River Avenue Blues

Luis Severino finishes ninth in the 2018 AL Cy Young voting

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(Getty)

Earlier tonight, MLB and the BBWAA announced Rays southpaw Blake Snell is the 2018 AL Cy Young award winner. The Yankees hit him pretty well this year. Nine runs and four homers in 13.1 innings across three starts. Justin Verlander finished a close second in the voting and trade target Corey Kluber finished third.

Luis Severino received one fifth place vote and finished ninth in the voting in his second full big league season. He finished third behind Kluber and Chris Sale last year. Severino is the first Yankee to get Cy Young votes in back-to-back years since (who else?) CC Sabathia, who had three straight top four finishes in the voting from 2009-11. The full voting results are at the BBWAA’s site.

Severino of course had an uneven season this year, pitching incredibly well in the first half and pretty terribly in the second half. The end result was 3.39 ERA (2.95 FIP) with 220 strikeouts in 191.1 innings, which is obviously quite good. Only 26 AL pitchers threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title this year. Severino’s ranks:

  • ERA: 3.39 (ninth)
  • ERA+: 129 (seventh)
  • FIP: 2.95 (fifth, tied with Snell)
  • Strikeout Rate: 28.2% (seventh)
  • K/BB Ratio: 4.78 (fourth)
  • WAR: +4.8 (eighth)

Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres finished second and third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, respectively, and Aaron Boone finished fifth in the AL Manager of the Year race. The MVPs will be announced tomorrow. The Yankees do not have a finalist but I would expect some of their players to get down ballot votes, most notably Aaron Judge.

2019 Draft: Draft Order Tracker is now live

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(@MLB)

Just a heads up, our 2019 Draft Order Tracker page is now live. You can access it at any time through the Resources pulldown menu at the top of the site. The page will be updated throughout the offseason as draft picks are gained and lost through free agent compensation.

The draft order is the reverse order of the standings and the Yankees had the third best record in baseball this past season. But, because the Braves and Diamondbacks received compensation picks for failing to sign their 2018 first rounders, the Yankees pick 30th instead of 28th. Those two compensation picks pushed them back two slots. So it goes.

The new draft pick compensation rules are tied to team payroll, and because they stayed under the luxury tax threshold this year, the Yankees will surrender their second highest draft pick plus $500,000 in international bonus money each time they sign a qualified free agent this winter. They are locked into that 30th pick. First rounders are protected now.

MLB has not yet announced the 14 Competitive Balance Lottery picks. Those are 14 extra draft picks (eight after the first round and six after the second round) given to small market teams to make things fair, I guess. Those 14 picks should be announced soon. Also, those picks are tradeable! They are the only tradeable MLB draft picks. The Yankees have never traded for one of those picks.

Prospect Profile: Anthony Seigler

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(Getty)

Anthony Seigler | C

Background
Seigler, 19, grew up outside Atlanta in Cartersville, Georgia, and his father named him after former big leaguer and longtime friend Tony Phillips. As a senior at Cartersville High School last spring, Seigler hit .421 with 13 home runs while posting a 1.90 ERA with 29 strikeouts and six walks in 25.2 innings.

Prior to the 2018 draft Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked Seigler as the 25th best prospect in the class. Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him 41st and MLB.com ranked him 46th, though mock drafts consistently put Seigler in the back half of the first round. The Yankees selected Seigler with their first round pick, the 23rd overall selection. He was at the MLB Network studios for the draft broadcast.

Pretty cool. Seigler was committed to the University of Florida but there were never questions about his desire to turn pro. “There’s no doubt in my mind that I’m definitely going to sign with the Yankees. This is a no-brainer for me,” he said the night of the draft. Five days later, the Yankees signed him to a straight slot $2,815,900 bonus.

