Fan Confidence Poll: October 10th, 2011

October 10, 2011 by Mike Axisa 47 Comments

2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS

Top stories from last week:

The Yankees started the week with the best-of-five ALDS tied at one. They lost Game Three because CC Sabathia struggled and Rafael Soriano allowed a late homerun, but they rebounded to win Game Four in blowout fashion behind A.J. Burnett. The 2011 season came to an end when the Yankees blew a number of offensive opportunities in Game Five on Thursday.
Injury News: Ivan Nova left his Game Five start with forearm tightness, and was later diagnosed with a Grade I flexor strain. He’s expected to be ready in time for Spring Training.
Talks between the team and Brian Cashman about a new contract are going well, and a deal could be wrapped up by the end of the week.
Bench guy Eric Chavez is “leaving heavily” towards retirement. Curtis Granderson is up for the 2011 Hank Aaron Award.
Jesus Montero ranked among the best prospects in the Triple-A International League while the trio of Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, and Austin Romine did the same for the Double-A Eastern League. No Yankees farmhands made the High-A Florida State League list.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

http://www.twitter.com/matt__harris Matt :: Sec110

I’m not sure what surprises me more, 4 votes at “10”, or 5 votes at “1”.

(after 64 votes)
- CP
  
  I voted 10.
  
  2011 is over, it’s all about 2012 and beyond now.
- YanksFan
  
  After 581 votes, it’s 32 for 10 & 28 for 1. No confidence for the future? Are those guys serious? I’m at 9 w/ Montero officially here for future. Delin & Manny on the verge of coming up in 2012. I believe Hughes can bounce back next year.
PaulF

I’m over the ALDS loss, onto to offseason. It’s good to hear that Cashman is coming back and that things are going well. I think he keeps the organization from dissolving into chaos. Worries: I hope Nova’s forearm tightness doesn’t turn into TJ like it did with Joba.
MannyGeee

Well, for all the pain and suffering we got from the ALDS loss, its nice to know that the happiest time of year is upon us.

WINTER MEETINGS!!!!! Now the Yankees can be tied to every free agent on the market! Domestic OR International! Oh, the Opt outs, the trades, the dancing bears, and Barry Bonds may even show up to pimp his self out again!!!

But in all seriousness, turn the page. The future looks very bright for our team, soooooo

Go Brewers?
- MannyGeee
  
  Also, I voted an 8. Just like i have every time. An early exit does not waver my confidence in this teams future, we have the money and brains to make the Yankees competetive for years to come.
Reggie C.

7.

Down one from a week ago and until the Yanks find a starter to ease the fall in talent and execution that exists bw CC and the rest of the rotation , I won’t go any higher than 7.

I’m actually more disappointed now than I was a week ago at the early exit.
Freddy Garcia’s 86 mph Heat

8. This season’s over, time to move on. Jesus will be a full time player ext year, and we will probably see all 3 Killer B’s. 2012’s gonna be a lot of fun.

Also, go Cardinals.
bk

How can you not be a 10.

/irrationally uncritical fan
Paul Avery

We were eliminated from the playoffs so I’m at a 1. Can’t be any higher than that when you’re not playing anymore.
- The Big City of Dreams
  
  Tt’s not just 2011 but the future as well. Do you have a bleak outlook on the future of the club?
- Doug
  
  You can when you’re supposed to voting on “how confident are you in the Yankees’ overall future?”
- gc
  
  You also can’t be any higher than that if you don’t actually read what the poll question asks. You should try it sometime.
Cris Pengiucci

While there’s a lot of uncertainty this off-season (Will CC Opt-out? If so, do they bring him back and at what cost? Cashman deal? Seems all but done, however … Another high-end starter?), the Yankees have a lot of young talent to sift through and the financial strength to continue to be contenders for years to come.

