River Avenue Blues

The Yankees have questions all around their infield heading into the 2018-19 offseason

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(Getty)

Although the 2018 season had a (very) disappointing ending, it is exciting to look at the Yankees and know they are loaded with young talent for the future. Aaron Judge is a superstar through and through. He’s a top ten player in baseball. Then there’s Luis Severino, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, and Miguel Andujar. Most teams hope to have two guys like that on their roster. The Yankees have all of them.

And yet, going into the 2018-19 offseason, the Yankees are facing some very real questions all around the infield. As recently as June or July it looked like the Yankees were set long-term around the horn, with a young and productive player at all four infield positions. Now, in October, that isn’t really the case. That isn’t to say the Yankees are in bad shape on the infield, because they’re not, but things are a little up in the air. Let’s take a trip through the infield.

First Base

Since Opening Day 2016 the Yankees have received a .234/.314/.403 (91 wRC+) batting line and +1.9 WAR from their first basemen. Among the 30 teams they rank 26th in AVG, 23rd in OBP, 29th in SLG, 29th in wRC+, and 27th in WAR. Gross. Even with the first base cast of characters combining for 34 home runs (!) in 2018, first base has been wasteland since Mark Teixeira’s last good season in 2015.

Right now, it is fair to wonder whether Luke Voit is legit, whether Greg Bird is salvageable, and whether Miguel Andujar is going to wind up at first base. The Yankees love Bird and I’m certain that if you gave Brian Cashman & Co. a truth serum, they’d say they want Bird to grab the job and run with it next year. I would like that too. Bird has power and patience, at least when healthy, and the Yankees could use another left-handed bat.

“We’ll see how the offseason unfolds, but right now, he grabbed that job, no question about that,” Aaron Boone said of Voit at his end-of-season press conference. “I’m sure there will continue to be competition on all kinds of levels. The one thing with Greg that I never lost is we’ve seen him be an impact player at times in his career … This year, in a lot of ways, was a little bit of a lost season for him.”

Honestly, I feel like nothing that happens with first base this offseason would surprise me. Stick with Voit? I could buy it. At the very least, he has to be given every opportunity to win a roster spot in Spring Training, right? Right. Stick with Bird? I could see that too. Trade for Paul Goldschmidt? Trade for someone else? I could totally see it. Sign Bryce Harper and put him at first? Eh, that’s a stretch. Point is, first base remains unsettled, even after Voit’s late-season showing.

“In some ways, (Bird) never got all the way back physically to, I think, where he’ll be next year,” added Boone. “I think there’s a realistic chance he comes into Spring Training next year, physically in a really good place with a chance of a normal offseason where he gets his body where he wants it. Hopefully the results from that will follow. He’ll have his opportunities. We’ve never lost sight of the fact that when he’s right, can really hit.”

Second Base & Shortstop

Gleyber. (Getty)

These two positions are tied together because Torres is going to play one of them next year. We just don’t know which one. Gleyber’s a stud, man. A 21-year-old kid hitting .271/.340/.480 (120 wRC+) with 24 home runs as a middle infielder thrown into a pennant race as a rookie is awfully impressive. Torres is a stud and I think we’re no more than two years away from him emerging as the Yankees’ best player. Not because Judge will collapse or anything. Just because Torres is that damn good.

The problem here is Didi Gregorius. He had Tommy John surgery yesterday. He’s expected to return sometime next summer but no one really knows when. Could be as early as May or June, or as late as August or September. The Yankees have to proceed as if they won’t have Gregorius next year. Although Tommy John surgery is fairly routine, it is a major surgery, and there could be setbacks or a slower than expected recovery. It happens and the Yankees have to be prepared for it.

Gleyber is a natural shortstop — I thought he looked way smoother at short this season than second base — and his flexibility allows the Yankees to replace Gregorius with either a shortstop or second baseman. I’d prefer adding another shortstop and leaving Torres at second, but, if the market cranks out better options at second base, then Gleyber moves over. The only question then is who is the backup shortstop? You’d have to dedicate a bench spot — only of three bench spots since the eight-man bullpen seems to be here to stay — to a shortstop capable infielder.

We know this much about second base and shortstop: One of these two positions is set. Torres will play one. Cashman said they’ll scour the offseason market for a player at the other position “whether it’s an everyday player or an insurance policy.” In a weird way, Torres is the most “sure thing” among Yankees infielders at the moment, and we don’t even know whether he’s playing second or short next year. We just know he’ll be there. Hmmm.

Third Base

By OPS+, Andujar just had one of the three best seasons by a rookie third baseman in the last 30 years. Kris Bryant (135 OPS+) is kinda out there in his own little world, but Andujar (126 OPS+) is right there with Evan Longoria (127 OPS+). Those are the only three rookie third basemen to best a 125 OPS+ since Kevin Seitzer back in 1987. Andujar had an incredible rookie season.

By WAR, Andujar had only the 16th best season by a rookie third basemen over the last 30 years. His +2.2 WAR puts him alongside guys like Gordon Beckham (+2.1 WAR), Akinora Iwamura (+2.2 WAR), and Garrett Atkins (+2.3 WAR). That’s how much value Andujar gave back with his glove. He had one of the best offensive seasons by a rookie third basemen in three decades and was still run of the mill in terms of overall value.

