Adam Ottavino Archives - Page 3 of 3

Scouting the Free Agent Market: Familia and Ottavino

December 10, 2018 by Domenic Lanza

The Yankees are looking for two relievers to replace Zach Britton and David Robertson, and the market it flush with potentially appealing options. I recently wrote about Kelvin Herrera and Andrew Miller, both of whom are coming off of injury-abbreviated campaigns; today I’m going to discuss a couple of relievers coming off of more productive seasons in Jeurys Familia and Adam Ottavino.

Jeurys Familia

2018 Stats – 3.13 ERA, 27.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 46.3 GB%, 3.13 ERA, 2.65 FIP

Familia spent the first six and a half years of his big-league career as a Met, serving as the team’s closer from 2015 through the end of his New York tenure; he was dealt to the A’s at this past trade deadline, where he served as a high-leverage fireman instead of a traditional closer. And he excelled in both roles, maintaining above-average strikeout and groundball rates, and an average walk rate. None of his peripherals are particularly jaw-dropping, but there isn’t a glaring weakness in his profile, either.

The 29-year-old is essentially a sinker/slider pitcher, with those offerings representing around 80% of his overall pitches. He’ll also mix in a four-seamer and the occasional splitter (which is devastating, but has never represented more than 8% of his pitches in a year), depending on the handedness of the batter and what he’s feeling. And Familia throws everything hard:

Familia’s velocity has remained fairly steady from year-to-year. He’s lost about 1 MPH from his peak fastball velocity – but it was over the course of four years, so it’s not a terribly worrisome sign. And his sinker and slider are his go-to offerings anyway, and both of those have actually ticked up. We know that velocity can disappear rather suddenly, but there aren’t really any warning signs thus far.

It is worth noting that Familia has dealt with two injuries in his career, both of which required surgery. The first was a bone spur removed from his right elbow back in 2013, which kept him out for a few months. And the second was surgery to remove an arterial blood clot from his right shoulder in 2017, which sidelined him from mid-May through the end of August. Neither is necessarily predictive of future injury, but having surgery on your throwing elbow and throwing shoulder cannot be overlooked.

And, being as diplomatic as possible, there are potential character issues off the field, as well. Familia was suspended for the first 15 games of the 2017 season due to domestic violence accusations, and had to undergo at least twelve 90-minute counseling sessions. I do not want to editorialize something of this nature, so I will leave it at that.

So what will Familia cost? MLBTR predicts a 3-year, $33 MM deal, and FanGraphs similarly went with 3-years, $30 MM. Having been dealt mid-season, there are no draft pick considerations. He has that closer shine, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up with a deal in that range.

At that sort of price, I don’t think that Familia is a great fit for the Yankees. I’m all for the team spending big this off-season to capitalize on their window, but I wouldn’t get in a bidding war for someone that another team views as a closer. The Yankees are ostensibly looking for their third and fourth relievers, behind Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances, which is somewhere between a luxury and a necessity; I see it as enough of the former that I wouldn’t go beyond two years for Familia. And his off the field issues make me a bit hesitant, as well.

Adam Ottavino

2018 Stats – 77.2 IP, 36.3 K%, 11.7 BB%, 43.0 GB%, 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP

At first blush, those are some straight-up droolworthy numbers. A strikeout rate 14 full percentage points above league-average? A 2.43 ERA and 2.74 FIP in Coors?! That’s kind of bonkers, isn’t it? Even with the walks, you cannot help but be impressed with Ottavino.

A bit more digging, however, doesn’t leave you as enthusiastic about his merits. Here’s his 2017 line – 53.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 16.1 BB%, 37.2 GB%, 5.06 ERA, 5.16 FIP. That’s just about as bad as one can get, even with the comfortably above-average strikeout rate. In short, Ottavino was as bad in 2017 as he was awesome in 2018.

I have seen 2017 explained away, in part, by Ottavino’s Tommy John Surgery. However, that surgery came in 2015, and Ottavino returned in the Summer of 2016, showing little to no rust. If anything, you’d expect him to be even better in 2017 – not to post by far his worst season since his cup of coffee debut way back in 2010. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to have an uncommonly bad year; especially relievers, who are notoriously fickle. But it can’t be hand-waved, either.

