Alex Gordon Archives - River Avenue Blues

4/18 to 4/21 Series Preview: Kansas City Royals

April 18, 2019 by Steven Tydings

After two games with the Red Sox, the Yankees close out their homestand with four games against the last-place Royals.

Their Story So Far

Kansas City is just four years removed from winning the World Series, but you wouldn’t know it looking at the roster. On the 25-man roster, only Alex Gordon remains. The Royals’ record, 6-12 coming into Thursday’s action, reflects the overhaul as the team goes into another rebuild.

Their offense has been right near league average with a 99 wRC+ while leading baseball with 20 stolen bases. Their pitching staff is more of a problem. The Royals’ 5.34 collective ERA is tied for 24th in all of baseball while the bullpen has a 6.37 ERA, third-worst in MLB.

Injury Report

Catcher Salvador Perez is out for the season with Tommy John surgery while pitchers Trevor Oaks and Jesse Hahn are on the 60-day IL with hip and elbow issues, respectively.

On the 10-day IL, starter Danny Duffy is working his way back from left shoulder tightness and is making a rehab start this weekend. Reliever Brian Flynn is out with left elbow soreness.

Players Spotlight: Alex Gordon and Whit Merrifield

If you’ve heard one thing about the Royals this season, it was likely about Merrifield surpassing 30 games with his hitting streak dating back to last season. However, there’s more to Whit than just hitting. He’s able to play all over the field. He hits for average, not too much power, and steals a lot of bases. He led the American League in steals each of the past two seasons. He’s everything you want in a leadoff hitter.

Meanwhile, Gordon has had a late-career resurgence starting with the last two months of 2018. He still struggles against same-sided pitchers, but he’s hitting .339 with a 1.008 OPS to begin the season, hitting three homers after just 22 over the last two seasons. In his final year under contract, Gordon would be valuable even if his bat was falling flat; Gordon is a wizard in the field, having won six Gold Gloves in left field, including the last two years.

Potential Lineup

Whit Merrifield, 2B (.320/.350/.493, 123 wRC+)
Adalberto Mondesi, SS (.254/.289/.507, 106 wRC+)
Alex Gordon, LF (.339/.427/.581, 172 wRC+)
Hunter Dozier, 3B (.298/.388/.596, 160 wRC+)
Ryan O’Hearn, 1B (.163/.339/.306, 83 wRC+)
Jorge Soler, RF (.221/.284/.471, 99 wRC+)
Lucas Duda, DH (.200/.359/.433, 111 wRC+)
Martin Maldonado, C (.174/.269/.239, 43 wRC+)
Billy Hamilton, CF (.213/.283/.213, 39 wRC+)

The team has some positional flexibility with Dozier and Duda able to man first base and Merrifield able to play middle infield or all around the outfield. Chris Owings is a utility player while backup catcher Cam Gallagher and pinch runner/outfielder Terrance Gore man the bench.

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (6:35 PM ET): RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Homer Bailey

Bailey seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s just 32 years old, having spent much of the last four seasons on the disabled list. From 2015-18, he started just 46 games for the Reds, going 9-27 with a 6.25 ERA in 231 2/3 innings.

The veteran righty has been able to avoid the IL this season, but the results haven’t changed. He brings a 5.29 ERA into this series with three home runs in 17 innings. His strikeout rate has been surprisingly prolific, fanning 21 in those 17 frames after just 75 strikeouts over 106 1/3 innings last season.

He still works with a 93 mph heater while going offspeed about half the time with his mid-80s splitter his key secondary offering. He’ll also mix in a slow curve and a hard slider.

Clint Frazier and Brett Gardner are 4-for-7 with a walk against Bailey. German has only faced Maldonado, who he struck out in 2017.

Friday (7:05 PM ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. Royals) vs. RHP Jakob Junis (vs. Yankees)

This matchup comes in with an unfortunate narrative already baked in: Junis is the pitcher who hit Aaron Judge in the wrist last summer and caused him to miss more than a month of games. The HBP didn’t appear intentional, yet Junis got death threats for injuring the Yankee slugger.

