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Looking at Granderson’s new stance

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Later tonight, the Yankees will trot out their lineup heavy on right-handed bats vs. Tampa’s David Price. Robinson Cano and Nick Johnson, two lefties who can handle southpaws will play, but Marcus Thames will sub for Brett Gardner. Meanwhile, at the bottom of the order will be Curtis Granderson, the Yanks’ center fielder who struggles against lefties. For the last few seasons, Granderson hasn’t done well against lefties, and today, Moshe Mandel at The Yankee U posits that this trend could change. Granderson, he discovered had adjusted where he positions his hands, and a few scouts think this new handset will prevent him from flying open against lefties. As the game unfolds tonight, keep an eye on Granderson’s ABs against Price. Perhaps there’s something to this after all.

Addendum: In other Curtis Granderson news, after the home run against Jonathan Papelbon on Wednesday night, John Sterling apparently started singing “The Grandy Man Can” to the tune of “The Candy Man Can” from the original movie version of Willie Wonka & The Chocolate Factory. The good folks at It Is High, It Is Far, It Is….Caught captured this one and juxtaposed it with Sammy Davis Jr.’s version of the song. It’s a must-listen 45-second clip.

The new guys pitch in to beat Sox in extras

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There were a few moments in the ninth when it didn’t seem like the Yankees would see extra innings. The Sox nearly ended it a couple of times, but the Yanks hung in there and took advantage during Papelbon’s second inning of work. I’ll take a win against the Sox any way it comes, but it’s so much sweeter when Papelbon is the goat.

Biggest Hit: Curtis Granderson’s 10th inning jack

Photo credit: Charles Krupa/AP

After a 10-pitch, 1-2-3 ninth inning, Jon Papelbon got the call to face the bottom of the Yankees’ order in the 10th. He had already taken care of the heart of the order, retiring A-Rod, Cano, and Posada in the ninth, so he had a seemingly easier task ahead of him. With the Yankees’ order, though, there is no soft spot. Every hitter can do serious damage. Curtis Granderson, the No. 7 hitter, proved that almost immediately.

Papelbon opened the at-bat with a fastball low in the zone, his 10th in 11 pitches. Granderson fouled it off. Once again Papelbon went with the fastball, this time leaving it up in the zone. Victor Martinez set up low, but it looked like Papelbon just missed his spot. Granderson sent it well over the right field wall, giving the Yankees the lead and leaving the game up to Mo. That’s never a bad thing.

Honorable Mention: Nick Swisher’s RBI single

Photo credit: Elise Amendola/AP

For three full innings the Sox held a 1-0 lead. John Lackey didn’t exactly work efficiently, but the Yanks couldn’t get anything going off him. Then, in the seventh, with Lackey’s pitch count at exactly 100, the Sox went to the bullpen. With two lefties and a switch hitter due up, Francona went to Scott Schoeneweis. He did his job against the two lefties, striking out both Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. His trouble, however, came from Jorge Posada, who doubled on a slider right in his wheelhouse.

With another switch-hitter, Nick Swisher, due up, Francona went to Dan Bard to finish the inning. He started Swisher with a 97 mph fastball on the inside edge, which Swisher fouled away. The next pitch was similar, though it caught a bit more of the plate. Same result. The third pitch had a bit more zip, registering at 99 mph, but again Swisher fouled it off. For the fourth and final pitch, Bard took a little bit off. The pitch registered at 91, but it featured a bit more movement than the previous three pitches. Movement or not, though, it was right over the heart of the plate and Swisher slapped it on the ground to right.

The ensuing play would have been more comical if 1) it wasn’t close and 2) if Jorge hadn’t hit the ground hard. J.D. Drew’s throw home was a bit up the line and Victor Martinez had to reach out to get it. Jorge was just about at the plate by that point, and the two got a bit tied up trying to avoid a big collision. The ball rolled away and Jorge touched up to tie the game.

