-fledged starter. The little bit we saw this year was promising though. It was a remarkable rise from relative unknown to big leaguer for Johnny Lasagna in 2018.

The Sub-Replacement Relievers [2018 Season Review]

November 20, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The Yankees bullpen was nothing short of great this year, despite some noteworthy implosions and the occasionally questionable usage patterns. It ranked first in baseball in fWAR by a full win, and also paced the league in K% and WPA. And, even in the face of the occasional meltdown, they ranked second-to-last in FanGraphs meltdown metric – meaning those rough patches happened less frequently than all but one other team.

That, of course, does not mean that they were without weak links in the chain. Let’s take a look at their two worst relievers this year, beginning with:

A.J. Cole

On April 23, the Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals for cash considerations. It was essentially a nothing trade, with an eye towards depth rather than tangible improvements to the front end of the bullpen. There was some semblance of a notion that Cole could be more than that, given that he had only just turned 26, and was only a few years removed from being one of the 50 or so best prospects in baseball. His 5.32 ERA in 110.0 big league innings left a great deal to be desired – but, for cash and cash alone, it was a worthwhile move regardless of expectations.

And Cole kicked-off his Yankees career in rather grand fashion, tossing five straight scoreless outings, and pitching to the following line: 8.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 6 BB, 12 K. It was notable that those five appearances came over a four week span, so it wasn’t as though he was working regularly; moreover, the average leverage index was 0.73, which means that those appearances were predominantly low-pressure. But, even so, it seemed that Brian Cashman may’ve found another weapon for the bullpen.

Cole took his first lumps as a Yankee on May 28, allowing a run in 2.1 IP against the Astros. That, however, represented his worst appearance in his first three months with the team (albeit in just 13 games in that span). In that time Cole pitched to a 0.83 ERA in 21.2 IP, allowing just 18 base-runners while striking out 28. And, as a testament to his effectiveness, he did not allow a single one of his five inherited runners to score.

Was there something tangible here to tell us that he might be for real? Yes, actually: the Yankees anti-fastball approach.

As a member of the Nationals, Cole was throwing between 52 and 70% fastballs; with the Yankees, he threw 25.4% overall. He primarily replaced the fastball with sliders, and that made sense, given that (as per BrooksBaseball) his fastball was his worst pitch, and the slider his best. And it paid huge dividends for several month.

And then Cole fell apart.

It doesn’t bear reliving to a significant degree, but Cole would go on to make 15 more appearances in 2018, and he’d allow at least 1 run in 9 of those games. His line: 16.1 IP, 27 H, 21 R, 16 ER, 10 BB, 21 K, 8.82 ERA. Batters hit .346/.420/.744 with 8 home runs in 88 PA in this time, and Yankees fans had a collective coronary whenever he graced the mound.

What was the reason for this backslide? It’s not entirely clear. His velocity was steady, and batters continued to struggle against his slider even as he fell apart. It may’ve just been a matter of regression to the mean combined with the league learning to simply avoid his slider.

Cole ended the Bronx portion of his season with a 4.26 ERA in 38.0 ERA, which works out to a slightly above-average 103 ERA+. He still has five years of team control remaining, as per Baseball-Reference; he’s out of options, though, so he’d have to pass through waivers if the Yankees wanted to send him down. I could see him remaining with the organization as a depth arm, but there’s a good chance he’s done in pinstripes.

Tommy Kahnle

The Yankees acquired Kahnle from the White Sox a couple of weeks before the 2017 trade deadline, along with Todd Frazier and David Robertson. The latter two had more name value, but Kahnle was thought to be the the biggest and best chip in the deal. It’s not hard to see why, either; he was 27 at the time, came with four-plus seasons of team control remaining, and had been utterly dominant since first suiting up with the South Siders in 2017.

Kahnle was pretty darn good with the Yankees in 2017, pitching to a 2.70 ERA (169 ERA+) in 26.2 IP, and continuing to mow down batters to the tune of a 31.3% strikeout rate. His walk rate spiked from 5.0% in Chicago to 8.7% in the Bronx, which was somewhat disconcerting – but it was still league-average, and it didn’t hinder his overall effectiveness. All signs pointed to Kahnle being a true weapon in the late innings.

And then Kahnle opened the season with a stark reduction in his velocity, and limped out to a 6.14 ERA in his first six appearances. There was nothing promising about those outings, either; I suppose you could point to his 9 strikeouts in 7.1 IP, but those were countered by 8 walks, and it looked like the pre-Chicago version of Kahnle was back. It was so bothersome that there was a collective sigh of relief when he hit the DL with tendinitis on April 17, as it meant that there was an underlying cause for his awfulness beyond him … well … being awful.

