River Avenue Blues

Mailbag: Harper, Machado, Dellin, Severino, Postseason Roster

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There are nine questions in this week’s mailbag. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is where you should send all your questions each week.

Harper & Manny. (Rob Carr/Getty)

Joe asks: Including whether Andujar or Harper could play 1B, what is a better fit Machado at third or Harper at first?

Manny Machado at third base. Putting Bryce Harper at first base is a complete waste of his athleticism and throwing arm. I’d make Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton play first base before Harper and I’m not in any rush to move Judge or Stanton out of the outfield. Machado is a truly elite defensive third baseman and an elite hitter. Harper is an elite hitter who can maybe be average at first base in his first year playing the position? I boils down to this:

  • Option One: Elite hitter and elite defender at third (Machado) plus an above-average hitter and probably bad defender at first (Miguel Andujar).
  • Option Two: Elite hitter and maybe average defender at first (Harper) plus above-average hitter and bad defender at third (Andujar).

In a vacuum, I would take Harper’s next five years over Machado’s next five years. Within the context of the Yankees and their roster, I would take Machado. They’d have to move Harper to an entirely new position right smack in the prime of his career. Moving from the outfield to first base is an old player move, or something you do with a guy who’s just terrible defensively, which Harper is not. Give me Machado at third and Andujar at first over Harper at first and Andujar at third eight days a week and twice on Sundays. Or the Yankees could just sign Machado and Harper and figure out the rest later.

Brian asks: What are your thoughts on an extension for Dellin this offseason? Seems like reasonable risk mitigation for both sides. If Dellin replicates this season next year he’d be paid as an elite reliever which the Yankees would like to avoid, and from his perspective, he’s not far removed from being completely unable to throw a strike + is already 30, so a solid guaranteed amount of money probably makes sense. Thoughts?

Can’t see it and I wouldn’t advise it either. I love Dellin Betances. He’s a personal favorite. But he has been very up and down in his career — they are extreme ups and downs too — so I think you play out next season, his final year of arbitration eligibility, then see where he’s at. If Betances goes to the Yankees this winter and is willing to take a sweetheart deal, something like the three years and $27M both Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw received last winter, great. That’s something the Yankees should consider. If he’s looking for Wade Davis (three years, $52M) or Aroldis Chapman (five years, $82.5M) money, then hard pass. With a player as volatile as Betances, I think waiting out that final season of arbitration is the way to go.

Adam asks: How many Yankees have multi-hr games this year? I’m pretty sure Sanchez, Stanton, Voit, Austin, Hicks, Bird, Gregorius, and Torres have all done it — I might be missing someone. Are the Bombers nearing the record in this category?

Ten different players have had a multi-homer game for the Yankees this season and, weirdly, Aaron Judge is not one of them. The ten: Tyler Austin (twice), Greg Bird, Brett Gardner (twice), Didi Gregorius (four times), Aaron Hicks (twice), Gary Sanchez (thrice), Giancarlo Stanton (thrice), Gleyber Torres (twice), Luke Voit, and Neil Walker. The Yankees lead MLB with 21 multi-homer games by individual players. Only 12 other teams have had a player hit multiple homers in a game ten times this season, nevermind ten different players doing it. The Nationals, Dodgers, and Blue Jays have each had eight different players hit multiple homers in a game this season.

I don’t know how to look this up league-wide other than manually, which is far more work than I’m willing to do for a mailbag, but I did look up the number of different players with a multi-homer game for the Yankees in a single season. Turns out ten ties the franchise record, set in 2012. The 2012 ten: Robinson Cano (twice), Eric Chavez, Curtis Granderson (thrice), Raul Ibanez, Andruw Jones, Russell Martin, Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro Suzuki, Nick Swisher (twice), and Mark Teixeira (thrice). The Yankees have had nine players with a multi-homer game a bunch of times over the years. My guess is some other team in baseball history has had ten players with a multi-homer game. Maybe one of those mid-to-late 1990s/early-2000s Indians or Mariners teams?

Gleyber. (Elsa/Getty)

Steve asks: Hot damn. Torres can play some short huh? I know having Didi out of the lineup is no fun, but Torres can pick it. They clearly have two everyday young MLB shortstops in Didi and Torres. Here’s my question: which scenario are the Yankees best to go with: trade Didi and shift Torres to short. Trade Torres for a needed upgrade and sign/promote a second baseman. Or keep them both, and have a hell of a young SS, 2b, and 3b???

