Open Thread: February 26th Camp Notes

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Today’s news…

  • The Yankees fell to the Phillies this afternoon by the score of 5-4. Eric Wordekemper allowed the game-tying and go-ahead runs in the the eighth inning on the bloop single that probably should have been caught by Colin Curtis in left. Jorge Vazquez hit a two-run homer over the batter’s eye in dead center, Alex Rodriguez hit two balls right on the screws, and Mark Teixeira tripled. Bartolo Colon was meh at best, hitting 93 a few times and saying afterwards that he wants to work on his two-seamer to lefties. Here’s the box score. (Marc Carig)
  • Tex had a bruise on the big toe of his right foot after Cole Hamels hit him with some kind of offspeed pitch in the first inning. It’s the same toe he broke last year when Vin Mazzaro got him with a pitch. Other than that, no one got hurt. (Carig & Carig)
  • Before the game, the Yankees had their annual meeting with the player’s association. Turns out that former Yanks Tony Clark and Mike Myers work for the union. (Sam Borden)
  • Andrew Brackman said his hip felt just fine, which is weird because yesterday we heard it was the groin that was giving him trouble. Maybe he just felt like giving up update on an irrelevant part of his body. (Carig)
  • None of the regular infielders will play tomorrow, and neither will Andruw Jones, Russell Martin, or Frankie Cervelli. Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Boone Logan, and Dellin Betances are scheduled to pitch. (Ben Shpigel & Bryan Hoch)

Here’s the open thread for the night. The Islanders and Nets are the only local teams in action, plus the Rockies and Diamondbacks will be on MLB Network starting at 11pm ET. Until then, MLBN is showing some college baseball. Talk about whatever, go nuts.

2011 AL East Sleepers

As Spring Training warms up and baseball season approaches, it is easy to find plenty of “busts and sleepers” columns around the baseball community, particularly for fantasy baseball. I’ve done the same thing here for the American League East using Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system. First I used PECOTA and calculated the projected wOBAs for every offensive starter in the American League East. Then I subtracted each player’s 2010 wOBA from the projection. The players with the largest differences are projected to do better than they did in 2010, and the players with negative values are projected to perform worse than they did in 2010. Today we’ll look at the “sleepers”, the players that PECOTA sees doing better this year than last year. I’ve selected one player from each team because Orioles and Blue Jays fans need love too.

Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury

2010 wOBA: .237. 2011 projected wOBA: .333.

Watch out for Adr--Ooh...(Getty Images)

Given how poorly Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2010 campaign went, it’s a bit odd to include him on this list: repeated injuries to his ribs kept him from staying on the field and producing at anything resembling a normal level of production. While it might be more interesting to examine another Red Sox player,  the next highest wOBA-gainer on the list is JD Drew (.346 2010 wOBA; .355 2011 projected wOBA) and, frankly, JD Drew is boring.

As mentioned, Ellsbury had a rough go of it in 2010, injuring his ribs in April, and then reinjuring them when he attempted to return. 2010 was a lost year for those attempting to ascertain what Ellsbury’s true talent level is. In 2009 he had taken a step forward, increasing his on-base and slugging  percentages by about twenty points apiece and bumping his OPS to .770. Ellsbury isn’t the type to hit for power, but his relatively decent ability to get on-base in 2009 and his blindingly fast speed led many to expect him to take another step forward in 2010. Many were the fantasy players who took Ellsbury in the first round of a standard 5×5 league, and great was their disappointment.

All fantasy owners and the Boston Red Sox got from Ellsbury was a measly set of 83 plate appearances, and all Ellsbury got was older and more expensive to the Sox. In 2011 he looks to get back on the horse with fellow speedster Carl Crawford behind him, yet PECOTA isn’t very bullish on Ellsbury’s ability to advance past his 2009 statistical line. The projection of .281/.337/.381 is nearly identical to his relatively inferior 2008 season.

Even with an OPS of barely over .700 Ellsbury has good value to the Red Sox. He’s relatively inexpensive, he plays good defense and he runs the bases well. However, unless he can outperform PECOTA’s meager expectations for his ability to get on base and hit for power he will fall well short of his solid 2009 season. Whether this makes him a true “sleeper”, then, is an open question.

Toronto Blue Jays: JP Arencibia

Indeed. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette)

2010 wOBA: .232; 2011 projected wOBA: .331.