On the mound, he’s been a bit unlucky this season. The right-hander has pitched to a 3.55 FIP but has a 6.14 ERA. His strikeout rate has improved in each of his three MLB seasons — he’s at 24.5 percent through four starts — while his walk rate has hovered around six percent.

Junis faced the Yankees twice last season, beating them in Kansas City before getting pounded for seven runs in the Bronx. The big blow in the New York start was a grand slam by Didi Gregorius. Get well soon, Didi!

Saturday (1:05 PM ET): Masahiro Tanaka (vs. Royals) vs. Heath Fillmyer (vs. Yankees)

Fillmyer has been thrust into the Royals’ rotation with Duffy on the mend and will be making his third start of the season Saturday. He struggled against the upstart Mariners in his first appearance before settling down with an OK start (three runs, one walk, two Ks in five innings) against the White Sox.

The young right-hander works off a low-90s fastball and sinker with 20 percent sliders, 13 percent curves and 14 percent changeups. Statcast doesn’t rate him well as he’s allowed a bottom third percentile exit velocity (93.6 mph) in his eight innings and has a low strikeout and hard hit rate. Let’s see a larger sample before making definitive judgment.

Fillmyer is a local product. He is from Roebling, N.J. and attended Mercer County Community College, not too far from the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate Trenton Thunder.

Sunday (1:05 PM ET) James Paxton (vs. Royals) vs. Jorge Lopez (Never faced Yankee batters)

Lopez is a product of the Royals’ rebuild, coming over in the Mike Moustakas trade in July. The 26-year-old starter actually debuted in the Majors for Milwaukee in 2015 but didn’t get an extended opportunity to start until after the traded.

Like seemingly everyone in baseball, he’s struck out more batters this season while being prone to the long ball. Extremely prone. He’s allowed six homers in 23 innings. The White Sox produced five of the those homers across his two starts against the Southsiders. Still, he produced a career-high 10 strikeouts in his last outing in Chicago.

Lopez has a fastball averaging 93 mph (down one mph from last season) and turns to that and his sinker about half of the time, filling in the gaps mostly with his low-80s curveball.

Bullpen Status

Though there are many, if you want to pinpoint one weakness on the roster, it’s the bullpen. Kansas City leads baseball in losses where the team held the lead, though the Yankees aren’t far behind. Their starters outside Brad Keller, who the Yankees miss, have been middling to bad and the bullpen hasn’t been much better.

Kansas City’s eight-man bullpen has a clear division with four veterans and four youngsters. Right-handers Wily Peralta and Brad Boxberger are relievers with late-inning bona fides while Ian Kennedy has transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen. Left-hander Jake Diekman can work as a matchup lefty or get RHBs out. Of those pitchers, Kennedy has had the best start to the season while Peralta and Boxberger have ERAs above 7.00.

On the young side, right-handers Glenn Sparkman and Jake Newberry have had poor starts in limited innings while second-year righty Scott Barlow has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.57 ERA over seven innings. Lefty Richard Lovelady debuted earlier this April and has a 16.20 ERA in 1 2/3 innings.

Keys for the weekend

Take Three of Four (or More)

The Royals have the second-worst record in the American League (Boston is worse) and they’ve played like it. The Yankees need to keep winning series, home or away, against inferior competition if they want to make up their early deficit to Tampa Bay.

Speeding Tickets

Kansas City can run. Merrifield led baseball in stolen bases last season while Hamilton has 264 stolen bases over the last five seasons. Off the bench, Gore has been known for his pinch-running prowess. With pitchers like Adam Ottavino not known for holding runners, KC could feast this weekend.

Gordon’s deal a reminder the Yankees have Gardner on very favorable terms

January 7, 2016 by Mike Leave a Comment

Yesterday morning, the first of the still unsigned big name free agent outfielders came off the board. The Royals re-signed Alex Gordon, their longest tenured player, to a four-year contract worth $72M. The deal includes a mutual option for a fifth year and deferrals to help the team add some more pieces this offseason.

I thought Gordon had a chance to get $100M this offseason, though his age (32 in February) and the fact he’s not a big time power producer hurt his case for nine figures. Gordon’s simply a very good all-around player who does a little of everything. He’s something of an icon in Kansas City and going back to the Royals made sense for both sides.

