Archive for Jorge Posada
A (somewhat) informed look at Posada vs. Molina
Posted by: | Comments
Last week I linked to a THT article looking at the difference in pitch selection between Jorge Posada and Jose Molina whenever CC Sabathia was on the mound last year, but I wanted to see if I could dig a little deeper into this debate. I don’t claim to be any sort of statistics whiz, but I definitely know my way around a slide rule. Frankly, I’m sort of embarrassed to be posting this because I’m not 100% confident in it’s accuracy, but whatever.
Over the last three years, opponents have hit .268-.343-.420 off Yankee pitchers when Posada was behind the plate (9,345 plate appearances), compared to .248-.309-.381 when Molina caught (5,285 plate appearances). There’s no denying that’s a pretty drastic difference, and I went back far enough – Molina’s entire time in pinstripes, actually – to ensure that sample size wasn’t an issue.
Using Dave Pinto’s Lineup Analysis Tool, we know that a lineup of nine hitters with a .343 OBP and a .420 SLG would score 4.896 runs per game, while a lineup of nine .309 OBP and .381 SLG batters would score 3.915 runs per game. We’re going to normalize everything over 120 games in this post, because that’s how about how many games you’d expect your number one catcher to play in a given season. So, over 120 games, opponents would have scored 587.52 runs when Posada was catching, and 469.80 runs when Molina was behind the plate. Big difference.
American League pitchers have allowed 2,310 runs per 486 games over the last three seasons, or 570.37 over 120 games. That means Posada’s “game calling” was worth 17.15 runs below average during that time, while Molina’s was worth 100.57 runs above average. I put game calling in quotes because it’s a vague term and there are a million variables involved. In the end, it’s up to the pitcher to execute, but for our purposes we’ll hoist all of the blame/praise onto the catcher.
Okay, so right now we’re saying that Posada’s game calling is worth -17.15 runs above average while Molina’s is worth +100.57. Let’s come up with a fancy acronym for this … how about GCRAA, or Game Calling Runs Above Average? Works for me.
At Beyond The Box Score today, Dan Turkenkopf posted last year’s catcher blocking percentages, which tells you how many runs a catcher saved or cost his team with his ability to hande balls in the dirt. You can click on the link for a more detailed explanation, but Posada’s and Molina’s blocking ability was worth 4.66 and 4.30 runs below average, respectively. Those totals are already normalized to 120 games, so that’s nice and easy.
I don’t think anyone would have argued that Molina’s defense and ability to handle pitchers was better than Posada’s, however that’s just part of the equation. During the last three seasons, FanGraphs says that Posada’s offense has been worth 62.5 runs above average in 1,222 plate apperances while Molina’s has been worth a whopping 26.2 runs below average in 523 plate appearances. Normalizing both to 500 plate appearances (approximately 120 games worth), Posada’s offense is worth 25.57 runs above average, Molina’s 25.05 runs below average.
The last piece of our catching debate pie is baserunning. Since FanGraphs considers stolen bases and caught stealings in their wOBA calculation, which is in turn used to determine wRAA, we don’t need to worry about them. Instead, we can use the same EqBRR-EqSBR calculation I presented here and here to determine how each player’s non-stolen base baserunning effected the team. Over that same three year time period, Posada’s baserunning cost the team a staggering 16.81 runs while Molina’s cost them just 0.13. Such are the benefits of hitting at the bottom of the lineup I suppose, no one behind you is ripping extra base hits requiring more than station to station baseball. Normalizing both to 500 plate appearances, we get 6.88 runs below average for Posada and 0.12 runs below average for Molina.
Catcher defense is practically impossible to quantify, so I’m not even going to bother trying to figure it out. Let’s just assume it’s included in our GCRAA and Turkenkopf’s block pecentage stats, which give Molina a humongous advantage anyway. Alright, let’s sum it all up:
| Posada | Molina | |
| GCRAA | -17.15 | +100.57 |
| Block Percentage |
-4.66 | -4.30 |
| wRAA | +25.57 | -25.05 |
| EqBRR – EqSBR | -6.88 | -0.12 |
| Total | -3.12 | +71.10 |
So based on everything we did above, Jorge Posada playing full time is essentially a league average player because his inability to handle pitchers and awful baserunning negates his offense. Molina, meanwhile, would have resulted in an extra 71 runs assuming equal playing time, or basically seven wins. It’s a big difference, basically the difference between Derek Jeter and Ramiro Pena last season.
