Archive for 2014
Michael Pineda is very familiar with the Tampa area. Big Mike spent the better part of the 2012-13 seasons at the team’s Spring Training complex while rehabbing from his shoulder surgery, so pitching in Tropicana Field — which is really across the bridge in St. Petersburg, not Tampa — should feel like a homecoming. Will his teammates actually score runs for him? The magic 8 ball says … “Don’t count on it.” So there you have it. Here is the Rays lineup and here is the Yankees lineup:
- CF Jacoby Ellsbury
- SS Derek Jeter
- LF Brett Gardner
- 1B Brian McCann
- 3B Chase Headley
- DH Chris Young
- RF Ichiro Suzuki
- C Frankie Cervelli
- 2B Brendan Ryan
RHP Michael Pineda
It’s a typical Florida day down in St. Pete, meaning hot, humid, and rainy. Good thing the Trop has a roof, I guess. Tonight’s game is scheduled to begin a little after 7pm ET and you can watch on My9. Enjoy.
Injury Updates: Mark Teixeira is out with soreness in his surgically repaired wrist and there is no timetable for his return at this point … obviously Frankie Cervelli (migraines) is feeling better and has been cleared to play … in case you missed it earlier, Masahiro Tanaka is tentatively scheduled to return to the rotation on Sunday.
After more than two months on the shelf, Masahiro Tanaka will return to the rotation this weekend. Joe Girardi announced that his ace right-hander is tentatively scheduled to start this coming Sunday. He will be limited to 70-75 pitches. The Yankees will have to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate Tanaka coming off the 60-day DL, but that’s no big deal. You won’t even notice Chaz Roe is gone.
Tanaka threw 65 pitches during a five-inning simulated game on Monday. He did get knocked around a little bit but the most important thing is that he came through it healthy. Tanaka, who played catch today, said he feels good and has no problems with his elbow. The partially torn ligament hasn’t bothered him for a few weeks now. He is rusty, though that is to be expected.
There is enough time left in the season for Tanaka to make two starts with the Yankees, though he told reporters one will be enough to give him peace of mind heading into the offseason. These final two starts are about testing the elbow and finding out whether he needs Tommy John surgery now or at some point in the future. The Yankees are out of the race, so it doesn’t matter if they win or lose his starts because he isn’t sharp.
Four doctors advised Tanaka and the Yankees to rehab the injury rather than go under the knife, which is what they’ve done. All the pitchers who have had complications following Tommy John surgery in the last year or two (Ryan Madson, Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, Daniel Hudson, Cory Luebke, Jarrod Parker, etc.) are a harsh reminder that the procedure isn’t fullproof. So far everything has gone well and hopefully that continues Sunday.
Let’s start with the obvious: the Yankees have struggled to score runs all season. This recent five-game skid is more of a 2014 skid than a five-game skid, though things have been especially bad since Friday. The Yankees have scored six runs total in their last five games, or one fewer run than the Angels scored in 3.2 innings against Hisashi Iwakuma last night. Iwakuma finished third in the AL Cy Young voting last year. In related news, the Halos became the first team to clinch a postseason spot last night.
The Yankees scored those six runs on four solo homers (Chris Young, Martin Prado, two by Brian McCann), a single by September call-up and minor league journeyman Antoan Richardson, and a steal of home against a rookie catcher. Richardson stole second and when Caleb Joseph tried to throw him out, Young trotted home. That’s all the offense since Friday. The Yankees were shut out twice, scored one run once, scored two runs once, and broke out for three runs on Saturday.