There are signs that his 2018 wasn’t just random fluctuation, though. Ottavino essentially shelved his four-seamer this year, replacing it with sinkers and cutters:

And, like Familia, his high-end velocity has remained relatively steady, with the decline coming slowly:

And all of that was on purpose, as Ottavino explained to Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs. The Brooklyn native worked out at a vacant commercial property in Manhattan throughout that off-season, utilizing Driveline tech to help him hone his craft. Put that all together and you have something of a career year. The big question, of course, is whether that’s maintainable.

Ottavino, unlike many Rockies pitchers, doesn’t show an appreciable home-road split on the mound. He was actually better in Coors in 2013 and 2018, and performed similarly in 2017. Escaping that park will undoubtedly be a plus, but there’s not necessarily a ton of hidden value there.

The biggest concern with Ottavino, at least to me, is his age. He turned 33 in November, and both MLBTR and FanGraphs project a 3-year, $30 MM deal (which MLBTR actually sees him signing with the Yankees). I can somewhat buy 2017 being an aberration, and I am on-board with him rebuilding himself in the 2017-18 off-season – but he’s at an age where regression can come abruptly and viciously.

Ottavino is an obvious fit for the Yankees, as a guy that racks-up strikeouts and lives in the area (and apparently loves it). I love his determination to rebuild himself after a horrific season, as well, and it’s a great sign that it worked so well. I’m hesitant about a longer deal at his age – but I prefer him to Familia. And, again, at two years I’m definitely in.

Hot Stove Rumors: Realmuto, Corbin, Miller, Greinke, Gray

December 3, 2018 by Mike

We’re now into December, traditionally the busiest month of the offseason, and next week the 2018 Winter Meetings begin in Las Vegas. I suspect the Yankees will be among the most active teams at the Winter Meetings. If not transactions-wise, then rumors-wise. Here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Cashman shoots down Realmuto rumor

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees were among the teams with interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto but “resisted offering other top pieces in a package with (Gary) Sanchez.” Brian Cashman shot that rumor down. “False. Completely false. I saw that somebody had written that we had offered for Realmuto. That is completely false,” said Brian Cashman to George King over the weekend. “(Sanchez) is not for sale,” Cashman added during a YES Network interview (video link), which, to be fair, is what he’d say even if he were open to trading Sanchez.

When I saw the Realmuto rumor my first thought was the Marlins leaked it in an effort to drive up the price for other teams. It doesn’t really pass the sniff test otherwise. I mean, Sanchez and more for Realmuto? Selling low on Gary to buy high on (the very good) Realmuto is a hard pass for me. Sanchez is two years younger, under control two years longer, and almost certainly the more talented player even if he didn’t show it this past season. Their numbers through their age 25 seasons do not compare. Juicy rumor. Fortunately it seems to be nothing more than that.

Corbin meets with Yankees during recruiting trip

Last week Patrick Corbin went on a three-city recruiting trip through Philadelphia, Washington, and New York. The Yankees did the “photoshopped picture on the scoreboard” thing (here’s a photo) and, according to Ken Davidoff, Corbin toured Yankee Stadium and met with Cashman, Aaron Boone, Larry Rothschild, Mike Harkey, and traveling analyst Zac Fieroh. He also ran into CC Sabathia, who was at the park for an offseason workout.

“I wouldn’t call it a recruiting effort as much as an educational effort, where (he’s) getting a chance to see the facilities from the home side (after being here as a visitor),” said Cashman during a recent YES Network interview (video link). “… He’ll get access to all aspects of what we’re about. The brand, our efforts, the people, with Aaron Boone and our coaches and myself and hopefully he’ll walk away getting a better feel for who we are.”

For what it’s worth, Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Nationals are “seriously focused” on Corbin and are believed to be willing to offer six years to get him. It seems Yu Darvish’s six-year, $126M contract with the Cubs is the benchmark here. Of course, a six-year deal is likely to include an opt-out along the way, which changes the calculus a bit. Well, either way, Corbin visited the Yankees last week, and reports indicate he’s looking to sign soon. I hereby dub this situation: “developing.”

Yankees “badly” want another starter this week

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees “badly” want another starter before the Winter Meetings. That jibes with what we heard yesterday. Jayson Stark says the Yankees haven’t ruled out adding two “high-profile” starters — Andy Martino again names Corbin and J.A. Happ as the likely targets — though that seems like a stretch. This strikes me as one of those general “we’re open to the idea” offseason rumors. Adding two starters would be kinda cool though.