Obviously, you shouldn’t consider this to be any sort of definitive proof that Molina’s ability to work with pitchers is so superior to Posada’s that it would have been worth playing him every day despite the difference in their bats. Remember, I didn’t adjust the GCRAA for league are anything like that, I just hammered out an old school back of the envelope calculation, if you know what I mean. There is certainly evidence that pitchers get better results with Molina behind the dish, I never denied that, but I’m still not convinced it’s enough to make up for the difference in offense despite everything above. I just can’t see Molina being a friggin’ seven win player because of his game calling; there has to be a way to improve GCRAA.
Maybe one of these days someone a whole lot smarter than me will take a stab at this. Mo knows we’ll deal with it again next year with Frankie Cervelli.
Photo Credit: Elise Amendola, AP
The difference between Posada and Molina’s game calling
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the most notable and certainly most annoying storylines from last season was Jorge Posada’s apparent inability to do anything right behind the plate. He’s slow, can’t frame pitches, can’t block a ball in the dirt, he goes out to the mound too many times, can’t do anything right, especially call a game. Just look at the stats:
Yankee pitchers with Posada catching: .264-.347-.426 against, 18.4 K%
Yankee pitchers with anyone else catching: .234-.298-.385 against, 22.5 K%
See? That right there tells you everything you need to know about Posada’s game calling ability. [/sarcasm]
Actually, yeah there’s definitely a difference between how certain catchers call games, but you can’t tell that based on just simple observation, or Joe Girardi’s idiotic decision to let Jose Molina catch certain pitchers (he sure helped A.J. Burnett in Game 5 of both the ALCS and World Series, right?). We now have the tools to dig deeper into this phenomenon, and Max Marchi at THT did just that.
Using PitchFX, Marchi broke down the how Posada and Molina called games for CC Sabathia last season, noting that the biggest difference is that Posada tended to rely on the big guy’s four-seam fastball while Molina favored the sinking two-seam variety. Here’s the breakdown so you can see for yourself:
That’s the percentage of total pitches, so Posada called for 49% fastballs, 33% sliders, and 18% sinkers against lefty batters. Of course, there are many more factors in play here than just what the catcher calls for. Sabathia could shake them off, and certainly players evolve during the course of the season and may change up their patterns. Posada also caught CC’s first four outings, which were part of his customary slow start, and that probably skewed the results.
In general, a catcher’s ability to work with pitchers is over-stated. Saying a guy handles pitchers well is usually something reserved for catchers who can’t do anything else even decently, like Molina. What makes Posada so great is his bat at the most premium of positions, and moving him to designated hitter to let someone like Molina catch full time makes the team worse. A league average DH with Posada catching is greater than Posada at DH and a defensive specialist like Molina catching. It takes an awful lot of defense to make up for the complete lack of offense.
At 38-years-old, Posada’s not getting any better defensively, and chances are his offense will take a hit next season. However, the best team the Yankees can field features him starting behind the dish, even if it means sacrificing an extra 90 OPS points to the opposition. The difference in offense – 325 OPS pt advantage over Molina, for example – makes up for it.
By the Decade: Yankee catchers
Posted by: | CommentsWith the baseball portion of the ’00s behind us, it’s time to reflect upon the Yankees by decade. On the whole, it was a very successful decade by the Yanks. The team won two World Series and four AL titles. They finished in first all but two years and bookended the 2000s with thrilling championship runs. Over the next few weeks, I’ll be exploring how the team looked by position, and today we start with the catchers.
