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River Ave. Blues » Josh Breaux

Previewing the Yankees’ potential non-roster Spring Training invitees for 2019

January 22, 2019 by Mike

(Presswire)

Three weeks from tomorrow pitchers and catchers will report to Tampa to begin Spring Training 2019. And, at some point between now and then, the Yankees will announce their non-roster invitees. Those are non-40-man roster players they are bringing to Major League Spring Training. All other non-40-man players go to minor league camp at the Himes Complex across the street.

Non-roster invitees come in all shapes and sizes. Some are top prospects and some are mid-range prospects. Others are veteran journeymen trying to hang on. Teams usually bring 20-25 non-roster players to camp each last year. Last spring the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp. Two years ago it was 23. Expect a similar amount this spring. The 40-man roster plus 20-25 non-roster invitees equals 60-65 total players in Spring Training.

So, with the non-roster invitee list due to be announced in the near future, I figured this is as good a time as any to look at the minor leaguers who could find themselves in big league camp this year. Some are obvious. Many aren’t. Let’s break this down position-by-position.

Catchers

(40-Man Roster Players: Kyle Higashioka, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez)

Every year every team invites a bunch of non-roster catchers to Spring Training. Why? Because who else is supposed to catch all those bullpen sessions and simulated games? The workload has to be spread around. And remember, Sanchez is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery. It was his non-throwing shoulder, but still. The Yankees will take it easy on him in February and March because they don’t want to put him at risk of missing time between April and November. Expect to see plenty of non-roster catchers against this spring.

Do not, however, expect to see Anthony Seigler or Josh Breaux, the Yankees’ top two picks in last year’s draft. It is not the appropriate place for them at this point of their careers. Only once in the last 13 years have the Yankees brought their first round pick in the previous year’s draft to Spring Training as a non-roster player. That was James Kaprielian in 2016. Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain didn’t even get non-roster invites in 2007. Seigler and Breaux won’t be in big league camp. It’s not their time.

My Prediction: Francisco Diaz, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Lidge, Donny Sands. Add in the three 40-man roster guys and that’s seven catchers total. Plenty for bullpens. Lavarnway signed a minor league deal and has big league time, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be a non-roster guy. Diaz has been a non-roster invitee each of the last three years. The Yankees re-signed him as a minor league free agent a few weeks ago and I’m sure he’ll again be in camp as a non-roster guy.

Lidge was the Yankees’ 20th round pick in 2017 and he played most of his games last year with Double-A Trenton. A catcher with Double-A time is prime “someone to catch spring bullpens” fodder. I’m on the fence about Sands. He has no Double-A time and only 42 High-A games under his belt. I’m just not sure who else it would be with Chace Numata and Jorge Saez, non-roster catchers last year, no longer in the organization. Maybe the Yankees have a low profile catcher signing coming? I could see it. I feel good about Diaz, Lavarnway, and Lidge. The seventh spot is a little more wide open.

Infielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Thairo Estrada, Didi Gregorius, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Tyler Wade)

Holder. (@MiLB)

The Yankees currently have nine infielders on the 40-man roster. Nine! That’s a ton. One of them is Gregorius, who won’t actually play in Spring Training because he’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but eight 40-man infielders is still a lot. Torres and Andujar are locked into positions now — that wasn’t the case last spring — but there’s the Tulowitzki comeback attempt and LeMahieu learning how to be a utility guy, so there will be some infield intrigue in Spring Training.

Almost every notable infield prospect in the organization is already on the 40-man roster. Kyle Holder is the exception. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring. He also played only 48 games last season due to injury and family matters, and he was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft. I still think the Yankees like him enough to bring him to camp as a non-roster guy. Holder’s a relatively recent high draft pick and gosh can the kid play defense. If you stuck around to watch the late innings of Grapefruit League games last year, you saw him play a beautiful shortstop.

Lower level infield prospects like Diego Castillo, Dermis Garcia, and Hoy Jun Park are not non-roster caliber players. Not right now and, given their development in recent years, maybe not ever. In most other years I’d be tempted to say Brandon Wagner is a non-roster candidate. He reached Double-A last season and finished one off the farm system home run lead. That said, there will be so many 40-man roster infielders in camp this year that I think Wagner gets squeezed out. There are only so many at-bats to go around.

My Prediction: Holder and Gio Urshela. Urshela, like Lavarnway, signed a minor league deal earlier this offseason and has big league time. He’ll be in Spring Training as a non-roster dude. Holder, Urshela, and the 40-man roster guys give the Yankees ten infielders for camp, not including Gregorius. Voit and Bird are the only true first basemen among those ten, but LeMahieu is apparently going to play some first, and both Lavarnway and Diaz have played the position as well. Maybe we’ll even see Andujar at first base. Either way, the Yankees are covered.

Outfielders

(40-Man Roster Players: Jacoby Ellsbury, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton)

Florial. (Presswire)

Frazier was recently cleared to play in Spring Training and that’s great news. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does with good health this season. Ellsbury, on the other hand, is coming back from hip surgery and a few weeks ago Brian Cashman admitted Ellsbury is questionable for Opening Day. If he’s questionable for Opening Day, then he’s questionable for Spring Training. So that’s really five healthy 40-man roster outfielders.

The Yankees have several near elite center field prospects but only one, Estevan Florial, will get a Spring Training invite. He was in camp as a non-roster player last spring and will be back this year as the team’s top prospect. Others like Everson Pereira and Antonio Cabello will be in minor league camp. Pereira is 17 and Cabello is 18. They are babies. Big league camp is not the right place for them. (Also, Cabello is coming back from offseason shoulder surgery, which is another reason to send him to minor league camp.)

With only five healthy 40-man roster outfielders — and one of those five was only recently cleared for full-fledged baseball activities — it seems to me the Yankees will bring at least one upper level depth outfielder to camp as a non-roster player. The likely candidates: Trey Amburgey, Jeff Hendrix, and Zack Zehner. Hendrix saw quite a bit of time as a minor league call-up in road games last spring. Amburgey is the best prospect of the bunch though, and prospect status tends to break ties.

My Prediction: Amburgey, Florial, Billy Burns, Matt Lipka. Burns and Lipka signed minor league deals earlier this month and the Yankees officially announced both contracts include an invitation to Spring Training, so there you go. There’s no mystery here. They’ll be there. Amburgey, Burns, Florial, and Lipka plus the five healthy 40-man roster guys would give the Yankees nine outfielders in Spring Training. Wade can play the outfield too, so that’s ten. That’s plenty. Part of me wonders if we’ll see LeMahieu out there at some point.

Right-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Albert Abreu, Domingo Acevedo, Chance Adams, Dellin Betances, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Chad Green, Joe Harvey, Ben Heller, Jonathan Holder, Tommy Kahnle, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and eventually Adam Ottavino)

King. (@MiLB)

Heller is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, so he’s a Spring Training non-factor. I’m looking forward to seeing Abreu and Acevedo in Grapefruit League action, personally. Abreu missed camp last year after having his appendix removed and Acevedo was held back because he spent part of the offseason recovering from a shoulder issue and his velocity was down. I also want to see Harvey because I’ve never seen him before, and Kahnle because I’m curious about his velocity. Hopefully it returns.

