Adam Warren Archives - River Avenue Blues

A reunion with Adam Warren could make sense as the Yanks round out their bullpen

January 21, 2019 by Mike

With Spring Training roughly three weeks away, the Yankees have accomplished their reported goal of adding two relievers this offseason. They re-signed Zach Britton two weeks ago and agreed to a deal with Adam Ottavino last week. Those two join Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder to form a very strong bullpen top six. That’s quite a reliever core.

The Yankees still have two bullpen spots to figure out, assuming they continue forward with an eight-man bullpen. Tommy Kahnle is likely to get a chance to show he can get back to his 2017 form, but, even if he does, the Yankees still want another swingman/sixth starter type to replace the soon-to-be traded Sonny Gray. Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga will be stashed in Triple-A as rotation depth. The Yankees still need a long reliever.

Relievers are pretty much the only free agents getting paid these days. Even then, there are still plenty of bullpen arms sitting in free agency. I count 45 of them. Among those 45 is two-time former Yankee Adam Warren, who’s market seems to be heating up. The Rangers want him (per Ken Rosenthal), the Cubs want him (per Rosenthal), and the Mets want him (per Andy Martino). Some team will sign Warren soon enough.

The Yankees have not been connected to Warren at all but a reunion does make some sense even after spending big for Britton and Ottavino. For starters, Warren is still very effective, throwing 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) in pinstripes last year. He wasn’t as good with the Mariners (3.74 ERA and 4.82 FIP) and his career splits are kinda funny:

As a Yankee: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings
As a Not Yankee: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings

We always hear about guys who can’t handle New York. Is there such a thing as a guy who can only handle New York? That might be Warren. In all seriousness, the Yankees know Warren and vice versa, and that’s not nothing. They know they can plug him right into their environment and he’ll handle it well. The ballpark, the clubhouse, the coaching staff, his role in the bullpen. No questions asked.

After returning to the Yankees at the 2016 trade deadline Warren bought into the anti-fastball plan …

… and the result was the best strikeout numbers of his career. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but, in his second stint as a Yankee, Warren struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced. It was 20.3% in his first stint as a Yankee and 19.5% in the season before the trade to the Cubs. Point is, Warren adapted and remained effective, so you know he can make adjustments.

There’s also the multi-inning potential. Warren didn’t do it quite as much last year — eight times in 24 appearances with the Yankees did he record at least four outs — but he still did it, and at age 31, he’s not so past his prime that it’s unreasonable to think he could do it for another year. When your starters don’t pitch deep into games, having a versatile multi-inning reliever in the bullpen is an obvious plus. The Yankees are said to want one.

Warren earned $3.315M last season and my hunch is he’s looking at something along the lines of Jesse Chavez (two years, $8M) and Hector Rondon (two years, $8.5M) money. Maybe he could milk a team for $10M across two years. Either way, that is the kind of contract that can fit into any team’s budget, even if the Yankees consider the $226M second luxury tax tier a hard spending limit. Even though he’d be at best the sixth reliever in the Yankees’ bullpen, Warren has shown over the years how valuable he can be in that role.

The question now is does Warren want to come back to the Yankees? By all accounts he loved being a Yankee and the team appreciated his professionalism and that he’s low maintenance. The Yankees have traded him twice though. Does Warren want to open himself to that possibility again? Would another team offer him a chance at high-leverage work or (gasp) give him a chance to start? I imagine he’d take that over being sixth (at best) on the bullpen depth chart with the Yankees.

Also, money will be a factor. Warren turns 32 in August and this may be his only chance at a nice free agent payday. Being a middle reliever doesn’t pay all that well and there’s minimal job security. Warren earned $8.9M in player contracts during his six years of team control, so while he’s done well, he hasn’t cashed in huge. This offseason might be his only chance at a good free agent deal. I’d bet on Warren signing with the highest bidder regardless of his role with the team. Gotta cash in while you can.

The Yankees don’t have to spend big on another reliever after signing Ottavino. The goal now is adding depth — quality depth — and a reunion with Warren would strengthen one of those final two bullpen spots. Maybe he can’t be a true sixth starter, but he can be a long guy. The Yankees know Warren and Warren knows the Yankees. As the seventh or eighth guy in the bullpen, the Yankees could do a heck of a lot worse than a third stint with Warren.

The Traded Middle Relievers [2018 Season Review]

November 19, 2018 by Mike

Although there were a few hiccups along the way, the bullpen was an overwhelming strength for the Yankees in 2018. Dellin Betances was dominant in the eighth inning and David Robertson, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder were very effective in the sixth and seventh innings. Aroldis Chapman was as good as he’s ever been, at least when his knee wasn’t acting up.

The high-leverage relievers get all the glory. Many games are won and lost in the middle innings though, especially nowadays with starters throwing fewer innings than ever. Those fifth and sixth inning situations are every bit as important as the eighth and ninth innings. And, for much of this year, lefty Chasen Shreve and righty Adam Warren handled those middle innings for the Yankees.

