Scouting the Trade Market: Floyd vs. Danks

The trade of Sergio Santos from the White Sox to the Blue Jays signaled that the White Sox were beginning the process of rebuilding, a word which the GM Kenny Williams used himself. Yankee fans have long hoped for the acquisition of the Chicago lefty John Danks, and this was the clearest indication yet that he would become available by trade. Yet Danks isn’t the only pitcher Chicago is now willing to deal. They also expressed willingness to move righty Gavin Floyd. Given the Angels’ signing of C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols, one has to wonder if the Rangers will be extra aggressive in their bid for Japanese righty Yu Darvish. If so, the best route available to the Yankees for the acquisition of another starting pitcher may in fact be a deal with the White Sox. All things considered, who is a better fit for the Yankees, Gavin Floyd or John Danks?

From a performance perspective, it’s difficult to see a lot of daylight between the two pitchers. Over the past five years, they’ve both averaged a strikeout rate around 7.0 and a walk rate around 3.0. Their career ERAs are only 0.07 apart (3.85 for Danks, 3.92 for Floyd) and their career FIPs differ by only 0.03 (4.06 for Danks, 4.03 for Floyd). For all intents and purposes, they get roughly the same number of ground balls.

From a pitching repertoire approach, Danks is your prototypical lefty. He leans heavily on his fastball, but thanks to the tutelage of pitching coach Don Cooper Danks also throws a mean cutter. This isn’t one of those weird Pitch F(x) classification issues, either. Cooper is famous for teaching his pitchers how to throw the cutter. Danks will also mix in a slider on occasion, but his real go-to offspeed pitch is the changeup. Floyd is a similar pitcher, throwing a straight fastball and, yes, a cutter. Floyd will also mix in a changeup infrequently, but his main offspeed pitch is the curveball. From a velocity standpoint they both sit in the low 90s with their fastballs.

There are a few key differences between the two pitchers though. To start, Danks is a lefty and Floyd is a righty. Further, Danks is a solid two years and three months younger than Floyd, and won’t turn 27 years old until the second week in April. Floyd does have a four-inch height advantage over Danks, though, standing in at 6’6″. The biggest difference is perhaps their contract statuses. This is Danks’ final year under contract with the White Sox, and he’ll become a free agent after this season. Floyd will make $7M this year and has a club option for $9.5M for 2013, so he’s under team control for one more year at a desirable salary. Even if the Yankees were to ink Danks to an extension after acquiring him, they’d surely have to pay him more than $10M per season.

From a performance perspective, the two are virtually equal. Danks has an advantage on Floyd in youth, but Floyd’s contract situation is more desirable than Danks. That said, Danks still seems like the preferred candidate amongst fans. Perhaps it’s the fact that he’s a lefty and hearkens one RAB writer back to Andy Pettitte, or perhaps it’s his age and frame that leads one to believe that the best is yet to come. Regardless, the relative proximity in quality between Danks and Floyd will mean that the team’s rotation will be upgraded no matter who they get. Just as long as they get someone.

Yanks take one, trade for another in Rule 5 Draft

Cabral. (Photo Credit: www.prorumors.com)

The Angels agreed to sign both Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this morning, but the Yankees managed to steal the spotlight with their moves during the Rule 5 Draft. Okay, I may be exaggerating a bit. The Yankees selected 26-year-old right-hander Brad Meyers from the Nationals with their pick, then later acquired 22-year-old left-hander Cesar Cabral from the Royals for cash. He was Kansas City’s pick from the Red Sox organization. The Yankees did not lose any players during the Rule 5 Draft, and Greg Golson has been released to make room on the 40-man roster.

Meyers was Washington’s fifth round pick in 2007, and Baseball America ranked him as their 27th best prospect prior to last season. “Meyers pounds the zone with a polished four-pitch mix,” they wrote in their Prospect Handbook. “His 88-90 mph fastball bumps 92, and it plays up because of the deceptive angles created by his lanky body [Ed. note: 6-foot-6, 195 lbs.] and high front side in his delivery (video). He has excellent command of his fastball and three secondary pitches: an average changeup, average slider and a short curve that he uses as a show pitch.”

Meyers. (Photo Credit: John C. Whitehead/The Patriot News)

The problem with Meyers has been health, specifically foot problems. He missed some time with a heel injury in 2009, then suffered a stress fracture in his left foot while jogging after the season. He had surgery, returned to the mound, then missed more time because some screws in his foot were giving him trouble. Meyers made 24 starts (and one relief appearance) in 2011, pitching to a 3.18 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and a miniscule 1.0 BB/9 in 138.2 IP. The Yankees are almost certainly looking at him in a long relief role. As per the Rule 5 Draft rules, they must carry him on their 25-man active roster all season or put him on waivers and offer him back to the Nationals.

