River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » 2009 Yankees

Musings on the turning points of 2009

by 37 Comments

It’s often hard to pick one spot in a baseball season and say with certainty that it was the turning point for an eventual World Series winner. Yet, every team has that narrative when they say they just knew things would change. For the 1998 Yankees, it was rebounding from an 0-3 start to the season by winning 26 out of 30 games after Joe Torre’s job seemed to be on the line. But what about this year?

In one sense, the turning point for the 2009 Yankees arrived a year and a day ago when the Yanks swooped in out of nowhere to sign Mark Teixeira. Before that early Christmas present for Yankee fans arrived under our trees, the team was prepared to start the season with Nick Swisher at first base and Xavier Nady in right field. With one stroke of the pen, the Yanks found themselves stronger at the corners and with fantastic outfield depth. When Nady went down in early April with a bad elbow injury, the team barely noticed his absence.

But what of the play on the field? When did the 2009 Yankees really turn it around? I believe it came in late June in Atlanta, and I think the players would agree. The Yankees found themselves mired in an Interleague Play slump in June. They dropped two out of three to a bad Nationals team and two out of three to a mediocre Marlins club. After losing the first contest of a three-game set to the Braves, Brian Cashman made a trip to Atlanta to talk things over with his ballclub.

We may never know what was said behind closed doors, but we know the results. The Yanks went from 39-32 to 103-59 over the next three and a half months. Over a full season, that 64-27 pace would lead to a 114-win season. It was a run the likes of which we had not seen since that historic 1998 season.

As the Yanks stood on the verge of the postseason in late September, A-Rod spoke about that meeting in Atlanta. “We had a plan in Atlanta,” he said during an interview, “and we stuck with it.”

Ostensibly, the plan for A-Rod was to get him more rest. It involved keeping his surgically repaired hip feeling good while ensuring that his bat kept its spot in the middle of an offensive juggernaut. A-Rod, though, was just one of the Yanks who emerged from Atlanta with a plan. The Yanks won 13 out of 15 before getting swept by the Angels at the All Star Break, and the second half began with the Yanks going on a tear. By early August, the division was all but sewn up.

If and when someone writes the book on the 2009 Yankees, the 27th World Series championship club in franchise history, that moment in Atlanta will make for a nice narrative turn. The beleaguered general manager, tired of watching his club underperform, stepped in to rally the troops. If ever a chewing out can inspire a ballclub, that would be the one.

Now, with a winter of roster moves nearly complete, Brian Cashman is again asking us implicitly to trust him. He’s putting together another team with an eye toward repeating in the World Series. This week, he landed Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson, and these two moves could very well be this winter’s turning points. We’ll find out next year it’s for the better or the worse.

Yanks hit with $25.69 million payroll tax

by 23 Comments

For the Yankees, winning the World Series came with a hefty price tag this year as MLB announced on Monday that the Yankees were the only team to be levied a tax on its payroll in 2009. The team must pay its $25.69 million to the Commissioner’s Office by Jan. 31. This marks the seventh straight year that the Yanks have had to pay the tax, and of the $190 million in luxury tax payments collected by baseball, $174 million of that has come from the Yanks. Considering that the idea of the luxury tax was to rein in the Yanks’ spending ways, I’d say it’s been a stunning failure for baseball. At least the other teams can to benefit in form of added revenue earnings when the Yanks’ money is redistributed.

The 2009 Yanks: A good time or a good ballclub?

by 41 Comments

After 168 games, we know a lot about the spirit of the Yankees. With Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and A.J. Burnett around, they are a fun-loving club. Sure, the super-serious trio of Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter and, yes, Alex Rodriguez make up the core of their offensive club, but for the Yanks, the fun is why they’re winning. Or so goes the narrative.

At the end of last week, on the verge of the ALCS, the serious Wall Street Journal explored the Yanks’ fun side. The article is a bit incongruous; due to the Journal’s style guide leads to a whole bunch of references to Mr. Swisher and Mr Damon. But the point remains: It is because of the Yanks’ fun-loving ways that they are a good team. “Fun creates winning,” Swisher has said. “You’re looser when you’re having fun. Your true ability comes out, rather than being tense.”

Matthew Futterman and Austin Kelley explore this concept as it relates to the Yankees:

Since the 2003 World Series, the last one the Yankees appeared in, the team has gone about its business with the sober professionalism of a group of pall-bearers. In 2005, after the Yankees started the season 11-19, Mr. Torre told the New York Times, “There’s a lot of tension. One to 10, it’s probably an 8. You try to say things to loosen people up, you make jokes, and there’s required laughing. Nothing is spontaneous. This is our life.” To compound the pressure, there was always a chance that volcanic owner George Steinbrenner would threaten somebody’s livelihood.

