Oct
28
Fan Confidence Poll: October 28, 2013
By2013 Season: 85-77 (637 RS, 671 RA, 77-85 pythag. record), didn’t qualify for playoffs
Top stories from last week:
- Among the players the Yankees were rumored to have interest in last week were Stephen Drew, Paul Maholm, and Shin-Soo Choo. The team has been scouting righties Seung-Hwan Oh (Korea) and Ordisamer Despaigne (Cuba). Scott Boras was slated to talk to New York about Korean righty Suk-Min Yoon last week. Meanwhile, MLB and NPB are close to an agreement that will change the posting system.
- Injury News: Outfield prospect Tyler Austin was removed from the Arizona Fall League when the bone bruise in his right wrist flared up.
- Despite rumors that changes would be coming, amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer will remain with the team. Strength and conditioning coach Dana Cavalea was let go.
- Brett Gardner and David Robertson are projected to receive healthy raises during their final trips through arbitration.
- The Yankees are currently valued at close to $3.3 billion. Ticket prices for the 2014 season have been announced.
- Robinson Cano was named a finalist for the Gold Glove Award.
- Alex Rodriguez‘s appeal hearing will continue November 18th.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Seems to me, looking at the history of the club, we should have full confidence in the overall future of the club. The rub is -how long will it take to put together a contender. Five years would be my take.
Agreed. The Yankees are not positioned as the Red Sox were for a rapid turnaround. Four years would be a realistic but optimistic possibility.
After the trade almost everyone thought the Redsox wouldn’t compete for at least three years. Most of there success is coming from the fact that they got the best case scenario out of almost every free agent they signed.
False. I would argue that if our definition this week of success is “look at teh Red Sockz!”, then a similar turnaround should come when they are in a position to blow their entire nut once again… or 2015.
In 2015 you are free of the contracts of Ichiro, Wells, Soriano, Jeter, and possibly A-Rod if he is not fit to play. (my bold prediction is he will serve a reduced time of suspension and then walk away out of spite). There will also (if we believe what we read) be no restriction to $189M.
However, if your definition of success is something closer to what St Louis is doing, that will require alot more work.
They’re not positioned to do things exactly the way the Sox did them. There’s more than one way to skin a cat, though.
The ASPCA knows where you live. Consider yourself on notice.
*resisting the urge to make an off color comment about the hair removal of animal named body parts…..*
Throwing it down right now. Are you ready?
The New York Yankees will be a playoff contender in 2014.
If I’m wrong, you can even quote me on it at the end of the season. I’m not going to be wrong, though.
Agree 100%. People also have to realize that they were a playoff contender in 2013. They were, what, 2 out with 15 to play. That’s contention folks.
Once in, it’s anyone’s game.
Nice. Might as well take another run at it right? Told everyone they would be right there in 2013 too and failed miserably on that prediction.
Plus, you’re really a Florida Marlin fan anyway so at worst the Yankees will be better than them.
And if not you’ll just to your predictable mocking of all the REAL Yankee fans who are pissed off that they sucked again. Wash, rinse, repeat. You’re a real piece of work. But people buy your shit so keep on keeping on man. GO MARLINS!!!
This was worded very specifically to say “contender” and not “playoff team.” That way, if they come up short, as long as they were in shouting distance, as defined by him, he’ll be right. He won’t say he failed miserably this year because they were within shouting distance of the 2nd playoff spot, which made them a contender
You’re actually right here. They did contend in 2012 and, not that I give a shit about whose right or wrong, but all I said all season was that it’s be a fight for them all season long in making the playoffs. That’s what happened, isn’t it?
Yes. That’s why I wrote it.
I don’t think it will take anything near five years to build the team back up. One year tops.
What is your 5 year take based on?
Seems incredibly pessimistic to me.
JR Murphy’s capacity to grow a big, bushy beard, obviously.
I’m honestly interested in seeing what the rationale behind these proclamations is.
puberty and genetics mostly.
I see it as a couple of things:
1) People believing that everything that can possibly go wrong for the Yankees will, while believing this will happen to no other team
2) People believing that every piece has to be to their liking before they can determine the Yankees are a contender
3) “Contending” being defined as being a clear-cut favorite to dominate in the playoffs, much like the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays were.
Did TomH go back to bluebird banter?
The Yankees did have a pretty long run where they fielded a team with an average of about 7 potential all star position players every year, and were definitively considered in the top 3 teams contending for the WS during the pre-season. The idea of fielding a team for whom the playoffs is a goal rather than a foregone conclusion seems not to sit well with a lot of people on the site.
