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6/2 One Game Preview: Detroit Tigers

June 2, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

An underrated ballpark for sure. (Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

Today was originally scheduled to be an off-day for the Yankees and Tigers. Instead, the two teams will meet at Comerica Park to play the makeup game of their April 10th rainout. This is the tenth game of what has become another 20 games in 20 days stretch for the Yankees. These two teams split the first two games of what is technically this series last month.

What Have They Done Lately?

Last night the Tigers snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-0 win over the Angels. Right-hander Michael Fulmer, who went to Detroit with Luis Cessa in last year’s Yoenis Cespedes trade, took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Overall the Tigers are 25-27 with a -16 run differential on the season. Like the Yankees, they are suddenly staring at an unwanted rebuilding phase after years of contention.

Offense & Defense

Scoring runs hasn’t been much of a problem. The Tigers are averaging 4.48 runs per game with a team 103 wRC+, which is the kind of offense the Yankees could only dream about these days. (The Yankees average 3.71 runs per game with a team 82 wRC+. Yuck.) Detroit is completely healthy on the position player side. No one is even day-to-day.

Manager Brad Ausmus has a set lineup and he sticks to it no matter how the team is playing. Bet on the Yankees seeing a starting lineup that looks almost exactly like this tonight:

2B Ian Kinsler (144 wRC+)
RF J.D. Martinez (115 wRC+)
1B Miguel Cabrera (147 wRC+)
DH Victor Martinez (151 wRC+)
3B Nick Castellanos (148 wRC+)
LF Justin Upton (53 wRC+)
CF Cameron Maybin (169 wRC+ in only 59 plate appearances)
C James McCann (2 wRC+ in 85 plate appearances)
SS Jose Iglesias (47 wRC+)

Ausmus may decide to rest one or two players following the West Coast night game last night, but otherwise that’s his set lineup. The Tigers are carrying only three bench players these days: C Jarrod Saltamacchia (105 wRC+), IF Andrew Romine (24 wRC+), and UTIL Mike Aviles (3 wRC+). The Romine brothers will be reunited again today.

Defensively, the Tigers are excellent up the middle with Kinsler, Iglesias, and Maybin. The corners though? Yeesh. Martinez and Upton are liabilities in the outfield corners and Castellanos is a butcher at third. Miggy is not an awful defender, he can scoop throws with the best of ’em, but he doesn’t have a ton of range. McCann is an outstanding thrower. Salty? Not so much. Polar opposites, really.

Pitching Matchup

Thursday (7:40pm ET): RHP Michael Pineda (vs. DET) vs. LHP Matt Boyd (vs. NYY)
The Yankees are catching a break today. This is supposed to be Jordan Zimmermann’s rotation spot, but he’s nursing a groin injury, so Boyd is getting the ball instead. The Tigers picked up the 25-year-old southpaw in the David Price trade last summer. He’s made one relief appearance (4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K) and one spot start (5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K) for Detroit so far this year. Last season he had a 7.53 ERA (6.59 FIP) in 57.1 big league innings, and this year he has a 2.06 ERA (3.15 FIP) in 48 Triple-A innings. Boyd’s strikeout (20.9%), walk (6.6%), and homer (056 HR/9) rates in the minors this season are all solid-ish. PitchFX indicates Boyd has added a little velocity this season; his four-seamer and sinker are averaging 92.7 mph and 91.6 mph this year, up from 91.9 mph and 89.5 mph last year. Low-80s changeups and mid-80s sliders are his go-to secondary pitches. The Yankees did not see Boyd during the two games earlier this season. In fact, the only player on the roster who has faced him in Aaron Hicks thanks to his time with the Twins last year.

Bullpen Status

The Tigers temporarily have an eight-man bullpen because Zimmermann isn’t actually on the DL. It’s a day-to-day thing, but they still needed to add Boyd to the roster to make the spot start. Here is Detroit’s bullpen:

Closer: RHP Francisco Rodriguez (3.60/3.57)
Setup: LHP Justin Wilson (3.92/1.52) and RHP Alex Wilson (5.49/3.68)
Middle: RHP Mark Lowe (7.79/6.75), LHP Kyle Ryan (3.20/3.48), RHP Bobby Parnell
Long: RHP Buck Farmer (2.61/4.18) and Anibal Sanchez (6.67/6.28)

Ausmus announced yesterday that Sanchez is moving to the bullpen now that Zimmermann is due back this weekend. Anibal just started Tuesday, so he won’t be available tonight. Also, Parnell was called up just yesterday and has yet to get into a game. He had a 3.98 ERA (3.80 FIP) in 20.2 innings at Triple-A.