If you’re doing to trade one, trade Didi before Gleyber, clearly. Gregorius is a year away from free agency and he’s several years older, and I think you could argue Torres is the better hitter right now. Let’s just say, hypothetically, the Yankees decide to trade Gregorius over the winter and shift Gleyber to short. The best free agent second base options this winter will be Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu, and Jed Lowrie. And maybe Daniel Murphy if you’re willing to live with terrible defense. I guess it ultimately depends what you get in a trade for Gregorius? One year of Didi for one year of Miles Mikolas, maybe? Then sign Lowrie? My hunch is Gregorius at short and Gleyber at second with a free agent pitcher is the best way to go.

Matt asks: I haven’t looked at who caught what games, but at what point do we start to notice that with Gary Sanchez around in the first half, Luis Severino was amazing. With Gary Sanchez on the DL almost the entire second half, Luis Severino has been a mess. When does that get explored?

Severino has been considerably better with Sanchez (2.67 ERA and 2.57 FIP) behind the plate than he has with Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka (3.62 ERA and 3.20 FIP), and, in fact, the pitching staff as a whole has been better with Gary behind the plate this year.

  • with Sanchez: 3.50 ERA (3.48 ERA), 27.4 K%, 8.2 BB%
  • with Not Sanchez: 3.80 ERA (3.59 FIP), 26.1 K%, 8.2 BB%

I have joked about Severino needing Sanchez on Twitter and whatnot, but I don’t honestly believe Severino’s slider suddenly went to crap because he had Romine and Higashioka behind the plate rather than Sanchez. Perhaps Gary would be better able to help Severino through his struggles and get him to right the ship, but I don’t think losing Sanchez has directly led to Severino’s issues. There seems to be something larger at play here. Whatever it is, it sure would be swell if it all went away once Sanchez returns. Would be kinda funny given the narratives about Gary.

Stan asks: Was checking in on the prospects traded in the past year+. Wondering if Yankees regret trading Taylor Widener? He’s continued to improve and may stick as a starter.

I don’t think they regret it. They’ve got a bunch of Widener types in the system as it is with Mike King, Garrett Whitlock, Trevor Stephan, Nick Green, Erik Swanson, and Nick Nelson. They’re all cut from the same cloth. Widener has had a fantastic season in Double-A this year (2.68 ERA and 3.00 FIP) and I’m not sure why the Diamondbacks haven’t moved him up to Triple-A, but whatever.

In their midseason top ten D-Backs prospects list (subs. req’d), Baseball America says Widener’s “slider and change-up have the chance to be average pitches,” and he “has some effort in his delivery, leading some to wonder if his future might be in relief.” Same basic scouting report as last year. Still working to gain consistency with those secondary pitches. The Yankees seem to pull a pitching prospects like Widener out of thin air, that second tier guy with great results and okay secondary pitches. I’ll never have an issue with trading guys like this for MLB help.

Several asks: Is it possible the Yankees said Aaron Judge would return to game action in three weeks for trade leverage?

It’s possible, sure. Usually when teams downplay an injury in an effort to retain leverage, they’re a bit more vague. “We expect him back soon,” or something like that. Giving a hard three-week timetable suggest to me the Yankees truly believed Judge would be ready for game action and on his way back three weeks out from injury. If you say three weeks and it turns out wrong, you’ve kinda killed your leverage in trade talks going forward. You look desperate after a player misses his return date. Judge got hurt in late July. The three-week timetable would’ve given the Yankees leverage for the first half of August and then crushed it for the second half of August. I think the Yankees were just overly optimistic and underestimated how long it would take Judge to heal.

Sheffield. (Presswire)

Can asks: Can you explain the rules about players needing to be on the roster before September 1st to be postseason eligible? Does that refer to the active roster or the 40 man roster?

A player must be in the organization as of 11:59pm ET tonight to be postseason-eligible. He does not have to be on the 40-man roster. Just in the organization. From the MLB rules:

Players must be on the 40-man roster, the 60-day disabled list or the bereavement/family medical emergency list as of midnight ET on Aug. 31 to be eligible for their respective clubs’ postseason rosters. Consequently, players that are acquired via September trades or signed as free agents in September are ineligible for postseason play.

Clubs can petition the Commissioner’s Office to add any player that was not on the 40-man roster as of Aug. 31 — provided the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing a player who has spent at least 60 days on the 60-day disabled list.

The Royals added Brandon Finnegan to the 40-man roster on September 1st, 2014, and were able to carry him on the postseason roster as an injury replacement for Michael Mariot. The requirement here is that the player added to the 40-man must replace a player who has been on the 60-day DL at least 60 days. It can’t be a last minute injury replacement. From what I understand, a position player must replace a position player and a pitcher must replace a pitcher. Trying to mix and match is pretty much the only way MLB will reject the petition.

