Fan Confidence Poll: November 26th, 2012

November 26, 2012 by Mike Axisa 91 Comments

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

Top stories from last week:

The Yankees made their first major move of the offseason prior to Thanksgiving, re-signing Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal worth $15M. He took less money to return to New York. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte could make a decision about 2013 this week.
Ichiro Suzuki is willing to wait for the Yankees to take care of other business before approaching them about a new contract. The team has not made Russell Martin an offer and there is nothing new to report with Mariano Rivera. The Yankees have “significant interest” in re-signing Raul Ibanez.
News Corp. agreed to purchase 49% of the YES Network from various non-Yankees investors, and the deal should close by the end of the calendar year. The agreement will put $420M in the team’s pocket over the next three years and keep the club on YES through 2042.
Among the players the Yankees were rumored to have interest in last week were Giancarlo Stanton, Jeff Keppinger, and Stephen Drew. The team is expected to bottom-feed for rotation depth later in the offseason.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

{democracy:271}

Cris Pengiucci

Gotta love the “1”s and even the “4”s “5”s are somewhat questionable in my mind. Would love to hear explanations from folks voting that low, even once.
- Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
  
  Same thing with the 10’s too. One side is blindly optimistic and the others are on the ledge.
  - jjyank
    
    True, though in this particular poll, the latter are more numerous.
  - Cris Pengiucci
    
    I know Ted Nelson has chimed in with his rational for voting a 10. Something along the line of being one of the top 3 teams within the league in terms of on-field ML players, Front office, scouting and farm. While you can argue his rankings, his justification fits.
    - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
      
      Voting a 10 is just blind optimism.
      
      They are obviously a top franchise but have major problems on the horizon for the next 2-3 years at least.
      - Ted Nelson
        
        Maybe try learning something about my rationale instead of assuming you are right.
        
        The only way a ranking makes sense is relative to other franchises. For two reasons. 1. They play other teams. How good they are is only important in how many games they will win against other teams. 2. What sense does it make to say I expect the Yankees to win more games over whatever time period, but I will give them a lower grade than Team X that I expdct to win less games? I don’t see any sense in that.
        
        Therefore, I rank them relative to other teams. Do the Yankees have questions going forward? Of course. What team doesn’t though? I not only have as much confidence in the current roster as any in MLB, I also have as much faith in the organization’s ability to answer questions going forward as any org. That is not blind optimism, it’s based on their track record compared to the rest of the league.
        
        That doesn’t mean you have to vote a 10. Sometimes I vote 9. I break the league into deciles (every one doesn’t have to be 3 teams as teams might be grouped together), though, and ask myself which decile the Yankees fall into. It’s usually the top one. What three orgs do you have more confidnce in going forward? What 6 orgs?
        
        http://www.yankeenumbers.com Mr. Sparkle
        
        I suppose it’s all relative. You see it as a “ranking” against other teams. I see it as a level of confidence. When it’s viewed that way, it’s possible that no team in MLB ranks a ten or even arguably a nine. To me, that means you have complete confidence that your team is going to the World Series as things stand today with 10 meaning there’s no doubt in your mind they’re going to win the World Series.
        
        On the flip side, a one or two means you see nothing but disaster on the horizon. In other words, as this Yankee team stands right now, ranking the “confidence” the way I do, I can’t see anyone voting anything other than between three and eight. I can’t say they’re a lock for the World Series, but I can’t see them being a 90 loss team.
        
        In addition to explaining how you’ve reached the number you have, you’ve also displayed that the poll is inherently flawed since everyone has a different way of approaching the question. It’s way too open ended to be making declarative statements about why someone is right or wrong about how high or low they vote.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Agree that without a standard scale there’s not much to take from it.
        
        I do consider it a confidence rating as well. I just feel that confidence in the Yankees is only relevant relative to other teams, as explained, because of basically arbitrage between grades. I can see arguing that no team is a 10 and a bunch are grouped around 8 or whatever. I disagree, though, especially with basically saying no team can ever be a 10.
        
        Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
        
        Texas, St Louis, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Washington, Los Angeles all rank pretty close to the Yankees at this point so there are 7 franchises that you could make a reasonable case are in better shape than the Yankees moving forward.
        
        Again, just like you were told the other day by Vicki I believe, try not coming off like an obnoxious condescending prick and maybe I and others would pay heed to your position.
        
        TomH
        
        Actually, he can’t help the condescension. It’s out of control in him.
        
