Jun
08
Fan Confidence Poll: June 8th, 2009
ByRecord Last Week: 4-2 (38 RS, 27 RA)
Season Record: 33-23 (321RS, 290 RA), 0.5 game lead in AL East
Opponents This Week: vs. Tampa Bay (1 game), @ Boston (3 games), vs. Mets (3 games)
Top stories from last week:
- Joba Chamberlain started the week off with a bang, throwing eight dominant innings in Cleveland to give the team a series win. The Yanks set a Major League record that day by playing error free for their 18th consecutive game, a testament to their improved defense.
- Just a week after winning a three game series in Texas, the Yanks welcomed the Rangers came to the Bronx on Tuesday. The offense welcomed Texas with a 12-3 beatdown in the first game of the series, but Andy Pettitte couldn’t keep it going on Wednesday. Chien-Ming Wang finished up the series with his first start since April 18th, and the team had to bail him out with a late inning rally for the win.
- After a Friday night rain out, the Yankees suffered a disappointing loss on Saturday when Mariano Rivera faltered in the ninth. They rebounded with a late-inning comeback win on Sunday, and ended the week the same way they started it: in first place.
- On the injury front, the Yanks are close to getting some key players back. Brian Bruney was pain free after a Sunday bullpen session and could be back in as little as a week-and-a-half. Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte are rehabbing down in Tampa, while Cody Ransom and Jose Molina each took a step towards returning. We got a little scare when we learned that Joba may have a lingering shoulder issue, but thankfully that got shot down quickly.
- Things went well down on the farm as well. Austin Jackson hit his first homerun of the year on Thursday, and the Yanks’ new top prospect picked up a hit in his first game after a promotion to Double-A Trenton. Unfortunately, it looks like the Yanks will be operating on a budget during this week’s draft.
- Cablevision and the YES also agreed to the first in-market agreement to stream games live to subscribers.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
96 Comments»
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Countdown to Spring Training
Just 2 months and 5 days 'til pitchers and catchers report!
Confidence level: OVER 9000
Confidence level = 10
© tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones, 2009. All rights reserved.
Heh we have the second best record in the MLB and 4 people voted at a 6. You guys were expecting a flawless season huh?
at least no numb nuts voted 1
But their tolls or red Sox fans. Perfectly understandable. The people who voted 6 are not trolls, Yankee “fans” apparently disappointed that we are in first place.
you spoke too soon, there’s a 1 there now.
Possible candidates:
Whitey14 (I iz in ur pole screwin wit ur resultz!)
Arod, all the time
IronHorse (because voting 10 is for gay pansies)
Robert Goulet (remeber him?)
Axl
Benjamin Kabak (he’s a double agent)
Robert Goulet (remember him?)
Now that you mention it…whatever happened to that fine gentleman?
http://www.polyfro.com/images/goulet-ram.jpg
Same thing that happens to all abrasive ignoramuses who come to RAB.
Ooooh absolute power…FEEL IT!
join ze collective or ze die
Still 6 for me.
The BP is still a major concern. They need more than Mo and Aceves. The rest of the BP is a crap shoot. Also, lack of bench depth. Pinch hitting Matsui for Cervelli against a LH Howell on Saturday says all you need to know about the lack of bench depth.
The BP is still a major concern. They need more than Mo and Aceves. The rest of the BP is a crap shoot.
Marte, Bruney, and Melancon will come.
Wait until that fails before pressing the panic button.
Also, lack of bench depth. Pinch hitting Matsui for Cervelli against a LH Howell on Saturday says all you need to know about the lack of bench depth.
No, it doesn’t tell me anything at all. Matsui is a great hitter and even though he’s off this year, he’s still a decent hitter. He’s not Papi-esque.
And this bench thing was been blown out of proportion as a scapegoat to try and show how “bad” the Yankees are.
When Nady and Molina comes back you’ll get you’re “all-mighty” bench that apparently wins ballgames.
