Update: Qualifying offer will be $17.2M this offseason

(Al Bello/Getty)
(Al Bello/Getty)

October 13th: The qualifying offer is $17.2M this offseason, according to Jon Heyman. That’s a bit higher than initially expected. It doesn’t change anything for the Yankees though. Teixeira is their only free agent eligible for the qualifying offer and he retired, so yeah.

July 28th: According to Buster Olney, the qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason is estimated at $16.7M. That’s up from $15.8M last season and $15.3M the offseason before. The QO is a one-year deal set at the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, and the deadline to make the offer is five days after the end of the World Series. Players then have seven days to accept or reject.

The Yankees only have one serious QO candidate: Carlos Beltran. He’s hitting .305/.347/.548 (134 wRC+) with 21 homers in 95 games this season, though his defense leaves much to be desired. I don’t think the Yankees should make Beltran the QO because he’ll probably accept it — who is giving a soon-to-be 40-year-old free agent $16.7M, even across two years? — and I don’t see that as a good thing for the reasons I outlined yesterday.

Mark Teixeira and Ivan Nova are New York’s only two other impending free agents, and based on what we heard earlier today, Nova will be traded prior to Monday’s deadline. Teixeira has been beyond awful this season, hitting .190/.270/.325 (59 wRC+) with nine homers in 71 games around a knee problem. A year ago at this time he looked like a QO candidate. Now? Now he can’t get off the team fast enough.

It’s also possible for CC Sabathia to become a free agent after the season, though that would require him to suffer a shoulder injury that would void his $25M vesting option for 2017. A healthy Sabathia is not a QO candidate at this point of his career. Sabathia with a shoulder injury? No chance. With Aroldis Chapman gone, Beltran is the Yankees’ only QO candidate. We’ll see what happens with him.

The QO offer entitles the team to a supplemental first round draft pick should the player reject the offer and sign elsewhere as a free agent. Signing a QO free agent means forfeiting your highest unprotected draft pick. It’s worth noting players who accept the QO can not be traded until June 1st of the following season, so if your plan is to make Beltran the offer and trade him if he accepts, it won’t fly. At least not immediately.

It’s worth noting the new upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement could change the QO system and I think that’ll happen, but chances are it’ll be minor tweaks rather than an overhaul. If MLB and the MLBPA reach an agreement before the end of the World Series, then the new system will presumably take effect. If not, the current QO system stays in place until the two sides announce any changes. The current CBA expires December 1st.

Rosenthal: Rangers made last minute push for Ivan Nova

(Andy Lyons/Getty)
(Andy Lyons/Getty)

According to Ken Rosenthal (video link), the Rangers made a last minute push for Ivan Nova prior to the August 1st trade deadline. The two sides exchanged proposals, and Rosenthal says talks occurred so late they might not have had time to review medical information before the deadline. Nova was instead traded to the Pirates for two prospects.

Nova, 29, had a tough start yesterday but has generally been very good for Pittsburgh. He has a 2.93 ERA (2.67 FIP) in nine starts and 55.1 innings since the trade deadline. Nine starts since the deadline? Was it really that long ago? Geez. Anyway, I’m guessing more than one team made a run at Nova before the deadline given the general need for pitching around the league. I have a few thoughts on this.

1. What would have been a comparable package from Texas? The Yankees received two players to be named later for Nova and they were legitimate prospects: outfielder Tito Polo and lefty Stephen Tarpley. They’re not high-end prospects — the Yankees traded Ivan Nova, not Greg Maddux — but they’re bonafide prospects with a chance to help the Yankees at the big league level or as trade chips at some point.

Both Tarpley and Polo were at High-A at the time of the trade. Tarpley’s a bit of a ‘tweener in that he has quality stuff but may lack the command to start long-term, while Polo is a toolsy player who may profile best as a fourth outfielder. Using MLB.com’s top 30 Rangers prospects list, here’s a list of comparable Rangers prospects:

  • RHP Pedro Payano: “Payano may lack a plus pitch, but he has three effective offerings and knows how to use them.”
  • RHP Jonathan Hernandez: “Hernandez may not have more of a ceiling than No. 4 starter, he’s a safe bet to remain in the rotation and could advance quickly.”
  • RHP Tyler Ferguson: “The bullpen might be the best destination for him anyway, because he’ll never have fine command and has yet to show aptitude for throwing an offspeed pitch.”
  • OF Jose Almonte: “Almonte’s below-average speed and quickness precipitated his move from third base but shouldn’t prevent him from becoming a competent right fielder.”