Pro Debut
Seigler played 12 games with the rookie Gulf Coast League Yankees and another 12 games with the rookie Pulaski Yankees after signing. He hit .266/.379/.342 (108 wRC+) with one home run and more walks (14) than strikeouts (12) in his 24 games. A hamstring issue sidelined him for two weeks in July and his season ended a week early after he took a foul tip to the face mask and suffered a concussion. Seigler was healthy enough to be a full participant in Instructional League after the season.

Scouting Report
Widely considered the most defensively advanced high school catcher in the 2018 draft class, Seigler is build solidly at 6-foot-0 and 200 lbs., and he’s a very good athlete who should have no trouble moving to third base or the outfield should the catching thing not work out. That said, Seigler is considered a no-doubt long-term catcher because he receives well — he caught all those big velocity low level arms the Yankees have with no trouble in his pro debut — moves well behind the plate, and has a good arm.

In fact, Seigler has two good arms. He’s an ambidextrous thrower a la Pat Venditte. Seigler pitched with both arms as an amateur. From the right side, he sits in the low-90s and features a slider. He’s a bit more crafty from the left side, working in the mid-to-upper-80s and lulling hitters to sleep with a changeup. The Yankees intend to keep Seigler behind the plate. It wouldn’t be fair to call him a novelty act on the mound — Seigler would’ve been a two-way player with the Gators — but he wasn’t much of a pro prospect as a pitcher. Catcher was always his long-term home.

Seigler is a true switch-hitter with more power from the left side — or, more accurately, he hits the ball in the air more often from the right side — but a line drive stroke with good strike zone discipline from both sides. He is expected to hit for average and get on base down the road while racking up doubles more than dingers. Then again, power is hard to project these days, so who knows. Weird home run things happen with the MLB ball. Here’s some video (here’s video of him switch-pitching):

Seigler is more of a “he does everything well but nothing exceptionally” guy rather than “wow look at that standout tool” guy. He’s well-rounded and he projects to remain at the hardest position to fill in the sport. Seigler also draws rave reviews for his makeup and work ethic — “(He’s) consistently referred to as one of the toughest players in the prep class,” said Baseball America’s pre-draft scouting report — and he even asked for a Spanish-speaking roommate this summer so he could work on learning the language. Pretty cool.

“The thing that attracts you to Seigler is that he has the tools to catch, and he’s a switch-hitter, which makes him a unique commodity,” said scouting director Damon Oppenheimer on draft night. “He’s showing power from both sides of the plate, has really great instincts for baseball, a plus arm and runs well for a catcher. On top of that, he’s proven to be versatile, with his ability to play other positions. Seigler’s got top-of-the-line makeup. We’re very happy about him.”

2019 Outlook
Catchers, especially high school catchers, tend to be moved slowly early in their careers because there’s so much to learn defensively. Over the last few years nearly every high school catcher drafted in the first three rounds started his first full professional season in Extended Spring Training before joining a short season league in June. Seigler might be one of the exceptions. He’s advanced enough offensively and defensively that the Yankees could send him right to Low-A Charleston to begin next season. We’ll see. Either way, ExST or Charleston, I don’t expect Seigler to play above Low-A in 2019. High school catchers generally aren’t the fastest risers, you know?

My Take
Switch-hitting catchers are my jam and I love Seigler. He is pretty much everything the modern front office looks for in a player. He’s athletic, he has two-way ability, high-end baseball smarts, and he’s tough as nails. I don’t know whether the Yankees would do it, but a team like the Dodgers or Rays might have Seigler play some outfield in addition to catcher, just to increase his versatility and make him more flexible in the three-man bench era.

The Yankees are very good at developing catchers (Francisco Cervelli, Kyle Higashioka, John Ryan Murphy, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, etc.) so Seigler is in good hands. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to work out. But I feel pretty good about the chances of a kid with this skill set under this development staff turning into a big leaguer. With Justus Sheffield poised to graduate to the big leagues next season, Seigler is the early favorite to be the Yankees’ top prospect at this time next year.

