Chris Carpenter Archives - River Avenue Blues

Mailbag: Nunez, Arneson, Cards, Venditte, IFAs

August 19, 2011 by Mike 49 Comments

Five questions this week, and four are farm system-related in one way or another. You can use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar whenever you want to send in a question.

Eduardo Nunez — (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

Matt asks: Would you agree that an off-season strategy could be to include E. Nunez in a package for something the Yankees want, while giving his role for 2012 to Corban Joseph?

I would not agree with that, mainly because Joseph can’t play shortstop. I assume he played it in high school, but he’s been a second baseman almost exclusively as a pro. I’m willing to bet that CoJo could fake short in an emergency, but Derek Jeter’s getting up there in age, and the Yankees need someone capable of playing there for an extended period of time without embarrassing themselves. Nunez can do that, Ramiro Pena can maybe do that, but I’m not sure Joseph can. I think if anything, he could step into Eric Chavez’s shoes as the lefty bat/corner infielder, but I can understand wanting a veteran in that role.

The CoJo situation will be interesting to watch, because I’m not really sure where he fits in. He’s obviously not going to unseat Robinson Cano at second, so maybe it’s best to turn into some kind of utility guy that can play first, second, third, and maybe left. Of course, they could always use him as trade bait. I would have no trouble trading Nunez in the right package, but I wouldn’t count on Joseph replacing him, at least not in 2012.

Jeff asks: Hey Mike, I read that Zachary Arneson signed for a 20k bonus. Any idea why it was so low compared to other picks before and after his round? Cheers.

Arneson, this year’s ninth rounder, was a college senior out of Lewis-Clark State, and college seniors don’t have much leverage at all. Their options are either sign or go back to school as a fifth year senior and come out next year with even less leverage. Very rarely do they improve their stock. Seniors definitely get the shaft in the draft game, but that’s life. Some other notable college seniors the Yankees have drafted in recent years: Adam Warren ($195k), Tim Norton ($85k), Kyle Roller ($45k), Sam Elam ($40k), T.J. Beam ($20k), and Chris Malec ($1k). Yep, Malec got a grand, that’s it.

Update: One thing I forgot to mention … the signing deadline does not apply to college seniors. They are free to sign at any point before the next year’s draft.

Sean asks: With St. Louis about to (presumably) tie up a lot of money in Pujols, do you think there is a chance to snag a piece of their rotation in the off-season? Assuming they do not exercise their options for Wainwright or Carpenter, can you see the Yankees pursuing either of them or Edwin Jackson? And if so, what kind of contract would Wainwright be looking for?

Despite the Tommy John surgery, I can’t see why the Cardinals would decline Adam Wainwright’s options after the season. The team has to pick up both at the same time, and they’ll pay him $9M next season and $12M the season after. Even if he comes back and is two-thirds of what he was before (so 4+ WAR instead of 6+ WAR), that’s a bargain. They’d be foolish not to pick them up, but if they didn’t for whatever reason, I’d want the Yankees to be all over him. Wainwright’s a legit ace when healthy, with a fastball-curveball combo that will play anywhere, NL Central or AL East. There’s no real precedent for an ace-caliber pitcher hitting the open market after missing the year due to injury, so I have no idea what kind of contract would be appropriate. Maybe one-year, $10M plus incentives and a huge option for 2012 ($18M?) to let him rebuild his value than cash in shortly thereafter? I have no idea, just spitballin’.

Chris Carpenter is a much different story. We’ve written about him a number of times here, and his option is for $15M next year. That’s pricey for a 36-year-old who’s still very good (3.10 FIP), but maybe not truly elite anymore. He’d be an ideal stopgap number two type for the Yankees, allowing them to avoid the C.J. Wilsons of the world before going nuts on the 2012 free agent class (Matt Cain, John Danks, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, all of them and more will be free agents after next season). Edwin Jackson … meh. I loved him as a rental for this year, but signing him to a multi-year deal as a free agent? I’d rather pass on that.

JCK asks: Pat Venditte has been great since mid-June in Trenton. Everyone says his stuff doesn’t play to major league hitters, but he’s adjusted to every level so far. Do you think the Yankees protect him this winter?