Like Ellsbury, JP Arencibia’s presence in this list is largely the product of an unnaturally low 2009 line in limited playing time: Arencibia hit .143/.189/.343 in a mere 37 plate appearances. Yet Arencibia has an impressive minor league pedigree, and should get a decent shot at holding down the Toronto catching job now that John Buck has departed for greener pastures. Arencibia doesn’t profile to take a lot of walks; his career minor league OBP is .319. However, he has exhibited some serious power potential, albeit in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. Howard Bender of Fangraphs recently wrote up Arencibia as a “catcher on the rise” over at Fangraphs:

If the growth that we’ve seen in the minors is any indication, the power potential here is massive. He progressed nicely from Single-A to Double-A and the little hiccup he experienced his first year in Triple-A (increased K% with a major decrease in BA) was thoroughly wiped away with his follow-up season in 2010. His ISO numbers are fantastic and you can tell that his hitting prowess is more than just luck as evidenced by his relatively normal BABIP numbers. One caveat that I should point out is the .228 average vs lefties with a .284 OBP in his two seasons in Triple-A. Those numbers could translate even worse in the majors. There will also be questions as to whether or not he can handle the rigors of catching full time in the bigs as well as how he can handle the pitching staff, but those will certainly be answered this season as the Jays will afford him every opportunity to succeed this year. Consider him a middle round pick who should, if he keeps his head on straight, put up early round pick numbers.

In a refreshing exhibition of clear expectations, PECOTA is strikingly bearish on Arencibia’s ability to get on base (.290 OBP) and strikingly bullish on his ability to hit for power (.483 SLG). It’s probably not the well-rounded game the Jays are looking for long-term out of the catcher position, but it’s not far off from the level of production they got out of John Buck last year (.281/.314/.489 with a .345 wOBA). If Arencibia can stick behind the plate for the season and hit to his projected .331 wOBA the Jays would be happy campers.

Tampa Bay Rays: Dan Johnson

You know who broke his bat? Cliff Lee. Game 5 ALDS: 9 IP, 6H, 0R, 0BB, 11K. I hate you, Cliff. (Getty Images)

2010 wOBA: .339; 2011 projected wOBA: .367

Dan Johnson is exactly the kind of player that Rays’ management loves to sign, and he’s exactly the kind of player to take AJ Burnett deep at an inopportune time, leaving most Yankees fans saying “wait, who?”. It’s just so typical.

Johnson has bounced around in his career between the Athletics, the Rays, and the Japanese club Yokohoma Bay Stars. He hasn’t exhibited the typical power one would expect from the first baseman, but boy can he take a base on balls: he had the highest walk rate of any 1B with at least 100 plate appearances in 2010.

In 2010 Johnson, the victim of an absurdly low BABIP of .188, hit .198/.343/.414 (.339 wOBA) in 140 plate appearances. PECOTA sees his walk-heavy ways continuing in 2011, but also projects him to add some power, predicting a line of .244/.368/.465. Ultimately this isn’t going to measure up to the standard set by Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira, but Johnson will only cost the Rays $1M in 2011. They would certainly be thrilled (and smug) if they got a 0.367 wOBA from a $1M first baseman.

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters

'09 PECOTA aside, dude has to be thrilled that he never had to catch Daniel Cabrera. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

No one will soon forget the occasion when PECOTA, in a seeming fit of spasmodic optimism, spit out the following line for Matt Wieters, the rookie, prior to the 2009 season: 649 PAs, 31 HR, 102 RBI, .311/.395/.544. Despite a minor league track record befitting the finest thoroughbred in all the land Wieters missed this projection and missed badly, hitting .280/.340/.412. This is an impressive line for a rookie 23 year-old catcher debuting at the major league level, but it certainly fell well short of the incredibly lofty expectations PECOTA had laid out for Wieters. In 2010 expectations were tempered but Wieters still fell short, undergoing the dreaded sophomore slump with a line of .249/.319/.377. The difference can largely be traced to a seventy point drop in Wieters’ BABIP. In his debut he averaged .356; in 2010 the mark was .287.

