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The Yankees are running out of free agents to sign with their remaining luxury tax plan dollars

March 12, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Opening Day is only two weeks and three days away now, and the final few notable free agents are starting to land contracts. Over the weekend Mike Moustakas (one year, $6.5M), Lance Lynn (one year, $12M), and Jake Arrieta (three years, $75M) all agreed to deals that are undoubtedly smaller than they hoped coming into the offseason. It was a tough winter for free agents.

The Yankees signed only one free agent to a guaranteed Major League contract this offseason (CC Sabathia) but they were connected to a bunch. Moustakas, Lynn, Yu Darvish, Neil Walker, Alex Cobb … the Yankees seem to check in on everyone at some point. They just didn’t actually sign anyone aside from Sabathia, even with $22M in payroll space remaining under the $197M luxury tax threshold. That’s a pretty nice chunk of change.

The Yankees are reportedly planning to set aside $10M of that $22M for midseason additions, though the way things are going right now, they could end up taking all $22M into the season. There simply aren’t enough quality free agents still available. The way I see it, there are only three free agents worth a guaranteed contract still on the market:

Alex Cobb
Greg Holland
Neil Walker

Yeah, the Yankees could throw a million bucks or two at someone like R.A. Dickey or Trevor Cahill, but those guys don’t move the needle much, if at all. Cobb, Holland, and Walker are potential impact players and they would chew up a sizeable chunk of that $22M in payroll space, should the Yankees reel one of them in. A few thoughts on this.

1. Holland doesn’t make any sense for the Yankees. Holland had a 3.61 ERA (3.72 FIP) last year — it was a 6.38 ERA (4.99 FIP) in the second half — in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, and it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll be better this year as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction. He still might only be the Yankees’ seventh best reliever though. Giving precious luxury tax payroll dollars — not to mention forfeiting two draft picks and $1M in international bonus money — to another reliever with his bullpen doesn’t make sense to me. Not the best use of limited resources.

2. Walker is still kinda sorta maybe a fit. The Yankees reportedly discussed a deal with Walker before the Brandon Drury trade, and they could still bring him in to play second base. Tyler Wade is the presumed starter at the position right now, and while I am a pro-Wade guy, the safe bet is Walker being the more productive player in 2018. The Yankees could throw him a few million bucks, use Wade as a super utility guy, and enjoy the depth. Unlikely? Yes. Possible? Yeah, sure. If the Yankees are really eager to spend some of that $22M, Walker remains a possibility.

3. Okay, so why would Cobb come to New York? Clearly, Cobb is the Yankees’ best option among the remaining free agents. They’ve been looking for a starter all winter and he is now by far the best available starter. Lynn set the market for Cobb, not Arrieta. He’s looking at a one-year contract in the $12M range. Maybe he can secure multiple years now that supply and demand is working in his favor, but it seems unlikely.

Aaron Boone named Jordan Montgomery his fifth starter a few days ago but he left some wiggle room there — “I viewed it as he was a front-runner for that spot … When I look at him I look at him as one of our starters,” said Boone to George King — and besides, plans can change. Signing Cobb and stashing Montgomery in Triple-A is a perfectly reasonable plan to me. The more pitching depth, the better.

The question isn’t whether Cobb is a fit for the Yankees. It’s whether the Yankees are a fit for Cobb. If he ends up taking a one-year contract, why would he come to Yankee Stadium and try to build value going into free agency next winter? Yankees Stadium is not a pitcher friendly. It’s not impossible — Hiroki Kuroda joined the Yankees on a one-year deal back in the day — it just seems like Cobb would have other options that better suit him.

The Yankees could, of course, blow him away with an offer and make the Yankee Stadium thing moot. Because payroll dollars this season are finite, any “blow you away” offer would presumably be a multi-year deal. Eh. Are the Yankees really going to wait all this time to get Cobb at the discount only to give him multiple years? Seems to defeat the purpose. In that case they could’ve signed him weeks ago to ensure he had a normal Spring Training.