Before this season, Mr. Girardi said he got the sense that this team might be different. “There was closeness that developed on the pitching staff,” Mr. Girardi said. Shortly after spring training began, Mr. Girardi noticed that Mr. Burnett was taking several of the other pitchers on outings in the afternoons and evenings. Mr. Sabathia was taking teammates to Orlando Magic games. “Just seeing these guys through the first couple weeks in the spring, I knew it was going to be a real laid-back and relaxed atmosphere,” he said.

As the season began, despite the pressure of christening the new Yankee Stadium—and the distraction of a steroids scandal involving Mr. Rodriguez—the light mood prevailed. On May 15, after beating the Twins with a two-out, walk-off single, Melky Cabrera was getting ready for a postgame TV interview when Mr. Burnett snuck up behind him and smeared a towel full of whipped cream on his face. Two days later, after three consecutive walk-off wins, that day’s hero, Johnny Damon, was so worried about getting a pie that Mr. Burnett had to sneak up on him by hiding behind a teammate. “A.J. has been a big part of the looseness of the clubhouse,” Mr. Girardi said. “His attitude is great. He brings a lot of energy every day.”

That’s all well and good, right? But when it comes down it, the Yankees won this year because they hit .283/.362/.478 with a franchise-record 244 home runs as their pitchers put up a 4.28 ERA and led the AL in strike outs. I’m often skeptical of the narrative that fun leads to winning. Generally, as I’ve learned from the teams I’ve been on, winning leads to fun and not the other way around. I’ve been on bad teams that have fun, but my teammates on the good ones always got along better.

What if, though, there is some truth to the theory that players perform better when they are more or less relaxed? The Journal reporters took a look at some of the sports psychology studies on the make up of athletes and found some support for the belief that players having fun perform better:

Research shows that heightened anxiety causes athletes’ muscles to tighten and decreases their mental focus. “The classic example is when someone freezes from stress,” said Daniel Gould, a sports-psychology professor at Michigan State and co-author of “Understanding Psychological Preparation for Sport: Theory and Practice of Elite Performers.” “In sports, you don’t see people freeze, but an athlete that’s a little tight might miss the plate by a hair.”

Not all athletes play their best when they’re relaxed. “It’s like each of us has our own temperature we perform best at,” Prof. Gould said, “and you have a thermostat. You learn to psych yourself up if you’re not up enough, and you learn how to cool off a little if you’re too hot.” But for the most part, psychologists say, professional athletes need to keep stress levels down. “Having a relaxed clubhouse is good,” Mr. Gould said.

So there you have it. Conclusive proof that some players perform better when relaxed and some do not. I enjoy seeing the Yankees have fun because I have more fun. We all love watching Burnett — Mr. Burnett — pie another teammate. In the end, though, the Yanks have won 108 games this year because they are a very good team, relaxed clubhouse or not.

America: Yanks still our team

by 22 Comments

Just in case there were any doubts, a new poll has confirmed that the Yankees are indeed still America’s Team. In a nationwide poll of 800 respondents, Sacred Heart University pollsters found that 41.6 percent chose the Yanks for the top spot. The Red Sox came in second with 16.3 percent of the vote followed by the Braves, Cubs, Phillies, Cardinals, Mets and Tigers. If the Mets are America’s Team, that does not speak highly of our country. The margin of error for the poll was +/- 3.5 percent, and, needless to say, it’s good to be on top.

A health-ful perspective

by 71 Comments

By the time the 2008 season ended for the Yankees, the team could have been considered among baseball’s walking wounded. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll, last year’s Yankee team lost 1460 player days to injuries, and many of the old Yankee corps were trending into the red for 2009. Yet, the Yankees have stayed remarkably healthy, and because of that, they are in a prime position for a run deep into October.

Last year started out on a bad note for the Yankees’ overall health. On the first day of the season, Jorge Posada hurt his shoulder throwing down to second. He would go onto play just 51 games all season, and the Yankees’ catcher spot would never recover. Jose Molina, Chad Moeller and Ivan Rodriguez were inadequate replacements to say the least.

Posada, though, wasn’t the only Yankee to miss time last year. Hideki Matsui made it through just 93 games before his knees gave out. A-Rod hit the DL with a quad strain in late April. Chien-Ming Wang went down with his career-derailing foot injury.

Outside of the time lost to the disabled list, the 2008 Yankees featured its fair share of banged-and-bruised players. As Tyler Kepner details in this excellent profile of Derek Jeter, the Yankee captain battled a lingering quad injury and a hand injury for much of the season. Joba Chamberlain had a shoulder issue, and Andy Pettitte’s arm didn’t last the year. While the 2009 Mets take the injury cake, the 2008 Yankees were no slouches.