Miggy Mantle. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

The Yankees told use exactly what they think about Andujar’s defense. They subbed him out in the sixth inning (!) for defense in the postseason. When it mattered most, the Yankees didn’t trust Andujar in the field, and I don’t really blame them. Range is a clear issue, and while Andujar has a strong arm, it plays down because his transfer is slow and his sidearm sling can cause the ball to sail wide of first.

“He made big strides this season. He has the athleticism, he has the hands and the arm strength. Preparation for the pitch and footwork are gonna determine if he becomes that frontline defender at third base. I do believe it is in there,” Boone said. “This winter is important for him as far as that goes. When I got here, there were all kinds of questions. He earned his at-bats with the way he swung the bat, but also by improving as much as he did defensively. Now it’s on all of us (to help him get better).”

For what it’s worth, earlier this week Cashman said during a radio interview that he expects Andujar to be the team’s third baseman next season. Of course he’s going to say that, right? The Yankees could be planning — and already enacting — a position change and they would still say they want Andujar at third base because it allows them to maintain leverage during trade and free agent talks.

I am weirdly ambivalent about Andujar’s defensive home next season. If the Yankees decide to keep him at third base for another season and let him work at it, I’m cool with it. And if the Yankees decide to move him to first base or left field (or DH), I’d be cool with that too. Ryan Braun had a great rookie year overall but was a defensive disaster, so he was moved to left field the next season. Could happen with Andujar!

Maybe this is a fluid situation. The Yankees might be planning to put Andujar at third base next season, but, if a better option comes along (trade for Nolan Arenado?), they’ll move him. Otherwise they’ll stick with it at least until Gregorius returns, then they can reevaluate their infield situation and figure out the best alignment. It could be that whoever replaces Didi plays well enough to stay in the lineup everyday, pushing Andujar somewhere else. We’ll see.

* * *

The good news is the Yankees are not devoid of infield talent. There are worse things in baseball than having Miguel Andujar as your starting third baseman, you know? Torres is a stud. Voit raked this year — maybe he is the Yankees’ Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar? that late bloomer who finds it in his late 20s? — and Bird could still maybe be something. They have to replace Gregorius at least temporarily, for sure. A Didi replacement is a “must have” this winter.

At the same time, Voit may be more Shane Spencer than Cruz or Aguilar, and play his way to Triple-A. Andujar could struggle defensively again. I don’t see how you could count on Bird for anything. The Yankees don’t necessarily have an infield problem. They just have some things to sort out. Is Andujar the long-term answer at third? Is it time to bring in a veteran first baseman to stop the post-Teixeira revolving door? Who steps in for Gregorius? Those are all questions the Yanks will answer this winter.

An Abbreviated Encore [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

Aaron Judge was nothing short of a revelation in 2017, emerging as arguably – statistically, at least – the best player in baseball. That’s not hyperbole, either. Judge led the majors in FanGraphs’s WAR, finished second in Baseball-Reference’s WAR, and placed fourth in Baseball Prospectus’s WARP. And all of this came as a rookie playing under the brightest lights in the game, which is a feat in and of itself.

The projection systems justifiably saw a bit of regression. After all, precious few players are as good as Judge was as a rookie, and it’s difficult to project those sorts of talents as a result. Here’s a brief refresher on the more scientific expectations:

  • ZiPS – .253/.364/.552, 43 HR, 14.3 BB%, 32.4 K%, 4.8 WAR
  • Steamer – .253/.368/.517, 37 HR, 14.7 BB%, 30.5 K%, 3.8 WAR
  • PECOTA – .247/.355/.505, 37 HR, 13.6 BB%, 31.0 K%, 4.1 WARP

It’s worth noting that all three projection systems had Judge with at least 610 plate appearances because, well, why wouldn’t they?

How did that work out?

Spoiler Alert: It Wasn’t a Fluke

Aaron Judge went 2-for-4 with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts on Opening Day. He hit his first home run a week later, lunging at an outside pitch and somehow pulling it fairly deep to left center. Take a look:

He’s simply not human.

By the time April came to a close, Judge was batting .317/.453/.584 with 7 HR, 19.5% walks, and 30.5% strikeouts. His walk and strikeout rates were just about where they were in 2018 as a whole (18.7% and 30.7%, respectively) and, while his power was a bit lighter it was still head and shoulders above the vast majority of big leaguers. It was an incredible first month that was somewhat overshadowed by Didi Gregorius’s own epic start, but make no mistake – it did a heck of a lot to show that Judge was unquestionably for real.

And he continued to rake in May. His .263/.386/.579 slash line that month looks less impressive, to be sure – but it was still good for an outstanding 160 wRC+, and he socked another 8 dingers. Interestingly, this wasn’t too far off from the ZiPS projection, albeit still a tick better in terms of walks, strikeouts, and power.

Judge was batting .291/.421/.582 with 15 HR, 17.8% walks, 29.3% strikeouts, and a 170 wRC+ when the calendar flipped to June. That wRC+ was good for fifth in all of baseball, and was right in-line with his 172 wRC+ in 2017. The biggest difference through this point was his power numbers – but some of that can be attributed to the league’s trends as a whole. The league-wide ISO dropped from .171 in 2017 to .161 this year, and the HR/FB dropped from 13.7% to 12.7%. Despite his otherworldly talent with the bat, Judge was not immune to this drop-off … but it didn’t really matter, because his production was roughly the same on the whole.

