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ALCS Preview: The Bullpen

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With plenty of time between the end of play Sunday and the start of the ALCS on Friday evening, we’ve been taking our time previewing the series. We’ve already looked at the infielders, the starters, and the managers, so now we’ll hit the relief corps.

The Yankees bullpen was rock solid last year, so fans expected more of the same this year since the cast of characters was largely unchanged. Things didn’t go as planned in April, and soon guys like Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, and Jon Albaladejo were jettisoned in favor of younger players, who proved to be up to the task. The only two relievers to stay on the team’s active roster wire-to-wire were Mariano Rivera and Phil Coke. The rest of the group came aboard around May.

As a whole, the Yankees bullpen thoroughly outperformed their haloed counterparts. Let’s break it down…

Angels Yankees
ERA 4.45 4.28
FIP 4.45 4.32
WHIP 1.41 1.35
K/9 6.61 7.82
BB/9 3.26 3.56
HR/9 1.12 1.12
AVG .271 .253
GB/FB 1.06 1.11
WAR +16.6 +18.7

The Yankees have the Angels beat, or at least tied, in every category but walks per nine innings, and even there the difference is just one free pass every 30 innings. That doesn’t even take into consideration the division each team plays in. It’s safe to say the Yanks come into the series with a superior bullpen, though let’s break it down on an even deeper level anyway.

The Angels carried just ten pitchers on their ALDS roster, four of them starters. That leaves just six relievers, whereas the Yankees rolled with eight in the Division Series (eleven pitchers total, three starters). That makes for a tricky comparison, but we’ll manage.

Closer: Mariano Rivera vs. Brian Fuentes
Well, there’s not much debate here, so I’ll keep it short. Mo again defied age this year, posting a phenomenal 72-12 K/BB ratio in 66.1 IP. Fuentes got the job done for the Angels, but he allowed 78 baserunners in just 55 IP and was rather shaky all season. Mike Scioscia can say he has confidence in his closer all he wants, but the fact of the matter is that no one in Yankee Universe will feel the good guys are out of it until that 27th out is recorded.

High-Leverage Guys: Joba Chamberlain & Phil Hughes vs. Jason Bulger & Kevin Jepsen
The Angels relief core suffered a huge blow in late May when their ultrareliable and long-time setup man Scot Shields went down for the season with a knee injury. Jose Arredondo got the first shot at replacing Shields, but faltered and wound up back in Triple-A before being left off the playoff roster. Not only did Plan A get hurt, but Plan B failed as well.

Luckily for Scioscia, Bulger stepped up his game and was fantastic pretty much all season, posting a 1.99 ERA and a .172 AVG against while striking out 52  in 54.1 IP from May 2nd to Sept. 23rd (we won’t count four subpar outings to end the season against him). The problem is that he walks more guys than you’d like a late inning reliever to, 30 in 64.1 IP this year. Baseball America ranked Jepsen the team’s 6th best prospect coming into the season, and even though he struggled in the first half, he finished the year strong: .245-.302-.274 against after August 8th, with a 2.24 FIP. Both Bulger and Jepsen can bring it, dialing it up to the mid-90’s, and they’ve been effective late game options for the Angels down the stretch.

The Yankees have their own pair of hard throwing setup men now that Joba Chamberlain has joined Phil Hughes in the bullpen for the playoffs. Hughes was simply masterful as a reliever this season, putting up a 1.93 FIP and a .456 OPS against in over 50 IP (51.1, to be exact). Joba has looked good in a tiny sample after going back into the bullpen for the playoffs, and while it’s unreasonable to expect him to repeat his 2007-2008 bullpen performance, all he needs to do is throw strikes with his stuff to be effective. Easier said than done, of course.

Edge goes to the Yankees because of Hughes’ utter dominance in baseball’s toughest division, however no one should sleep on Bulger and Jepsen, they could open some eyes this series.