Bench >>>>>> Starters
Also:
Hideki Matsui vs. lefties this year: .874 OPS
Hiedki Matsui vs. righties this year: .773 OPS
Matsui also has a career .806 OPS against lefties (obviously, the reverse split doesn’t carry through his career). I have no problem hitting him against a lefty whatsoever.
Also, righties are like 0 for the last 28 against Howell, while LH are hitting over .300.
Great points from all three of you.
“Pinch hitting Matsui for Cervelli against a LH Howell on Saturday says all you need to know about the lack of bench depth.”
No, it just says all you need to know about your disinclination to investigate the rationality behind Girardi’s moves because you have an preconceived agenda against him, Frank.
Funny about uninformed decisions…in my pea brain Godzilla>Cervelli from the start. Who knew?
Also, Howell has been worse against lefties this season:
OBA vs Left .390
OBA vs Right .228
Marte is no different than Veras, Ramirez, Coke or Albaladejo. In other words, unreliable. Bruney has to be healthy and if he is, I agree it’s an upgrade. Melancon is unproven.
As for Matsui, he’s basically doing it on guts. This guys legs are shot, which impacts his ability to drive the ball. He’s not close to the hitter he was. As for the bench, when you are left with Berroa and Pena as you only RH options, that’s not good. True, Nady will be a major upgrade. But like Bruney, that’s assuming he is able to recover from his injury.
Marte is no different than Veras, Ramirez, Coke or Albaladejo. In other words, unreliable.
No, Veras, Ramirez, Coke, and Albaladejo have all been in the majors for a tiny speck of time, respectively. Coming into 2009. Damaso Marte had 8 straight years of an OPS+ north of 100. His career OPS+ is 132. He’s not unreliable, he’s actually exceedingly reliable. He’s one of the few relief pitchers in all of baseball with a reliably good and long track record of quality pitching.
Your statement is incorrect.
Plus, Marte’s problems have all come since he was injured last season. If he’s really recovered when he comes back, presumably, he will be the guy the Yanks traded for last year.
The Marte haters don’t seem to give the guy any slack for being injured.
Precisely.
Damaso Marte, pre-NYY, career:
2002 – 2.83 ERA in 60.1 IP, 159 ERA+, 1.028 WHIP
2003 – 1.58 ERA in 79.2 IP, 292 ERA+, 1.054 WHIP
2004 – 3.42 ERA in 73.2 IP, 138 ERA+, 1.222 WHIP
2005 – 3.77 ERA in 45.1 IP, 119 ERA+, 1.721 WHIP
2006 – 3.70 ERA in 58.1 IP, 120 ERA+, 1.406 WHIP
2007 – 2.38 ERA in 45.1 IP, 183 ERA+, 1.103 WHIP
2008 – 3.47 ERA in 46.2 IP, 119 ERA+, 1.157 WHIP
Damaso Marte, NYY, career:
2008 – 5.40 ERA in 18.1 IP, 82 ERA+, 1.309 WHIP
2009 – 15.19 ERA in 5.1 IP, 30 ERA+, 2.250 WHIP
Now, which dataset looks like the outlier and which looks like the norm, the first 409.1 innings of quality relief work with ERA’s in the 2’s and 3’s and WHIP’s around a single baserunner an inning, or the last 23.2 innings here where he went through an adjustment period, had one bad game where he got shelled that skewed his small sample size results, and has been pitching injured for the last 22% of that small sample size?
I don’t understand facts, statistics, or rational reasoning.
Penis.
To each his own, but I just don’t see how anyone’s confidence can be this low. Best record in the AL, attained by beating the team previously holding the best record. Pitching looks better than it has in years. A 7 would seem to be the floor for the way the team is currently playing.
Also, there’s been good news on the BP in terms of Bruney and Marte progressing. And, as an added bonus, I’m fairly certain we’ll see Phil Hughes tonight one way or another.
Seeing Hughes isn’t necessarily a bonus. That means either Andy is hurt and can’t go and Phil has to step in or Andy is having a rough time in the game.