Aside from the fluctuation in BABIP, there are reasons for optimism for Wieters in 2011. Last year he increased his walk rate from around 7% to 9%, and managed to reduce his strikeout rate by a solid 3%. In other words, despite a worse batting line he actually made some small positive steps forward at the plate. His ISO increased ever so slightly, again indicating that the decrease in his batting line was largely related to a difference in fortune on balls in play. PECOTA sees Wieters’ BABIP normalizing at .311 this year. It’s a safe bet, but it’s hard to know whether he’ll settle in 20 points lower or higher than that on his career. As a result, the system projects a line of .268/.341/.419, very similar to what he produced in his rookie debut.

When PECOTA made the Wieters projection, there was a lot of confusion. Sure, there were the typical troglodytes who take every opportunity possible to mock the concept of a “computer” predicting baseball, but it’s always easy to ignore them. The more serious questions came from people who didn’t understand how in the world PECOTA came up with that: if PECOTA is in essence conservative, how could it produce a statistical line that looks like it was ripped straight off a fanboy’s message board posting? At the time Baseball Prospectus’ Steven Goldman sought to answer this question, contextualizing it within a discussion of the structural design of PECOTA and what it seeks to accomplish. His words are just as relevant now as they were then:

PECOTA is an essentially conservative program. Its player-performance projections are neither wildly optimistic nor pessimistic, but built purely from the data, and from its own understanding of the way that player careers progress based on literally thousands of antecedents. Thus, when it proposes that Orioles catching prospect Matt Wieters, a rookie-to-be who has never played above Double-A, could hit .311/.395/.544 in the majors this year, we took notice: this was the first time that PECOTA had looked at a prospect and predicted an MVP-caliber, Hall of Fame-level season right off the bat…

Of course, as we’ve often said in our annual book, PECOTA is not destiny. Much stands between a young player and the achievement of his projection, whether that projection is as boldly put as Wieters’ is, or merely average. Injury is a particular risk for a young catcher, as an errant foul tip can mangle a finger, or a contact play at the plate can mangle an entire body. What makes Wieters’ projection all the more impressive is that PECOTA is aware of the toll that catching can take on a backstop’s offensive skills, and yet it still sees such impressive short-term results for the Orioles tyro

Perhaps, then, it is wrong to say that PECOTA lacks optimism, that it doesn’t rave. In its own way, Wieters’ projection is its way of saying, “Hey, I think I spot a very rare talent here; you might want to pay attention.”

Given his words, and Wieters’ super minor league track record, and the fact that he’s settling into his third season in the American League East, many would be forgiven for taking the “over” on Wieters’ modest batting line this season. Yet this serves as a reminder, both for Wieters and for the Yankee sleeper who follows Wieters below, that no matter how much evidence, statistical research and historical comparisons you have you simply never know what’s going to happen next.

Yankees:  Jesus Montero

He dropped the ball, and then his glove fell off. Then he picked the ball up and threw it into CF. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

2010 wOBA: N/A; 2011 projected wOBA: 0.346.

Everyone’s favorite prospect has been every projection system’s favorite golden boy this February, and PECOTA is no exception. PECOTA sees a line of .285/.331/.471 in 2011 for Montero with 18 HRs in 480 PAs. This would quite obviously be a tremendous level of performance for a 21 year-old in his first season in the bigs.

Jesus Montero has been the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for so long now that it’s hard to imagine him actually putting up an OPS of over .800 in Yankee pinstripes. It doesn’t seem right. Shouldn’t something go wrong? Shouldn’t he have been traded by now?  Despite lingering questions about his defensive ability, and despite multiple near-misses in trade talks, Jesus Montero is on the precipice. The greatest Yankee hitting prospect since Derek Jeter is ready for the bright lights of New York.

The last few years have been exciting times for prospect watchers. We’ve seen players like Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Colby Rasmus, David Price, Tommy Hanson, Matt Wieters, Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey and Carlos Santana get hyped and then promoted to the bigs. Some like Wieters and Bruce struggled at first; others like Posey and Heyward became immediate game-changers for their club. The Yankees have the luxury of patience with Montero this spring, but they certainly will hope that he falls into the latter category of game-changer. For its part, PECOTA is expecting great things. We all are.

Where there’s smoke: Yanks keeping an eye on Liriano

Via Bob Nightengale, the Yankees are keeping a close eye on Twins’ lefty Francisco Liriano, and the Twinkies are keeping tabs on some Yankees’ prospects. We first heard about Liriano potentially being available earlier this month, so this isn’t terribly surprising. The 27-year-old showed up to camp with a sore shoulder and had an MRI, but it came back clean and he threw a bullpen this week with no problems. There are concerns about Liriano’s durability but basically none with his performance: he’s a strikeout (career 9.30 K/9) and ground ball (48.2%) machine, exactly what you want. There’s no harm keeping an eye on the guy.