Lefty: Phil Coke vs. Darren Oliver
Darren Oliver, the ageless wonder, enjoyed a fantastic season at age 38, allowing just 83 baserunners in 73 IP against 65 strikeouts. He pitched in all three ALDS games against Boston, allowing just one hit in 2.1 IP. Mike Scioscia uses him as more than just a lefty specialist, often asking Oliver to pitch full innings late in close games. Oddly enough, he has a reverse platoon split, so the Angels don’t have an obvious weapon against lefty batters in the bullpen. Maybe the Yanks can loan them Damaso Marte for the series.

Phil Coke, on the other hand, should be used strictly as a lefty specialist this series, and in fact his sole purpose in the ALCS will be to get Bobby Abreu out. Coke held lefties to a .195-.218-.366 batting line this year, and even though he worked full innings – facing both lefties and righties – at times this year, the Yanks have plenty of other options that will relegate Coke to LOOGY status this series. It tough to give anyone edge here because we’re talking about two different pitchers in two different roles, but I guess if I had to pick, I’d go with Oliver because he’s just flat out been better this year.

Long Man: Chad Gaudin vs. Matt Palmer
Palmer, a career minor league journeyman that finally stuck at age 30, made a few starts early in the season for the Halos (you may remember this game), but moved to the bullpen because a) he sucked (5.10 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), and b) because some of the Angels’ regular starters got healthy. Like Gaudin, who’s been better than anyone could have expected since being acquired from the Padres, Palmer figures to only appear in blowouts or as the last reliever out of the pen in extra inning games.

Both pitchers excel against righties but struggle against lefties, however I’m giving the Yankees get the edge simply because Gaudin strikes out way more guys (8.5 K/9 vs. 5.1). Strikeouts are better than ground outs, especially in the playoffs.

Misc. Relievers: Ervin Santana vs. David Robertson, Al Aceves, Brian Bruney/Damaso Marte
Herein lies a considerable difference between the two bullpens. Beyond the five guys we talked about above, the only other reliever in the Angels bullpen is starter turned reliever for the postseason Ervin Santana (ZOMG why won’t they just pick a role for him already?!?1?). Santana battled an elbow injury early in the season, and was just so-so when he was on the mound. He put 204 runners on base in just 139.2 IP, served up one homer every six innings, and his 47 walks tied his total from 2008, when he threw almost 80 more innings. Santana was better in the final two months of the season (3.95 FIP) against mostly crap competition, but he didn’t even warm up in the ALDS. He appears to be Mike Scioscia’s Plan D, at best.

The Yankees, on the other hand, went with quantity and quality to fill out the rest of their bullpen. Al Aceves was a godsend in May, pitching in every role imaginable. His 1.01 WHIP was second best in the league among pitchers with at least 80 IP, behind only Andrew Bailey of the A’s. David Robertson is a strikeout fiend, with 314 K’s in 226.2 career innings, majors and minors. We’re still not sure whether Marte will remain with the club in the ALCS, or if he’ll be replaced by Bruney because of matchups, but either guy figures to be one of the last options outs of Girardi’s pen. Aceves alone makes this a win for the Yanks, but having Robertson available too is just showing off.

As we saw in the stats above, the Yanks have a clear advantage over the Angels when it comes to the bullpen. The Fightin’ Scioscia’s will rely heavily on Jepsen, Bulger, and Oliver in the middle innings, while Palmer and Santana are break glass in case of emergency guys only. The Yankees have depth, with Joba and Hughes forming a powerful bridge in the late innings. At the very least, Coke has the tools necessary to neutralize Abreu, while Aceves and Robertson are looming should trouble arise at any point before the 7th inning.

The Angels starters completed six innings in nine of the ten games they played the Yankees this year, and they have to hope their starters continue to work deep into the games to minimize the bullpen face time. Otherwise, it’ll just be open season for the Bombers.

Hello, Angels. We’ve met before, haven’t we?

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Tomorrow night, there will be baseball. Tomorrow night, the Yankees and the Angels will take the field, and at 7:57 p.m., CC Sabathia will throw the first pitch to Chone Figgins. As Thursday dawns, though, we still wait for that first ALCS in the Bronx in five years.