Anyway, the Yankees are loaded with pitching prospects. Too bad so many of them are in the low minors. You’re not going to see Luis Medina or Roansy Contreras or even Deivi Garcia in big league camp. Garcia is at best a maybe. I’m not saying that because I don’t like him as a prospect. I do. I’m saying that because history suggests the Yankees will not bring a 19-year-old pitching prospect to big league camp. It’s just not something they do. It’s not something many teams do, in fact.

The second tier pitching prospects though, the 20-somethings with Double-A (and in some cases Triple-A) time? We’ll see a few in camp. Always do. Mike King is an obvious yes. Do what he did last year while reaching Triple-A and you’ve earned yourself a non-roster invite. There’s a pretty good chance King will be called up at some point in 2019 and the Yankees will want him to get to know his teammates and coaches before that, and vice versa. Spring Training is the time to do it. King’s as easy a yes as it gets.

Nick Nelson, Trevor Stephan, and Garrett Whitlock are all potential non-roster candidates as well. So is Clarke Schmidt, the Yankees’ first round pick two years ago, in my opinion. He completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last season and pitched well in his limited game action. The Yankees are set to turn him loose this year and my hunch is that includes a Spring Training invite. He’ll probably be among the first cuts, but I think he’ll be there.

My Prediction: King, Nelson, Schmidt, Raynel Espinal, Danny Farquhar, Drew Hutchison, Brady Lail, one TBD spot. The Yankees reportedly want a swingman/sixth starter type to replace Sonny Gray, hence that TBD spot. Maybe they wind up getting a lefty instead. I’ll play the odds and predict a righty. Anyway, Farquhar and Hutchison signed minor league deals and have big league time, so they’ll be in camp. In fact, the Yankees announced Hutchison’s deal includes a spring invite, so there you go.

Lail’s been a non-roster guy each of the last three years — the Yankees seem to like him despite never calling him up or protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft — and I see no reason to think this spring will be any different. Espinal was a non-roster guy last year and he had a strong Triple-A season, so I think he’s back as well. He’s a potential inventory arm, someone who comes up in an emergency, and candidates for an emergency call-up usually get a Spring Training invite.

I’m going with Nelson over Stephan and Whitlock because, well, I’m kinda guessing here. I think at least one of those three gets a non-roster invite, and Nelson is both the oldest and has been in the system the longest, so I think it’ll be him. If the Yankees bring any other righties to big league camp, I think it’s more likely it’ll be a random Triple-A reliever like Cale Coshow or J.P. Feyereisen than Stephan or Whitlock. Between Hutchison, King, Nelson, and Schmidt, that is plenty of extra multi-inning pitchers.

Left-handers

(40-Man Roster Players: Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery, James Paxton, CC Sabathia, Stephen Tarpley)

Diehl. (Mark LoMoglio/Tampa Tarpons)

Montgomery is still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and we won’t see him in Grapefruit League games. We might not even see him throw bullpens in Spring Training. Montgomery had his elbow rebuild in June and pitchers usually don’t get back up on a mound until 8-10 months into the rehab process. He’ll just be getting to that point as Spring Training begins, which means little to no action. A bummer, but not a surprise.

The Yankees do not have any notable left-handed pitching prospects now that Justus Sheffield (and Josh Rogers) has been traded. Their best lefty pitching prospect is, uh, Nestor Cortes? Phil Diehl? Not great. Diehl had a statistically excellent 2018 season (2.51 ERA and 2.24 FIP with 36.2% strikeouts and 7.7% walks) and the Yankees had him throw simulated at-bats to Judge late in the season, when Judge was coming back from his wrist injury, which tells us the Yankees trust Diehl’s control. Otherwise they wouldn’t have let him pitch to the most valuable player in the organization and risk his wrist getting hit again. Maybe they’ll bring him to camp? Dunno.

My Prediction: Cortes, Diehl, Rex Brothers, Danny Coulombe. Brothers and Coulombe are on minor league contracts and both have quite a bit of big league time, so we know they’ll be in camp. Cortes was in big league camp with the Orioles as a Rule 5 Draft pick last spring — he even made their Opening Day roster — and he had yet another statistically excellent season last year. I think that’s enough to get him to Spring Training this year. Diehl is the token extra lefty reliever.

* * *

Alright, so putting that all together, we come away with 22 potential non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Those 22 players:

  • Catchers (4): Diaz, Lavarnway, Lidge, Sands or a TBD catcher
  • Infielders (2): Holder, Urshela
  • Outfielders (4): Amburgey, Burns, Florial, Lipka
  • Righties (8): Espinal, Farquhar, Hutchison, King, Lail, Nelson, Schmidt, TBD
  • Lefties (4): Brothers, Cortes, Coulombe, Diehl

On one hand, the Yankees had 20 non-roster players in camp last year, 23 the year before that, and 26 in each of the two years before that. Twenty-two this year would be a typical number of non-roster players. On the other hand, the Yankees have at least three (Ellsbury, Heller, Montgomery) and possibly four (Sanchez) 40-man roster players who will be either restricted or completely off-limits in Spring Training. The Yankees might carry more non-roster players than usual to cover for the rehabbing 40-man roster guys.

The farm system isn’t as strong or as deep as it was a few years ago, mostly because the Yankees have graduated so many of their top prospects to the big leagues. Remember when we all couldn’t wait to see Torres or Judge or Severino in camp as non-roster guys? Now they’re no doubt big leaguers. Florial and King will be the obvious “must see” prospects on this year’s non-roster list and, if they get invited, Nelson and Schmidt will be worth watching as well. Also, bet on there being some surprise non-roster invitees this spring. There are always a few.

Filed Under: Spring Training Tagged With: Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Billy Burns, Brady Lail, Brandon Wagner, Cale Coshow, Clarke Schmidt, Danny Coulombe, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Diego Castillo, Donny Sands, Drew Hutchison, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Francisco Diaz, Garrett Whitlock, Gio Urshela, Hoy Jun Park, J.P. Feyereisen, Jeff Hendrix, Josh Breaux, Kyle Holder, Luis Medina, Matt Lipka, Mike King, Nestor Cortes, Nick Nelson, Phil Diehl, Raynel Espinal, Rex Brothers, Roansy Contreras, Ryan Lavarnway, Ryan Lidge, Trevor Stephan, Trey Amburgey, Zack Zehner

A New Era in the Farm System [2018 Season Review]

December 6, 2018 by Mike

Florial. (Presswire)

It has been a crazy few years in the farm system. The Yankees had a middle of the pack system on Opening Day 2016. By the end of that season it was arguably the best farm system in the game, mostly because of the team’s trade deadline sell-off, but also because several guys who were already in the system broke out. Since the end of the 2016 season, that strong farm system has provided a steady pipeline of talent to the Bronx.

The farm system now is not what the farm system was then because of graduations and trades (and injuries and poor performances), which is what we all expected. If you have great prospects, you want them to become great big leaguers and leave the farm system behind. That is exactly what’s happened for the Yankees. The system is back to being middle of the pack now, maybe even worse, and for all the right reasons. Let’s review the year that was down in the minors.

