Fan Confidence Poll: November 12th, 2012

November 12, 2012 by Mike Axisa 45 Comments

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

Top stories from last week:

Hiroki Kuroda, Nick Swisher, and Rafael Soriano all declined their qualifying offers before Friday’s deadline. The Yankees are now entitled to draft pick compensation if they sign with another team. Kuroda is open to signing elsewhere and the Yankees still haven’t heard from Andy Pettitte about 2013 yet. The Yankees are preparing to offer Mariano Rivera a pay cut.
Robinson Cano is among five MVP finalists, and Scott Boras expects the second baseman to play out 2013 before signing a new contract. Cano and Derek Jeter won the Silver Slugger Awards at their respective positions.
Joakim Soria is willing to work as a setup man for the Yankees. The team had interest in David Ross before he signed with the Red Sox. The Dodgers won the bidding for Korean southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Brian Cashman said there has been some dialogue with Ichiro Suzuki‘s camp, but none with Melky Cabrera, Andruw Jones, and Justin Upton. The latter is on the trade market yet again. The Yankees won’t offer Torii Hunter two years and are seeking an upgrade over Jayson Nix.
The Yankees claimed three players off waivers last week: catcher Eli Whiteside, right-hander David Herndon, and left-hander Josh Spence. Ramiro Pena headlined the crop of players who became minor league free agents.
Four position players top Baseball America’s list of the top ten Yankees prospects.
Tino Martinez left the front office to take over as the Marlins hitting coach.
Michael Pineda has started throwing off flat ground.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

{democracy:269}

http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Drew

Given the team’s current roster construction:
4
No starting RF, no closer, our 1-2 is CC and Hughes. Not good at all. Obviously those holes are going to be filled (giggity) but right now the roster is a mess.

farm system, management, etc.,
2
All the Yankees top Prospects are in A, and there is no immediate help.

= total of 6
- http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger
  
  That’s a poor way of looking at it. It’s mid-November. A lot of teams have holes in their roster right now and it’s not all that relevant at this point in the off-season. There is obviously an intent to fill those those spots before the season gets under way. They may not have the same resources that they did in years past, but you can rest assured that they won’t have Hughes as a #2 and Chris Dickerson starting in RF.
  - YanksFan
    
    I would also like to add that the ZIPS projection of 85 wins as it stands today. That means the NYY are already contenders. Way too many people don’t like to look at other teams roster contruction, salary limitations and farm systems. Please people – learn context.
    - http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Drew
      
      The always seem to take the Zips projections with a grain of salt, but to each their own.
      - YanksFan
        
        I agree to take it with a grain of salt but it is a comparison to other players and teams. Let’s not forget that the NYY had the best record in the AL so there’s a little more leeway for them to drop off and still win the ALE. Baltimore will have a drop off due to their 1-run and Extra Inning magic this year.
  - http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Drew
    
    I completely agree, I just took the poll literally when it says “given the teams current roster construction” I know Dickerson won’t be the RF or Hughes being the #2 but right now they both are, hence the 4 rating on current roster.
    - Cris Pengiucci
      
      So you left out the “and management” part, whose job it is to fill in those gaps as best they can. Or, you just think that Cashman and team just suck (which may be your opinion.
The Real Eddard

I’m at a 5, down from 6 last week because I haven’t seen any movement on the team’s biggest concerns this offseason-

1. Re-sign Ichiro – Best Yankees hitter in the 2012 postseason.
2. Lock up Eduardo Nunez to a long term deal – Get him locked up while he’s still cheap.

And I don’t think fans have come to the realization that you can’t get everything you want. Fans just want stuff, without regard to the budget that the Yankees have set. You can’t re-sign Swisher, Granderson, sign Soria, sign Hamilton, sign Greinke. You probably can’t sign any of those guys given the huge contracts this team has already guaranteed. Soriano was a luxury last season. Mo goes down, w have a luxury ready to step in. The Yankees won’t have those luxuries until the big contracts come off the books in 5-7 years and fans just have to realize that.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Ichiro hit .270 in the playoffs and had nearly half his hits in one extra innings game.
- http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger
  
  Point #2 is absolutely absurd.
  - Get Phelps Up
    
    #TheRealEddardWorld
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  See…..I’m thinking this is the REAL reason we can’t give Robbie Cano the big bucks. We have to save that big megadeal for Eduardo Nunez.
  
  I mean…..what is a fair price for him? Surely he’d laugh off 8/180, wouldn’t he? I mean, he’s EDUARDO NUNEZ.
  
  FUCK! THAT WILL LEAVE NOTHING FOR BIG GAME DAVE PHELPS!
  
  Confidence level: -5
  - http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger
    
    +1
Andy Pettitte’s Fibula

I don’t know who is more delusional, the people who voted 1and 2’s or 9’s and10’s.

I can’t go higher than a 5 or 6 because I think the 2013 team is gonna be a slightly worse version than the 2012 team since Cashman has little to work with in terms of payroll flexibility, tradable assets or major league ready minor leaguers.