As for the late innings, the Wilsons handle setup work and Justin is the primary high-leverage guy. Ausmus turns to him in the toughest situations. He knows Wilson can get both lefties and righties out. Justin threw 14 pitches Tuesday and Alex threw 22, so they’ll be good to go tonight. In fact, K-Rod was their only reliever to pitch yesterday. He threw 33 pitches in 1.1 innings. That could affect his availability tonight.

Overall, the Tigers never seem to have a good bullpen, and that is generally the case again this year. K-Rod is good enough in the ninth inning and the Wilsons are a strong setup tandem. The middle innings are sketchy. Getting Boyd’s pitch count up and going to town on the middle relievers is a viable strategy, assuming the offense is up to it. Head on over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi’s relievers.

Guest Post: The Future of the Big Three Relievers

June 2, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

The following is a guest post from longtime reader Don Sullivan, who is smart enough to avoid the comments. Don wrote about the future of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman.

It wasn’t too long that the Yankees were playing pretty well, was it? A big part of their success has been their bullpen. Chapman, Miller, and Betances form a historic trio. There is no denying that a phenomenal bullpen can turn a good team into a great team. The question that Brian Cashman and company have to be honest with themselves in asking is, “are we a good team?” If the answer is yes, then you keep the bullpen status quo; if the answer is no, it is time to shop. In my opinion, the magic number is somewhere between 8-12 games under .500 now that we are nearly 1/3 of the way through the year in which the answer is shop.

This post will explore the future of each of the big three and ramifications/expected returns of unloading each one.

(*Disclaimer: I am more of a fan of trades that bring in talent compared to unloading contracts. However, the Yankees do have some albatross contracts to unload.)

Move #1 – Dellin Leaves Home

Out of the three relievers, I would be most inclined to trade Betances (gasp!). In my opinion, not only is Betances the most valuable (youngest/cheapest/most years of team control) but he is also the most enigmatic. He is also the only reliever in which I think the Yankees can trade and include a bad contract with. Relievers are fickle, history tells us there are very few of them who enjoy consistently great careers.

Can Betances be one of the few? Absolutely, but I would rather cash in on his value now, which probably cannot be any higher. Is Betances enough of a sweetener to make a team like the Rangers (5.20+ bullpen ERA) bite and take on Jacoby Ellsbury’s contract (also note their current CF is Ian Desmond)? Possibly. Maybe throw in a tertiary bullpen piece like Chasen Shreve or some cash to get it done. Rangers ownership has shown the propensity to spend and after last year’s debacle, they may be the perfect partner to unload Ells. The only way I am trading Betances is if the other team will take on a Ellsbury or a Chase Headley type contract. I am not personally trading Betances for controllable talent (unless I am blown away).

Move #2 – Cashman cashes in on Chapman

Aroldis is the most accomplished of the three and also has the most explosive stuff (which is really saying something). Odds are the Yankees will not dole out the big bucks to keep Chapman after 2016. Trading Chapman comes with one huge caveat, if you keep him you are guaranteed a first round draft pick when he bolts in free agency.(Recent first round picks have been Aaron Judge, James Kaprielian, Ian Clarkin, etc.)

Also of note, Chapman has been the definition of a work horse throughout his career and Joe Girardi would not have to worry about burning him out. Chapman has pitched five times in six days (2013) and six times in eight days (2012) during his career. Additionally, Chapman probably has the lowest trade value because of his limited amount of team control (half a season).

Given the Yankees farm system and current needs, I would definitely deal Chapman for either a young, controllable starter or a third baseman. The Pirates would seem to be the perfect trade partner as they know Chapman from the division and need to dramatically improve their bullpen (3.93 bullpen ERA). For me either Jameson Taillon or Ke’Bryan Hayes get it done.