        As for his “rationale,” there is no evidence he knows enough about front offices, scouting deployments, etc., across the American League to justify his alleged criteria for determining the number he selected. It’s all bluff.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Yeah, I don’t follow MLB at all.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        I can sit here and poke holes in all of those teams. That is my whole point, that you are too stubborn to bother to understand. Reasonable people can disagree. I specifically said you don’t have to agree with my 10. If you think that those are better organizations that the Yankees, you can rank them higher. I disagree, and it it not blind optimism. I can substantiate my position. Saying that it’s blindly optimistic just exposes your own ignorance. Try asking why people voted a certain way. You’re probably not going to get a reasonable answer from someone who voted a 1 for a consistent 95 win team, but for what is obviously a very well run organization (that benefits from location and historical factors, of course) 10 is not unreasonable.
        
        I am condescending because you come across as an ignorant asshole. Notice that I treat what I consider to be serious commenters with respect. Your comments are generally irrational, so I don’t take you seriously.
        
        G
        
        The Rangers and Giants are the only ones with immediate futures I see as possibly brighter, and even they face problems. The former is losing their headline player and likely another player who carried them into the World Series in 2011, while the latter, despite winning a World Series, still faces the problem of their once in a generation ace falling off a cliff while. Now they’re depending on Vogelsong to keep up the pace and Zito to not outright suck again.
        
        Every team has issues, we just tend to magnify ours. The offense will continue to be among the best in the league and if we sign Pettitte, we will, for now, have one of the best rotations in the league, as well as possibly the best bullpen. There are issues going forward, but also bright stars getting closer and closer in the minors. The Yankees will address their needs in one way or another, and depending on a youth influx or using them in a trade are two very realistic possibilities.
        
        Step away from the cliff everyone.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        Agreed. If you look out a few years into the future, especially, every team has nothing but question marks (some have bigger ones than others, of course). Even over any one season, though, most teams have quite a few.
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    I’d rather deal with the blindly optimistic person than the one who thinks the sky is falling all the tim.
    - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
      
      That’s fine, just opposite ends of the spectrum of lunacy. You can pick whichever one you prefer.
      
      I prefer a more rational middle ground.
      - Robinson Tilapia
        
        I’m not getting into an argument about this, but we’re talking about a franchise that’s won 27 championships and, other than 2008, made the postseason every year since half the folks on here can remember. I could see a “10” based alone on the fact that no franchise is more intent and equipped on putting a winner on the field than this one.
        
        Putting “10” and “1” on equal footing, to me, would mean having a 5″ as middle ground. I can’t imagine believing that this franchise would half a 50/50 chance of either winning it all or completely having the bottom fall out. This is why my own personal baseline is a “7,” which, to me, acknowledges both a strong confidence in the franchise while also acknowledging that there’s always work to be done. A “1” is much farther away from that than a “10,” so I’d find the “10” to be more plausible.
        
        Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
        
        I agree a 1 is far more out of line than a 10 given the Yankees recent history.
        
        It also depends on confidence in what endpoint you’re discussing.
        
        If it’s confidence on the Yankees winning 90+ games and making the playoffs, I’d be at a 9-10 consistently.
        If it’s confidence in the Yankees winning the WS which is how interpret it, I’d have to say a 7.
        
        Robinson Tilapia
        
        Sure, and I don’t feel like I can ever truly make a prediction as far as what’s going to happen in the postseason, so I’m working from a nebulous “strong contender” place. That’s probably spilitting hairs from what you’re saying, though.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        So the Yankees have a 70% chance of winning the WS? Guess we know who the blind optimist is.
      - Ted Nelson
        
        You are not on a rational middle ground, though. You are only calling a 10 blindly optimisic out of blind ignorance.
        
        Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
        
        10 is blindly optimistic. Middle ground I believe is somewhere between 6.5-8.0.
        
        Ted Nelson
        
        That’s what you believe. In large part because of the scale you are using. I disagree, and not because I’m optimistic.
    - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
      
      In my opinion, this site needs some from each group.
      
      All ledge jumpers constantly crying about how Girardi, Cashman and the players suck whenever the Yankees lose a game or all blind optimists circle jerking each other while proclaiming how great the Yankees are would be a boring read.
      - Cris Pengiucci
        
        How true. I do like to see both sides (which is why I ask for explanations for voting a “1”). Sometimes at least part of their reasoning makes sense.
      - Ted Nelson
        
        When you have a team that makes the playoffs every year the “rational middle ground” should be rather optimistic.
- MannyGeee
  
  having read the explanations for some of those “1’s”… you really dont want to read those. Painful.
http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Drew

I voted a 6. Still have some work to do to shore up the rotation/bench/RF/BP etc.

