Now that Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras know that the market for the slugger isn’t as robust as they hoped, the dynamic duo has gone crawling back to the Dodgers. While Boras still contends that a market for Manny will soon materialize, I wonder if they’ll be able to get the Dodgers to put that generous two-year, $45-million offer back on the table. Everyone in baseball knows that Ned Colletti will be competing with himself for the services of Ramirez.
In hindsight, would accepting arbitration have been better?
On December 1, 24 players were offered arbitration. Only two of them — Darren Oliver and David Weathers, both relievers — accepted. Of the remaining 22, six have signed, three with the Yankees. We’ve heard names like Manny Ramirez, Brian Fuentes, Derek Lowe, and Milton Bradley discussed, but nothing seems imminent. Would some of them have fared better by accepting arbitration and re-entering the free agent pool next winter?
Fred Claire tackled the topic at the end of his latest article. It deals with the free agent class of 2009, noting that it’s not nearly as top-heavy as this year’s talent. The top pitcher, John Lackey, might not even make it to free agency. Matt Holliday is a very good hitter, but after him there’s not much unless Vlad Guerrero can stay healthy. That is, unless you count Chipper Jones, who is a decently safe bet to stay with Atlanta.
So why didn’t a few more free agents accept arbitration this year and hope for better conditions next year?
“I was particularly surprised that so many ranking free agents refused arbitration,” observed a general manager. “It would seem that next offseason would be a better marketplace from a player’s perspective. I think a few agents didn’t offer the best advice to their clients [at the arbitration deadline on Dec. 7.]”
Is it really going to be a better market, though? There might not be as high end talent available after the 2009 season, but for the most part the unsigned guys who declined arbitration either are getting on in years or aren’t top-tier guys. The older guys want their final multi-year contracts, and the second- and third-tier guys don’t necessarily stand a better chance next winter. Maybe economic conditions improve and teams can spend a bit more. But with attendance forecasted to take a hit next year, is that a likely scenario?
No, for the most part I don’t blame these guys for declining arbitration. It’s worked for CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, Raul Ibanez, Casey Blake, and Francisco Rodriguez. I’m sure Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, Orlando Hudson, Oliver Perez, etc. will find buyers for their services.
Red Sox try to retaliate with former farmhand
If this had happened, it would have been scary: According to Jon Heyman and Tom Verducci of SI.com, the Red Sox made a play for Marlins SS Hanley Ramirez last week after losing out on Mark Teixeira. If you remember, and I’m sure most of you do, the Red Sox traded Ramirez — along with Anibal Sanchez, Jesus Delgado, and Harvey Garcia — to the Marlins in the winter of 2005 for Josh Beckett and what was thought to be Mike Lowell’s salary. Both teams got what they wanted out of the deal, but now it appears Boston wants to trade Florida more players it can trade back for in three years.
I know some of you are thinking it, and I’m sure someone has said it in the comments section at MLBTR, but it’s not what you think. This is not Boston retaliating. Signing Carl Pavano and trading for Randy Johnson? Retaliation for 2004. Bidding 27 freaking million dollars on Kei Igawa? Retaliation for Daisuke Matsuzaka (or at least one could make the argument). Attempting a trade for Hanley Ramirez? Not retaliation for the Yankees nabbing Teixeira.
By making a play for Teixeira, Boston attempted to upgrade their offense. They saw a number of question marks with players like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, and whomever is going to catch, so they sought a reliable bat to go along with Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis. Unfortunately for them, the Yankees also saw question marks: Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher. They sought a reliable bat to go along with Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez. They paid the premium and solidified the lineup. That doesn’t change Boston’s plans, though.
Maybe, just maybe there’s a hint of retaliation in this, in that the Red Sox realize that not only do they have the same number of question marks as before, but that the Yankees have one fewer. The pressure is then greater, I suppose, to add that reliable bat and keep pace. I’m sure that the Red Sox don’t think like that, though. They wanted a bat before, and they still want a bat. After missing out on the top free agent on the market, they turned to the best player on a team that’s always willing to listen. Apparently they didn’t get far, but considering the player that’s to be expected. Not only is Hanley the best offensive shortstop in the majors, but the Marlins just signed him to a long-term deal this past May. He doesn’t get expensive until 2012 — perhaps 2011 if you’re the Marlins, which they indeed are.
