2015 Trade Deadline Open Thread: Monday

Hamels. (David Banks/Getty)
Hamels. (David Banks/Getty)

The 2015 non-waiver trade deadline is this coming Friday at 4pm ET. The Yankees are currently 55-42 with a +34 run differential on the season, giving them a 6.5-game lead in the AL East. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at a healthy 93.1%. Despite that, the roster could use some reinforcements, particularly at second base and on the mound.

“We’ve had conversations with every club willing to sell, finding out what they’re willing to sell and what their price tags are. You engage everyone about everything,” said Brian Cashman to Ken Rosenthal recently. The Yankees are said to prefer rental players — their trade deadline activity in recent years backs that up — but they’ve reportedly “sworn off” dealing top prospects for said rentals. We’ll see.

We’ll keep track of any Yankees-related rumors right here throughout the day. The team tends to do things very quietly, almost all of their major moves seem to come out of nowhere, so I can’t promise you many updates. Especially not this early in the week. Either way, keep tabs on everything  and talk about all things trade deadline right here throughout the day.

  • 6:17pm ET: The A’s have traded Tyler Clippard to the Mets for minor league righty Casey Meisner, the teams announced. So scratch Clippard off the list. Meisner was the Amazin’s third round pick last summer. He’s similar to a healthy Austin DeCarr, if you’re wondering.
  • 5:00pm ET: The Dodgers and Rangers are currently seen as the favorites to land Cole Hamels. The Phillies continue to demand either Judge or Severino from the Yankees. [Heyman]
  • 3:36pm ET: The Yankees continue to show interest in Ben Zobrist but they are one of many. The Pirates, Royals, Angels, and Cubs are also trying him to pry him away from Oakland. [Heyman]
  • 12:53pm ET: As expected, the Yankees continue to talk both starters and relievers with other teams, especially righty relievers. The plan could be to acquire a reliever then moving Adam Warren back into the rotation. [Heyman]
  • 11:30am ET: The Yankees have indeed contacted the Phillies about Cole Hamels, which is no surprise. They had a scout at his no-hitter over the weekend. The Phillies asked for either Aaron Judge or Luis Severino, but the Yankees are not planning to move Judge, Severino, Greg Bird, or other top prospects. Philadelphia is also said to be seeking a catcher in any trade. [Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, Jim Salisbury, Buster Olney]
  • In addition to Hamels, the Yankees are keeping tabs on basically every available starting pitcher. That list includes Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, and Mat Latos, among others. It remains to see whether the Tigers will cave and make David Price available. [Joel Sherman]
  • The Yankees are a potential landing spot for Tyler Clippard, who could be dealt as soon as today. The club has also been scouting Padres relievers recently, presumably Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit. Kimbrel is Kimbrel, and the Yanks have shown a bunch of interest in Benoit in recent years. [Susan Slusser, Jon Morosi]
  • The Yankees are looking for an upgrade at second base. There’s not much out there aside from Ben Zobrist, however. They have zero interest in Aaron Hill and could simply recall Rob Refsnyder if they’re unable to make a deal for help at second. [Jon Heyman]
  • Marlins righty Mat Latos has been linked to the Yankees. The Marlins are in sell mode — they’ve already traded ex-closer Steve Cishek to the Cardinals — and have plenty of rental players to offer. Here is our Scouting The Market post on Latos and other Miami players. [Joe Frisaro]
  • Athletics director of player personnel Billy Owens has scouting Double-A Trenton recently. That is definitely not the most prospect-laden team in the system. Scott Kazmir has already been traded, but the Yankees have interest in Zobrist. [Matt Kardos]
  • The Yankees and Reds did have discussions about Johnny Cueto before he was traded to the Royals. Apparently Ivan Nova‘s name came up. Talks didn’t advance very far. [George King]

Reminder: Your trade proposal sucks.

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Aaron Judge tops Baseball America’s midseason top ten Yankees prospects lists

(Rob Carr/Getty)
(Rob Carr/Getty)

So I guess we’re in midseason prospect list update season now. On Friday, Baseball America (subs. req’d) posted their updated midseason list of the top ten Yankees prospects. They posted an updated midseason top ten for every team over the last two weeks. Their updated midseason top 50 prospects list came out last week.

Here is New York’s updated top ten according to Baseball America:

  1. OF Aaron Judge (13th on the top 50)
  2. RHP Luis Severino (17th on the top 50)
  3. SS Jorge Mateo
  4. 1B Greg Bird
  5. C Gary Sanchez
  6. 3B Eric Jagielo
  7. 2B Rob Refsnyder
  8. LHP Jacob Lindgren
  9. RHP Domingo Acevedo
  10. RHP Rookie Davis

Not included in any of the top tens are 2015 draft picks. I’m certain RHP James Kaprielian would have slotted into the top ten somewhere had they been included. Otherwise the top eight spots are pretty self-explanatory. Quibble with the order if you want, but those eight names make sense there.