| Player | G | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Posada | 1186 | 4119 | 1177 | 274 | 6 | 199 | 774 | 648 | 967 | 55 | 0 | 31 | 128 | .286 | .387 | .500 |
| Jose Molina | 173 | 460 | 105 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 27 | 89 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 16 | .228 | .273 | .317 |
| J. Flaherty | 117 | 355 | 78 | 22 | 0 | 12 | 39 | 14 | 70 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 15 | .220 | .247 | .383 |
| F. Cervelli | 36 | 98 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | .286 | .286 | .357 |
| Kelly Stinnett | 34 | 78 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .279 | .308 |
| I. Rodriguez | 33 | 92 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .217 | .258 | .315 |
| Chris Turner | 31 | 87 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | .241 | .313 | .310 |
| Wil Nieves | 30 | 70 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .143 | .160 | .200 |
| Chad Moeller | 28 | 84 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .238 | .323 | .333 |
| Sal Fasano | 28 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .146 | .214 | .292 |
| Todd Greene | 27 | 91 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .209 | .242 | .275 |
| Chris Widger | 21 | 64 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .297 | .338 | .375 |
| A. Castillo | 15 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .135 | .146 | .216 |
| Joe Oliver | 12 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .361 |
| Kevin Cash | 10 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .231 | .250 | .308 |
| D. Navarro | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 |
| M. Hernandez | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .500 | .333 |
| B. Estalella | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 |
| Jim Leyritz | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .667 |
| C. Stewart | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Totals | 1797 | 5767 | 1546 | 360 | 7 | 226 | 929 | 729 | 1306 | 80 | 39 | 43 | 183 | .268 | .354 | .450 |
On the whole, as the above table shows, the 2000s were the decade of Jorge. The borderline Hall of Famer caught two-thirds1 of the Yankees’ games, and he did so with spectacular results. Say what you will about Posada’s current defense, but the man can hit. As a catcher, he put up a .286/.387/.500 and fell just one dinger shy of 200 home runs. The only knock against Jorge are the double plays. He hit into 128 of them over ten years.
After Jorge though, the Yankees see a precipitous drop in backstop production. On the whole, Yankee catchers hit .268/.354/.450, and everyone not named Jorge were pretty bad as a group. Yankee back-up backstops managed just 27 home runs and a combined offensive line of .224/.263/.326 in 1648 at bats.
It’s amazing to look through that list and try to remember some of the names. Chris Stewart made one forgettable appearance for the Yanks when both Jorge Posada and Jose Molina were injured. I do not remember Michel Hernandez’s five games in pinstripes. Wil Nieves was spectacularly awful, and even Ivan Rodriguez was but a shell of his former self in 2008.
For the Yankees, Posada’s success atop this list underscores the importance of having a solid catcher. For two reasons, the team hasn’t been able to find a decent back-up. First, no one wants to play behind someone as good as Jorge. Second, good catchers are very, very hard to find. That’s the driving reason behind my belief that the Yankees shouldn’t move Jesus Montero from behind the plate quite yet, and it’s a driving reason why Baseball America’s Top 10 Yankee prospects list features four catchers. In this day and age, developing a defensively solid catcher who can hit guarantees some modicum of success.
In August of the first year of the decade of the 2010s, Jorge Posada will turn 39. He may stick it out behind the plate, seeing reduced playing time of course, for the next few seasons, but when the next decade ends, he likely won’t be the team’s leader behind the plate. From our vantage point at the end of the decade, we can truly appreciate just how good Posada has been, and when we compare him to everyone else, well, it’s not even close.
Looking at his numbers, I can unequivocally say that Posada is the league’s catcher of the ’00s too. Perhaps Mike Piazza turned in some better offense numbers early on and perhaps Joe Mauer beats him these days. But no one else has sustained this level of play for as long as Jorge did. For the Yankees, behind the plate, it truly has been the decade of Posada.
1 Due to availability of the data and some late-inning replacement situations, the total numbers of games played by position will not add up to the 1620 games the Yankees played from 2000-2009. Numbers are from both Baseball Reference and the Baseball Musings Day-by-Day Database. (Return)
When the Yanks almost traded Jorge Posada
Posted by: | CommentsSo here’s a fun little bit of Yankee history for you: In December 1995, the Yankees tried to trade Jorge Posada and could not. When the Yankees were negotiated with the Mariners over Tino Martinez, Jorge Posada was originally in the deal. The Mariners, Jack Curry reported on Dec. 5, 1995, did not want to give up Jeff Nelson and Tino Martinez for Sterling Hitchcock and Jorge Posada. The Yanks, meanwhile, were hesitant to include Russ Davis in the deal. Eventually, Hitchcock and Davis, but not Jorge, went west. I’d say the Yanks made a good choice.