The Other Pitcher Acquired at the Deadline [2018 Season Review]

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(Elsa/Getty)

The Yankees acquisition of Lance Lynn was initially met with a bit of puzzlement. The issue wasn’t the trade itself, as few were upset about the loss of Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo; rather, folks were concerned about the perceived downgrade from Adam Warren (dealt that same day for international bonus money), as well as Lynn’s generally poor performance through the trade deadline. I counted myself among the people focused on the latter:

There was also a question of approach with Lynn, who had thrown more fastballs than any pitcher this side of Bartolo Colon prior to the trade. Put that all together and the Yankees had acquired a pitcher with a 5.10 ERA (4.72 FIP) and hideous 5.5 BB/9 in 102.1 IP, who also didn’t quite jibe with the team’s approach. How’d that work out?

Mostly well, I would say. Though, his tenure with the Yankees does break down into four distinct stages.

Strong Early Returns

Lynn made his pinstriped debut on August 1, coming in to relieve a struggling Sonny Gray in the third inning. He promptly allowed an inherited run to score, but he settled down in short order, and gave the rest of the Yankees bullpen some desperately-needed rest. He ended up pitching 4.1 otherwise scoreless innings, allowing 5 hits and no walks, striking out 5.

The 31-year-old shifted to the rotation after that, and made Brian Cashman look like a genius in his first two turns. He tossed 7.1 scoreless innings against the White Sox (along with 9 strikeouts), and followed that up with a 5 IP, 1 run effort against the Rangers (with 8 strikeouts). And he did that without changing his fastball-heavy approach:

In his last start with the Twins, he threw over 90% fastballs (as in his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter); in his first three times out for the Yankees, he averaged 89.5% fastballs. This is who he is, and the coaching staff clearly had no interest in changing it – and why would they, when it’s working?

And then it stopped working.

Four Bad Starts

Okay, maybe it’s unfair to say that it stopped working entirely. Four starts is only four starts, after all. But when a pitcher that had a 5.10 ERA through 20 starts looks good for three games and then posts a 9.16 ERA in those four starts, it might be cause for concern.

Though, to be fair to Lynn, his underlying numbers did suggest that there was a ton of bad luck here. In 18.2 IP, Lynn racked up 22 strikeouts against 6 walks, allowed just one home run, and had a solid 47.7 GB%. And he allowed a league-average amount of hard contact in three of the four starts, so it isn’t as though the opposing teams were hitting rockets all over the field, either. He nevertheless had a .469 BABIP in those starts, which led to 31 hits and a bunch of runs. Such is the life of a pitcher.

Four Good Outings

Lynn sorted himself out down the stretch, though, and closed out the season strong. He made four more appearances (three starts), pitching to the following line: 19.0 IP, 15 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 49.1 GB%, 2.37 ERA, 2.69 FIP.

All told, Lynn was solid with the Yankees. He posted a 4.14 ERA (2.17 FIP) in 54.1 IP, with strong strikeout (10.1 K/9), walk (2.3 BB/9), and groundball (47.4%) rates. And with Luke Voit tearing the cover off of the ball, the loss of Austin didn’t mean much of anything. It was a good deal for the Yankees that played a very real role in them winning homefield advantage for the Wild Card game.

So what about that fourth stage?

The ALDS

Lynn did his part to keep the Yankees in game one, pitching two scoreless innings of relief. That was huge. His next outing … not so much.

It’s difficult to lay blame at the feet of anyone in particular for the 16-1 drubbing in game three (though most fans blame Aaron Boone), but Lynn played as big a role as any pitcher (to say the least). He came in to relieve Luis Severino with the bases loaded and none out, and promptly walked in a run, and then allowed a bases-clearing double. A groundout and a single later, and Lynn was back on the bench; Chad Green allowed both of his inherited runners to score, as well.

It’s not worth reliving this any further but, for many – myself included – this is the lasting memory of Lynn as a Yankee.

What’s Next?