The Graduates

The last two seasons (two and a half, really) have been incredible in terms of graduating prospects from the farm system to the big leagues. Gary Sanchez arrived in 2016. Last year it was Aaron Judge, Jordan Montgomery, and Chad Green. This season the Yankees graduated 3B Miguel Andujar (season review) and IF Gleyber Torres (season review) to the big leagues, and they finished second and third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, respectively. They came into the season as the top two position player prospects in the farm system.

Also graduating to MLB this year were RHP Jonathan Holder (season review), RHP Domingo German (season review), and IF Tyler Wade (season review). Wade actually exhausted his rookie eligibility last season through service time, but it wasn’t until this year that he exceeded the 130 at-bat rookie limit. Four of my preseason top 30 Yankees prospects joined the Yankees and exhausted their rookie eligibility this season. (Five of the top ten and six of the top 13 on my 2017 list have since graduated to the Yankees.) As a result, the Yankees had the fourth highest rookie WAR in baseball in 2018.

The New Top Prospect

Up until two and a half weeks ago, the Yankees’ top prospect was LHP Justus Sheffield (season review), who pitched well with Triple-A Scranton this season and struggled during his brief MLB cameo. The Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip last month to land James Paxton, who is essentially what we all hoped Sheffield would one day become. Sheffield still has work to do with his command and that made it unlikely he would contribute to the Yankees as a starter in a significant way in 2019. It also made it easier for the win now Yankees to trade him.

With Sheffield traded the new top prospect in the organization is OF Estevan Florial and almost by default too. All those graduations and trades the last two years have thinned the farm system considerably. That is the cost of doing business. You can either have a great farm system or a great big league team. Having both at the same time is damn near impossible nowadays with the draft and international free agency spending restrictions. I will happily live with a thinned out farm system while the Yankees field a 100-win team in the Bronx.

Anyway, Florial had a difficult season in 2018. He started the year with High-A Tampa, hit .246/.353/.343 (107 wRC+) with one home run in his first 36 games, then went down with wrist surgery. Hamate bone removal sidelined him for seven weeks. Florial wrecked the rookie Gulf Coast League during his rehab assignment (.548/.600/1.000 in nine games), then managed a .263/.355/.375 (112 wRC+) line with two homers in his final 39 games with Tampa. Florial hit a weak .178/.294/.260 in 21 Arizona Fall League games after the season.

The bad news? Well, pretty much all of it. Florial needed wrist surgery and he didn’t perform all that well this season, though it is entirely possible (if not likely) the wrist injury contributed to that. He could’ve been (likely was) playing hurt before surgery, and it usually takes some time to get back to normal after wrist surgery, so yeah. The good news? Florial’s contact numbers improved:

  • 2017 in Low-A: 31.9% strikeouts and 15.2% swings and misses
  • 2018 in High-A: 25.7% strikeouts and 13.1% swings and misses

Florial also improved his walk rate as well, going from 10.5% walks in 2017 to 13.0% walks in 2018, but that doesn’t do much for me. Minor league walk rates are fickle, especially in Single-A ball, where most pitchers are control-challenged. Moving up a level and shaving more than six percentage points off your strikeout rate is not nothing though. Contact is Florial’s biggest weakness — he is a four-tool player and the one tool he lacks is the hit tool, and that is a tantalizing profile with a high bust rate — and hopefully those contact gains this year are real.

The Breakout Prospects

King. (Jason Farmer/Scranton Times-Tribune)

It was a good year for pitching prospects in the farm system. The Yankees don’t have a future ace in the system — there are only a handful of those guys in the minors — but they are loaded with potential starters and depth arms, among them RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (season review). Many of those pitching prospects took a step forward this season and cemented themselves as legitimate big league prospects who may not be more than a year or two away from the show.

Statistically, the biggest breakout prospect in the system this year was RHP Mike King, who came over from the Marlins in last winter’s Caleb Smith/Garrett Cooper roster shuffle trade. King rose three levels this season and finished the year with Triple-A Scranton, posting a 1.79 ERA (2.76 FIP) with 24.4% strikeouts and 4.7% walks in a whopping 161.1 innings. King is a fastball command guy whose secondary stuff is good but not great, so he’s a stats before scouting report prospect. Still, have that much success and reach Triple-A, and you’re on the big league radar.

To me, the biggest breakout prospect in the farm system this year was RHP Deivi Garcia. The 19-year-old came into the season as a classic live arm/bad control prospect and suddenly he started throwing strikes. In 14 starts and 74 innings, mostly in Single-A but also one Double-A spot start, Garcia pitched to a 2.55 ERA (2.60 FIP) with 35.5% strikeouts and 6.8% walks. That is the fifth highest strikeout rate and fourth highest K-BB% rate among the 902 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings in the minors this year, and the best marks among teenagers.

Garcia is not the biggest guy at 5-foot-10 and 163 lbs., though he still has room to grow, and even if he can’t handle a starter’s workload long-term, his fastball/curveball combination is plenty good enough for the bullpen. He’s a high spin rate guy — the curveball has reportedly been clocked at 3,000+ rpm and that is super duper elite — and his changeup is better than you’d think. Garcia figuring out how to throw strikes this season is really exciting. This was his breakout year in the organization. Next season might be his breakout year on the global prospect map.

One of my favorite prospects in the system is RHP Roansy Contreras, a just turned 19-year-old kid who more than held his own when pushed to Low-A Charleston late in the season. Contreras had a 2.42 ERA (3.70 FIP) with 24.0% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 12 starts and 63.1 innings this season, mostly with the RiverDogs but also some with Short Season Staten Island. A teenager with three quality pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and command and pitching know-how deserves more prospect love. Roansy has a chance to be awfully good.

RHP Trevor Stephan and RHP Garrett Whitlock, two 2017 draftees, carved up Single-A hitters this summer and reached Double-A. Stephan had a 3.69 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 7.3% walks in 124.1 total innings this year. He’s a stuff guy with mid-90s gas and a hard slider. Whitlock is more of a pitchability guy with four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup). He had a 1.86 ERA (3.01 FIP) with 24.9% strikeouts and 8.4% walks in 120.2 innings this year. King and Whitlock had the second lowest and fourth lowest ERAs, respectively, among the 510 pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in the minors this year.

Thanks to some mechanical tweaks IF Brandon Wagner swatted 21 home runs this season after hitting 19 total from 2015-17. His ground ball rates the last four years: 51.4%, 46.5%, 45.5%, 35.6%. Hmmm. Wagner was far better with High-A Tampa (.270/.376/.510 and 154 wRC+) than Double-A Trenton (.262/.290/.346 and 116 wRC+) this year, but he’s a left-handed hitter with some thump who can play first, third, and a little second. The Yankees rolled the dice and left him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft, which I don’t think is a big deal. Even if he gets picked, he’ll probably come back. I’m curious to see whether the power and air ball tendencies stick this year.

The International Arrivals

The Yankees spent a lot of money during the 2017-18 international signing period — they had some cash to spend after getting spurned by Shohei Ohtani — and they brought many of those 2017-18 international signees stateside this past season. Usually these kids spend a year cutting their teeth in the Dominican Summer League, even the high-profile ones, but not this year. The Yankees had many of them make their pro debuts in the rookie Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues. That’s quite a jump.