When last the Yankees reached the ALCS, they played a Red Sox team that had just dispatched the Angels in three straight games. This year, the Angels returned the favor, and the Yanks play a team they have beaten in three of their last four contests instead of eight of nine. Now, all that stands between the Yanks and the Fall Classic is a well-rounded ballclub from Orange County.

To prepare for the Angels, let’s look back at how these two teams fared in games against each other. On the season, the Angels outscored the Yanks 65-55, but the two clubs split 10 contests. The Yanks won the first two and last two but didn’t do too well in the middle.

April 30, 2009: Yankees 7, Angels 4 (Box Score) (RAB Recap)
WP: Phil Coke
LP: Justin Speier
SV: Mariano Rivera
HR: Mike Napoli, Johnny Damon
In the first match-up of the year between these two teams, A.J. Burnett faced off against Anthony Ortega, but neither starter would factor into the decision. Burnett worked his way through seven decent innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk, and the Yanks tagged the forgettable Ortega for four runs over 6.1 innings. The Yanks wrapped this one up with a big 7th against Justin Speier. With one out, Robinson Cano singled, Jorge Posada hit a ground-rule double and Nick Swisher walked. Melky singled home Cano, and Ramiro Peña, playing for an injured A-Rod, doubled in Posada and Swisher. [Read more…]

Should the Yankees tweak their roster for the ALCS?

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Up until a few years ago, teams weren’t allowed to change their rosters between playoff rounds. I don’t remember when exactly they started letting teams do this, but it was 2005 or 2006, somewhere around there. Anyway, now teams can optimize their roster to best match up with their next opponent, which in theory makes for more entertaining playoff games. Does it work? Eh, I dunno.

For the most part, the Yankees roster will remain unchanged. In fact, the only spots that we really need to discuss are the second lefty reliever and maybe the third catcher. As you probably already know, I’m not a fan of letting Jose Molina catch AJ Burnett, but it seems as though the Yankees are, and that’s all that counts. Because of that, it makes sense to carry a third catcher so they can pinch run for Jorge Posada in the late innings of a close game after he already pinch hit for Molina, basically what happened in Game Two of the ALDS.

That leaves just the second LOOGY spot up for grabs, or perhaps it would be more accurate to refer to it as the 11th spot in the bullpen. Unlike the Twins, who had two .900+ OPS lefty hitters in the middle of their lineup, the Angels only have one lefty swinger of note in their starting nine: ex-Yank Bobby Abreu. However, they could pencil as many as five switch hitters into their lineup on any given day, which could/will present some matchup issues. Let’s take a look at the platoon splits of those five switch hitters…

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Erick Aybar .305-.351-.411 .325-.356-.448
Chone Figgins .323-.407-.437 .246-.325-.305
Maicer Izturis .290-.344-.428 .380-.475-.500
Gary Matthews Jr. .261-.341-.352 .221-.323-.384
Kendry Morales .309-.366-.596 .273-.326-.488

Of those five, Figgins has the hardest time with southpaws, and it’s not even close. He basically turns into Yuniesky Betancourt whenever there’s a lefty on the mound, which bodes well for when CC Sabathia or Andy Pettitte start the game. Kendry Morales, who completely annihilated the Yankees this year, drops about 150 OPS points against lefties, but is still a force at the dish. Do you want your second lefty facing him in a big spot, or one of your top righties? Obviously the latter, and you’re not going to carry a second lefty just for lil old Chone.

Based on that, the Yanks would be better off swapping out the 11th man on their staff, currently a second lefty, in favor of another righty. In this case, the second lefty would be Damaso Marte, because no matter how much we want him to be the primary lefty, the Yankees just aren’t going to have it, at least not this year. Who takes his spot? Well the obvious candidate is Brian Bruney, yet another power arm to deploy against the team that struggles against quality fastballs. As long as Joe Girardi understands that Bruney is at the bottom of the short relief pecking order, it’s cool with me. Seriously, there’s no reason for him to enter a game before David Robertson, Al Aceves, Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes unless the Yanks are winning big or losing big.