Because of this rule, the Yankees can call Justus Sheffield up at any point in September and still carry him on the postseason roster. They don’t have to add him to the 40-man roster today. It can wait. Same with Stephen Tarpley or Quintin Berry or any other non-40-man roster player they call up in September. Jordan Montgomery, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Ben Heller all satisfy the “on the 60-day DL at least 60 days” requirement, so that’s three potential postseason roster spots for players not on the 40-man roster by midnight tonight.

Nick asks: Does the Payroll calculation you do assume player incentives will be reached? At this point of the year it seems pretty clear some of those wont be hit. CC likely will not get to 165, that would put $1.5M back on the table for a waiver trade. Makes the idea of Donaldson or McCutchen seem more attainable. There are others too – Walker, DRob, and Lynn seem like the obvious ones that will leave some incentive bonuses on the table.

I do include incentives and bonuses in my luxury tax payroll estimation. That’s money that has to be earmarked. Imagine working so hard to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold only to have it blown up when someone reaches an innings based bonus or an ALCS MVP bonus? Ouch. Here are the team’s known playing time bonuses:

  • CC Sabathia: $500,000 each for 155, 165, 175, and 185 innings.
  • Neil Walker: $125,000 each for 425, 450, 475, and 500 plate appearances.
  • Lance Lynn: $1M each for 170 and 180 innings.

A few others have bonuses for awards finishes. Sabathia is at 131.1 innings and he has about six starts to go. The bonus for 155 innings is well within reach and he could reach the bonus for 165 innings too. That’s $1M against the luxury tax right there. Lynn is at 134 innings right now and that $1M bonus for 170 innings is possible, but unlikely, I think. Neil Walker went into last night’s game with 339 plate appearances, and if he continues to play every day in September, he should be able to reach 425 plate appearances. Maybe even 450.

Now that we’re getting late in the season, it’s easier to look at the bonuses and assume some of them won’t be met. Sabathia’s not going to reach 175 innings, which saves $1M. Lynn won’t reach 180 innings, which is another $1M. Walker is unlikely to get to 450 plate appearances, and that’s another $375,000. That might not like seem like much, but Walker not reaching those last three bonuses pays for two or three September call-ups. While some bonuses can’t be ignored — Stanton could win ALCS and World Series MVP and that’s $750,000 against the luxury tax — it does seem like the Yankees can stop worrying about a few of the playing time bonuses, and I’m sure they are well aware of that.

Tigers 8, Yankees 7: Grabbing defeat from the jaws of victory

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How does a team this good suck so much sometimes? Three losses in four days to two of the worst teams in baseball. At home! The Yankees allowed five home runs to the worst home run hitting team in baseball en route to an 8-7 loss to the Tigers on Thursday night. Garbage baseball night in the Bronx.

(Presswire)

Ninth Inning Meltdown
Might as well start at the end and work backwards. The Yankees took a two-run lead into the ninth inning, and with J.A. Happ bowing out early, Aaron Boone had to use three relievers before the ninth inning. Chad Green got five outs, David Robertson got three outs, and Zach Britton got three outs. Britton pitched the eighth presumably so Dellin Betances, who’s been awesome all year, could face the middle of the order in the ninth.

The plan did not go well. Betances walked Nick Castellanos one four pitches with one out, then Victor Martinez golfed a two-strike fastball into the short porch for a game-tying two-run home run. It hit the top of the wall and hopped over. Among the cheapest Yankee Stadium cheapies you’ll see. Live by the short porch, die the short porch. The game was tied, then Dellin hung a breaking ball to Nike Goodrum, who hooked it around the foul pole and into the right field second deck for a go-ahead two-run home run. Lead gone, tie game gone. How annoying.

The walk and the back-to-back home runs turned a 7-5 lead into an 8-7 deficit. First time in Dellin’s career that he allowed multiple home runs in an outing. Betances allowed three runs total in his previous 39 appearances and 38.2 innings. Then three runs in the span of three batters. The bullpen, which is supposed to be the backbone of the team, has now allowed at least one run in eight of the last nine games. Bad.

An Un-Happ-y Night
First clunker as a Yankee for Happ, who allowed three home runs to the team with the fewest homers in baseball, and gave up ten hits in 4.1 innings. Many of them were hard hit. He allowed 21 balls in play and seven were hit 90 mph or better. Five were 99 mph or better. Happ was behind in the count a lot and it seemed like the only thing he could throw for strike was his four-seamer. His pitch locations:

Not enough non-four-seamers around the zone to keep hitters honest. Happ threw a first pitch strike to 13 of 24 batters faced, or 54.2%, his eighth lowest rate this season. It was a grind. For sure. Happ gave up a leadoff homer to Jeimer Candelario on his fifth pitch of the night — it was the second time this season Candelario hit a leadoff homer against Happ — and also two-run shots to Ronny Rodriguez and Martinez. Yuck. Happ allowed four homers in his first five starts and 30.1 innings with the Yanks.