A friend of mine (Sawx fan) said to me after the Yanks were eliminated from the ALDS “Guess we’re in the same boat now”. I responded “No, the Yankees made the playoffs and didn’t collapse like the Sox did.”. Imagine if he were a KC fan. This team will perenially compete. I’m at an 8.
Jose M. Vazquez..

If the team remains as it is we will probably get into the playoffs but have another early exit. We need one more pitcher preferably a lefty with good stuff as a starter and a couple of other good LOOGYs for the bullpen and that is assuming that CC stays. We can supply some of what we need from the farm but no everything.I voted 7.
Pants Lendelton

5 out of the current 25 are either financially inflexible (Tex/ARod/Jeter/Burnett/Soriano) or in decline.

However the other 20 spots are either still productive or in their current primes. + you have a farm system that you can use for possible trades PLUS money coming off the book.

Not that I should convince people here how to vote but anything less than a 5 is strictly trolling.
http://www.thesubwayconnection.com Alex Taffet

I usually sit at 9, but this week, I moved down to an 8. Not because of the ALDS loss, but mainly because of the HUGE contracts of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, and to a lesser extent A.J. (though that shouldn’t prevent any future moves, so w.e) as well as the looming CC opt out clause. Plus, they got lucky with Freddy and Bartolo; who’s to say that will happen again. I mean, only Nova, A.J? and Hughes? are set in the rotation for next year.

Though the team is still strong; the same team that won 97 games. And I’m fairly confident that CC will return, and that the Yanks will fill in the rotation, and have some talent coming up from the minors. So while I do have some concerns, I am still confident, thus the still-strong grade of 8.
- Reggie C.
  
  If Teixeira is reduced to a 2010 form going forward, … I’ll accept it. Teixeira has to rebound from 2011 and strive to get on base at a .365 clip.
  - http://www.thesubwayconnection.com Alex Taffet
    
    Exactly. A .343 OBP from a first baseman being paid well over $100 million over the next five years is not cutting it, no matter the power. O how nice it would be to see another .400 wOBA season… Where have you gone Mark Teixeira?
    - Jimmy McNulty
      
      It seems like he Yankee Stadium’d his swing, he’s even admitted that he’s became too pull happy. Watch his last nine or ten games played, he got a few good drives to the opposite field and even hit an Hell…even AJ’s peripherals weren’t as bad as his ERA suggests or as bad as anyone really thought he was. Think 2007 Mike Mussina, and look at Moose’s next year. Alex, I think I’m the most worried about.
    - Doug
      
      .343 would have been great. was only .341, actually :-)
Dave B

I kept it at an 8. Notwithstanding the early exit and some poor playoff performances, the future is extremely bright with their young talent. I am concerned with the middle of their lineup in the postseason which won’t be resolved overnight or necessarily with young players. However, I have a feeling Tex will be a better hitter next year. If K-Long can do what he did with Grandy I have high hopes he’ll make Tex a better hitter from the left side.
CMP

I think the 2013 season looks great with a lot of talent on the farm that should be ready over the next 2 years and tons of great free agents available after the season.

2012 worries me a little especially the starting rotation since it would be foolish to expect similar performance from Colon and Garcia, Burnett pretty much established as nothing more than a 5th starter and question marks with Hughes and Nova.
Will (the other one)

7. I’m very confident in most of the organization’s personnel and prospects going forward, but the team again has some fundamental pitching questions to answer during the offseason. How it addresses that issue will be the main factor in my votes going forward.
Kostas

Here is a question, what role does Montero seriously play on this team, aside from DH? I ask because I cannot find anything that indicates the Yankees think he is a legitimate catcher. 1st base is locked up for the next 5 years so not sure where than leaves Montero.
- Monteroisdinero
  
  I think he fills a great role as a catcher of 40 games next year. Give Martin a rest, let ARod DH. As long as Jesus gets his abs I will be happy.
  