Lynn is a free agent and, as was the case last off-season, I expect him to sign yet another one-year ‘prove it’ sort of contract. The free agent climate may be more favorable to players this year, but he was also much better in 2017 (3.43 ERA in 186.1 IP) than he was in 2018 (4.77 ERA in 156.2 IP).

Will that contract be with the Yankees? I don’t see it, but it wouldn’t quite shock me, either. Do I want Lynn back in pinstripes? No – but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Scouting the Trade Market: Corey Kluber

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(Sean M. Haffey/Getty)

You know baseball is kinda screwed up when, despite record high league revenues, a reigning three-time division champ is said to be willing to move veterans to get their payroll in order. Earlier this month Buster Olney reported the Indians will “listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter as they face the sort of difficult choices that small-market teams must address.” Cleveland’s decision-makers did not deny that report.

“We will be creative in looking at ways to improve our team,” president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said to Ryan Lewis at the GM Meetings last week. “That’s one way in which we could do that. It’s not the only way. But it’s certainly one of the avenues we could pursue is to trade from an area of depth to address another area of our team.”

Among players making real money, the belief is everyone except Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is available. That means the Indians are open to discussing members of their vaunted rotation, including Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, who the Yankees reportedly discussed with Cleveland last week. The GM Meetings are a good opportunity to meet face-to-face and Brian Cashman did exactly that with Antonetti & Co. last week.

Does Kluber make sense for the Yankees? Of course. He’s on the very short list of the best pitchers in MLB and tonight he could win his third Cy Young. It’ll probably go to Blake Snell, but Kluber is a finalist, which means he’s going to finish in the top three of the Cy Young voting for the fourth time in the last five years. He’s really good. Let’s take a look at the apparently available Corey Kluber, shall we?

Background

Most aces you can see coming a mile away. They’re usually former first round picks or high-profile international signings, and top prospects in the minors. Kluber was none of those things. He grew up near Dallas, played his college ball at Stetson, and was a fourth round pick by the Padres in 2007. San Diego sent him to the Indians in a three-team trade at the 2010 deadline. The deal:

  • Indians get: Corey Kluber
  • Cardinals get: Jake Westbrook, Nick Greenwood
  • Padres get: Ryan Ludwick

Kluber made the jump from interesting minor league arm to big league ace with the Indians. He never appeared on a top 100 prospects list and never ranked higher than 26th on his team’s top 30 list in Baseball America’s annual Prospect Handbook. Crazy, eh? Kluber, 32, owns a career 3.09 ERA (2.96 FIP) in 1,306 big league innings and has won two Cy Youngs (2014, 2017).

Performance

It is awfully good. Since 2014, the year he became Corey freakin’ Kluber, Kluber leads all pitchers with +31.0 fWAR and is second with +32.5 bWAR. (Max Scherzer leads with +34.8 bWAR). Again, this dude is on the very short list of the best pitchers in the game.

Normally when looking at a player’s performance, I go back three years. In Kluber’s case, I’m going back five, only because I appreciate the consistency of his greatness. His ERA jumps around a bit because that’s baseball. Everything else holds fairly steady. Check it out:

IP ERA FIP K% BB% GB% HR/9 RHB wOBA LHB wOBA
2014 235.2 2.44 2.35 28.3 5.4 48.0 0.53 .246 .304
2015 222 3.49 2.97 27.7 5.1 42.4 0.89 .238 .322
2016 215 3.14 3.26 26.4 6.6 44.5 0.92 .266 .284
2017 203.2 2.25 2.50 34.1 4.6 44.5 0.93 .230 .251
2018 215 2.89 3.12 26.4 4.0 44.4 1.05 .250 .290

Lordy. Last season was an outlier in terms of strikeouts. Otherwise Kluber’s run a strikeout rate in the 26.4% to 28.3% range the last few years, a low walk rate, a ground ball rate right at the league average, and he’s given up one homer every nine innings or so. He chews up righties and merely dominates lefties. Year in and year out, it’s the same Corey Kluber, and that Corey Kluber is very good.