Warren and Shreve started the 2018 season as, at best, the fifth and sixth best relievers in the bullpen. They finished the 2018 season in other uniforms. Warren and Shreve were traded roughly 43 hours apart in the days leading up to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline and they were traded for very different reasons. Let’s review their half-seasons in pinstripes.

Chasen Shreve

Shreve joined the Yankees almost four years ago in a January 2015 trade with the Braves. Former top prospect Manny Banuelos went to Atlanta for Shreve and David Carpenter. Feels like a lifetime ago, doesn’t it? Shreve went up-and-down (mostly up) from 2015-17 before running out of minor league options and having to stick for good in 2018.

2018 Performance: Much like 2015-17, the 2018 season featured stretches of dominance and stretches where Shreve was simply unplayable. He carried a 0.00 ERA into early May and held opponents to a .156/.240/.289 batting line with 16 strikeouts in his first 12 innings. That was one of those “hey maybe he’s back to where he was in the first half of 2015” stretches. It didn’t last. It never did with Shreve.

On May 4th, Shreve faced four Indians batters, allowed all four to reach base, and was charged with four earned runs. That 0.00 ERA became a 3.75 ERA in the span of 16 pitches. Shreve was okay for a few weeks after that before the wheels came off in late May. Two runs on May 23rd. Two more runs on May 26th. Six runs in 7.1 innings spanning eight appearances from June 13th to June 30th.

Shreve took a 4.97 ERA (5.51 FIP) into July. He’d thrown 29 innings. Aaron Boone limited to Shreve to low leverage work in July — only twice in nine July outings did Shreve enter with the score separated by fewer than three runs — and he finished the Yankees portion of his season with a 4.26 ERA (4.98 FIP) with 27.1% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 38 innings. The strikeouts were nice. The overall body of work was as close to replacement level as it gets.

Signature Moment™: This is easy. It was July 21st against the Mets. Chapman needed work after a long layoff during the All-Star break, so he entered the ninth inning with a four-run lead. His inning went walk, single, walk, walk, hit-by-pitch. Five batters, 19 pitches, three strikes. Two runs were in and the Mets had the bases loaded with no outs. Betances, Robertson, and Holder all pitched earlier in the game and Green had a long outing the previous day, so he was unavailable.

Boone had two options. He could stick with Chapman or go to Shreve. Sticking with Chapman did not seem wise given the way he was throwing. Shreve it was. Chasen inherited the bases loaded with no outs situation, and nailed down the save with a 4-3 double play and a tapper back in front of the plate. Ex-frickin-hale.

That was career save No. 2 for Shreve. (He saved an extra innings game in Kansas City in 2016.) It was also his third-to-last appearance as a Yankee. He faced five batters and allowed three hits on July 26th and faced five batters and allowed one run on July 28th. That July 28th appearance came in the first game of a doubleheader. Shreve was traded after the second game of the day.

Why Was He Traded? The Yankees acquired J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays on July 26th and, at the time, they Yankees were carrying four starters and nine relievers. A reliever had to go to make room for Happ and it was either Shreve or A.J. Cole. Cole was pitching pretty well at the time, remember. The writing had been on the wall for weeks. The only question was either Shreve would be traded or designated for assignment.

Following that July 28th doubleheader the Yankees traded Shreve (and Gio Gallegos) to the Cardinals for Luke Voit (and international bonus money). Happ had his roster spot and the Yankees had a right-handed hitting first baseman to replace Tyler Austin, who would soon to be traded to the Twins. Shreve was very emotional after the deal was announced.

Rough. Players love being Yankees. They rarely want to leave. Shreve had been with the team for three and a half years and had grown close with many teammates. It’s a business though, and if you don’t perform, teams will find guys who do. The fact Shreve’s a lefty who can miss bats meant he had some trade value and wasn’t simply cast aside on waivers.

What’d He Do After The Trade? Typical Chasen Shreve stuff. He threw 14.2 innings with a 3.07 ERA for St. Louis but man, the peripherals were ugly: 24.6% strikeouts, 13.9% walks, 20.5% ground balls, and a 1.84 HR/9 for a 5.48 FIP. Shreve finished the 2018 season with a 3.93 ERA (5.12 FIP) in 52.2 innings total. He is arbitration-eligible for the second time as a Super Two this offseason and MLBTR projects a $1.2M salary in 2019. I could see him being non-tendered at that salary.

Yankee Legacy: Shreve was legitimately excellent for the first four months of 2015. Remember that? He had a 1.89 ERA (3.86 FIP) in 52.1 innings before things fell apart in September. Shreve and the Yankees then spent 2016-18 chasing that 2015 success. He finished his Yankees career with a 3.92 ERA (4.99 FIP) in 174.2 innings. That’s good for +1.8 WAR. There were some moments of greatness, but, by and large, we spent the last few years wondering how many more chances Shreve would get.

Adam Warren

Unlike Shreve, Warren was an original Yankees draft pick. They took him in the fourth round in the 2009 draft. He’d been teammates with future big leaguers Matt Harvey, Dustin Ackley, and Kyle Seager at UNC. The Yankees traded Warren to the Cubs for Starlin Castro in December 2015, realized they couldn’t live without him, then reacquired him in the Chapman trade at the 2016 deadline.