Stories about the Yankees not being able to sign Tori Hunter to a 2 year deal unless they can dump payroll first are pretty sobering. I’m thinking the Yankees are gonna take a step back the next 2 years to reset the luxury tax while waiting for the next group of impact prospects to hopefully arrive.
- http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger
  
  I don’t think the Hunter this is all that sobering. It would be one thing if they were in love with a player and didn’t have similar options and refused to go two years, but in this case they could just go a different route and avoid commiting the second year.
- YanksFan
  
  I easily see a 9 because I’m looking at other teams flaws also.
  
  Stories about Hunter are just that stories. Until he signs there will be rumors from the teams and the agents about lenght and AAV of contracts. I have no doubt the 189 is real but who knows what Cash has planned.
  
  So the Yank offense declines. Boo feaking hoo. They were number 2 in MLB by 4 runs I believe. They can drop 75 runs and still be a top 10 offense. Let that sink in. This team will still be one of the better offenses around. They’re also getting Gardner back for the full year which will change their dynamics.
  - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula
    
    Correct me if I’m wrong but according to fangraphs, 10 runs correlates to a little more than 1 win so if the Yankees scored 75 less runs this past year, they would have won about 87 games and finished in 3rd place missing the playoffs all,other things being equal.
    - YanksFan
      
      And how about the Defense improving to save runs. The improved baserunning which will also help the offense some.
      
      How about the Baltimore correction. ALl these other teams are also going to change.
      - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula
        
        Where is the better defense coming from? Gardner in Center will help but I’d expect a fall off at SS with Jeter coming off ankle surgery and another year older plus Martin might leave too.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Gardner compared to 2012 Ibanez and Jones is a pretty big difference. About as big a difference as you can get at any one position.
      - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula
        
        Where exactly is the defense gonna improve other than maybe Gardner in CF? Martin may leave and Jeter is coming off ankle surgery.
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  9’s and 10’s are a bit more comfortable with some messiness than I am, but I can’t ever realistically see voting as low as 1 or 2 with a franchise that’s put a contender on that field every year for pretty much the lifetime of a good chunk of the people commenting here.
- Ted Nelson
  
  They won the most games in the AL in 2012 and made the ALCS… A slightly worse 2012 is still on the very high end of the spectrum.
Robert

I hope Pena and Russo get some interest as minor league free agents, They certainly have paid there dues and maybe a team like Houston can give them a chance!
- Get Phelps Up
  
  So they can prove that they are terrible everyday players as well as terrible backup players?
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    Meh. I don’t think there’s anything there but, if someone wants to give them a shot, more power to them. I have no problem with Kevin Russo’s kids having some extra presents under the tree this year….
    
    ….AAAA veteran presents, that is.
JLC 776

I’m losing a bit of confidence (marking a 4 now) just because it looks like we’re going to be entering a period of restructuring over the next several years – but ultimately I don’t think this is a bad thing.

If we are dismissing two-year contracts due to the 2014 constraint, than it’s hard to see the team getting solidly better through free-agents in the near-term as we flush out the aging contracts. But I’m cool with a couple of years of pain if it means there’s a long-term plan for improvement in affect.
- Andy Pettitte’s Fibula
  
  Agree 100%.
  
  I can live with a small rebuild for the next 2 years, just a little disappointed because by then Jeter, Rivera and Mo probably won’t be around to win 1 more for their swan song.
42isNotMortal

I don’t understand the hesitance on Ichiro. Not only did he bat over .300 in his time in NY last season while being more serviceable as a RF’er than the mild armed and average ranged Swisher, but I’d like to assume he’d be willing to accept a one year, austerity budget complying deal.

Also, when considering his teammates lack of performance, why is a .270 post season BA being stated in a negative tone above? He also had a huge but forgotten 9th inning homer in the fornot comeback against DET.

He swallowed his ego on entrance and played where he was told, while diligently earning a promotion in the batting order.

Anyways, I voted 7. Really enjoy the low level potential studs. Maybe it’s the availability of information (thanks to RAB for me) leading to familiarity, but this group of Austin, Bichette Jr, MW, Sanchez, Heathcott gives me confidence the Yankees can get younger in the coming years while saving money for FA pitching. Anxiously awaiting Kuroda’s and to a slightly lesser degree Andy’s decision.
- http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger
  
  Why rush for Ichiro? It’s early. Find out all of the options first.
- The Real Eddard
  
  I don’t understand it either. Seems like a slam dunk to me. Ichiro is cheap, he brings an element of speed, he’s an above average defender, he’s a contact hitter which Mike said we need more of and he’s a good clubhouse guy.
  
  As I said above, I just don’t think it’s set in yet with fans that the Yankees can’t just sign everybody and their brother like they did in 09. There is a budget and you can’t sign Swisher and Granderson to long term deals. You can’t sign Hamilson, Soria and Greinke. You can’t sign any of those guys because half of the budget is invested in ARod, Jeter, Teixera and CC. They might not even be able to re-sign one of their own, Robbie Cano.
  - Mike HC
    
    I think the hesitancy with Ichiro is because many fans, and possibly the Yanks too, want to see how the trade market develops and maybe can find a more long term solution, rather than falling back on the short term veterans on one year deals.
    