Not at all. Andy’s not going 9. Andy’s probably not going 8. Phil hasn’t pitched in a week. Mo is in all likelihood unavailable. I’d assume Phil’s finishing the game in any case.
I consistently vote at a 7 because even though the record has changed, and for the better, the roster construction hasn’t, the farm system is still mediocre and management is doing well, but not outstanding. Girardi could end the year with the best team record in baseball and he wouldn’t deserve manager of the year. He’s done a good job, better than last year, but we should be where we are right now.
I’m definately confident, but I want to see the best possible players on the bench and in the bullpen and I want to see them used in the right situations before I go any higher. Veras isn’t deserving to be on this team. Holding on to his streak last year is the type of roster mismanagement that has held us back in the recent past.
Probably the biggest reason I don’t have higher confidence is because even though we’ve had a great streak the last few weeks, we’re still neck and neck with the Sox who have had a less than stellar rotation and are dealing with Papi being baseball’s biggest joke. It looks as if our best over the past few years is even with the Red Sox worst of the past few years.
The bullpen, as of right now, has a slightly better overall ERA than the rotation (4.85-4.88), a slightly better WHIP (1.409-1.432), a better K/9 (8.1-7.1), and a better K/BB (1.99-1.89). The ‘pen also has a lower BAA and OBPA. The ‘pen is definitely righting itself. I don’t expect it to outpich the rotation for the rest of the year, but the ‘pen is settling down.
Also, the relievers dropped their ERA from 6.46 in April to 4.04 in May and now it’s down to 2.35 (huge SSS alert) in June so far. So, why’s the bullpen still such a red flag? I agree it’s probably not as good as it was in May but it’s definitely not as bad as it was in April. Moving forward, pitching overall will continue to be an overall strength for this team.
It’s not as bad because they’re not getting as many innings to pitch so they’ve had less a chance to screw up. When there are innings to get they’re usually going to Aceves whos been performing extremely well. Everyone else hasnt been all that good still it seems.
I already have a lot of confidence in this team, but I’ll have a lot more after taking two of three from Boston this week.
8, wish i could vote 8.5.
Same its been almost every week, so it shall remain unless something truly catastrophic happens.
I’m up to a season high 9.
Like Frank I’m concerned about the bullpen, but see the reinforcements just over the next hill. I’m comfortable with the bench the way it is constructed now. Sure I’d love to have another bat there, but hopefully X is coming back soon.
There is always room for improvement. I want to leave somewhere to go if this team gets really hot again and if a couple more minor leaguers start playing really well.
Holding steady at 10. Will skyrocket to eleventy bajillion when Melvin comes to America.
Will skyrocket to eleventy bajillion when Melvin comes to America.
We all know what’s going to happen to Andy in Sunny Daytona the first time Mike throws a
”Melvin Croussett: 1 IP, zeroes”
namedrop in the GCL Yankees DOTF blurb:
http://bit.ly/Melmas
That’s NSFW, isn’t it.
Meh, depends. It’s objectionably graphic, but it’s a cartoon and not a real person.
If you’re on the fence, I’d say be safe and don’t click on it.
”Melvin Croussett: 1 IP, zeroes”
more like, “melvin Croussett: 1 IP, 3 K’s zeroes”
Get it right!
Fair enough.
And now I’m posed in an awkward stance because I JIZZED… IN… MY PANTS!
I once pushed Megan Fox out of the way to get Melvin Croussett’s autograph.
Okay, now your priorities are getting out of whack.
I tried to get Mike to mention his 2 IP 6 K zeroes game the other day, but alas, he did not.
Melvin’s had a good start to the DSL 2 Season.
Looking forward to when he comes stateside!
Melvin’s had a good start to the DSL 2 Season.
Duh.