I have some concerns about Cobb, specifically last year’s decline of his trademark splitter. And as I said in the chat last week, I keep going back and forth on him. He’d help because he’s a quality big league starter, but I wouldn’t lose any sleep if the Yankees miss out. Same with Lynn. I dunno. At this point, I think it’s obvious Cobb is the best place for the Yankees to spend some of that $22M in payroll space. That doesn’t make him a must sign, however.

4. What about in-season additions? Luxury tax hits are pro-rated when you acquire a player during the season, so that $22M equals a lot of wiggle room come the trade deadline. Right now the Yankees can take on $22M in contracts and stay under the luxury. At the halfway point of the season, they could add $44M in contracts because the pro-rated tax hit would be $22M. That is the overly simplified math, but that’s the idea.

Baseball uses a 186-day calendar now, so that $22M works out to $118,279 per day, basically. On Opening Day, the Yankees would be able to add $22M in contracts and still stay under the luxury tax threshold. On the second day of the season, it would be $22,118,279. On the third day it would be $22,236,558. On the fourth day it would be $22,354,837. So on and so forth. That adds up quickly. The $22M in luxury tax space would allow the Yankees to take on significant salary at the trade deadline (Cole Hamels? Jeff Samardzija? Danny Duffy?).

* * *

At this point, the Yankees are running out of places to spend their money in free agency. Signing Holland seems like it would be spending money for the sake of spending money. Walker at least makes some sense for the roster. Cobb makes the most sense of all, and he might try to avoid Yankee Stadium if at all possible. (My guess is he winds up with the Brewers or Mariners.) There aren’t any other free agents out there worth committing real dollars too at this point.

We’ve all been waiting (and waiting) for the Yankees to spend some of their remaining luxury tax payroll dollars, but it hasn’t happened yet, and with each passing day it seems less and less likely to happen. They very well might take all that luxury tax space into the season to set themselves up for a splash at the deadline, and hey, that’s great. The more salary you take on in a trade the less you have to give up in prospects, in theory. Right now, if the Yankees don’t sign Cobb, there doesn’t seem to be anyone else worth signing. Bank that money for the trade deadline.

Hot Stove Links: Darvish, Cobb, Machado, Choi

January 4, 2018 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers report in less than six weeks and there are a whole bunch of free agents who have to sign between now and then. Good free agents too. I wonder how many will be stuck looking for work in mid-March? We’ll see. Here’s the latest Yankees-related hot stove news.

Yankees still in on Darvish and Cobb

The Yankees remain interested in Yu Darvish and Alex Cobb, though they are unlikely to get seriously involved unless they can free up more payroll space under the $197M luxury tax threshold, reports Jon Heyman. We first heard about the team’s interest in Darvish and Cobb last month. Aside from Tyler Chatwood and CC Sabathia, every significant free agent starting pitcher remains unsigned at this point, with Spring Training less than six weeks away.

Clearly the Yankees want another starting pitcher, and not just a depth arm. They want an impact guy. Just look at their rumored targets: Darvish, Cobb, Gerrit Cole, Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer, etc. That said, I don’t think they’re all that serious about the free agents — unless they get a sweetheart deal — because of the luxury tax plan. I think Plan A is dipping into the farm system and trading excess prospects for a younger, controllable starter. The Yankees already have five starters, so they can afford to sit back and let the market play out, and see if anything falls into their lap before Spring Training.

Yankees remain interested in Machado

Manny Machado’s name continues popping up in trade rumors, and according to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees remain interested in the Orioles third baseman. They have not yet “discussed names that have moved the needle for Baltimore,” however. The Yankees have a great big opening at third base, an opening Machado would fill more than capably, though the intra-division/Peter Angelos dynamic makes a trade very unlikely.