Three weeks later, though, George Steinbrenner personally tried to off-load Posada, and this time, the Yanks got lucky. As Murray Chass reported on Dec. 27, 1995, the Boss who desperately wanted David Wells called then-Reds GM Jim Bowden to offer him Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera for the larger-than-life lefty. Bowden decided he preferred Curtis Goodwin. A bad move by the Reds turned into a great one for the Yanks. (Hat tip to Bryan Hoch.)
What to expect from Jorge Posada in 2010
Posted by: | Comments
Catchers tend not to age well. Baseball players typically start to decline physically in their early- to mid-thirties, but for catchers, who spend seven months a year squatting, it can come on earlier and more dramatically. For the past few years, Jorge Posada has defied the typical aging patterns of a catcher. He’s had two of his four best seasons, in terms of OPS, in the past three years, including his best overall two years ago, at age 35. That earned him a four-year, $52.4 million contract in the winter of 2007.
That year in the middle, though, was not good. He spent most of the year on the disabled list with shoulder issues which led to season ending surgery. When he was on the field he wasn’t terrible, hitting .268/.364/.411 in 195 plate appearances, but that’s not the production we’re used to seeing from Posada. At least not over the two years before that. It certainly left his 2009 status up in the air. Reports were that his shoulder would be ready for Spring Training, but there were no guarantees that it would hold up, or that Posada would return to his old form.
Other than a minor injury in May, Posada had a great 2009. His OPS, as mentioned, was the fourth highest of his career. This had a lot to do with power — Jorge’s .522 slugging percentage was well above his carer average of .480. Best of all, his shoulder held up just fine, as he threw out 31 of 80 base stealers, his highest percentage since 2006. But does this recovery signal that Posada will follow it with another good season in 2010?
This brings us back to the part about catchers not aging well. Posada will 39 next August (though it will be his age-38 season). Not many catchers last that long, and it’s not a great bet that Jorge somehow replicates Carlton Fisk’s late-career run. There’s certainly concern that Posada will drop off, perhaps significantly, in 2010. What some of us want to know is, just how likely is a decline from Jorge?
In The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010, Bill James writes about the topic of player performance from year. He wants to know how likely a player is to have a better year than his previous one. This is based on factors like the player’s OPS in the past year vs. his career OPS, his age, batting average on balls in play, and other factors. He explains it all in the article. You can download the PDF here, or just check it out in the embed below.
Not only does James think Posada has a poor change of repeating his 2009 numbers, but he thinks that Posada is the least likely player in the league to replicate his 2009. I’m not here to debate the merits of James’s methodology. I happen to think, though, that Jorge isn’t very likely at all to perform nearly as well as 2009. I don’t base my concern on a rigorous system like Mr. James’s, though his is an interesting study. I do, however, find concern in many of the areas James studies.
First, age is certainly a concern. Jorge is old for an effective baseball player, and very old for a catcher. Age catches up to different players in different ways and at different times. Jorge didn’t move behind the plate until he was already in the minors, so that gives him some advantage, but even still he’s been catching for many, many years now. Maybe the late move helped him stave off the typical catcher aging curve, but that won’t last forever. Next year might not be the year, but eventually it will be. I’m certainly concerned that next year will be it.
Second, much of Jorge’s 2009 production was based on power. His Iso was .238, the highest mark of his career (he was, though, at .237 in 2003), and his 17.9 percent home run to fly ball percentage was his highest in six seasons. Power is a skill that tends to decline with age. It’s highly unlikely that Posada will match his 2009 Iso mark in 2010, because he’s only been that high once before in his career — and also, in case it’s not clear, he’s 38 years old and will turn 39 during next season.
Third, Jorge’s walk to strikeout ratio plummeted in 2009. He walked 48 times to 101 strikeouts, which was his worst ratio since 2001. As James notes, some players have good years while striking out a lot and not walking much, but they tend to decline in subsequent years. Posada also experienced a high BABIP in 2009, .335, which was not quite on the level of his .389 mark in 2007, but still well above any of his seasons since 2002. This is a further concern for Posada, again, because of his age.
No one wants to see Jorge Posada’s production decline. He’s been an important part of the Yankees for over a decade, and to lose his bat at the catcher’s position would be a tough blow for the lineup. I really hope that Jorge has another year in him that he can fight off the normal aging curve for a catcher. Given his age and parts of his performance in 2009, however, I’m not that confident. Baseball’s a funny game, though. Maybe Jorge goes on and OPSs .829 at age 42 like Fisk. It’s more likely, though, that he declines before that. I’m just a little concerned that it will start next year.
