Nov
19

Fan Confidence Poll: November 19th, 2012

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2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Categories : Polls
  • The Real Eddard

    I have no choice but to drop down to a 3 for the next couple years. They’re going to lose Hiroki to the Dodgers. The Jays will have the best outfield in baseball and have upgraded their pitching staff. And they’ll be getting injured players back. Austerity will kill this team the next couple years because so much is invested in old, declining players. Andy said he was going to decide quick and he hasn’t so there’s hesitation there. Beyond the next couple years we might have a bright future because austerity will force them to play the kids and keep the guys they develop on the farm.

    • You’re not the Real Eddard

      Another imposter. Very funny. You must have a great life. I actually voted a 6 in the poll. I need to see the team get younger overall, and we need Andy and Mo back desperately. Would like to see them do everything they can to move Arod but for better or worse I realize we are probably stuck with him.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        No mention of extending Nunez, Toronto winning the World Series, or making Ichiro king of the Bronx? BOTH IMPOSTERS.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        No mention of extending Nunez, Toronto winning the World Series, or making Ichiro king of the Bronx? BOTH IMPOSTERS.

    • Tim

      How long have you been predicting doom? Over the last 4 years the Yankees have either had the best record in the AL or finished within one game of that. I trust Cash to put a competitive team with depth on the field.

      It’s also a lot more fun to be positive than to predict doom and gloom all the time. The sky isn’t falling.

      The Jays have a nice team on paper right now but they still have holes and no money to fill them. What if Romero doesn’t bounce back? What if Buehrle can only pitch to a 5 era in the AL? What if Melky was entirely a product of the juice? What if Encarnacion fades? What if Bautista loses power due to the wrist injury? It’s not like they can pay more money to fix those mistakes.

      • TomH

        How do you know how much money they have to spend? Their owners are richer than Croesus!

        • Get Phelps Up

          Having money =/= spending money.

    • dalelama

      Given their rotting decaying overpaid choking core and barren farm system I think 6 is an aggressive level of confidence.

  • Cris Pengiucci

    While some teams have made moves early on that seem to have improved them, it’s still too early to judge the offseason. Therefore, no change to me usual 8. After the offseason moves are made, I’ll reassess and see where I feel they stand. How they move forward in the offseason may affect the team’s ability to compete in the short – midterm (’14 & ’15) but I doubt they’ll stick to a strict budget longer term (after they’ve gained back the savings due to the new CBA)if it impacts their ability to compete each season.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Interesting to see how people look at things differently. I wonder if age has anything to do with it.

    • JLC 776

      I agree that it is early, but there has been so much focus on the 189M mark for 2014 (either by the organization or by the press) that I’m starting to feel like expectations are trying to be shaped – that is, that our hopes shouldn’t be raised based on what happens in this and forthcoming offseasons.

      • Cris Pengiucci

        Quite true. However, a period of a year or 2 (maybe 3 if they don’t make any strong one season signings this offseason) where the team isn’t as competitive as we expect, isn’t the end of the world. The “brand” of the Yankees is far too valuable for the Steinbrenners and organization leadership to allow them to become mediocre long term. For them to retain their value, they must field a winning team.

        My belief is that this ownership group will sell the organization in our lifetime, probably within 5 or so years. They have to ensure the team has a strong on-field product to retain its value. They’ll do that after they extract every possible dollar they can, currently by taking advantage of the new CBA. But longer term, the team is worth far more if they stay the Yankees we’ve come to know over the past 17 or so years, as opposed to the Yankees that George bought.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Oh, I don’t think so at all. Yes, I think life is cyclical, and that we will see other ownership in our lifetime. I’d put money on it not being within five years, or even ten.

          I think the Yankees will go through another stretch in which they’re not making the playoffs 17 out of 18 years, and I can honestly say I worried about the middle part of this decade several years ago, but I still think that a lot of things still have to go wrong for this to be right around the corner.