Maybe I’m wrong, but trading top prospects for one year of Machado doesn’t strike me as something the Yankees would do. Does it improve the 2018 Yankees? Without a doubt. I don’t think the Yankees want to pay twice for him, so to speak. They’d have to trade top prospects to get him, then give him a market rate contract to retain him after the season. I’ve seen the rumors that Machado wants to play in New York, but I think it would be foolish to expect him to take some kind of discount. I don’t see the Yankees trading prospects for Machado now when they could simply sign him in a year, even though that doesn’t help them in 2018.

Yankees made offer to Choi

According to Jee-Ho Yoo, the Yankees are one of several teams to make an offer to free agent first baseman Ji-Man Choi. I assume it was a minor league contract offer. Choi, 26, spent most of last season with Triple-A Scranton, though he did make a six-game cameo with the Yankees, going 4-for-15 (.267) with two homers. He hit .288/.373/.538 (149 wRC+) with 15 homers in 87 games with the RailRiders.

The Yankees are going to need a pretty good Triple-A first baseman this coming season. Greg Bird is locked into the big league job, but he’s had trouble staying healthy the last few years, and backup plan Chase Headley has been traded. Right now Tyler Austin is No. 2 on the first base depth chart and he’s had his own health/production issues in recent years. Mike Ford was taken in the Rule 5 Draft, leaving Ryan McBroom as No. 3 on the depth chart. Expect a Choi-esque signing before Spring Training.

Assessing Trade Targets

December 17, 2017 by Matt Imbrogno Leave a Comment

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Yankees are looking for pitching. It’s shocking, I know, but it’s going on. Even though they ‘found’ a pitcher yesterday by re-signing CC Sabathia to a one year, $10 million contract, it’s unlikely that they’ll just settle in with what they have. Sure, a rotation of Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, Sabathia, and Jordan Montgomery is solid, but that doesn’t mean they can’t and won’t add to it. We’ve seen the Yankees connected to free agent Alex Cobb a bunch of times this offseason. However, most of the buzz around the Yankees and pitching seems to be concentrated around the trade rumor mill.

Over the past two weeks or so, the Yankees have been linked to no fewer than four starting pitchers in trade rumors. One is division rival Chris Archer of the Rays. Another, also in the AL is Tigers’ starter and 2016 AL Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer. The other two hail from the National League–Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, the Yankees’ first round draft pick in 2008, and Patrick Corbin off the Diamondbacks (who became an absolute monster in one iteration of franchise mode in The Show for me many moons ago).

When considering a trade, we’ve got a multitude of factors to weigh, but they can be boiled down to three fundamental categories: cost, control, and performance.

Cost operates on two fronts: How much money and how many players will it take to get your target? Control considers the player’s current contract and that/those of the player(s) you’re giving up. And performance deals, of course, with whether or not the guy is any good or has done well. All three categories can and will intersect when evaluating whether or not to make a trade.

To bring work home with me even more than an English teacher already does, I developed a quick rubric of sors to judge each trade candidate using the aforementioned fundamental categories.

Category/Score	3	2	1
Cost $	Low $	Medium $	High $
Cost player	Low player	Medium player	High player
Control	3+ years beyond 2018	1-2 years beyond 2018	Impending free agent
Performance	High performance consistently AND recently	Some inconsistencies, may be a rebound/regression candidate	Consistently poor performance

For the acquiring team, you obviously want the cost to be low and the control and performance to each be high. The better that combination, the more desirable the trade target. Let’s use Giancarlo Stanton as a test case or model to implement this rubric. We have hindsight here and in a vacuum, without the Marlins’ apparently dire financial situation, Stanton would be high on all three categories. He’s got a big contract for a long, long time, and just won NL MVP; in a “normal” world, he would’ve cost an arm, a leg, and then some. But, in reality, Stanton was acquired for a low player cost and even the big cost of his contract–which has him under control for a long time, a double-edged sword, perhaps–is somewhat mitigated by the Marlins kicking in $30 million. By any rubric or measure, this was a no brainer trade for the Yankees to make.