The June Slump

In 2017, Judge’s subpar August may well have torpedoed his shot at the MVP award. He slashed .185/.353/.326 (90 wRC+) and looked out of sorts at times. We learned later that he was playing through shoulder troubles, but that doesn’t change the fact that he looked utterly helpless at the dish at times. And he slumped again this June.

However, his slump was comparatively not bad at all; in fact, most players would love the sort of slump that Judge experience. He hit .234/.321/.489 (114 wRC+) with 6 home runs, and remained a productive player. His strikeout and walk rates both tipped in the wrong direction, which suggests that he was pressing – but, again, he was still a more than adequate hitter that month. And if that’s his downside, he’s a true mega-star.

The Bounceback

Great hitters don’t stay down for too long, and Judge is no exception. He resumed his raking ways in July, batting .329/.427/.537 (166 wRC+) with another five home runs, and a nice return to form with his walks and strikeouts. He also did this to a Max Scherzer fastball in the All-Star game:

All told, Judge was batting .276/.392/.544 at the break, with 25 HR and a 153 wRC+. He also featured prominently on several MLB leaderboards, checking in at:

  • 3rd in HR
  • 6th in WAR
  • 7th in BB%
  • 9th in wRC+

Again, he wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2017 – but few players are. And he remained among the best in the game through the season’s midway point. What more could we ask for? Unfortunately:

The Assassination of Aaron Judge’s Wrist by the Coward Jakob Junis

Allow me to clarify something first: I don’t blame Junis for what happened. And it’s awful that Yankees fans threatened him on social media (and perhaps even in person) after the fact.

That being said, Junis plunked Judge on the right wrist on July 26, which resulted in the chip fracture that would keep His Honor sidelined for seven weeks (or 45 team games). The Yankees went 25-20 without him, which is a solid 90-win pace – but it clearly wasn’t the same team. And Judge wasn’t the same player when he returned on September 14, either, batting .220/.333/.341 (87 wRC+) through the end of the season. He did play his part in the Yankees tying (and then breaking) the Mariners single-season home run record:

That September swoon dropped Judge’s season totals down to .278/.392/.528 (149 wRC+) with 27 HR in 498 PA. He was still good enough to rank 7th in the majors in wRC+ and 20th in WAR (a counting stat) – but it was nevertheless a disappointing end to the season. Prior to his injury he was on-pace for a .285/.398/.548 (156 wRC+) line to go along with 38 home runs and roughly 7.2 WAR, for whatever it’s worth.

Playoff Judge

Judge caught a bit of flack during the 2017 playoffs for his intermittent struggles, but that was more than a bit unfair. He was ineffective against the Indians in the ALDS (.308 OPS), but he came up big in the Wild Card game and went on to hit .250/.357/.708 against the Astros in the ALCS. I’ll take that without hesitation.

And then Judge took it to another level, slashing .421/.500/.947 with 3 home runs in the Yankees five playoff games this year. He reached base safely in every game, and reached base at least three times in three separate games. And, on the off-chance you’re not noticing a trend here, he hit this massive blast off of David Price in Game 2 of the ALDS:

The Yankees, of course, lost that series – but it was through no real fault of Judge, who once again looked like the franchise player that we saw throughout 2017 and prior to his injury this year.

Miscellaneous Tidbits

This throw:

It’s also worth noting that, even with his post-injury slump, Judge’s ridiculous exit velocity remained on-par with 2017. He had an MLB-best 94.9 MPH average exit velocity in 2017, and an MLB-best 55.0 hard-hit percentage; in 2018 those figures were an MLB-best 94.8 MPH and an MLB-best 53.8%. Nobody hits the ball as hard as Judge – take a look at the Statcast leaderboards if you’re curious. And that’s fantastic.

What’s Next?

Judge is entering his final pre-arbitration year, so the Yankees will be paying one of the best hitters in baseball less than a million bucks in 2019. How’s that for a bargain? He’ll spend most of next year at age-27, so he’s still right in the middle of his prime (if not just entering it), and our expectations should remain the same. It’ll get interesting when he reaches arbitration eligibility this time next season, especially if he maintains this level of excellence – but that’s a future Yankees problem (and a good one at that).

The Diamondbacks are ready to listen to trade offers and they have several players who could help the Yankees

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Goldy & Peralta. (Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

By almost any measure, the 2018 season was a spectacular failure for the Diamondbacks. Arizona spent more days in first place (125) than any other National League team this year, but they lost 24 of their final 35 games, and collapsed out of the postseason picture. The D’Backs finished 9.5 games back in the NL West and 8.5 games back of the second wild card spot. Ouch.

Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock are free agents this offseason and Paul Goldschmidt will be a free agent next winter, meaning the D’Backs’ window is starting to close. It is no surprise then that Buster Olney reports Arizona is willing to listen to trade offers for their best players, including Goldschmidt. We all love Luke Voit, he was awesome down the stretch, but Goldschmidt sure would look good at first base in pinstripes, wouldn’t he?

Anyway, the D’Backs have several players who could (should) be of interest to the Yankees this winter. These two teams have gotten together for five trades in the last four years (Brandon McCarthy, Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Clippard, Brandon Drury) and I’m sure they could work another deal or two if properly motivated. Here are some D’Backs players potentially of interest.