In a related story, the sky is blue, water is wet, and trees are made of wood.
i, for one, voted an 8. this team is firing on almost every cylinder right now. i do believe, however, that the series against boston will be very telling of how confident we should be going forward. there are still questions about the team – the bench depth, the bullpen, chien-ming wang. if we can take the series against the red sox i think that shows that the team is for real and can handle pretty much anything going forward.
and to comment on the low votes for the poll: i think the way the it’s questioned leaves it open to interpretation. you mention current roster construction and the farm system. regardless of how the big league team is doing, the farm system still raises a few questions in people. playing devil’s advocate here – maybe the people voting 6′s are concerned about the lack of quality position player prospects in the yankees’ system or the ineffectiveness of brackman and betances as the season goes on. i personally don’t think that’s enough of a reason to be middle of the road about how the team is doing but for all we know these voters are nothing but trolls.
Just to put things in perspective, the only time I might have voted as low as “1″ would have been during the summers of 1990-1991.
The 1′s are obviously trolls. I could see concern over the farm dropping people to a 6, but not all the way to a 1.
I can’t even see that being a rationale for a 6, really. Is the farm perfect? Nope, noone’s is. But for the positions we’ll actually need to fill on the ML club going forward, we’re in pretty good shape.
The TB/Boston series’ are the litmus test of where we are right now. One can get over getting ganked by them in April – even if it was thoroughly demoralizing at the time – but now? Pitching/hitting all in the zone, even with a loss today, a split with the Rays and taking 2 of 3 from the Sox would reassert ourselves in the division. Then we can begin our 2-week vacation against the NL Least during which we should be able to take 10 out of 15 easily.
I’m a 9. I have been for 2 weeks now.
8, keeping it steady until Kelvin De Leon makes his US debut
A solid 8. I am really looking forward to this week of great baseball.
Holding steady at 8, which is where I’ve been all season. Depending on how the draft goes, it may go up to 9 next week.
+1
The draft plus our performance in this next stretch will sway my #.
I’m giving them a ’2′ this week because I think it’s deplorable how they’re slotting a perfectly good 8th inning setup man as a starter. When will this madness end?
Having Joba in the 8th is about as intelligent as going onto a blog for a team you’re not a fan of and voting in their fan confidence poll.
When Ortiz reaches the .300 mark this year.
I can’t tell if he’s being serious or joking here, and that scares me.
I talked to a real-life B-Jobber today, and I was so stunned I couldn’t even form a response. I thought they only existed on teh interwebz. His line was, “If Joe Torre were still managing, we’d be much better off: Hughes would be in the rotation, Joba would be in the bullpen, and Rivera would only come in for save situations.”
Regardless, I vote 9. My only concern is that we’re still in the powerhouse AL East and the competition is much stiffer. Just because we have a great team doesn’t guarantee the playoffs anymore.
Ignore him, he’s a Red Sox troll, he’s admitted as much.
Frankly, I’m shocked he spelled “deplorable” correctly.
“When will this madness end?”
When you finally realize that someone who pitches 200 innings per year is more valuable than someone who pitches 70 innings per year.
Joe, don’t waste your breath, he doesn’t understand math, he’s from Boston.
This is funny, because it’s usually me telling other people not to respond to this type of tripe. Good call, my man.
This is funny, because it’s usually me telling other people not to respond to this type of tripe.
Lisa: “They can’t seriously expect us to swallow that tripe.”
Skinner: “Now as a special treat courtesy of our friends at the Meat Council, please help yourself to this tripe!” (Class cheers and runs to table loaded with tripe)
+42
But also, I think he’s trying to be funny with the Joba stuff. Or am I giving him too much credit?
Confidence Level=10
© tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside a/k/a Mr. Snarky Irrelevant Non Sequitur Jones, 2009. All rights reserved.
Thank you, thank you.
I give because I love.
My confidence in the future of the ball club has little to do with short term performance. The issue is rather that we’ve got too many long contracts that will hamper us over the next 4-9 years:
A-Rod migth be good for 3-4 years of top baseball but after that we’ll be overpaying.