As for the report that the Yankees “badly” want a starter before the Winter Meetings, I totally buy it. First and foremost, they want to get the rotation locked down, the sooner the better. Secondly, once the rotation is set, the Yankees will know exactly what resources they have available (trade chips, payroll space) to pursue bullpen help and a Didi Gregorius replacement. The longer the search for a starter drags out, the more unpredictable it gets. (Wanting a starter this week presumably takes the Yankees out of the running for Yusei Kikuchi, whose 30-day posting period opens tomorrow and closes in early-January.)

Yankees have Miller on their radar

The Yankees have Andrew Miller on their radar, according to George King. King also reiterates the team’s interest in Adam Ottavino. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees requested Miller’s medical information, which is a) standard operation procedure (teams request the medical information of lots of players each winter), and b) not a mere formality given his knee trouble the last two years and shoulder trouble this year. Those medicals will be heavily scrutinized.

Miller, 33, pitched to a 4.24 ERA (3.51 FIP) with 29.2% strikeouts and 10.4% walks in 34 innings around the injuries this past season. Those numbers are far worse than what he did as a full-time reliever from 2014-17. The injuries stink but are not necessarily a dealbreaker. With good health, it’s not all that difficult to envision Miller turning in one or two more dominant seasons before things slip for good. The question is how much are the Yankees willing to bet on that? They supposedly want two relievers and a reunion with Miller could be in the cards.

Yankees on Greinke’s no-trade list

According to Zach Buchanan (subs. req’d), the Yankees are on Zack Greinke’s 15-team no-trade list. Like most no-trade lists, Greinke’s includes big market teams that would theoretically be willing to compensate him for waiving his no-trade cause (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies) and rebuilding teams he presumably doesn’t want to play for (Orioles, Tigers, Reds). For what it’s worth, Buchanan says there’s “no way” the Diamondbacks would attach Greinke to Paul Goldschmidt in an effort to unload his contract a la Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.

Greinke, 35, posted a 3.21 ERA (3.71 FIP) with 23.7% strikeouts and 5.1% walks in 207.2 innings this past season — it was the tenth time in the last eleven seasons he threw at least 170 innings and the eighth time he threw at least 200 innings — so he’s still crazy good. He’s also owed $104.5M the next three years. It should noted the Yankees have steered clear of Greinke whenever he’s become available via trade or free agency. They’ve made it pretty clear they don’t think he’d mix well in New York. Oh well. Even if they were open to a trade, Greinke would have to approve it.

Eleven teams in on Gray

There are eleven teams in on Sonny Gray, reports Davidoff. Among them are the Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins. “I’ve had a lot of interesting dialogue, whether it’s for prospects, whether it’s for Major League our need for their need, whether it’s part of a complicated larger situation that involves prospects and Major Leaguers going both ways. So I think we’ve had a little bit of experience with all aspects of it,” said Cashman.

I honestly have no preference here. Normally I lean toward MLB ready players in return — the Yankees are a win now team, after all — but, if the best offer for Gray is a Single-A prospect(s), so be it. One way or the other, the inevitable Gray trade will help the Yankees at the MLB level. Either they’ll trade him for a big leaguer or they’ll trade him for a prospect(s) and unload his salary, which can then be used on a free agent. I’m not gonna lie, I’m kinda surprised Sonny is still a Yankee. I thought he’d be gone by now.

Hot Stove Notes: Corbin, Kluber, Eovaldi, Ottavino, Segura

November 21, 2018 by Mike

The offseason is barely more than three weeks old and already the Yankees have re-signed Brett Gardner, re-signed CC Sabathia, and traded for James Paxton. They still need another starter, a Didi Gregorius replacement, and some bullpen depth. Still lots to do. “I can’t predict what’s going to happen as we move forward, other than the fact that we need to fill some needs,” said Brian Cashman to Pete Caldera following the Paxton trade. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees remain interested in Corbin, Happ, Kluber

Even after the Paxton trade, the Yankees remain interested in free agents Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ, reports Jon Morosi. Also, Andy Martino adds the Yankees are still in touch with the Indians about Corey Kluber, but the asking price is quite high. I can’t see a Kluber (or Carlos Carrasco) deal going down now that Justus Sheffield has been traded. Not unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar, plus other prospects.