According to Katie Sharp, the six runs are the fewest the Yankees have scored in a five-game span since late-June/early-July way back in 1997. They’ve hit .175/.239/.271 as a team during these five games, which is so bad that I’m not even upset. I’m amazed more than anything. As I’m sure you know after watching these last few days, it takes a total team effort to be this feeble offensively in five straight games. Here’s a real quick breakdown of the team-wide offensive malaise:
- Jacoby Ellsbury: 2-for-21 (.095) with no walks or extra-base hits
- Martin Prado: 7-for-18 (.389) with a homer and no walks
- Brian McCann: 3-for-16 (.188) with two homers and two walks (.278 OBP)
- Chris Young: 4-for-15 (.267) with two doubles, a homer, and two walks (.353 OBP)
- Mark Teixeira: 2-for-14 (.143) with no extra-base hits and three walks (.294 OBP)
- Brett Gardner: 1-for-14 (.071) with two walks (.188 OBP)
- Derek Jeter: 0-for-11 with one walk (.083 OBP)
- Ichiro Suzuki and John Ryan Murphy: both 1-for-7 (.143) with a walk (.250 OBP)
- Everyone Else: 6-for-30 (.200) with no extra-base hits and one walk (.226 OBP)
Prado is playing on one good hamstring and he’s still the best hitter on the team. Naturally, his season is now over due to an emergency appendectomy. Young has had a nice run of late and I’m inclined to give McCann a pass for these last five games because his two solo homers account for one-third of the team’s total offense. The rest of them? Terrible. It’s not even a bad luck thing. Most of their at-bats are bad and their contact is weak. Subjectively, of course.
“As well as we’ve pitched, we didn’t need to be great (offensively). We just needed to be good. And we haven’t been,” said Gardner to Chad Jennings following last night’s loss. “You feel like you’re due at some point. I don’t feel like it’s been a couple of games. I feel like it’s been pretty much all season. We’ve had flashes of being pretty good, but for the most part, we’ve just struggled to get guys across the plate … It’s just really frustrating. Guys are working really hard. Guys are trying. Guys are putting in the effort. For one reason or another, we’re just not getting it done.”
The offense has gone stagnant and the Yankees were officially eliminated from the AL East race last night. They can be eliminated from the wildcard race as soon as Friday. This past weekend was their last gasp, their final opportunity make a run and start an improbable comeback, but instead the offense fell flat on its collective face. At a time when the Yankees needed their lineup to be at its absolute best, they responded with their lowest scoring five-game stretch in 17 years.
12:05pm: The Yankees officially announced Prado is done for the year following the appendectomy. He has been placed on the 60-day DL and utility man Jose Pirela was called up. Pirela, 24, hit .305/.351/.441 (117 wRC+) with ten homers and 15 steals with Triple-A Scranton this year. He was due to become a minor league free agent after the season and was a borderline 40-man roster candidate.
11:12am: Martin Prado will likely miss the remainder of the season after undergoing an emergency appendectomy, according to Meredith Marakovits. The season ends in 12 days and most players need several weeks to recover from an appendectomy, though Matt Holliday only missed seven games following the procedure a few years ago. Holliday is the exception, not the rule. The Yankees are out of the race and there’s no sense in rushing Prado back though. Let him heal up and get ready for next year.
One thing is very clear with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season: the Yankees need to improve their offense this offseason. They tried to do it last winter by signing Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Brian McCann to big free agent contracts (while simultaneously letting one of the best hitters in world leave) but it didn’t work. They’re on pace to score only 627 runs this year, 23 fewer than last year.
The Yankees are locked into players at catcher, first base, left field, center field, maybe third base, and either right field or DH already, so their options to fix the offense are limited. Martin Prado is going to play somewhere — I’d prefer second base until the inevitable Alex Rodriguez injury, but that’s just me — leaving shortstop and either right field or DH as the most obvious places to add an impact bat. There are slated to be plenty of free agent shortstops but not as many impact outfielders outside of Melky Cabrera and Nelson Cruz.
The free agent market is likely to add another potential impact outfield bat in the coming weeks, when MLB officially declares Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas a free agent. (It’s Yasmany, not Yasmani, apparently.) Jesse Sanchez and Ben Balder report that Tomas has already established residency in Haiti and has been unblocked by the Office of Foreign Assets Control, an important step needed to become a free agent. Badler says MLB should declare him a free to sign relatively soon.