          • Cris Pengiucci

            Well, we disagree here. I don’t see this ownership group having a “win at all costs” philosophy like George did. They’re in it for the money. Therefore, they look at the value of the team as a running entity as compared to the value if sold. Personnally, I think they’ll sell in that 5-10 year window.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              I think what I’m valuing more here is the desire to keep the team within the Steinbrenner family which, while hard to quantify, is something that I think would carry significant weight here. Sure, there’s more detachment here than there is with GS3 but, at this point, the family name is synonymous with the team. I don’t think that’s easy to separate from.

              We’ll see. That will be a strange day. That’s for sure.

              • Cris Pengiucci

                You have a valid point here. I don’t know enough about other Steinbrenner family enterprises to determine (in my mind) if perhaps those have as much or more importance to the family. I have no idea what George’s ship building business is up to and if that’s something the family would like to hang it’s hat on.

                • Francesa

                  The Steinbrenner family sold American Shipbuilding in 1995. The Yankees are its main source of income and wealth. Hank and Jessica run their other business, Kinsman Stables in Ocala, Fla., breeding thoroughbred racehorses.

            • Tim

              “Win at all costs” and throwing money around foolishly like George did, did not always produce a winner. Doing that now seems like it would be even more foolish and less likely to produce a winner since so many of the best players are being locked up for their prime years and aren’t becoming free agents until they are at the back end or about to be past their primes. While still productive you can see that most free agents start a slow (or in some cases sharp) decline where their contracts look bad almost immediately upon signing. NY needs to get away from depending on those types of players to be successful long term.

        • JLC 776

          I’m completely okay with a period of re-building as long as there is a long-range plan in affect. In fact, I think it is necessary – I just hope that we pull the trigger rather than continuing to mortgage the future on the ‘jut win one more’ philosophy. The 2014 budget offers a great chance to do just that.

        • TomH

          All of these branding arguments, arguments from potential sales-value, etc., were all in place in 1964 when CBS bought them; and yet the bottom still fell out. Hell, even George, in the 1980s, was screwing up on these fronts.

          Arguments-from-rationality derive from the contemporary obsession with economics, one of the shallower academic disciplines. Its emphasis on complex mathematics is its method for covering up its shallowness. It has infected everyone’s thinking.

          See, the thing is that sometimes people err, are sometimes mistaken about what their interests are, etc. And often the culprit in such errors is some element of the irrational, which is what we mostly are! The rational is merely pond scum deep.

          We don’t really know too damned much about the Yankees’ owners and what drives them. There’s no real evidence one way or the other about the solidity of their bottom line. If we’re optimistic about the Yankees (6+ on the confidence scale), we think they’ll once again rise to the occasion.

          If we’re -5 (where I am) and natural-born pessimists, we’re likely to operate on the principle that “the worst is always possible.”

          Having been around during a period when Yankee fans were overweeningly confident about the future–that is, in October 1964–I’ve learned my lesson. The worst is…, etc., etc.

          • Ted Nelson

            Besides being mostly bat shit crazy, this is almost all irrelevant. Whether the Yankees win on the field has very little to do with either their owner’s motivations or your irrational pessimism.

            • TomH

              You happy Jacks make me sick. You live in illusion and think you’re rational. You can’t see what’s in front of your eyes: an old, reaallly old team.

              • Ted Nelson

                How many games did the Yankees win in 2012? How did that rank in the AL?

                • Ted Nelson

                  The games are played on the field, so we’ll both get to see how they do.

                  Deciding that every season in 1965 is not in any way rational. Weren’t you saying that all year this season as well?

              • ESPN NY

                Would you like to write for us? You’d be a perfect compliment to Wally Matthews!

      • Ted Nelson

        I think the expectations that the Yankees will sign every big name free agent available is being shaped, not the expectation that they’ll win. The Yankees front office doesn’t control the outcome of games. They’ll put the best team on the field they can given the constraints they face, and will most likely be very competitive the next few years given the core they have and the money they continue to spend.

    • MannyGeee

      “While some teams have made moves early on that seem to have improved them, it’s still too early to judge the offseason. ”

      Also, the 2011 Red Sox say hello. This isn’t the NBA, rings aren’t won in the winter around here.