So, 500+ words later, I think the Yankees should drop Marte off their ALCS roster and replace him with the equally unpredictable Bruney, who is a slightly better matchup because of the arm he throws with and how hard he throws. The ALCS roster isn’t the most efficient because they’re carrying a third catcher, something you don’t often see teams do in the postseason. However, if the Yanks take care of business, it shouldn’t even come into play.

Quick Hits: Peterson on pitching, roster decisions and the ALCS sked

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Interesting stuff, no?

* * *

As we await the weekend start to the ALCS, the Yankees are busy attempting to put together a 25-man team best suited to take on the rival Angels. Brian Costa of The Star-Ledger says the roster won’t change much for the ALCS, but he does highlight a few questions the Yanks are attempting to answer.

First, Costa notes that the Jose Molina/A.J. Burnett/Jorge Posada love triangle has yet to be resolved. Girardi liked what he saw when Burnett threw to Molina on Friday, and the two could be battery-mates again this Saturday. If the Yanks pair up Jose and A.J., Francisco Cervelli will be on the roster. Otherwise, the speedy Freddy Guzman could earn a spot on the team.

Next, Costa takes on Damaso Marte. The lefty couldn’t get out the only two lefties he had to face against the Twins, and since the Angels are a right-hand heavy team, Marte may find himself sitting this round out. In his place, the Yanks would take Brian Bruney instead. For what it’s worth, the Angels’ team platoon splits were incredibly consistent. They hit .285/.353/.440 against righties and .286/.342/.446 against lefties. Bruney, who has been throwing in Tampa to stay ready, is probably the better choice for this round.

* * *

Finally, we have a full ALCS schedule, and the game’s start times are, well, odd. Take a look. All times are Eastern, and all games are on FOX:

Game 1 (Friday, Oct. 16 @NYY): 7:57 p.m.
Game 2 (Saturday, Oct. 17 @NYY): 7:57 p.m.
Game 3 (Monday, Oct. 19 @LAA): 4:13 p.m.
Game 4 (Tuesday, Oct. 20 @LAA): 7:57 p.m.
Game 5* (Thursday, Oct. 22 @LAA): 7:57 p.m.
Game 6* (Saturday, Oct. 24 @NYY): 4:13 p.m.
Game 7* (Sunday, Oct. 25@NYY): 8:20 p.m.

* If necessary

Those of us who work will miss a good chunk of Monday’s game, and if the Yanks and Angels need six games, the Saturday afternoon affair will start amidst shadows in the Bronx. That’s the power of high-priced TV deals for you.

* * *

Here’s your open thread for the night. There’s no baseball until Thursday, plus all the local hockey teams are off tonight. The only local sports on tonight are the Nets and Knicks on YES and MSG, respectively. Hopefully you have dinner plans, or at least some stuff on the DVR to catch up on. Chat about whatever you like here, just follow the guidelines and be excellent to each other.

ALCS Preview: The starters

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For the third time in the last eight years, the Yankees and Angels will lockup in a postseason series. This time they’re meeting in the American League Championship Series, so a trip to the World Series is directly on the line. Much will be made about how the Angels have handled the Yanks in recent years (53-38 head-to-head in the Scioscia Era), but these are different teams with different players kicking off a brand new series tied at zero.

We’ve already taken a look at the managers, so let’s move on to the guys that will set the tone each game, the starting pitchers.

Game One: CC Sabathia vs. John Lackey
Prior to 2009, Sabathia’s postseason career was nothing to look at. Lackey, on the other hand, has a pretty impressive playoff record. As a rookie, he won Game Seven of the 2002 World Series on three day’s rest, and in total he’s made 10 postseason starts (and two relief appearances) with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, both considerably lower than his regular season stats. However, Lackey missed parts of the last two seasons with arm injuries, and he’s walking more batters while striking out fewer now than he did in his heyday. Against the lifeless Red Sox in the ALDS, Lackey threw 7.1 scoreless innings.