SS Nick Ahmed

Why would the Yankees want him? Well, the Yankees need a shortstop now that Gregorius has had Tommy John surgery, and Ahmed is a standout gloveman. One of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He can’t hit much (.234/.290/.411 and 84 wRC+ in 2018) but he sure can pick it. Ahmed, 29 in March, has two seasons of control remaining and his arbitration salaries are relatively low (MLBTR projects $3.1M in 2019) because of the lack of offense. Keep in mind the Yankees reportedly had interest in Ahmed two years ago.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? He can’t hit, for starters, and similar all-glove/no-bat shortstops like Adeiny Hechavarria and Jose Iglesias will be available for nothing but cash as free agents. Perhaps you buy last year’s power breakout — Ahmed went from six homers and a 47.7% ground ball rate in 2017 to 16 and 40.8% in 2018, respectively — but there’s not much offensive potential here at all. If the Yankees don’t pursue Ahmed, it’ll likely be because a) they’re aiming higher, or b) they view the free agent shortstops as comparable.

RHP Archie Bradley

Why would the Yankees want him? The Yankees clearly valuable a deep bullpen and the 26-year-old Bradley had been among the best relievers in baseball the last two years, throwing 144.2 innings with a 2.68 ERA (3.15 FIP) and very good strikeout (26.3%) and walk (7.0%) rates. Bradley is under team control through 2021 (MLBTR projects $2.0M in 2019) and he’s obviously very good. He’d help any bullpen. (I’m curious to see whether some team tries to pick him up and gives him another chance to start.)

Why would the Yankees steer clear? No good reason, really. I suppose the jump in home run rate is a red flag — Bradley went from a 0.49 HR/9 (7.4 HR/FB%) last year to 1.13 HR/9 (13.8 HR/FB%) this year — and the cost might be prohibitive given how hard it can be to acquire quality relievers these days. Otherwise Bradley seems like exactly the kind of reliever the Yankees would be interested in adding. Young, cheap, strikeouts. He right up their alley.

1B Paul Goldschmidt

Why would the Yankees want him? Goldschmidt is on the short list of the best players in baseball and I think he’s the best first baseman in the game overall. He started slowly this year and still finished at .290/.389/.533 (144 wRC+) with 35 doubles and 33 home runs. Goldschmidt doesn’t really steal bases anymore — he went 7-for-11 (64%) on the bases this season, two years after going 32-for-37 (86%) — but who cares when he hits like he does? Add in excellent defense and a cheap $14.5M salary for 2019, and adding this dude is a no-brainer.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? The only reason is cost. The D’Backs figure to have a high asking price (as they should) and the Yankees might not want to trade all those prospects for one season of Goldschmidt, even as good as he is. He turns 32 next year and I’m not sure signing him long-term would be the wise idea. Goldschmidt did set a new full season high strikeout rate this year (25.1%), though that’s not excessive or worrisome at this point. That’s an acceptable strikeout rate given what he does at the plate. Goldschmidt is one of the best players in the world and the only reason the Yankees might avoid him is cost. Arizona will probably ask for the moon.

RHP Zack Greinke

Why would the Yankees want him? The Yankees need starting pitchers, and, even with his 35th birthday coming up later this month, Greinke still threw 207.2 innings with a 3.21 ERA (3.71 FIP) with very good strikeout (23.1%) and walk (5.1%) rates this season. He got a good amount of ground balls (45.1%) as well. Greinke reminds me so much of Mike Mussina. He has a very deep arsenal (four-seamer, two-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup) and well as command and pitching know-how that borders on generational. Even the delivery and follow through remind me of Mussina. Greinke is durable (200 innings eight times in the last eleven years), he’s never had a serious arm injury, and his pitching style should allow him to age well, in theory.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? Dig in and you can find a reason to steer clear of any player. Greinke’s average fastball velocity (90.0 mph) this past season was the lowest of his career and it’s been trending downward the last few years, which is completely normal at his age. That reduced fastball has led to more home runs (1.21 HR/9 and 15.0 HR/FB% the last three years), which is no fun. Also, Greinke is owed $104.5M the next three seasons. That’s a ton of money. Perhaps the D’Backs would eat money to facilitate a trade — would they turn him into a $20M a year pitcher? — but of course that means giving up better prospects. One thing to note: The Yankees have avoided Greinke whenever he’s become available in trades or free agency because they don’t think he’d mix well with New York.

OF David Peralta

Why would the Yankees want him? Peralta is a sneaky good fit for the Yankees. The former pitcher and independent leaguer hit .293/.352/.516 (130 wRC+) with 30 home runs and a more than acceptable 20.2% strikeout rate in 2018. He’s a left-handed hitter who knows how to pull the ball with authority, and the various defensive stats rate him as an average left fielder. Also, Peralta is under team control another two years (MLBTR projects $7.7M in 2019). The Yankees need a left fielder and they could use another lefty bat, especially following Didi’s injury. Peralta is both those things.

Why would the Yankees steer clear? Peralta is going to need a platoon partner. This past season he hit .318/.377/.568 (150 wRC+) against righties and .237/.294/.399 (86 wRC+) against lefties, and his career split (131 wRC+ vs. 77 wRC+) is drastic as well. At age 31, chances are he’ll slow down a bit going forward and lose some value in the field as well. That’s really about it. As productive as Peralta has been the last few years, he does need a platoon partner and I’m not sure he’s actually an average defender in left field. There does appear to be a fit here, depending on the price.