This isn’t an apples to apples comparison, of course. I was just looking for Single-A players who fit the “maybe a starter, likely a reliever” and “toolsy fourth outfielder” profiles. The Rangers system isn’t all that deep in those types of players. They have a lot of teenage infielders in the back of their top 30 prospects list.

Anyway, the point is the Yankees probably weren’t missing out on anything great by trading Nova to the Pirates instead of the Rangers. Some Single-A prospects with iffy profiles work out. Most don’t. That’s baseball.

2. The Yankees had to trade Nova. I have a hard time believing anyone would think otherwise. The Yankees sat 5.5 games back of a wildcard spot and they were coming off four straight losses the morning of the trade deadline. They had just been swept by the last place Rays. There was no reason to think they would miraculously storm back into the race, even temporarily.

Nova is an impending free agent and he was not a qualifying offer candidate because he’d pitched to a 4.99 ERA (4.98 FIP) in 191.1 innings following Tommy John surgery. They could either keep him, get another 12-13 mediocre starts, then lose him for nothing after the season, or they could trade him for some lottery tickets. Regardless of whether Nova went to the Rangers or Pirates or some other team, the Yankees were smart to move him.

3. No, the Yankees shouldn’t try to re-sign Nova. Nova’s the big winner here because there seems to be a belief that the Pirates are magicians and can fix any pitcher — why did they have to trade for Nova in the first place if that’s true? — and Nova is the latest example. Someone’s going to pay him good money in the weak free agent class, the same way J.A. Happ and Edinson Volquez made more than expected after leaving Pittsburgh.

Does that mean the Yankees should try to re-sign Nova? That’s an easy no for me. I’m not convinced his recent success is the result of anything more than a favorable schedule — he’s faced the Reds, Brewers, and Phillies six times in his nine starts — and a friendly home ballpark in the non-DH league. Nova might only be fixed the same way Phil Hughes was fixed with the Twins in 2014. Ivan’s going to get paid this winter and good for him. The 700-something innings in pinstripes far outweigh the 50-something innings with the Pirates in my opinion.

Yankees acquire Tito Polo, Stephen Tarpley to complete Ivan Nova trade

Tarpley. (Bucs Dugout)
Tarpley. (Bucs Dugout)

The Ivan Nova trade is complete. The Yankees have acquired outfielder Tito Polo and left-hander Stephen Tarpley from the Pirates to complete the deal, both teams announced. Nova was sent to Pittsburgh for two players to be named later minutes before the August 1st trade deadline.

A few weeks ago Brian Cashman said the Yankees were getting two “legitimate” prospects from the Pirates, and that’s exactly what they received. MLB.com ranks Tarpley and Polo as the No. 17 and 27 prospects in Pittsburgh’s system, respectively. Both players were on the list of potential targets I pieced together a few weeks ago. Validation!

Tarpley, 23, was originally the Orioles’ third round pick in 2013. They traded him to the Pirates for Travis Snider last year. Tarpley has a 4.32 ERA (3.92 FIP) with a 20.9% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate in exactly 100 innings for Pittsburgh’s High-A affiliate this season. Here’s a piece of his MLB.com scouting report:

He’ll run his fastball up to 94-95 mph at times and throws it with good sink to generate ground-ball outs. Tarpley has two breaking balls and likes to throw his curve more than his slider, though the Pirates feel the slider is better … He also has a good feel for his changeup, giving him a solid three-pitch mix he uses to pound the strike zone.