Tex: Looks good right now but locking in $180m of expenses over 8 years i just wrong.
CC: More difficult to get upset, but a concern. A true ace is extremelly difficult to sign, and especially one so young
AJ, Posada, Jeter and even Mo are probably going to have negative returns from here on.
Still I voted 8 because of Joba, Hughes, Wang and CC are young and as a group will be cheap for a number of years and when they will be expensive we’ll be able to afford them (but A-Rod’s contract will be a burden). Starting pitching wins. So I’m happy about the future but i’m not without worries…
Can i borrow your crystal ball? Sure those guys may not be good at the end of their contracts, but maybe they will be.
I voted a 6 and don’t find it to be at all unreasonable, or as “doom and gloom” as some of the readers here do. The reson being the way the poll was originally worded when it was first posed: “The overall future of the team,” being the key phrase.
If I am basing it on the teams current performance and standing then I would sit at a 9. But I have to say that the burden of some long term deals, roadblocks at certain positions which would be ideal places to park Jeter and Posada as they predictably decline, and a continuing reliance on free agency to fill holes because of the lack of MLB ready talent at the minor league level, and more importantly MLB ready talent at positions of need brings me down to that 6.
Now don’t get me wrong, there are bright spots on the farm: AJax, Melancon, Montero, and perhaps the Yanks can turn their surplus of + arms into some younger postion players. But until that becomes reality I am firmly at 6, with the seeming paradox that I believe the Yanks can and will win it all this year.
Can I borrow $500m from you to make a 50/50 bet? If it works out i’ll pay you back, if i lose it would be more your problem than mine.
It’s just the wrong risk/reward situation for me to say that i’m not worried about the Yankees future. Would I do the trade if i were Cashman? I probably would have, but i might have paid up to make them shorter.
On thing that we should ponder however is the effect of the long contracts on the possibility of a wage cap. MLB can’t really change the rules on tehir biggest team if they have $100m already committed 5 years out. Any new regime would have to wait until 2015 at the earliest, and every big contract to some extent extends the grace period for teh Yankees.
Tex: Looks good right now but locking in $180m of expenses over 8 years i just wrong.
That last year of the 8 year deal, Tex will be only 36 years old. Steroid jokes aside, with the advances in modern medicine and strength training technology, I think Tex will likely still produce just fine at age 36. Even though he runs funny, he’s still a great athlete, not a roided up pile of whale blubber like Big Sloppy.
AJ, Posada, Jeter and even Mo are probably going to have negative returns from here on.
Correct me if I’m wrong but don’t Jeter and Rivera only have another year on their respective contracts? Considering that they are both extremely productive so far this year you’re really expecting them to immediately fall off the table and produce “negative returns” in the remaining season and a half on their contracts?
Look, Mo’s performane this year is not worth $15m and Jeter is not worth $20m in this environment. It’s not 1 year, it’s actaually 1 2/3rds of a season which equals $60m between now and the end of 2010. That is a lot of money. Its not just about if they are good now or not but also how much their equal replacements would cost.
I love them both but right now they are reducing flexibility without contributing equal to their salaries
Posada for another 2 2/3rd season? Not a good bet…
In the last 30 years we’ve seen rising wages over virtually any 4-5 year period which has baile dout any long term contracts as long as the player continues to produce. However just like house prices seemed to only go up but stopped it could be that in the next 5 years we won’t see many or even any $20m/year contracts. The Yankees is basically making a huge bet that baseball revenues will remain strong and every long contract increases that bet.
If Helicopter Ben gets his way the US will face double digit inflation in 2011 and for a few years, if that is the case everything will work out fine, i’m just saying that might not happen and we could be in serious trouble financially even if A-Rod and Tex remain fine baseball players to the end of their contracts
That started just fine and then unraveled into a descending spiral of inexplicable tangents.
I don’t know who “Helicopter Ben” is, and I don’t think I want to know.