Biggest Pitch: Ortiz finally gets a hit

Photo credit: Elise Amendola/AP

David Ortiz gave us all a chuckle with his expletive laden rambling last night, but in the third inning last night he was no laughing matter. Dustin Pedroia doubled down the left field line to open the inning, but Andy Pettitte came back to retire Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkiis. To escape the frame without damage all he had to do was retire David Ortiz, 0 for the season at the time with just one walk.

Pettitte started the at-bat with a low fastball called for strike one. Then he went to the cutter, throwing it three straight times and getting one swing and miss, bringing the count to 2-2. For the fifth pitch he went back to the fastball, this time looking inside. This one didn’t have as much life on it as the first pitch, which allowed Ortiz to extend his arms and smack it to right. Were Jesse Barfield in right he probably would have gotten Pedroia at the plate. Nick Swisher, however, didn’t get nearly enough on the throw and the Sox took an early 1-0 lead.

Biggest Blunder: A-Rod’s DP in the 6th

As John Lackey’s pitch count rose it looked like the Yankees were finally getting to him. Derek Jeter led off the sixth by working a 2-2 count, reaching base when Lackey hit him in the back. Nick Johnson, looking for his first hit smoked the seventh pitch of the at-bat to right. It was within J.D. Drew’s range, though. Teixeira then walked, putting runners at first and second with one out for A-Rod, hitless so far on the night.

It looked like the Yanks had Lackey on the ropes. He had already thrown 17 pitches in the inning and his first pitch to A-Rod would be his 99th. Yet A-Rod swung at the first pitch. It was somewhat in his wheelhouse, a 91 mph cutter on the inner half. He only managed to foul it away, though. Lackey came back with another hittable pitch in about the same location, this time a four-seamer, but A-Rod didn’t put a good swing on it. A grounder to third meant an around the horn double play, ending the threat.

In addition to having the biggest negative WPA play for the Yankees, A-Rod also had by far the lowest total WPA, -.279, more than 10 percent worse than Cano’s -.137.

Don’t judge him by one appearance

Photo credit: Charles Krupa/AP

Chan Ho Park faced his share of criticism after serving up a home run to Dustin Pedroia on Sunday night. He got the night off on Tuesday while Al Aceves worked his multi-inning magic. Park found himself in that same role last night. He took over in the seventh after Andy Pettitte battled through six innings, but this time he didn’t disappoint.

He didn’t exactly pitch his three innings gracefully. He did face only 10 batters, with Marco Scutaro batting twice. Of the nine outs he recorded seven were in the air, and a few of them came a little close to the wall for my liking. But he did get the job done. J.D. Drew collected the only hit of the outing, and while Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre gave us a bit of a scare, well, no harm no foul. Also, no one would have even left their seat at Yankee Stadium on Cameron’s fly.

It helped, too, that as soon as Park finished his job Granderson gave the Yankees the lead, thus giving Mo the ball. I hope to see more instances of Park and Aceves pitching multiple innings. Why take the ball away if they’re pitching well?

Things that made me smile

Photo credit: Charles Krupa/AP

Victor Martinez. After hitting Burnett hard last night, he was the last guy I wanted to see up with runners on first and second with none out in the fist. Pettitte got him to ground to third, though, and A-Rod tossed it around the horn for two outs. I wondered if he would take it to third, killing Ellsbury, before throwing across the diamond. With Martinez running he had a chance. Best, though, to take the surest path to multiple outs.

Pettitte’s final inning start off annoyingly, with Adrian Beltre singling, but it ended wonderfully. J.D. Drew grounded an 0-1 curveball to Cano, which started a double play. After he struck out Mike Cameron I did a little fist pump. So did Pettitte.

I never want to see someone get hit in the head, but if it’s going to happen at least let it be like Pettitte’s fastball off Youkilis’s head. The 90 mph fastball seemed to get away from Pettitte. Youkilis was in the process of ducking, so he was moving away from the impact. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have been a laughing matter. All I could think at the time was, “schtoink!”

