Aug
31

Fan Confidence Poll: August 31st, 2009

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Record Last Week: 4-2 (43 RS, 24 RA)
Season Record: 82-48 (739 RS, 613 RA), 6.0 games up
Opponents This Week: @ Baltimore (3 games), @ Toronto (4 games)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Categories : Polls

125 Comments»

  1. Jake H says:

    9 for me. Team is clicking all over. BP has been very good, SP very good and the O just keeps getting hits.

    I wonder if they can get Posada and Jeter to 20 hr.

  2. Jeremy says:

    9 for me, which is unusual. Probably due to having been at the Mitre game and still living in a state of wonderment.

  3. Confidence Level: 10.

    (Again, finally).

    I like this Joba plan better than all the other Joba plans. And that was the only concern I had left. Nothing stands in the way of a decade of Yankee dominance.

    (Kazmir and Wagner? Bitch and please.)

  4. 9. Things are going great but there are always things that could be better.

    /cliche’d

    I am, however, incredibly excited for the rosters to expand. Getting a look at the young guys (and a second look at Pena/Cervelli) is going to be great.

  5. V says:

    9 for me as well, ESPECIALLY if Mitre and Gaudin are respectable this season and next. Damaso Marte too.

    Btw, we just met Kei Igawa, and my wife got his autograph, heh!

  6. Makavelli says:

    7-8 for me. They are playing very good baseball and if the confidence level was just solely based on the regular season I would give it a 9 or a 10 even.

    What I’m worried about are the short series’ against teams with dominant pitching. The Angels added a pitcher who dominated us this year (even though he had an ERA above 6.00). They destroyed us going into the All Star break despite being on a hot streak. The Red Sox we’ve been playing very well against as of late but you never know what you’re going to get against them in the playoffs. It always interesting. The Tigers have Verlander and company and have a very good offense as well.

    CC doesn’t have a very good history in the post season, AJ Burnett has been either filthy or real bad…he’s streaky, Joba is a question mark, and Mitre/Gaudin is real bad. Our offense is incredible…but it’s been incredible the past several years and we haven’t made it out of the 1st round since 2004.

    I’m kind of nervous but I do have confidence because we’ve been playing so well. I just hope it carries through.

  7. pat says:

    8. Hard to not be too optimistic. Barring a prolonged slump, we’ve secured home field as well as the best record in baseball. Now we just have to excise those postseason demons that have plagued us the past few years. Gotta bitch slap those Angels, Arod needs to be Arod and everybody else needs to do their job.

  8. Riddering says:

    10.

    Yeah, yeah, yeah, temper my feelings, be reasonable, euphoria leads to the dark side. I get it.

    But it won’t change my confidence! I’m certain we’re going to hit 100 wins this season and have no worries at all about taking the division. Next year I think we’ll be in even better shape for the future and then Jesus will Arrive and all will be well for years and years.

  9. Sam says:

    8. Our pitching in the playoffs concerns me a little. Should bump to 9 when we clinch a playoff berth.

  10. Kiersten says:

    Staying strong at a 9 since that Boston sweep in the Bronx. Love this team.

  11. Jose says:

    My confidence has not changed throughout the entire course of the season. It remains at a 10. Then again, my confidence for the organization back in 1990 was a 10. I cannot lose faith in the ultimate Yankee goal of winning championships.

  12. Frank says:

    8. My main concern is the BP, specifically Bruney,Coke and D-Rob. Not real confident in them in a close game, much less a playoff game.

    • Mike Axisa says:

      Good thing the odds of those guys actually getting into a close game in the playoffs is small. When push comes to shove, we’ll see Hughes and Aceves handle the load. Especially in the playoffs.

      • Makavelli says:

        Who, out of the post season bullpen roster, does come in…in a close or late game?

        This question is enhanced even more when Joba is in there and seemingly leaves in the 5th inning or so…

        • Chris says:

          6th/7th: Aceves
          8th: Hughes
          9th: Mo (or more likely Bruney, Coke or Robertson as we’ve probably tacked on 4 or 5 runs in the 7th and 8th innings against the crappy middle relievers that every other team runs out there).