Move #3 – Move on from Miller

Andrew Miller has been all the Yankees could hope for and more. His performance has been gaudy and he has proven to be the consummate teammate. He is also signed until 2018 at $9M per year, which is extremely reasonable. I don’t know if his trade value is as high as Betances, but it is certainly higher than Chapman’s.

I do think that Miller can get a similar package to that of Ken Giles, though probably slightly less. Miller is the superior player but Giles is controlled for a longer period of time/cheaper. However, I do think a Vincent Velasquez type talent in return for Miller is not at all unreasonable. The Dodgers would seemingly salivate if Miller were available. They backed out of the Chapman deal based on off the field concerns that Miller does not carry. I would ask the Dodgers for Julio Urias (unlikely), but settle for Jose De Leon, who is much more likely.

All in all, if the Yankees choose to deal, I believe the smartest action is to move two of the three. If the team manages to improve and play well, it still may be worth trading one of the three, however the deal better bowl you over. Of course, my trade proposals suck.

Yankeemetrics: D’Oh, Canada [May 30-June 1]

June 2, 2016 by Katie Sharp Leave a Comment

Lost in translation
The Yankees crossed the border for another series in Toronto, but the script for Monday’s game was a familiar one: the starting pitching was mediocre while the offense continued to flounder and reach historic lows, producing a 4-2 loss to the Blue Jays.

Through 50 games, the Yankees are putting up offensive numbers that resemble some of the weakest squads in franchise history. Their batting average (.233) and on-base percentage (.302) are both their worst at this point in the season since 1969, while they’ve scored their fewest runs (192) at the 50-game marker since 1990.

One glimmer of hope is that twice before in the Wild Card Era they’ve been under .500 through their first 50 games – 1995 and 2007 – and both times they rebounded to make the playoffs that season.

Ivan Nova entered the game with a terrible track record against the Blue Jays and did little to improve it. He now has a 5.66 ERA in 17 games (15 starts) vs. Toronto, the second-worst among active pitchers with more than 10 starts against them.

Nova was pounded by the Blue Jays’ lineup, giving up four extra-base hits and a bunch of loud outs in six innings pitched. The results were hardly surprising, though, despite Nova’s recent solid work in the rotation: he entered the game allowing an average exit velocity of 97.0 mph on line drives and fly balls, the worst mark among MLB pitchers this season (min. 100 balls in play).

Deja Blue
Once again the Yankees squandered another strong outing from their starting pitcher as the offensive struggles deepened in a 4-1 loss to the Blue Jays on Tuesday night.

After the losing the first two games, the Yankees clinched their fifth consecutive series loss against the Blue Jays dating back to last year. The last time the Jays won five straight series against the Yankees was a six-series streak spanning the 1992 and 1993 seasons.

CC Sabathia wrote another chapter in his incredible renaissance season, holding the Blue Jays scoreless through six innings before being charged with a couple runs in the seventh. Still, he finished up the month with a sparkling 1.04 ERA, the best by a Yankee pitcher with at least three starts in May since Allie Reynolds (1.00) in 1952.

He hasn’t given up more than three runs in any start this year, the first time in his career he’s begun a season with eight straight starts of three-or-fewer runs allowed.

Deja Blue Part II
Re-read the first sentence of the section above and replace it with a 7-0 score — their worst shutout loss to the Blue Jays since Oct. 1, 2004 — and you’ve got the quick recap of Wednesday’s game.

With the loss, the Yankees were swept in series of three-or-more games at Toronto for the first time since Sept. 19-21, 2000. Their struggles in this city go behind the current season, though. They are now just 24-36 at the Rogers Centre since 2010, easily their worst record at any AL stadium in that span.

It’s not just the string of losses in Toronto; they’ve also been held to two runs or fewer in five straight games here for the first time in the history of this rivalry. The last time the Yankees scored two or fewer runs in five straight games at any road ballpark was in 1996 at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Texas.

Masahiro Tanaka‘s performance wasn’t perfect (and that’s basically what he needed to be with this version of the Bronx Bummers supporting him), but he worked out of jams and was good enough to hold the Blue Jays to just two runs — one earned — in six innings.