They’ll get there though.

I am a little concerned about Kuroda going into next year due to the career high workload and age, but he was the #1 guy I hoped the Yankees retained, so there is that.
MB923

If you haven’t heard, the Rays just gave Evan Longoria a 6 year/$100 million extension

He will be on the Rays (barring a trade) until 2022
- nsalem
  
  That’s a lot of money for someone who has missed more games than A-Rod the last two years.
  - King of Fruitless Hypotheticals
    
    They’ve played the same number of games over the last 3 years…
    - RetroRob
      
      …which should be quite concerning for the Rays. If a player in his mid-20s has a compare point with an injury-prone A-Rod in his late 30s, then that’s a problem.
- Francesa
  
  He’ll be finishing up that contract in Las Vegas.
  - MannyGeee
    
    That’s funny, because I was going to say that was going to be a whole lot of Longoria for Tampa, but we are not even sure there would be that much Tampa for baseball!
Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

I’m at a 7, up a point from last week since they signed Kuroda.

They should be a solid contender in 2013 but I’m still very concerned about 2014 for reasons discussed ad nauseam around these parts.
- Ted Nelson
  
  I would say there’s hardly any discussion at all, actually. 90% people freaking out because uncertainty carries risk. Not much rational discussion.
- Ted Nelson
  
  I would say there’s hardly any discussion at all, actually. 90% people freaking out because uncertainty carries risk. Not much rational discussion. Uncertainty creates opportunity as well as risk.
Reggie C.

Voted a 7. Though it feels too strong a grade given the team hasn’t “upgraded” anything and is likely facing “downgrades” once Swisher officially signs elsewhere. I was pleasantly surprised Kuroda chose not to drag out negotiations. That’s premium money Kuroda is receiving, but even with a likely drop-off in performance, Kuroda at least serves peace of mind right now.

I’m just ignoring the Stanton trade talk (won’t happen!!). It does fans no good to dream that craziness.

I just want to see what’s left in Teixeira’s talent bag if he’s given 600 Plate Appearances. The man absolutely must stay healthy and at least hit for consistent power.
- Ted Nelson
  
  In the four years prior to 2012 his minimum PAs was 684.
Mike HC

I’m around 7-8. In the short term future Yanks will probably be in the championship mix, but not the favorites to win it all.

Longer term future looks inevitably bleaker with Jeter, Mo and Pettitte eventually calling it quits.
- Cris Pengiucci
  
  Yeah, I’m at an 8. I’m a bit less concerned than you about Pettitte and Mo leaving (I’m optimistic that someone can fill Mo’s shoes, at least for a few seasons and I also think non-#1 starting pitching can be found/developed to replace Pettite), but if Jeter doesn’t continue to produce offensively or if he retires after ’14, there will be a definite gap that won’t be easy to fill, especially as ARod continues to age and with Teixiera not producing as hoped.
  
  I think they’ll contend in ’13 and probably ’14, but ’15 may see a decline. At the point, they can spend again and I believe they will, so ’16 and beyond should bring more competitive teams, and the lessons they learn working within a budget should help them remain competitive long term.
  - Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
    
    I think 2014 is the problem year.
    
    They’ll need to likely replace their number 2 and 3 starters (Pettitte and Kuroda) 2 corner outfielders, a closer and possibly their franchise 2nd baseman all on a budget without a stellar free agent pool or major league ready minor leaguers.
    
    You also don’t know what you’ll get out of Jeter and A-rod and to a certain extent, Teixiera who has been in a steady decline.
    
    If they can blow out the budget in 2015 plus add some of the A-AA level talent that should be ready, they could be in good shape.
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      Yeah, I agree it’s the toughest year to plan out. 2013 isn’t a picnic either if the focus is on players accepting one-year deals, but it is what it is.
      - Cris Pengiucci
        
        I’m pretty sure that to gain the most financially, the Yankees need to stay below $189MM for ’14 & ’15 (someone please correct me if I’m wrong). That being the case, I can see ’15 being even tougher than ’14, although neither will be a cake walk. Then, with all the new money coming in, for the ’16 season they should be able to augment what they have and focus on building the “next dynasty”. As I said earlier, the lessons learned during the next few seasons may serve them well as they build that team.
        