      • Chris says:

        Do you think that by the time the playoffs come around Marte will have moved ahead of Coke on the lefty reliever depth chart?

        • Mike Axisa says:

          Considering that Girardi used Marte with a one run lead in the seventh and Coke in the ninth once the game got out of hand yesterday, I’d say it’s already happened.

          • That.

            Considering that Damaso Marte has already established himself as a dominant, lights-out LHP reliever over much of the past decade, I’d say that Coke needed to be AWESOME to avoid losing his spot to Marte. Damaso gets the benefit of the doubt, and he’s shown that he’s good to go.

            • I haven’t seen Damaso Marte be anything but awful for the Yankees. Therefore, his track record does not matter and the Yankees have no option to face left handed batters. They are screwed in the playoffs and will be doomed.

    • Brian Bruney, August, 2009:
      8 games, 10.0 IP, 45 batters faced, 9 H, 6 BB, 5 K, 1 R, 0 HR, 0.90 ERA

      David Robertson, August, 2009:
      11 games, 9.2 IP, 45 batters faced, 11 H, 4 BB, 17 K, 3 R, 1 HR, 2.79 ERA

      As for Coke, I got nothing. He’s got a definite gopherball problem, and I can understand you not being confident in him. Silver lining: now that Marte’s back, Coke is relegated back to #2 lefty out of the pen status, as he was intended to be initially.

      • Makavelli says:

        10 walks in 19.2 innings from 2 of our projected playoff relievers is a tad concerning.

        You combine that with 20 hits in 19.2 innings and it doesn’t serve up to be a tasty recipe. The 17 K’s from Robertson is very nice while the 5 K’s (and 6 BB’s) for Bruney are very disappointing.

        The ERA’s are very nice…but so wasn’t Joba’s ERA with 6+ days rest…for a little while despite having pretty bad numbers. And it eventually caught up to him.

  13. Henry says:

    I hope we see NOTHING BUT Hughes, taking the 7th and 8th with a little mix of Ace so we don’t burn out Hughes and a little bit of Marte here and there and then game over. There isn’t even a 9th inning. Quite frankly, I’m not too sure if there will even be a 7th or 8th if Hughes keeps up the dominating performance out of the pen(not taking into account his rust and lack of use lately obviously.)

  14. Jamal G. says:

    For everyone expressing concerns about the Yankees’ rotation in the playoffs, please, explain to me what other playoff-contending AL team’s rotation you would take over the Yanks?

    Everything is relative, holmes.

    • CC-AJ-Andy-Joba are better than (or, at your most pessimistic, equal to):

      Weaver-Lackey-Santana-Kazmir
      Beckett-Lester-Wakefield-Buchholz
      Shields-Garza-Neimann-Price
      Verlander-Jackson-Washburn-Porcello
      Pavano-Baker-Blackburn-Duensing
      Buerhle-Floyd-Danks-Peavy
      Millwood-Feldman-Holland-Nippert

      I’ll take our foursome over all those other foursomes. Every day of the week and twice on doubleheaders.

      • Henry says:

        I’m glad you’re soo confident that our staff is that much better. Here us the way I look at it.
        CC, AJ, Pettite, Joba

        vs.

        Beckett(toss-up), Lester (toss-up), Wakefield(adv. Yanks), Bucholz(inclined to say Yanks, but Ill just stay safe and call this one a toss-up depending on which Joba shows up)

        Verlander(toss-up), Jackson (toss-up), Washburn(adv. yanks), Porcello (again, inclined to say Yanks especially since Joba has been a monster vs. Detroit this year, it’s just that Porcello might just be as equally good as Joba).

        So in general, although we might have the better rotation, it’s very very close. And no matter what the outcome, as I mentioned we clearly have the adv. In our No.3 slot, Andy IMHO will be huge for us ESP. if he can hold true to that adv. we have in the No. 3 slot.

        • Which is why I said, if you’re a natural pessimist and think that CC and AJ will be just good rather than dominant and Andy and Joba will be thoroughly mediocre instead of good… even if you take that dim view of the Yankees rotation, we’re still at bare minimum break-even with all the other rotations in the playoff hunt.