Happ’s final line: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 3 HR on 92 pitches. Bad. Bad bad bad. Happ has been so good with the Yankees and so good this year overall that I’m inclined to chalk this up as one of those nights. Even good pitchers have bad nights now and then. Happ had one Thursday. Hopefully he shakes it off and bounces back well next time out. My guess is he will.

Three Two-Run Home Runs
The Yankees and Tigers traded two-run home runs for a few innings there. Giancarlo Stanton swatted his 300th career home run in the bottom of the third, turning a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead. He’s the fifth fastest player to 300 homers by games played and the ninth fastest by age. Congrats, Giancarlo.

Rodriguez hit his two-run home run in the top of the fourth to give the Tigers a 3-2 lead. Then Gleyber Torres smacked a two-run home run in the bottom of the fourth to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. And then Martinez hit a two-run home run in the top of the fifth to give the Tigers a 5-4 lead. Four straight half-innings with a two-run homer. Martinez went into this game with six homers in 443 plate appearances. Now he has eight in 448 plate appearances.

The Yankees tied the game 5-5 in the fifth inning when Aaron Hicks scampered home from second base on Candelario’s throwing error. He fielded Miguel Andujar’s hard-hit grounder, fired across the diamond, and Goodrum couldn’t handle the throw in the dirt. Hicks went from second to third, and once he saw the ball get away from Goodrum, he broke for him and made it safely. Heads up baserunning by Hicksie.

In the seventh inning, the Yankees swatted their third two-run home run of the game and the fourth of what would prove to be six two-run home runs in the game overall. Luke Voit — Luke Voit! — did the honors. Stanton yanked a double to left field with one out, and Voit hammered Victor Alcantara’s middle-middle first pitch sinker into Monument Park to give the Yankees a 7-5 lead. Voit is 15-for-36 (.417) with four homers in his last 12 games now. I reckon more playing time is in his future.

More Mistakes
How many unforced errors can one team make? Let us count the ways. First, Neil Walker played Goodrum’s second inning ground ball a little casually and turned it into an infield single. Second, Brett Gardner was thrown out going first-to-third in the third. Replays showed he slowed down rounding second base before going for it. That happened with Stanton coming up. Yet another out on the bases in front of Stanton. Amazing how often they do that.

Third, Walker again played a Goodrum ground ball a little too casually and turned it into an infield single in the fourth. The first one didn’t lead to a run. This one did on Martinez’s two-run shot. Fourth, Green picked Goodrum off second base in the fifth inning, but, during the rundown, Andujar’s throw hit Goodrum in the back and everyone was safe. That didn’t lead to a run, but still. And fifth, Gleyber was throwing out trying to stretch a single into a double in the seventh. He was thrown out by this much:

I’m walking to chalk Gleyber’s baserunning mistake up to youthful exuberance. Walker turning two grounders into infield singles? Gardner getting thrown out at third with Stanton coming up? Andujar hitting Goodrum with a throw? Nope, nope, and nope. So many careless mistakes. Been going on all season too. You’d think the Yankees would’ve cleaned it up at least a little by now, but nope.

Leftovers
The Yankees did have 12 hits in the game. Everyone in the starting lineup had at least one except Kyle Higashioka and Shane Robinson, which is in no way surprising. Hicks (two singles), Stanton (homer, double, walk), Voit (single, homer), Torres (homer, two singles), and Walker (single, walk) all reached base multiple times. Three two-run homers and 2-for-6 with runners in scoring position, and it still wasn’t enough. Lordy.

And finally, the YES Network debuted a new score bug Thursday night. Kinda weird to do it in the middle of the season, but whatever. You can see it here. I’m not a fan of having the pitcher’s pitch count and hitter’s average in a second box. It’s a bit clunky. The font in the second box is small too. Maybe it’ll grow on me.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Go to ESPN for the box score and updated standings, MLB for the video highlights, and RAB for our Bullpen Workload page. Here’s the yucky loss probability graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
This four-game weekend series with the Tigers is just getting starting. The two clubs will be back at it Friday night. Luis Severino and Jordan Zimmermann are the scheduled starting pitchers.