OF Everson Pereira received a $1.5M bonus last July and the Yankees sent him right to Rookie Pulaski, where he hit .263/.322/.389 (88 wRC+) with three homers and a 32.8% strikeout rate in 41 games. The numbers are not good, obviously, but he was essentially a high school junior playing against college kids fresh out of the draft. “He doesn’t have any 70- or 80-grade tools, but some scouts were confident enough to put future plus grades on his hit, run and raw power already. They also saw a (plus) defender in center field,” said a recent Baseball America scouting report. Periera may be a year way from top 100 prospect status.

The Yankees gave OF Antonio Cabello a $1.35M bonus with their leftover Ohtani money and they immediately moved him from catcher to center field. He’s a very good runner and a good athlete, and he was rough behind the plate defensively, so it made sense to move him to center. He can be an asset out there and the bat will be ready long before his defense at catcher. Cabello hit .308/.427/.522 (168 wRC+) with five homers, a 20.8% strikeout rate, and a 14.8% walk rate in 46 GCL games, and his hitting acumen has drawn Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto comparisons. Huh. Cabello dislocated his non-throwing shoulder diving for a ball late in the season and needed surgery, but he’s expected back early next year. Bummer, but the tools are incredibly exciting.

OF Raimfer Salinas received $1.85M in leftover Ohtani money last year and he’s more tooled up than Cabello. He’s a standout defensive center fielder with excellent bat speed and power potential from the right side. Salinas played only eleven GCL games this year because he damaged a finger ligament on a slide, but he’ll be ready to go next year. 2B Ezequiel Duran signed for a mere $10,000 last July and he stunk with Pulaski this year, hitting .201/.251/.311 (48 wRC+) with a 27.7% strikeout rate in 53 games, but he’s an exit velocity monster who’s been praised for his innate hitting ability. Duran wouldn’t be the first guy to figure it out after a poor pro debut.

OF Anthony Garcia ($500,000 bonus) is built like a tank (6-foot-5 and 204 lbs.) and he led the GCL with ten homers in only 44 games this summer. He also struck out in 40.6% (!) of his plate appearances, but a switch-hitter with this kind of power? That’s worth a $500,000 roll of the dice all day, every day. SS Roberto Chirinos ($900,000) is a slick-fielding shortstop with good bat-to-ball skills. He got the bat knocked out of his hands a bit in the GCL though (.238/.289/.337 and 79 wRC+). Pereira and Salinas are 17. Cabello, Garcia, and Chirinos all recently turned 18. Duran is 19. These dudes are the next wave of top prospects, especially Pereira, Cabello, and Salinas.

The Trade Chips

Rogers. (Lindsey Wasson/Getty)

The Yankees had an active trade deadline this year and, more recently, they used Sheffield as the headliner in the Paxton trade. Also sent to Seattle were RHP Erik Swanson and OF Dom Thompson-Williams. Swanson had a 3.86 ERA (3.64 FIP) with 26.8% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 72.1 Triple-A innings this year and he has a classic back-end starter profile as a fastball/slider/changeup guy. Thompson-Williams became a launch angle guy this year and hit .299/.363/.546 (157 wRC+) with 22 homers in 100 Single-A games. He hit six homers from 2016-17. Swanson’s a nice depth arm. I’m curious to see how the launch angle thing works for Thompson-Williams in Double-A this year. Both guys are nice prospects who were expendable to the Yankees.

At the actual trade deadline, the Yankees shipped three pitching prospects to the Orioles for Zach Britton: RHP Cody Carroll, LHP Josh Rogers, and RHP Dillon Tate (season reviews). Tate is easily the best prospect of the three and he still has work to do to refine his command. He had a 3.38 ERA (3.78 FIP) before the trade and a 5.75 ERA (4.14 FIP) after the trade, all in the Double-A Eastern League. Being a pitcher in need of development in the Orioles system is a bad place to be. Poor Dillon. OF Billy McKinney (season review) was sent to the Blue Jays in the J.A. Happ trade along with Brandon Drury. He hit .226/.299/.495 (120 wRC+) with Triple-A Scranton before the trade while repeating the level. Eh.

In late August the Yankees used IF Abi Avelino and RHP Juan De Paula to get Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. Avelino bounced between Double-A and Triple-A for the second straight season and hit .287/.333/.446 (117 wRC+) with 15 homers in 123 games before the trade, which represents the best season of his career. Avelino is a classic utility type who went 3-for-11 (.273) as a September call-up with San Francisco. De Paula had a 1.71 ERA (3.46 FIP) with 23.4% strikeouts in 47.1 innings before the trade. He repeated Short Season Staten Island as a 21-year-old, which was kinda weird to me. I get the feeling the Yankees were down on the kid, which probably led to the trade.

The Yankees turned longtime organizational arm LHP Caleb Frare into international bonus money in a trade with the White Sox in July. The 25-year-old had a 0.81 ERA (2.23 FIP) with 33.3% strikeouts and 8.6% walks in 44.2 relief innings, almost all at Double-A before the trade, then he struck out nine in seven innings as a September call-up with Chicago. Good for him. Oft-injured RHP Drew Finley went to the Dodgers for Tim Locastro a few weeks ago. Finley’s father works in Los Angeles’ front office, so the trade is something of a homecoming for him.

Aside from Tate, the best prospect the Yankees traded at the deadline this year is little known RHP Luis Rijo. He went to the Twins in the Lance Lynn trade with Tyler Austin. The 20-year-old had a 2.77 ERA (2.50 FIP) with 19.5% strikeouts and 1.5% walks in 39 innings before the trade and a 1.27 ERA (3.85 FIP) with 20.5% strikeouts and 4.8% walks in 21.1 innings after the trade, all in short season leagues. Rijo is a fastball/curveball/changeup guy and Baseball America recently said “his tremendous feel for locating the baseball should give him a chance to become a backend starter.” Having a multitude of Luis Rijos in the system to use as trade deadline fodder is an underrated strength of the farm system. The Yankees are loaded with these guys.

The Busted Prospects

“Busted” is probably too harsh here, but, as always, several prospects in the system had tough 2018 seasons. There are always going to be injuries and poor performances. That’s baseball. RHP Freicer Perez struggled in six starts with High-A Tampa (21 runs and 19 walks in 25 innings) before having season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his shoulder. The good news is his rotator cuff and labrum (and capsule) were not damaged. The bad news is 2018 was a lost season for Perez, one of the better pitching prospects in the system.

RHP Albert Abreu, the best right-handed pitching prospect in the system coming into the season, missed more time with elbow problems and posted a 5.20 ERA (4.75 FIP) with 22.7% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 72.2 innings at mostly High-A. Abreu has really good stuff — it’s an upper-90s fastball with a knockout curveball — but he’s thrown only 126 innings in two years since coming over in the Brian McCann trade, and we’ve yet to see him truly dominant for an extended period of time. Abreu has ability but he’s just kinda spinning his wheels right now.

RHP Luis Medina stayed healthy all season but lordy was it bad. The 19-year-old threw 36 innings with Rookie Pulaski and pitched to a 6.25 ERA (6.46 FIP) with 25.5% strikeouts and 25.0% walks. That is 47 strikeouts and 46 walks in 36 innings. Yuuup. Medina’s stuff is electric — it’s a Dellin Betances caliber fastball and breaking ball — and he has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the organization. But the poor kid has no idea where the ball is going right now. Like Dellin, he’s gonna be a long-term project.