2018 Performance: In his very first appearance of the 2018 season, Warren took a comebacker to the right ankle and was put on the shelf for a few days. Then, in late April, he went down with a back problem that sidelined him a little more than six weeks. It was during that six-week absence that Cole seemingly emerged as a reliable multi-inning middle reliever. That jack of all trades reliever.

Around the ankle and back injuries Warren had a typical Adam Warren season. He threw 30 innings with the Yankees and posted a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) with strikeout (28.9%) and walk (9.4%) rates that ranked among the highest of his career. The Yankees got Warren to buy into the anti-fastball philosophy — he threw more sliders (45.4%) than fastballs (38.9%) before the trade — and the strikeouts ticked up.

Warren was the Swiss Army Knife reliever under Boone the same way he was under Joe Girardi. He entered games in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth (and 12th) innings and in just about every situation. High leverage, low leverage, you name it. The back injury cost him six weeks. Otherwise Warren was very effective and used pretty much whenever needed. Can’t beat that kind of versatility.

Signature Moment™: Eh, Warren didn’t really have a signature moment this season. Certainly nothing like Shreve bailing out Chapman. How often do middle relievers have signature moments anyway? I guess Warren’s signature moment came on July 8th. With the score tied 1-1 and the bullpen a little short due to recent workloads, Warren threw scoreless seventh and eighth innings in Toronto to set the Yankees up for a tenth inning win.

At +0.193 WPA, it was Warren’s most impactful game of the season. Not the greatest highlight, I know, but two scoreless and thankless innings in a win is about as Adam Warren as it gets.

Why Was He Traded? We all knew Shreve was a goner. The Warren trade was a surprise and it was part of a series of moves. First, the Yankees traded Shreve for Voit, which gave them right-handed hitting first base depth. That allowed them to trade Austin for Lance Lynn. And, with Lynn on-board as a multi-inning relief option, the Yankees traded Warren straight up for international bonus money. Specifically $1.25M from the Mariners.

There were a few layers to this. For starters, it was a salary offset. The Twins paid half Lynn’s remaining salary and dumping Warren made the Lynn pickup salary neutral. That was not a small thing given the luxury tax plan. And two, the Yankees wanted someone better able to move into the rotation, if necessary, and it turned out to be necessary thanks to Sonny Gray. Lynn was stretched out to 100 pitches. Warren was not.

“Adam Warren was probably going to give us no more than 20 innings the rest of the way before free agency. It gave us a chance if we could make this all work — the price tag of what it would cost to import Lynn and then cash in and capitalize on value left on Warren — we would try to do it all,” said Brian Cashman after the trade (video link). “… We were able to trade Warren to the Mariners for slot money. That whole combination allowed us to (max out our international bonus pool).”

The Yankees immediately turned around and used the Warren bonus money to sign Cuban shortstop Alexander Vargas to a $2.5M bonus. Vargas was one of the top international prospects on the market and Cashman said Vargas was likely going to sign with a “big market team out west” had the Yankees not brought in more bonus money through the Warren trade. (The Dodgers were the only West Coast team not limited to the $300,000 maximum bonus as a result of past international spending, so I assume that’s where Vargas would’ve gone.)

So, to wrap that all up, the Yankees traded Warren for three reasons. One, they wanted a pitcher better able to step into the rotation in Lynn. Two, they wanted to offset Lynn’s salary. And three, they wanted the international bonus money to sign Vargas. Trading a quality multi-inning reliever to a fellow AL contender (the Mariners were in wildcard position the day of the Warren trade) seemed awfully weird, especially since the Yankees had a more disposable reliever in Cole and appeared to have the payroll room to keep Warren and add Lynn, but whatever.

What’d He Do After The Trade? Meh. Warren threw 21.2 innings with a 3.74 ERA (4.82 FIP) with the Mariners as they crashed out of the postseason race. He was fine. Not great, not terrible. He was fine. Warren with the Yankees: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings. Warren with the Cubs and Mariners: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings. He ~~can’t~~ can only handle New York!

Yankee Legacy: Warren is the closest thing the Yankees have had to Ramiro Mendoza since Ramiro Mendoza. He was the rubber-armed do-it-all reliever. Warren was never the team’s best reliever. Heck, he never their second or third best reliever, but he was as steady and reliable as middle relievers come. I’ll always remember Warren’s three-inning appearance the night the Yankees clinched a postseason spot in 2015. The bullpen had been worked hard in previous days and Warren stepped in to throw scoreless sixth, seventh, and eighth innings with a small lead.

That was Adam Warren the last few years. He did whatever the Yankees needed for however many innings the Yankees needed. From 2013-18, his +7.2 WAR made him a top 25 reliever in baseball, and remember, he was at +7.6 WAR with the Yankees. Warren was rock solid and seemingly perpetually underappreciated. He’s a free agent this winter and I guess a reunion is possible, but it seems unlikely. The Yankees got the best years of his career and they’ll likely let someone else pay for his decline.