As for Corbin and Happ, they’re both good to great rotation options at different ends of the projected contract spectrum. Happ turned 36 last month and is looking at a short-term deal at $10M to $15M annually, I imagine. Corbin is only 29 and is close to a lock to get nine figures. I prefer Corbin despite the price tag. He’s younger than Happ and I think he’ll be the better pitcher in 2019 and beyond. Happ’s not an unreasonable option on a short-term deal though. I prefer Corbin but either would work.

Yankees not among earlier suitors for Eovaldi

According to Nick Cafardo, the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest in free agent righty Nathan Eovaldi early this offseason. Cafardo listed nine teams with interest, including contenders like the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox. This past season, his first since his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi had a 3.81 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 22.2% strikeouts and 4.4% walks in 111 total innings.

It is inevitable that Eovaldi, 29 in February, will get overrated this offseason after what he did to the Yankees this year (six runs in 23.1 innings) and his stellar postseason (1.61 ERA and 2.71 FIP). It’s already happening, really. But man, I am a hard pass here. For starters, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery guy whose entire game is built on throwing the ball really freaking hard. And secondly, I am extremely skeptical of the “this enigmatic pitcher has figured it out!” demographic. Nate’s a good dude and I hope he gets paid. Just not by the Yankees.

Yankees have discussed Kikuchi

From the no duh department: The Yankees have internally discussed Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who will be posted this offseason, reports David Lennon. “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings. We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year,” said Hal Steinbrenner at the owners meetings last week. Not a ringing endorsement, but whatever.

Kikuchi, 27, is one of the top starters in Japan. He threw 163.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA and 153 strikeouts this past season. Here’s a scouting report. Kikuchi is represented by Scott Boras and, from what I understand, he’s already come to the United States and taken a physical so teams can review his medicals in advance. That’s standard practice. That way the two sides don’t have to squeeze in a physical before the signing deadline. Kikuchi has not yet been posted. It can’t happen any later than December 5th. I don’t know much about him beyond what I’ve shared here so I don’t have a strong opinion about the guy. The Yankees do need another starter though. We’ll see.

Yankees interested in Ottavino

The Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, Cashman said to Joel Sherman, and Sherman says they have interest in free agent Adam Ottavino. The two relievers thing makes sense with David Robertson and Zach Britton becoming free agents. Robertson is representing himself and, for what it’s worth, he told Bryan Hoch he’s been in contact with the Yankees and would like to pitch close to his Rhode Island home. Agenting 101: When negotiating with the Yankees, indicate you’re willing to sign with the Red Sox. Robertson’s a quick learner.

As for the Ottavino, the Brooklyn native had a ridiculous season with the Rockies, throwing 77.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 36.3% strikeouts. A few too many walks (11.7%) though. He turns 33 tomorrow. Ottavino has had some injury issues and it’s been a while since he was that good in a full season, but he has done it before. He’d be a fine addition to the bullpen. My preferred bullpen target this offseason is Robertson. Just re-sign him already. It makes too much sense. The Yankees want two relievers though, so maybe they’ll find room in the budget for Robertson and Ottavino. Would be cool. Not holding my breath though.

Yankees, Mariners talked Segura

Now this is fun. According to Morosi, the Yankees asked about Jean Segura during Paxton trade talks with the Mariners. Obviously this is in response to Gregorius’ injury. Seattle is tearing things down and Segura, who is still somehow only 28, is one of their top trade chips as a quality two-way shortstop on an affordable contract (owed $60.4M from 2019-22). Ultimately, the Yankees decided to move forward with the Paxton only trade. I guess the asking price for Segura was too high.

This past season Segura hit .304/.341/.415 (111 wRC+) with ten homers and 20 steals, and, over the last three years, he’s put up a .308/.353/.449 (117 wRC+) line in almost 2,000 plate appearances. Between his offense and defense, he’s a reliable +4 WAR player right now. The Yankees could’ve put Segura at short until Gregorius returned, then used those two on the middle infield, Torres at third, and Andujar at first base or in left field. Or maybe the Yankees would let Gregorius walk as a free agent and use Segura as their everyday shortstop. Perhaps the two sides will revisit trade talks later in the offseason.