The cited Bill James article comes from The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010, which you can buy here. Yeah, it’s a little cheaper on Amazon, but Amazon screws authors. Might as well support the guys who created it.
Photo credit: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
What Went Right: Injury Bouncebacks
Posted by: | CommentsOver the next week or so, we’ll again break down what went wrong and what went right for the 2009 Yankees. The series this year will be much more enjoyable than the last.
At this time last year, the Yankees roster was anything but set. They had a huge offer out to CC Sabathia, and planned to pursue at least one other starting pitcher. That would help shore up the rotation, but clearly there were no guarantees. On top of that, the Yankees powerhouse offense went out with a whimper in 2008. Not only did the Yankees need another bat to enhance the offense, but they’d need contributions from players who underperformed in 2008.
With the acquisition of Nick Swisher, the Yankees had four players who underperformed in 2008. Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui missed much of the season with injuries, and Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher had poor seasons at the plate. Even with the potential addition of Mark Teixeira, the Yankees had a lot to worry about. Without contributions from at least two of those four, the Yankees offense wouldn’t have been nearly as formidable.
Two of four didn’t seem like asking a lot. Two of the players in question were proven veterans coming off injuries, and other two were players in their primes who each had a bad season. But as it turned out, all four bounced back. That turned out to be a key to the 2009 season. It meant the Yankees had above average contributors in eight out of nine lineup slots, with the final filled by an average player. How many other teams can boast of such a powerhouse?
Here’s how the Yankees in question performed in 2008, and how they bounced back in 2009. All stats are from FanGraphs, at risk of Jeremy Greenhouse calling me out.
| Player | 08 wOBA | 08 WAR | 09 wOBA | 09 WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Posada | .340 | 0.8 | .378 | 4.0 |
| Hideki Matsui | .348 | 0.8 | .378 | 2.4 |
| Nick Swisher | .325 | 1.0 | .375 | 3.5 |
| Robinson Cano | .307 | 0.5 | .370 | 4.4 |
Both Swisher and Cano both returned to their pre-2008 forms, which brought a huge boost to the offense. As you can see from the table, these were not insignificant improvements. Not only did they increase rate production over 2008, but they stayed healthy and therefore added that value over the course of the season. WAR favors Cano over Swisher by almost a full run, but that’s mostly because of the positional adjustment. Both had phenomenal seasons, especially compared to 2008.
Posada and Matsui contributed in two ways. First, they improved their net production over 2008. Even when healthy, Posada and Matsui weren’t quite where they had been in years past. Their wOBA numbers weren’t bad in 2008, but the Yankees have seen them perform much better. There was certainly fear that age had caught up with them, but they answered that charge by coming back to produce in 2009. That leads to the second part of their improvement, remaining healthy. Even with their production in 2008, they didn’t help the team as much because they were hurt for much of the season. In 2008 both stayed healthy enough to add a ton of value to the team, as evidenced by their WAR figures.
All four players certainly had the potential to bounce back after poor 2008 campaigns. Cano and Swisher were guys in their primes who had bad years, and Matsui and Posada were two veterans who faced injury struggles. During the 2008-2009 off-season, it would have been wildly optimistic to predict that all four would bounce back. The Yankees got lucky in that regard. All four contributed to the 103-win season, which set up the team’s run through the playoffs. The 2009 Yankees might have made the playoffs if only two of those four bounced back, but they wouldn’t have been nearly as dominant. While the improved pitching staff was a big part of the story this season, we shouldn’t overlook Posada, Matsui, Cano, and Swisher. Their contribution was a big part of making this season as special as it was.
Jose Molina and the Game 5 DH debate
Posted by: | CommentsWith A.J. Burnett taking the mound later tonight to try to secure a Fall Classic face-off against the Phillies, his personal caddy, Jose Molina, will be behind the plate. Although the offense suffers, I’ve come to terms with this decision. After all, Burnett is sporting a 2.19 playoff ERA in 12.1 innings and has struck out 10. If he truly does pitch better to Jose Molina, then the Yanks should, by all means, make Burnett comfortable in a potential clinching game.