Kahnle made a couple of tune-up appearances in the minors in late May, and didn’t look too good, allowing five hits (including a home run) and two runs in three innings. There were reports that his velocity was still down, but he nevertheless rejoined the team and returned to big league action on May 26. He faced-off against the Angels that day, and allowed two hits, two walks, and four runs in 0.2 IP. His fastball velocity was back above 96 MPH, but he looked bad. And he was back in the minors a week later.

Kahnle spent all of June and July in Triple-A, and he was effective, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and striking out 31 (against 8 walks) in 20.2 IP. The velocity was still down in the 95-96 range, instead of the 98ish that we saw in 2017, but he was getting outs, and that’s what matters. His free agency was also delayed for a year, which is a fringe benefit (assuming that he’s worth having around).

The now 29-year-old returned to the Yankees for good in mid-August, but the struggles continued. He appeared in fifteen games from that point forward, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in 13.1 IP; he continued to strike out batters in droves, with 19 strikeouts, and his 5 walks were palatable – but he was hit hard when batters did make contact. It was ugly. All told, Kahnle pitched to a 6.56 ERA (67 ERA+) in 23.1 big league innings.

Unlike Cole, it’s easy to pinpoint a reason for Kahnle’s struggles – and it comes in graph form.

Kahnle’s fastball averaged 97.0 MPH in 2016, 98.1 in 2017, and 95.5 in 2018 – and that’s incredibly significant. His other offerings dipped at similar rates, too, so it does make one wonder if the aforementioned shoulder tendinitis played a role throughout the season. His overall walk rate of 14.0% was awful, but his walks trended downwards when he was recalled, and it didn’t really matter; Kahnle’s biggest issue was that batters were able to square-up all of his pitches and drive them with authority. The fact that he wasn’t locating didn’t help, of course, but it’s a bit easier to get away with that when you have truly elite stuff (see: Betances, Dellin).

The Yankees have three more years of team control remaining on Kahnle, and this will be his second trip through arbitration as a Super Two. He’s slated to earn about $1.5 MM this year, and I fully expect the team to keep him around for at least another season, with the hopes that an off-season of rest will cure what ails him.

The Traded Middle Relievers [2018 Season Review]

November 19, 2018 by Mike

Although there were a few hiccups along the way, the bullpen was an overwhelming strength for the Yankees in 2018. Dellin Betances was dominant in the eighth inning and David Robertson, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder were very effective in the sixth and seventh innings. Aroldis Chapman was as good as he’s ever been, at least when his knee wasn’t acting up.

The high-leverage relievers get all the glory. Many games are won and lost in the middle innings though, especially nowadays with starters throwing fewer innings than ever. Those fifth and sixth inning situations are every bit as important as the eighth and ninth innings. And, for much of this year, lefty Chasen Shreve and righty Adam Warren handled those middle innings for the Yankees.

Warren and Shreve started the 2018 season as, at best, the fifth and sixth best relievers in the bullpen. They finished the 2018 season in other uniforms. Warren and Shreve were traded roughly 43 hours apart in the days leading up to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and they were traded for very different reasons. Let’s review their half-seasons in pinstripes.

Chasen Shreve

Shreve joined the Yankees almost four years ago in a January 2015 trade with the Braves. Former top prospect Manny Banuelos went to Atlanta for Shreve and David Carpenter. Feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it? Shreve went up-and-down (mostly up) from 2015-17 before running out of minor league options and having to stick for good in 2018.

2018 Performance: Much like 2015-17, the 2018 season featured stretches of dominance and stretches where Shreve was simply unplayable. He carried a 0.00 ERA into early May and held opponents to a .156/.240/.289 batting line with 16 strikeouts in his first 12 innings. That was one of those “hey maybe he’s back to where he was in the first half of 2015” stretches. It didn’t last. It never did with Shreve.

On May 4th, Shreve faced four Indians batters, allowed all four to reach base, and was charged with four earned runs. That 0.00 ERA became a 3.75 ERA in the span of 16 pitches. Shreve was okay for a few weeks after that before the wheels came off in late May. Two runs on May 23rd. Two more runs on May 26th. Six runs in 7.1 innings spanning eight appearances from June 13th to June 30th.