Venditte’s eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter, and no, I don’t think the Yankees will protect him. David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell, and George Kontos are all going to have to be added to the 40-man roster after the season, and there’s only so much room for pitchers on that thing. Venditte’s done a great job in the minors, but he doesn’t really have an out pitch from either side and it shows in his strikeout rate this year (8.74 K/9 this year vs. 11+ in previous years). He’s a great org arm, but there wouldn’t be much attention paid to Venditte if he only threw with one arm. I’m pretty sure some team will grab him in the Rule 5 just to give him a look in Spring Training, the novelty is too tempting, but I can’t imagine him sticking in the big leagues for all of 2012. I have to think he’d be offered back at some point.

Alex asks: How involved have the Yankees been in IFA this year? What have been their major signings? It seems as though they’ve been more quiet on this front than in years past.

The Yankees have only signed one player so far (that we know of), Dominican third baseman Miguel Andujar for $750k. The top guys (Victor Sanchez, Elier Hernandez, and Ronald Guzman) have all signed somewhere, but there is still plenty of talent out there for taking, namely Roberto Osuna, who the Yankees have their eyes on. The entire international market seems to have slowed down recently because MLB has really stepped up their age and identity verification process, but remember that the signing period never ends. There’s no deadline, but a new crop of players is added every July 2nd. In fact, the Yankees’ two biggest signings last year – Rafael DePaula and Juan Carlos Paniagua – didn’t agree to terms until December and March, respectively. You can question their drafting strategies, but there’s no way to question the work the Yankees do in Latin America. They consistently produce quality players and prospects year after year, and I see no reason to believe this year will be any different.

When an NL injury impacts the Yankees

February 24, 2011 by Mike 46 Comments

It appears that for the second season in a row, baseball is losing one of its star pitchers to Tommy John surgery. Last year it was Twins closer Joe Nathan blowing out his elbow in his first Grapefruit League outing, and this year it looks like Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright will have to go under the knife. Nothing’s official yet, but the right-hander flew back to St. Louis yesterday to have the joint examined, and team bigwigs don’t sound optimistic.

“After his bullpen on Monday, he did feel something in his right elbow,” said GM John Mozeliak. “I can say just based on the initial evaluation from our training staff, things do not look encouraging. But before we jump to any conclusions, we’ll just wait until the re-evaluation [Wednesday] afternoon.”

“It’s not a good day,” said manager Tony LaRussa. “It’s a huge hit. You’re talking about one of those quality guys. We have to overcome this.”

Wainwright, just 29 years old, is one of the best pitchers on the planet, posting a 2.99 FIP in 463.1 IP over the last two years, twice finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young voting. The Cardinals already suffered one big hit this month when they were unable to reach an agreement with Albert Pujols on a long-term deal, but losing their best starter will have a ripple down effect, one that could impact the Yankees.

As you probably know, we’ve speculated quite a bit about Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals’ other ace, being a potential trade target for New York this season. The logic is that the Cardinals may need to free up some cash to sign Pujols, and shedding a soon-to-be 36-year-old starter making $15M a year is a fine way of doing that. Obviously, the Wainwright injury can and almost certainly will change their plans for 2011 and Carpenter, one way or another.

The quick, knee-jerk reaction I’ve seen is that the Cards should sell, that losing Wainwright essentially dooms their season. I disagree about the last part, but the point I want to make is that selling isn’t as easy as you think. For one, is Pujols really going to want to re-sign with St. Louis long-term if he knows the next year or two or three will be spent rebuilding? Every move the Cardinals make from now through the end of the year has to be focused on keeping Albert around. Can a team with a nine-figure commitment to Matt Holliday with Colby Rasmus and Jaime Garcia and Yadier Molina in their prime years really convince itself that selling is the best course of action? The NL Central is very winnable, so it’s not like they need a miracle to contend.

Now if the Cardinals decide to keep Carpenter and make a run in 2011 without Waino, that will affect the Yankees’ pursuit of pitching. For one, Carp won’t be available, so that right there takes away a prime target. Secondly, there also a chance that St. Louis will look to bolster its rotation at midseason, meaning there would be that much more competition for starting pitching on the trade market.