  Just don’t sit him against righties. Jorge should no longer be blocking Montero’s progress.
- CMP
  
  Agree. In another 2-3 years, ARod is pretty much your full time DH so Montero needs to play a position. I don’t know why they don’t try him in RF. He has a strong arm and in YS3, there isn’t a lot of ground to cover. He’s not the most athletic looking guy but plenty of teams get by with below average defensive corner outfielders.
  
  The Red Sox did fine with Manny in LF.
  - http://www.thesubwayconnection.com Alex Taffet
    
    Fenway Park’s LF does make YS3’s RF look like Comerica’s CF.
    
    But yea, if Montero’s offense comes along like it can, there should be no reason that they cannot get by with him in right. Sure it may not be pretty at times when a pop-up hits the right field line, but all will be forgotten when he smashes a homerun the inning after.
    - https://twitter.com/johnsc2000 JohnnyC
      
      I think the Yankees will keep Montero behind the plate until they’re absolutely sure he can’t cut it. The potential value is too great to give up on. He’s only 21 for chrissake.
      - http://www.thesubwayconnection.com Alex Taffet
        
        O I agree completely. I’d love to see him stick behind the plate. All I’m saying is that if that does not work, which is a good possibility, they can live with his poor defense in the outfield. By all means, let him prove himself at catcher first.
JT

Since 2005, they have missed the playoffs once and have been bounced out in the first round four times. During that time they have lapped the field in spending on players.

If the standard is winning championships or at least playing deep into October, how confident can any of us be?
- http://www.thesubwayconnection.com Alex Taffet
  
  To be fair, in order to be bounced four times, they have to be in the playoffs a LOT. I’d say one missed season in the last six is pretty damn good.
  
  Also, why does the 2005 team’s success have any bearing on the future success? From that team, only Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, and Mo, remain.
- Cris Pengiucci
  
  Guess it all depends on your standards. You need a very good team to make the playoffs. Once there, it becomes a crap-shoot (although top-flight pitching seems to help a lot).
  
  I look at what fans of other teams go through. Very few teams consistently make the playoffs. The team we love does. Therefore, I’m at the higher end of the scale when I vote, although never a “10”, since we won’t win the WS every year.
Brian in NH

thought about bridge jumping with a 1, but i went for a 7. uncertaintity with the staff (CC’s opt out and future huge-er payout) thoughts of Beltran roaming RF (please just pickup swish) rumors of trading Montero (primary DH/Backup C) for a starter just to free up space for aging veterans scares me a little, but in Cash i trust right?
JT

I’d say one missed season in the last six is pretty damn good.

——–

I would say that 1) if you spend roughly 25-40 percent more per year than the Red Sox; and 2) 300 to 500 percent more per year than the other three teams in your division; and 3) there are two playoff spots available in your 5 team division–then merely making the playoffs isn’t such an amazing feat.
- Jimmy McNulty
  
  This is kinda missing the point. The Yankees missed the playoffs once in the past 15 years or so (at least, I honestly don’t remember the last time they missed) Yes, they have a high payroll, but they also spend it wisely. Plenty of other teams outspend their opponents by quite a bit in weaker leagues and FAR weaker divisions and still miss the playoffs. The Cubs? The Mets? They don’t spend as much as the Yankees, but they don’t have as steep of a hill to climb. The Yankees could be the third best team in baseball and still miss the playoffs. Hell, if the AL East is separated by a two games, there’s a very reasonable procedure where they can be the BEST team in the playoffs and have gotten unlucky in a few one run games, and still miss the playoffs.
  