The two best middle infield prospects in the organization, SS Thairo Estrada and SS Kyle Holder, had brutal seasons. Estrada got shot during a robbery in January and also battled wrist and back trouble during the season. He was limited to 18 regular season games and had the bullet removed from his hip in June. Thairo did heal up in time to play in the Arizona Fall League. Holder fractured a vertebrae in Spring Training and missed two months, and then missed three weeks with a concussion later in the season. He also went home for two weeks at midseason after his brother passed away. Holder played 48 games this year.

3B Dermis Garcia continued to flash big power (15 homers in 88 Low-A games) and big swing-and-miss issues (30.6% strikeouts), and the Yankees had him throw some bullpen sessions to see how he looked on the mound. Dermis never did appear in a game as a pitcher though. SS Hoy Jun Park had a much better season that you may realize — he hit .258/.387/.349 (122 wRC+) with 18 steals and nearly as many walks (16.2%) as strikeouts (16.4%) in 103 High-A games — but the Yankees are still waiting for the $1.2M bonus kid to take that big step forward developmentally.

RHP Chance Adams (season review) underwhelmed while repeating Triple-A (4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP) and is at something of a career crossroads. Early next season might be his last chance to prove he can hack it as a starter. The Yankees have kept him at arm’s length thus far — his lone big league start was an emergency spot start when Happ went down with hand, foot, and mouth disease. RHP Domingo Acevedo (season review) again battled injuries and was limited to 69.1 innings.

Other Notable Prospects

Almost exactly one year to the day after being selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, RHP Clarke Schmidt completed his Tommy John surgery rehab and made his pro debut. He managed a 3.09 ERA (2.61 FIP) with 33.0% strikeouts and 6.6% walks in 23.1 closely monitored innings in his return, and by all accounts his stuff looked pretty good. Like his pre-Tommy John surgery stuff, basically. Schmidt’s season came to an end in late August with what has been reported as a non-arm injury. Not sure what’s going on there.

RHP Matt Sauer, last year’s second round pick, had a weird season with Short Season Staten Island, statistically. He threw more strikes than I expected (6.4% walks) and missed way fewer bats than I expected (15.9% strikeouts and 7.1% swings and misses). The Yankees helped Sauer improve his delivery and tempo and it’s possible this year’s statistical weirdness can be attributed to him adjusting to his new mechanics. I dunno. We’ll see what happens next year.

RHP Nick Green is one of my favorite prospects in the system. I find him fascinating. He has this funky cutter/sinker hybrid fastball that helped him lead the minors with a 66.4% ground ball rate (min. 130 IP) by nearly five percentage points this season. Green doesn’t have much else to work with aside from the, uh, cut-sinker (?), but if you’re only going to have one pitch, a dominant ground ball (cut-)sinker is a good pitch to have. Green threw 132.2 innings with a 3.32 ERA (4.28 FIP) with 17.7% strikeouts and 11.1% walks this season, with most of that coming with High-A Tampa.

Easy to overlook in the pitching ranks is RHP Nick Nelson, who quietly sits in the mid-to-upper-90s with his fastball and features a hammer power curveball. This season he threw 121.1 innings, mostly at High-A Tampa, with a 3.55 ERA (3.12 FIP) and high walk (12.1%) and strikeout (27.5%) rates. Nelson had the 37th most strikeouts (144) and also the 27th most walks (63) in the minors this year. I’m not sure the control or third pitch will ever be there for him to start long-term. I sure am interested to see what Nelson can do in short one-inning relief bursts though.

OF Isiah Gilliam might belong in the “Busted Prospects” section — again, “busted” may be too harsh — after hitting .256/.313/.397 (103 wRC+) with 13 homers in 125 High-A games this year. He had a 137 wRC+ with 21.7% strikeouts and 10.8% walks in Low-A last season. This season it was a 103 wRC+ with 29.0% strikeouts and 6.9% walks in High-A. SS Diego Castillo didn’t hit much with High-A Tampa (.260/.307/.324 and 83 wRC+) but he makes a ton of contact (9.1% strikeouts and 6.1% swings and misses) and can play the hell out of shortstop. I hope the bat catches up to the glove soon.

RHP Luis Gil and RHP Juan Then are on opposite ends of the pitching prospect spectrum in terms of style. Gil is a straight grip it and rip it guy who touched 101 mph this season and registers strong spin rates on his curveball. The 20-year-old struck out 68 batters in 46 short season innings this year. He also walked 31. Then, 18, already has three good pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a plan on the mound. The kid is 6-foot-1 and 155 lbs. right now and the Yankees are hoping his low-90s heater becomes a mid-to-upper-90s heater as he matures. Then had a 2.70 ERA (3.22 FIP) with 21.5% strikeouts and 5.6% walks in 50 GCL innings in 2018.

RHP Stephen Tarpley (season review) led the minors with a 68.1% ground ball rate (min. 65 IP) this season and earned himself both a September call-up and a spot on the ALDS roster. RHP Joe Harvey was untouchable as Triple-A Scranton’s closer this year, pitching to a 1.66 ERA (2.49 FIP) with 28.5% strikeouts and 9.8% walks in 54.1 innings for the RailRiders. The Yankees added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft last month. We’re going to see these two dudes in the big league bullpen next year, even if they’re only shuttle guys.

The 2018 Draft

Last season’s 91-71 record gave the Yankees the 23rd overall pick in the 2018 draft, which they used on C Anthony Seigler (prospect profile). He’s the best prospect the Yankees drafted this year (duh) followed by second rounder C Josh Breaux (prospect profile) and fourth rounder RHP Frank German (prospect profile). Here are my Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps.

Among the late round picks, RHP Rodney Hutchison (sixth round) created some buzz right before the draft because his fastball ticked up and he showed an improved slider. He had a 1.97 ERA (3.02 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.4%), walk (4.7%), and ground ball (64.4%) rates in 32 innings with Short Season Staten Island in his pro debut. RHP Tanner Myatt (11th round) opened some eyes with his 97-99 mph heater and hard slider after turning pro. He struck out 22 in 18.1 mostly rookie ball innings.

While the high picks like Seigler and Breaux get all the attention and understandably so — my money is on Seigler being the consensus No. 1 prospect in the system at this time next year — the late rounds are where the Yankees have built their farm system depth. Guys like Rogers (11th), Whitlock (18th round), and Carroll (22nd round) were all unheralded Day Three picks in recent years who developed into solid prospects and, in Rogers’ and Carroll’s case, trade chips. A year from now we might be talking about Hutchison and Myatt as the next late round success stories.

The Best of the Rest

The Yankees have more minor leaguers under contract that any other team. That doesn’t necessarily mean they have more prospects. It just means they have more minor leaguers. As J.J. Cooper explained in August, the Yankees have nine minor league affiliates and thus can have roughly 340 players under contract. Most other organizations only have six or seven minor league affiliates, and can carry around 290 contracts. Those extra 50 (!) roster spots mean the Yankees have more innings and at-bats to play with, and more spots for lottery tickets.