      And I am going to go out on a limb and say I think the Blue Jays trade was over-rated. They gave up alot of young players for guys who should never have been duct taped together as a team in the first place. Sure, Josh Johnson would be nice if he would stay healthy, Buerhle is good (not great), and Reyes is going to be pretty good until his legs give out (which could be in August, on account of the Astro Turf and all).

      Seriously, They are one bad week away from having traded alot of great young players for John Buck & Emilio Bonaficio.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Possibly. I think Toronto will be more competitive, but will that be good enough to get them past third place? I’m not so sure about that. Baltimore has to regress, and I always count on Tampa being there at the end.

        • MannyGeee

          Toronto will need a little more than the expensive bits from the 2012 Marlins (who couldn’t get it done in a weaker division) to jump the line…

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Redundency time. Still a 7. yes, other teams have made moves, blah blah blah. They didn’t make the ALCS and finish first. I realize the Tigers got Torii Hunter but there’s more than one way to skin a cat there.

    They’re going to field a team that’s going to be there in the end next year. End of story, at least to me.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Robinson, Please see my note to you at the end of last tnight’s Open Thread. Mike Axisa has my contact info.

      We obviously agree on next season for the Yankees. The question in my mind becomes how well Cashman can do his job for the ’14 & ’15 seasons.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        I will now.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Just got in touch with Mike as well.

          • MannyGeee

            i sense collusion…

            • Cris Pengiucci

              We’re comparing notes and trying to infulence ownership of the team on how to handle the future. :-)

            • Robinson Tilapia

              I sense no use of the tried and true “friend jjyank on Facebook, then find me” method. :)

              • jjyank

                Heh, whatever works.

                • Cris Pengiucci

                  I remember reading about that method some time back, but couldn’t recall the details. And it would have been tough to dig up now. :-)

                  • jjyank

                    That’s how Plouffy found Tilapia. I told him to find me, and at that point, Tilapia kind of sticks out in a list of my facebook friends haha.

                    • Robinson Tilapia

                      Translation: I’m the only guy on his page holding a kid in his profile pic.

                    • jjyank

                      Yeah. You’re also the 3rd oldest person on my friends list, after my parents.

                    • Robinson Tilapia

                      I’d say I was going to go shoot myself after hearing that, but I know that’s not a universal. I don’t think I’m the third oldest person on some friend lists of actual teenagers.

          • Cris Pengiucci

            Thanks. And, Thanks Mike!

  • http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Drew

    With some of the moves made by AL East competitors and fewer potential options left on the free agent market I am down from last weeks 7 to a 6. The offseason is still very young, and there are a ton of potential moves to be made, but it is not looking good at the moment.

  • http://www.twitter.com/matt__harris Matt :: Sec110

    6…a lot riding on Kuroda.

    • JLC 776

      Kuroda would be nice but there is no guarantee that he will be the same pitcher next year. I’ve had the ‘get Kuroda and Pettitte and hope one of them is good’ philosophy for next year, but if we only get one it isn’t the end of the world.

      I trust Cash will find another scrap heap reclamation project to turn into gold. He seems to do that every year.

      • MannyGeee

        Is Andy the scrap heap guy from 2012? Or are you counting Phelps as that guy?

        Agreed though, this team seems to find a way to polish turds into usable turd-diamonds year after year. Maybe its due to the talent around them or maybe the “bench/reclamation guy for the Yankees” role is a simpler one to succeed in than being “the guy in Kansas City”, but year over year they find someone to do this well.

        • JLC 776

          It really is remarkable. I don’t know if Cash deserves the credit or someone else, but going back for about a decade now there is always one low-risk, high-reward guy who seems to break out in pinstripes. And I know every team makes these kinds of moves, but empirically it feels like a higher percentage of them pay dividends for us.

          I don’t even question some of those moves now; I hit the ‘I believe’ button and watch a guy like Kuroda make magic.

          • dalelama

            Only one championship in ten years should put a damper on your homer glee.

            • Ted Nelson

              How many teams are there in MLB. You might want to do your math again…

            • Get Phelps Up

              It would be zero if it weren’t for A-Rod.