This year, though, the story has been entirely different. Alex Rodriguez missed the first six weeks with injury; Jorge Posada missed a few weeks with a hamstring strain; Chien-Ming Wang has been a non-factor all season; Xavier Nady, we hardly knew ye. Outside of those injuries — and just two of them had a long-term impact on this season — Mariano’s sore groin is the most significant pain to hurt the Yankees in recent months.

Now, I don’t mean to downplay Nady’s or Wang’s absence. The Yankees, though, have managed to overcome those problems. Nick Swisher has been one of the team’s most productive hitters this year. In fact, it’s hard to imagine Nady topping Swisher’s numbers. That leaves Wang as the most significant missing piece this year. So instead of missing their starting catcher, number one starter and DH for much of the season, they’ve been short a mid-rotation starter, and that’s it.

Meanwhile, the banged up Yankees haven’t been feeling it this year. While, for example, Paul O’Neill limped to the end of his 2001 season, Jeter, Damon and Pettitte, the guys who always play hurt, have been feeling great. I don’t need to analyze the numbers for us to know that their contributions have all been much greater this year than last. We see it everyday.

In the end, the Yankees’ 2009 success so far has rested primarily on the fact that Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson were replaced by CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. The defense, with Mark Teixeira at first and Nick Swisher in right, is far superior too than last year’s. But the Yankees’ medical staff deserves some credit too. It isn’t easy to keep a team of position players mostly all on the wrong side of 30 healthy, and so far this year, Gene Monahan and crew have.

A look at the last 35 games

by 56 Comments

When Junichi Tazawa — Japanese for Brad Penny — and the Red Sox lost to the White Sox tonight, the Yankees moved one game closer to wrapping up the AL East. With 35 games left this year, their magic number is 30. While that six-game lead can sometimes seem small and sometimes seem large, if the Yanks go 18-17 the rest of the way, the Red Sox would have to go 24-11 just to tie in the East. I doubt this Sox club can play .686 baseball for five weeks.

Anyway, with the stretch drive upon us, the Yankees have a few goals ahead of them: They have to rest their regulars to make sure that everyone is as fresh as possible for an October run. They have to get their pitching in order. And they have to accomplish these two goals while winning the division in a way that inspires confidence among the fans and, more importantly, the players. For how well the Yanks have played lately, backing into the post-season just won’t cut it.

As the White Sox come to town for the last home set in August, let’s take a look ahead at the Yanks’ schedule. In September, they face some very good teams and some very bad teams. In between is an annoying and potentially dangerous trip to Seattle and Anaheim.

I miss the days of baseball when September used to be reserved for division rivals only. A West Coast trip in the second-to-last week of the season should be outlawed. But such are the way of things. The Yanks could very well be playing in Anaheim come the first week in October, and the team should be prepared for the long flight.

Take a look at how the Yanks’ remaining opponents break down by record:

[TABLE=30]

As you can see, the Yanks play most of their games against teams at or above .500. Of course, had the White Sox lost on Thursday, these numbers would be flipped, but luckily for us, they did not. If the Yanks play just .500 ball against their .500 or better opponents, they would be 10-10 with 15 games left against bad teams. If they go 10-5 against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Royals — not an unreasonable assumption — they would finish the season 20-15, good for 99 wins. Technically, Boston could catch them, but it isn’t likely. Plus, I believe the Yanks can play better than .500 ball against their so-called “good” opponents. A series win against Chicago would get this stretch off on the right foot.

The key team in all of this is Tampa Bay. Recently ranked as the game’s best team in Beyond the Box Score’s SABR-minded power rankings, Tampa has given the Yanks trouble recently. They’re still clinging to the hopes of a playoff spot, and their season is hanging in the balance. These two teams play four at home starting with a Labor Day day-night double header, and Tampa will try to make things interesting.

In the end, I hate to count my AL East chickens before they hatch. I’ve seen far too many Yankee clubs sleepwalk their ways through September, and I won’t relax until the champagne is flowing. But I’d expect that party soon enough. Maybe it’ll come in Anaheim, but maybe it will happen at the best moment of September: with the Red Sox in town and on the field. I can dream, right?

Getting more or less what the Yanks paid for

by 35 Comments

One of the common narratives around the baseball world involves the Yankees and their dollars. The Yankees overspend without regard for value, and while the team has the best record in baseball, they bought it. Or so they say. Today, J. Walter Fulbright at the recently-revived Gritty and Clutch examines whether or not the Yanks have gotten their money’s worth out of the team this year. Using salary performance numbers from Fangraphs and projected 2009 numbers, Fulbright determines that the Yankees’ 2009 value over contract will fall within the $20-$40 million, depending upon the team’s final payroll numbers. In other words, the Yankees aren’t paying their players enough.

On an individual level, A-Rod is the Yanks’ worst investment this year. He is getting paid a whopping $32 million and is projected to turn in just $16.1 million in value. Robinson Cano, with a value over contract of $13.52 million, has so far provided the team with the most bang for their buck.