As Heyman and Verducci noted, it would have taken an overwhelming offer to get the Marlins to budge. Specifically mentioned were Jacoby Elsbury and Clay Buchholz, plus others. I’m guessing Lars Anderson’s name came up. And why wouldn’t it? The Marlins have this guy for $5.5 million in 2009 and $7 million 2010. Considering Ryan Howard’s first-year arbitration salary, it could have been a lot worse. So why not hold onto him while he’s cheap and trade him away when he makes $11 million in 2011? He’ll only be 27 at that point. And then maybe he’ll become someone who toils in relevancy for a 90-win team.
This shows that the Red Sox aren’t going to quit their pursuit of run production just because they missed out on Teixeira. They have a strong farm system that could fetch them a number of capable major league players. The question is, how much are they willing to give up?
The unwanted Manny Ramirez
When the Yanks signed Mark Teixeira, I proclaimed Manny as the biggest loser of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes. The Yanks would have signed him had the Red Sox landed Teixeira, but with the Yanks out of the pitcher, the market for Manny is practically non-existent. Ramirez turned down a guaranteed two years and $40 million when he forced his trade from Boston, and Buster Olney says that Manny has only himself to blame.
I know some Yankee fans harbor a pipe dream that would see Manny land in New York for one year at some obscene dollar value, and I know others who would never root for Manny in pinstripes. I don’t think Manny will be Bronx-bound. Ironically, as Olney notes, the Red Sox are the only team left with the money and clear need for Manny, but the future Hall of Famer is learning the hard way that baseball karma is a bitch.
As Penny signs, Dodgers and Rangers express interest in Pettitte
In a rather lengthy piece focusing on the lack of job offers for Jason Varitek or Ivan Rodriguez, Nick Cafardo notes that the Dodgers and Rangers are interested in Andy Pettitte. We’ve heard these rumors before, and Pettitte has continually said that he’ll play for only the Yankees. However, if Pettitte and the Yanks don’t come to terms, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the lefty land elsewhere. This all may just be a negotiating ploy in an effort to get the Yanks to up the team’s offer though.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox are close to a one-year deal with Brad Penny. The contract is reportedly for one year and with a base salary of $5 million and $3 million in incentives. When healthy, Penny, a career NLer, can be a top pitcher, but he had an injury-plagued 2008. It’s a low-risk signing for the Red Sox and may encourage Pettitte to reevaluate the Yanks’ $10 million offer.
Should the Yankees be satisfied with their fifth starter competition?
We’re not entirely sure what’s going on with Andy Pettitte. He has a $10 million offer on the table and has yet to accept it. After the Yankees inked Mark Teixeira, some said that the Yanks considered pulling the offer, but that apparently has not happened yet. So we could still see Andy re-up with the Yankees, but it’s far from a guarantee.
The alternative to Pettitte as the fifth starter is a competition among those already in the organization. I’ve frequently seen the suitors listed as Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, etc., though I’m not quite sure whom would be considered etc. Dan Giese? Maybe as a short-term option, but he looks like a better option in the bullpen. Chase Wright? Kei Igawa? Other than throwing left-handed, these two offer little to the major league club right now.
Picking the best from Aceves, Hughes, and Kennedy isn’t the worst plan in the world — certainly it’s better than implicitly handing any of them a spot outright. What do those three have in common, though? A lack of major league experience. Not that it’s a bad thing. Everyone has to start somewhere. Yet I can’t help but think it might behoove the Yankees to bring in a veteran to add to the competition.
We’re not talking about someone like Ben Sheets here, who would certainly require a guaranteed rotation spot before signing, and perhaps a multi-year deal as well. I’m talking about someone like Brad Penny. Buster Olney mentioned Penny’s situation in his blog today, noting that the veteran righty “may soon make his decision about where he wants to pitch in 2009,” noting that he wants a one-year deal to re-establish his credibility.
Unfortunately, it looks like Penny is the only attractive name among the available free agents. By attractive, I mean someone who has had past success at the major league level, preferably on a consistent basis. Even Penny himself might be a stretch, since he could easily land a guaranteed major league deal, rather than the minor league deal which would be ideal for a competition scenario.
So while it’s nice to think about adding a new element to a fifth starter competition, it doesn’t seem very likely. There might be some names on the board right now, but they’ll start dropping once we hit mid-January and teams start to fill out their rosters. But just for the hell of it, who would you guys target as some fifth starter competition for the youngsters?
Pettitte offer still on the table
In the ongoing Andy Pettitte saga, Anthony McCarron says the Yanks’ one-year, $10-million is still on the table, but Yankee officials don’t seem confident that Pettitte will return to the Bronx. McCarron’s sources put the lefty’s return at 55-45 against, and the team is fully prepared to hand over the final rotation spot to Phil Hughes. The clock is ticking on Pettitte, and I wouldn’t be surprised at either outcome of this saga.
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