That consistency extends to his quality-of-contact numbers as well. We only have four years worth of Statcast data at this point, and from 2015-18, Kluber has posted expected wOBAs of .282, .281, .254, and .276. Again, that 2017 season is a bit of an outlier. That was likely Kluber’s career year. His other years are still outstanding. Tons of strikeouts, few walks, and a lot of favorable contact. Patrick Corbin had a big increase in strikeouts and a big decline in home runs this year. James Paxton’s home run rate increased. Kluber, meanwhile, was the same guy he’s always been.

Current Stuff

I’m not sure anything Kluber throws is straight. He more or less shelved his four-seamer this year and committed to the sinker as his primary fastball. Kluber also throws a wicked slider that looks like it belongs in a video game …

… a slightly less wicked cutter, and the occasional changeup. He throws the sinker and cutter roughly 30% of the time each and the slider about 22% of the time, so they are his main pitches. Kluber throws all three to righties and lefties. Only lefties get the changeup and the four-seamer is basically a show-me pitch to batters on both sides of the plate. I wouldn’t necessarily call it electric stuff because he’s not throwing in the upper-90s, but it sure is nasty stuff though. Here’s some video:

As you might suspect, Kluber runs a very high whiffs-per-swing rate on his slider (38.0%) and a solid ground ball rate on his sinker (52.7%). That has been the case consistently over the years. The biggest difference between 2017 Kluber and all-other-years Kluber is the cutter. Batters missed with 37.4% (!) of their swings against the cutter last year. In all other years, it’s right around 30.0%. (29.1% in 2018.) That 30.0% is really good! But 37.4% is bonkers.

Given his age (33 in April) and his workload (1,136.2 innings since 2014, postseason included, the most in baseball), it is no surprise Kluber is starting to lose some velocity. It has been a gradual decline the last few years, not a sudden drop. From 2014-18, his average sinker velocity has gone from 94.2 mph to 93.8 mph to 93.4 mph to 92.9 mph to 92.6 mph. Like I said, gradual. Here’s the graph:

Velocity loss is part of life. It happens to pretty much every pitcher. Kluber has remained (extremely) effective while losing velocity and I think he has the tools and the pitching know-how to continue to be effective going forward. There’s going to come a point where he’s not an ace anymore, but the stuff is there to suggest Kluber still has a few years to go as an above-average starter. Maybe I’m dead wrong. It’s been known to happen. There aren’t many pitchers in the game I would take going into their mid-30s over Kluber though.

Injury History

You don’t throw over 1,100 innings in a five-year span by getting hurt a bunch. Kluber’s been on the disabled list twice in his career. He missed a month with a finger sprain in 2013 and a month with a back strain in 2017. Kluber’s only arm injury came way back in high school. He suffered a stress fracture in his elbow as a senior and they had to insert two screws in there to stabilize things. He’s had no elbow (or shoulder) problems since.

I do think it’s worth noting that Kluber has seemed to wear down late in the season the last few years. He made three starts on short rest during the 2016 postseason and clearly wasn’t himself in his two 2017 ALDS starts or his lone 2018 ALDS start. Going forward, maybe it’s best to treat him as a 180-inning guy rather than a 210-inning guy? If possible, that is. Him team might need to push him down the stretch to get to the postseason. If possible though, scaling back on the soon-to-be 33-year-old who’s thrown over 1,100 innings the last five years seems worthwhile.