Tomas, 23, defected back in June and he is scheduled to hold a showcase for scouts in the Dominican Republic this Saturday, according to Badler and Tomas. There’s no word on whether the Yankees (or any other team, for that matter) will be in attendance, but they’ve gone to see every other notable Cuban free agent at their workouts, so I expect them to be there just to do due diligence, at the very least. Here’s what we know about Tomas, first from Sanchez:
Tomas is known for his power and he has a reputation for launching long home runs, but he’s also prone to big swing and misses. He’s agile for his size, and he has a strong arm, but there is room for improvement on defense. As a result, he’s characterized as “high-risk, high-reward” type of player in some international scouting circles. He is said to be in much better physical shape and has worked on his approach at the plate since leaving the island.
And now from Badler:
At 6-foot-1, 230 pounds, Tomas is a righthanded hitter with plus-plus raw power, although with some swing-and-miss tendencies, and a strong arm that should fit in right field. A standout on Cuba’s 2013 World Baseball Classic team, Tomas hit .290/.346/.450 with six home runs, 21 walks and 46 strikeouts in 257 plate appearances this past season in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.
One scout told Nick Cafardo that Tomas will likely command upwards of $100M while Jay Alou, Tomas’ agent, told Jorge Ebro (translated article) he is shooting for a record deal this winter. The contracts for big name Cuban free agents are only getting bigger and bigger, going from Yoenis Cespedes ($36M) to Yasiel Puig ($42M) to Jose Abreu ($68M) to Rusney Castillo ($72M, the current record for an international position player), so I can totally buy the $100M number, especially since Tomas is several years younger than Abreu and Castillo. It doesn’t sound far-fetched.
The Yankees have an obvious need for a big right-handed power bat and they have room on the roster for right field-type heading into next season. They’ve begun showing more interest in Cuban players this year, reportedly spending much more time scouting Aledmys Diaz and Castillo than they did Cespedes and Puig, even inviting them down to Tampa for private workouts. They didn’t sign either guy but it wasn’t because they didn’t take the time to evaluate them. Like I said, I expect them to do the same with Tomas out of due diligence if nothing else.
The jury is still out on Castillo and Diaz (and Jorge Soler and Alex Guerrero), but Cespedes, Puig, and especially Abreu have all exceeded expectations so far. Alexei Ramirez, Leonys Martin, Jose Iglesias, and Adeiny Hechavarria have all been pretty much exactly what they were expected to be. Dayan Viciedo is the only notable disappointment among the current crop of Cuban big leaguers. We’re talking position players only here, not pitchers. This small sample of players suggests Cuban players have a pretty high success rate when it comes to being at least serviceable big leaguers.
Does that mean Tomas will work out? Of course not. His propensity to swing-and-miss is a concern, especially since the pitching in Cuba is pretty weak, but 70 power (which is what Badler said Tomas has back in June) is an unteachable skill. Unteachable like Cespedes’ and Abreu’s power or Puig’s freakish athleticism. It’s also a very rare and valuable skill in this era where the entire league seems to have forgotten how to hit. If you want to dream, maybe the big righty pop and swing-and-miss-ability means he’s Alfonso Soriano without the steals. That would be pretty great, actually. Soriano was awesome in his 20s.
I think one of the reasons the Yankees passed on Castillo was because he is an imperfect fit for the roster. (Whether that’s right or wrong is another matter.) He was billed as a leadoff hitter type with strong defense, and, well, the Yankees already have two of those guys in Brett Gardner and Ellsbury. A third isn’t necessary. Tomas profiles more as a middle of the order hitter and that’s something the Yankees desperately need. Add in the fact that he is only 23 (four years younger than Castillo), has a strong right field-caliber arm, and plays a position of need, and you’ve got a player who makes a lot more sense for New York going forward.
As always, information about these Cuban players is very limited. Everything I know about the guy is in this post. The number of teams that pursue Tomas when he becomes a free agent — Cespedes, Abreu, and Castillo (and Masahiro Tanaka, he was in a similar situation) all had multiple top dollar suitors while the Dodgers reportedly blew everyone out of the water for Puig — will tell us more about how teams view him than anything Baseball America publishes. Teams don’t go hard after nobodies. The Yankees went all-in on Tanaka because he was an ace in his mid-20s. If Tomas is a middle of the order hitter in his early-20s, then they need to go all-in on him as well.