Were the Burnett start ever so simple. As with every other A.J. Burnett outing, this one is not without controversy. Yesterday, Jorge Posada went 1 for 3 and was on base two other times while Hideki Matsui walked away from a 10-1 win as the other Yankee without a hit. For this short series, Posada is hitting .308/.471/.615 to Matsui’s perfectly respectable if powerless .286/.412/.357. Over the two games in Anaheim, Matsui has not looked particularly comfortable at the dish, but I’d hate to lose either player’s bat in Game 5.
So what are the Yanks to do? Would they DH Matsui behind Alex Rodriguez and prepare Posada for a mid-game pinch-hit appearance? Would they DH Posada, use Matsui to pinch hit and then either burn the DH spot or go with Francisco Cervelli behind the plate for the final few frames?
Marc Carig posed these question to Joe Girardi yesterday, and Girardi was nocommittal. “That’s something we’ll talk about,” the Yanks’ manager said. Posada issued a similar statement: “I don’t know yet. They haven’t said anything yet.”
The Star-Ledger reporter offered up this take on the situation:
Posada has hammered Angels starter John Lackey in the past. In 32 lifetime plate appearances against the Angels right-hander, Posada is 12-for-29 (.414) with three walks, a homer, and three RBI…Matsui hasn’t been bad against Lackey either. Though his .286 average in 32 plate appearance against Lackey pales in comparison, Matsui has two doubles, a homer and seven RBI against Lackey.
Based on some very limited numbers that generally don’t mean too much, Posada should start. He’s the hotter bat right now, and he has more success off of Lackey than Hideki Matsui does. Of course, the easy answer is to start Posada behind the plate. Although Jose Molina said he doesn’t know if he’ll be catching Burnett, I’m not going to mess with a good thing this late into October.
And so we await the lineup card. I predict Posada batting behind A-Rod. Jorge right now gives them the best chance to win, and with the Angels so close to elimination, the Yanks are going to apply as much pressure as they can later tonight.
Dissent in the ranks over Molina-gate
Posted by: | CommentsFor 12 years, the stories about Derek Jeter and Joe Torre told a tale of deference. Jeter, a rookie during Torre’s first year in the Bronx, had a special bond with his manager. He would call him Mr. Torre and rarely, if ever, questioned his decisions in public.
While Torre was managing the Yanks, Jeter played with a back-up catcher named Joe Girardi. Jeter and Girardi captured three rings together, but for Derek, Girardi’s presence on the team and his amount of playing time must have raised an eyebrow or two. After all, the Yankees had Derek’s very good friend Jorge Posada, a far superior offensive catcher to Joe Girardi. In the end, of course, it mattered little, as the Yanks plowed through the opposition during the latter half of the 1990s.
Today, Joe Girardi is Derek’s manager, and for the first time in a while, Jeter is publicly questioning the man who holds the Yanks’ reins. When asked about Girardi’s decision to start Jose Molina in A.J. Burnett’s starts, Jeter had a diplomatically loaded answer. As Jim Baumbach first reported yesterday, Jeter called the situation strange. “It will be kind of awkward not having Jorge in the lineup,” he said.
For Derek, the Yanks’ loyal solider and all around good guy at handling the media, that statement amounts to sheer mutiny. As Baumbach and others have pointed out, Jeter’s statement is also a bit hyperbolic. Posada wasn’t the only catcher during the Yanks’ World Series years, and as recently as 2005, Joe Torre used John Flaherty to catch the ornery Randy Johnson. The Unit lasted just three innings in a disastrous Game 3 start, and Jorge quickly entered the game in the 4th.
I have to wonder then if Joe Girardi is risking his respect by making an unpopular and questionable decision. Does Derek Jeter think Girardi is off his rocker? What about the other younger players who look to Jeter for leadership? Ken Davidoff claims all was calm at Yankee camp yesterday and offers us some translations of the players’ sound bites. Derek, he claims, is just trying to keep Jorge happy while not offending his manager, and Jorge has accepted it.
In a way, then, this move is certainly an experiment. If Burnett comes out and dominates the Twins and the Yanks handily win as they did on Wednesday, Joe Girardi will look good — or at least he won’t be subject to rampant first- and second-guessing. But if Burnett struggles through a start, those around the club — those whose respect Girardi needs — may wonder about the decision. Ken Davidoff doesn’t expect Molina-gate to “blow up these Yankees.” Here’s to hoping.