DotF: Clint Frazier begins rehab assignment in Tampa’s win

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In case you missed it earlier, the Yankees are sending RHP Domingo Acevedo, IF Thairo Estrada, OF Estevan Florial, RHP Jordan Foley, RHP Hobie Harris, IF Steven Sensley, and RHP Matt Wivinis to the Arizona Fall League this year. They’ll be on the Glendale Desert Dogs with Dodgers, Indians, Orioles, and White Sox prospects. The 30-game AzFL season begins Tuesday, October 9th.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (3-2 win over Syracuse, walk-off style)

  • 2B-SS Tyler Wade: 1-3, 1 K, 1 E (fielding) — he was ejected in the sixth inning for arguing after being called out on a would-be infield single
  • C Gary Sanchez: 0-4, 2 K — he is expected to join the Yankees tomorrow and be activated Saturday … he went 3-for-19 (.158) with two homers in five rehab games
  • 3B-SS Gio Urshela: 2-4, 1 R, 1 3B — 13-for-35 (.371) in his last nine games
  • DH Mike Ford: 0-4
  • SS Abi Avelino: 0-0 — left the game in the second inning … he’s been dealing with a nagging shoulder problem, so I assume it has something to do with leaving early … manager Bobby Mitchell told Conor Foley that the team was told to remove Avelino from the game, so something is afoot
  • 1B Ryan McBroom: 2-3, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB — game-tying single in the ninth
  • LHP Ryan Bollinger: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 WP, 7/3 GB/FB — 44 of 69 pitches were strikes (64%) … up here starting with LHP Justus Sheffield and RHP Chance Adams now in the bullpen
  • LHP Justus Sheffield: 1 IP, zeroes, 2/1 GB/FB — 12 pitches, six strikes … first appearance since missing a few games with an illness
  • LHP Stephen Tarpley: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0/1 GB/FB — 12 of 20 pitches were strikes

[Read more…]

Game 134: Getting Closer To Full Strength

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(Adam Hunger/Getty)

Folks, there are only four home series and 13 home games remaining this season. Hard to believe, no? The Yankees begin a four-game home series with the rebuilding Tigers tonight. The Tigers have lost five straight games and they’re 7-18 with a -49 (!) run differential this month, so yeah, they’re bad. As expected. They’re early in their rebuild and on any given night there are maybe three league average players in their lineup.

Which of course means the Tigers are probably going to give the Yankees fits this weekend. The Yankees just lost two of three to the crummy White Sox and they’ve had issues with other bad teams like the Orioles and Rangers earlier this season. New York has the fifth best record in baseball against sub-.500 teams this year (51-24), but it sure doesn’t feel like it at times. Start the series with a win tonight, por favor. The lineups:

New York Yankees
1. CF Aaron Hicks
2. DH Giancarlo Stanton
3. 3B Miguel Andujar
4. 1B Luke Voit
5. SS Gleyber Torres
6. 2B Neil Walker
7. C Kyle Higashioka
8. RF Shane Robinson
9. LF Brett Gardner

LHP J.A. Happ

Detroit Tigers
1. 3B Jeimer Candelario
2. LF Mikie Mahtook
3. RF Nick Castellanos
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. 1B Niko Goodrum
6. SS Ronny Rodriguez
7. C James McCann
8. CF JaCoby Jones
9. 2B Dawel Lugo

LHP Francisco Liriano

More heat and more humidity in New York today. At least the real feel temperature was 95° or so rather than 105° like the last few days. Tonight’s game will begin at 7:05pm ET and YES will have the broadcast. Enjoy the ballgame.

Injury Updates: Gary Sanchez (groin) will catch nine innings with Triple-A Scranton tonight, and as long as all goes well, he will rejoin the Yankees on Saturday. Hooray for that … Didi Gregorius (heel) had a scheduled light workout day today. He’s getting better and is inching closer to a return … Aaron Judge (wrist) went through another workout in which he did basically everything except swing a bat … Clint Frazier (post-concussion migraines) started a minor league rehab assignment with High-A Tampa earlier today. He went 1-for-3. Not sure what Frazier’s timetable looks like, but the fact he’s now playing in minor league games is great news. That means he’s expected back and relatively soon.

8/30 to 9/2 Series Preview: Detroit Tigers

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If the Tigers have two good hitters, here they are. (Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Four more games remain in the Yankees’ penultimate homestand and it’s another of the AL Central’s rebuilding squads. Next up: the Detroit Tigers.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees made a brief stop in Detroit for a doubleheader on June 4, splitting the two games after losing the nightcap.

  • Luis Severino dominated the first game, allowing just two runs (one earned) over eight innings while striking out 10. He allowed just five baserunners.
  • Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird and Austin Romine all homered to knock out Drew VerHagen early in Game 1.
  • Domingo German couldn’t cut it in Game 2 and the Yankees’ bats came up short in a 4-2 loss. Giancarlo Stanton was hit by Mike Fiers, who has some history with the slugger, leading to this homer and reaction from Stanton.

For more information, check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post on that twin bill.