Contract Status

The Indians signed Kluber to a bargain five-year contract worth only $38.5M (!) guaranteed back in April 2015. He only had two years of service time at the time, but still, the dude just won the Cy Young and couldn’t get $10M annually? Crazy. The 2019 season is the final guaranteed year on that contract, though there are club options for 2020 and 2021. Here’s the breakdown:

Actual Salary Luxury Tax Hit
2019 $17M $11.7M†
2020 $17.5M option ($1M buyout) $16.5M
2021 $18M option ($1M buyout) $18M*

* The $1M buyout isn’t subtracted from the luxury tax hit in 2021 because it is not guaranteed money. Kluber doesn’t get the $1M buyout in 2021 if he’s bought out in 2020. Only the $1M buyout in 2020 is guaranteed and thus lumped in with the first five years of the contract for luxury tax purposes.

Originally, the 2020 and 2021 options were worth $13.5M and $14M, respectively, but Kluber has already hit all his Cy Young voting based escalators and increased the option year salaries. I’ve seen a few sites incorrectly list the options as $13.5M and $14M. That’s wrong. Kluber hit all his escalators and they’re worth $17.5M and $18M now. Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless.

† Five years and $38.5M equals a $7.7M average annual value and thus a $7.7M luxury tax hit. However, Kluber maxed out his $4M in escalators for 2019, so that $4M in bonuses gets tacked on to his 2019 luxury tax number. That’s how $7.7M becomes $11.7M.

I should also note that while Kluber does not have a no-trade clause, he does get a $1M bonus each times he’s traded. Sometimes teams split the assignment bonus — the Yankees and Padres split Chase Headley’s $1M bonus last winter — but the Yankees may have to pay the $1M, which would get applied to their 2019 luxury tax hit. Bonuses are luxury taxable. That bargain $11.7M luxury tax hit could become a slightly less bargainy $12.7M after the trade.

Anyway, that is a steal of a contract, both in terms of actual salary and luxury tax hit. It is effectively a series of three one-year contracts that can max out at $53.5M when you include the trade bonus. Kluber would get double that had he been a free agent this offseason. Maybe triple. The luxury tax hits are low (especially in 2019), and, if there’s a catastrophic injury at some point in the next two years, you can walk away and be off the hook financially.

What’s It Going To Cost?

Oh geez. (Jason Miller/Getty)

How often does an ace-caliber starter with three years of control get traded? Not often at all. We do have close to a perfect trade match here, however: Chris Sale. Like Kluber, Sale was traded after five Cy Young caliber seasons and with three years of control, and, also like Kluber, it was one guaranteed year plus two club option years. Here’s what the Red Sox gave up to acquire Sale:

  • Yoan Moncada (global top three prospect)
  • Michael Kopech (global top 30 prospect)
  • Luis Alexander Basabe (organizational top ten prospect)
  • Victor Diaz (organizational fringe top 30 prospect)

Moncada hasn’t lived up to the hype since the trade but we can’t look at it that way. Hindsight doesn’t work. At the time of the trade, Moncada was regarded as a future star and arguably the top prospect in the game. It would’ve been akin to trading a perfectly healthy (i.e. no Tommy John surgery) Gleyber Torres prior to this past season. That’s what the Red Sox had to give up to get Sale. Arguably the top prospect in the game (plus more).

The Sale trade provides framework for a potential Kluber trade, but there are some key differences between the two. One, Sale was four years younger at the time of his trade than Kluber is now. That’s significant. Two, Sale’s contract was cheaper. He’ll be paid $39.5M during his three years (2017-19) with Boston. Kluber is owed $53.5M from 2019-21. A $14M difference spread across three years isn’t much, but it’s not nothing either.

And three, the Indians are going to try to win next season (I think). The AL Central is still theirs for the taking. It’s not crazy to think they could trade Kluber, who is inarguably one of the top pitchers in the game, and still be division favorites going into next season. The AL Central is that bad. The Sale trade, meanwhile, kicked off a rebuild for the White Sox. They could take prospects in return. The Indians presumably want players who can help right away.

From where I sit, I don’t see why the Indians would trade Kluber to the Yankees without getting Torres or Miguel Andujar in return. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball and he’s on an affordable contract. Why trade that guy for prospects? You need to get a stud young big leaguer as the package headliner, especially if you’re trying to win next year. Who knows what the Indians want though. Point is, it’ll hurt to get Kluber. Guys like him don’t come cheap.