Yanks trade Warren to Mariners for international bonus money

July 30, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Rather than continue to add, the Yankees subtracted from their roster the day before the 2018 trade deadline. Adam Warren has been traded to the Mariners for international bonus money, both teams announced. Mark Feinsand says the Yankees are getting $1.25M. The trade is official.

It is entirely possible, if not likely, there are still other dominoes still to fall here. At the moment, the Yankees essentially salary dumped a reliable and versatile reliever in the middle of a postseason race. Salary dumped him to not just a fellow AL contender, but a team they could very well face in the AL Wild Card Game if they don’t win the AL East. Huh.

Warren, 30, has a 2.70 ERA (3.30 FIP) with 28.9% strikeouts and 9.4% walks in 30 innings around a lat injury this season. Typical Warren, basically. Boring, reliable. He was probably the seventh best reliever in the bullpen, but he might be Seattle’s third best. The Yankees save about $1.1M against the luxury tax in the trade.

Between the recent Warren ($1.25M), Caleb Frare ($1.25M), and Luke Voit ($1M) trades, the Yankees have maxed out their 2018-19 international bonus pool at $8,721,125. They started with $4,983,500 bonus pool and teams are allowed to add an additional 75% through trades. The Yankees have done that. Their pool is maxed out.

Most of the top international prospects have already signed, though top Cuban outfield prospect Victor Victor Mesa remains available. He has not yet been cleared to sign, but, if the Yankees are going to make a run at him, they’re in position to do so. They’ve added as much bonus money as possible. Here are the team’s other international signings.

2018 Midseason Review: The Bullpen

July 18, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

As expected, the bullpen has been a strength for the Yankees so far this season. The relief crew actually got off to a bit of a rocky start the first week or two, though things have settled down nicely since, and Aaron Boone now has arguably the best and deepest bullpen in the game at his disposal.

Here are the team’s bullpen ranks 95 games into the season:

ERA: 2.69 (first)
FIP: 3.01 (second)
WHIP: 1.08 (second)
Strikeout Rate: 31.6% (first)
Shutdowns: 102 (fifth)
Meltdowns: 37 (first)
WAR: +6.6 (first)

Shutdowns and meltdowns are a neat win probability stat. Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team’s win probability least 6%. Meltdowns are relief appearances that decrease the team’s win probability at least 6%. Long story short, the Yankees have had an excellent bullpen this year, and that was the expectation coming into the season. Time to grade the relievers.

Dellin Betances

Midseason Grade: A

Expectations for Betances were pretty low coming into the season. He collapsed down the stretch last year and his control disappeared — Dellin walked eleven batters in his final 12.2 regular season innings — so much so that he was basically persona non grata in the postseason. Use only in an emergency. The Yankees stuck with Betances over the winter when much of the fan base was ready to dump him.

And, coming out of the gate this year, it seemed Betances was still broken. He allowed a homer in his first appearance of the season and Kevin Pillar embarrassed him by stealing his way around the bases in his second appearance. Six appearances into the season, Betances had allowed six runs on ten hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He allowed three homers in his first 6.2 innings this year after allowing three homers in 59.2 innings last year.

Something funny happened after that: All-Star Dellin Betances returned. The Yankees and Boone said they were going to stick with Betances and get him right, and they did. Since April 14th, Betances has pitched to a 1.56 ERA (1.70 FIP) with lots of strikeouts (44.1%), lots of grounders (48.2%), and a tolerable amount of walks (11.8%) in 34.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .121/.244/.164 against him in those 34.2 innings. The knee-bucklers are back. The swag is back.

With Betances, given his history, it always feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. Will this be the outing when he hits a batter and walks three? I get it, and it’s not an unreasonable feeling after last season. For now though, Betances has reclaimed the eighth inning setup role and gone back to being a monster strikeout machine. He could’ve gone to his fifth straight All-Star Game this year but did not. That doesn’t diminish his season performance at all.

Aroldis Chapman

Midseason Grade: A

The first year of Chapman’s reliever record five-year, $86M contract did not go according to plan. He got hurt early in the season and lost his closer’s job at midseason before finding it late and dominating in the postseason. This year, Chapman has come right out of the gate looking like the historically great late-inning reliever he’s been basically his entire career.

Through 95 team games Chapman has a 1.35 ERA (1.49 FIP) with his typically excellent strikeout rate (44.2%) and a strong ground ball rate (46.3%). His 10.4% walk rate is a tick below his 11.3% career average. Chapman is 26-for-27 in save chances and, in the one blown save, he didn’t even get hit around. A single, a hit-by-pitch, and two wild pitches pushed a run across. And the Yankees won that game anyway, so who cares?

We are more than halfway through the season now, so we can say for sure Chapman’s trademark velocity is down a tick. He’s averaging a still otherworldly 99.7 mph with his fastball. That’s down from 100.2 mph last year and 101.1 mph the year before. You have to go back to 2013 for the last time Chapman’s average fastball velocity was this low. We still see a few 103s and 104s, though not nearly as frequently as in the past.

