Joe couldn’t make it, but Ben and I will be in attendance for Carl Pavano’s return to the Bronx this afternoon. We’re sitting in Section 412, Row 4, Seats 5-6, so stop by and say hi if you have some time. I’ll be in my seat around 12:30 or so, Ben a little later than that. We can spend some quality time booing Carl Pavano, should be a blast.
A-Rod’s workouts intensify
Via PeteAbe, Alex Rodriguez took a long batting practice session in Tampa and fielded grounders on the infield dirt for the first time since having surgery on his hip. A-Rod took 75 swings, hitting a bunch of homers as you’d expect, and he also increased the intensity of his running program. It looks like he might be able to play in a rehab game within seven to ten days, and hopefully be back with the big league club a week after that. That’s just pure speculation on my part though. I hear they force prisoners in Guantanamo Bay to watch a continuous loop of Cody Ransom at-bats when they don’t cooperate during an interrogation.
Anticipating a homecoming of sorts
Later this afternoon, the Yankees and their fans will welcome back a former member of the Yankee Brotherhood. This player, a Yankee for four years, had many memorable moments on the team. First, there was the time he hurt his buttocks; then, he crashed his car and never told the team; then, he somehow wrangled an Opening Day start out of the team only to go down with a season-ending arm injury two starts later.
That’s right; Carl Pavano is making his return to Yankee Stadium. It is a glorious day in Yankeeland and just what the team and its fans need after yesterday’s 22-4 loss.
Anyway, as the Bronx gears up to welcome Carl Pavano back to the stadium as only the Bronx can, Pavano’s former squeeze Alyssa Milano had some choice words for the Indians’ right-hander. Millano, a noted baseball fan, was at CitiField on Saturday for the Mets’ victory over the Brewers and chatted with Brendan Prunty of The Star-Ledger.
But later on she was asked about a former flame (or it is flame-thrower?), Cleveland Indians pitcher Carl Pavano. The two dated briefly around 2004, and when told that he was going to be pitching Saturday afternoon against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, she said: “That’s not going to be pretty.”
While she spoke highly of Pavano’s work ethic and dedication to baseball, she did make some rather candid statements about the former Yankees pitcher.
“He’s got a lot of talent,” Milano said. “But I think it’s become a head game for him. If I were him, I would’ve stayed out of the American League.”
So there you have it. Even Alyssa Milano thinks that Carl Pavano is a headcase who shouldn’t be pitching in the AL. Hopefully, as she said, this won’t be pretty.
Another day, another win for Scranton
Triple-A Scranton (6-2 win over Rochester) the only undefeated teams remaining in professional baseball are the High-A Visalia Rawhide (D-Backs), the Low-A Fort Wayne Tin Caps (Padres), and these guys
Doug Bernier: 0 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB
John Rodriguez: 0 for 0, 1 R, 1 HBP – lifted after being hit by a pitch on the wrist
Todd Linden: 3 for 4, 2 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI – 7 for his last 13 with a double, a triple & a pair of homers
Shelley Duncan: 2 for 4, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 RBI – 6 for his last 10 with two homers
Angel Berroa: 2 for 2, 2 BB, 1 E (fielding)
Justin Leone & Chris Stewart: both 0 for 4 – Leone committed a fielding error
Eric Duncan & PJ Pilittere: both 1 for 3 – E-Dunc drove in a run & K’ed … PJ doubled
The Ghost of Kei Igawa: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 6-11 GB/FB – 56 of 83 pitches were strikes (67.5%)
JB Cox: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 WP – 17 of 27 pitches were strikes (63.0%)
David Robertson: 1.1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 2-1 GB/FB – 9 of 11 pitches were strikes
The Wang Elevation
(click graph for a larger view)
We’ve already taken in-depth looks at how much different Chien-Ming Wang’s stuff and release points are this year compared to last year, but I wanted to take a look something Wang usually excels at: keeping the ball down. The above graph shows what percentage of Wang’s sinkers (sinkers only since that’s his break and butter) ended up in five different sections of the strike zone (data from Pitch f/x). Pitches marked “High” and “Low” are out of the zone, while the actual strike zone is cut up into equal thirds dubbed “Up,” “Middle,” and “Down.” The thick black lines denote the top and bottom of the strike zone, if it wasn’t obvious enough.