  Boston outspends the rest of the non-Yankee AL by quite a bit and they’ve missed the playoffs three times since Theo’s taken over. So how crappy are they doing?
  - JT
    
    Plenty of other teams outspend their opponents by quite a bit in weaker leagues and FAR weaker divisions and still miss the playoffs. The Cubs? The Mets? They don’t spend as much as the Yankees, but they don’t have as steep of a hill to climb.
    —————-
    
    This speaks to the grossly incompetent management of those organizations. Boston is doing what one would expect given their spending. (Though Theo did assemble a team that won two rings in four years, which is impressive.)
    - http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
      
      The majority of the 2004 team pre-date Theo, and a good chunk of the 2007 team as well. He wasn’t the one that drafted Papelbon or Lester.
      - YanksFan
        
        No to mention the Beckett trade happened when he was in his gorilla suit.
- http://www.thesubwayconnection.com Alex Taffet
  
  Even if that is true, which I don’t think it is, then you can still be confident because of the money. If you believe that the money alone leads to success, then why would the Yankees future look not-so-bright. They have a boatload of cash.
  - JT
    
    I am very confident that given their spending relative to the other teams in the league, the Yankees will continue to qualify for one of the 4 and soon possibly 5 playoff spots.
    
    To that extent, given the current management, I’m confident.
- Jimmy McNulty
  
  Also remember when the Yankees missed the playoffs in 2008, their best player got hurt, two of their three best pitchers got hurt, Melky Cabrera was their CF, and Robinson Cano was possessed by the ghost of Tony Womack. Melky was okay in 2007 and serviceable 2009, so I’m pretty sure that 2008 Melky was an aberration, and we know 2008 Robbie is something we just laugh at.
Jimmy McNulty

Voted a three, before anyone gets upset, this team has no GM and needs to fill several roster spots. If (when?) Cash comes back confidence goes up quite a bit (full point), CC gets taken care of, same thing. If I’m fully confident that the team will make the playoffs but have no clue what will happen once they do, ehhh…five. If they assemble a squad that I can be assured will advance I may go as high as a dix.
Jorge

9. Thank the lord almighty this team sets out to do what’s best every offseason. 2012 will bring it’s challenges, but you can count on the team addressing concerns in a balanced manner.
http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

Unlike others I’m still not over the ALDS loss, at least not quite. That was a stupid, stupid, stupid way to lose. It aggravates me the most when there are a multitude of opportunities on offense and time and time again they fail to come through, and we saw it a number of times during the regular season. So I guess it’s fitting that the season had to end like that.

With that said I’m at a 7, almost an 8. It’s not a guarantee that CC comes back, but there is still a very good chance he does. I’m sick of A-Rod, I wish he would just go away or something! But I know that will not happen and that we’re stuck with him for the next six, SIX, years. There are many questions in the starting rotation, will CC comeback? Will Nova pitch like he did in 2011? Can Phil Hughes bounce back from a frustrating 2011? What will A.J Burnett do, will he suck again? Who is the number five starter? Also with Brian Cashman, will he be back? Talks have gone smoothly thus far, but he’s not signed yet.
- Jimmy McNulty
  
  Yeah I probably should have added a clause about what to do about Phail. They’ve gotta have a plan where there’s at least some chance that he can be an effective starter again, other than just “run him out there for a full season again.”
Mike

I have to go with a ‘7’. For me, for the Yankees, “7” means: over the next 5 years the Yanks will miss 1 postseason, could easily miss 2 postseasons, and given bad luck might miss 3. For most teams that would be a ’10’, so take it for what you will.

1) Questionable pitching past C.C. (assuming he re-signs). Can Phil come back? Will Nova continue his improvement, or will he regress as his innings increase? Who will replace Colon’s/Garcia’s innings? Will the Yanks get a real #2 starter?)

2) Regression from older players (A-Rod and Jeter both had credible seasons this year – will that happen next year? how about in 3 years?)…particularly Tex, who at this rate will actually be a liability in 2 years.

3) Regression from career-year players, most notably Gardner and Granderson.

4) Dead salary weight.

5) This one is a ‘what if,’ but special mention to a possibility of an extended injury from C.C. It goes without saying what would happen.

6) There’s a lot of “counting on” minor league players who may not turn out to be the All Star talents we’ve assumed.

I can see an 85 win season next year or the year after.