Does He Make Sense For The Yankees?

Absolutely. It’s easy to get a little squeamish about his age and workload, but, at the end of the day, Kluber remains an elite pitcher, and his contract is not onerous. His contract situation is about as favorable as it gets, in fact. And even if his performance slips a bit, he’s starting from such a high baseline that he could still be an above-average starter. The Yankees need rotation help and, in terms of expected production in 2019 and beyond, I’d take Kluber over every free agent starter as well as Paxton, the other big name trade candidate.

That all said, there is an acquisition cost to consider. Is it better to give up prospects and young big leaguers to get Kluber, or simply spend money (plus a draft pick and international bonus money) to get Corbin? Does the prospect cost make Paxton a better bang for the buck? That all has to be considered. Generally speaking, when prospects are traded for an ace, the team that gets the ace rarely regrets it (see: Sale, Chris). If all it takes is prospects, the Yankees should do it immediately. If it takes Gleyber or Andujar, well, it’s still worth serious consideration, but the decision isn’t quite as obvious.

Aaron Boone finishes fifth in AL Manager of the Year voting

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(Mike Stobe/Getty)

In his first season as a manager or coach at any level, Aaron Boone finished fifth in the AL Manager of the Year voting. MLB and the BBWAA announced earlier tonight that A’s skipper Bob Melvin has been named the 2018 AL Manager of the Year. Not a surprise given their improvement from 75-87 last year to 97-65 this year. Red Sox manager Alex Cora finished second in the voting and Rays skipper Kevin Cash was third.

For all intents and purposes, the Manager of the Year award is the “manager of the team that most exceeded expectations” award, and that doesn’t fit Boone or the Yankees at all. The Yankees came into the season as World Series contenders and they were very good, going 100-62 and finishing with the third best record in baseball. Generally speaking, they met expectations, and meeting expectations doesn’t win this award.

Boone received received two third place votes and finished behind Melvin, Cora, Cash, and Astros manager A.J. Hinch. This is the tenth straight season the Yankees’ manager received Manager of the Year votes. Joe Girardi did not receive any votes in 2008, his first season with the team, but he received votes every year from 2009-17. Girardi won the NL award with the 2006 Marlins and topped out with a third place finish in 2009 with the Yankees.

The full voting results are available at the BBWAA’s site. As a reminder, these are regular season awards only. Ballots are cast before the postseason. No one asked me, but I would’ve voted for Cash. Cash got his team to buy into the “opener” strategy and it was a big reason they won 90 games. The opener machinations are one of the few tangible pieces of evidence we have of a manager making a difference on the field. Shrug.

Didi Gregorius and five possible contract scenarios following Tommy John surgery

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(Getty)

The 2018-19 offseason got off on the wrong foot for the Yankees. During the annual end-of-season press conferences, the team announced Didi Gregorius tore his ulnar collateral ligament and needed Tommy John surgery. He had the surgery almost a month ago now, and it will sideline him early next season. It’s unclear when Gregorius will return. May? June? September? 2020? No one really knows.

Had the injury happened a year or two earlier, the Yankees would’ve signed the arbitration-eligible Gregorius to a one-year contract and moved forward with him like nothing ever happened. That isn’t the case now. Didi will be a free agent next offseason and he’s projected to make $12.4M in 2019. That’s a lot of money to pay a rehabbing player who could leave next winter. It could end up being money for nothing, or close to nothing.

“We’ll hopefully keep him for a long time,” said Brian Cashman to Ken Davidoff last week. “I’m not focused on it right now. I’m a big fan of the player. I don’t think Tommy John will be a career-ending issue for him, like it typically isn’t. It’s a problem that we all have to deal with. How we deal with it remains to be seen. But he’s wired the right way. So he’s the type of person you like to surround yourself with, not run from.”