LHP Robbie Ray

Why would the Yankees want him? The Yankees need starting pitching and the 27-year-old Ray has emerged as one of the best strikeout artists in the game the last few seasons. He posted a 3.93 ERA (4.31 FIP) with 31.4% strikeouts and 13.3% walks in 123.2 innings around an oblique strain in 2018. Over the last three seasons only Chris Sale (33.4%) and Max Scherzer (32.8%) have a higher strikeout rate than Ray (30.6%). He’s a southpaw with good velocity (94.1 mph in 2018), two secondary pitches he throws at least 20% of the time each (curveball, slider), and two years of team control remaining (MLBTR projects $6.1M in 2019). Aren’t the Yankees looking for someone pretty much exactly like this?

Why would the Yankees steer clear? Remember how I mentioned Ray has the third highest strikeout rate over the last three seasons? Well, he also has the fifth highest walk rate (10.8%) as well as a higher than you’d like home run rate (1.29 HR/9 and 16.1 HR/FB%). That’s in the non-DH league, remember. Walks and home runs tend to not mix well with Yankee Stadium and the AL East in general. Also, the Yankees are spin rate believers — their average 2,364 rpm four-seamer spin rate was second highest in baseball this season behind the Astros (2,366 rpm) — and Ray’s spin rates are not good. His fastball spin rate is almost exactly league average — you want either high spin (swings and misses) or low spin (grounders) on a fastball — and both the slider and curveball spin rates are below average, which is bad. Ray is intriguing, for sure, but he might not pass the analytics test.

* * *

As always, take this “they’re willing to listen to offers” report with a grain of salt, because every team is willing to listen at all times. The GM wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t listen. In Arizona’s case, their late season collapse and closing window suggests they will indeed consider trading away their top remaining players to kick start a rebuild. A rebuild feels imminent.

The D’Backs have several players who could interest the Yankees, most notably Goldschmidt and Peralta. Ahmed, Bradley, and Ray are possible targets as well. (Greinke strikes me as a long shot.) Those dudes are worth a deeper dive as we get into the offseason. Other possible targets include lefty Andrew Chafin, righty Zack Godley, righty Yoshihisa Hirano, and utility man Chris Owings. I suspect we’ll hear the Yankees and D’Backs connected in several trade rumors this winter.

Manny Machado is doing all the wrong things this postseason and it probably won’t matter to the Yankees one bit

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(Harry How/Getty)

Eight games into the 2018 postseason, Orioles turned Dodgers shortstop Manny Machado is hitting .265/.306/.588 (140 wRC+) with three home runs in 36 plate appearances. The AVG and OBP are a little low, but it’s a super small size, so I wouldn’t sweat it at all. Machado’s been quite productive in this year’s postseason thus far.

Of course, no one is talking about Machado’s production right now. All the focus is on some recent on-field antics that range from “that’s not what you want to see” to “that’s dirty.” It all started in NLCS Game Two, when Machado casually jogged out a routine ground ball. He was going to be out even with full hustle, but Machado didn’t even do the bare minimum hustle, and it just looked bad.

During a chat with Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), Machado said “there’s no excuse for it honestly,” but also doubled down on not hustling. Amazingly, he admitted he’s pretty much never going to hustle. From Rosenthal:

“Obviously I’m not going to change, I’m not the type of player that’s going to be ‘Johnny Hustle,’ and run down the line and slide to first base and … you know, whatever can happen. That’s just not my personality, that’s not my cup of tea, that’s not who I am.”

Machado said the quiet part out loud. This dude is a few weeks away from signing a $300M-ish contract and he came out and admitted he’s not going to hustle. Not the best timing, Manny! Anything that can make prospective employers say “if this is how he plays now, what’s he going to do after I give him a huge contract?” His agent can’t be happy.

To be clear, I don’t think the lack of hustle on that play is a big deal. Does it look bad? Yes, absolutely, especially in the postseason. Generally speaking though, I’m willing to overlook a player not running out a routine ground ball. We went through it for years with Robinson Cano. It’s really not a big deal. Running out grounders doesn’t create an error often. Not often enough to get upset about.

Anyway, after the non-hustle drama, Machado made a pair of questionable slides in NLCS Game Three. One of them was deemed to have violated the second base slide rule. Machado went out of his way to make contact with Brewers shortstop Orlando Arcia. The play was reviewed and ruled an automatic double play. To me, this is a clear violation of the slide rule. Machado intended to initiate contact.

“We talk about it a lot when you go into second base that you have to really make an attempt to hold on to the bag or not try to — it’s a safe play, as far as trying to protect the infielder,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts after the game. “And so Manny knows that. We talk about it all the time. And they looked at the review and they got it right. Because you do have to make a very good effort to hold on to the bag, and apparently we didn’t.”

That slide falls more into the “that’s not what you want see” category than the “that’s dirty” category, I think. Even with the new slide rule, we still see guys go in hard at second base to try to break up a double play, and they called Machado on it. It was a close postseason game, the Dodgers were having trouble scoring runs, and Machado tried to ensure the rally stayed alive. Eh. Not the worst crime a player can commit on the field. I don’t think there was intent to injure.

In Game Four last night, however, Machado made his most egregious play of the NLCS, when he straight up kicked Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar in the ankle as he ran through first base. Machado and Aguilar yapped at each other a bit then hugged it out later in the game, after Machado reached first base, but I don’t think that forgives anything. Here’s the full video. Here’s the most damning angle:

Man, that is bad. An inexcusable play, really. It’s tough for me to look at that and think it was something other than an attempt to injure. What could Machado have possibly been doing otherwise? I’m not normally one to advocate throwing at hitters, but if there was ever a reason to wear one in the ribs, that’s it. Christian Yelich called it a “dirty play from a dirty player” after the game.