Shreve took a 4.97 ERA (5.51 FIP) into July. He’d thrown 29 innings. Aaron Boone limited to Shreve to low leverage work in July — only twice in nine July outings did Shreve enter with the score separated by fewer than three runs — and he finished the Yankees portion of his season with a 4.26 ERA (4.98 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 38 innings. The strikeouts were nice. The overall body of work was as close to replacement level as it gets.

Signature Moment™: This is easy. It was July 21st against the Mets. Chapman needed work after a long layoff during the All-Star break, so he entered the ninth inning with a four-run lead. His inning went walk, single, walk, walk, hit-by-pitch. Five batters, 19 pitches, three strikes. Two runs were in and the Mets had the bases loaded with no outs. Betances, Robertson, and Holder all pitched earlier in the game and Green had a long outing the previous day, so he was unavailable.

Boone had two options. He could stick with Chapman or go to Shreve. Sticking with Chapman did not seem wise given the way he was throwing. Shreve it was. Chasen inherited the bases loaded with no outs situation, and nailed down the save with a 4-3 double play and a tapper back in front of the plate. Ex-frickin-hale.

That was career save No. 2 for Shreve. (He saved an extra innings game in Kansas City in 2016.) It was also his third-to-last appearance as a Yankee. He faced five batters and allowed three hits on July 26th and faced five batters and allowed one run on July 28th. That July 28th appearance came in the first game of a doubleheader. Shreve was traded after the second game of the day.

Why Was He Traded? The Yankees acquired J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays on July 26th and, at the time, they Yankees were carrying four starters and nine relievers. A reliever had to go to make room for Happ and it was either Shreve or A.J. Cole. Cole was pitching pretty well at the time, remember. The writing had been on the wall for weeks. The only question was either Shreve would be traded or designated for assignment.

Following that July 28th doubleheader the Yankees traded Shreve (and Gio Gallegos) to the Cardinals for Luke Voit (and international bonus money). Happ had his roster spot and the Yankees had a right-handed hitting first baseman to replace Tyler Austin, who would soon to be traded to the Twins. Shreve was very emotional after the deal was announced.

Rough. Players love being Yankees. They rarely want to leave. Shreve had been with the team for three and a half years and had grown close with many teammates. It’s a business though, and if you don’t perform, teams will find guys who do. The fact Shreve’s a lefty who can miss bats meant he had some trade value and wasn’t simply cast aside on waivers.

What’d He Do After The Trade? Typical Chasen Shreve stuff. He threw 14.2 innings with a 3.07 ERA for St. Louis but man, the peripherals were ugly: 24.6% strikeouts, 13.9% walks, 20.5% ground balls, and a 1.84 HR/9 for a 5.48 FIP. Shreve finished the 2018 season with a 3.93 ERA (5.12 FIP) in 52.2 innings total. He is arbitration-eligible for the second time as a Super Two this offseason and MLBTR projects a $1.2M salary in 2019. I could see him being non-tendered at that salary.

Yankee Legacy: Shreve was legitimately excellent for the first four months of 2015. Remember that? He had a 1.89 ERA (3.86 FIP) in 52.1 innings before things fell apart in September. Shreve and the Yankees then spent 2016-18 chasing that 2015 success. He finished his Yankees career with a 3.92 ERA (4.99 FIP) in 174.2 innings. That’s good for +1.8 WAR. There were some moments of greatness, but, by and large, we spent the last few years wondering how many more chances Shreve would get.

Adam Warren

Unlike Shreve, Warren was an original Yankees draft pick. They took him in the fourth round in the 2009 draft. He’d been teammates with future big leaguers Matt Harvey, Dustin Ackley, and Kyle Seager at UNC. The Yankees traded Warren to the Cubs for Starlin Castro in December 2015, realized they couldn’t live without him, then reacquired him in the Chapman trade at the 2016 deadline.

2018 Performance: In his very first appearance of the 2018 season, Warren took a comebacker to the right ankle and was put on the shelf for a few days. Then, in late April, he went down with a back problem that sidelined him a little more than six weeks. It was during that six-week absence that Cole seemingly emerged as a reliable multi-inning middle reliever. That jack of all trades reliever.

Around the ankle and back injuries Warren had a typical Adam Warren season. He threw 30 innings with the Yankees and posted a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) with strikeout (28.9%) and walk (9.4%) rates that ranked among the highest of his career. The Yankees got Warren to buy into the anti-fastball philosophy — he threw more sliders (45.4%) than fastballs (38.9%) before the trade — and the strikeouts ticked up.