Let’s lead off by looking at Gerrit Cole, the pitcher most consistently linked to the Yankees recently. Cole is projected by MLBTR to make $7.5 million in 2018. That’s not bad at all. Additionally, he’s also under control for 2018 and 2019. The former puts him at a 3 for Cost $ and a 2 for control. Not a bad start. The player cost is where we hit a bit of a bump or a snag. Yesterday, it got out that the Pirates were going to ask for Gleyber Torres in exchange for Cole, which is, uh, not gonna happen. Good for them for asking, but I’d sooner bet on the snowball in hell. Failing Torres, though, it’s likely the Pirates will then ask for Clint Frazier and more–Chance Adams, perhaps, and another lesser piece. At first blush, that seems to be the going rate for a pitcher of Cole’s reputation, so that could just be the cost of doing business, right? You’ve gotta give to get and all that, and if both sides are hurting, then the trade is probably good. But Cole seems to have more in the bank on reputation than on performance lately. He was downright elite in 2015 but then just sorta good in 2016–and hurt–and pretty meh overall in 2017. He had a big home run spike last year–his HR/FB% more than doubled from the year before–which could explain a lot. But when you’re poised to give up someone as talented as Clint Frazier and a potential league-minimum, back of the rotation guy in Chance Adams, AND another piece, I’d want something more than a guy who’s pretty much the definition of a 2 on my rubric. The idea of Cole seems to be better than the reality.

Starting with the money, we get another manageable situation in Diamondbacks lefty Patrick Corbin. He’s projected to make $8.5 million. Another 3 in the Cost $ category. Where he loses out, though, is that this is his last year of team control and he’s a free agent at the end of the year. Big time 1 in the Control category. That would likely bring his player cost down, too, as would performance that was okay-ish in 2017 (4.03 ERA, 4.08 FIP), his second full year back from injury after missing all of 2014. 2016, by the way, was pretty ugly for Corbin (5.15 ERA, 4.84 FIP). What stands out is a garishly high HR/FB% of 15.8% last year; his career mark is 13.8%. Granted he plays in a homer friendly park, but that wouldn’t be likely to move down in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. If I’m feeling generous, I give him a 1.75 in the Performance category and probably a high 1, low 2 for player cost. Overall, I don’t think this one would be worth it unless that player cost dipped way down low.

Chris Archer is a pitcher who, on the face of things, passes every mark for a Yankee trade target. He’s got a good reputation and has spent his entire career in the AL East. Beyond that, he’s got a team friendly contract that has him making $6.25 million in 2018, $7.5 million in 2019, $9 million in 2020, and $11 million in 2021; the latter two are club options with buyouts of $1.75 million and $250, 000 respectively. That all makes for a fantastic mark in both Cost $ and Control. Unfortunately, that also means he’d likely be a 1 in Cost Player. Add on the fact that the Yankees would be trading with a division foe and you’re looking at a very steep cost. In terms of the Performance category, Archer is sort of in the same territory as Gerrit Cole; based on the way we think and talk about him, you’d think his stats would be a lot more glowing. While he hasn’t been bad by any real stretch, he’s failed to repeat the great season he had in 2015. A big home run spike in 2016 and 2017 is likely the cause of that. Still, he throws lots of innings (200+ the last three seasons), strikes out lots of guys, and doesn’t walk a ton of batters. Throw in that with the with the contract and this is someone who, unlike Cole, I could see giving up some top-flight talent for.

Michael Fulmer is about to start his third year of MLB service, so his first shot at arbitration won’t be until a year from now. Per Cot’s , Fulmer is also going to qualify for Super 2 status, meaning he’s got an extra year of arbitration, giving his team control of him through 2022. Hot damn. That’s a 3 and then some on the Control category. Even if he signed some sort of extension or contract, his mark in Cost $ is going to be a 3 pretty much no matter what. In terms of performance, Fulmer more or less repeated his ROY season, though with a lower strikeout rate. He kept up a big ground ball rate, though, and did a good job of keeping the ball in the park. That would probably change in moving from Comerica Park to Yankee Stadium, of course. Still, he’s got good control and command and keeps the ball on the ground; if you’re not going to strike people out, those two are the next best things. All this, though, of course means that Fulmer’s player cost is going to be sky high. The Tigers would be justified in asking anything–non-Torres division–in exchange for Fulmer. While there would be doubts in my mind about paying the player cost for Cole and some minor ones in paying the player cost for Archer, those more or less don’t apply to Fulmer. A young, supremely controlled pitcher with history of solid performance? Yep.