          At our worst, it’s a tie. At our best, it’s a walkover.

      • Chris says:

        Wakefield can barely walk. Does he even count as a starter anymore?

        And it’s pretty comical that a team could be contending for a playoff spot with Pavano at the top of their rotation.

    • pat says:

      Detroit is still pretty scary. We’re a better all around team than them but Verlander and Jackson are pretty formidable.

      Verlander vs NYY- 14ip 1.29 ERA 15k 2ER 1.07 whip
      Jackson vs NYY- 13ip 1.39 ERA 8k 2ER 1.15 whip

      I understand we beat them both once this year and but it was due to herculean pitching effort from our guys. For some reason if CC and AJ scuffle we would find ourselves in a most unenviable position.

  15. Henry says:

    To tell you the truth. Now that I think about it, guys just bear with me. It wouldn’t be duh a bad idea to have on your top prospects that are ready for ML action to spen one full year in the pen to get a little taste before being thrown into the fire, that is, as long as there are no big holes in the rotation. Because as itsbbeen said many times before. A good starter will always make a good, if not excellent reliever. And we can use that pitcher as the 6th and 8th inning guy that way he is constantly getting 2inning outing out of the pen so he won’t nd the year with something like 40-60IP. And instead end up with 80-120 IP. And he’ll have some built up confidence and a good number of innings under his belt for next year when/if he’s ready to crak the rotation. A bit out of the ordinary, I know. But IMHO it doesn’t seem like too bad of an idea. What do you guys think?

    • Henry says:

      7th and 8th innings. Sorry. Lots of typos. Doing it from my phone.

    • And we can use that pitcher as the 6th and 8th inning guy that way he is constantly getting 2inning outing out of the pen so he won’t and the year with something like 40-60IP. And instead end up with 80-120 IP.

      People keep suggesting this. It never happens because it’s logistically impossible. There are too many varied circumstances during the course of a 162 game season to get a single reliever 90, 100, 110, or 120 innings in a single year (unless they’re also spot starting). Too many game situations that dictate against it, too many other guys that need work and would rust away, too big of a workload on irregular rest for one pitcher to bear.

      It doesn’t happen. If you’re putting a young pitcher in the pen because you think it’s good for his development, you have a good and valid argument that I agree with on principle (if not necessarily in practice). But he’s going to throw 60 innings, tops. That’s life. Bullpen guys don’t throw 100 innings. It just doesn’t happen.

      • Henry says:

        Yea, I hear everything you’re saying, and quite frankly, I agree, I didn’t really think it through to that extent. Ts just something I thought of here since I’m bored and in class. And my prof. Is just b.s.ing his way through the first day of class.

        • King of Fruitless Hypotheticals says:

          So he spends the first half of the year working on secondary pitches and building innings.

          Spends the second half spot starting, mopping up, long relief or just a few 2 innings appearances, all depending on his inning limits. You can vary high/low leverage, etc. Next year he does the same or becomes your #5 guy (or reliever, depending on just how well he did…total fail, start over in AAA again).

          Tough part is to do that with 5 pitchers…

        • And you had to:

          A) go back 13 years to find that and
          B) use the great Mariano Rivera, a/k/a “The Human Outlier”

          • Chris says:

            Just because no one has done it doesn’t mean that no one can do it. I went back to him because I remembered him off the top of my head.

            If you want a more recent example, here’s one:
            http://tinyurl.com/ltlp7k

            • But again, what’s Ace going to end up at? 75 IP, tops?

              That’s not “80-120 IP”.

              • Chris says:

                He has 65 IP in 4 months. If you extrapolate his innings to include April and September, then he would have ended up at 95-100IP.

                Innings pitched by month:
                May: 19.2
                June: 13.2
                July: 15.0
                August: 19.0

                • Okay, good point. I forgot about his minor league numbers from April.

                  Still, though, my two rejoinders:

                  1) Ace has flirted with injury this year, so it’s not like the 95-100 IP came without any concerns
                  2) Ace is 26 (almost 27) and has a much smaller ceiling. So, we are more willing to gamble with his arm, because he’s not a blue-chip prospect and because he’s older and more mature.