Acevedo and Davis are the big risers — I didn’t have either on my pre-draft top 30 list, though Davis was an oversight and I should have included him. Acevedo has “a fastball that has touched triple-digits” while Davis has “taken steps forward over the last two years, especially in terms of command,” according to the write-up. Unless LHP Ian Clarkin has some kind of a career-threatening injury, I’d still take him over Acevedo or Davis.

OF Dustin Fowler, RHP Brady Lail, and LHP Jordan Montgomery are all listed as prospects on the rise while RHP Jose Ramirez is tabbed as a player whose stock is on the way down. Clarkin (elbow), RHP Domingo German (Tommy John surgery), RHP Ty Hensley (Tommy John surgery), and C Luis Torrens (shoulder) are all out with season-ending injuries, which knocked them down prospect lists. Can’t win ’em all.

Aaron Judge ranks 13th on Keith Law’s midseason top 50 prospects list

(Presswire)
(Presswire)

Over at ESPN (subs. req’d), Keith Law posted his midseason list of the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues today. Dodgers SS Corey Seager, the consensus top prospect in baseball following the wave of recent promotions, is predictably ranked first. Phillies SS J.P. Crawford and Nationals RHP Lucas Giolito rank second and third, respectively.

The Yankees have one prospect on Law’s midseason list, and it’s OF Aaron Judge at No. 13. Judge also ranked 13th on both Baseball America’s and Baseball Prospectus’ midseason lists last week. So I guess that makes him the consensus 13th best prospect in baseball. How about that? Here’s a snippet of Law’s blurb on Judge:

(Judge is) all muscle and is shockingly athletic for someone his size, an average or better runner with a 65 or 70 arm. Judge has good feel to hit and enormous raw power, and he commands the strike zone well, with a lower strikeout rate than you’d expect from a guy with arms this long. He covers the inner third so well that he’s more vulnerable to stuff away, but overall has kept his strikeout rate to about 25 percent or better even as he has moved up three times in the past 14 months.

RHP Luis Severino did not make Law’s midseason list but he is one of seven honorable mentions, so I guess that means he would have made his midseason top 57 prospects list. Round numbers are sexier though. Law does say Severino is “more likely” to be a reliever than starter down the road because of his delivery. Judge ranked 23rd on Law’s preseason list while Severino was on the outside looking in.

Also, in this afternoon’s chat (subs. req’d), Law said the Yankees currently have five top 100 caliber prospects in Judge, Severino, 1B Greg Bird, SS Jorge Mateo, and the just signed RHP James Kaprielian. (Not necessarily in that order.) Bird ranked 80th on his preseason list and Law says Kaprielian would be “in the 51-100 range, probably around 75th.” Also, Law said LHP Ian Clarkin “would be a top 100 guy if he were healthy,” which he’s not, obviously. Hopefully he will be one day.

Taking stock of the Yankees’ trade chips leading up to the deadline

Sanchez. (Star-Ledger)
Sanchez. (Star-Ledger)

Over the last few seasons the Yankees have focused on rental players at the trade deadline while doing their long-term shopping in the offseason. That isn’t always the case — Martin Prado had two and a half years left on his contract at the time of the trade last year — but that definitely seems to be their preference. Hal Steinbrenner already confirmed rentals are the plan this summer as well.

Earlier this week we heard the Yankees have “sworn off” trading their top prospects for rentals, and that’s all well and good, but every team says that this time of year. If the Tigers offer David Price for Luis Severino, are the Yankees really going to say no to that? Probably not. Anyway, the Yankees have some needs heading into the trade deadline as always (righty reliever, second base, etc.), so let’s sort through their trade chips to see who may and may not be dealt this summer.

The Untouchables, Sorta

The Yankees rarely trade players off their big league roster at the trade deadline, and, when they do, it’s usually a Vidal Nuno or Yangervis Solarte type. Not someone who was a key part of the roster. I think Dellin Betances is the team’s best trade chip right now — best as in he’d bring the largest return by himself — but they’re not going to trade him for obvious reasons. Same with Michael Pineda and, yes, even Didi Gregorius.

Among prospects, Severino and Aaron Judge are the closest to untouchable, and I don’t think they should be completely off the table. They’re very good prospects, not elite best in baseball prospects, and the Yankees should at least be willing to listen. (I suspect they are.) Does that mean they should give them away? Of course not. The Yankees would need a difference-maker in return, likely a difference-maker they control beyond this season.

The Outfielders

Alright, now let’s get to the prospects who might actually be traded this summer. We have to start with the outfielders. The Yankees have a ton of them. You could argue too many, though I won’t. Just this season the Yankees have had Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott, and Ramon Flores make their big league debuts. Judge was just promoted to Triple-A Scranton, where the Yankees also have Ben Gamel and Tyler Austin. Jake Cave is with Double-A Trenton.