“I play baseball, I try to go out there and win for my team. If that’s their comments, that’s their comments, I can’t do nothing about that,” Machado said. “I was trying to get over him and hit his foot. If that’s dirty, that’s dirty, I don’t know, call it what you want. We go way back. Whatever happens on the field happens in the field, stays between the lines.”

Machado has a history of run-ins with opposing teams. There was the bat throw incident in 2014 that resulted in a five-game suspension. He also spiked Dustin Pedroia last season and the result was a season-long beanball war between the Red Sox and Orioles. Between that stuff and this postseason’s heel turn, Machado is in the news for all the wrong reasons right now. He has become baseball’s villain.

And here’s the thing: I don’t think it will matter one bit to the Yankees or any other team planning to pursue Machado as a free agent this winter. Teams, including the Yankees, have shown time and time again they will overlook stuff like this — as well as more serious off-the-field incidents — when building their roster. The top priority has been, and always will be, “can he help us win?” With Machado, the answer is very clearly yes.

Perhaps if Machado were a lesser player, his history and this postseason would push teams away. Machado is not a lesser player though. He is an elite player — he’s no worse than what, a top ten player in the world? — who is right smack in the prime of his career at age 26. These players rarely become available. The teams with the wherewithal to sign him are going to continue to pursue him just as aggressively as they would’ve before these NLCS incidents because he’s so good at baseball.

The Yankees have a clear need for Machado, perhaps moreso than any other contender. They could slot him at shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns from his Tommy John surgery, then slide him over to third base with Miguel Andujar moving somewhere (first base? left field?) that better hides his defensive shortcomings. The Yankees are a win-now team and Machado helps them, well, win now. And, at the end of the day, the Yankees and pretty much every other team in baseball has made it clear that is the most important thing.

Update: Didi Gregorius undergoes Tommy John surgery

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(Presswire)

October 17th: Gregorius had his Tommy John surgery today, the Yankees announced. The surgery went “as expected.” It was performed by Dr. David Altchek in New York. The Yankees did not announce a timetable for his return. They’ve been out of that game since the “Aaron Judge will return to game action in three weeks” fiasco. Gregorius is expected back sometime next summer.

October 12th: The 2019 Yankees have already suffered a big blow. Earlier this afternoon the Yankees announced Didi Gregorius will undergo Tommy John surgery. No surgery date has been set but it will happen soon. Gregorius experienced discomfort in the elbow during the ALDS and went for an MRI earlier this week.

Neither Aaron Boone nor Brian Cashman could pinpoint when exactly the injury happened, though Boone mentioned they believe it happened at Fenway Park, when Gregorius went out to play a well-struck ball off the Green Monster. It might be the play, but I can’t be sure:

“On the throw, (Gregorius) felt it. He just got checked out by our doctor and unfortunately he needs Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm,” said Cashman. Gregorius initially complained of discomfort after that game and then played the rest of the series with the injury. Those two bounced throws in Game Four weren’t an accident, apparently.

Cashman confirmed Gregorius had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow when they initially acquired him from Arizona — he missed about three weeks with an elbow strain in 2013 — but he was asymptomatic until now. “(The injury) was the result of a sleeping giant, I guess,” the GM added.

The typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable for position players is 6-9 months, though Cashman cautioned they won’t have a clear picture until after surgery. The injury is to Didi’s right elbow, his throwing elbow, and Jay Jaffe found that middle infielders who had Tommy John surgery on their throwing elbow averaged a ten-month rehab. Gleyber Torres was back within eight months when he had his elbow reconstruction, but the injury was to his non-throwing elbow.

If there is a a silver lining for the Yankees here, it’s the timing. The Yankees have the entire offseason to address the shortstop position — or second base position should they slider Gleyber over — but they did just lose one of their best players and one of their few left-handed hitters of note. This injury is a very big blow. No doubt about it.

As for Gregorius, the timing is terrible. He is scheduled to become a free agent next offseason and now he won’t have a full, healthy contract season. It’s unclear whether the Yankees were planning to explore a long-term extension with Gregorius, but, if they were, they might hold off to see what he looks like post elbow surgery. A major bummer.

Cashman was of course asked about impending free agent Manny Machado and he of course ducked the question. First of all, he can’t talk about players under contract with another team. Secondly, it would do him no good to come out and say they’re going to go all out to sign Machado in the wake of the Gregorius injury. He’s got to play it cool.

“We’re scheduling the pro scouting meetings — we have those scheduled sooner than we wanted to — but we’ll go through our process and weigh all of the information,” said Cashman when asked about Machado and free agents in general. Clearly though, the Machado situation just got much more interesting (and for a bad reason).

For now, there’s not much the Yankees can do other than hope the surgery goes well and Gregorius has a swift recovery. The offseason won’t begin in earnest for another few weeks, and, at that point, they’ll get together and figure out how to weather the storm until Gregorius returns.

The Incomparable Didi Gregorius [2018 Season Review]

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(Getty)

In 2016, Didi Gregorius set career-best marks in runs, home runs, RBI, strikeout rate, and wRC+. In 2017, he once again set new high water marks in those metrics, to go along with a career-high 4.0 fWAR. And this time last year we were all wondering what he was capable of for an encore.