                  I’ll concede it’s possible (the 90 IP goal, not the 120 IP goal… that’s insane). But it’s still highly improbable.

                • Chris says:

                  2) Ace is 26 (almost 27) and has a much smaller ceiling. So, we are more willing to gamble with his arm, because he’s not a blue-chip prospect and because he’s older and more mature.

                  I agree with this 100%. I think this is why they were willing to use him in the way they have. I would hope that seeing his success would lead to a willingness to use more pitchers in this manner, and get their innings up to about 100IP out of the pen. Guys with very high upside (like Hughes and Joba) are better options in the rotation, but the next tier of guys (like Nova) could be very effective and have more value that simply as a regular middle reliever.

                  Aceves is also a unique case because he throws so few pitches. Out of the 160 pitchers with at least 60IP, he’s 9th in fewest pitches per IP at 14.7. It’s particularly impressive that he’s maintained a K rate over 7 K/9IP despite throwing so few pitches.

                  I guess the bottom line is that it may not work out for anyone else, but I want some team to try it!

  16. JSquared says:

    10. DEREK JETER!! D E R E K J E T E R Need I say more? NO.

    First place, Cruise Control, Wins are almost automatic… CC and AJ in September October Mode… The Reason they’re here. Defense is Best i’ve seen in a while.

    Further Future… Jairo Heredia only one bad start in Tampa, Montero is resting with an injury, i’m not worried. Austin Jackson going to have time to develop a little more. Banuelos and Noesi in Charleston look good. The Bats are clicking on all levels, JR Murphy loos great.

  17. Kiersten says:

    In other news, 7 games against Baltimore and Toronto coming up. Can we sweep this week away please?

  18. Reggie C. says:

    9.
    The lead is holding.

    I think Aceves is facing a taxing mth ahead. Joba rules are more important than concerns of tiring Ace (harsh but true). Damaso has got to get more game action.

    • Zack says:

      Rosters expand tomorrow, you’re going to have extra arms in the bullpen. No one in the bullpen is going to be overworked.

    • I think Aceves is facing a taxing mth ahead.

      I’m hoping that we have some nice offensive outbursts against some of our weaker opponents on Joba’s starts (like Toronto this week) that allows us to give some low-leverage innings to Albaladejo and Edwar, who should be the other two designated long-men so that Ace doesn’t have to shoulder all the Joba-shadowing himself.

  19. The two people who voted 1 should really own up to it and explain why.

  20. Tom Zig says:

    I understand Kazmir being a significant addition…but Billy Wagner?

  21. Tank Foster says:

    I’d like either 2 fan confidence polls (this season, and the next 5 years), or, if it’s one poll, to say something more specific than “overall future.”

  22. Mattingly's Love Child says:

    I’m sitting on an 8. I went up earlier in the year to a 9, but I think that was premature for me. My confidence for this year is worrisome about Burnett’s hot and cold nature, Pettite’s age (he’s been pitching great, but I’m not 100% confident he can continue this), and the roller-coaster that is Joba. I love the Yankees’ lineup, the defense is much improved, and the bullpen is solid. They definitely match up well against all of the other contenders in those aspects.

    What it comes down to is that the playoffs are a crapshoot. If Lester pitches up to his ability and Burnett lays an egg, that’s a loss. But at the same time, if Burnett is lights out, it’s a win against pretty much anyone. The Yankees have done a very good job of improving their odds in the crapshoot. Having 3 starting pitchers that get strikeouts is a good thing for the postseason. But unless Burnett and Joba start showing more consistency, I’m not sure I can go higher than an 8.

    • Kiersten says:

      Burnett really hasn’t been too “hot and cold” lately. Since mid-June, he’s had 2 bad starts. Granted a bad start could come in October, but I’d say the chances of him pitching like he did in the 15-inning game are far greater than the chances of him pitching like he did last Saturday. Just don’t let him anywhere near the mound at Fenway Park.