He owns an AL-best road ERA of 1.36, and has gone at least five innings and allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his six road starts this year. The only pitchers in franchise history with longer such streaks to begin a season are Hideki Irabu (1998) and Whitey Ford (1958).

DotF: Hendrix leads Charleston to a win with five hits

June 1, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Promotion season is underway: RHP Jose Campos has been bumped up from High-A Tampa to Double-A Trenton, the teams announced. Campos has finally made it out of Single-A, four years after being the other guy in the Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda trade. Expect to see several more promotions in the coming days and weeks. It’s only a matter of time until SS Jorge Mateo and 3B Miguel Andujar join Campos with the Thunder.

Triple-A Scranton (4-3 loss to Durham)

LF Ben Gamel: 0-4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 CS
RF Aaron Judge: 0-5, 2 K — hit .183/.271/.327 with a 23.7% strikeout rate in May
DH Nick Swisher: 0-4, 2 K
CF Jake Cave: 1-3, 1 BB, 1 K
SS Pete Kozma: 1-2, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K — he’s hitting .192/.274/.252 on the season, by the way
RHP Chad Green: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 6/5 GB/FB — 63 of 96 pitches were strikes (66%)
RHP Mark Montgomery: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K — 12 of 17 pitches were strikes (71%)
LHP Tyler Olson: 1.1 IP, zeroes, 2 K, 1/1 GB/FB — 12 of 15 pitches were strikes (80%)

[Read more…]

Swept: Blue Jays rout Yankees 7-0 in series finale

June 1, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Wow are the Yankees bad. I mean really, really bad. Not like 2013-14 bad. Legitimately bad. They haven’t been this bad since 1992. Maybe 1991. The Blue Jays finished the sweep with a 7-0 rout of the Yankees at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night. The Yankees have lost six of their last eight games — they were one-hit in one of the two wins! — to fall four games under .500. Again.

Tanaka Deserves Better
Masahiro Tanaka was definitely not at his best Wednesday night, but he wasn’t terrible either. Two runs (one earned) on seven hits and one walk in six innings is a winnable game. Even his bad starts are pretty good. Tanaka did not seem to have his splitter working — only two strikeouts and six swings and misses out of 104 total pitches — which led to some deep counts and long innings. So it goes.

Tanaka kept the Blue Jays off the board until the fifth inning, when a fielder’s choice sandwiched between two singles gave Toronto a 1-0 lead. Josh Donaldson drove in Darwin Barney. The Blue Jays scored their second run the next inning thanks in part to a Jacoby Ellsbury error. He straight up dropped a catchable fly ball. Actually, he dropped it, bobbled it, then juggled it for good measure.

The Yankees seem to be good for one or two plays like that a game these days. That fly ball should have been the first out of the inning. Instead it gave the Blue Jays runners on first and second with no outs. Tanaka was able to limit the damage to one run with a double play grounder. A subpar start for sure, but like I said, this wasn’t even that bad. Tanaka’s been pretty awesome.

Stranded Runners
The Yankees struggled offensively, again, and they left a bunch of runners on base, again. Earlier this season I was pointing out that hey, the Yankees were getting guys on base and that’s good. If they keep doing that the runs will come.

Well, they’re still doing it and the runs aren’t coming. Seven hits, two walks, no runs on Wednesday. They went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and of course the one hit didn’t score a run. You can measure this team’s speed with a sundial. Let us recap the blown run scoring opportunities:

Second Inning: Chase Headley struck out with runners on second and third and two outs.
Third Inning: Brian McCann struck out with runners on the corners and two outs.
Fourth Inning: Didi Gregorius and Headley struck out with a runner on second.
Fifth Inning: McCann lined out with runners on first and second and two outs.
Seventh Inning: Brett Gardner flew out with runners on first and second and one out, then Carlos Beltran flew out to end the inning with runners on the corners.

That’s about it. The Yankees were nice enough to go quietly in the eighth and ninth innings to get this game over quickly. Ellsbury and Beltran each had two hits to pace the offense. They’ve been the team’s two best hitters for a few weeks now. Alex Rodriguez doubled, Gregorius singled, and Ronald Torreyes singled as well. Gardner and McCann drew the walks. Even with nine baserunners, Wednesday’s game was about as uneventful as it gets offensively.