Warren was the Swiss Army Knife reliever under Boone the same way he was under Joe Girardi. He entered games in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth (and 12th) innings and in just about every situation. High leverage, low leverage, you name it. The back injury cost him six weeks. Otherwise Warren was very effective and used pretty much whenever needed. Can’t beat that kind of versatility.

Signature Moment™: Eh, Warren didn’t really have a signature moment this season. Certainly nothing like Shreve bailing out Chapman. How often do middle relievers have signature moments anyway? I guess Warren’s signature moment came on July 8th. With the score tied 1-1 and the bullpen a little short due to recent workloads, Warren threw scoreless seventh and eighth innings in Toronto to set the Yankees up for a tenth inning win.

At +0.193 WPA, it was Warren’s most impactful game of the season. Not the greatest highlight, I know, but two scoreless and thankless innings in a win is about as Adam Warren as it gets.

Why Was He Traded? We all knew Shreve was a goner. The Warren trade was a surprise and it was part of a series of moves. First, the Yankees traded Shreve for Voit, which gave them right-handed hitting first base depth. That allowed them to trade Austin for Lance Lynn. And, with Lynn on-board as a multi-inning relief option, the Yankees traded Warren straight up for international bonus money. Specifically $1.25M from the Mariners.

There were a few layers to this. For starters, it was a salary offset. The Twins paid half Lynn’s remaining salary and dumping Warren made the Lynn pickup salary neutral. That was not a small thing given the luxury tax plan. And two, the Yankees wanted someone better able to move into the rotation, if necessary, and it turned out to be necessary thanks to Sonny Gray. Lynn was stretched out to 100 pitches. Warren was not.

“Adam Warren was probably going to give us no more than 20 innings the rest of the way before free agency. It gave us a chance if we could make this all work — the price tag of what it would cost to import Lynn and then cash in and capitalize on value left on Warren — we would try to do it all,” said Brian Cashman after the trade (video link). “… We were able to trade Warren to the Mariners for slot money. That whole combination allowed us to (max out our international bonus pool).”

The Yankees immediately turned around and used the Warren bonus money to sign Cuban shortstop Alexander Vargas to a $2.5M bonus. Vargas was one of the top international prospects on the market and Cashman said Vargas was likely going to sign with a “big market team out west” had the Yankees not brought in more bonus money through the Warren trade. (The Dodgers were the only West Coast team not limited to the $300,000 maximum bonus as a result of past international spending, so I assume that’s where Vargas would’ve gone.)

So, to wrap that all up, the Yankees traded Warren for three reasons. One, they wanted a pitcher better able to step into the rotation in Lynn. Two, they wanted to offset Lynn’s salary. And three, they wanted the international bonus money to sign Vargas. Trading a quality multi-inning reliever to a fellow AL contender (the Mariners were in wildcard position the day of the Warren trade) seemed awfully weird, especially since the Yankees had a more disposable reliever in Cole and appeared to have the payroll room to keep Warren and add Lynn, but whatever.

What’d He Do After The Trade? Meh. Warren threw 21.2 innings with a 3.74 ERA (4.82 FIP) with the Mariners as they crashed out of the postseason race. He was fine. Not great, not terrible. He was fine. Warren with the Yankees: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings. Warren with the Cubs and Mariners: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings. He ~~can’t~~ can only handle New York!

Yankee Legacy: Warren is the closest thing the Yankees have had to Ramiro Mendoza since Ramiro Mendoza. He was the rubber-armed do-it-all reliever. Warren was never the team’s best reliever. Heck, he never their second or third best reliever, but he was as steady and reliable as middle relievers come. I’ll always remember Warren’s three-inning appearance the night the Yankees clinched a postseason spot in 2015. The bullpen had been worked hard in previous days and Warren stepped in to throw scoreless sixth, seventh, and eighth innings with a small lead.

That was Adam Warren the last few years. He did whatever the Yankees needed for however many innings the Yankees needed. From 2013-18, his +7.2 WAR made him a top 25 reliever in baseball, and remember, he was at +7.6 WAR with the Yankees. Warren was rock solid and seemingly perpetually underappreciated. He’s a free agent this winter and I guess a reunion is possible, but it seems unlikely. The Yankees got the best years of his career and they’ll likely let someone else pay for his decline.