Given all this, my preferred order of acquisition would look like this:

Fulmer, followed by Archer, then a toss up between Corbin and Cole. While Cole is definitely the better pitcher, the cost for Corbin would likely be a lot lower, which evens them out a little bit. I’m not sure, obviously, what’s going to happen, but if the Yankees are going to go hard for one of these guys, it should be Fulmer. The farm system would take a hit and it would suck to say goodbye to someone as fun and cool as Clint Frazier, but Fulmer would make an immediate impact and a lasting one.

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Alex Cobb

December 6, 2017 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

Coming into the offseason it was clear the Yankees need at least one starting pitcher, if not two given the big workloads the staff endured in 2017. In a perfect world one of those two starters would’ve been Shohei Ohtani. That won’t happen though. Re-signing CC Sabathia seems likely, at least I think so, but even then there’s still room for another starter. There’s no such thing as too much pitching depth.

One of the top free agent starters this offseason — I’d say he’s the top second tier starter behind Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta — is longtime Rays right-hander Alex Cobb. He turned 30 in October, and even though the Rays haven’t been a .500 team since 2013 (true story), Cobb has been through the AL East grinder and knows what it’s like pitching against great teams in tough hitter friendly environments. The Yankees have not been seriously connected to him yet, only speculatively, though I suspect it’ll happen at some point. Let’s break Cobb down as a potential target.

Injury History

This is the logical place to start, because Cobb’s injury history is sneaky long. So long in fact that his 179.1 innings this season represent a new career high. Here’s a recap of his injury history with the amount of time missed:

2010: Oblique strain (one month)
2011: Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery (missed final two months of the season)
2013: Concussion (two months after being hit by a line drive)
2014: Oblique strain (six weeks)
2015: Tommy John surgery (entire season)
2016: Tommy John surgery rehab (returned to MLB in late August)
2017: Turf toe (three weeks)

Definitely some fluky stuff in there that is not a long-term concern. Two oblique strains four years apart? It happens. Turf toe? Whatever. Getting hit in the head by a line drive and being carted off the field on a stretcher, as scary as that is, is a total fluke. The baddest of bad luck injuries.

On the other hand, Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is very serious and can end careers if not caught early enough. Tommy John surgery is obviously very bad too. The combination of the two is worse than the sum of the parts. Chris Carpenter is the only notable example of a pitcher who had both and went on to have a long career. Shaun Marcum and Noah Lowry had both and were done. Jaime Garcia had both and hasn’t been the same since. Same with Matt Harvey, though he’s only a year removed from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery.

The good news is Cobb had the procedures five years apart, and he returned in 2017 to be an effective pitcher in close to 180 innings. So perhaps he’s the next Carpenter rather than the next Marcum. In fact, he’s already ahead of the game just by making it back from both procedures and throwing a full season. Still though, that’s a pretty scary injury history, even ignoring the fluky stuff.

Recent Performance

When Cobb returned with his new elbow late last year, he was so bad that it’s almost hard to believe. He allowed 22 runs and 39 baserunners in five starts and 22 innings last season, after returning in August. Yuck. That said, it was his first five starts back from Tommy John surgery, so it’s fair to cut the guy some slack. Chalk it up to the rust and the usual post-elbow reconstruction wonkiness.