      • Ted Nelson

        Nothing is guaranteed (and not even close to guaranteed with Ps), but after putting up similarly strong performances year-after-year in the NL and now AL… it’s relatively likely that Kuroda is the same guy.

  • Gio

    Nolasco is not a free agent, correct?

    • Leo

      Correct. He’s making $11.5 MM in 2013 and he will be a free agent for the 2014 season.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Yeah my mistake.

  • Murderers’ Row Boat

    4. The Yankees are getting older while the rest of the AL East is getting better. The ghost of the boss lives in the 29m we are paying A-Rod.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      THERE’S A HORCRUX IN ALEX’S CONTRACT!!!!

      • Preston

        We need to stab it with a Basilisk fang!

  • Yank the Frank

    I went down to a seven from eight. There just doesn’t seem to be a lot of free agents out there that fit our needs and our trade chips don’t seem too impressive.
    However, the Yankees are the Yankees and I expect them to be competitive. I’m banking on Ninja Cash coming up with something.

    • dalelama

      The barren farm system dampens the outlook also.

  • MannyGeee

    Its gonna take a lot more than relocating the 3rd, 4th and 5th best players from Miami to Toronto and Torii Hunter doing his best Delmon Young impression to shake me.

    Still an 8, staying hopeful that Hiroki and/or Andy come back to us. The loss of Mr Swisher bums me out, thinking you can still get 2/3 of his production on the open/trade markets.

    3rd year improvements and health from Nova should be enough to offset Phelps’ inevitable sophomore slump, and the bullpen is still an area of relative strength.

    And also, A-Rod/Cano/Jeter/Tex will all come into the spring in the “greatest shapes of their lives”. Because everyone always does (non Joba-Hughes-Pineda edition, of course)

    So for all of these pipe dreams, he’s to hoping for a fun Winter Meeting season….

    • jjyank

      Agreed. It’s not even December yet, there’s still a lot of off season to go. Besides, after the 2011 Red Sox, you’d think that people would remember that the game of baseball is played and won/lost on the field, not off season moves in November.

      • MannyGeee

        Larry Luccino takes offense. and so does this guy:

        http://nesn.com/2011/01/2011-r.....e-history/

        And before you ask, yes I do have this article bookmarked. and YES I do read it damn near weekly, and HELL YES I smile all the way through it.

        • MannyGeee

          By the way:

          “And Dice-K might be the best No. 5 starter ever. The Japanese right-hander is the only pitcher in the rotation who’s never been an All-Star, but this could be the year he ends that streak.”

          hehehe

        • jjyank

          It is pure gold. And the sillyness of such an assertion should (in theory) provide people here with some perspective. I honestly don’t get people dropping their confidence from week to week just because the Yankees haven’t made a move yet.

        • JLC 776

          This article is the gift that keeps on giving.

        • Get Phelps Up

          He was right when he said “The 2011 Red Sox could accomplish a feat that has never been done.”

          I just don’t think he meant blowing a 9 game lead in the final month of the season.

    • dalelama

      Pass the bong over here!!!!

  • Jersey Joe

    I think I might get some hate for this, but I want Nova for Duda and C prospect.

    Thoughts?

    • Francesa

      Have you ever seen Duda “play” the outfield? I’d rather re-acquire Shelly Duncan and make him swing left handed.

    • Ted Nelson

      I don’t think Duda is necessarily a bad idea for the bench, but I would not give up Nova for him. Not close. Since he’s dirt cheap I’m not sure the Mets would be motivated to move him at a fair price. Something like Chase Whitley is what I’d call a fair price for a guy who is below replacement as an everyday player.

  • Robert

    If Soriano signs for 2 years with the Yanks its because no one wants him for 3 years and no one will pay him more than the Yanks…
    Martin and Ibanez one year older and one year slower WHY?

    My sense is the Steinbrenner family is selling the team.. Today they cash in on the YES network and sell the team in 2014….

    Hal does not own the team outright, he is one of 4 so he gets outvoted on spending hence the 2014 189M cap….