For the second straight year, the Yankees will not be AL East champs. Monday night’s 1-0 walk-off loss to the Rays combined with the Orioles’ win over the Blue Jays eliminated New York from the division race. We all knew it was coming, but now it’s official.
What luck, we were treated to another pitcher’s duel on Monday night! Chris Capuano and Alex Colome traded zeroes for the first six innings — the only runner to reach third base in those innings was Mark Teixeira thanks to two singles (Tex and Carlos Beltran) and a wild pitch in the second inning — until the bullpens took over in the seventh, when they started trading zeroes for another few innings. The game remained scoreless until Ben Zobrist’s two-out walk-off single in the ninth.
The game-losing rally was a classic feeble offense rally. Shawn Kelley allowed a one-out ground ball single to Logan Forsythe, then a soft line drive single to center to James Loney. Kelley rebounded to strike out David DeJesus, but he was left in to face pinch-hitter Matt Joyce and that resulted in a walk to load the bases. Rich Hill was warming up in the bullpen and Joyce is dreadful against lefties (11 wRC+!), but Joe Girardi stuck with Kelley for whatever reason. Zobrist followed with a soft line drive single to right to win the game. Nothing fancy, just a pitch that got too much of the plate.
The Yankees had two good opportunities to score earlier in the game. The first came in that second inning, when they managed to put runners at second and third with one out on the singles by Teixeira and Beltran plus the Colome wild pitch. Ichiro Suzuki popped up to shortstop for the second out and John Ryan Murphy was unable to get the big two-out hit. An Ichiro hustle double and a Murphy walk put runners at first and second with two outs in the seventh, but pinch-hitter Brian McCann popped up to end the threat. Very weird. That never happens.
Tampa had two good chances to score a run of their own against Capuano. A single (Zobrist), a wild pitch, and a walk (Wil Myers) put runners at first and second with one out in the first, but Yunel Escobar flew out weakly. Then, in the fifth, a Zobrist leadoff walk and a Brandon Guyer one-out single put men at first and second. Evan Longoria and Myers followed with hard-hit fly balls pretty much right at Brett Gardner to end that rally. It wasn’t until Kelley walked Zobrist that the Rays had a runner reach third base.
Adam Warren rebounded from Friday’s blown save to retire all six batters he faced between Capuano and Kelley. Nice job by him. Kelley threw more balls (14) than strikes (13) and actually had his first real bad appearance in a month now. He allowed two runs total in his last 13 appearances. The Yankees suffered back-to-back walk-off losses for the first time since September 2011.
Chase Headley, who was playing in his first game since taking a pitch to the chin last week, was ejected in the middle of an at-bat in the seventh inning for arguing balls and strikes. Can’t say I blame him for wanting to check out of this game early. I was hoping Stephen Drew would come off the bench to hit the post-mid-at-bat ejection homerun a la Colin Curtis, but nope.
Prado had two hits while Teixeira, Beltran, Ichiro, and Brendan Ryan had one each. Teixeira and Murphy had the team’s two walks. The Yankees have now been shut out five times in their last 16 games and are 3-6 in their last nine games. They’ve scored six runs in their last 47 innings. They stink.
Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
For the box score and video highlights, head over to MLB.com. There are some other stats at FanGraphs and the updated standings are at ESPN. The Yankees will end the night either five games back (Royals lose) or six games back (Royals win) of the second wildcard spot. FanGraphs puts their postseason odds at 0.9%.
These same two teams will play game two of this three-game series on Tuesday night, unfortunately. Over/under on the number of scoreless innings to start that game is set at 5.5. Big Mike Pineda and Jake Odorizzi will be the pitching matchup.