Although the farm system isn’t nearly as robust now as it was a year or two ago, the Yankees do still have a pretty deep system, especially in arms. Here are the last few notables worth mentioning as part of our farm system review:

  • OF Trey Amburgey: Righty hitter and thrower has some pop and authored an underwhelming .258/.300/.418 (97 wRC+) line with Double-A Trenton this year.
  • SS Oswaldo Cabrera: The tools are all there but the production is not. Cabrera hit .229/.273/.320 (70 wRC+) with a 12.5% strikeout rate with Low-A Charleston this year.
  • RHP Rony Garcia: Cutter specialist reached High-A at age 20 this year and posted solid strikeout (21.0%) and walk (5.5%) rates in 119 innings. Deivi pulled away as the system’s best Garcia though.
  • RHP Yoendrys Gomez: Mid-90s fastball and a rainbow curveball produced a 2.08 ERA (3.57 FIP) and 25.8% strikeouts in 47.2 rookie ball innings this summer. Someone to watch.
  • RHP Nolan Martinez: Finally stayed healthy and threw 61.2 innings with 3.36 ERA (4.19 FIP) this year. He threw 20.2 innings total from 2016-17. Next year will be a big one.
  • OF Pablo Olivares: Personal favorite hit .322/.391/.442 (142 wRC+) in 70 Single-A games before an unknown injury ended his season in July. That’s too bad.
  • RHP Glenn Otto: Last year’s fifth rounder showed a dynamite fastball/curveball combination in his two starts before needing season-ending surgery to treat a blood clot in his shoulder.
  • OF Alex Palma: Built on last year’s breakout with a .299/.348/.459 (132 wRC+) line in 52 High-A games. He suffered a season-ending injury in an outfield collision in July.

I’m looking forward to full seasons of Gomez and Martinez next year and I want to see how Olivares, Otto, and Palma rebound from their injuries. Especially Otto and especially especially Olivares. He’s not a star prospect like the stat line would lead you to believe, but he can do everything well. Just a solid all-around ballplayer. Had he not gotten hurt, the 20-year-old Olivares might’ve finished the season in Double-A and been added to the 40-man roster after the season. Instead, the Yankees are gambling no team will take an injured Single-A outfielder in the Rule 5 Draft.

What’s Next?

As was the case last year, the farm system now is worse than it was in March, and for good reason. The Yankees graduated two high-end prospects to the big leagues in Torres and Andujar, and they used several others in trades, most notably Sheffield and Tate. If the farm system is going to take a hit, you want it to take a hit because guys are graduating and being traded for MLB help, and that’s what happened with the Yankees.

Barring a fire sale — the Yankees might get prospects for Sonny Gray but otherwise they aren’t selling veterans anytime soon — it is awfully tough for the Yankees to build a farm system now. They have back of the first round draft picks (30th overall in 2019) and the draft and international spending restrictions level the playing field. The Yankees added some very exciting international kids (Pereira, Cabello) and new draftees (Seigler) to the system this year. It’ll take a year or two before they develop into foundational prospects, however. Fortunately the farm system has already done its part strengthening the MLB team.

Filed Under: Minors Tagged With: 2018 Season Review, Abi Avelino, Albert Abreu, Alex Palma, Anthony Garcia, Anthony Seigler, Antonio Cabello, Brandon Wagner, Caleb Frare, Clarke Schmidt, Cody Carroll, Deivi Garcia, Dermis Garcia, Dillon Tate, Dom Thompson-Williams, Drew Finley, Erik Swanson, Estevan Florial, Everson Pereira, Ezequiel Duran, Frank German, Freicer Perez, Garrett Whitlock, Glenn Otto, Hoy Jun Park, Isiah Gilliam, Joe Harvey, Josh Breaux, Josh Rogers, Juan De Paula, Juan Then, Kyle Holder, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Luis Rijo, Matt Sauer, Mike King, Nick Green, Nick Nelson, Nolan Martinez, Oswaldo Cabrera, Pablo Olivares, Raimfer Salinas, Roansy Contreras, Roberto Chirinos, Rodney Hutchison, Rony Garcia, Tanner Myatt, Thairo Estrada, Trevor Stephan, Trey Amburgey, Yoendrys Gomez

Prospect Profile: Josh Breaux

November 28, 2018 by Mike

(Eric Jenks/Times Union)

Josh Breaux | C

Background
Breaux turned 21 last month and he grew up outside Houston in Tomball, Texas. He hit .485/.528/.818 as a senior at Tomball High School but wasn’t drafted in 2016. Breaux headed to McLennan Community College in Waco.

As a freshman with the Highlanders, Breaux authored a .401/.473/.773 batting line with 18 doubles and 19 homers in 59 games, and he also struck out 22 with a 4.73 ERA in 13.1 relief innings. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 301st best prospect in the 2017 draft class. The Astros selected Breaux in the 36th round but couldn’t get him to sign.

After the season Breaux headed to the Cape Cod League and more than held his own with wood bats against elite college pitching. He hit .271/.310/.474 with nine doubles and six homers in 35 games for the Falmouth Commodores. Despite that, Baseball America (subs. req’d) did not rank him among the top 50 Cape Cod League prospects that summer.

Breaux returned to McLennan for his sophomore year and hit .404/.532/.831 with 14 doubles and 18 homers in 56 games this past spring. He didn’t see much action on the mound, throwing only four scoreless and hitless innings with eight strikeouts. MLB.com ranked Breaux as the 71st best prospect in the 2018 draft class. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him 88th.

The Yankees selected Breaux with their second round pick, the 61st overall selection, in this year’s draft. Special advisor Nick Swisher, the ultimate baseball bro, announced the Breaux pick during the MLB Network draft broadcast. Part of me thinks the Yankees did this intentionally.

As a draft-eligible sophomore slated to transfer to Arkansas, Breaux had some leverage, and he turned it into an overslot $1.5M bonus. Slot money for the 61st pick was just under $1.1M. Breaux signed about a week after the draft, so this wasn’t a prolonged negotiation.

Pro Debut
After a quick three-game tune-up in the rookie Gulf Coast League, the Yankees assigned Breaux to the short season Staten Island Yankees, where he hit .280/.295/.370 (94 wRC+) in 27 games around a minor hamstring injury. Breaux didn’t hit a home run in his pro debut, but he did bang nine doubles in those 27 games. The hamstring was a non-issue during Instructional League after the season.

Scouting Report
Built solidly at 6-foot-1 and 220 lbs., Breaux looks the part of a power-hitting catcher, and power is his calling card offensively. He projects to have well-above-average raw power from the right side and he sells out to get to it. Breaux takes a big maximum effort swing and, as a result, he’ll swing and miss quite a bit, as his 16.1% swing-and-miss rate with Staten Island shows. When he connects though, gosh, the ball tends to go a long way.

Breaux is an aggressive hacker at the plate — he walked only three times in his 27 games with Staten Island (2.9%) — who was able to keep his strikeout rate (18.4%) down during his pro debut. The approach is a long-term concern though. Breaux has to develop more plate discipline and also remain more controlled at the plate. He doesn’t have to take a max effort swing to drive the ball. Once he learns to tone it down a notch, he’ll take a step forward as a hitter.

While the power potential is exciting, Breaux’s single best tool is his throwing arm. He regularly sat in the upper-90s in one-inning stints in college and touched 100 mph on occasion. Breaux was a legitimate pro prospect as a pitcher but he prefers to catch and the Yankees will keep him behind the plate. If the plate discipline never comes around and catching doesn’t work out, getting up on the mound could be an option down the road.