Then I smiled some more when Pettitte struck out Ortiz to end the inning.

Mo for the second night in a row.

Photo credit: Charles Krupa/AP

Things that annoyed me

A-Rod. His fly outs in the first and fourth didn’t look to bad, but from the double play on he took some weak hacks. None, of course, was as costly as the DP.

Dustin Pedroia and his tiny strike zone. It would annoy me a lot less if he wasn’t a damn good hitter.

Adrian Beltre hitting the ball hard almost every time up.

Next up

Friday night at 7 the Yanks head into Tampa. Javy Vazquez goes for the Yanks against David Price for the Rays.

WPA Chart

Check out the full WPA breakdown at the FanGraphs box score.

Report: Granderson to play CF, Gardner LF

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Via Joel Sherman, the Yankees have decided that Curtis Granderson will start the season as the every day centerfielder, pushing the incumbent Brett Gardner to left. He notes that Granderson’s sometimes awkward routes have improved as camp has progressed, and the Yanks didn’t feel it was enough of an upgrade defensively to make the switch. The move will probably cost the Yankees something like five runs defensively over the course of the season, though we don’t have enough reliable data on Gardner’s defense to say with any certainty.

I guess the biggest thing is just making sure Granderson was comfortable. There’s no need to move him back and forth between center and left depending on who else was playing the outfield on a given day (Gardner, Randy Winn, Marcus Thames), the guy will have enough to get used to in his first season in New York as it is.

Hitting the opposite way a key for Granderson in 2010

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In previewing Curtis Granderson’s season, I noted that his rebound to 2008 levels is essential for the Yankees offense. That would represent a replica of Johnny Damon’s 2009 season, making Granderson the perfect fill-in. How, though, will he return to those levels? Clearly, hitting lefties better is a good start. But what then? Where else was Granderson deficient in 2009?

Throughout his career, Granderson has hit the ball well to left field. In fact, during his first full-season in 2006 he destroyed the ball to the opposite field, hitting .388 with a .320 ISO in 107 balls directed that way. His average to left dipped a bit during his breakout 2007 season, to .265, but he still hit for plenty of power, a .184 ISO. This is the season, though, during which he started to hit for more power to right. HIs ISO when pulling went from .229 in 2006 to .441 in 2007. In 2008 Granderson again hit well to the opposite field, posting a .327 BA and .292 ISO. This was, at least in part, because he hit 25.5 percent of his balls in play that way, similar to his 24.6 percent mark from 2006. He hit 20.5 percent the opposite way in 2007.

In 2009 Granderson got back to his 2007 level distribution, hitting 21.6 percent of his balls in play the opposite way. His numbers on those balls in play dropped greatly, too, a .179 batting average and a .047 ISO. Of course, as in his 2007 season, his numbers when pulling spiked, a .385 BA and .405 ISO. Even better for him, he hit 259 balls that way, far more than at any point of his career, representing 52.3 percent of his balls in play. Yet the net effect was negative, and Granderson posted the worst BA and OBP of his career.

Granderson’s poor contact to the opposite field in 2009 shows in his batted ball splits. He hit a career high 73.6 percent fly balls to left, though it wasn’t terribly higher than his 70.8 percent mark in 2008. The difference, however, showed up in two other places. First, he hit 24.4 percent of those opposite field fly balls to the shortstop or third baseman. That means of the 79 fly balls he hit to left, 19 of them didn’t leave the infield. Even worse, zero of those 60 outfield fly balls left the yard. Granderson never flashed tremendous home run power to left, but he’s always put at least a couple out of the yard. Not in 2009.

Furthermore, Granderson hit a scant few ground balls to the left side, which likely sapped his batting average (since ground balls go for hits more often than fly balls). He hit just 8.5 percent ground balls the opposite way, about half his percentage from 2008. Also, though not as significant, he also posted a three-year low in infield hit percentage to the left side. Since most infield hits go in that direction, he further hurt his average.