        Havok9120
        
        You’re correct on the financial side. Its ’14 AND ’15 if they want the full revenue sharing benefits.
  - Mike HC
    
    Yea, I’m most concerned with losing Jeter, and Pettitte a close second. And I have utmost confidence in their ability to rebuild on the fly, but having confidence and actually doing it are a different story.
dalelama

With their rotting aging choking overpaid core, toxic long term immovable contracts, and barren farm system, I think 6 is being very generous.
- jjyank
  
  Cris Pengiucci, you were looking for someone to explain a 1? There ya go.
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  Isn’t it just generously assumed around here than no one asked you?
- Cris Pengiucci
  
  So, dalelama, you feel there is no chance of the ’13, ’14, ’15 teams (or beyond) of making the playoffs? If they have a strong chance (which I believe they do, at least in ’13 and then again once they reap the financial benefits available due to the new CBA), that makes them one of the top 10 teams in MLB. At a minimum, that would put my vote at a 6.67, rounding up to a 7. I happen to feel they’re slightly better than a 7. You honestly feel they’re not a top 10 organization overall in baseball?
  - dalelama
    
    Cris I gave them a six. My 6 is based on the odds of them winning the World Series in the upcoming year. I have been a consistent 6 or 7 since the heart and soul of the 09 Team (Damon, Matsui, and Posada) either left or began to seriously decline as in the case of Posada. With the stench of Aroid and his contract permeating the organization combined with a barren farm system due to low picks and trades the future is bleaker than it has been since the early nineties.
    - Cris Pengiucci
      
      A six is a reasonable vote, but as I stated, I’d go a 7 if I felt they’d make the playoffs. My opinion. I feel they’ll have a strong team in ’13 with the potential to win the division again and do well in the playoffs, so I go up to an 8 (I believe Mo and Pettite will re-sign before Christmas and a suitable OF & C will be found).
      
      I definitely see the potential for a rough year or 2 in ’14 & ’15, but expect the team to start spending again (and more efficiently & effectively) after that.
      - dalelama
        
        Your standard of success (making the playoffs) is lower than mine (winning the World Series) so I can see why your score would be more optimistic.
    - jjyank
      
      Considering the type of comments you spew, I am shocked that you vote that high.
      - dalelama
        
        I just state the facts and if the homers get their panties in a knot so be it.
        
        Robinson Tilapia
        
        You’re a regular Chris Wallace indeed.
        
        jjyank
        
        Whatever helps you sleep better at night.
        
        http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
        
        The next fact you state will be the first.
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      I agree with those who are just fine with you being a six despite all the piss and vinegar you throw on here. It’d be nice if you fucking sounded like it every now and then.
      - dalelama
        
        The pollyannas on this site only appreciate tough love. It is the only thing that can penetrate their rose colored glasses.
        
        Robinson Tilapia
        
        I’m now stuck here as far as diagnosis goes. I could easily go the personality disorder route with you with this clearly inflated sense of self. However, when this occurs and its intensity definitely merits some further examination.
        
        Do you mind answering some questions as to how often you feel like your “tough love” makes a difference on here? Is this usually combined with visits to tattoo parlors and assorted whores? Do you not sleep for days at a time, then just crash?
        
        Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)
        
        Now he’s Bipolar?
        
        Robinson Tilapia
        
        Potential rule-out.
- DC
  
  Meanwhile at the Legion of Doom…
  - Road Warrior Animal
    
    Tell em, Hawk!
  - Havok9120
    
    This is a wonderful reference.
MannyGeee

I am actually down this week to a 7, but mostly because I read on MLBTR that Swisher’s people have been talking to the Red Sox.

Not that I thought Swisher was coming back, I just don’t want to listen to these dong bags around my office for the next 5 summers tell me about how Swish is “da best rite-fieldah since Jay-Dee Dahruuu”.

Also, i might be high as a kite on a turkey-giblet-gravy-stuffing-pumpkin pie cocktail, but I feel like Boston is picking people to target based on the Yankees needs. catchers, outfielders, and utility infielders? They do not have a starting 1B or SS, but they have 3 catchers on their 25 man and are talking to Napoli? WTF???
Robinson Tilapia

Let’s pretend this is all scientific and shit and say I’m at a 7.3, which is .3 above my baseline 7 for Kuroda’s resigning, and that we’ll continue to incrementally add as Pettitte, Mariano, and, yes kids, Martin are brought back. We’ll consider going above 8 when we see what the other offseason moves are. I don’t see myself moving below baseline anytime soon unless something completely unpredictable happens.
- dalelama
  
  If you baseline is 7 your current score should be lower as they as now weaker cause Swisher and Soriano are gone and Mamma Cass is a year older as are Tex and Jeter.
  - Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM)
    