Sabathia, on the other hand, is no chump. He’ll start Game One with 236.2 innings already on his arm, which is what he’d thrown through Sept. 20th last year. He settled down very nicely after a rocky first three innings against the Twins in the ALDS, temporarily shaking that postseason choker tag. Regardless of that nonsense, Sabathia has similar walk, strikeout, and homerun rates as Lackey, but he’s much tougher to hit, holding opponents to a .233 batting average against. The Angels struggle against quality fastballs, so Sabathia is the ideal guys to kick off the series.

Game Two: A.J. Burnett vs. Jered Weaver
Weaver, like Lackey, feasted on the punchless Red Sox in the ALDS, tossing 7.1 innings of two-hit, one-run ball. His walk, strikeout, homer, and hit rates are all similar to Lackey’s, but he’s already 39.2 IP over his previous career high set last year, so fatigue could end up being a factor. He also struggles against lefties, who’ve got close to a .200 point OPS advantage off Weaver than righties. The Yankees have also proven to be a tough assignment throughout his career, hitting him up for a .263-.341-.558 batting line, resulting in a 5.88 ERA in seven career starts.

With his personal catcher behind the plate, Burnett walked a tightrope in his first career playoff start last week. Giving away free passes at a rate of five every six innings isn’t going to cut it, especially since an Angels team that will run wild on the basepaths and hits extremely well with men in scoring position. However, Burnett has the same advantage as Sabathia in that he’s a power pitcher, though he had one good and one bad start against the Halos this year. This one might be a wash.

Game Three: Andy Pettitte vs. Scott Kazmir
It’s amazing to think that because of Tampa Bay’s run to the Fall Classic last year, Scott Kazmir had made as many postseason starts (6) as CC Sabathia. His postseason track record mirrors his regular season struggles over the last two years, however Kazmir has rediscovered some of the velocity that made him so highly touted a few years ago, and you know that all those years in the brutal AL East means he won’t crap his pants when the Bombers roll into town. Pettitte, well there’s not much to say about his postseason track record that hasn’t already been said a million times over. You have to favor the Yanks here.

Given the schedule of the ALCS, both teams could deploy their top starter on three day’s rest in Game Four, then again on full rest in Game Seven. It makes sense for both clubs to do that regardless of how the first three games play out, because they both sport inferior fourth starter options.

The Yankees used Chad Gaudin and Joba Chamberlain as their number four and five starters down the stretch, though Joba was effective in short stints out of the bullpen in the ALDS, and you get the feeling that Joe Girardi likes having that extra power arm available late in the game. That makes it likely the team would turn to Gaudin for a potential Game Four start.

Despite his success in September (3.54 ERA, team was 5-0 in his five starts), Gaudin’s weakness is that he has trouble getting lefthanders out because he’s so fastball-slider heavy. On the year, he’s held righties to a .224-.293-.380 batting line, but lefties rocked him to the tune of .296-.408-.415. On any given day the Angels can run pencil six lefties into their lineup (well, Bobby Abreu plus five switch hitters), obviously not a good matchup for Gaudin. Regardless of how effective Chad was down the stretch, CC Sabathia on three day’s rest is better than anything else the Yankees have.

As for the Angels, they could go with southpaw Joe Saunders in Game Four, but he’s just as shaky an option as Gaudin. After his breakout 2008 season, Saunders allowed 15 more hits, 8 more homers, and 11 more unintentional walks in 12 fewer innings in 2009. He also battled a shoulder injury, putting up a 2.55 ERA in eight starts against weak competition to finish the year after coming off the DL. Like Gaudin, Saunders has a significant platoon split, holding lefties to a .696 OPS while righties pound him for a .829 OPS. Unlike Gaudin, Saunders doesn’t strike anyone out (4.9 K/9), which plays right into the Yankees strength because they struck out less than all but three teams this season (one stupid little strikeout away from that being just two teams). Again, John Lackey on three day’s rest is a superior option.

It’s entirely possible one of the two managers will try to get cute with a 3-0 or 2-1 series lead and go to their fourth starter, but in a potential seven game series against one of the three best teams in the league? I want my ace taking the ball as much as possible. Assuming the the Yanks go with Sabathia in Game Four, you have to give the Yanks the edge when it comes to the rotation because of the ability to trot out premium hard throwers in five of the seven possible games.