The 22-year-old Polo is hitting .289/.360/.451 (136 wRC+) with 16 homers and 37 steals in 109 total games between Low-A and High-A this season. The Pirates originally signed him out of Colombia back in 2012. Here’s a snippet of MLB.com’s scouting report on Polo:

Polo has shown a knack for making consistent hard contact from the right side of the plate and should continue to hit for a decent average. Though he is just 5-foot-9, he has surprising strength, and he started tapping into it more in 2016 … Polo runs very well, with his speed allowing him to be a base-stealing threat and cover a good amount of ground in the outfield … Polo plays with high energy, and that should allow him to maximize his tools. He may eventually profile best as a fourth outfielder, but one who can help a team win in a number of ways.

The Yankees didn’t get top prospects for Nova, but that was never going to happen anyway. A rental pitcher with a 4.99 ERA (4.98 FIP) in 191.1 innings since coming back from Tommy John surgery doesn’t have a ton of trade value. The Yankees did very well to get two actual prospects with a chance to help the big league team in some way, even if they’re only role players.

Both Tarpley and Polo will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season, which is pretty much the only downside here. My guess is Tarpley will be added to the 40-man roster but Polo will not. It seems unlikely he’ll be able to stick on a big league roster all next season. A team might be able to hide Tarpley in the back of the bullpen as a long man or situational reliever though.

So, all told, the Yankees acquired 12 prospects and Adam Warren in exchange for Nova, Carlos Beltran, Aroldis Chapman, and Andrew Miller. Three of the 12 are top 100 caliber prospects (Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield) and the rest are quality second and third tier pieces. Very nice deadline haul, I’d say.

Cashman: Yankees getting two “legitimate” lower level prospects for Nova

(Justin K. Aller/Getty)
(Justin K. Aller/Getty)

Even after receiving ten prospects in their various trade deadline deals, the Yankees still have two more prospects coming to them. Ivan Nova was traded to the Pirates for two players to named later, and after the trade, Brian Cashman told reporters the Yankees will pick those players from a list after the season. They’ll spend the next few weeks scouting before making a decision.

Cashman appeared on Buster Olney’s podcast last week, and during that appearance he gave some more details about those players to be named. They’re going to be two “legitimate” prospects from the lower levels of the minors. Here’s what he said:

“We’re getting two prospects from Pittsburgh for Nova, so we have to pick from a list of players and evaluate those the remaining two months (of the season). We’ll be bouncing throughout lower levels of the Pirates’ system as we make that selection and add two more pieces that are legitimate prospects.”

I saw folks I trust on Twitter saying that, in a separate radio interview, Cashman said the Yankees will be picking from a list of four players who are among Pittsburgh’s 30 prospects. I can’t find that radio interview, but like I said, I trust those who were talking about it. Also, Rob Biertempfel says the two players are not on the 40-man roster.

So, if nothing else, this helps us narrow down the list of players. Two non-40-man roster players in the lower levels who are among the Pirates’ top 30 prospects. Top 30 prospects according to whom? Who knows. Maybe Baseball America, maybe MLB.com, maybe probably the Yankees’ internal evaluation of Pittsburgh’s system. Let’s stick with MLB.com’s list because it’s free. Here are the players who fit that criteria:

5. RHP Mitch Keller
6. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
8. SS Cole Tucker
13. RHP Yeudy Garcia
17. LHP Stephen Tarpley
18. RHP Luis Escobar
20. RHP Gage Hinsz
21. 3B Kevin Kramer
25. LHP Taylor Hearn
27. RHP Dario Agrazal
28. OF Tito Polo

The Yankees did exceptionally well in their other trade deadline deals, though this is still Ivan Nova we’re talking about, so I doubt any of those first three guys are in play. Keller, Hayes, and Tucker are among the Pirates’ best prospects. Also, Hearn just came over in the Mark Melancon trade, so he’s probably off-limits too.

Based on all of that, that list of eleven players above has already been whittled down to seven: Garcia, Tarpley, Escobar, Hinsz, Kramer, Agrazal, and Polo. Personally, I really like Kramer and would be pretty thrilled to get him in the Nova deal. Really though, I’ll be happy with anyone with actual prospect value. That the Yankees are getting two players is just gravy.

Nova will be a free agent after the season and he’s not a qualifying offer candidate, so the Yankees didn’t have a ton of leverage in trade talks. His performance since returning from Tommy John surgery didn’t helped matters either. The Yankees were smart to trade Nova for whatever they could get rather than lose him for nothing after the season, and it sounds like they might actually get a pair of halfway decent prospects in return.