Two weeks from now, the regular season will be over. There are only 14 games left in the Yankees’ season including tonight, and while they are mathematically still alive in the postseason race, they are an extreme long shot. In fact, a loss tonight coupled with an Orioles win over the Blue Jays would officially eliminate the Yankees from the AL East race. Let’s try to avoid that one more day, okay? Here is the Rays lineup and here is the Yankees lineup:
- CF Jacoby Ellsbury
- LF Brett Gardner
- 2B Martin Prado
- 1B Mark Teixeira
- DH Carlos Beltran
- 3B Chase Headley — first game back since being hit by the pitch in the chin last week
- RF Ichiro Suzuki
- C John Ryan Murphy
- SS Brendan Ryan
LHP Chris Capuano
It’s hot and humid in St. Petersburg, plus it’s been raining on and off all day. This is one of the days when the roof comes in handy. Tonight’s game is scheduled to begin at 7:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.
4:50pm: Joe Girardi told reporters it is “very possible” Tanaka will return to the rotation this weekend. They need to see how he feels the next few days before making any final decisions though.
2:30pm: Masahiro Tanaka threw a simulated game against a bunch of minor leaguers at the Yankees’ complex in Tampa today, as scheduled. He threw 65 pitches across five shutout innings, allowing six hits and no walks while striking out four. Chad Jennings has a recap of the action and says several of the hits were well-struck. Meredith Marakovits says Tanaka topped out at 92 mph.
Following the simulated game, Tanaka told reporters he felt good but is unsure if he is ready to pitch in a big league game. He wants to see how he feels in the coming days and will consult with the club before finalizing a plan going forward. Tanaka reportedly did not seem to be concerned about his performance because it wasn’t real game action. Dan Barbarisi interpreted his comments as “yeah, physically, I can pitch in the Majors next, but I don’t know how sharp I’m going to be,” for what it’s worth.
At this point there is only enough time for Tanaka to make two more appearances this season, assuming normal rest. That means two MLB games, two simulated games, or one simulated game and one MLB start. If he had come through today’s simulated game with zero problems, I think he would have started for the Yankees this coming weekend. But because he wasn’t sharp and sounds a little tentative, I’m guessing he’ll throw another simulated game in the coming days. Then again, the Yankees are out of the race and are only concerned the health of his elbow, not results.
Even though the list of September call-ups looked like a bunch of guys signed by the Long Island Ducks, the Yankees have gotten some real nice production from their extra players since rosters expanded two weeks ago. Antoan Richardson had a good weekend in Baltimore, Bryan Mitchell was solid in his first MLB start, and even Rich Hill has been very good since coming back, striking out six of nine batters faced. Chad Jennings ran down the September call-up situation yesterday.
The most productive extra player this month is ex-Mets outfielder Chris Young, who has gone 10-for-27 (.370) with four doubles and three homeruns in pinstripes. He hit a walk-off homer against the Rays last Thursday (after breaking up Alex Cobb’s no-hitter with a double in the eighth inning) and hit a go-ahead homer in the tenth inning against the Orioles in the first game of Friday’s doubleheader, though the bullpen couldn’t protect the lead. Young has also played very good defense despite being relatively new to left and right fields. He’s done all that for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Not bad at all.
The Yankees already have a full starting outfield heading into next season — I am in the camp that wants to see Carlos Beltran become a most of the time DH, but I’m not convinced that will actually happen just yet — but they will need to bring in a fourth outfielder. Ichiro Suzuki is due to become a free agent and I don’t think the Yankees will re-sign him, and while Martin Prado can play the outfield in a pinch, they’re still going to need one dedicated player to back up all three outfield spots. That’s just someone a team needs to have on the roster.
Since both Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are lefties and Beltran is a switch-hitter with much better numbers against righties (118 wRC+ vs. RHP and 54 wRC+ vs. LHP), next year’s fourth outfielder should be a right-handed hitter just to balance things out. Another righty bat has been a need since Opening Day, really. It goes without saying good speed, good defense, and the ability to play all three outfield spots would be preferred as well. Bench players are bench players for a reason though, and that’s because they aren’t good enough to start. Usually they can only do a few of those things and are lacking somewhere.