Injury Report

Miguel Cabrera is out for the year after left biceps surgery while backup John Hicks is also gone for the year. Shortstop Jose Iglesias underwent an MRI in New York on Thursday after suffering a lower abdominal strain and was placed on the 10-day disabled list.

On the pitching side, lefty Blaine Hardy is out with elbow tendinitis while Daniel Norris is on the mend from left groin surgery and could pitch in this series.

Their Story So Far

The Tigers stand at 53-80, tied with the White Sox for the third worst record in the American League and third place in the AL Central. Detroit has lost five straight games, all coming against the similarly putrid Royals and Southsiders. Their 19-46 road record is the worse only than the Orioles in all of baseball.

On the personnel side, a few starters have put up respectable numbers while their offense has been quite poor. The team dealt Mike Fiers and Leonys Martin (get well soon!) at the deadline.

Lineup We Might See

1. 3B Jeimer Candelario (.227/.315/.400, 94 wRC+)
2. 2B Niko Goodrum (.225/.298/.412, 90 wRC+)
3. RF Nicholas Castellanos (.290/.344/.487, 123 wRC+)
4. DH Victor Martinez (.248/.298/.337, 69 wRC+)
5. 1B Jim Adduci (.284/.316/.413, 96 wRC+)
6. LF Mikie Mahtook (.220/.292/.360, 75 wRC+)
7. C James McCann (.221/.269/.317, 57 wRC+)
8. CF JaCoby Jones (.203/.259/.363, 65 wRC+)
9. SS Ronny Rodriguez (.205/.248/.291, 43 wRC+)

I’m guessing Goodrum slides into Iglesias’ spot in the lineup and Rodriguez moves onto shortstop. The Tigers have just a three-man bench right now even after adding Dawel Lugo to the active roster in place of Iglesias. That will change Saturday with callups.

Matthew Boyd makes a lot of weird pitching faces. (Leon Halip/Getty)

The Starting Pitchers We Will See

Thursday (7:05 PM ET): LHP J.A. Happ vs. LHP Francisco Liriano
After a strong start to the season, Francisco Liriano has come back down to earth some, particularly in the late summer. Liriano has pitched to a 4.82 ERA overall, but the 34-year-old has a 5.32 ERA and 1.90 WHIP since the All-Star break, failing to get through six innings in any of his starts. His walks have risen and he’s seen a parade of hits. Ron Gardenhire gave Liriano a few extra days off before this start.

The left-hander has essentially eschewed his four-seamer entirely and uses his sinker 41 percent of the time. Outside of that, he’s still the same heavy-slider pitcher we know and love with 1/5 changeups to boot.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on Aug. 22) – 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR

Friday (7:05 PM ET): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann
The other veteran on the staff, Jordan Zimmermann has fared much better in 2018 than 2017. After he was tied for the MLB lead in earned runs allowed last year, he’s improved, sporting a respectable 4.38 ERA over 100 2/3 innings. The former National has seen a steep rise in his K rate while also cutting down on his walks, a nice recipe even if he allows 1.61 HR per nine.

Zimmermann throws 45.1 percent fastballs, averaging 91.2 mph with the heater while going to his slider a third of the time and mixing in some curveballs and occasional changeups. His slider has been his most effective pitch and he works it in the mid-80s.

Last Outing (vs. CHW on Aug. 26) – 6.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Saturday (4:05 PM ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. TBD
Right now, the Tigers have a four men in their rotation with the fourth, Michael Fulmer, starting Wednesday. Therefore, the Sept. 1 start has plenty of options, one of whom could be Daniel Norris. He made a rehab appearance in Toledo on Sunday, throwing 72 pitches over four innings. As mentioned above, Norris is rehabbing groin surgery he underwent earlier this year.

If not Norris, we could be in for a dreaded bullpen game. Considering the expanded rosters, that could mean a whole slew of young relievers. Oh boy.

Sunday (1:05 PM ET): RHP Lance Lynn vs. LHP Matthew Boyd
Matthew Boyd has been one of the Tigers’ most reliable starters this season after being hit hard in 2017. At 27 years old, he’s put together 147 innings with a 4.22 ERA and a 3.98 FIP. The good news for the Yankees is that he is much better at Comerica Park (2.56 ERA, 5 HR in 70 1/3 innings) than on the road (5.75 ERA, 12 HR in 76 2/3 innings). He hasn’t had a significant platoon split this season.

Featuring a similar repertoire to Zimmermann, the southpaw works off a low-90s fastball with over 30 percent sliders and a mix of 70s curveballs and changeups. According to Fangraphs pitch values, he’s had one of the most effective sliders in baseball this season.