While Granderson’s issues against lefties are well-documented and easily accessible, his numbers when hitting the opposite way also present cause for concern. During his run from 2006 through 2008 Granderson generally hit well the opposite way; even in his pull-happy 2007 he still far outperformed his 2009 marks. We’ve often heard that the left field porch at Yankee Stadium could help Granderson, but perhaps it could work against him. If he starts trying to put balls there it could hurt his numbers going the opposite way. As we’ve seen, his inability to hit that way in 2009 played a prominent role in his poor performance.

Photo credit: Gene J. Puskar/AP

2010 Season Preview: Banking on another rebound candidate

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In 2008 the Yankees posted their worst offensive season in recent memory. The unit finished seventh in the AL in runs scored, after finishing in the top five, and usually in the top three, since their playoff ran began. Injuries played a large role in the decline. Hideki Matsui missed the entire second half, as did Jorge Posada. Even Alex Rodriguez spent three weeks on the DL, and many think that Derek Jeter played through a wrist injury. The team also saw diminished production from a couple of its younger players, Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. In order to succeed in 2009, the Yankees needed bounce back seasons from more than one of those players.

When Brian Cashman traded for Nick Swisher that November, he placed an even deeper reliance on the team returning to form. Not only did he need rebounds from his own players, but now needed one from an incoming player. He didn’t place a huge bet on Swisher — he cost the team only spare parts, players who wouldn’t have had a role on any future Yankees team. But at the time he was slated to start at first base, leaving the lineup with not only five players who needed to rebound, but also one, Xavier Nady, who almost certainly wouldn’t repeat his 2008 success. It was a pretty big gamble, though mitigated when the Yanks acquired Mark Teixeira later that winter.

Somehow, the plan worked out on all fronts. While Rodriguez missed the first month of the season, Posada missed a couple of weeks, and Matsui couldn’t play the field, the Yankees saw each of their rebound candidates take that step forward. This off-season Cashman cashed in a few of those chips, letting Hideki Matsui leave as a free agent and trading Melky Cabrera in the Javy Vazquez trade. Yet he apparently enjoys picking up players coming off down years, as his first major move this winter was to acquire Curtis Granderson from the Tigers. The case is a bit different than Swisher’s, mainly because the Yankees paid a lot more for Granderson, but the rebound necessity remains.

Granderson’s 2009 offensive season looks more like a follow-up to his 2006 campaign rather than his 2008. In 2006 he put his potential on display as a 25-year-old, hitting .260/.335/.438, good for a .333 wOBA while playing a mean center field. In 2009 he hit .249/.327/.453 while playing a just above average center field. He slightly improve his walk rate from 2006, to 10.1 percent from 9.7, and also increased his ISO from .178 to .204. If he had posted his 2009 line in 2007 we would have thought it completely normal. His defense regressed, but he made improvements in other areas. Even his batting average can be explained by a poor BABIP, .275, down from .333 in 2006.

Of course, 2009 did not come directly after 2006. Instead, Granderson posted an elite season in 2007, hitting .302/.361/.552, a .395 wOBA. He also continued to track down more fly balls than his fellow center fielders. His WAR that season, 7.3, was more than a win better than the next highest center fielder, Aaron Rowand at 6.1. He followed that with a quality 2008 campaign in which he hit .280/.365/.494, a .374 wOBA, though his defense dipped a bit. That dropped him in the WAR rankings, though his offensive component still ranked fifth among his peers. It was good enough, in other words, that his performance in 2009 came as a surprise.

The good news for the Yankees is that even if he repeats his 2009 he’ll still post a more valuable season than Melky Cabrera did. Of course, the Yankees are looking for a bit more than that, since Granderson, along with Nick Johnson, is charged with replacing two of the heavier bats from the 2009 Yankees. A return to his 2008 form seems a feasible expectation, though his 2007 appears to be an outlier in almost every sense. Still, a.374 wOBA, at .280/.365/.494, would essentially replace Damon’s 2009 production.