As a reminder, here is what the projection systems had to say:

  • Steamer: .269/.314/.436, 20 HR, 5.3% BB, 13.4% K, 566 PA
  • ZiPS: .267/.306/.430, 20 HR, 4.7% BB, 13.5% K, 593 PA
  • PECOTA: .262/.312/.411, 18 HR, 5.8% BB, 14.7% K, 636 PA

All three systems predicted a bit of regression for Gregorius, essentially predicting a return to his (still good) 2016 form. And, while that would have been disappointing, I’m sure that most of us would have accepted a solid defensive shortstop with a league-average bat. That’s not what happened, though.

The Ridiculously Hot Start

Gregorius reached base safely in his first five games, by the end of which he was slashing .444/.524/1.111 with two home runs and nine RBI. He also drew three walks in those five games, which might just be the most impressive aspect of that stretch. Well, that or his 8 RBI game against the Rays on April 3:

He didn’t quite maintain that torrid start, but he finished April hitting .321/.427/.735 (197 wRC+) with 10 HR and more walks (18) than strikeouts (16). And when the calendar flipped to May he was tied for the major league lead in fWAR with Mookie Betts. It was amazing and surreal to watch, and I loved every single second of it.

Unfortunately…

A Ridiculously Awful May

Gregorius was as bad in May as he was good in April; and that might be underselling his badness. His slash line was .149/.184/.213, which is good for a -1 wRC+. He stopped walking and hitting for power, and he looked helpless at the plate more often than not.  Gregorius’ batted ball profile shows a clear change in contact, too:

(FanGraphs)

His line-drive rate tumbled, his groundball spiked, and flyballs stopped leaving the yard. His HR/FB rate can be attributed to a simple yet aggressive bit of bad luck and/or regression to the mean – but the quality of contact was clearly not there. And at the end of May he was hitting .240/.315/.479, which isn’t all that far removed from his 2017 line of .287/.318/.478 (with way more power and walks).

The Return to Form

Gregorius closed out May with a little hot streak, reaching base in four straight games via five singles, a walk, and an HBP. And from June 1 through August 19 he raked once more, batting .292/.347/.485 with 11 HR, 7.3% walks, and 11.4% strikeouts (124 wRC+) in 289 PA. His batted ball profile basically split the difference between April and May, to the tune of 21.3% line drives, 40.9% grounders, 37.8% flyballs, and 12.6% HR/FB. That’s basically his career norms, with the exception of the still-elevated HR/FB rate, so it wasn’t difficult to say that this was probably who Gregorius is at this point.

Why the arbitrary cut-off of August 19, you ask? Well, with the news of his impending Tommy John surgery you may have forgotten that he missed nearly three weeks with a heel injury:

I still don’t know how he bruised his heel there, but I suppose that’s not terribly relevant. And, more importantly, he returned with a vengeance, batting .250/.344/.596 with 5 HR (149 wRC+) from September 7 through the end of the season. It’s worth noting that there was another injury scare mixed-in there, as torn cartilage in his wrist kept him out from for a handful of games in late-September, but he looked fine in what amounted to two tune-up games against the Red Sox to close the regular season.

All told, Gregorius hit .268/.335/.494 (121 wRC+) with 27 HR and 4.6 fWAR. If you’re keeping score at home, he once again set career-bests in runs, home runs, strikeout rate, wRC+, and fWAR, as well walks, OBP, and SLG. By FanGraphs’ reckoning he was the 8th best shortstop in the game, between Trea Turner and Jean Segura. That’s not too shabby.

The Doubly Dreadful Playoffs

Gregorius, like many Yankees, didn’t do so well in the postseason. He hit .234/.222/.294 in 19 PA, and didn’t draw a walk in five games. He was a big part of the failed comeback in the final game of the team’s season, though, hitting a single in the bottom of the 9th to give the team two on and none out. It was a disappointing ending to a brilliant season.

Of course, that wasn’t quite the end, was it? As I mentioned above, shortly after the Yankees bowed out of the playoffs we found out that Gregorius would undergo Tommy John surgery, which has an unclear recovery period. Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs found that infielders that had TJS on their throwing arms have taken anywhere from 6 to 15 months to return to the field; and one player, T.J. Rivera, hasn’t returned since having the procedure in September of last year. The mean is right around 10 months, which would put Gregorius on-track to return sometime in August. Which is … less than ideal.

What’s Next?

Of all of the players that we’re slated to review, Gregorius might be the most difficult to think about going forward.

The soon-to-be 29-year-old is a free agent after next season, and he currently lacks a timetable for return. The Yankees anticipate a return in 2019, and there are rumblings that they expect him to play the majority of the season. That seems aggressive, given what we know – but they know way more about the severity of the tear than we do, so it wouldn’t be out of the question that he could be on an expedited recovery plan. And if he could return before the midpoint of the season (say, sometime in June), it might be worth discussing short-term replacements – a return engagement with Neil Walker or signing a similarly versatile utility player (while moving Gleyber Torres to short), perhaps? – as opposed to acting as though the sky is falling.

If, however, the Yankees expect him back in August, it might be worth pursuing another full-time option in the infield. They have a ready-made replacement at short in Torres, which is great because it broadens their pool for replacements. But counting on a core player to return for 50 or so games and immediately return to form for a contending team feels irresponsible. And then there’s also the fact that he’s slated to earn over $12 MM through arbitration next year, which is a hefty figure for someone that might play less than a third of the season; a non-tender or contract extension buying out this year and a year or two of free agency might be in the cards in that case. These are not the issues that I was hoping to tackle in this review at all – but here we are.