The Mostly Effective and Inoffensive Middle Reliever [2018 Season Review]

November 16, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

Way back in March, just after he was named to the team’s Opening Day roster, I suggested that Jonathan Holder would remain a part of the Yankees bullpen shuttle between the Bronx and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. I was impressed by his solid half-season in pinstripes, but skeptical about his ability to be a true relief weapon due to his lack of high-end stuff and questionable efficacy against left-handed hitters; as such, I would not have been shocked if he ended up out of favor in short order. Instead, he served as an integral piece of the bullpen this year from wire-to-wire.

You can’t predict baseball, am I right?

The Inauspicious Start

Holder did not look the part of a big-league reliever over his first three appearances – and that’s putting it lightly. His first outing shows up as a scoreless 0.1 IP effort, which is fine; however, he allowed an inherited runner to score, which gave the Blue Jays a one-run lead in the bottom of the sixth. He didn’t return for the seventh, and the Yankees ended up losing.

The next time out was much worse. Holder was given the ball in the top of the sixth against the Rays, and struck out Carlos Gomez looking. He then surrendered, in order, a double to C.J. Cron, a single to Wilson Ramos, and RBI single to future Yankee Adeiny Hechavarria, and a single to Jesus Sucre. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of hitters, and Holder looked absolutely lost. Tommy Kahnle came in after the Sucre single loaded the bases, and eventually allowed a two-RBI double to Denard Span. That’s not entirely on Holder, to be sure – but it certainly didn’t look like he’d fare better, either.

Holder’s next outing came three days later, when he was called into the game in the 13th against the Orioles. He tossed a one-two-three inning, which was nails, and then came out for the top of the 14th. The first three batters reached base (via a walk, a single, and an E5), and then Adam Jones struck out looking. And then, this:

I feel dirty just for sharing that.

Through three appearances, Holder boasted the following line: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 20.25 ERA. He faced 17 batters in those 2.2 innings, and they hit .467/.500/.733 in this time frame. And he was subsequently demoted to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Two Months of Dominance

Holder was recalled on April 21, and was called upon that day to close out a blow-out victory over the Blue Jays. And he nailed it down, tossing two scoreless and base-runner-free innings.

A great deal was written about the fact that he wouldn’t allow another earned run until June 30 (though, he did surrender unearned runs twice in between), and it was an incredibly welcome sight, to say the least. And from the date of his recall through the All-Star break, he pitched to the following line: 36.1 IP, 19 H, 5 BB, 30 K, 0.50 ERA, 2.01 FIP. It’s difficult to ask for much more from a reliever that entered the season seventh or eight on the bullpen’s depth chart.

Was there any change that led to this abrupt turnaround? Maybe!

In Holder’s first few appearances, he threw lots of cutters and lots of curves. When he returned to the Yankees bullpen, he scrapped those offerings entirely, and replaced them with more … well … everything else. It made sense, considering (small sample size alert) that batters were hitting .333 against his curve and .556(!) against his cutter, and it paid immediate dividends.

Another Rough Patch

Holder was in Aaron Boone’s circle of trust coming out of the All-Star break, and he rewarded the rookie manager by allowing 10 earned runs over his next seven appearances. That’s admittedly skewed by a 0-out, 7-run effort on August 2 – but he nevertheless allowed at least one run in four of those games. And his ERA jumped from 1.76 to 3.65 in the span of 3.1 IP, which just goes to show how volatile a reliever’s peripherals can be.

He did make history in this stretch, however, becoming the first Yankee in nearly 40 years to allow 7 ER without recording an out. Unlike that pitcher – Bob Kammeyer – Holder wasn’t laughed out of the majors immediately after this outing.

An Encouraging Stretch Run

Holder returned to form after stumbling out of the break, tossing eight consecutive scoreless outings immediately thereafter, and allowing just five runs in his final twenty appearances (21.2 IP) – and two of those runs came in a meaningless game (that the Yankees won) in the last series of the season. He pitched to a 2.08 ERA in this time, and held opposing batters to a .190 BA. That was the guy that we saw for two-plus months in the Spring, and that’s the guy that the Yankees would love to count on going forward.

He finished the season with the following line: 66.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 3.14 ERA (140 ERA+), 3.04 FIP.

What’s Next?

More of the same, I expect. Holder is under team control through 2023, and won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2020-21 off-season, so the Yankees will continue to give him opportunities to succeed. If he’s the pitcher we saw in May, June, August, and September, then he’s a legitimate weapon in any bullpen role; if he continues to have his ups and downs, he’s a perfectly acceptable middle reliever (especially for the cost). And, while I’d prefer the former, the latter is more than fine for the team’s fourth or fifth best reliever.