How do the projection systems see it?


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Unsurprisingly, this checks in right around Granderson’s career line of .272/.344/.484. It would represent a modest improvement over his 2009, but when the Yankees traded their No. 2 prospect for him in December they likely expected more. I’m confident Granderson can deliver, too. He clearly has the tools, and now he’s surrounded by much better hitters than in the Detroit lineup. He’ll also face a lot less pressure as he moves from the leadoff spot to the bottom of the order (though I think there are worse ideas than trying him in the five hole).

The gamble on Granderson is clear. Cash in two winning chips, Matsui and Cabrera, and put another one down on the table. Again, because of what theYankees surrendered its a bit bigger gamble than they placed last year, but I think still a winnable one. If it does pay off, the Yankees will reap the benefits not only in 2010, but also over the next few years of Granderson’s contract.

Photo credit: Gene J. Puskar/AP

The whole picture for the No. 2 hitter

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Over the past few days we’ve looked at a few aspects of a quality No. 2 hitter. We want someone who will get on base and set the table for the heart of the order, but who also won’t ground into double plays when the leadoff man reaches. As it turns out, the guy who gets on base more grounds into far more double plays. Will those twin killings hurt the team more than his presence on the base paths helps it?

Since we’re working with the theoretical here I’ll use the Bill James projections, mostly because they assume a greater run environment. We really could have used any system, though, since we need only compare the systems to themselves.

Getting on base for Teixeira

Bill James projects Granderson to reach base in 35.3 percent of his plate appearances, and Johnson to reach in 41.4 percent. To make things easier, we’ll scale this to 600 plate appearances, which lies between each of their projections. That means Johnson would reach 248 times to Granderson’s 212. Beyond the obvious observation that Johnson would reach base 36 more times than Granderson, it also represents some fraction of those 36 where Granderson would end an inning.

That last point, I think, is sometimes overlooked when discussing players reaching base. Clearly, Johnson won’t keep 36 innings going where Granderson would end one. But if that’s true for even a third of them, it’s a dozen innings where Teixeira hits with a man on base rather than starting the next inning with the bases empty. Over his career Teixeira has hit .295/.400/.555 with men on base and .285/.357/.535 with the bases empty. Those dozen situations, then, could lead to a few extra runs over the course of a season.

Keeping Jeter on the base paths

Given the same number of plate appearances, we know Johnson will make fewer outs than Granderson. Unfortunately, sometimes the outs Johnson makes count double. He has come to the plate 594 times in his career facing a double play chance, and has hit into it 72 times, or 12.1 percent of the time. How much, then, does this offset his ability to get on base?

The Bill James projections peg Jeter for 152 singles and 64 walks, or 216 times reaching first base. It also projects him to bat 631 times, so we need to scale down the number to 600 PA, which puts it at 205 times. At a 12.1 percent GIDP rate, Johnson would erase Jeter 26 times. Granderson, however, grounds into a double play just 4.4 percent of the time, so he would erase Jeter only 9 times. That’s 17 additional instances, or 34 additional outs, for Johnson.

We often say that the most important thing a player can do at bat is not make an out. Each team gets only 27 outs per game, and only three before they have to clear the bases and start over, so those outs are the most valuable assets in the game. Using straight OBP in a 600 PA environment, we can expect Johnson to make 352 outs and Granderson 388. Once we add in their twin killings, though, we see that Johnson projects to make 378 outs and Granderson 397 — and that’s just considering Jeter’s instances of reaching first base.

More than one way to think about it

Clearly, the double play situation does not bode well for Johnson. He still projects to make fewer outs than Granderson, but the double plays make that a lot closer. Like all baseball issues, however, there are plenty more ways to look at the comparison.