Semantics, though. It’s always a “goal.” There are no foregone conclusions….
….except for the 2013 Blue Jays and 2012 Red Sox, of course.
I understand that there are no guarantees. But look at the injuries the 2009 team endured. A-Rod’s hip, the opening day starting RF Xavier Nady played 7 games, the pitcher who had been the teams number one pitcher prior to hurting his ankle the prior year had an ERA of almost 10 in only 12 starts, Ian Kennedy who was supposed to compete for the fifth spot had the weird elbow growth thing, the guy who did win that spot had a shoulder injury and an ERA of nearly 5, and this is just what I remember off the top of my head. But that team was unbelievably stacked. I mean Brett Gardner and Nick Swisher started the season on the bench, Phil Hughes in the minors. So that’s the expectation of fans. You should have a team that has a legitimate All-Star at every position and maybe a future or past all-star or two on the bench with a starting staff of guys who could slot into most teams first or second spot in the rotation, and three legit closers. It’s unreasonable, but fans have come to expect it because the Yankees have aspired to it, and actually fielded teams that good a couple of times to start the year.
Nothing significant has happened since the last poll, so I’m still a five. Not because I’m particularly pessimistic, but because I can’t judge the team’s future until they start making some moves (or don’t).
7.
Nothing bad has happened yet.
the 2013 season?
Every star but Robbie and arguably ARod had close to the worst case scenario happen and we were still in contention.
The team could have been improved, at least somewhat, during the offseason. The injuries were discouraging. The budget looms. And the team just wasn’t fun to watch for stretches of the season. All of this is true, but lets not act like last year was some kind of embarrassment from which we’ll need most of a decade to recover.
Baseline 7. This number will change based on the signing of Cano, either by the Yankees or the Nippon Ham Fighters (NO…. no other MLB teams are in the running in my mind.)
Still at absolute zero. If the Cardinals win the WS I’ll bump it up to the Fab Five(minus Chris Webber), if the Sox win the WS expect another Black Monday next week.
If the Yanks were on the stock exchange I’d sell them short. I don’t think the team will be valued at over $3 billion a couple of years from now.
At best, it will take them 3 years or so to be good. But, if they continue to look for short-term fixes, they may be mediocre for a long time.
How can you not vote a 10?
The team is rested. The complimentary parts look better. Norris Cole looks like he could start for 3/4 of the teams out there. Sure, Oden and Beasley are shooting for the sky but, if you’re going to roll the dice, do it on this sort of potential upside. I’m going to miss Mike Miller, but I don’t think I’m going to miss him too much.
Three-peat? You betcha.
Oh, wait…
Let’s go Knicks
Or how about a team in the area that has a realistic shot. Let’s give a shout out to those Brooklyn Nets.
(I voted my baseline seven, BTW)
I’m a 3.5
We not only have to get our own house in order, but we have now been lapped by a few teams. We have a long way to go before Girardi changes his number again.
Who exactly has lapped the Yankees? No team, besides the UBER lucky Red Sox, have lapped the Yankees.
And they were already a lap and a half behind after 2011 and 2012.
4.
Even if they go on that $300 million spending spree and get a best case scenario full year suspension on Arod, it’ll take a ton of things to go just right to contend next year. Chances are slim they’re gonna win 8 games more than their Pythagorean record again. They could easily put a better team on the field next year and win fewer games.
IMO, this team is at least 2-3 years away and that’s on the hope that those underachievers on the farm actually end up amounting to something.
Chances are slim the team looks like last year’s team. Pythag is meaningless in future projections if the lineup/rotation aren’t the same.
Come on.
No shit, I never said it did.
My point was this years team was really far worse than the 85 games they won and that they’ll likely have to put a much better team together to even reach 85.
You’re missing the point in trying to defend your statement. The point is that 2013 Pyth W-L is a fairly meaningless barometer for the 2014 Yankees. Pythagorean W-L is based on actual runs scored and allowed, not the expectations for the talent a team has under contract. The baseline you are trying to establish isn’t an accurate one given the terrible injury luck the Yankees had in 2013. They could field a worse team, have normal injury luck, and put a better team on the field over 162 games.
Thanks for the assist.
The reason you have to look at pythag is because most people don’t do a ground up analysis and instead look at what gets added and what gets lost.
So when folks say Tex, back, Jeter back, no Mo, no Pettitte, potentially no Kuroda, add FA X,Y,Z… you can’t just start adding and subtracting wins from last year’s record.
The initial point is a fair won – the Yankees will have to add significant talent to reasonably project even the same record as last year.