This season Cobb was much better, as he got further away from Tommy John surgery, though he did not perform like he did immediately prior to the injury. His numbers were down across the board. Here is Cobb’s final pre-Tommy John surgery season and his first full post-Tommy John surgery season:

	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	GB%	HR/9	RHB wOBA	LHB wOBA
2014	166.1	2.87	3.23	21.9%	6.9%	56.2%	0.6	.294	.265
2017	179.1	3.66	4.16	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	1.1	.311	.295

Do you remember what baseball was like in 2014? Nobody scored runs. Teams scored, on average, 4.07 runs per game. The Angels led baseball with 4.77 runs per game that year. This season teams averaged 4.65 runs per game with the Astros leading the pack at 5.53 runs per game. The juiced ball has brought back offense, thankfully. I missed it.

Anyway, because of the offensive explosion from 2014 to 2017, we have to throw Cobb a bit of a bone here. His home run rate nearly doubled? Okay, part of that is what’s going on around baseball in general. The decline in strikeout rate and ground ball rate is not a juiced ball problem, however. In fact, we should’ve expected Cobb’s strikeout rate to increase this year because there are so many more strikeouts in baseball now.

That 2.87 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 2014 work out 77 ERA- and an 88 FIP-, meaning his ERA was 23% better than average and his FIP was 12% better than average. This year he had 86 ERA- and a 97 FIP-. Still better than average! But not as good as before Tommy John surgery when adjusted for ballpark and the offensive environment around baseball. Long story short: Cobb was good this year, but not as good as he was before blowing out his elbow.

Current Stuff

If you’ve been watching the Yankees long enough, chances are you’ve seen Cobb shut them down with that nasty split-finger fastball of his at some point. That pitch is the reason he made it to the big leagues. That pitch is also perhaps the biggest red flag surrounding Cobb at this point. Since Tommy John surgery, it has behaved almost nothing it did before he had his elbow rebuilt.

Eno Sarris touched on this back in April, but that was very early in the season, and now we have a full season’s worth of data to examine. Cobb’s splitter lost quite a bit of effectiveness from his pre-Tommy John surgery days. Here are the splitter numbers, ignoring that short and messy 2016 stint.

	% Thrown	Velo Gap	Vert Mvmt Diff	Horiz Mvmt Diff	% Whiffs	% GB
2013	32.7%	5.23	5.70	-0.29	18.9%	60.0%
2014	37.7%	5.26	5.22	0.76	21.1%	62.0%
2017	14.3%	6.07	1.72	-0.34	12.3%	51.8%

Cobb does throw his curveball regularly, though the sinker and splitter are his top two pitches, and that’s what we’re comparing here. The velocity gap and movement differences are between the sinker and splitter. That’s the whole point, right? Use the sinker to set up the splitter. You want the pitches to be similar but different, if that makes sense. A couple quick observations:

This year Cobb threw his trademark splitter way less than ever before in his MLB career. Imagine if Masahiro Tanaka did that? He’d be an entirely different pitcher.
Cobb had a larger velocity gap between his sinker and splitter this year than he did in 2013 and 2014, and that’s good. You want a big velocity gap between your fastball and offspeed stuff.
From 2013-14, Cobb’s splitter dropped more than five inches more than his sinker. This year the difference was less than two inches. That’s a significant difference. The bottom wasn’t falling out of the split.
The difference in horizontal movement between the two pitches was about the same this year as 2013, though way less than 2014. (The negative number in the table means the sinker moved more horizontally than the split.)

Ideally you want an 8-10 mph gap between your fastball and offspeed pitch (if not more), but even at his best from 2013-14, Cobb’s velocity gap was roughly five-and-a-quarter miles an hour. Because he doesn’t have that huge velocity gap, he relies on movement more than most, and for whatever reason, the split is not moving like it did before Tommy John surgery, especially vertically. It’s not diving out of the zone.

It should also be noted Cobb’s release point with his splitter — and only his splitter, weirdly — has risen since he came back from Tommy John surgery. He’s releasing the splitter from a higher spot than before his elbow ligament gave out. Look:

That is weird. Is the change in release point causing the lack of movement? Or has Cobb raised his release point in an effort to generate more movement? Chicken or the egg, man. Chicken or the egg. Whatever it is, Cobb is not getting the same movement on his splitter now as he did before Tommy John surgery, and as a result, the pitch is generating fewer swings and misses and ground balls. And he’s not throwing it nearly as often.