The Yankees have their own version of Gordon in Brett Gardner, at least in terms of on-field ability. Gardner does not have the same kind of marquee value as Gordon, who is more or less the face of the Royals’ recent revival. The two are similar on-field players though. They both do a little of everything and have their greatest impact defensively.

Here’s a real quick side-by-side comparison of Gardner and Gordon from 2013-15. They’re both 32-ish — Gardner turned 32 in August and is six months older than Gordon — and they’re both left fielders, so this is a nice apples to apples comparison.

	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	HR-SB	BB%	K%	BsR	fWAR	bWAR
Gardner	1,901	.262/.338/.412	109	41-65	9.3%	20.8%	14.9	9.4	11.6
Gordon	1,765	.267/.348/.428	115	52-25	9.4%	20.3%	12.2	13.1	13.6

Gordon’s the better player and I’m not sure anyone would argue otherwise. They are pretty darn similar though, right? Gordon has been the slightly better hitter and Gardner the slightly better base-runner. If you’re still hung up on Gardner’s second half, well, Gordon had an 89 wRC+ in the second half last year and missed time with a groin injury. Heck, Gordon’s injury opened the door for Gardner to make the All-Star Team.

If you’re focusing on the WAR totals, the difference between Gordon and Gardner the last three years basically amounts to whatever the defensive stats are spitting out, and we know how sketchy those can be. Gordon is undeniably great in the field. Gardner’s pretty awesome too though. For whatever reason UZR has been hating on Yankees outfielders since the new Yankee Stadium opened. It is what it is.

Anyway, yes, Gordon is the better player but Gardner is pretty good too, and Gordon’s new contract helps give us an idea of what Gardner is worth these days. He has three years and $37.5M left on his contract. It’s four years and $50M if his option is exercised. Gordon just received $72M over four years, so the total guaranteed money left on his contract is nearly double what’s left on Gardner’s deal.

Is Gordon twice as good as Gardner? No, of course not. That’s what happens when one player signs his contract as a free agent and the other signs his contract as an extension a year before he hits the open market. Lots of teams out there need outfield help — the Tigers, Giants, Orioles, and Nationals jump to mind — and if they want a player comparable to Gardner, they’ll have to commit almost twice as much money as the Yankees owe the actual Brett Gardner.

The Yankees have been listening to offers for Gardner all offseason because in this market he is, absolutely, a bargain. He’s budget friendly relatively to what it would cost to get similar production on the open market. The Yankees have a lot of outfield depth and it makes sense to see what Gardner can fetch in a trade. So far they haven’t received any offers to their liking, so Brett remains with the team. That’s fine with me.

It’s become clear the market — what teams are willing (and able) to pay for talent — is ahead of where most of us think it is as fans. Players like Gordon and Gardner, the solid above-average guys who aren’t true stars, are getting close to $17M or $18M a year in free agency. The Yankees have Gardner on really favorable terms, and I see that as reason to both keep him and explore the trade market.

Mailbag: Draft Picks, Gordon, Girardi, Soriano

July 20, 2012 by Mike 82 Comments

I went with short-ish answers this week so I could squeeze in as many questions as possible, but I still only got to six. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar to send us anything, mailbag questions or otherwise.

Mark asks: Assuming Brett Gardner is indeed out for the year and that the Yanks’ main AL title competitor, the Rangers, make another big trading deadline splash and acquire either Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, should the Yanks counter by acquiring a solid hitting left fielder?

Nah, don’t make moves to “answer” another team’s moves. That’s how you end up with a Kei Igawa situation. If the Yankees are able to find a reasonable upgrade for the outfield given Gardner’s surgery, then by all means go for it. What another team — particularly a non-division rival — does is immaterial. Put the best possible team on the field and it doesn’t matter what everyone else does.

Cory asks: One big element missing from the offense this year is speed. Obviously Gardy’s out and his 49 steals from a year ago makes a big difference, but a 36-year-old Alex Rodriguez is the team leader. 38-year-old Jeter is second, and rounding out the top eight are guys with limited action (Jayson Nix, Dewayne Wise, Eduardo Nunez, Gardner), a 40-year-old Ibanez, and Curtis Granderson. Do you expect Cashman to target speed come July 31, or is that an element they can live without this year?

