John Sickels of Minor League Ball published his list of the top 20 Yankees prospects over the weekend, a list that is unsurprisingly topped by Jesus Montero. Montero, a Grade A prospect, is followed by Gary Sanchez (B+) and four B-prospects: Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Mason Williams, and Dante Bichette Jr. Click through for his brief individual write-ups and grade explanations. I’ve found myself disagreeing with Sickels more than any other publication because I think he relies on stats a little too much, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s important to see different opinions of players.
Via Buster Olney, the Yankees like free agent starter Edwin Jackson, but they don’t have the room to add him because Rafael Soriano is taking up a big part of their budget ($11M in 2012, $14M in 2013). Joe wrote about Soriano and how his contract may be preventing moves last week, in case you missed it.
Would Jackson help the Yankees next year? Of course. Is he the one missing piece that would put them over the top? I doubt it, but stranger things have happened. I know he’s young and all that, but he is a classic “should be better than he is” type and I think the Yankees have about three of those guys in the rotation already. Being the best available anything has a way of distorting reality and making players seem better than they really are, which is what happened with Gio Gonzalez and is probably happening with Jackson. I’m terrified of ownership stepping in an ordering a signing here, frankly.
Back in November I took a deep dive into the numbers to see whether there were any positives to be gleaned from A.J. Burnett‘s lousy 2011 season and whether we could expect at least a slightly better performance from the enigmatic righty in 2012 (assuming the Yankees don’t eat his deal and decide to make him someone else’s problem). What I found was that Burnett’s season was utterly compromised by a brutal nine-start stretch he put together during July and August — which was in large part due to the fact that he lost nearly two inches of vertical break on his curveball — and that if you removed those performances from his ledger he actually threw to a 4.11 ERA over 135.2 innings. We all know baseball doesn’t work that way, but that would seem to indicate that there’s still a somewhat useful pitcher in there somewhere.
Today I wanted to examine a few key splits, in the hopes that there are some underlying trends that could bode well for A.J. going forward. For the masochists in the audience, feel free to download the spreadsheet I created which has the tOPS+ and sOPS+ data on pretty much every split you could want during the course of A.J.’s Yankee career. For the purposes of this post, we’ll focus on sOPS+, as in the case of a pitcher like Burnett I think we’ll get a better sense of just how effective/ineffective he’s been comparing his performances in various splits against the league instead of compared to himself.
Over the last two years, leadoff hitters, cleanup hitters and 5th-slot hitters have really given it to A.J. but good. For some reason, A.J. fared best against #2 hitters last season, and also handled them relatively well last year. While his performance against 1-2 hitters slightly worsened in 2011, his sOPS+ against 3-6 hitters was flat year-over-year and his numbers against 7-9 hitters actually improved over 2010 (although in the case of the latter, he was still only 3% better than league average). Still, none of this data is terribly optimistic.
Last year, Burnett was curiously effective with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs (53 sOPS+). He also fared well with runners on first and third (72 sOPS+). Though one would think that Burnett’s propensity for wild pitches — something that wouldn’t show up in the opposition’s cumulative OPS — likely aided the opposing team’s opportunities with runners on third. Burnett has been atrocious with a runner on 2nd these last two seasons, posting a 143 sOPS+ last year and 152 this past season. Nothing to see here.
This past season A.J. appeared to save his best pitching for when the team was trailing, with an 80 sOPS+. However, as driven painfully home by the August 3 game against the White Sox, he was inexplicably terrible when pitching with a big lead, posting an sOPS+ of 195(!) when ahead by four-plus runs.
In 2011, A.J. saved his worst pitching for the middle innings collectively, although his worst performances came in the 2nd inning of games (154 sOPS+). Burnett was great in the 3rd inning (43 sOPS+), but that was one only three innings he was better than league average in, and one of those innings — the eighth — was one he rarely even saw.
Unfortunately there doesn’t appear to be anything in the underlying data that might portend a brighter future for Allan James Burnett in 2012. I’ve been hoping against hope that A.J. can return to a level of effectiveness that he last evinced in 2009, and while I’ll continue to perhaps foolishly expect better from A.J., no matter which way you slice ’em the numbers tell a very different story.
2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS
Top stories from last week:
- Andruw Jones will be back in 2012, agreeing to a one-year contract worth $2M with another $1.4M available in incentives. The Yankees also signed Hideki Okajima to a minor league deal, but they’re still far apart in contract talks with Hiroyuki Nakajima.
- Alex Rodriguez underwent an experimental procedure on his right knee and left shoulder in Germany with blessings from the team and the commissioner’s office. Brian Cashman said it was more about “maintaining health going forward” than rehabbing past injuries.
- Carlos Beltran came to the Yankees and was willing to sign for two years and $26M at the last minute, but they declined and he took the same contract from the Cardinals. The Cubs are prioritizing young pitching in a Matt Garza trade. Despite reports to the contrary, the Yankees do have money to make moves according to Randy Levine.
- The Yankees will apparently wear 1912 throwback jerseys on April 20th to help celebrate the 100th anniversary of Fenway Park’s opening.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
The page hass officially turned on 2011, which begs the question: where the hell did all the time go? Hard to believe it’s 2012 already, no? I know it’s cliche to say that, but it’s definitely true. Like everyone else, I have a bunch of resolutions I plan on not keeping, but at least I’ll have a little extra motivation to prove myself wrong over the next few days before settling back into the routine.
Anyway, here is your open thread for the day. There are football games all over the place, plus the
Knicks and Nets are playing. Of course if you’re a Time Warner customer, you won’t be able to watch the Knicks [if they were playing] because the Dolans pulled MSG over a contract dispute. That means the first place and fun to watch Rangers won’t be on anytime soon either, so thanks for that assholes. Talk about whatever you want here, anything goes.
I have to say, 2011 was a pretty good year. The Yankees won the AL East again, Derek Jeter picked up his 3,000th career hit, Mariano Rivera became baseball’s all-time saves king, Curtis Granderson and Robbie Cano had MVP caliber seasons, CC Sabathia made another run at the Cy Young, Jesus Montero did his thing in September … not a whole lot to complain about. Plus baseball around the league was incredible, mid-September through the end of the World Series was basically the best six-week stretch of baseball I’ve ever seen.
In terms of traffic, 2011 was also RAB’s best year ever. We had more visitors than ever before this year, by a not small margin either, and we set a new record high for page views in a month in three consecutive months (June, July, and August). We didn’t break our all-time single day record though, that’s still July 9th, 2010, when all the Cliff Lee madness went down. Thank you folks for reading and another great year at RAB. We couldn’t do it without you.
We’re going to leave you with this open thread for the day. Have a happy and safe New Years. We’ll see you in 2012.
Nothing will start a debate quite like a national baseball writer ranking the best anything, and Buster Olney went nuclear on the baseball faniverse by publishing a series of top ten lists this week. The Yankees didn’t place among the ten best rotations, which shouldn’t be all that surprising, but they ranked second in bullpen (behind the Braves), third in infield (Rangers, Reds), second in outfield (D’Backs), and third in lineup (Red Sox, Rangers).
All the links are Insider-only unfortunately, but the Yankees relevant stuff is here. I generally agree with Buster’s rankings, though I’d have the Yanks ahead of the Reds on the infield (who’s their shortstop? what was Scott Rolen’s OBP last year?). That’s just a minor quibble though, I don’t think there are any egregious mistakes where the Yankees were multiple spots off the mark. The Rays didn’t appear in the outfield list though, not sure how that happened.