Yes, Johnson might erase Jeter in 26 of the 205 times he reaches first base. No one wants to see that. But the flip side presents the number of times both Jeter and Johnson will reach base. Scaled to 600 PA, Jeter figures to reach base, but not hit a home run, 237 times. Holding consistent Johnson’s .414 OBP, that means that 98 times Teixeira will come to the plate either with both Jeter and Johnson on base, or otherwise with Johnson on base with Jeter sitting on the bench and a run on the board. With Granderson that figure falls to 84 instances.

Granderson, however, has a bit more power than Johnson right now. Scaled to 600 PA, Granderson projects to hit 51 extra base hits, which represents 8.5 percent of his plate appearances. Then again, Johnson projects to hit 49 extra base hits when scaled to 600 PA, so it might not be that big a difference. The enormous caveat here is that we’re scaling down Granderson’s and scaling up Johnson’s. I know it shouldn’t make a huge difference, but I feel a bit more comfortable with the former.

What about their results once they’ve reached base? According to Baseball Prospectus’s EQBRR, Granderson added 1.9 runs on the base paths. That doesn’t seem like a huge amount, especially for a player with his speed. Then again, his OBP fell to .330, which certainly plays a part. In 2008, when his OBP was .365, Granderson generated 5.8 runs on the base paths. Johnson was worth -2.1 runs on the bases, which doesn’t seem that bad considering his lack of speed. Still, we’re looking at something like a seven-run swing at 600 PA.

So who hits second?

From all indications, it’s Johnson. At this point, with a clean slate, I think that’s the right call. Even when factoring in double plays he makes fewer outs than Granderson, which means more opportunities to hit with men on base for Teixeira and A-Rod. At the outset that should be the No. 1 concern.

Of course, if the DPs become a problem, they could consider a swap. Granderson doesn’t figure to be a black hole in the two hole by any stretch. He can get around the bases, and he won’t erase Jeter too many times. But with the presence of Johnson on the roster, he’s the second best man for the job.

Avoiding the twin killing in the two hole

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In discussing the merits of a No. 2 hitter, I hit on the value of setting the table. Because Nick Johnson gets on base at a better clip than the other candidates, he’ll create more opportunities for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez to hit with men on base. But, while getting on base factors prominently into the quality of a No. 2 hitter, other issues can change the situation. For instance, what if the No. 2 hitter, who gets on base at a high clip, also grounds into a lot of double plays? Wouldn’t that sap his value?

About a year ago, while he was working with Team USA, I made a further argument for Derek Jeter the leadoff hitter. Beyond the reasons we’d heard a thousand times — Jeter got on base more than Damon while Damon had more power than Jeter — I thought another factor played prominently. In 2008 Jeter hit into 24 double plays, the highest number of his career. Many times, I’m sure, these double plays came after Damon reached safely. Damon, though, is historically good at avoiding double plays. Flipping the two, then, seemed obvious.

Just a few days after that post, Joe Girardi announced that he would make that very flip. The results, as we saw, reflected the projection. Jeter hit into fewer double plays. Damon hit into more, but that’s going to happen when the guy in front of you gets on base 40 percent of the time. This raises an interesting point. We don’t learn much from raw GIDP numbers, because they’re not placed in any context. What we seek is some kind of rate for GIDP — how many times the player hit into a double play when presented the opportunity. That seems like relevant information for a No.2 hitter.

Thankfully, Baseball Reference does have information about double play opportunities (under More Stats, then Situational Hitting).* So, among Johnson, Curtis Granderson, and Robinson Cano, who has hit into the most double plays per opportunity? We’ll add in Damon for comparison.

*When I originally wrote this article, I had no idea this existed. Thanks to B-R founder Sean Forman for pointing me in the right direction. This table is totally accurate.

Player GDP Opp Pct.
Johnson 72 594 12.1
Granderson 18 410 4.4
Cano 94 670 14.0
Damon 84 1591 5.3

Does Johnson’s GIDP propensity offset his better on-base skills? Sound like a good idea for another follow-up article.