We’re already heard that if they do make a trade to acquire a replacement outfielder, that it would be a speedy center field type similar to Gardner. Overall team speed is the club’s one glaring hole just because there is none of it. They’re very station-to-station but they can live with that because they get guys on base and hit a bunch of extra-base hits. I think they can get by without any speed but it is something that would be nice to have, just to add a different element to the offense and occasionally put some pressure on the pitcher. Like I said, if they find someone reasonable to fill that need, by all means go for it.

Mike asks: Does signing money from competitive lottery picks factor into a team’s bonus pool? Could you see the Yanks sending a prospect to a team in exchange for the pick and the pool money, someone like a Adam Warren or Corban Joseph? Other team gets a prospect near MLB ready and doesn’t have to pay $1M for him, Yankees get the pick and don’t have to lose the prospect in the Rule 5 draft.

Yep, the extra competitive balance lottery picks comes with extra draft pool money and they can be traded. There are a dozen such picks and the Yankees don’t have one because they’re the Yankees. I have no idea how teams will value those picks in a trade but I’d guess they’d value the draft pool money more than the pick itself. Trading a near-MLB ready guy like Warren or CoJo seems like a backwards move given the high attrition rate of draft picks in general. I’d rather use them as part of a package for a piece to help the big league team or just keep them for depth. These competitive lottery picks seem like they would be the second or third piece in any trade, not the headliner.

Jon asks: A lot has been mentioned about the Royals looking for starting pitching (now and future). Could a package of David Phelps, Brett Marshall, and another lesser prospect get us Alex Gordon?

I don’t think that’s nearly enough. Gordon’s one of the better outfielders in the game even if his power dropped off quite a bit this year, and he’s signed to very reasonable long-term contract ($50M through 2015 with a player option for 2016). As impressive as Phelps has been in the first half, he’s still just mid-to-back-end starter and that’s not enough incentive for Royals. If they’re going to move Gordon, they’ll need a potential impact, number one type guy in return. Just look at what the White Sox gave up to acquire Nick Swisher at a similar point of his career — a potential front-line guy in Gio Gonzalez, another high-end pitching prospect (Fautino DeLoSantos), and a solid outfield prospect (Ryan Sweeney). Gordon obviously makes sense for New York but they would really need to sweeten that pot.

Michael asks: What do you think it would take for Joe Girardi to get fired in the next couple of years? Losing in the ALDS, losing in the wild card round, not making the playoffs, or maybe even just not winning the World Series?

An awful lot. Hal Steinbrenner, Brian Cashman, and the rest of the brain trust hand-picked Girardi for the job so it would take a ton for him to get fired. They’d have to miss the playoffs a few years in a row I believe, and even then he would just be a scapegoat. More than likely, the end of the Girardi era will come when he says he’s had enough and decides to walk away due to burnout or because another team offers a megacontract.

Anonymous asks: Given Rafael Soriano’s success in Mariano Rivera’s absence, do you see the front office pushing Cashman to renegotiate a contract and extend him beyond 2013 when this season is over? Despite the tools, something tells me David Robertson won’t be successful as our closer and there’s no telling how Mo will perform coming back from an injury at 43 years of age. Speaking of which, what kind of money will Mo receive next year if he’s healthy?

I really hope they don’t push to re-sign Soriano. If he opts out, say thank you very much and let him walk. That $14M he’s owed next season can go not just towards replacing Soriano with another high-end reliever, but also replacing Swisher in right (or even re-signing him) and maybe even adding various depth pieces. Soriano’s been awesome, better than we could have possibly expected once Mo went down, but he won’t continue pitching at this level because no reliever not named Mariano ever has sustained a performance like this across multiple years. It just doesn’t happen and I wouldn’t expect a 32-year-old with a history of elbow problems to do it.

As for Mo, I think they’ll re-sign him to a one-year deal at similar money to what he’s making now, so $15-16M. I know he’s 43 and coming off knee surgery and all that, but I have a hard time thinking they’ll play hardball with the money. They might hold the line on one-year but I doubt they’d balk at a high salary. It’s just money and Mo’s one of the few players with legitimate high-end marquee value that transcends his on-field value.