River Avenue Blues

River Ave. Blues » Hot Stove League » Page 276

Mets may force Yanks’ hand with Posada

by 15 Comments

For the first 15 days following the World Series, free agents are allowed to talk to and negotiate with only their former teams. That, however, doesn’t stop interested teams from using other means — like the media — to express their interest. And that’s just what the Mets are doing in their pursuit of Jorge Posada.

Both The New York Post and Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal are reporting that the Mets are prepared to go all-in in their effort to land the services of the Yankees’ All Star catcher. From The Post:

The Mets have interest in Posada, the longtime Yankee catcher who filed for free agency on Monday and who would fill a position of uncertainty for the club. Paul Lo Duca has filed for free agency as well. Though Lo Duca’s agent, Andrew Mongelluzzi, said yesterday the Mets have an interest in re-signing him, he is no lock to return. Either way, Posada is a more accomplished option…

The tricky issue with the Mets and Posada is that the Yankees will bid for the backstop, who made $12 million this past year. They’re expected to offer him a three-year deal in the range of $40 million, and they almost certainly won’t be the only other team in the hunt either, as the Marlins could be a surprise candidate. Posada loves the Yankees – he’s been with them since debuting in 1995 – but does like New York, meaning the Mets could be viable if he doesn’t return to The Bronx.

Right now, the Mets are talking with Lo Duca, but it’s clear that Posada is the superior catcher. Now, while the Yanks are probably going to offer Posada a three-year deal with a performance-based option, if they don’t wrap it up before those 15 days are over, the Mets could jump in with an offer that just might break the bank. And that is our Jorge Posada Doomsday scenario.

What happens if the Mets offer Posada a guaranteed four- or even five-year deal at $15 million a year? It’s not out of the realm of possibilities. Posada would be a big name for that team, and the Mets certainly have the money.

At that point, it will be hard for the Yanks to justify a counter-offer. Posada turns 37 next year and is coming off a career year. For a catcher, that’s incredibly unlikely. His career line of .277/.381/.479 makes him one of the game’s best catchers over the last decade and a perennially underrated Yankee, but the Yanks, DH or no DH, shouldn’t pony up $13-15 million for his services when he’s past the age of 40. If the Mets are willing to assume that risk, the Yanks may have to roll the dice on finding another catcher.

Hopefully, it won’t come to this. Hopefully, the Yankees will offer Jorge Posada a deal he likes and wants to sign. In my opinion, Posada will be back in the Bronx, but the Mets lurk. As much as we want to, we can’t ignore them on this, another day of the tumultuous Yankee offseason.

For $350 million, you too can own an A-Rod

by 32 Comments

Another day, another ridiculous Alex Rodriguez story.

Buster Olney, the official ESPN writer of River Ave. Blues, has a report that states something mind-boggling: A-Rod wasn’t going to even meet with Yankee officials if they didn’t start their contract extension offer at $350 million. The Yanks were initially willing to go up to about $250 million for the next eight years and fell $100 million short of Scott Boras’ insane demands just for a meeting.

Basically, Boras wanted the Yanks to pay A-Rod a whopping $43.75 million per year to play baseball for them. Does he really expect any team to approach that figure? And what’s he going to do when he has to settle for less than the $30 million a year the Yanks were basically offering as a starting point for negotiations? With the Yanks starting the conversations at $150 million for five years, I believe they would have been willing to go up to $175 million, and Boras wouldn’t even sit down to listen to these ridiculous figures.

For that money, A-Rod isn’t really a good fit anywhere.

Why I don’t sign Mike Lowell

by 30 Comments

Today, in his blog, Buster Olney echoes some of my thoughts from yesterday: If A-Rod fires Scott Boras and attempts to personally make amends with the Yankees, he could still be the Yankees’ third baseman come 2008. But since that’s about as likely as the Pirates winning a World Series next year, we best be movin’ on.

The biggest free agent third baseman out there is this year’s undeserved World Series MVP Mike Lowell, and his impending free agency is the subject of an article in today’s Boston Globe. The article, written by Captain Obvious, notes that Lowell, 34 by Opening Day and not getting younger, will have plenty of suitors, chief among them will be the Yankees.

But if I’m the Yankees, I pass on Mike Lowell with a vengeance. Who needs another overpaid aging player on the team? Plus, he won’t hit.

Wait, you may say. How can I claim that Mike Lowell won’t hit? This is after all the same Mike Lowell who hit .324/.378/.501 with 21 home runs and a team-leading 120 RBIs. Of course he can hit!

But that hitting is a product of Fenway Park. Take a look at this:
lowellspraychart.jpg

This is Mike Lowell’s Fenway Park hit chart. How did he manage to hit a whopping .373/.418/.575 with 73 RBIs at home? By spraying the crap out of the Green Monster. Nearly all of his Fenway Park extra-base hits seemed to be a product of that wall. Meanwhile, on the road, Lowell hit just .276/.339/.428, numbers much more in line with his career stats and 2006 numbers.

So in Yankee Stadium, Lowell just wouldn’t be the same force he was at home for the Red Sox this year, and there’s no reason to spend $12-14 million a year over four or five years to sign a player that just isn’t going to be much of an offensive force. Pass.

Quick hits from Cash-money

by 10 Comments

PeteAbe has a few good words from Brian Cashman. I’ll summarize.