The Yankees don’t have a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder option in the organization — Ramon Flores is on the 40-man roster but is a left-handed hitter, and Tyler Austin will be added to the 40-man this winter but is unlikely to skip over Triple-A — so they’ll have to go outside the organization for this player. Chris Denorfia, Jonny Gomes, and Scott Hairston are all due to become free agents this offseason and they’ve filled this role to a T just about their entire careers. All have their pluses and minuses.
Young is a different story though. He was an everyday center fielder with the Diamondbacks from 2006-12 before moving into a platoon role with the Athletics last year. The Mets played him nearly everyday before releasing him, so, for most of his career, Young has been an everyday player, not a bench guy. He does check all the right boxes though: right-handed hitter, good power, good speed, and good defense in all three outfield spots. Young is a low average hitter (.234 career, 22.6 K%), so that’s his flaw. Otherwise he looks like someone who could be a fourth outfielder option next year.
Now, there are two sides to every free agent signing. There is no doubt Young is hoping his strong September with the Yankees will make teams forget what he did in Flushing and land him a starting outfield spot somewhere. He’s going to have to settle for a one-year contract no matter what, so he’ll look for the best opportunity and the most playing time this winter. Is being a fourth outfielder in the Bronx the best situation for Young? Maybe it is. It all depends on the offers that come his way in the offseason. For what it’s worth, Young told Buster Olney (subs. req’d) that he’s “having a blast (with the Yankees). I don’t know if I’ve ever had more fun. Hopefully it’s a new start of better things to come.”
The Yankees already have close to $170M tied up in only ten players next year (not counting arbitration cases) and Hal Steinbrenner has held the line with payroll in recent years, somewhere around the $200M mark. That might change after missing the postseason for a second straight year, and don’t necessarily mean an increase either. Paying Young starter money — the Mets gave him one year and $7.25M — to be a fourth outfielder probably isn’t an option and shouldn’t be anyway. The Yankees gave Andruw Jones one year and $2M a few years ago and that’s good money for a fourth outfielder. That’s probably the max the team can offer Young to stay around.
Finding a right-handed complement for their left-handed heavy outfield will be on the shopping list this winter, and the Yankees are getting a firsthand look at what Young offers right now. I don’t necessarily mean on the field either — I doubt a month of playing time will drastically change their opinion of him — they’ll also get to see his work ethic, how he interacts with teammates in the clubhouse, stuff like that. The stuff that you usually can’t find out until after signing a player. Young does make sense for the fourth outfielder spot next year and not just because of his strong last week or so. Whether that position is appealing to him is another matter entirely.
It’s September, which means a heavy intra-division schedule and two series against the Rays in the span of a week. The Yankees are in Tampa to start a three-game set tonight. They’re 7-9 against the Rays this year, including 4-3 at Tropicana Field. Since their elimination number is two, the Yankees would be mathematically eliminated from the AL East race if they lose the series regardless of what the Orioles do.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Rays beat the Blue Jays in extra innings yesterday and took two of three in Toronto this weekend. They lost two of three to the Yankees in New York last week, as you may remember. Overall, Tampa Bay is 72-78 with a +4 run differential, leaving them in fourth place in the AL East and five games back of the Yankees.
Manager Joe Maddon’s offense averages 3.85 runs per game with a team 100 wRC+, which is weird. A 100 wRC+ is exactly league average but the runs per game rate is about half-a-run below average. Timing is important, I guess. OF Desmond Jennings (104 wRC+) is their only injured position player and he is done for the season with a knee problem.
As has been the case the last half-decade or so, Maddon’s lineup revolves around 2B/OF Ben Zobrist (119 wRC+) and 3B Evan Longoria (107 wRC+). Longoria is having a good year but a down year compared to his usual standards. 1B James Loney (109 wRC+) has been solid overall but the Yankees can’t seem to get him out. OF Wil Myers (83 wRC+) has been both injured and ineffective this year. OF Matt Joyce (114 wRC+) and OF Kevin Kiermaier (120 wRC+) have both been comfortably above-average.