Molina-Gate: A.J. defends Posada
Posted by: | CommentsAfter six months of baseball day after day after day, this drawn-out schedule for the post-season seems interminable. The Yanks played last night for the first time since Sunday and do not play again for another 27 hours. The waiting, as Tom Petty said, is the hardest part.
With all of the off-days, we have plenty of time to discuss Joe Girardi’s peculiar decision to start Jose Molina in the ALDS when A.J. Burnett takes the mound. Molina will be behind the dish tomorrow night for Game 2 and unless Girardi’s plan is highly illogical, should be back there again for a potential Game 5. Most assumed this decision was inspired by A.J. Burnett who seemed to be more comfortable on the mound with Jose Molina catching. Based on Burnett’s demonstrative attitude during a terrible Fenway outing in August, this wasn’t an unfounded conclusion.
Burnett, though, threw a wrench into this thinking. Prior to Game 1, he told reporters that he did not ask for Molina to catch. Although Burnett appears to be criticizing Girardi, he continually stressed his support for Posada and did so again this afternoon. “It’s a ‘me’ thing,” Burnett said today when asked about his rhythm with Molina. The pitcher, after all, mostly is in control of his own performance.
Burnett’s responses today followed questions concerning Molina and Posada yesterday. The Game 2 starter tried to distance himself from having a preferred catcher. “It was the manager’s decision,” he said yesterday. “I had no part in it. I’ve thrown good to both. My good games, I’m right. My bad games, it’s not the catcher, it’s me. When I’m good, it doesn’t matter which one is behind the plate.”
During that press conference, he spoke about that Aug. 22 outing. Although Burnett was clearly yelling “Why did you throw that?” on the mound, that frustration, the right-hander said, was directed at himself and not his catcher. “It’s making me out to be a bad guy again,” Burnett said, “and it comes down to Boston when I said, ‘Why? Why? Why?’ Over my career, I’ve done that a handful of times. But if you ask people that I played with, I don’t show guys up. I even went to Joe in the past and said, ‘Hey, give me either one.’ It’s his decision.
Burnett, an 11-year veteran, will be making his post-season debut tomorrow night. Although he was a member of the 2003 Marlins, he missed the playoffs — and much of the season, in fact — with an arm injury. He is looking forward to this start, he says, but the Yankees could do without the circus. “I’m just looking forward to getting out there and getting that first pitch out of the way,” he said.
This afternoon, Girardi again spoke about this decision. “I don’t want to get ahead,” he said when asked if Burnett would pitch to Molina through the playoffs. “We talk about Molina catching him tomorrow. He’s been catching him his last four or five starts. I’m not going to get too far ahead.”
This line of thinking makes nearly as little sense as Girardi’s initial decision. If the Yanks aren’t committing to pairing up Burnett and Molina, why would he do it for the second game of a five-game set? “We’re taking things one day at a time,” he said. Girardi also refused to rule out DHing Posada over Hideki Matsui tomorrow.
Meanwhile, on the other side of this debate is Jorge Posada. The embattled catcher did not have his best game early on last night. He and CC couldn’t get on the same page, and one of the two passed balls Jorge allowed resulted in the Twins’ second and final run of the game. Chris at iYankees though makes a very good point: While CC did not have his best fastball, Jorge still coaxed a very good game out of him. Early-inning defensive struggles aside, Posada had a fine night.
But still we discuss, and everyone has theories. Jonah Keri calls Joe Girardi a sentimentalist in so many words. The Yanks’ skipper was a “good-field, little-hit” catcher and earned his fair share of Yankee playoff ABs. Girardi sees himself in Jose Molina and will give the Yanks’ all-field, no-hit catcher a chance. Even in Girardi’s worst offensive season with the Yanks, his 60 OPS+ was still decidedly better than Molina’s 49 mark this year.
Perhaps though it doesn’t matter at all. Tangotiger ran the simulations and found little difference: “With Posada (batting 7th), Yankees score 6.17, allow 4.18 rpg and win 72.15% of the time, in 100,000 games. With Molina (batting 9th), they score 5.85, allow 4.05 rpg and win 71.33% of the time.”
And still we wait for the game to start tomorrow evening.