Spring Training Game Thread: The First of Many

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

The grass was a little greener (or less dead, anyway), the sun was a little brighter, and the New York air a little less nauseating when I woke up this morning. Why? Because baseball will be played today. I don’t care that it’s just a Spring Training game, it’s baseball, and we’ve been without it for far too long. I enjoy these games because of the prospects and stuff, but mostly because there’s no stress. Who cares who wins and who loses? There’s plenty of time to worry about that later. This brand of baseball is for pure entertainment in my book.

Bartolo Colon gets his first crack at winning a rotation spot this afternoon, though we really shouldn’t put too much stock in his performance since it’s just his first outing. That works both ways, regardless if he pitches well or poorly. It is worth noting that Colon did pitch in winter ball, so he’s theoretically ahead of the hitters as far as readiness, if you get my drift. He’ll throw two innings or 35 pitches, whichever comes first. I’m guessing the latter.

Brian Schlitter, who the Yankees lost on waivers to the Phillies after claiming him off waivers from the Cubs, is scheduled to pitch today for Philadelphia. Here’s the lineup, or at least the one that will start the game. Joe Girardi said yesterday that the regulars will get two at-bats then hit the showers…

Derek Jeter, SS
Nick Swisher, RF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robbie Cano, 2B
Jorge Posada, DH
Curtis Granderson, CF
Frankie Cervelli, C
Brett Gardner, LF

Scheduled to Pitch: Bartolo Colon, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, David Phelps, Hector Noesi, and Eric Wordekemper.

Also Scheduled to Play: Austin Romine (C), Jorge Vazquez (1B), Kevin Russo (2B), Eduardo Nunez (SS), Brandon Laird (3B), Colin Curtis (LF), Greg Golson (CF), Justin Maxwell (RF), and Andruw Jones (DH).

The game can be seen on either YES or the MLB Network, and begins at 1:05pm ET. George Steinbrenner will be honored during a pregame ceremony; here’s that press release. Enjoy the game.

Calm Down, It’s Only Spring Training

Prior, you stay safe inside that go-cart and don't hurt yourself, so you can pitch during the season, all right? (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

In a few hours, we will be all be watching real, live baseball. We will be watching New York Yankees (some more questionable than others) play major league baseball. Some of them – 24, 42, 30, 2, 13 – will be wearing numbers that we recognize. Most of them will be wearing weird numbers we don’t know. We will judge them by a tiny selection of at-bats off pitchers, many of which are struggling for major league jobs. We will wonder what this means for the rest of the season.

Now, I’m as guilty as anyone at this. I’m going to try my Mo-damned best not to yell at my computer during Spring Training. I will try my best not to moan in anguish when Gardner lays down a sacrifice bunt or get too excited watching Austin Romine hit home runs. Because, let’s be honest, it’s Spring Training. The stats don’t matter. Okay, maybe they matter a little. No, wait, they really, really don’t. Try your absolute hardest to pay no attention to anything that happens. Just soak it in. It’s been a long offseason.

The 2009 season was a particularly good example of how Spring Training stats mean absolutely nothing. Angel Berroa hit .377 with seven doubles and two home runs in 61 plate appearances, but couldn’t even manage to stay on the team the whole season and the Yankees released him in July to have the Mets sign him. Through the entire regular season, he only managed to hit .143/.208/.184 in six less PA. Another stunning example of this is the notorious Kei Igawa, who posted an impressive 0.73 ERA in 12.1 IP. Luckily, he had absolutely no major league innings that year. Chien-Ming Wang (4.15 ERA in  21 IP) had a better ERA than CC Sabathia (4.26). Brett Gardner hit three home runs in 64 PA in Spring Training and 3 home runs in 248 PA during the regular season.

Things didn’t change in 2010, as far as random statistics went. Colin Curtis, who hit that hit that memorable pinch-hit home run, had two home runs in ’10 Spring Training and went 6-for-12. Mark Teixeira, king of glacial Aprils, went .362 in 47 PAs with three home runs. Francisco Cervelli hit .344 with two doubles. Sabathia, again, didn’t do so hot: he picked up an impressive 7.23 ERA with 15 ER. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want that guy pitching on my Opening Day.