SS Yunel Escobar (94 wRC+) plays everyday and OF Brandon Guyer (109 wRC+) platoons against lefties. C Ryan Hanigan (98 wRC+) and C Jose Molina (23 wRC+) split time behind the plate. UTIL Sean Rodriguez (100 wRC+), OF David DeJesus (131 wRC+ in limited time), and UTIL Logan Forsythe (81 wRC+) have been Maddon’s regular bench players this summer. C Curt Casali and IF Nick Franklin are the September call-ups.
Monday: LHP Chris Capuano (vs. TB) vs. RHP Alex Colome (vs. NYY)
The Durham Bulls, Tampa’s Triple-A affiliate, was eliminated from the postseason over the weekend, and the 25-year-old Colome is one of several players who will be called up today. He has spent most of the year hurt or in Triple-A — Colome made one start and one relief appearance for the Rays earlier this year (three runs in 9.2 innings) — where he had a 3.77 ERA (3.25 FIP) in 15 starts and 86 innings. His strikeout (7.64 K/9 and 19.8 K%) and walk (3.14 BB/9 and 8.1 BB%) rates were okay and hitters were completely unable to take him deep (0.21 HR/9). Colome sits in the mid-90s with his four-seam fastball and his top secondary pitch is a mid-80s changeup. He’ll throw a handful of upper-80s cutters and low-80s curveballs per start, but the fastball/changeup combination is his bread-and-butter. Neither of Colome’s big league outings earlier this year were against the Yankees.
Tuesday: RHP Michael Pineda (vs. TB) vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi (vs. NYY)
Odorizzi, 24, has a 4.08 ERA (3.69 FIP) in 29 starts and 159 innings this year, thanks mostly to his elite strikeout rate (9.51 K/9 and 24.9 K%). His walk (3.11 BB/9 and 8.1 BB%), homer (1.08 HR/9 and 9.0 HR/FB%), and ground ball (30.7%) rates are less impressive. Righties (.314 wOBA) have had a little more success against Odorizzi than lefties (.296 wOBA), and he’s been much better at home (.248 wOBA) than on the road (.379 wOBA). Odorizzi uses a straight four-seamer right around 90 mph to set up his mid-80s slider, which is his top breaking ball. He’ll throw a handful of mid-80s changeups and big-breaking upper-60s curveballs per start. The Yankees hammered Odorizzi for six runs in 4.1 innings last week.
Wednesday: RHP Brandon McCarthy (vs. TB) vs. RHP Alex Cobb (vs. NYY)
The 26-year-old Cobb has taken over as Tampa’s ace now that David Price has been traded away. He has a 2.75 ERA (3.06 FIP) in 24 starts and 147.1 innings this year — Cobb missed several weeks with an oblique strain in the first half — with very good to great strikeout (8.43 K/9 and 22.9 K%), walk (2.57 BB/9 and 7.0 BB%), homerun (0.55 HR/9 and 7.8 HR/FB%), and ground ball (56.1%) rates. Righties (.292 wOBA) have had more luck against him than lefties (.247 wOBA) because of his knockout mid-80s changeup. Cobb throws his two and four-seamers in the low-90s and he’ll also throw a bunch of low-80s curveballs. As you may remember, he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees last week.
Although Maddon won’t come out and admit it, LHP Jake McGee (1.71 FIP) has taken over as Tampa’s closer these last few weeks. They had been using a committee for a while. McGee blew the save yesterday, like he did last week when he served up Chris Young‘s walk-off homer. RHP Grant Balfour (4.13 FIP), RHP Brad Boxberger (2.87 FIP), and RHP Joel Peralta (3.64 FIP) all see setup innings. McGee, Balfour, and Peralta all pitched yesterday.
Middle relievers RHP Brandon Gomes (4.57 FIP) and RHP Kirby Yates (3.59 FIP) have been in the bullpen just about all summer, ditto long man LHP Cesar Ramos (4.30 FIP). LHP Jeff Beliveau, RHP Steve Geltz, and LHP C.J. Riefenhauser are the extra September arms. Gomes and Beliveau both pitched briefly yesterday. Head over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of Joe Girardi‘s bullpen. I can’t imagine David Robertson will be available tonight and probably not tomorrow night either. The Process Report is the definitive Rays analysis on the web.