Last Outing (@ KC on Aug. 28) – 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR

The Bullpen

Shane Greene is still the Tigers’ closer. Joe Jimenez had emerged as a setup man, but he’s struggled of late. Josh Smoker and Daniel Stumpf are the lefties in the bullpen. The group has a high ERA (4.51) but has put together league-average-ish peripherals. Here are their post-All-Star break numbers going into yesterday:

  • 4.67 ERA (24th in MLB)
  • 4.21 FIP (12th in MLB)
  • 0.7 WAR (11th in MLB)
  • 21.7% K rate (18th in MLB)
  • 7.5% BB rate (8th in MLB)
  • 1.31 HR/9 (20th in MLB)

The team needed 4 1/3 innings out of five relievers Wednesday, though they’ll receive the boost of September callups in just a few days.

Yankees Connection

Greene was the price the Yankees paid to get Didi Gregorius while 40-man roster presence Johnny Barbato pitched 13 lackluster innings as a rookie for the Bombers in 2016.

Who (Or What) to Watch?

  • This is the type of offense the Yankees should shut down. Could be nice to see the Wild Card Game starting candidates (Happ, Severino, Tanaka) go on a roll vs. the Tigers.
  • I like watching Matthew Boyd pitch (and not just because he gave up that monster Gary Sanchez homer last year!)

Yankees sending Estevan Florial, Thairo Estrada, five others to the Arizona Fall League

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Florial. (Presswire)

The 2019 Arizona Fall League rosters were announced this afternoon and the Yankees are sending seven players to the desert this year: RHP Domingo Acevedo, IF Thairo Estrada, OF Estevan Florial, RHP Jordan Foley, RHP Hobie Harris, IF Steven Sensley, and RHP Matt Wivinis. One or two players may still be added to the roster, as is the case every year.

Florial, the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect, is the headliner here. He missed roughly two months with wrist surgery earlier this season and is hitting .278/.377/.415 (129 wRC+) with six home runs in 80 games this season, mostly with High-A Tampa. Florial hit .286/.383/.414 in 19 AzFL games last year and is returning this year to make up the at-bats he lost due to injury.

Various injuries have limited Estrada to only 18 games this season and I’m glad to see he’s healthy and going to the AzFL. Been a tough year for him. Estrada was shot in the hip during a robbery in January, then missed time with groin, back, and wrist problems during the regular season. Last year Estrada hit a strong .342/.381/.430 in 20 AzFL Games.

Acevedo, like Florial, is going to the AzFL to make up for lost time. A blister and a biceps injury have limited him to 69.1 innings this season, most with Double-A Trenton, during which he’s pitched to a 2.99 ERA (3.22 FIP with 20.0% strikeouts and 6.1% walks. Acevedo pitched in the AzFL back in 2015. The fact he’s going this year suggests he will not be a September call-up. Rarely do guys do both.

Interestingly enough, Sensley is listed on the roster as an infielder, indicating his move to first base was not a short-term thing. He was drafted as an outfielder last year before moving to first base with High-A Tampa this year. Sensley is hitting .246/.330/.445 (121 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 107 games split between Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa.

Foley, Harris, and Wivinis are are fringe prospect depth relievers. Foley has a 3.18 ERA (4.22 FIP) with 23.0% strikeouts in 62.1 innings this year, all in Trenton. Harris has a 2.53 ERA (4.03 FIP) in 46.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. Wivinis has a 2.56 ERA (2.86 ERA) and 34.4% strikeouts in 52.2 innings at three levels this season. These guys are roster fillers more than legit prospects getting a longer look.

Yankees prospects will play for the Glendale Desert Dogs in the AzFL this year. They’ll be on a team with Dodgers, Indians, Orioles, and White Sox prospects. The 30-game AzFL schedule begins Tuesday, October 9th, and runs through Thursday, November 15th. The Championship Game will be played Saturday, November 17th.

Yankeemetrics: White Sox end Bronx drought (Aug. 27-29)

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(AP)

How to snatch defeat from jaws of victory
The Yankees kicked off their week-long homestand with a frustrating loss to the White Sox, a spectacular crash back to reality, another late lead blown thanks to sloppy defense and baserunning mistakes.

It was a very winnable matchup based on the historical stats and the game conditions, facing Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon, racing out to a 2-0 lead and Masahiro Tanaka completing seven innings. Consider that entering Monday, the Yankees this season were …

  • 26-9 against left-handed starters, the best record in MLB
  • 19-5 vs the AL Central, the best record by any team against another division
  • 60-10 when scoring first, the best record in MLB
  • 51-7 when their starter goes at least six innings, the best record in MLB

But that’s baseball, that’s why you play game the game on the diamond and not on paper.