Chapman is 30 years old now and he has been pitching basically his entire life, so a little velocity loss is no surprise. It is completely natural. He’s compensated for that velocity loss — again, the dude is still averaging 99.7 mph with his heater, so it’s not like he’s out there slinging mid-80s gas — with more sinkers and more sliders, especially with two strikes. It has worked wonderfully too.

Amazingly, Chapman has pitched this well despite ongoing tendinitis in his left (push-off) knee. He’s been dealing with it for weeks and he’s admitted he’ll probably have to deal with it all season. Chapman is getting regular treatment and it hasn’t stopped him from taking the mound — the knee did force him to leave a game earlier this month, though that had more to do with not wanting to push it with a four-run lead than “I can’t pitch it hurts too much” — so that’s good.

I’m not a big fan of players — especially very important players — playing through an injury, but what I think doesn’t matter, so Chapman will continue to pitch through the knee trouble. The doctors know better than me anyway. Even with the knee trouble, Chapman is having a truly outstanding season, a season that deservedly sent him to the All-Star Game. He’s been a rock in the ninth inning. Hand him a lead and the game is over.

A.J. Cole

Midseason Grade: A+

Cole is that kid whose family moved in the middle of the school year and the teachers at his new school grade him on a curve. The Yankees acquired Cole from the Nationals in a cash trade on April 24th because they needed a long man, and, as a 26-year-old former top 100 prospect, he offered some upside. Cole was terrible with Washington — he allowed 15 runs and 22 baserunners in 10.1 innings before the trade — but he was a low risk pickup. At worst, he’d soak up some innings in a blowout, then be cast aside for the next guy.

Instead, Cole has become the best long man the Yankees have had in quite some time. Probably since 2013 Adam Warren. He’s allowed one run in 18.2 innings around a minor neck injury, striking out 24 and holding opponents to a .172/.243/.234 batting line against. The Yankees, as they are wont to do, have Cole throwing far more sliders than ever before.

The Yankees have such a good bullpen that they haven’t needed Cole to pitch in high (or even medium) leverage situations. His average leverage index when entering the game is 0.53. That’s nothing. That is 33rd lowest among the 324 relievers with at least ten innings pitched this season. Perhaps there will come a time when Cole can audition for high leverage work. Right now, the Yankees don’t need him in that role. He can be a highly effective long man and there’s nothing wrong with that at all.

Chad Green

Midseason Grade: B

Two things are true this season. One, Green has been very good overall. Two, Green has not been as good as last season. Two blowups in two appearances prior to the All-Star break left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth, though, prior to those last two appearances, Green had a 1.91 ERA (2.39 FIP) in 42.1 innings. He was fantastic and he probably deserved to go to the All-Star Game.

Here is 2017 Chad Green vs. 2018 Chad Green:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/9	Fastball Whiff%
2017	69	1.83	1.75	40.7%	6.7%	0.52	37.9%
2018	46	2.74	3.01	31.5%	5.0%	1.17	27.7%

Good numbers overall but also some discouraging trends. Green’s strikeouts are down, he’s not getting as many swings and misses with his trademark fastball, and his home run rate is up. He’s allowed six homers in 46 innings this season after allowing four homers in 69 innings last year, so yeah. That includes two back-breaking homers in his last two appearances of the first half.

I think Green’s step back this season — and by step back, I mean going from elite to merely above-average — has more to do with it being incredibly hard to succeed as a fastball only guy. Green’s slider kinda stinks but his fastball is great in terms of velocity and spin rate. But unless you have Chapman’s velocity, it’s hard to throw fastballs by hitters long-term. Green did it most of the season. Things kinda got away from him those last two outings.

Aside from Chapman, pretty much every reliever in the bullpen has been written off at some point this season. People were ready to move on from Betances, from David Robertson, from Jonathan Holder, so on and so forth. It seems it is now Green’s turn. Fortunately, the Yankees call the shots, not fans, and they’ll stick with Green and work to get him right. And, chances are, he’ll get right soon enough. No, Green has not been as good as last year. But he’s still been very good overall, and I see those last two outings as more of a bump in the road than anything.

Jonathan Holder

Midseason Grade: A

Another reliever who gets an A. Fourth in five reviews so far. Holder was in the Opening Day bullpen as basically the last guy on the roster, though he quickly earned a demotion to Triple-A after allowing seven runs and eight baserunners in his first 2.2 innings of the season. That includes taking the loss in a frustrating 14-inning game against the Orioles on April 6th.

Holder went to Triple-A, resurfaced in late April after Adam Warren went down with a lat issue, and since then he’s been out of this world good. He’s thrown 36.1 innings with a 0.50 ERA (1.99 FIP) since returning, with a good strikeout rate (22.4%) and an excellent walk rate (3.7%). It felt like he “arrived” on June 18th, when he inherited runners on the corners with no outs and a one-run lead against the Nationals, and didn’t allow a run to score.

Holder’s newfound success comes after a change in his pitch mix. He went to Triple-A, scrapped his high-spin curveball, and came back as a fastball/slider/changeup pitcher. He’s always had the slider and changeup, but they took a backseat to the curveball. Now the curveball is taking a backseat to the slider, which he uses against righties, and the changeup, which he uses against lefties.