ALCS Preview: A tale of two managers

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When the Yankees and the Angels begin their ALCS series on Friday, the coverage on FOX is sure to center around the two men leading these teams. Mike Scioscia and Joe Girardi have a lot in common. They were both defensive-minded catchers known for playing hard and coming prepared. As managers, they both sport identical .556 winning percentages although the Angels’ skipper has compiled his over ten seasons while Girardi has just three years of experience in the dugout.

The Angels, as we all know, play the Yankees hard. Including the post-season, the Angels are 53-38 against the Yanks since Scioscia assumed the managerial duties from Terry Collins and Joe Maddon after a fourth-place finish in 1999. As Ken Davidoff writes today, Scioscia is not intimidated by the Yankees. But what Major League manager would be intimidated by any of his opponents?

This year, Scioscia led his team to 97 victories, good for second best in the Major Leagues and six shy of the Yanks’ mark. When these two teams faced off, they played to a draw. The Angels won four of the first six contest, and the Yanks won three of the last four. Yet, despite their respective successes, Mike Scioscia and Joe Girardi approach the game differently. We can see it in the way the Yankees draw more walks, hit more home runs and rely less on the small base approach embodied in bunting, stealing and hitting-and-running than the Angels do.

Offensively, the Angels’ differing approach is clear from the get-go. The Yankees hit a franchise-record 244 home runs this year and slugged .478 as a team. The Angels hit 71 fewer home runs and slugged .441. Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins both drew more than 90 walks, but only one other player on the team had an on-base percentage above .360. Of the Yanks’ starting nine, only Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano sported OBPs below that .360 mark. The Angels like to swing and run; the Yankees like to wait and mash.

Strategically, Scioscia takes advantage of his team’s speed. He attempted 171 stolen bases this year, and his runners were successful 127 times good for a 74.2 percent success rate. Joe Girardi’s Yankees meanwhile were better base runners but more cautious for it. The Yanks attempted 124 steals and were successful 101 times or 81.5 percent of the time. The Angels went 9 for 11 in double-steal situations while the Yanks were a perfect 4-for-4. Expect the Angels to test Jorge Posada when he is behind the dish during the series.

Scioscia will also play small ball far more often than the Yanks do. Joe Girardi asked his players to sacrifice 49 times this season, and 21 of those sac bunt attempts came with the pitcher batting during Interleague play. The Angels, meanwhile, tried to sacrifice 64 times with non-pitchers trying 41 times. Percentage-wise, 57 percent of Yankee bunts were by non-pitchers while 64 percent of Angels’ bunt attempts were by non-pitchers. Scioscia will, in other words, play for one run.

Where this series may very well be decided, though, is in the bullpen. Joe Girardi made 461 pitching changes as compared to Scioscia’s 434, and the Yankees got better results for it. Yankee relievers did not allow runs to score in 301 of those appearances or 65 percent of the time. The Angels, meanwhile, did not allow runs 62 percent of the time. While that pure difference is seemingly small, the Yanks’ pen went 40-17 with a 3.91 ERA while the Angels’ relievers were 27-23 with a 4.49 ERA. As Mike noted last night, the Anaheim pen is definitely a weakness.

And so those are the ALCS managers. Can Scioscia exploit the Angels’ speed and small ball approach? Can Joe Girardi use his superior bullpen to leverage late-inning situations better than the Angels can? Can the Yanks’ skipper win his chess game? These two men will take center stage over the next week, and we’ll find out just whose strategy works best.

MLB announced start times for ALCS Games 1 and 2

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Get ready for some weekend night games. According to Carig, the Yankees and Angels have start times for Friday’s and Saturday’s games. Game 1 on Friday will start at 7:37 p.m., and Game 2 on Saturday will start at the same time. First pitch times for the games in Anaheim have yet to be announced. All ALCS games will be broadcast on FOX by the dynamic duo of Tim McCarver and Joe Buck. Hooray.