Yankees trade Ivan Nova to Pirates for two players to be named later

(Al Bello/Getty)
(Al Bello/Getty)

8:16pm: The Yankees have a list of players to choose from to complete the trade, according to Chad Jennings. They’re going to continue scouting those players in the coming weeks before making their picks.

4:21pm: The longest tenured homegrown Yankee is no longer a Yankee. A few minutes before today’s 4pm ET non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees agreed to send right-hander Ivan Nova to the Pirates for two players to be named later. The team has since announced the trade, so it’s a done deal. Ivan joins his buddy Frankie Cervelli in Pittsburgh.

Nova, 29, will be a free agent after the season and there was basically no reason for the Yankees to keep him. He’s not a qualifying offer candidate and getting something, even two unexciting players to be named later, is better than losing him for nothing as a free agent after the season. Trading Nova was an easy call for the front office.

In 15 starts and six relief appearances this season, Nova pitched to a 4.90 ERA (5.09 FIP) in 97.1 innings. He has a 4.99 ERA (4.98 FIP) in 191.1 innings since coming back from Tommy John surgery last year, and he finishes his Yankees career with a 4.41 ERA (4.40 FIP) in 729 total innings from 2010-16. The second half of the 2011 season was his finest stretch in pinstripes.

The Yankees originally signed Nova for $80,000 as a 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic back in July 2004. Like I said, he was the longest tenured homegrown player in the organization, and the second longest tenured overall behind Alex Rodriguez. This must be tough for Ivan. He’s been a Yankee for a long, long time.

There’s no word on who the two players to be named later will be. They don’t have be named for six months, but chances are it’ll happen long before that. They could be legitimate prospects, they could be fringe minor leaguers, or they could be 40-man roster players who have to slip through trade waivers in August before being added to the deal. We’ll see.

As for replacing Nova in the rotation, that won’t be too tough. The Yankees have both Luis Severino and Chad Green on the big league roster and stretched out. Luis Cessa is stretched out in Triple-A as well. I’m not sure there’s a wrong answer here. My guess is Severino gets the first crack at Nova’s rotation spot.

Yankeemetrics: Mediocrity at its finest [July 29-31]


Loss for #Yankees, Win for #TeamSell
With this weekend’s series against the Rays representing one final opportunity to convince the front office to keep the band together for a late-summer playoff push, the Yankees inched closer to declaring themselves sellers with another frustrating loss on Friday night.

All 10 of their hits were singles and they scored just one run in a 5-1 loss, going 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. The the only other major-league team this season (through Friday) that had a game with double-digit hits, none for extra bases, and scored one or fewer runs was the Brewers in a 8-1 loss to the Phillies on June 5.

Ivan Nova — who had posted a 2.66 ERA in his previous four turns during a stellar month of July — was predictably horrendous in Tampa against the last-place Rays lineup, allowing five runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings.

Tropicana Field has become a house of horrors for Nova. This was his first start at the dome since April 19, 2014, his final game before being diagnosed with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. And he now owns a 7.03 ERA in seven appearances (six starts) at the ballpark, the highest among all active pitchers with at least two starts and 25 innings pitched there.

The Rays clobbered Nova, with five of the six hits he allowed going for extra bases. This continues a yearlong trend of tons of loud contact against Nova, who has given up an average exit velocity of 94.9 mph on line drives and fly balls, the second-highest mark in the majors (min. 100 batted balls).

Chad Green kept the Yankees within spitting distance as he relieved Nova in the fifth inning and went the distance, throwing 3 2/3 scoreless innings. It was his third straight relief appearance with more than two innings pitched and no runs allowed. Green is just the second Yankee pitcher in the last two decades to put together a streak like that; Ramiro Mendoza had a three-gamer in 2001 and a four-gamer 2002.

You can’t spell ‘Sell’ without a couple ‘L’s’
Saturday’s deflating 6-3 defeat gave the Yankees two losses in two games to the last-place Rays, providing another layer of evidence that this team is not fit for October and needs a re-boot.