Breaux’s arm is obviously a weapon behind the plate, and he’s improved in the other aspects of being a catcher since his high school days. He’s a good receiver and he moves well blocking the ball. All those young power arms the Yankees have in the lower minors will give him a good workout behind the plate going forward. Breaux is a good athlete who runs well, enough that he could move to the outfield down the line, if necessary.

“Josh Breaux is another guy with a really good makeup. He’s still young as a junior college guy, but his arm is huge and he has raw power. His ability to hit has really matured this year,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said after the draft. “With Breaux, we think we have an impact tools guy who’s a catcher. You’re talking about a big, strong player who shows up and people understand right away why you took him.”

2019 Outlook
I have to think Breaux is ticketed for Low-A Charleston next season, where he very well could end up sharing catching duties with first round pick Anthony Seigler a la Gary Sanchez and John Ryan Murphy back in the day. Breaux starting the season with Charleston and then moving up to High-A Tampa at midseason — allowing Seigler to catch full-time with the RiverDogs — would seem to be the ideal scenario. There’s always a chance the Yankees hold Breaux back in Extended Spring Training because catching is hard and they like to give those guys extra attention, but that would surprise me.

My Take
I am intrigued but not in love. Catchers with power are forever cool with me, especially when they have a rocket arm, but Breaux has some very real plate discipline issues to address, and that’s never easy. Hopefully things click for Breaux and he learns how to better control the strike zone, because if he does, he could become a truly elite hitter at his position. If not, upper level pitchers will pick him apart. That said, quality catchers are hard to find, and Breaux has the tools to remain behind the plate, even if his plate discipline means he becomes a Miguel Olivo clone long-term.

Filed Under: Prospect Profiles Tagged With: Josh Breaux

DotF: Florial continues to rake on rehab assignment

July 17, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Some quick notes:

  • C Anthony Seigler, this year’s first round pick, has not played since July 4th, though Josh Norris says he’s not hurt, so that’s good. Not sure why he hasn’t played lately though. Kinda weird. UPDATE: Norris says Seigler has a minor hamstring issue. So there you go.
  • C Josh Breaux, this year’s second round pick, is injured, however. He’s been out since July 11th with a minor hamstring injury and is day-to-day. Breaux’s not even on the disabled list.
  • RHP Garrett Whitlock has been promoted to Double-A Trenton, the team announced. He has a 1.55 ERA (2.24 FIP) in 87.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A so far this season.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (8-4 win over Toledo)

  • SS Abi Avelino: 2-5, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 K
  • RF Billy McKinney: 2-5, 1 2B, 1 RBI
  • 3B Brandon Drury: 0-2, 1 R, 3 BB, 1 K — 7-for-53 (.132) in his last 14 Triple-A games
  • DH Mike Ford: 1-5
  • RHP Chance Adams: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 3/3 GB/FB — 47 of 82 pitches were strikes (57%) … shrugs
  • RHP Cody Carroll: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K — nine of 12 pitches were strikes … 2.50 ERA and 51/16 K/BB in 39.2 innings

[Read more…]

Filed Under: Down on the Farm Tagged With: Anthony Seigler, Josh Breaux

2018 Draft Signings: Breaux, Green, German, Bies

June 13, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Bro, it’s Breaux. (@MLBDraft)

The 2018 draft signing deadline is Friday, July 6th this year, and already the Yankees have signed nine of their top ten picks. The club made the announcement this morning. The one holdout is UNC RHP Rodney Hutchison, the team’s sixth round pick. He’ll sign once North Carolina’s season ends. They’re currently in the College World Series.

Our Draft Pool Tracker page is now live, so you can keep tabs on the Yankees’ bonus pool situation there. The Draft Pool page is available at all times under the Resources tab. You can see all of the team’s picks right here. Here are my Day One, Day Two, and Day Three draft recaps, and here are the latest draft signings.

Breaux gets $1.5M

Texas JuCo C Josh Breaux (2nd round) has signed, the Yankees announced. Here’s a photo of the signing, if you’re interested. Jim Callis says Breaux received an overslot $1.5M bonus. Slot money for the 61st overall pick is $1,086,900. MLB.com ranked Breaux as the 71st best prospect in the draft class. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Breaux has well above-average raw power to all fields and an aggressive right-handed swing that generates uncommon bat speed … Scouts were skeptical of Breaux’s ability to stay at catcher when they saw him as a freshman, but he has improved defensively and projects as at least an adequate receiver. His arm strength is an asset behind the plate, though the Arkansas commit needs to improve his throwing accuracy.

Breaux hit .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs and more walks (48) than strikeouts (32) in 56 games as a sophomore this spring, and he was slated to transfer to Arkansas, so he had some leverage during contract talks. That led to the overslot bonus. Between Breaux and first rounder Anthony Seigler, the Yankees addressed their lack of catcher prospect depth in a hurry.

Green gets $1M

Tennessee HS OF Ryder Green (3rd round) has also signed, the Yankees announced. Here’s video of the signing. Jim Callis says Green received a $1M bonus while Jon Heyman says it’s $997,500. Either way, it’s nearly double the $576,400 slot value for the 97th overall pick. MLB.com ranked Green as the 81st best prospect in the draft class. Here’s part of their scouting report:

Green has physical strength and plenty of bat speed from the right side of the plate. He has had some swing-and-miss issues in the past but is making more consistent contact this spring. That bodes well for his ability to fully tap into his power potential, which ranks among the best in the 2018 high school crop … He’s an average runner out of the batter’s box and quicker once he gets going. He’ll have to move from center to right field at the next level and has the arm for it

Why the overslot bonus? Because Green was committed to Vanderbilt, which is a very tough commitment to break, historically. The Yankees gave Dellin Betances a $1M bonus as an eighth round pick back in the day to buy him away from Vanderbilt, for example.

The discrepancy between Callis and Heyman is essentially an accounting trick. The standard minor league player contract includes $2,500 in bonuses so easily attainable that teams were reporting them as part of the signing bonus. Teams aren’t doing that now, and it’s saving them a little something against the bonus pool.

German, Bies sign below slot

Earlier this week we heard the Yankees had deals in place with North Florida RHP Frank German (4th round) and Gonzaga RHP Daniel Bies (7th round), and, earlier today, the Yankees officially announced the signings. Jim Callis has the bonus information:

  • German: $350,000 bonus (slot for the 127th pick was $430,400)
  • Bies: $150,000 bonus (slot for the 217th pick was $194,000)

I’m surprised German signed that much below slot. I thought he would be a slot money guy or very close to it. MLB.com ranked him as the 191st best prospect in the draft class and said he “has a solid three-pitch mix that points to a future as a starting pitcher at the next level.”

As for Bies, I was surprised to see him get so much because I was under the impression he was a college senior, but it turns out he was a redshirt junior with another year of eligibility. College seniors typically sign for about $10,000. Sometimes even less. Bies was able to leverage that extra year of eligibility into six figures. Good for him.