The split-finger is what made Cobb so good before Tommy John surgery and that pitch is the key to him being a quality pitcher going forward. His sinker is fine and his curveball is fine, but they’re not good enough that he can scale back that much on his splitter and succeed forever. Like I said, what if Tanaka stopped throwing his splitter so much? He’d be a much different pitcher. Anyway, here’s some video of Cobb this year:

Seven strikeouts in the video. Four on sinkers and three on curveballs. Not one splitter. That would’ve been unthinkable for Cobb before Tommy John surgery. Bottom line: Cobb was quite good this season, but his splitter is not the same as it was before his elbow gave out for whatever reason, and unless that changes, there’s no reason to think he’ll return to his previous level of performance. He’s now a solid starter, not someone who is a borderline ace like he was from 2013-14. And hey, that’s fine. Solid starters are good to have.

Contract Estimates

Cobb is one of the top free agent starters on the market and that means he will be paid quite well. Quality starters never have trouble finding work. Here are two contract estimates:

MLBTR: Four years, $48M ($12M per year).
FanGraphs Crowdsourcing: Four years, $56M ($14M per year).

I think both estimates are low. I could totally see Cobb pulling down $16M annually on a four or even five-year deal. That’s Ian Kennedy money. No, Kennedy did not have Tommy John surgery in his recent past, but he also wasn’t as good as Cobb, and he was a year older than Cobb is now when he hit free agency. Cobb at four years and $48M sounds pretty great actually, splitter issues be damned.

Also, keep in mind the Rays made Cobb the qualifying offer. Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement the Yankees would have to surrender their second and fifth round picks in the 2018 draft, and $1M in bonus money during the 2018-19 international signing period, to sign a qualified free agent. I’d rather give all that up than my first round pick like they did in old days, but that’s just me.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Yes because he’s a quality starter — even with his post-Tommy John surgery splitter — and the Yankees could use another quality starter. It sure doesn’t hurt that Cobb is AL East battle tested and turned only 30 in October, meaning you should get another year or two of peak performance, in theory. The Yankees need another starter and Cobb is among the best available, so yes, he’s a fit on the field.

Is he fit under the luxury tax plan? My calculations say the Yankees have about $35M to play with under the luxury tax threshold, though I underestimated the team’s contribution to player benefits, so it’s actually closer to $32M or so. Still though, that’s a nice chunk of change, so the Yankees can afford Cobb. Can they afford Cobb and Sabathia? Eh, probably not. Remember, they have to leave some money open for midseason call-ups and the trade deadline additions.

Personally, I think Cobb carries an awful lot of risk. He has both Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and Tommy John surgery in his history and his best pitch is not the same anymore, and I think it’s much more likely the pitch gets worse going forward with age, not better. Maybe Cobb will bounce back next year and pitch like the 2013-14 version of himself, or even just maintain his 2017 performance. I’m not willing to bet $12M or $14M or $16M or whatever it ends up being on him. It doesn’t matter what I think though. It matters what the Yankees think, and whether they’re willing to take the risk.

The Yankees are reportedly “very interested” in Alex Cobb, but should they be?

September 20, 2017 by Mike Axisa Leave a Comment

This offseason the Yankees will have to replace at least one, and possibly two, starting pitchers. CC Sabathia is due to become a free agent and Masahiro Tanaka could opt-out of his contract. I think it’ll happen. Even if it doesn’t, the Yankees will still need to replace Sabathia. And hey, maybe they’ll just re-sign Sabathia. I’d be cool with it. Sabathia is still the man.

Inevitably, the Yankees will be connected to several free agent pitchers this offseason, including the top guys like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Even when the Yankees aren’t interested, agents say they are because it’s good for their clients, and the Yankees usually play ball because it means an opposing team will have to pay more. I would be surprised if the Yankees signed a top free agent this winter though. We’ll see.