    I’m sure if/when the Yanks decide to go back to the one year veteran well, Ichiro, and Hunter too will be first on the list. But like last year with Damon and Pena, they might pass up on those high end one year guys, and go with the Ibanez’s and Andrew Jones’ even cheaper types.
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      The market hasn’t even shown itself yet. There’s little reason to move on a guy like that.
      
      Of course, since the World Series Champion Red Sox already signed the mighty David Ross, clearly Cashman’s asleep at the wheel again.
- Mike HC
  
  I love RAB too partly due to how much more educated I have gotten on the minor league system, but that familiarity can be dangerous too. Because you start to put expectations on these young guys, when in reality, there is probably a better chance they never make it or become average type players. And the ones that become stars, Cano, might have been under the radar even if you have been following the system.
  
  Some people also get attached to these guys only to see them traded, like Montero. But I don’t really mind that as much, because I still like to root for former Yankee prospects (Kennedy, Jackson, Montero) around the league and makes me more of a fan of the game in general.
Mike HC

Losing Cano after this season would be a major blow, and signing him to a huge mega deal would also probably be a major blow. So most of my confidence is tied to being able to sign Cano to a fair market deal. And since that is far from a certainty, and might even be a long shot, there is some long term concern. I’m still at a 7 though, because I would rather have the Yankees problems than almost any other teams.
- Hubward
  
  This +1
cr1

Mine has been at 6 from September onward and up to now nothing has changed on the team to give reason to move it.
http://Riveraveblues Austinmac

I’m a four. Far too many holes, far too little money, an unwillingness to contract into 2014 and prospects that have to succeed at 2-3 more levels to be MLB ready.

Old, one year contract guys are the future for several years. But, hey it worked pretty well with Raul.
Robinson Tilapia

7, since nothing has happened since the last 7.
OldYanksFan

I am confident (9) because I think Cashman is very smart and because the Steinettes still have the ‘Magic Checkbook’. Does this mean I think that we will be in the PS FOREVER? No. I think that’s an impossile expectation, and between the 2014 budget and our aging long term contracts, I expect some down years.

Getting 2 and maybe 3 relatively high draft picks is great.
My guess is in 2015, Cashman will make a big move. I’m sure he’s planning it now… watching and waiting.

As a fan since ’65, it’s disappointing to see how unrealistic some ‘fans’ expectations are. The CBA is written to keep us from having a dynasty. We have gotten the worst picks in the draft for 16 years now. The payroll has been relatively stable (around $205m) for 5 years now, while other teams are spending much more.

Yet we keep winning somehow.
It’s just a shame our offense totally shit the bed in the PS. We had a much better team than the Tigers.

Really bad luck with Pineda. Had he been as expected/hoped, it really changes our rotation present and future.

Cashman has done a great job.
- CS Yankee
  
  Mostly agree, except that i’m thinking the 200M$ payroll has been in place for at/almost a decade.
  
  The 189 by itself is fine except that the Arod contract in place. Sad to end Mo’s, Jete’s and Pettitte’s career trying to overcome some sad and bad contracts with the high levels of the farm (near) barren.
  
  ManBan, Pineda, etc have not provided any fruit and the FA market is thin with BoSox, Dodgers, Cubs, etc. likely to screw the market up.
  
  A 9 seems high due th the availability and costs limitations of needed FA & the lack of high-end talent within the system…doable, yes…likely, no.
detroit_yankee

FWIW, I’m voting (and have been voting) a 5 – which to me is fair given the issues facing the team from the minor league system through the ML club and extending into 2013 and beyond.

I think we’ll see improvements to the roster as we move through December/January, just as we do every year, but this year appears a bit different in that the “pieces” available on the market are not necessarily the most desirable/realistic fits for the ’13 roster.

Once we see signing momentum, it’ll be much easier to justify higher confidence.

It would be nice to have the rotation questions settled quickly with Kuroda/Pettitte; getting them both back would, for me, be a boost in confidence in the 2013 rotation.
CS Yankee

7…doesn’t seem like 2014 will be a priority to dominate with the;
1) Meh free agents available.
2) The looming salary limits by the main beancounter.
3) The lack of high-end talent in AA/AAA.
4) The garlic-fries being the best food at the park.
5) The RF, C and a couple of SP in question.

I’d be a 10 if all they were handled something like this…
1) Nick inks a 4/60 deal, Zach inks a 1/15 deal.
2) They remember that the quality of the team is priority #1.
3) They are able to develop more quality SP’ers & power bats.
4) They hire the Hells Kitchen dude and upgrade to foods with taste.
5) Russ’, Andy, Hirok, and Swish/Ichi return.
- http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger
  
  Zach? As is Zack Greinke?
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    I was more stuck on Gordon Ramsey.