Flores. (Mike Stobe/Getty)
Flores. (Mike Stobe/Getty)

That’s a lot of outfielders! Obviously some are more valuable than others, especially with Heathcott (quad) and Williams (shoulder) on the DL, but that’s a legitimate surplus the Yankees can use in a trade(s) at the deadline. Judge is the big prize here, though he’s supposedly untouchable. My guess is healthy Williams and Flores have the most trade value out of everyone else because teams could realistically plug them right onto their MLB roster. The Yankees are in position to trade a young outfielder or two while still having enough depth for themselves.

The “Blocked” Prospects

Prospects who don’t necessarily fit into a club’s long-term plans are prime trade bait. Gary Sanchez sure seems likely to be made available this summer assuming he returns from his bruised hand reasonably soon. (He was hit by a foul tip last week.) The Yankees value defense behind the plate very highly. They’ve made that clear. Sanchez, while improving slowly and steadily, isn’t much of a defender at all. The bat is more projection than results — 108 wRC+ in just over 800 Double-A plate appearances from 2013-15 — which isn’t uncommon for a 22-year-old.

Sanchez is still only 22 but he is also in his second minor league option year, meaning he has to stick in MLB or be exposed to waivers come the 2017 season. That’s still a long way away in the grand scheme of things. Long enough for his defense to improve to the Yankees’ high standards? Probably not. It’s not impossible, just unlikely. As with Jesus Montero and Peter O’Brien before him, Sanchez seems very likely to be dealt no matter how promising his bat appears simply because it doesn’t look like he’ll be a good catcher and doesn’t really have another position.

Eric Jagielo is blocked but not really — the Yankees did just sign Chase Headley to a four-year contract, but Jagielo probably won’t stay at third base long-term anyway. He might be headed for left field or, more likely, first base. And, if that is the case, Jagielo’s future impacts Greg Bird, a true first base prospect. Mark Teixeira‘s contract will expire after next season and ideally one of these two will step into to replace him at first. It’s easy to say the Yankees should look into their crystal ball, decide whether Jagielo or Bird will be the first baseman of the future and trade the other, but that’s not realistic. Either way, Jagielo and Bird shouldn’t be off-limits in trade talks.

Stock Down

Coming into the season, I would have said prospects like Ian Clarkin, Domingo German, Ty Hensley, and Luis Torrens fit into the “candidates to be traded” group for different reasons. Maybe even Jacob Lindgren too. They’ve all since suffered significant injuries. German and Hensley both had Tommy John surgery, Torrens had shoulder surgery, and Lindgren had a bone spur taken out of his elbow this week. He might be back in September. German, Hensley, and Torrens are done for the year.

Clarkin has not pitched in an official game this year because of some kind of elbow problem. He was shut down with tendinitis in Spring Training and reportedly pitched in an Extended Spring Training game back in May, but we haven’t heard any updates since, and he hasn’t joined any of the minor league affiliates. (Extended Spring Training ended a few days ago.) It’s hard not to think the worst in a situation like this. Clarkin and these other guys are still eligible to be traded, but injured non-elite prospects usually don’t have much value. The Yankees are better off holding onto them and hoping they rebuild value with a healthy 2016.

Refsnyder. (MiLB.com)
Refsnyder. (MiLB.com)

Not As Valuable As You May Think

Like the fans of the other 29 teams, we overvalue the Yankees’ prospects. We’re not unique. Everyone does it. Rob Refsnyder? He’s slightly more valuable than Tony Renda, who New York just acquired for a reliever who had been designated for assignment. An all-hit/no-glove prospect pushing a .750 OPS at Triple-A isn’t bringing back a whole lot. Think Pete O’Brien without the power.

Jorge Mateo? He’s loaded with ability. He’s also 20 and in Low-A, so three years away from MLB, give or take. The further away a player is from MLB, the less trade value he has. Same deal with Miguel Andujar and Tyler Wade. These guys absolutely have trade value. Just not as a centerpiece in a significant deal. They’re second or third pieces in a big deal, headliners in a smaller deal.

Miscellaneous depth arms fit here as well. Jose Ramirez, Tyler Webb, Branden Pinder, guys like that. They’re all interesting for different reasons and hey, they might have some MLB value for a few years, but they’re basically throw-ins. And no, lumping two or three good prospects together doesn’t equal one great prospect. Most teams already have prospects like the guys in this section in their farm system. They aren’t game-changers in trade negotiations.