Helicopter Ben is Ben Bernanke who once said that in a fiat monetary system the central bank can always avoid deflation by printing money and “bombing the economy with bundles of cash from a helicopter”. That is effect what the fed is currently doing. Inflation expectatiosn is an exceptionally important aspect of evaluating long term commitments liek a 10 year $275m contract for A-Rod. If we have zero inflation or 10% inflation, makes a difference in the present value of that contract of 32.5%.
However the reason the fed is doing what they’re doing is that they have serious worries about deflation in which case the long term contracts would become a much bigger liability than most people seem to realise. Will we get deflaation? Probably not, but if we do the Yankees will get into very, very serious financial difficulties.
Yup, I was right, I didn’t want to know.
Look at it this way
In 2009 based on projected payrolls the Yankees will pay 7.5% of all player wages in MLB ($207m out of $2750m). Based on committed contracts for 2010 the Yankees commitment equal 10.0% of all commitments, for 2011 that irses to 10.8%, in 2012 its 15.1% and in 2013 its 25.6%. That means that out of all contract already committed for 2013 the Yankees are responsible for 25.6%. I don’t have data beyond 2013 but it almost certainly increases after that out to 2017.
For the Sux the figure remains pretty flat around 4.5% until 2013 when it falls to 3.1%.
It’s not a big/small club issue either, teh Dodgers have not one dollar committed for 2012 or beyond and the Angels are one of 12 clubs with no commitments from 2013 and onwards. That gives them extreme flexibility, but probably also a lack of stability.
Whether you want to hear about it or not given that the Yankees have made a long term bet that is completely different from all other big clubs the inflationary environment is very important for our ability to compete from 2013 to 2017.
Anyone who is happy to comment on if a player is worth $180m over an 8 year period and then don’t want to contemplate the inflationary environment is as useful to listen to as Joe Morgan…
The Tex signing was brilliant.
People need to stop expecting CC to be a Santana-like Ace. Instead, expect Andy Pettite in his prime with one huge difference: CC has the ability to pul a complete game shutout from nowhere at any time.
Andy Pettite in his prime was not worth $161 m. I fully expect Sabbathia to be a “Santana like ace” and don’t think Yankee fans should expect any less. The reason they went after him so hard was to have an absolute shut down stud at the front end of their rotation. If he is anything less than that its not what they paid for. It;s unreasonable to think he should pitch 8 shutout innings every time out, but the Yanks should expect to win every game he throws. That’s what an ace does, and that’s why you do anything to get one.
I think your selling CC a bit short
People need to stop expecting CC to be a Santana-like Ace.
Ummm, He is a Santana type ace with a harder fastball.
No, people can and should expect CC to be a Santana-like ace, because he is a Santana-like ace.
What people shouldn’t expect is for an ace to go through a full 33-start season without ever once throwing a few subpar starts or clunkers, because no ace does that, not CC, not Santana, not Halladay, not Grienke. None of them. Everybody has the occasional bad day, even aces.
That’s basically what I said, just with a bunch of filler.
Yes, but I looked more sexy and handsome than you when I said it, so
Me >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> you
Are you trying to tell me your gay? Cause I’m all for it. Gay is the new black.
Well, then, since I’m black AND gay, I’m doubly awesome.
In the words of a great men, “It’s funny cause it true.” – Homer J Simpson
I’m still at 7. Wang still worries me. Phil needs innings. The offense is still awful with RISP. But we’re in first place heading into the series with the Red Sox and the weekend series with the Mets…
The offense is still awful with RISP.
New York Yankees, RISP, 2009 (MLB ranks):
.266 BA (13th)
.367 OBP (8th)
.459 SLG (3rd)
.826 OPS (5th)
all about the 9s. Extremememely confident, but there is still room for improvement.
I want to see what happens w/ the draft and see some of our position players not named Jesus or A-Jax, jump onto the seen and turn some heads.
Plus, I’m looking forward to the bullpen getting better and A-rod coming into form.
If we take this series from the Redsox, I don’t believe we’ll see 2nd place again this year.
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