Blown Open Late
Kirby Yates finally has Kirby Yates numbers. He went into the game with a 2.25 ERA (3.17 FIP) and left with a 3.98 ERA (3.36 FIP). He faced five batters in the seventh and retired one. Nick Goody came in and allowed two inherited runners to score plus one run of his own. The offense has been struggling big time but two runs is doable, you know? A bloop and a blast and the game is tied. Yates and Goody then put the game out of reach by allowing five runs on four hits and two walks in that seventh inning. I wasn’t looking forward to another teaser comeback attempt in the ninth anyway.

Leftovers
That … seems like everything, doesn’t it? Richard Bleier tossed a scoreless eighth inning in his second big league appearance. Tanaka made a rare error when he threw away a pickoff attempt, allowing the runner to get all the way to third. He did managed to escape the jam though. Headley, who had a solid month of May, started June with a Golden Sombrero. Did I miss anything else? I think that covers it.

Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
Here are the box score and video highlights, plus the updated standings if you need a good cry. Check out our Bullpen Workload and Announcer Standings pages too. Here’s the loss probability graph:

Source: FanGraphs

Up Next
The Yankees are going to Detroit for a one-game series with the Tigers. They’re making up that rained out game from earlier this season. Michael Pineda and lefty Matt Boyd will be the pitching matchup. That’s a 7:40pm ET start for whatever reason. Lot of weird start times of late, no?

Game 52: Avoid the Sweep

June 1, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

So here we are. The Yankees have already lost this three-game series to the Blue Jays — they’re 0-3 in series against the Jays this season — and tonight they’re trying to avoid being swept for the third time this season. That’s surprising, isn’t it? Seems like more. They were swept by the A’s at home and the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Anyway, the Yankees have their best pitcher on the mound this evening, so that’s good. Will the Yankees actually score runs for him? Probably not but you never know. They’re hitting .169/.238/.286 as a team in the last six games. Bad. Bad bad bad. No offense is the worst offense. Here is the Blue Jays’ lineup and here is the Yankees’ lineup:

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
LF Brett Gardner
RF Carlos Beltran
C Brian McCann
1B Mark Teixeira
DH Alex Rodriguez
SS Didi Gregorius
3B Chase Headley
2B Ronald Torreyes
RHP Masahiro Tanaka

It has been cold and windy in Toronto today, so I imagine the Rogers Centre roof will be closed. The series finale will begin at 7:07pm ET and you can watch on YES. Enjoy the game.

Notes: Rob Refsnyder took ground ball at first base this afternoon, so that’s a thing that’s happening. There’s no reason not to try at this point. Dustin Ackley isn’t coming back and it’s a possible way to make Refsnyder more useful.

2016 Draft: Taylor Trammell

June 1, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Taylor Trammell | OF

Background
Trammell, 18, attends Mount Paran Christian High School not too far outside Atlanta, where he is a two-sport star. He’s hitting .393/.526/.672 with three homers, 14 walks, and eight strikeouts in 20 games so far this spring. Last fall Trammel scored 36 touchdowns and ran for nearly 2,500 yards. He had some college football opportunities, but is committed to George Tech to play baseball only.

Scouting Report
Because he’s split his time between baseball and football, Trammell is still quite raw as a baseball player, but he’s a high-end athlete whose best tool is speed that rates near the top of the scale. He does have good feel for hitting despite his inexperience, and he knows the strike zone and can square pitches up consistently. Trammell is 6-foot-2 and 195 lbs., and the expectation is he will grow into some power as he matures. Defensively, he uses his speed well in center and could be a well-above-average gloveman once he learns how to take better routes. His weakest tool is his arm. It’s below-average and not a weapon in any way. The athleticism and innate feel for hitting give Trammell very high upside despite his relative lack of experience.

Miscellany
Opinions seem to be split on Trammell. Baseball America ranked him as the 13th best prospect in the draft class in their latest rankings. MLB.com had him a little lower at 31st and Keith Law (subs. req’d) had him even lower at 44th. The Yankees pick 18th and, for what it’s worth, they’ve been connected to Trammell in mock drafts recently. The Yankees haven’t had much success developing toolsy high school kids lately and they’ve started focusing on college players in the draft because of that. Trammell would be an against the grain pick based on the last few years.