    Yeah…cause Soriano isn’t being replaced by the greatest single inning pitcher in the history of baseball. Oh wait, he absolutely is. Also, if your boy “Mamma Cass”/”Ol’ Purple Lips”/”Mr.Choke” and what ever nickname you have for him puts up a triple slash equivalent to his average since 2010 we will win 90+ games and the division. (Of course all of this is on speculation that both Mo and Andy resign.)
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      Not that I’m old enough, but I’ve at least seen Monterrey Pop a few times. Not a fan of Mama Cass. Definitely lean towards Janis in the “female rockers dead before my parents were even married” category.
    - dalelama
      
      Soriano isn’t being replace by Mariano since they both were on the 2010 and 2011 squad so as usual your point is pointless. No matter how you slice it Sherlock the team at this point is weaker without Soriano. Also winning the division isn’t my objective winning the WS is. Stop acting like a Mets fan it isn’t becoming.
      - Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM)
        
        I’m talking about this past season, who was the closer? Soriano. Who is (hopefully)going to be the closer next season? Rivera. Did we have both for any extended period of time last season? No, therefore my logic, and the logic of basically every sane Yankee fan at this point is that Rivera will be replacing Soriano. Would it be stronger with both of them, like they had in 2010? Probably, but the difference between a very good set up man and a great set up man is negligible at best. As for wanting to win the World Series, sure that’s a great goal, but any and every sport becomes just as much about luck come the post season as it does talent.
        
        dalelama
        
        As Mo won’t do better next year than Soriano did this year again your point is pointless. The team is weaker without Soriano even assuming Mo regains his past dominance. Nice try though.
      - Ted Nelson
        
        Nothing more entertaining than someone without a clue who has blind confidence in themselves
        
        dalelama
        
        Ted I will give you credit for your self awareness.
  - Robinson Tilapia
    
    How about I decide what my score is?
    - dalelama
      
      Sure irrationality is allowed.
      - jjyank
        
        Clearly, since you’re still around.
RetroRob

An 8, as I have been every time I’ve taken the poll.

Always room for improvement, always a potential concern, but the present and future is generally always bright in Yankee land.
Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM)

7, When Mo and Andy resign I’ll probably bump it up to an 8 and stay there unless Cash-Ninja does something crazy and we get a Christmas gift of Stanton, Upton, or Headley for Christmas…then it’d be a 9.
- YanksFanInBeantown
  
  Anything less than Upton, Stanton AND Headley is unacceptable.
  
  All 3 for Melky and IPK. Get it done, Cash.
JLC 776

As long as everyone is somewhat consistent in their own methodology of grading, it really doesn’t matter what the individual numbers are – it’s the aggregate motion of the historical graph that shows the interesting data.

2012 has a lot of chaotic peaks and valleys, but the overall trend has been somewhat negative. I would even say that the volatile motion this year speaks volumes as to the overall true confidence of the fan base.
Long-Past-His-Day-Rod

6, based on the following criteria:

– As of right now, they will be worse in RF.
– As of right now, they have no C. Martin probably re-signs, and he’s a good defensive C, but his all or nothing plate approach won’t help in the playoffs when it matters.
– Alex and Tex will both have worse years, many might disagree, I am 100% confident in this statement. If I prove to be incorrect, which I won’t be, I will accept being mercilessly berated.
– I think Jeter might be even more of a defensive question mark, although I think he’ll still hit.

All that being said, a “6” for me means next year they will make the playoffs and exit in the ALDS. 2014 and 2015 will be worse. Maybe 1 out of Sanchez/Williams/Austin/Heathcott pans out if they’re lucky.
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  At first glance, I read this and go “why is he talking about Curtis Martin?”
  - Long-Past-His-Day-Rod
    
    Haha, whoops. Probably could’ve formatted that better.
    - Robinson Tilapia
      
      It’s possible, however, that Curtis Martin could, in fact, help make his old team better.
      - Long-Past-His-Day-Rod
        
        I might even go as far as to change that “possible” to “probable”
VaYankeeFan

I gave them a six, based on what I see righ now. Andy has not signed, Mo has not signed (but will), no real replacement for NS yet, catching is a big question, how will Jeter look in April, will ARod & Tex rebound and what “deals” will the Yankees do? I see the O’s & J’s being real, which is not to say the Yanks can’t handle either of them. My biggest worry is not so much in 2013, but in the years that follow? I’m not real happy with some of the news I see coming out of the Yankee camp! But, this is why we have the off-season!
Get Phelps Up

dalelama was on a roll today.
- dalelama
  
  There are many on this site who just can’t handle the facts on the ground due to blind faith but then that is why they are called fans, short for fanatics.