    • Francesa

      How are they cashing in on the YES network when Newscorp is buying the 49% NOT owned by the Steinbrenners?

      • Robert

        It put a value on there shares and Newscorp is purchasing the 495 with an agreement already to buy the rest at a later date?2014?

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Which part of your ass was that just pulled out of?

  • OldYanksFan

    I’m never sure what ‘confidence’ means.
    Confidence shouldn’t change on a weekly or monthly basis.
    I am however, very confident in Brian Cashman.
    I think he does a great job under the most difficult circumstances

    The reality is, we can’t make the PS EVERY year forever.
    Somewhere in here, we will need a year or 3 to retool/rebuild.
    Because of the current payroll, and the ARod, CC and Teix commitments, we all knew that we would have some down years coming up.

    The 2014 budget resets the Tax clock. It is a smart move that has to be done, even if it means a down year. That just might be the way it has to go. But I have faith that Cashman and the Steinettes will get us back to the best possible possible position ASAP.

    They want to Win, are commited to Win, have a smart Brian Cashman, and a ton of money.

    So I am VERY confident in the organization.
    But winning EVERY YEAR may simply be an unrealisiric expectation.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I treat this all very unscientifically but, yes, barring some seismic (in baseball terms) event, the drops of two or three points from week to week do crack me up, as well as anyone who honestly votes below a five on this franchise. That’s just me, though.

      I can do a point up or down just based on my overall mood, but I think I’ve been at between a 7 and 9 for most of my time here.

      It’s all for fun.

      I’d watch for Darren and a shank with the 189 mil comment.

      • MannyGeee

        Agreed, I tend to stay at an 8, except that week Mo went down and that month that the Yankees were beating the NL East like Ike beat Tina.

    • http://www.nyc.gov/html/nycha/html/home/home.shtml The Big City of Dreams

      I am however, very confident in Brian Cashman.

      ——————-

      I’m not that confident

    • Ted Nelson

      Strong points.

  • Preston

    I usually agree with the moves the Yankees make. However, the disinterest they are showing in Swisher puzzles me. I understand that we can’t afford to retain all three of Cano/Granderson/Swisher in 2014, but if we are going to let one of them walk it should be Granderson. Curtis has been the more productive player over his career, due to his athleticism. But his athleticism is deteriorating, he is no longer the defender or base-runner he once was. If he is forced to move to a corner where his offense plays down he will be devalued even more. Nick Swisher is the better offensive player, he walks more, he K’s less, and he has very good power if not elite power like Granderson. He is the better bet going forward. And since Granderson will hit FA still claiming to be a CF with elite power he will probably command more dollars too. It makes far more sense to retain Swisher now, and field an elite offense for one more year and then let Granderson walk next year, than to sign some scrub like Ichiro or Raul and then shell out huge dollars for Granderson next year. It makes us better next year, and gives us less risk going forward.

    • Ted Nelson

      I have no idea if they are interested in Swisher, but if they are I think it’s in their best interest not to say so. See what his market value is, and then decide. Another bidder–the Yankees–is only going to raise his price. Without disrespecting him, I’d imagine they told him to go out, see what he can get on the market, and then let them know. I’d also guess what they thought he was worth is well under what he thinks he’s worth, hence why a market price would be a fairer point of judgement.

      You’re also assuming that they will retain one of the two. They might judge Granderson on his own merits next off-season even if they let Swisher walk.

      • Preston

        You’re absolutely right on both points. I hope they are interested in Swisher, and if they are just waiting for him to start serious negotiations to swoop in at the last minute than Cash has got the worlds best poker face. The Granderson part I’m basing on the fact that Cashman said some time during mid-season that re-signing Granderson and Cano (he left out Swisher) was important going forward. And to be honest before this season I would have agreed that Granderson was a better investment. But his declining fielding and his increasing K rate have me worried about a long term deal, maybe their thinking has changed as well. I don’t know, I’m just ranting on the internet.

  • cr1

    Haven’t dropped, been a six for two and a half months at least.

    When something changes on the team, my number will change if the new factor is significant. Until something significant happens, no reason to bounce from number to number.