Goodbye curveball (and cutter), hello slider and changeup. That adjustment has helped Holder make the jump from up-and-down depth arm to reliable middle reliever. In fact, on most other teams, I reckon Holder would be pitching in a traditional setup role by now. But because the Yankees are so deep in quality relievers, Boone is able to use Holder in the middle innings, when the starter bows out early and it’s a little too early to go to Betances and Green. Holder has been invaluable in that role.

Tommy Kahnle

Midseason Grade: F

Tough, but fair. Expectations were high for Kahnle coming into the season because he was so good last year and so effective in the postseason. Instead, Kahnle has been injured and ineffective this year. He’s allowed eleven runs and 16 baserunners in nine big league innings around a biceps/shoulder injury, and, worst of all, he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Ten apiece. Ouch.

The Yankees sent Kahnle to Triple-A in early June — he essentially lost his middle innings job to Holder — and, with Triple-A Scranton, he owns a 2.81 ERA (2.32 FIP) with 37.6% strikeouts and 10.6% walks in 16 innings. That’s good. Certainly better than what he did in his limited big league time this year. So it’s not like Kahnle has suddenly forgotten how to pitch, you know?

The big issue this year is fastball velocity. Kahnle’s heater averaged 98.1 mph last year and 97.0 mph the year before. This season it was down to 95.6 mph. The fastest pitch he threw with the Yankees this year checked in at 97.6 mph. That’s still below last year’s average fastball velocity. Minor league velocity reports can be unreliable, though they have Kahnle sitting 95-96 mph with the RailRiders.

On one hand, 95-96 mph is plenty good enough to get outs at the big league level. Holder’s fastball is averaging only 93.2 mph this season, for example. On the other hand, Kahnle is not exactly blessed with great command. He’s a pure grip it and rip it pitcher, and hey, that works too. Worked great for him last year. But Kahnle at 95-96 mph is a different animal than Kahnle at 98-99 mph. Especially since the velocity on his changeup is unchanged. The velocity gap between the two pitches is smaller and that makes both of them less effective.

Kahnle has been down in the minors long enough to delay his free agency, which I guess is good for the Yankees. I suspect they’d happily trade that extra year of control for a healthy and effective Kahnle at the big league level though. He was part of that big trade last season with the idea that he’d be a long-term bullpen piece. Instead, Kahnle has been a non-factor this season, and it’s unclear whether he’ll regain last year’s effectiveness at some point.

David Robertson

Midseason Grade: B+

Ho hum, another typically strong David Robertson season. He’s basically the CC Sabathia of the bullpen at this point. Still very effective, still lots of folks seemingly ready to call him done any time he stumbles. Robertson had a rough patch in May but has otherwise been very good this season, pitching to a 3.09 ERA (2.47 FIP) with strikeout (30.5%) and walk (8.1%) rates right in line with his career norms. He is the same guy he’s always been.

Betances’ reemergence and Green’s overall effectiveness has allowed Boone to use Robertson in all sorts of situations. He’s brought him into the middle of an inning to escape a jam, used him as a seventh and eighth inning guy, and Robertson has even gone 2-for-2 in save chances on days Chapman was unavailable. Robertson has made 43 appearances this season. Here’s when he’s entered the game:

Sixth Inning: 4 times
Seventh Inning: 13 times
Eighth Inning: 17 times
Ninth Inning: 5 times
Extra Innings: 4 times

That is a man who is not married to a specific inning. Robertson was out of this world good after rejoining the Yankees last season — he allowed four runs in 35 innings after the trade — and he was great in the postseason. He hasn’t been quite that good this year, but he’s been very good overall. As good as he is, I still get the feeling Robertson is underappreciated. He’s a hell of a reliever.

Chasen Shreve

Midseason Grade: D

I suppose you could argue Shreve is meeting expectations. He owns a 4.54 ERA (5.22 FIP) with 28.8% strikeouts and 11.1% walks in 33.2 innings this season. From 2016-17, he pitched to a 4.37 ERA (5.06 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 11.2% walks in 78.1 innings. Shreve is the same guy right now that he’s been the last two years. Unfortunately, that makes him a replacement level reliever.

As the very last guy in the bullpen — and that’s what I think he is at this point, I think Cole has jumped him in the pecking order — Shreve is okay. He’s someone who takes a beating in blowout games, basically. The problem isn’t Shreve, really. It’s that Boone keeps using him in somewhat leveraged left-on-left matchup situations even though Shreve isn’t good against lefties. They’re hitting .239/.364/.556 (.386 wOBA) against him this year. Yuck.

The Yankees clearly like Shreve. He wouldn’t have stuck on the roster this long otherwise. And I get it. He’s a just turned 28-year-old southpaw with a history of missing bats. Guys like that are hard to find. If another team had Shreve and they designated him for assignment, I’d look at him as a potential reclamation project pickup. If Boone stops using Shreve as a left-on-left guy and starts using him as a mop-up man, he’ll be fine. It’d be fine. Just fine.