On the none doom-and-gloom side of the equation, I do think it’s safe to say that the Gregorius of 2017 and 2018 is the real deal. So there’s that.

The qualifying offer is reportedly set $17.9M this winter and it will have zero impact on the Yankees

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Two of these three are free agents. (Stephen Brashear/Getty)

No later than three weeks from yesterday, free agency will open and the 2018-19 offseason will really get underway. Well, at least in theory. MLB free agency tends to be slow-moving — that was especially true last winter — whereas other sports see a big rush of signings on Day One. Much like the MLB season, MLB free agency is a marathon, not a sprint.

According to both Joel Sherman and Buster Olney, the qualifying offer has been set at $17.9M for the upcoming offseason. That is up slightly from $17.4M last offseason. As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. Teams must make a free agent the qualifying offer to receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

The Yankees have a small army of players due to becoming free agents this winter — eight players on their ALCS roster will be free agents and a ninth has an option — and, despite that, the qualifying offer will be a non-factor for them. None of those eight (or nine) players will get a qualifying offer. We can drop them into one of three buckets.

Not Eligible For The Qualifying Offer

  • Zach Britton
  • J.A. Happ
  • Adeiny Hechavarria
  • Lance Lynn
  • Andrew McCutchen
  • David Robertson
  • Neil Walker

A player must spend the entire regular season with his team to be eligible for the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, Hechavarria, Lynn, and McCutchen all came over in midseason trades and thus can not receive the qualifying offer. Britton, Happ, and McCutchen would’ve been qualifying offer candidates otherwise. Hechavarria and Lynn wouldn’t have received the qualifying offer even if eligible. Their production doesn’t warrant it.

Also, thanks to the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, players can only receive the qualifying offer once in their careers. The Yankees made Robertson the qualifying offer during the 2014-15 offseason and the Mets made Walker the qualifying offer during the 2016-17 offseason. Robertson rejected the qualifying offer and the Yankees received a draft pick, which they used on Kyle Holder, when he signed with the White Sox. Walker accepted the qualifying offer and returned to the Mets. Anyway, because they received the qualifying offer previously, Robertson and Walker are not eligible to receive it this winter despite spending the entire year in pinstripes.

Not Getting The Qualifying Offer

  • CC Sabathia

Sabathia is indeed eligible for the qualifying offer. He spent the entirety of this past season with the Yankees and he’s never received the qualifying offer before. Back when Sabathia first signed with the Yankees, the old Elias Type-A/Type-B free agent compensation system ruled the land. CC is eligible for the qualifying offer this winter.

That said, the Yankees are not giving Sabathia the qualifying offer. They didn’t give him one last offseason and there’s no reason to give him one this offseason. Sabathia would take that one-year, $17.9M contract in a heartbeat. He made $10M this season and, regardless of whether he re-signs with the Yankees or heads elsewhere, he figures to sign a similar one-year contract worth $10M-ish this winter. Sabathia’s no longer worth $17.9M a year. He’d take the qualifying offer. No doubt about it.

The Option Decision

  • Brett Gardner

Gardner has never been a free agent in his career and he might get the opportunity this winter. The Yankees hold a $12.5M club option on Gardner for next season — the option includes a $2M buyout, so it is effectively a $10.5M decision — and, if they decline the option, they’re not going to make him the qualifying offer. They wouldn’t pass on bringing him back for $12.5M only to give him a $17.9M offer, you know? Gardner would take the qualifying offer. Looking for more guaranteed money as a free agent, even spread across two or three years, would be pushing it.

* * *

The Yankees won’t tender any of their free agents the qualifying offer, but, in all likelihood, they’re going to win up signing a qualifying free agent. Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Adam Ottavino? I don’t know, but someone. (Manny Machado was traded at midseason and is ineligible for the qualifying offer.) Here are the compensation rules for teams that sign a qualified free agent:

  • Signing team receives revenue sharing money: Forfeits their third highest draft pick.
  • Signing team paid luxury tax during most recent season: Forfeits second and fifth highest draft picks, plus $1M in international bonus money.
  • All other teams: Forfeit second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money.

The Yankees sure as heck don’t receive revenue sharing money — they pay more into revenue sharing than any other team — and they successfully avoided paying luxury tax in 2018, which means they fall into the “all other teams” bracket. They’ll give up their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in bonus money for the 2019-20 international signing period for every qualified free agent. All first round picks are protected now.

The new free agent compensation rules are pretty lax these days — that is especially true now that the Yankees avoided paying luxury tax — and I can’t see how giving up your second highest draft pick and $500,000 in international bonus money would stop the Yankees from signing a qualifying free agent. Back in the day teams had to weigh giving up their first round pick to sign a mid-range guy. Now only the best of the best get the qualifying offer and you get to keep your first round pick. Free agent compensation is no real concern now.

Even with all those impending free agents, the Yankees do not have a qualifying offer candidate this offseason — only four of their nine possible free agents are even eligible for the qualifying offer — and the penalties to sign a qualified free agent are not harsh at all. If the Yankees don’t sign any of their final year arbitration-eligibles long-term this winter, they’ll have several qualifying offer candidates next season. This year though, nothing. The Yankees won’t gain any extra draft picks. They could lose some non-first rounders, however, and that is not a big deal.