Cabral is in a slightly different situation. He was a Rule 5 Draft selection last year, so if the Yankees don’t keep him on their active roster but he clears waivers, they don’t have to offer him back to Boston. He can elect free agency if that happens though. Cabral was in the Rays organization at this time last year, though he did not crack their top 30 list in the Prospect Handbook. He owns a low-90’s fastball with a changeup that’s better than his breaking ball, so that doesn’t exactly make him a traditional lefty specialist candidate. Sure enough, he had a reverse split this season and has in the past as well. Here’s some video.

The Yankees apparently liked Cabral enough that they tried to trade with Astros, Twins, and Mariners — owners of the top three picks in the Rule 5 Draft — to make sure they got him. The ended up making the deal with the Royals, who picked fifth. Due to waiver claims and such, Cabral has now been part of the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Blue Jays organizations in the last year or so. Both he and Meyers will audition for jobs in Spring Training, but as is always the case with these guys, they’re unlikely to stick.

So long, Greg Golson

Via Joel Sherman and Bryan Hoch, the Yankees have released Greg Golson to make room on the 40-man roster this morning’s two Rule 5 Draft pickups. They had one open 40-man spot, so only one move was needed.

For all his physical ability, Golson has never been able to put it all together. He has eight hits and one walk in 42 career big league plate appearances, and is a career .261/.318/.380 hitter in 1,383 Triple-A plate appearances. Golson can play some serious defense though, and I’m sure Carl Crawford is still having nightmares after this throw. There’s a non-zero chance that he clears waivers and returns to the Yankees.

Angels sign Albert Pujols (UPDATE: And C.J. Wilson too)

It’s not Yankees-related, but it’s huge for baseball. This morning Albert Pujols left the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals to sign a 10-year contract with the Anaheim Angels. Pujols will earn between $250 and $260 million. Just speculating from the rumors this winter, I’d wager it’s above $252 million, giving Pujols the second largest deal in major league history. The Angels will be at Yankee Stadium on the weekend of April 13th for a three-game set, the homer opener.

Update: Joel Sherman says the Angels have agreed to terms with C.J. Wilson as well. It’s a five-year, $75M contract according to Jon Heyman. I can’t believe he got less than A.J. Burnett and John Lackey, though I suppose he could have taken a bit of a discount to go back home to SoCal. Pretty significant day in the NL West, the Halos really closed the gap between them and the Rangers.

Add by Mike: Jayson Stark reported late last night that a mystery team had joined the Pujols bidding, and that it was a club with an established big name first baseman they’d need trade to accommodate Pujols. The Yankees fit that bill, but Buster Olney says that no, they weren’t the mystery team.

2011 Rule 5 Draft Liveblog

The Rule 5 Draft is the unofficial end of the Winter Meetings, a snoozefest of fringe prospects and journeymen joining new teams hoping to find a diamond in the rough. But because we love fringe prospects and journeymen here at RAB, I’ll be liveblogging the whole thing.

Just five of the 19 picks in last year’s Rule 5 Draft managed to stick with their new team, with lefty specialist Joe Paterson of the Diamondbacks likely representing the best of the bunch (3.44 FIP in 34 IP). Joel Sherman says the Yankees were going to take Paterson last year, but Arizona beat them too it. They ended up rolling the dice on righty Danny Turpen and lefty Robert Fish instead, but neither player made it through Spring Training. They lost George Kontos (Padres) and Lance Pendleton (Astros), but both were returned before the season started and eventually made their big league debuts later in the summer. Expect more of the same this year.

The Yankees protected five players — IF Corban Joseph, RHP David Phelps, RHP D.J. Mitchell, OF Zoilo Almonte, and IF David Adams — but did not clear any additional roster space in advance of this year’s draft. They have one open 40-man roster spot, so they can select only one player in the Major League portion of the draft. Joel Sherman says they were planning to make a pick as of last night, and I’m hoping for Ryan Flaherty, a left-handed hitting utility guy in the Cubs’ system, but he’s unlikely to get to them. The Hiroyuki Nakajima stuff could also affect their pursuit of bench help. Pat Venditte is the player they’re most likely to lose, just because someone will want to take a look at the left/right thing in camp. I expect him to be offered back at some point.

I apologize in advance for any misspellings, some of these names will be tough. The draft is scheduled to start at 10am ET, so I’ll open up the chat/liveblog a few minutes before that.

Report: Yu Darvish will be posted tomorrow

Via Don Nomura, the Nippon Ham Fighters will post 25-year-old right-hander Yu Darvish tomorrow. I don’t know if that means today (Thursday) or tomorrow (Friday) given the timing, but that doesn’t really matter. One day isn’t a big deal. Darvish confirmed the news on his blog (translated link).

You folks know all about Darvish by now, but if not, scroll through our archive. We’ve covered him quite a bit here, and the Yankees like him enough to have been scouting him since at least 2008. The blind auction period lasts four days, but it usually takes MLB and NPB a full week to announce the high bid. We should know who won his rights by Monday the 19th at the latest.