“won” = one
If they do that spending spree you’re out of your mind to be so bleak on next season. It would require that money to preform mediocre AND another meltdown year from CC, Arod, Jeter, and Teix. I just don’t see that happening. We’ll contend if that money gets spent even somewhat wisely.
If they don’t spend…then that could be pretty ugly.
I don’t agree with the original comment, but I don’t put a lot of stock into spending $300 mm. Re-signing Cano by itself may mean $200 million. Tanaka may mean $100+ million (so might Choo or Garza or McCann + Beltran).
I’m aware. But if they get Cano plus one of those (I obviously have my preferences) I think it’ll take bad luck and terrible performance similar to last season to keep us out of contention for most of the season.
A ton of thinks have to go right for any team to contend. That a ton of things went wrong in 2013 doesn’t mean they will again in 2014.
The idea that this team is 3 years away from contending is ridiculous. This isn’t some mid-market NBA team stuck in mediocrity. The Yankees are not going to become some multiple year rebuilding project.
They weren’t too far off from the playoffs last year and had $100mil worth of guys on the DL. It will definitely take a few years to clean up the mistakes they made and turn themselves into a healthy organization like the Cardinals. Fortunately for them money covers up a lot of mistakes.
They don’t even all have to be covered up in order to contend.
Totally agree, was thinking the same thing.
It certainly might be 3 years before they make the playoffs (might also be 20 years), but I would say that’s on the more pessimistic side. This team had, what?, two MLB starting caliber players in their lineup for most of 2013. They’re already expecting to have like twice that going into 2014 before re-signing Cano or adding anyone else.
Keep in mind, though, that many of the same commenters making these ridiculously deterministic predictions about the Yankees were also making unyielding predictions about how the Red Sox would finish in last place while the Blue Jays just ran away with the division. Even pointing out that the Red Sox actually had a pretty solid roster while the Jays had some serious holes would get you run off this board. Many of these same people have also been predicting the collapse of the Yankees for like 5 seasons in a row and could go through any MLB roster seeing nothing but negatives. If they were Red Sox fans entering 2013 their heads might have already exploded, and if they were Cardinals fans they likely would have been flipping out about their old OFs, putting a corner guy at 2B, letting Lohse walk, Adams’ weight, not starting Taveras on the opening day roster, etc., etc.
4. As I was basically all last season. And I will remain there until:
- we know how long ARods suspension is, and thus the related savings
- whether and how ownership spends that savings, and other money, or not, this off season and next
- how our MiLB guys develop, or not
- whether CC bounces back to even a 3, let alone an ace (reminder: he was one of the very worst pitchers in baseball this year and is signed to a lot more years)
The results of the above may push me higher or lower, depending.
You can look at the past in a general way: most championships of all time, wealthy ownership historically willing to spend, etc and be optimistic. Or, you can look at the present in a specific way: roster as presently constructed. existing contract commitments, increasingly weak FA market, self imposed celery cap, meh farm, new iFA rules. new draft rules. etc and be pessimistic.
Or you can look at how the team stayed in contention for most of the season despite all that went wrong and be optimistic that so much won’t go wrong again.
The optimistic people aren’t all just living in the past. Some of them are looking ahead and seeing reasons to be optimistic.
I don’t see this being a multi year rebuilding process. Even if we suppose that the Yankees do nothing significant, you’re already looking at upgrades from last year at positions where there were injuries. I mean, come on, there were full time replacement players at 1B, SS, 3B, C, LF, and RF until we picked up Soriano and got ARod and Granderson back. So, unless it looks nightmareish like that, I don’t see them winning any fewer than 85 wins.
I wont budge my 3 until I see what the Yankees do this offseason. After last offseason, I’m not going to just trust the Yankees to make things better. They let Martin walk for a plan of Stewvelli, let Swisher walk for a plan of 2 years of Ichiro, they singed Youk for 12m. Color me skeptical of whats going on with the Yankees.
I wont kill them too much for the moves they made during the season as all those injuries would have been impossible for any team to deal with. I will say though, that you don’t have to be a front office guy to know the Wells trade was idiotic and laughable, and no hindsight is required.
They have nothing coming from the minors next year. The injured guys who will be returning are declining (Tex), very old (Jeter), or FA (Granderson). I have no idea what the SP will look like with Petite retiring and no news on Kuroda’s plans. Not to mention that we have no idea whats going to happen with the Yankees best player who is also FA. There are so many moving parts with the Yankees right now, and a recent history of poor decisions (made seemingly with 189 in mind), that until I see otherwise, I will remain skeptical.