On the other side of the coin, maybe the Cardinals do decide to sell. Maybe they’ve gotten the indication that Pujols is signable and they need that little extra cash, or they believe he’s leaving after the season and they want to move Carpenter while his value is high. I think it’s unlikely, but we probably shouldn’t rule it out. Carpenter and his salary would certainly fit nicely on the Yankees, and they absolutely have the players to give up in exchange. I suspect Wainwright’s injury will make it more difficult for the Yanks to acquire a pitcher as I outlined above, but there’s always a chance it will make it a bit easier.

Losing Wainwright for the season obviously sucks not just for the Cardinals, but baseball in general. He’s a star player and he helps sells jerseys and fill the seats, and it’s good for the game when a historic franchise like St. Louis is in contention. It’s also possible that his injury will help the Yankees, and it’s also good for baseball when the Yankees are a great team. I don’t think it’ll happen, I think it’s much more likely that St. Louis will now hold onto Carpenter with a death grip, but hey, you never know.

The mystery pitcher: Chris Carpenter

December 2, 2010 by Joe Pawlikowski 91 Comments

You might have missed it on the podcast last week, but Mike finally got me to reveal this mystery pitcher he’d mentioned in a chat a while back. Yes, if the Yankees miss out on Cliff Lee and turn to the trade market for another starter, I think they should target St. Louis’s Chris Carpenter. He’s not a perfect option, but the Yankees aren’t going to find one of those — not even Lee himself is a perfect option. In Carpenter they will find a number of benefits.

1. He’s a free agent after next season

There is a small but smart faction of Yankees fans who don’t want Lee at all, because of the effect he’ll have on mid-decade teams. At $23 million per year, he’ll drive the Yankees commitments up to around $96 million to four players in 2014. How they plan to field the other 21 I’m not sure. That’s the point of the anti-Lee movement, I suppose: sustainability in the future. Carpenter would bring no such problem. The Yankees can let him walk after the 2011 season and start over again. At that point their prospects will be one step closer to the majors — the ones they don’t trade for Carpenter, in any case. It might lead to a better outlook for 2012.

2. He could be a burden on St. Louis’s payroll

There’s good reason the Cardinals missed the postseason in 2010. They were lacking at several positions. The only upgrade they’ve come up with is Ryan Theriot, and he’s not a great bet to outperform Brendan Ryan next year. That still leaves a hole at third — David Freese is hardly proven — and second — Skip Schumaker might not have as putrid a year with the bat, but the dude simply cannot field his position at second. The Cardinals also have the Pujols negotiation, and indications are that they want to hammer out a deal this winter. He’ll get a significant raise over his $16 million 2011 salary.

That’s not to say that the Cardinals can’t afford Carpenter. It’s just that he’d be one of their better trade chips. With the need to improve not only in 2011, but for the subsequent decade that Pujols is under contract, they might need upgrades elsewhere. They won’t get Jesus Montero, but they could find a few prospects of their liking from the Yankees’ farm system.

3. He’s, you know, a good pitcher

Carpenter might not be the same guy he was when he won the Cy Young Award in 2005, but he still has something left in the tank. He induces plenty of ground balls and he doesn’t walk many guys. His strikeout rate isn’t killer, but it’s not in the mold of some other ground ball pitchers (a la Nick Blackburn). He also threw over 200 innings last year, another plus in his column.

There are downsides, of course. There are in any potential trade. With Carpenter they are considerable:

He’s not the healthiest guy. While he made 28 starts in 2009 and 35 starts in 2010, he missed most of the previous two seasons.
He hasn’t pitched in the AL since 2002, and he wasn’t that good when with the Blue Jays. Note, though, that he’s a completely different pitcher at this point.
The Cardinals could end up asking for a lot, since he will help them in 2011.
If he does become available, a number of other teams will be in on him.

It’s not a perfect fit, but looking around the league there aren’t many others who would work much better. It’s tough to find a guy who can pitch in the middle or top of your rotation who are available in a trade.

I won’t make a trade proposal, since it will inevitably suck. But I do think that the Yankees have the pieces to entice the Cardinals if it comes to that. I hope it doesn’t — it doesn’t sound like that attractive a proposition, and I don’t see many other viable options. This is why there is such a vocal and vehement pro-Lee clan. Without him, the 2011 rotation looks shaky at best.