      • Mattingly's Love Child says:

        I’m pretty sure Burnett was pretty damn good against the Red Sox at Fenway when he was with the Jays. So I wouldn’t say that. But it would still worry me.

        Granted, I probably wouldn’t worry about Burnett vs the Tigers lineup. More the Red Sox and Angels. Teams that have been hitting well this year or have hit him well this year.

        2 really bad starts in the past month are coloring my judgement, but I’m also not a fan of 12 baserunners in 6 innings against the Jays on 8/12. So 3 out of his last 6 haven’t been great.

        • Kiersten says:

          I definitely agree with you, but those bad starts can happen to any good/great pitcher, you just gotta hope you get lucky and they don’t happen in October.

  23. Jerry Hairston Jr. is going to be a playoff hero this year. He’ll have a few big hits and big plays this October, and he’ll be lionized in the press. Reams of newsprint and gigs of digital video.

    He’s about to be Scotty Bro-ized. You heard it here first.

  24. mryankee says:

    I am still not convinced I think this team is short a relaible starter. Joba to me has been a relative disappointment. I hate to agree with John Kruk but guys like Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw did not need this treatment. They are now entrenched in the starting rotation.

    • pat says:

      Both were professional pitchers by the age of 18. JOBA WAS AN UNHERALDED FRESHMAN IN JUCO. THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE

    • Chris says:

      But they did. They just got those innings out of the way in the minors.

      Here are Kershaw’s innings pitched totals by year:
      37-122-169-153(so far this year)

      Here are Felix’s IP by year:
      69-149-172-191-190-201-185(so far this year)

      The first years aren’t true innings counts for the year, because Felix was in short season ball and probably threw in extended spring training before the season and Kershaw’s don’t count anything he threw in the spring before being drafted.

      The largest innings increase in one year was 47, which is close to where Joba will be this year. You don’t hear about it because it happened in the minors, but every team looks at these issues (well, all the good ones at least).

  25. mryankee says:

    Well I don’t see that a kid who is 21 years old and if I am not mistaken Joba pitched at Nebraska. If this was the case 2 questions why does he resemble a young Jaret Wright lately and why dopitchers who are younger are able to pitch all year without innings limits?

    • pat says:

      I’m sorry that you don’t understand this.. I’ll try and simplify it for you.

      Age 17

      Felix Hernandez-69.0-professional
      Clayton Kershaw-High School
      Joba Chamberlain-Highschool

      Age 18
      Felix Hernandez- 149 IP
      Clayton Kershaw- 37 IP- Professional
      Joba Chamberlain-31.1 (highschool)

      Age 19
      Felix Hernandez-172 ip (Minors+Majors)
      Clayton Kershaw- 131 IP
      Joba Chamberlain- 118 Ip- College

      Age 20
      Felix Hernandez- 191 IP
      Clayton Kershaw- 168.3 IP
      Joba Chamberlain- 89.1 IP(college)… battled arm problems all year.

      Age 21
      Felix Hernandez- 190 IP
      Clayton Kershaw -153 IP.. so far
      Joba Chamberlain – 112 IP (first pro season)

      Age 22
      Felix Hernandez-190.1
      Joba Chamberlain- 100.1 (shoulder injury)

      Age 23
      Felix Hernandez-185.1 so far
      Joba Chamberlain- 133 so far
      —————————————-

      Do you now understand what we are saying. While Joba was in college and having various injury problems, Kershaw and Felix were both professional pitchers logging major innings. They both have been much healthier than Joba and have the benefit of being professional ball players much earlier in their career than Joba.

      And please don’t compare present day Lincecum with Present day Joba. Lincecum is in a much worse division and Lincecum is 2 years older.

  26. mryankee says:

    Tim Lincecum has pitched at least eight shutout innings on six occasions this season-thats an ace that is what Joba should be

  27. misterd says:

    WOULD YOU PLEASE LET GO OF THE BUNTING THING! It was Swisher who failed to execute a play he’d pulled off 4 times this season. Girardi’s call was perfectly defensible, and we have no reason to think the results of that game would have been any better were Swish swinging away. Man I hope one of the circles of hell is reserved for second guessers.

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