Straight Cash, Homey

The Yankees’ single greatest trade chip is their payroll and their ability to absorb salary. That helped them get Prado at the trade deadline last year, for example. Or Bobby Abreu years ago. Whether Hal Steinbrenner is willing to take on substantial money to facilitate a trade is another matter. I mean, I’d hope so, especially for a rental player who won’t tie down future payroll when the team tries to get under the luxury tax threshold again. The team’s ability to take on big dollars separates them from most other clubs in trade talks. Their financial might is absolutely valuable when talking trades.

* * *

Even if the Yankees do make Severino and Judge off-limits — all indications are they will — I think they have enough mid-range prospects to acquire upgrades at the trade deadline. Not huge ones, we can forget all about Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto is Severino and Judge are off the table, but Sanchez, Jagielo, and the various outfielders will generate some interest. Finding a match will be more difficult than scratching together tradeable prospects, which was an issue for New York for several years in the mid-2000s.

DotF: Sanchez homers again, Bird returns in Trenton’s win

1B Greg Bird was activated off the Double-A Trenton DL, the team announced. He missed the last month with a shoulder strain. 1B/3B Dante Bichette Jr. was send down to High-A Tampa to clear a roster spot. He was hitting .213/.253/.298 (54 wRC+) with the Thunder. Also, LHP Matt Tracy was outrighted off the 40-man roster, reports Chad Jennings. That means he cleared waivers and remains with the organization. The Yankees now have two open 40-man spots.

Triple-A Scranton (10-2 win over Syracuse)

  • CF Mason Williams: 0-5, 1 RBI
  • 2B Rob Refsnyder: 2-5, 2 R — had two hits in his previous 15 at-bats
  • 1B Kyle Roller: 1-5, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • C Austin Romine: 0-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB — one hit in his last 15 at-bats (.067)
  • LF Ben Gamel: 1-2, 2 R, 2 BB
  • RF Tyler Austin: 1-4, 2 K
  • RHP Jaron Long: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 1 HB, 7/3 GB/FB — 62 of 92 pitches were strikes (67%)
  • RHP Nick Rumbelow: 1 IP, zeroes, 2/1 GB/FB — seven of 12 pitches were strikes (58%)
  • RHP Chris Martin: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K — 12 pitches, nine strikes
  • RHP Branden Pinder: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 1/2 GB/FB — 14 of 24 pitches were strikes (58%)

[Read more…]

DotF: Mitchell tosses eight shutout innings in Triple-A win

Got some notes first:

  • 1B Greg Bird (shoulder) took batting practice in Tampa today, according to Nick Peruffo. There’s no timetable for his return — or at least no timetable that has been made public — but taking batting practice means the process of coming back has started.
  • Both 3B Eric Jagielo (No. 14) and SS Jorge Mateo (No. 20) made this week’s Prospect Hot Sheet. 2B Rob Refsnyder, meanwhile, made the Not So Hot Sheet. Zoinks.
  • Chris King posted some firsthand scouting notes on IF Abi Avelino and IF Tyler Wade, calling them a “fun middle-infield duo to watch.” Click the link for more on both players.

Triple-A Scranton (7-0 win over Norfolk)

  • CF Mason Williams: 1-4, 1 R, 1 BB
  • 2B Rob Refsnyder: 2-2, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB — 10.1 BB% this year after 9.5 BB% last year and 14.8 BB% the year before that
  • LF Tyler Austin: 0-4, 2 K
  • RF Ben Gamel: 0-2, 2 R, 2 BB — four walks and two strikeouts in his last six games
  • RHP Bryan Mitchell: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 11/6 GB/FB — 57 of 79 pitches were strikes (72%) … brilliant, wish he could have gotten a chance to finish the game
  • RHP Mark Montgomery: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 2/0 GB/FB — nine pitches, six strikes … 16/5 K/BB in 17.1 innings

[Read more…]

DotF: Andujar goes deep again in Tampa’s win

Double-A Trenton manager Al Pedrique told Nick Peruffo there is no real concern for RHP Luis Severino, who was placed on the 7-day DL yesterday with a blister. He’s expected to miss one start, that’s it. 1B Greg Bird, on the other hand, will miss “a few weeks” with a shoulder strain. Bird is not with the team, he’s in Tampa rehabbing.

Triple-A Scranton (10-2 win over Durham)

  • CF Slade Heathcott: 2-6, 2 R, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 CS — had been in a little 5-for-24 (.208) slump
  • LF Ramon Flores: 0-3, 1 R, 3 BB, 1 K
  • 2B Rob Refsnyder: 1-5, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 E (throwing) — first error in several weeks after a rough defensive start to the year
  • C Austin Romine: 0-2, 1 RBI, 3 BB
  • RHP Jaron Long: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 7/6 GB/FB — 58 of 86 pitches were strikes (67%)
  • RHP Danny Burawa: 1 IP, zeroes, 3/0 GB/FB — nine of 14 pitches were strikes (64%)

[Read more…]