The ugliest stat was the fact that the Yankees had as many hits as errors (3) in the game. Unsurprisingly, teams are 0-20 this season when the number of errors they make is the same or more than the number of hits they get. The last time the Yankees won such a game — while getting at least two hits — was June 2, 2004 against the Orioles (3 errors, 3 hits in a 6-5 win).

The lone highlight was Gleyber Torres’ two-run homer in the fourth inning, his 20th of the season. Torres is the third Yankee age 21 or younger to hit at least 20 home runs in a season, joining — shockingly — Mickey Mantle (1952, ‘53) and Joe DiMaggio (1936). He is also the only second baseman in MLB history that young to hit 20 homers in his rookie season. And combined with Miguel Andujar’s 20-plus longballs this year, we get a trio of #FunFacts:

  • First set of rookie teammates in franchise history to hit 20 homers
  • 10th team in major-league history to have rookie teammates reach 20 home runs in the same season, and the first since the 2008 Reds (Jay Bruce, Joey Votto). The last AL team to do it was the 1982 Twins (Tom Brunansky, Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek)
  • Fourth team in MLB history with rookie teammates age-23 or younger to hit 20 homers, along with the 1982 Twins, 1975 Red Sox (Fred Lynn, Jim Rice) and 1938 Indians (Jeff Heath, Ken Keltner)

Gleyber also was the sixth Yankee to reach the 20-homer mark in 2018, the most such players in MLB. This is the fourth Yankee club to have six (or more) players hit 20 bombs; the other seasons it happened were 2009, 2004 and 1961.

(USA Today)

”Neil Walker, the Home Run Corker” – John Sterling
From massive disappointment to mammoth jubilation, the Yankees quickly rebounded from Monday’s crappy loss with a thrilling comeback walk-off win 24 hours later. It was their seventh walk-off win of the season, two more than last year, and tied for the second-most among AL teams in 2018 (through Tuesday).

The rally started in the sixth with the team trailing 4-0, when Miguel Andujar blitzed a two-run shot deep into the leftfield seats. It was his 22nd homer and 61st extra-base hit of the season, putting him alongside a couple Yankee legends:

This was the Yankees fifth comeback win when facing a deficit of at least four runs, their most in a season since 2012 (also 5).

The Yankees were still down by two runs until Aaron Hicks evened the score with his own two-run blast in the bottom of the eighth. This was the first time in his career he tied a game in the eighth inning or later with a homer. It also paved the way for the Yankees fifth win this season when trailing by multiple runs at the start of the eighth inning, the second-highest total in MLB this season behind the A’s (7).

Neil Walker capped the rally when he ambushed the first pitch he saw as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth inning and deposited it into the rightfield bleachers. It was just the second career walk-off homer for Walker, and the first time he ever went deep in a game as a pinch hitter.

Walker’s dinger was the 10th pinch-hit walk-off home run in franchise history and the first since Brian McCann delivered a game-winner off the bench on August 24, 2014 in the 10th inning against the White Sox. Only six others have done it in the ninth inning, like Walker:

Yankees Pinch-Hit Walk-Off HR in 9th Inning
Date Opponent
Neil Walker 8/28/2018 White Sox
Jason Giambi 6/5/2008 Blue Jays
Mike Easler 9/28/1987 Red Sox
Bobby Murcer 9/26/1981 Orioles
Oscar Gamble 9/27/1979 Indians
Curt Blefary 9/15/1970 Red Sox
Mickey Mantle 8/26/1966 Tigers

It’s been a while …
The comeback mojo disappeared on Wednesday as the Yankees dropped the rubber game, 4-1. This is the first time the Yankees lost a series to the White Sox at the new Yankee Stadium; the White Sox were the only AL team that had never won a series at the current ballpark in the Bronx.

The last time the Yankees lost a series to the White Sox at home was August 8-10, 2005 (lost 2 of 3 games). How long ago was that? The White Sox — on pace to lose nearly 100 games this season — won the World Series in 2005. And the three starters for the Yankees in that series more than 13 years ago were Mike Mussina (win), Shawn Chacon (loss) and Aaron Small (loss).

(USA Today)

White Sox outfield Ryan LaMarre was the Yankees kryptonite on Wednesday, and one of the most unlikely guys to play that role this season. LaMarre went 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer, and drove in all four runs for the visitors. Entering the game, in 165 career at-bats, LaMarre had compiled six doubles, one homer and 11 RBI.

Ronald Torreyes made sure the Yankees wouldn’t get shut out when he delivered a bases-loaded one-out RBI single in the fifth inning. Torreyes definitely has a knack for bringing home baserunners that are 90 feet from home plate. Since the start of last season, in 23 plate appearances with a man on third and less than two outs, Torreyes has driven in the runner 19 times (82.6%) and has struck out zero times; the MLB average for scoring the runner from third with less than two outs is 50 percent.