The Yankees as a team went 9-20 in Spring Training 2001 and, if my memory serves, they did pretty decent when it mattered.

So, here’s the end to a short post: don’t worry about Spring Training. Stay away from the bridges. Try not to accuse Cano (who, by the way, posted a .377 with two home runs and four doubles in Spring Training ’10) of being lazy, and don’t get on Sabathia for his bad Marches. Try to enjoy watching Bartolo Colon either a) pitch decently or b) make a fool out of himself. Either way, it’ll be entertaining. The games don’t count. Baseball’s been gone for a really, really long time. Let’s try to enjoy at least one game before we start filling up the game threads with doom proclamations and death threats. Just one. That’s not too much to ask, right?

(Just a warning: if you do start with the doom proclamations, I (and many other people) am going to make fun of you.)

Open Thread: February 25th Camp Notes

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

The latest on the last day without Yankees baseball until (hopefully) November…

  • Mariano Rivera threw his second bullpen of the spring, simply saying that things went “bueno.” Mark Prior threw live batting practice [insert recycled injury joke here], as did Manny Banuelos. Joe Girardi, Larry Rothschild, and Billy Eppler were in attendance. (Erik Boland, Bryan Hoch & Chad Jennings)
  • If the season started today, apparently the coaching staff would want Andrew Brackman on the club. Wouldn’t that be something? Wanting him on the club and having him on the club are two different things, though. Of course, the Brackmonster will miss a few days with a groin injury. (Peter Gammons)
  • Frankie Cervelli was getting catching tips from 85-year-old Yogi Berra. Yogi even tried to get into a crouch. Good for him. (Sam Borden)
  • Jordan Parraz managed to clear the scoreboard in left-center with a homer during batting practice. That’s no cheapie at GMS Field. (Ben Shpigel)
  • Bartolo Colon, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, David Phelps, Hector Noesi, and Eric Wordekemper are scheduled to pitch in tomorrow’s Grapefruit League opener. Joe Girardi said all the regulars will play and get two at-bats, though Cervelli is starting behind the plate. Jesus Montero will catch on Sunday, and Russell Martin will DH early next week before catching on Thursday or Friday. (Shpigel, Jack Curry & Jennings)
  • The opposing starters this weekend: Cole Hamels (Saturday), Joe Blanton (Sunday), and Rick Porcello (Monday). Colon, Ivan Nova, and CC Sabathia are starting those games for the Yanks. (Pete Caldera)
  • Turns out there’s no team-building exercise planned for this spring. Alas. (Jennings)

I’m not sure if you’ve seen it already, but MLB.com is having this Dream Job contest where all the winner does for a year is watch baseball and blog about it, basically. I applied, and I don’t think you should. My odds will be better that way. Anywho, here’s the open thread. The Rangers, Devils, Knicks, and Nets are all playing, so there’s enough going on to keep you entertained through this yucky weather. Smile, there’s a baseball game on tomorrow.

The Banuelos Watch

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

If you’re a new reader, let me explain what all this about. Every season we select one prospect to follow as the season progresses, tracking their stats in the sidebar for all to see and celebrate. Last year we watched Jesus Montero, but it’s time to get back to our starting pitcher roots.

Pint-sized (5-foot-10) lefty Manny Banuelos is the best pitching prospect in the Yankees system, owner of a 2.59 ERA in 215.2 career innings. He’s struck out 228 (9.5 K/9) in that time and walked just 66 (2.8 BB/9), surrendering just ten homers (0.4 HR/9). Banuelos reached Double-A at age 19 last season, just months after having an emergency appendectomy. He’ll return there this year, but there’s a good chance he won’t stay there for long.

Past watches have highlighted guys like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, so Banuelos has a tough act to follow. Once the actual watch goes up on the sidebar (later tonight or tomorrow, it’ll be below the Opening Day Countdown), you’ll see two rows of stats. The top one will be Banuelos’ most recent start, and the bottom will be his season performance. It’s pretty simple, but it’s always worth explaining.

The minor league season doesn’t begin until the first full week of April, but I plan on keeping track of everything this year, including the appearances Banuelos makes in the Grapefruit League. Anyway, I hope you all enjoy following along this year.