The Yankees got off to another rocky start as Nathan Eovaldi surrendered a first-inning home run to Brad Miller, the 20th homer allowed by Yankee pitchers in the opening frame this season; through Saturday’s games, the only MLB teams that had allowed more first-inning dingers were the Twins and Royals, both with 22.

Eovaldi gave up a second homer to the Rays No. 9 hitter, catcher Curt Casali, giving him 21 homers allowed in 116 2/3 innings this year. That rate of 1.62 homers per nine innings is on pace to be the third-highest single-season mark by any Yankee qualifying pitcher, behind Phil Hughes (1.65 in 2012) and Terry Mulholland (1.79 in 1994).

Starting for the first time in a week, A-Rod did little to show management that he deserved more at-bats, going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. It was the fourth game in his Yankee career that he came to the plate at least four times and struck out each time; only one other player in franchise history had four such games during their career: Mickey Mantle.

Drew Smyly, with a career strikeout rate of 24 percent (just a few ticks above the MLB average of 20 percent), is an unlikely candidate to be A-Rod’s personal kryptonite. But these are the facts: He has struck out in nine of 12 plate appearances (including playoffs) against Smyly, his highest whiff rate versus any of the 600-plus pitchers he’s faced more than five times in his 22-season career.

Just your average Yankees
On the same day the Yankees put the proverbial For Sale sign outside team headquarters in Tampa, they sunk deeper and deeper into the depths of mediocrity, losing to the Rays, 5-3.

They are now 52-52 this season, which includes a 44-44 record before the break, 8-8 after the break and a 13-13 mark in July. #TeamMediocre

It was their fifth time being swept this year, the same number they had in 2015 … with 58 games and two months remaining. And they’ve now scored no more than three runs in 55 of their 104 games, their highest total at this point in the season since 1972.

Michael Pineda once again delivered a maddeningly inconsistent performance, flashing dominance and looking strong at times (eight strikeouts), but ended up with disappointing results and a crooked final pitching line (five runs on six hits in six innings). It was his third game this season with at least eight punch outs and five earned runs allowed; no other American League pitcher has more than one such game.

Carlos Beltran put the Yankees on the board in the sixth inning with a two-run homer that sliced the Rays lead to 3-2. It was his his 22nd homer in 2016, matching Eddie Murray (1996) for the most by a switch-hitter in his age-39 season or older.

2016 Trade Deadline Rumors Open Thread: Monday

Bye, Carlos? (Hannah Foslien/Getty)
Bye, Carlos? (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

The 2016 non-waiver trade deadline is 4pm ET this afternoon, and the Yankees have already been very active. One of the most active teams in baseball, really. Within the last week they traded Aroldis Chapman, traded Andrew Miller, and added Tyler Clippard. Chances are they aren’t done either.

“Stay tuned. A lot more things could happen,” said Brian Cashman to reporters during a conference call following the Miller and Clippard trades yesterday. “If you want to become a super team, there are ways you have to go about it. We’re trying to get back to a situation where we can build an uber-team, and a sustainable one.”

Here are Sunday’s rumors. Once again, we’re going to keep track of the day’s Yankee-related rumors right here in this post. I’m going to be running around a bit today — bad timing, I know, but family first — and will do my best to update things promptly. All time stamps are ET.

  • 9:00am: The Astros, Red Sox, Indians, and Rangers are all in on Carlos Beltran. He has not yet been asked to waive his limited no-trade clause and, unsurprisingly, a trade with Boston is considered unlikely. I’m sure the thought of Beltran helping the BoSox win the World Series makes ownership squeamish, even if it means making the best possible deal. Some clubs want the Yankees to eat money to facilitate a trade. [Buster Olney, Mark Feinsand, Jon Heyman]
  • 9:00am: The Yankees continue to listen to offers for Brian McCann, Brett Gardner, Nathan Eovaldi, and Michael Pineda. They also want to unload impending free agent Ivan Nova prior to today’s deadline. [Joel Sherman]
  • 12:03pm: McCann remains a possibility for the Braves. They want the Yankees to eat a bunch of money and the Yankees want good prospects in return, so there are some things that need to be worked out. [Mark Bowman]

Reminder before you comment: Your trade proposal sucks.