  • This is the coaching staff. Those early reports – including one in this space – about Kevin Long’s departure were incorrect.
  • Joba Chamberlain will start unless Mariano Rivera leaves.
  • Related: The Yankees want Posada, Rivera and Pettitte in pinstripes in 2008.
  • Hideki Matsui is getting knee surgery; Derek Jeter is not.
  • The Yanks will decide in the next day whether or not they are picking up Bobby Abreu’s option. Signs are pointing to yes.

And, of course, the big news. The Yankees, Cashman said again, are utterly through the A-Rod. Cashman, Hank and Hal all tried to reach out to A-Rod, and the self-obsessed slugger didn’t return their calls. This snub along with the loss of the subsidy means the door is firmly shut there. I believe it.

On November 1, Cashman also claimed that Robinson Cano could play third base, that Wilson Betemit could play third base and that some combination of Shelley Duncan, Andy Phillips and Jason Giambi will man first base. As we seemingly wave good bye to Doug Mientkiewicz, you can bet a lot of money that the offseason probably will not end with those folks playing those positions come Opening Day.

The A-Rod game never stops

by 24 Comments

So two interesting A-Rod stories today, courtesy of the Daily News. Let’s just jump right in.

The first comes courtesy of John Harper who tries to spin some Scott Boras comments as to create the sense that Boras is blaming Mariano Rivera for A-Rod’s postseason vilification. What did Boras say? Nothing too flattering:

“The brilliant Mariano Rivera, probably the only flaw he’s made in a historic career over the postseason, if he got those three outs (in the ninth inning of Game 4), Alex would have been in the World Series and he would have been held to have a great postseason.”

In his column, Harper harps on the fact that Boras is trying to blame Rivera for A-Rod’s postseason failures. Up through game 4 of the ALCS, Rodriguez had been hitting the tar out of the ball. After game 4, he, along with every other Yankee, simply stopped hitting the ball. Had the series ended in four games, A-Rod would have probably taken home ALCS MVP honors.

Now, while I can understand what Harper is trying to do here, Scott Boras is simply stating something we all know. Had Rivera gotten those three outs in the 9th, the Yankees would have made it to the World Series against a fairly weak opponent, and A-Rod would have been one of the heroes. As much as I loathe myself for defending Boras, I don’t think he’s blaming Rivera for A-Rod’s struggles, as Harper thinks he is.

But let’s hold that thought.

Article number two comes to us courtesy of Mark Feinsand. Despite opting out and despite the Yanks’ vehement and very public stance that they are through with Mr. Rodriguez, A-Rod still claims he wants to return to the Yanks. The relevant part:

The Yankees have made it clear that they have no plans to bid on Rodriguez when free agency gets underway, but a source with knowledge of the situation said Rodriguez is hoping that the Bombers reconsider their stance.

“Alex wants the Yankees to be a part of this, because the opt-out was not done with the intention of saying goodbye to the Yankees,” said the source. “Alex wants to see what his market value is, but that doesn’t mean he necessarily wants to leave the Yankees.”

Now, I have two reactions to this. First, if A-Rod is serious about returning to the Yankees – and despite my disgust with A-Rod, I wouldn’t necessarily turn his .314/.422/.645/56/156 line away – if he’s serious about New York, he ought to tell his agent to shut up. In fact, if he’s 100 percent serious about New York, the easiest way for him to patch things up would be to simply fire Scott Boras. A-Rod could then say that he received bad advice, sign with the Yanks for a somewhat reasonable amount and let bygones be bygones. That’s not happening, but I can dream.

My second reaction is one of suspicion. Feinsand’s source, who sure does sound like Scott Boras, claims that A-Rod wants the Yankees to “be a part of this” (in old New York). Of course, A-Rod’s agent wants the Yanks – baseball’s richest team – to be a part of the bidding process; it helps drive up the price. Without the Yanks, Boras loses a lot of leverage.

So right now, A-Rod’s team sure is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, his agent is trying to blame the Yanks’ beloved closer. On the other, some unknown source is trying to claim A-Rod wants to stay.

No matter. Unless A-Rod’s willing to do some major penance for the way he has handled himself the last few weeks, to hell with him.

Elias releases 2007 player rankings

by 26 Comments

As the title implies, Elias released their annual player rankings (here’s the AL and NL), which determines whether a player is a Type-A or Type-B free agent. A team that signs a Type-A free agent forfeits their first round pick to the player’s old team as compensation; the former team also picks up a supplemental first rounder. Type-B’s only net the former team a supplemental first rounder. The first 15 picks of the draft are protected, so if a team owning one of those picks signs a Type-A free agent, they lose their second rounder instead. The draft order can be found on the right sidebar of BA’s draft page.

As far as Yankees are concerned, A-Rod, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte are all Type-A free agents while only The Viz is a Type B free agent. Roger Clemens, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Molina and Ron Villone do not rank, so the Yanks won’t gain a pick if they sign elsewhere. With any luck, A-Rod will sign with either the Brewers, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs or Mariners, which would give the Yanks a pick before the Tigers in the first round (those damn Tigers won’t think twice about grabbing a signability guy if/when he falls). 

Mo meets with Yanks

by 19 Comments

Mark Feinsand has the word: The Yankees met with Mariano Rivera and his agent today at Legends Field:

When asked if he was meeting with the Yankees, Rivera said, “Yeah. We have to see something.” Rivera declined further comment, telling reporters he would elaborate on his way out of the ballpark.

Rivera was one of five Yankees to file for free agency on Monday, the first day players were allowed to do so. The Yankees are expected to offer Rivera a three-year deal worth approximately $40 million.

No word on Mo’s comment after the meeting. But I think it would be tough for him to turn down that kind of deal.