Adam Warren

Midseason Grade: B

Once again, Warren has been a boringly reliable Swiss Army Knife reliever this season. He did miss more than six weeks with a lat strain, which drags down his midseason grade, otherwise the guy has thrown 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA (2.94 FIP) and very good strikeout (28.4%) and walk (8.8%) rates. And he is what, the sixth best reliever in the bullpen? Yeah, that’ll play.

I get the sense Warren will take on increased responsibility in the second half. The injury threw a wrench into things in the first half and it seems Boone is still trying to figure out when exactly to use him. In the second half though, I think Warren will be used for more multi-inning stints in the middle of the game as the Yankees look to control Luis Severino’s workload and also try to shorten games by not letting their starter go through the lineup a third time.

Either way, Warren has again been a reliable bullpen arm who flies under the radar because the Yankees have so many good relievers. Missing all that time with the lat injury stinks, but you know what? It gave Holder an opportunity to emerge, and the Yankees are a better team now because of it. In that sense, Warren’s injury turned out to be a good thing. Now he’s healthy and again an effective do it all bullpen option.

Guest Post: The Re-Marginalization of Adam Warren

June 28, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

The following is a guest post from Andrew Calagna, who goes by The Original Drew in the comments. You can follow him on Twitter at @_swarlesbarkley. He previous wrote a guest post about the 2016 trade deadline.

Adam Warren is having a typical season by his standards. He is pitching to a 1.56 ERA (3.10 FIP) with 27.0% strikeout rate in only 17.1 innings due to missing 39 games to a back injury suffered in late April. Aside from an elevated walk rate (12.2%), what has stood out about Warren this year are the game situations he has pitched in.

In 16 appearances this season, Warren has only pitched in a total of 4 games which would be considered a high leverage situation. Of those 4 games, only 1 has been since coming off the DL on June 4th. Looking at Baseball Reference’s Average Leverage Index (aLI) [where anything above a 1.0 is considered a high leverage situation] his last 5 appearances are as follows:

June 15th: Pitched 9th Inning – Yankees up 5-0 (aLI 0.08)
Jun 17th: Pitched 8th Inning – Yankees down 3-1 (aLI 0.32)
June 22nd: Pitched 6th Inning – Yankees down 2-0 (aLI 1.06)
June 24th: Pitched 4th-5th Innings – Yankees down 6-3 (aLI 0.78)
June 26th: Pitched 8th Inning – Yankees up 6-0 (aLI 0.08)

A whole lot of meaningless innings there. For the 2018 season, Warren has an aLI of 0.63 and since coming off the DL (Including the conclusion of the May 15th suspended game vs Washington) he has an aLI of 0.49.

You can also look at FanGraphs and see the following:

A total of 3.2 medium/high leverage innings is a waste considering the caliber of pitcher that Warren is. Warren is being used as the last man out of the bullpen despite the results.

There are a few reasons why this is happening.

1. The Yankees have a ton of great relievers (duh). On his best day, Warren is probably considered to be the 5th best reliever in the bullpen. There are only so many high leverage innings to go around and his extended absence has lead Aaron Boone to give to opportunity to others such as Jonathan Holder (aLI 0.95).

That being said, Chapman, Betances, and Robertson, are all on pace to appear in 70+ games each, along with Chad Green on pace to appear in 63 games (career high of 40 at the MLB level) this season. Adding another reliever into the mix to take the load off of the other high leverage relievers is a must. Tommy Kahnle is another option, but as long as he continues to be pitching with diminished velocity he might be better off pitching in lower leverage spots whenever he does make his comeback to the big league roster.

2. Warren’s versatility and other injuries to the pitching staff. Warren’s history of being stretched out as a starter has given the Yankees in the past and present the ability to use him as a Swiss Army Knife reliever. He can go multiple innings, and has proven that he is comfortable pitching at any time. This is a great weapon to have when a starter does a 5 and fly, or gets knocked out early.

That being said, there are other pitchers that the Yankees currently have that can fill in that role. Luis Cessa and A.J. Cole are two names that come to mind. Given the slew of injuries to Yankees pitching staff this season, the Yankees are currently using Warren in this role out of necessity. This won’t and shouldn’t be the case going forward as guys get healthy.

* * *

This all comes with the caveat that we are talking about an extremely small sample size of 17.1 IP, so there is still plenty of time to get Warren back into Boone’s Circle of Trust™. This isn’t the first time that Warren has been marginalized in his Yankee career, and he has proven time and time again that he has the talent to be put in those high leverage situations and be successful. He just needs to be given the opportunity.

As the trading deadline approaches, many (including RAB) have suggested that the Yankees should go after another high end reliever, and while there is never such a thing as too much pitching, the reliever the Yankees could be seeking is already on the roster.

Games 55 & 56: Let’s Win Two

June 4, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Wanna hear something crazy? The Yankees will actually play some baseball today. Pretty amazing, isn’t it? Thanks to scheduled off-days and all the recent rainouts, the Yankees have played 14.5 games in the last 21 days. They have a doubleheader today, a doubleheader two weeks from today, and another doubleheader three weeks after that. And of course they had plane trouble getting out of Baltimore yesterday. Sucks.