The Yankees operate on a budget because every team operates on a budget. Their current budget seems to be smaller than it has been in the past — “Is it a definite line in the sand? I wouldn’t say that’s the case. I’d say it’s a preference,” said Cashman to Billy Witz last week when asked about staying under the $206M luxury tax threshold — so every dollar counts. We all love Didi, but paying him $12.4M to rehab may not be the best idea.

The non-tender deadline is a little more than two weeks away and I don’t see the Yankees non-tendering Gregorius. That would allow other teams to jump in the mix, and, even though he’ll spend at least part of next season rehabbing, I get the sense there would be a bidding war for a 28-year-old two-way shortstop, and the Yankees would end up paying even more to keep Didi than they would by simply tendering him. A non-tender is possible, but unlikely.

Barring a trade, which seems incredibly unlikely for many reasons, I see five possible outcomes for Gregorius’ contract situation this offseason. Here are the five outcomes listed in order of what I think is most likely to least likely:

  1. One-year contract at his projected salary (or thereabouts).
  2. Two-year contract with a reduced 2019 salary.
  3. Long-term contract that keeps Didi in pinstripes another four or five years.
  4. An arbitration hearing, which results in a one-year contract.
  5. One-year contract at a reduced salary, meaning smaller than his 2018 salary ($8.25M).

Starting at the bottom, what reason does Gregorius have to sign a one-year deal at a reduced salary? He doesn’t owe the Yankees anything. Gregorius and his representatives can tell the Yankees that, if they want a reduced salary, either non-tender him and see what the market says, or file salary figures and try to get the arbitration panel to side with you. No player has ever had his salary reduced through arbitration. The best case for the Yankees is a smaller raise than expected. The arbitration panel bases their decision on past accomplishments, not future projections.

A one-year contract at the projected salary is the simplest and most straightforward solution, and also the least cost effective for the Yankees. They get no long-term control and no discount. They’d pay Gregorius what the arbitration system says he’s worth, monitor his rehab, and potentially open long-term contract talks at some point next year, which is exactly what they would’ve done had he been healthy. This is the path of least resistance. Lots of difficult salary arbitration situations are resolved with a one-year deal that kicks the can down the road.

The two multi-year contract scenarios have the most appeal, both for the Yankees and Gregorius, I imagine. The Yankees get control of a talented player at a hard-to-fill position beyond his rehab year in 2019. Gregorius gets himself a nice little guaranteed payday right after suffering a potentially career-altering injury. A two-year deal gives the Yankees that extra year of control but also allows Gregorius to test free agency fairly soon. That could be a good compromise. (It’s what I did in my offseason plan.)

As for a long-term extension that keeps Gregorius in pinstripes well into his 30s, the Yankees have been pretty stingy with multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players — they’ve signed only two such players (Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano) to extensions in the last decade — and giving one to a guy coming off a major injury would represent quite a shift in team policy. If you’re going to do that though, meaning sign an injured player long-term, isn’t Didi the kinda guy you do it with? He’s pretty rad.

The downside is obvious though. Gregorius did just suffer a major injury that required surgery, and while we all expect him to recover well, there’s always a chance he doesn’t. What if there are setbacks? Mets infielder T.J. Rivera had Tommy John surgery last September and wasn’t able to make it back this year. What if Gregorius loses some skill? Perhaps he loses so much arm strength that second base, not shortstop, is his long-term home. At this point, a long-term contract carries much more risk for the Yankees than it does Gregorius.

Didi said he’s open to a long-term contract earlier this year and I imagine that is still the case. I don’t think blowing out his elbow has him thinking about going year-to-year, you know? Get paid while you can. As crass as it sounds, the injury could give the Yankees a bit of a discount, especially in the short-term. There’s a fine line between a discount and taking advantage of Gregorius, and potentially upsetting the relationship. It’s not the way anyone wanted it to go down, but, right now, a multi-year marriage seems very possible this offseason.