It’s easy to see what made Wang so effective last year; 41.4% of his pitches were in the bottom third of the strike zone or lower, and 68.9% of his pitches were in the middle third or lower. This year though, it’s a much different story. Just 32.3% of his pitches are in the bottom third or lower, and only 57.5% were at or below the middle third of the strike zone. Even more troubling is that 28.4% of Wang’s pitches this year are in the upper third of the zone, and that means that those pitches are belt high based on how umpires call the game these days.
When you’ve lost movement and velocity from your sinker over the winter and groove more than a quarter of your pitchers into the hitter’s happy zone, you’re going to get pounded like Wang has. He’s allowed 29 base runners and 23 earned runs in just six (!!!) innings pitched this season. The dude’s rocking a 34.50 ERA and a 4.83 WHIP for chrissakes. It would take five consecutive complete game shutouts for the Wanger to lower his ERA to a respectable 4.06, and two consecutive perfect games to get his WHIP back around to his career average.
As Ben mentioned earlier, the Yanks have the option of skipping Wang’s next start on Thursday thanks to the off day, and letting him work on whatever he needs to during the ten day break. In fact, I’ll say that it’s more than likely that the Yanks will go that route. If Wang doesn’t get himself sorted out in that time, then they need to start looking for other solutions, especially since everyone claims he’s not hurt. It won’t stay April forever.
Instant Analysis: No release for Wang
Chien-Ming Wang just wrapped up his third start of the year, and for the second time this season, the Yanks’ erstwhile ace failed to make it to the third inning. Joe Girardi yanked him with one out in the second inning, and I would be surprised to see Wang make his next start.
On the season, Wang has now gone six innings and has allowed 23 earned runs. He has given up 23 hits and has just two strike outs on the season. His sinker is flat; his slider isn’t doing much; and his velocity is down to the low 90s.
For the Yankees, this turn of events is fairly shocking. Wang won 19 games in both 2006 and 2007 and had eight victories in 2008 before going down with a foot injury. The Yankees now look prescient in not locking Wang up to the a long-deal, but the fact remains that the team needs Wang to right his sinking ship this year.
We ask again then what is wrong with Chien-Ming Wang? We again turn to Wang’s release point.
This table highlights two of Wang’s better games and two of his worst games. The July 30, 2007 appearance was a one-hitter in Boston; the June 10, 2008 series was a ground ball fiesta in Oakland shortly before Wang went down last year; the two April starts are the two most recent debacles.
Basically, Wang’s arm slot is all over the place this year. In 2007, Wang was throwing from a lower slot, and he had far more sink and velocity on his pitches. Last year, something of a down year for Wang prior to the injury, he was throwing from a consistently higher slot than in 2007. This year, he’s throwing over his body. He’s coming up and out when he shouldn’t be.
The bigger question though — and the one I can’t really answer — is the why of it. Is his arm hurt? Is he putting pressure on his shoulder to compensate for another aching body part? Is he just struggling mightily to find his release point? Those are questions that Dave Eiland and the Yanks’ pitching staff have to answer.
For now, I’m not quite sure what to make of this. The Yankees cannot really in good conscience send Wang out there to face the Red Sox in Fenway next Friday, but can they risk tossing Phil Hughes into the fire for his first start of 2009? With an off-day on Thursday, the team could also just skip Wang’s start, keep Hughes at AAA and hope that a few weeks of work can solve the sinker-ball specialist’s problems. We’ll find out soon how the Yankees are going to proceed, but right now, things are not looking up for Chien-Ming Wang.
Game 12 Thread II: Wang is wrong
Anyone want to be that Phil Hughes takes Wang’s place next week? The Yankees have to figure out what’s wrong with Wang, and right now, everything — from release point to velocity — is off for the Wanger. An ace he is no longer.