The Yankees also announced the signings of Troy OF Brandon Lockridge (5th round), Bucknell RHP Connor Van Hoose (8th round), Grand Canyon RHP Mick Vorhof (9th round), and UNC Charlotte LHP Josh Maciejewski (10th round). The deals had been previously reportedly, and now they’re official. Lockridge received a $300,000 bonus. Not sure about anyone else yet. Van Hoose, Vorhof, and Maciejewski are all college seniors who likely signed well below slot.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: 2018 Draft, Daniel Bies, Frank German, Josh Breaux, Ryder Green

2018 Draft: Yankees double up on catchers on Day One

June 5, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Seigler. (Frank Franklin II/AP)

The first day of the 2018 draft is in the books. A total of 78 picks were made Monday night, during Day One of the draft, and among them were the Yankees’ first (23rd overall) and second (61st overall) round picks. Teams do not draft for need, especially not in the first round, but the Yankees have a hole at catcher in the farm system and they doubled up on backstops with their first two 2018 picks. Let’s review the two Day One selections.

Yankees stick to their strength with Seigler

Few teams in baseball have had as much success developing catchers in recent years as the Yankees. Gary Sanchez is already a top tier catcher, Francisco Cervelli has been a solid starter since being traded away, John Ryan Murphy is emerging as a starter with the Diamondbacks this year, and Austin Romine is either suddenly awesome or a perfectly acceptable backup. Don’t forget Luis Torrens spending last season in the big leagues as a Rule 5 Draft backup too. That’s a lot catching talent to come out of the system these last few seasons.

So, with first round pick Georgia HS C Anthony Seigler, the Yankees stuck to their strengths and added another catcher. They know how to develop ’em, so why not? Seigler sure does check a lot of boxes. He’s a switch-hitter — and a switch-thrower when he pitched in high school, so that’s cool — who has good contact ability and a sound approach, plus he’ll hit the ball out of the park occasionally. And when he does, he can show off his elite bat flip tool.

Anthony Seigler knows how to stylize a damn home run. 80 grade. Big fan. (video from Vincent Cervino of Perfect Game) #yankees pic.twitter.com/XgzzLVc9p5

— Sung Min Kim (@sung_minkim) June 5, 2018

Furthermore, the 18-year-old Seigler is a good receiver and a good athlete behind the plate, good enough that he’s played second and third bases on occasion. He’s a very good thrower — Seigler throws righty when behind the plate, because duh — who has all the tools necessary to be a strong defender. On top of that, Seigler was lauded as having some of the best makeup and work ethic in the draft class. He’s a very hard worker and a total grinder on the field. If he were a a non-catcher position player, his uniform would never be clean.

“The thing that attracts you to Seigler is that he has the tools to catch, and he’s a switch-hitter, which makes him a unique commodity,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer in a statement. “He’s showing power from both sides of the plate, has really great instincts for baseball, a plus-arm and runs well for a catcher. On top of that, he’s proven to be versatile, with his ability to play other positions. Seigler’s got top of the line makeup. We’re very happy about him.”

Catchers tend to get drafted higher than projected, and, if you take the pre-draft rankings to heart, that’s what happened here. The various scouting publications all had Seigler as the 40-something best draft prospect available — Baseball America (subs. req’d), Keith Law (subs. req’d), and MLB.com ranked Seigler as the 41st, 43rd, and 46th best prospect in the draft class, respectively — yet the Yankees took him 23rd. That’s because catchers are very hard to find and teams jump all over guys who they think can do it long-term. (Seigler was the second catcher drafted this year behind No. 2 pick Joey Bart.)

The Yankees know catching. They didn’t draft Seigler because the system is light on catching prospects — it’s too difficult to project needs three or four years into the future, when most of these kids will be MLB ready, so you’re doing yourself a disservice if you draft for need in the first round — they drafted him because quality catchers are hard to find and because they believe he had the best long-term potential of anyone still on the board. Switch-hitting catchers are my jam. I really like the pick.

A different kind of catcher

By and large, the MLB Network draft broadcast is tedious and tough to watch. I get why MLB is trying to make the draft a thing, but the MLB draft is not a thing and will probably never will be a thing. None of these kids is going to step right onto their big league team’s roster and college baseball is not nearly as popular as college football or college basketball. Casual fans see these kids they’ve never heard of at the draft and they might not see them again for four years. Good for MLB for trying. But the MLB draft is never going to be popular among non-diehards.

The MLB Network draft broadcast is always difficult to sit through, but last night it paid off in a big way. Why? Because the Yankees had the always energetic Nick Swisher, who is a special advisor to Brian Cashman, announce their second round pick. The pick? Texas JuCo C Josh Breaux, pronounced Bro. Swisher got to announce a kid named Bro. Too perfect. (Also, let’s not sleep on the fact Josh has a brother named Joe. Joe Bro.)

Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked Breaux as the top junior college player in the draft class coming into the spring and, in their latest rankings, they had him as the 83rd best prospect in the draft overall. MLB.com had him 71st. More or less where the Yankees grabbed him given how little usually separates draft prospects beyond the first 15-20 picks or so.

Seigler and Breaux are very different players. Seigler is a switch-hitter with a well-rounded game. Breaux was a two-way player in college — he’s run his fastball as high as 100 mph off the mound — who, as a catcher, is reminiscent of former Yankees farmhand Peter O’Brien. He has big right-handed power and questionable plate discipline, and he has work to do to remain behind the plate.

There are a few key differences between Breaux and O’Brien, however. First of all, Breaux is already a better defender than O’Brien was at the same point in his career, and he’s made significant strides behind the plate this spring. Secondly, the Yankees drafted Breaux as a sophomore whereas O’Brien was a senior. The Yankees drafted O’Brien a few weeks before his 22nd birthday. Breaux is only 20. Age is on his side.

And third, Breaux has had success with wood bats. He hit .271/.310/.474 with six homers in 35 games against top college competition in the Cape Cod League last summer. O’Brien hit for zero power (.325 SLG) with more strikeouts than you’d like (26.2%) during his summer in the Cape Cod League. The overall skill set — power over hit, sketchy defense — is similar. Breaux is younger than O’Brien was at the time of the draft, however, plus he’s already better with the glove and has fared better with wood bats. That’s not nothing.

Breaux. (Cape Cod Times)

Breaux has more flaws than Seigler, both offensively and defensively, though that comes with the territory when you’re comparing a second rounder to a first rounder. What Breaux has going for him is legitimate above-average power, a rocket arm, and an organization that really knows how to develop catchers. Was he my preferred choice for the second round pick? Nah, but what the hell do I know. Can’t ever go wrong with a catcher with offensive potential though.

“Josh Breaux is another guy with a really good makeup. He’s still young as a junior college guy, but his arm is huge and he has raw power. His ability to hit has really matured this year,” said Oppenheimer. “With Breaux, we think we have an impact tools guy who’s a catcher. You’re talking about a big, strong player who shows up and people understand right away why you took him.”

* * *

Either intentionally or coincidentally, the Yankees grabbed catchers in the first two rounds of the 2018 draft at a time when they’re very short on catchers in the farm system. I don’t think it was intentional. I really don’t. They like well-rounded up-the-middle athletes and that led them to Seigler. They also like dudes with standout tools, and Breaux has two of them in his power and arm. It just so happens both guys filled a glaring organizational need.

Filed Under: Draft Tagged With: 2018 Draft, Anthony Seigler, Josh Breaux

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