Anyway, the Yankees are in Detroit today for a pair of makeup games against the Tigers. These are the makeup games for their April 14th and 15th rainouts. The Yankees technically lead this three-game series one game to none. They won the series opener on April 13th. Aaron Hicks had inside-the-park and outside-the-park homers in that game, which I’m sure you remember.

The Tigers are early in their rebuild but they have not been a total pushover this season. They’re in second place in the admittedly terrible AL Central at 28-31 with a -15 run differential. All things considered, that’s an impressive run differential. This is a team that went 13-41 in their final 54 games last year and added no one of substance over the winter. They’re bad. Just not as bad as expected. Here are the lineups for first game of the doubleheader:

New York Yankees
1. CF Aaron Hicks
2. DH Aaron Judge
3. 1B Greg Bird
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. LF Clint Frazier
8. C Austin Romine
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

RHP Luis Severino

Detroit Tigers
1. CF Leonys Martin
2. RF Nick Castellanos
3. DH Miguel Cabrera
4. 3B Jeimer Candelario
5. 1B Niko Goodrum
6. C John Hicks
7. LF JaCoby Jones
8. SS Jose Iglesias
9. 2B Dixon Machado

RHP Drew VerHagen

Thankfully, the weather will not be an issue today. The sun’s out in Detroit and it’s nice and warm, but not hot. Good doubleheader weather. The first game of today’s split doubleheader will begin at 1:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network out-of-market. Enjoy the game.

Roster Move: Welcome back, Clint Frazier. He is the 26th man for today’s doubleheader, as expected. Unless someone gets hurt, which hopefully won’t happen, Frazier has to go right back to Triple-A after the doubleheader today.

Injury Update: Adam Warren (lat) threw a bullpen session Friday and could be activated today. It might be one of those “use a reliever in the first game, then send him down and activate Warren for the second game” situations. We’ll see. It sounds like Warren is ready is return though. It’s just a question of when they’ll activate him.

Update (6:45pm ET): In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees won the first game of the doubleheader 7-4. Here are the lineups for the second game:

New York Yankees
1. CF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. C Gary Sanchez
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Gleyber Torres
6. 3B Miguel Andujar
7. 2B Neil Walker
8. 1B Tyler Austin
9. LF Clint Frazier

RHP Domingo German

Detroit Tigers
1. 3B Jeimer Candelario
2. RF Nick Castellanos
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. SS Niko Goodrum
6. CF Leonys Martin
7. C James McCann
8. 2B Ronny Rodriguez
9. LF Victor Reyes

RHP Mike Fiers

Good weather again for the nightcap. This game is scheduled to begin at 7:10pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the game.

Roster Move: Between games the Yankees activated Adam Warren off the disabled list and optioned Tommy Kahnle to Triple-A Scranton, the team announced. Didn’t see that coming. The Kahnle part, anyway. Jonathan Holder and A.J. Cole pitching well pushed Kahnle out. That and his struggles.

Game 53: Rainy Baltimore

May 31, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

For the first time in 2018, the Yankees are in Baltimore. We’re just about a third of the way through the season and this is the first time the Yankees are visiting one of their division rivals. Crazy. They haven’t gone to Tampa Bay yet either. They won’t do that for another few weeks.

Anyway, the Yankees are in Baltimore and of course there’s rain in the forecast. They can’t escape the bad weather this year. The forecast calls for showers from 7pm ET until 11pm ET, so basically game time. Know how they say there’s a window to get the game in? Today’s forecast is the opposite of that. It’ll rain exactly when the game would normally be played. Go figure. Here are the lineups:

New York Yankees
1. LF Brett Gardner
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Greg Bird
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. SS Didi Gregorius
6. CF Aaron Hicks
7. 3B Neil Walker
8. C Austin Romine
9. 2B Gleyber Torres

RHP Sonny Gray

Baltimore Orioles
1. 3B Jace Peterson
2. CF Adam Jones
3. SS Manny Machado
4. DH Mark Trumbo
5. 2B Jonathan Schoop
6. 1B Chris Davis
7. LF Trey Mancini
8. C Chance Sisco
9. RF Joey Rickard

RHP Andrew Cashner

Like I said, there’s rain in the forecast tonight. Hopefully they can get the game in in a timely fashion. Not really in the mood to wait out a long delay. Tonight’s game is scheduled to begin at 7:05pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the ~~rain delay~~ game.

Injury Updates: Miguel Andujar is fine after that collision with Yuli Gurriel yesterday. Just a day off for him … Adam Warren (lat) has joined the Yankees in Baltimore but won’t be activated for a few days. He threw three innings in a rehab game last night and won’t be available for a bit anyway … Jacoby Ellsbury (oblique, hip, foot, back) should start baseball activities soon. We’ll see.

Update (6:46pm ET): The game will indeed start in a delay, it has been announced. No word on a start time yet, but, looking at the radar, it could be a while.