Among the many mid-range free agents due to hit the market this offseason is Rays right-hander Alex Cobb, who we’ve seen plenty of times over the years. The splitter specialist has a 3.63 ERA (4.15 FIP) in 173.1 innings this season, his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. Cobb, who turns 30 in two weeks, threw 309.2 innings with a 2.82 ERA (3.29 FIP) from 2013-14, before blowing out his elbow.

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are among the teams “very interested” in Cobb. I had a feeling a “Yankees like Alex Cobb” report was coming at some point. On the surface, this makes sense. The Yankees need a starter, Cobb is AL battle tested, and he shouldn’t cost as much as Darvish or Arrieta (or Tanaka). Does that make him a good target though? Let’s look under the hood a bit.

1. His ground ball rate is trending down. During his peak years from 2013-14, Cobb ran a 56.0% ground ball rate, fourth highest among the 86 pitches to throw at least 300 innings those seasons. This year Cobb is down to a 47.7% ground ball rate, which isn’t awful, but it took a recent spike just to get it that high:

Granted, we have to cut Cobb some slack here because this is his first full season following Tommy John surgery, but how much slack is appropriate? Losing close to ten percentage points off your ground ball rate following elbow reconstruction is not insignificant.

2. The splitter has stopped getting swings and misses. In addition to all the ground balls, Cobb also ran a healthy 22.5% strikeout rate from 2013-14, so he combined the best of both worlds. Strikeouts and grounders. His success was not a mirage. Cobb was a bat missing, ground ball generating machine from 2013-14.

This season Cobb’s strikeout rate is down to 17.3%, which ranks 50th among the 63 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. The swing-and-miss rate on his splitter tells you all you need to know:

Hmmm. That doesn’t look good. The splitter is Cobb’s go to pitch. Take that pitch away from him and he’s not the same guy. Imagine Tanaka without his splitter? Well, we don’t have to imagine, we saw it earlier this season. For whatever reason Tanaka’s splitter wasn’t behaving properly earlier this year, and he was throwing batting practice. Cobb hasn’t been that bad. But how much longer until he is that bad? Bottom line: his splitter has not been a quality swing-and-miss offering. That undeniably cuts into his effectiveness.

3. Hitters are making much more hard contact. Not surprisingly, Cobb is allowing more hard contact this season, and that’s never good. When your trademark pitch isn’t working, it affects everything. Cobb’s fastball isn’t as effective as usual because hitters don’t have to worry so much about the split. Anyway, here’s his hard contact rate:

Yeah. That’s not good. Fewer strikeouts plus fewer ground balls plus more hard contact is not a good combination. That’s why Cobb has gone from a 2.82 ERA pre-Tommy John surgery to a (not bad!) 3.63 ERA post-Tommy John surgery. There are enough red flags here to be skeptical of Cobb going forward.

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It is so very easy to look at a potential trade or free agent target and come with reasons not to pursue him. I know I am guilty of it. All the time. So, for the sake of looking at both sides, what are some of the reasons to pursue Cobb as a free agent this offseason? First of all, if a 3.63 ERA (4.15 FIP) and not missing a start constitutes a down season, you’re pretty darn good. Two, Cobb has shown he can succeed in the tough AL East. That’s cool.

And three — and this might be the biggest reason to buy into Cobb long-term — it’s not unreasonable to think his performance will improve as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. This is his first full season back. He’s shaking off the rust. Cobb’s not old — again, he’ll turn 30 in two weeks — so there should still be a few years of peak or near-peak performance coming. He’s essentially a high-end bounceback candidate.

I am curious to see how Cobb’s market shakes out this offseason. I get the sense he’s going to be a very popular player with basically every contender in the mix. Want him? You’re going to have to outbid the Cubs, the Red Sox, the Nationals, the Cardinals, the Angels, the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks … every contender is going to show interest in this guy. Even though Cobb comes with some very real red flags, there are also reasons to be optimistic. I’m not 100% sold on him as a free agent target at the moment, but this offseason, he’ll be very in demand, and the Yankees figure to be among his suitors.